Month: November 2023

Asbarez: Investor Storms Jerusalem Patriarchate Garden in Defiance of Real Estate Deal Cancelation

Emil Lazarian
by Asbarez Staff

 

 November 6, 2023

 

in Featured Main, Latest, News, Top Stories

Israelis affiliated with a real estate venture storm Jerusalem Patriachate


The investor who sought to lease 25 percent of the Armenian Quarter of Jerusalem has ignored a letter by the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem cancelling the controversial real estate deal and has started demolition, the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem warned Monday.

The Jerusalem Patriarchate announced last week that it was canceling the deal after fallout from the community, as well as a warning from the governments of Jordan and Palestine, who legally have control over the Armenian Quarter.

The Patriarchate said on Monday that the investor did not provide a legal response to the Patriarchate’s letter from last week and instead began demolishing walls and a parking lot adjacent to the property, the Patriarchate Chancellery said in a statement.

Jerusalem religious leaders stand firm on the grounds of the Patriarchate building

“Yesterday they even brought security guards armed with high powered rifles and tactically trained dogs demanding an evacuation of Armenians from the parking lot. As a reaction to this, the Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem, members of the St. James Brotherhood, and members of the Armenian community, gathered in the Armenian Gardens and peacefully expressed their discontent. After a few hours, the two sides agreed to disperse until the Patriarchate receives an answer to their sent cancellation letter,” the Chancellery added.

At around 3 p.m. local time on Sunday afternoon, a group of Israeli extremist settlers entered the Armenian Quarter’s park, known as the Cow’s Pasture, where the Armenian community members had gathered to prevent further illegal demolition of the interior walls, the Save the ArQ Movement reported.

Danny Rothman and George Warwar, representatives of Xana Capital, backed with about 15 armed settlers and attack dogs, demanded the expulsion of Armenians, calling it their land. Warwar threatened the community, exclaiming that he’ll “get them one by one.” The settlers were also active, announcing that the Armenians are all “Goys [foreigners] and when the Messiah comes, [they] will all die.”

The Armenian community refused to back down and stood firmly on the rightfully owned property.

The Save the ArQ Movement community leaders, Hagop Djernazian and Setrag Balian, and the legal team, led by international lawyer Karnig Kerkonian, convened an emergency meeting and a member of the team, Eitan Peleg, arrived on scene to negotiate the stand down.

Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem Archbishop Nourhan Manougian also arrived on the scene and stood side by side with the Armenian community of Jerusalem, along with priests and bishops. The community stood strong, with 200 members in unity to prevent the takeover and to save the Armenian Quarter.

Last week the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem announced that a letter was sent on October 26 to Xana Gardens Ltd. whereby the Patriarchate informed Xana Gardens of the cancellation of the agreement signed in August 2021 regarding the Armenian Gardens in the Old City, Jerusalem.

The Yerevan-based Tatoyan Foundation, established by Armenia’s former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan, has been involved in the issue and together with the U.S.-based Kerkonian-Dajani law firm, attorney Garo Ghazarian and the Center for Law and Justice contacted community leaders and began monitoring the situation to quell any unrest.

In June, a group of attorneys and advisers led by the Kerkonian-Dajani firm headed a fact-finding mission, in which the Tatoyan Foundation and the Center for Law and Justice also participated.

Before that mission, alerts were received from the Armenian community in Jerusalem that a hotel and entertainment facility would be built in the Armenian grounds known as “Cows’ Garden,” and the residents who historically live in the area of the St. James Armenian Monastery would be evicted from the adjacent neighborhoods. Further, they found that the museum of the Armenian neighborhood would also be seriously threatened and the cemetery would be displaced.

Based on the evidence gathered during the fact-funding mission, the legal team prepared a 184-page report that included substantial evidence which formed the basis for the first in a series of legal remedies initiated, and more to be pursued in due course, the Tatoyan foundation reported.

Armenian-Azerbaijan Peace Might Finally Be on the Table

Ani Tigranian
FP – Foreign Policy
Nov 3 2023

By Eugene Chausovsky, a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute.

As fighting rages in the Middle East and Ukraine, another conflict-ridden region adjacent to both war zones may be on the precipice of a long-elusive peace. That region is the South Caucasus, where diplomatic efforts are underway between Armenia and Azerbaijan to strike a peace agreement following Azerbaijan’s victory in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. But the two are not operating in isolation: The conflict involves many of the same external players as both the Israeli-Hamas and Ukrainian conflicts—including Iran, Turkey, Russia, the European Union, and the United States. That makes the pathway to peace a challenging, interconnected road to maneuver.

The road to peace here may be quite literal. On Oct. 26, while at a summit in Tbilisi, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced an initiative known as the Crossroads for Peace, which calls for building transport connections to each of Armenia’s neighbors—Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. The inclusion of the latter two is most notable, given that it was less than two months previous that Azerbaijan launched military operations to seize Nagorno-Karabakh with Turkey’s support, thus giving Baku complete territorial control over the long-disputed region.

The South Caucasus is one of the world’s least connected regions, both for geographic and political reasons. Mountainous and on the fringes of larger powers, numerous local and regional conflicts have also stifled trade and connectivity. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have long been closed due to the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, giving Yerevan only limited trade connections to Georgia, and by extension Russia, to the north and Iran to the south. In the meantime, Azerbaijan’s connections to its allies in Turkey and even its own exclave of Nakhchivan have been highly curtailed, with its western-bound exports of energy supplies relying exclusively on transit through Georgia.

Now, the issue of territorial control over Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer functionally in play, with the vast majority of the region’s ethnic Armenian residents seeking refuge in Armenia proper, while the region’s self-declared government announced that it would “cease to exist” as of Jan 1. As challenging as that has been for Armenians from both a humanitarian and political standpoint, it has removed one of the largest obstacles to peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially as Yerevan’s primary security patron—Russia—has made clear it will not be coming to Armenia’s defense on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

This has unlocked the potential for both peace and the long-sought economic connectivity that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been attempting to foster. Previously, those efforts were made separately and often in contradiction with one another’s aims, such as Azerbaijan’s pursuit of the so-called Zangezur corridor to build road, rail, and energy connections to both Nakhchivan and Turkey through southern Armenia without a political understanding with Yerevan. Armenia was opposed to such a route, and while the status of Nagorno-Karabakh was up in the air, this was a point of contention between Baku and Yerevan. This became a politically charged issue on the domestic front in both countries, one that was manipulated by external players such as Russia and Iran.

Now, that calculus appears to have changed. Following Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku appears more interested in following through with building economic connections than seizing more territory. In part, this is a legal and political issue—the same grounds that Baku used to justify its actions in Nagorno-Karabakh (which has been an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan), would be undermined if it aimed to gain further territory in Armenia proper by force. But it is also a practical issue, as economic projects would be more secure with Armenia’s diplomatic cooperation and participation rather than they would be with resistance from Yerevan.

This is what makes the unveiling of Pashinyan’s Crossroads for Peace initiative so important. The initiative both acknowledges the principle of territorial integrity, which would be crucial for any peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku, while also proposing specific connectivity projects, such as the construction and restoration of pipelines, road, rail, cables, and electricity lines between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and beyond

Pashinyan emphasized the mutual benefits of such an initiative to countries throughout the region, while the fact that high level figures from Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran were present at the summit, along with Armenian and Georgian counterparts, underscores the groundwork that has been laid on this issue. At the same time, Azerbaijan has dropped the Zangezur corridor proposal in favor of routes through Iran. No less importantly, Pashinyan stated during his speech that a normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be “successfully completed in the coming months.”

Nevertheless, there are many potential hurdles to this initiative and the broader peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan that underpins it. Notably absent from the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum were representatives from Russia. Relations between Yerevan and Moscow have significantly soured over Russia’s refusal to intervene on Armenia’s behalf in Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, Armenian officials have explicitly criticized Russia’s stance in the war, refused to participate in several forums hosted by Russia, and signed agreements on military and security cooperation with France, a NATO member.

This is significant, given that Russia would not be happy with projects in the Caucasus that exclude its participation, particularly in energy, since Azerbaijan has sought to increase its natural gas exports to Europe as the continent diversifies from Russia. And while Moscow has lost a lot of ground in the Caucasus amid its focus on the Ukrainian war effort and Turkey’s rise in the region, the Kremlin has proved to be willing and able to sow chaos and act as a disruptive force in theaters throughout Eurasia and beyond where its interests are not met.

Besides the Russian challenge, other factors could prove disruptive to normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan and connectivity efforts within the broader region. This could include political elements from within Armenia and its diaspora communities in countries such as France and the United States that are opposed to reconciliation with Azerbaijan, as well as any rhetoric from Azerbaijani officials that could perceived as threatening wider aggression. Additionally, there are thorny and politically sensitive issues for both sides, including border delimitation and mine clearance. Other conflicts could also spill into the region, especially given Russia’s prominent role there.

Despite all of these potential hurdles, there is a real chance for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which could significantly enhance the connectivity of the region to the benefit of millions of people. This, in turn, could unlock further connections to a Trans-Caspian corridor to Central Asia, which would only be strengthened by the participation and increased investment from key players such as the United States and EU, as detailed in a recently released New Lines Institute report.

All of this will take delicate maneuvering and strategic decision-making by the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan to mitigate the risks and seize the opportunities at a critical time, both in their bilateral relationship and in their relationship with influential actors throughout the region.

Eugene Chausovsky is a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute. Chausovsky previously served as senior Eurasia analyst at the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor for more than 10 years. His work focuses on political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/03/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-nagorno-karabakh-economic-connectivity/

Armenia Faces Russia’s Economic Might As Tensions Rise

Emil Lazarian
Nov 2 2023
By Eurasianet - Nov 01, 2023, 2:00 PM CDT

  • Armenia relies significantly on Russia, with 40% of its exports going there and vast dependence on Russian basic goods, gas infrastructure, and labor remittances.
  • Russia's recent decision to postpone recognizing Armenian driver's licenses is seen as a political maneuver and a signal of potential economic sanctions.
  • While trade between Armenia and Russia has grown, much of the increase is due to Armenia re-exporting Western goods to Russia, deepening Yerevan's economic ties and potential vulnerabilities.

Armenia's relations with its strategic partner Russia are getting worse and worse and its leaders seem to desire a shift in geopolitical orientation towards the West. 

But a look at Russia's powerful levers over the country makes that kind of thinking seem delusional. 

And Moscow has begun dropping hints of how much economic pain it can inflict on Armenians. 

Armenian officials offer assurances that all is fine on the economic front, but economists and businesspeople are increasingly worried about possible consequences of the political tensions.

About 40 percent of Armenia's exports go to Russia, and Yerevan's dependence on Russia for basic goods is overwhelming. 

Gazprom Armenia, the local subsidiary of the Russian state gas company, owns all of the country's gas distribution infrastructure. Imports from Russia of grain and petroleum products also enjoy a near monopoly. 

Armenia's economy is heavily dependent on migrant laborers sending their wages back home from Russia. In 2022 money transfers from Russia accounted for 3.6 billion dollars out of the total 5.1 billion entering the country.

Warning shot fired

On 24 October the lower house of the Russian legislature, the Duma, postponed debate on a bill that would have recognized Armenian driver's licenses for business and labor purposes. The move was widely seen in Armenia as politically motivated and a hint of the economic sanctions that Moscow could implement in a bid to bring its wayward junior partner to heel. 

 In fact, Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin all but directly said that the decision was linked to what he called the Armenian government's failure to take steps toward granting official status to the Russian language.

 Many Armenian labor migrants find work in Russia in the service industry, including as taxi drivers. They have long sought relief from bureaucratic headaches through the recognition of Armenian driver's licenses. Now that seems less likely than ever. 

Economist Suren Parsyan believes the Russian MPs' decision amounts to a "warning shot."

"This is just a gesture for now, one that could be followed by harsher measures if political relations deteriorate," Parsyan told Eurasianet. 

Economic dependency grows

The steady worsening of political ties between Armenia and Russia has had an inverse relationship with the two countries' growing economic cooperation over the past year and half or so. (Eurasianet reported on the same trend in April.)

After the U.S. and EU imposed sanctions against Moscow over its war on Ukraine, Armenia became one of several countries through which Western products have been entering Russia. 

In 2022 the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia nearly doubled, reaching 5.3 billion dollars, according to Armenia's state statistics agency. Armenia's exports to Russia nearly tripled, from 850 million dollars in 2021 to 2.4 billion dollars the following year. Imports from Russia were up 151 percent, reaching 2.87 billion dollars. 

The trend continues apace. The total trade volume for January-August, 2023 surpassed 4.16 billion dollars, a record level since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Exports from Armenia to Russia in this period totaled 2.3 billion dollars and for the first time exceeded the import figure, which stood at 1.86  billion dollars.

Unsurprisingly, most of Armenia's exports to Russia these days are in fact re-exports of Western products that Moscow is no longer able to get directly. 

Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan recently framed the centrality of re-export in the structure of trade with Russia in stark terms: He said that while exports to Russia were up 215 percent for the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, re-export accounted for 187 percentage points of this growth while exports of Armenian products accounted for just 28 percentage points. 

The overall effect is that, since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has greatly strengthened its positions in Armenia's economy. And many worry that this growing dependence on Russia could greatly limit Armenia's room for maneuver in the political arena.

"The fact that 55-56 percent of exports to Russia are not raw materials but finished goods, speaks to Armenia's high degree of dependence. And in these conditions, if Moscow introduces sanctions, they will be very painful for Armenia," said Suren Parsyan, the economist, adding that there is little prospect for redirecting these goods to Western markets. 

"Quality standards are different there. It would require overhauling whole sectors of the economy, which is a complicated and time-consuming process. And during this time many businesses would close, which would cause growth in unemployment and a worsening of the overall social-economic situation," Parsyan said.

He added that he has not seen any real attempts by the Armenian authorities to diversify the country's economic relations and reduce its dependence on Russia. 

Economics not influencing politics

There is no sign that Armenia's increased economic cooperation with Russia is having any influence on the growing political crisis between the two countries, according to analyst and director of the Caucasus Institute, Aleksandr Iskandaryan.

He pointed to Prime Minister Pashinyan's recent statement that Armenia does not intend to change its foreign policy vector despite its displeasure with Moscow's refusal to support Yerevan in the conflict with Azerbaijan as well as Pashinyan's recent remark to The Wall Street Journal that Armenia does not benefit from the presence of roughly 10,000 Russian soldiers on its territory. 

"The thing is that, so far, this crisis has not gone beyond the level of discourse. There have been no institutional changes in Armenian-Russian relations. They [such changes] are spoken about, they're discussed, but Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Union. If and when relations deteriorate at the institutional level, interactions will deteriorate at the institutional level as well," Iskandaryan told Eurasianet. 

By Arshaluis Mgdesyan via Eurasianet.org

Skewed Armenia-Azerbaijan Policy Fails to Serve Interests of U.S. and California

David Nargizian
Times of San Diego
Nov 1 2023

by Jacob Kamaras

When it comes to Eurasia’s South Caucasus region, the _expression_ “to the victor belong the spoils” seemingly does not apply in foreign policy circles.

Today, the victor in Karabakh overwhelmingly receives condemnation, including from the U.S. government and California lawmakers.

Azerbaijan’s September victory in Karabakh — completing the liberation of formerly Armenia-occupied territories that began with Armenia’s surrender in the nations’ 44-day war in 2020 — is persistently met with accusations of “forcible displacement,” “ethnic cleansing,” and even “genocide.” Commentators lament how Karabakh’s “fight for independence” has ended.

The Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues, which includes California-based U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff and David Valadao, last month accused Azerbaijan of “implementing a genocidal campaign against the Armenian people of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Schiff later introduced a resolution to require the State Department to report on the human rights practices of Azerbaijan, repeating the accusation that the country is “actively engaged in ethnic cleansing or genocide.”

Yet as 100,000 Armenians recently departed the region, such claims are devoid of both historical context and present realities on the ground.

According to the U.N. Human Rights Council, Azerbaijan hosts more than 650,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), largely resulting from Armenia’s three-decade-long occupation of Karabakh — which four U.N. Security Council resolutions repeatedly reaffirm is Azerbaijani territory. As the narrative of Armenian displacement dominates today’s headlines, these Azerbaijani refugees are continuously forgotten.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, in a call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan “reaffirmed U.S. support for Armenia’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” USAID Administrator Samantha Power has used the same language. This means that longstanding State Department policy, which explicitly “supports the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” and “does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country,” is disregarded at Foggy Bottom.

These double standards on IDPs and territorial integrity reflect an American policy rooted in a spur-of-the-moment reaction to the current situation, ignoring more than 30 years of history in the region.

What occurred in Karabakh from the early 1990s until 2020? It was Azerbaijanis, in fact, who were killed en masse and displaced within their country’s internationally recognized border.

Armenia’s occupation was marked by not only neglect but intentional destruction of the area — which remains painfully visible today through looted homes, mosques (including those that were used to house livestock), and cemeteries, and what U.N. experts estimate to be more than 1 million explosive devices in the area. What had once been a lush green area with vineyards as well as thriving wheat and cotton production prior to the occupation was decimated, as springs were blocked to divert water for military purposes.

Subsequently, what occurred between Azerbaijan’s victories in 2020 and 2023? When Armenia’s military had several weeks to withdraw from Karabakh following their surrender in the 2020 war, they used the time to plant difficult-to-detect explosives such as remote-controlled and plastic mines, posing threats to Azerbaijan’s redevelopment of Karabakh and the return of Azerbaijani IDPs to peaceful life in their homes.

Armenia has used the Lachin road — the road connecting Armenia with Karabakh — to transport landmines and plant them in the territory of Azerbaijan. At the same time, Azerbaijan faced widespread accusations that it had closed the Lachin road, even while it kept the road open to Armenians for humanitarian purposes.

The current U.S. administration and California lawmakers, however, have echoed the Armenian perspective to the detriment of international law and American interests. In contrast to his supportive words for Pashinyan, Blinken asked Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev “to refrain from further hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide unhindered humanitarian access.”

Azerbaijan remains the key to U.S. national interests in the region as the administration navigates the complexities of policy toward Russia, China, and Iran. But Washington fails to give Baku the attention it deserves.

It must be asked: What is driving U.S. policy in the South Caucasus? Is it religion, given Armenia’s predominantly Christian population and Azerbaijan’s Muslim majority (though with strong interfaith and secular traditions)? Might it be partisan politics, shaped by the support Armenia receives from Congressional Democrats and its sizable diaspora in the blue state of California? And how does this skewed policy advance American and Californian interests?

It is incumbent upon U.S. and California leaders to understand that the world is watching their response in the South Caucasus. Regrettably, America’s allies and adversaries alike are witnessing a policy that practices double standards, lacks a moral compass, and fails to acknowledge decades of context in the region.

Americans are likely to be left with more questions than answers. Yet in the absence of a clear understanding of the administration’s motivation, the least they should expect of Washington is a balanced approach. Only then can the U.S. live up to its promise as a trustworthy broker of an enduring peace in the South Caucasus.

Jacob Kamaras is the editor and publisher of the San Diego Jewish World, the former editor-in-chief of the Jewish News Syndicate, and the founder of Stellar Jay Communications, a PR firm representing Azerbaijan.

Armenia is an Isolated Democracy in Crisis

Liana Toganian
The National Interest
Nov 1 2023

If the United States and its democratic partners fail to stand with Yerevan and stand up to Baku, the broader consequences for the region could be dire.

by Mark Dietzen

Time is running out to protect the rule by law from rule by force in Europe’s southeastern frontier. Azerbaijan’s takeover of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh—resulting in the mass exodus of its native Armenian inhabitants and the dissolution of the enclave’s institutions—signals a dangerous trend in the South Caucasus. Armenia now faces a dual threat of further external aggression and greater internal strife. Without support from the United States and other democracies, Armenia’s democratic gains may be at risk—and the government may be pulled further into the autocratic orbit of the Kremlin.

A predominantly ethnic Armenian region that has been an object of contention for centuries, Nagorno-Karabakh, enjoyed special autonomous status within Soviet Azerbaijan. During the final years of the Soviet Union, Armenians fought to secede from Azerbaijan, winning the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, resulting in the formation of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh, the historical Armenian name for the region. The entity has never been internationally recognized. 

Over the next three decades, neighboring Armenia provided pivotal security assistance and economic access to the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and the region existed as a de facto independent state within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. A tenuous ceasefire held for much of that time, albeit with frequent skirmishes along the border. 

In 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out, claiming an estimated 7,000 lives over six weeks. This time, Azerbaijan emerged the victor, taking large swaths of territory and surrounding the remaining Armenian-controlled regions, save for a single corridor with Armenia. Russian peacekeepers oversaw a brittle ceasefire agreement, which included significant Armenian concessions. Two years later, Azerbaijan orchestrated a nine-month blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, severing its access to Armenia and the rest of the world. Food, medicine, and other crucial supplies became critically low, forcing the population to live in increasingly dire conditions. Baku even blocked Red Cross humanitarian aid to Nagorno-Karabakh in breach of all international agreements. 

This was merely a prelude to September’s brutal seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, undertaken in violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement. Azerbaijan has demanded that the Armenians choosing to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh “reintegrate” into the Azerbaijani state, with President Ilham Aliyev claiming that “all their rights will be guaranteed.” Given Azerbaijan’s years of state-sponsored demonization of Armenians, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh were not inclined to believe his promise. As a result, nearly all of the 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh fled to Armenia over two weeks.

The government of Azerbaijan has not only violated international law and established diplomatic agreements—its actions pose an existential threat to Armenia’s democracy. If the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh is not met with an adequate global response, President Aliyev and fellow autocrats will be encouraged to continue to use force to achieve political ends. 

There are growing concerns in Armenia that Azerbaijan may again attempt to use force to install a so-called “Zangezur Corridor” across sovereign Armenian territory, which would link Azerbaijan with its landlocked region, Nakhchivan, which lies between Armenia, Iran, and Turkey. In addition to violating Armenia’s sovereignty, this could cut off Armenia from its southern border with Iran. There is precedent for this fear: In 2021, President Aliyev even went so far as to threaten to install such a corridor “whether Armenia likes it or not.”

Crucially, Azerbaijan enjoys the backing of Turkey, while Russia—Armenia’s traditional protector—has been missing in action. This is due in part to the Kremlin’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and frustration with Armenia’s westward shift, as evidenced by Yerevan’s accession to the International Criminal Court last month in defiance of Moscow. During his speech at the UN General Assembly on September 19—the day Azerbaijan began its takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh—Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on Armenia to open the “Zangezur Corridor.” Then, on September 25, Aliyev and Erdoğan met in Nakhchivan, where President Aliyev indirectly referenced a corridor through Armenia. 

This development would undoubtedly have wider geopolitical consequences. Armenia would risk losing access to its southern border with Iran since Azerbaijan would have the ability to close the corridor, as it did at Lachin in Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a scenario could leave just one of Armenia’s international borders—Georgia—open to trade. If this happens, Russia’s interest in the conflict could be reactivated, as the Kremlin is reluctant to lose its South Caucasus link to Iran, which could lead Russia to increase its military presence in Armenia. 

External threats combined with internal tensions could put severe pressure on Prime Minister Pashinyan, who has steered Armenia in a westward direction since taking office in 2018. The sudden influx of an enormous population of refugees poses major political and economic challenges for Armenia. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s government will no doubt face angry questions about why Karabakh was lost and must be prepared to offer reassurances that Azerbaijan will be held accountable for this outrage. 

Armenians will need affirmation that the government can provide for their security following Russia’s failure to stop Azerbaijan’s seizure of Karabakh despite the Russian peacekeepers stationed there. What’s more, there is a threat that a deteriorating security environment could erode the government’s progress in strengthening democratic institutions if illiberal voices can exploit the situation to win political power and restore Armenia’s dependence on Russia.

The democratic world has a clear interest in ensuring that Armenia’s democracy survives this crisis and that Azerbaijan’s actions are justly punished. To begin with, robust humanitarian assistance must be provided for Armenian refugees. During a recent fact-finding mission to the region, USAID Administrator Samantha Power promised $11.5 million in humanitarian assistance. This is a good start, but significant humanitarian assistance will need to be sustained over the coming months—and even years—to help refugees transition to their new lives in Armenia. 

The United States and other democracies must also prioritize programs that support Armenia’s further democratic progress, including efforts to strengthen the rule of law, continue legislative reforms, and advance citizen-centered governance. Additionally, as Yerevan works to resettle tens of thousands of newly arrived refugees, support will be needed to assist them in preparing proper documentation of the human rights violations inflicted during their exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh. These records are vital to any future legal action against Azerbaijan. 

Washington and Brussels must also demonstrate their commitment to Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Holding Azerbaijan accountable for its outrageous violation of international law must be the first step. Punitive sanctions should be imposed on Azerbaijan, including its senior leadership, making it clear that aggression against Armenia will come at a high cost. U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan should also be suspended immediately. In the interest of a long-term settlement, the United States and EU should also dispatch senior envoys to Ankara to engage Turkey in international efforts to resolve outstanding issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan through political dialogue. 

Finally, the United States and its democratic partners should engage Yerevan in new strategic discussions, which include opportunities to deepen security cooperation, following the first-ever U.S.-Armenia bilateral military exercises in September. Russian troops will soon leave Nagorno-Karabakh, but their presence in Armenia will continue until Yerevan has reliable security alternatives. We must pursue a long-term strategy that reorients Armenia away from Russia and towards the community of democracies. 

Armenia’s democracy is in danger. If the United States and its democratic partners fail to stand with Yerevan and stand up to Baku, the broader consequences for the region could be dire. Strong political, economic, and security support will be crucial to ensuring that Armenia can continue on the path of democracy and that autocrats in Baku and beyond think twice before pursuing further acts of aggression. 

Mark Dietzen is the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) resident program director in Vilnius, Lithuania, where he leads IRI’s Belarus and Baltic-Eurasia Inter-Parliamentary Training Institute (BEIPTI) programs. He previously led non-profit, democratic development efforts in Nagorno-Karabakh. The views expressed are solely those of the author.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/armenia-isolated-democracy-crisis-207134

German top diplomat visits Armenia and Azerbaijan on crisis mission

Vatche Chakhmakhchian
MSN
Nov 4 2023

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is calling for a rapid continuation of the peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the mediation of EU Council President Charles Michel.

"People throughout the region are hoping for peace. This requires a willingness for the benefit of all Azerbaijanis and Armenians to find a new way of living together," the Green party politician said on Saturday after talks with her Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in the capital Baku.

This was the only way to achieve lasting peace, she said, adding that this would also be in Azerbaijan's interests.

The two former Soviet republics have fought over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh for decades. Nagorno-Karabakh is located on Azerbaijani territory, but was mainly inhabited by Armenians. The region broke away from Baku in a bloody civil war in the 1990s with the help of Yerevan. The Azerbaijani army forced the surrender of the local army in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19. More than 100,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the region since then.

Baerbock offered Azerbaijan German support in clearing mines: "Three decades of conflict have literally turned Karabakh and the surrounding provinces into a dangerous minefield."

Bayramov was open to continuing the peace talks with Armenia, but accused Yerevan of unlawful territorial claims. He said that they were ready to continue the dialogue, according to an official translation. The format and location of the negotiations were of secondary importance, he said.

In addition to negotiations mediated by the EU, Iran and Turkey are also potential mediators.

However, Baerbock – without naming Iran – expressed her concern as to whether "some actors would act as honest brokers in the interests of both countries."

Against the backdrop of talks on the return of the more than 100,000 people who had fled Nagorno-Karabakh, the German foreign minister said: "Trust and confidence are of course crucial for this." We have to be realistic here, she said. "It will take time to rebuild precisely this trust."

Earlier Saturday, Baerbock travelled to Armenia's border with the autonomous Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan on Saturday, the second day of a trip to the South Caucasus.

Baerbock was standing in the centre of the quadrangle between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey. Ararat, Turkey's highest mountain, is very close by, covered in snow, an almost idyllic scene.

But there is trouble in the region: Tehran and Ankara are trying to strengthen their influence on the former Soviet republics as Moscow concentrates on its war in Ukraine.

A member of the foreign minister's mission described how two workers were injured in a steelworks here in mid-June when Azerbaijani snipers fired on them.

Baerbock participated in a patrol by the civilian EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) around 70 kilometres from the capital Yerevan near the border with Nakhchivan, which sits to the south-west of Armenia.

EUMA is tasked with monitoring the security situation along the Armenian side of the border.

EUMA began its work at the end of February, employing some 85 staff from 22 EU states by mid-September. Germany currently deploys the largest contingent with 16 members and a federal police officer as head of mission.

The costs of the two-year mission are estimated at just under €31 million ($33.2 million). Baerbock said on Friday that she was in favour of increasing the size of the mission, adding that Germany is ready to become more involved.

Azerbaijan, she said, would also benefit from more security due to the neutral observation mission.

According to German government foreign policy expert Michael Link, Azerbaijan has increasingly threatened to seize Armenian territory, primarily to create a land link to Nakhchivan, which has some 400,000 inhabitants and is located between Armenia and Iran. It also shares a short border with Turkey.

A strip of Armenian territory, some 40 kilometres wide, separates Nakhchivan from Azerbaijan in the east.

The territory was declared autonomous within Azerbaijan at the beginning of the Soviet era. Azerbaijan has long been campaigning for a new road and rail link to its exclave.

At the beginning of October, Azerbaijan's authoritarian government concluded an agreement with Iran on a transport link across Iranian territory. New border crossings into Iran are also planned.

Baerbock on Friday urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to return to the negotiating table and seek a political solution to their decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Improving the Digital Service Delivery in Armenia

Mary Lazarian
Modern Diplomacy
Nov 5 2023



Armenia is taking an important step towards modernizing its public services delivery with the Strengthening Transparency, Accountability, and Access to Public Services through GovTech project launched today. Funded by the UK Good Governance fund, implemented by the Armenian Government, the launch of the initiative was marked by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the World Bank, the Embassy of UK to Armenia, and the Yerevan Municipality.

The project aims to simplify business processes within national and regional government services, including streamlining and digitization of notary services, construction permits, public sector internal audit functions, and others, making their use faster for the public.

“The World Bank has supported public administration reform through a series of projects since 2004. The Strengthening Transparency, Accountability, and Access to Public Services through GovTech projec seeks to lay the groundwork for digital infrastructure to ensure the most efficient, cost-effective, and easy-to-use provision of public services via digital means. We believe that initiatives like these will contribute to a better business environment and will increase the transparency and accountability of public sector service delivery,” said Carolin Geginat, World Bank Country Manager for Armenia.

An important component of the project is an Annual Statistical Satisfaction Survey, which will collect public feedback and assess satisfaction levels on service delivery. To enhance government personnel capabilities, a capacity building component is included in the project to facilitate the practical implementation of acquired knowledge, ensuring a sustainable approach towards the improvement of public services.

“Public administration reforms are the most important package of reforms in the state administration system. This is not an internal process only, and directly affects the lives of businesses and people. After the signing of this memorandum, I am sure that we will start implementing the first actions with this great momentum and, in parallel, Yerevan Municipality will start implementing a wide range of public administration reform. Historically, the Municipality of Yerevan had a perception of a rather bureaucratic system, and the main goal of this project is to change those perceptions,” said Yerevan Mayor Tigran Avinyan.

The project is aligned with Armenia’s Digitalization Strategy, which serves as a roadmap towards creating an efficient government.  The project also complements the World Bank’s Public Sector Modernization Project-4 (PSMP4) lending operation, a comprehensive investment in the country’s public sector, aimed at modernizing Armenia’s public administration to improve efficiency, accessibility, and overall public service quality.

The World Bank is currently financing 10 projects in Armenia totaling $500 million. Since its inception in Armenia in 1992, the World Bank has provided around $2.7 billion from International Development Association (IDA) to which Armenia became a donor in 2023, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and trust funds. The World Bank is committed to continuing its support to Armenia in its development path for reducing poverty and sharing prosperity.

EU mediation best way to Azerbaijan-Armenia peace: German minister

Maral Chavushian
The Local, Germany
Nov 5 2023
Politics

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Saturday insisted that European mediation was the best option for arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a lasting peace agreement.

The Caucasus neighbours have been locked in a decades-long conflict for control of Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Baku reclaimed in a lightning offensive in September.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have held several rounds of peace talks under EU mediation. Both leaders have said a peace treaty could be signed in the coming months.

On a visit to Azerbaijan, Baerbock said she had "expressed concern that with certain actors, doubts can be raised whether they really negotiate as honest brokers for peace on the ground".

Last month, Aliyev refused to attend a round of peace talks with Pashinyan in Spain over what he said was France's "biased position".

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had been scheduled to join EU chief Charles Michel as mediators at those talks. So far, there has been no visible progress in EU efforts to organise a fresh round of negotiations.

"The European efforts for peace offer the most concrete path," Baerbock told journalists in Baku, speaking alongside her Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov.

She said she hoped that European-led peace talks could begin "as soon as possible".

Bayramov confirmed Azerbaijan's willingness to negotiate "regardless of geography". He said Baku has tabled "peace proposals to Armenia and if Armenia accepts
them, negotiations can continue".

Baerbock arrived in Baku from Yerevan where she also said that European moderation efforts "are a bridge and the fastest way to peace". She has also urged Baku to ensure "a secure and dignified return" of ethnic Armenian refugees to Karabakh.

Almost the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh — more than 100,000 people — fled to Armenia after Azerbaijani troops recaptured the mountainous enclave.

Bayramov said that "Armenian residents of Karabakh are full-fledged citizens of Azerbaijan, and all their rights will be respected."

Until Aliyev refused to attend the Spain talks in October, the European Union and United States had played a lead role in mediating Azerbaijani-Armenian normalisation talks.

The traditional regional power broker Russia — bogged down in its Ukraine war — has seen its influence waning in the Caucasus.

https://www.thelocal.de/20231105/eu-mediation-best-way-to-azerbaijan-armenia-peace-german-minister

Turkish Press: Prosecutors seek higher sentences for defendants in retrial of Hrant Dink case

Adrine Hakobian
Duvar, Turkey
Nov 2 2023
 02.11.2023 16:00

Duvar English

The first hearing for the Armenian journalist Hrant Dink's murder case retrial took place on Nov. 1. The Court of Cassation as the top Turkish court of appeals had reversed the judgment as it found some defendants’ sentencing inadequate.

The court also accepted the Turkish Presidency’s request to participate in the proceedings as the latter argued that it suffer from the “violation of the constitution."

Lawyers of the defendants, the Dink family, and the Turkish Presidency were present at the hearing. Seven defendants tried in custody joined the hearing through video call. 

The defendants requested for the court to dismiss the Court of Cassation's reversal of judgment.

One of the defendants Yavuz Karakaya, an ex-sergeant of the Turkish military, took the stand. He stated, “I was not tried fairly and justly. I was made to be the scapegoat of this case. There is no eyewitness, videotape, or report revealing my alleged complicity.”

“I was released pending trial, but somehow I was suddenly sentenced to the highest degree and arrested. I do not know which evidence was entered into the file to necessitate my arrest. I was denounced guilty years later, and the evidence was backtracked. Evidence against me was fabricated,” Karakaya added and demanded his release. 

The Dink family’s lawyer stated that they would remain indifferent to the Court of Cassation’s retrial decision, as it has remained indifferent to the 131-page evidence folder submitted by the family. 

The court decided to proceed with the reversal and ruled for the defendants' continued arrest. The hearing was postponed to Jan. 10, 2024. 

Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, editor-in-chief of Agos Newspaper, was shot dead on Jan. 19, 2007, in Istanbul by then-17-year-old Ogün Samast. 

Samast was caught on his way back to his hometown Trabzon after the murder. He was tried in the juvenile court and sentenced to 22 years and 10 months in prison.

An Istanbul court ruled in March 2021 that the murder was carried out in line with the goals of the Gülen network, which the Turkish authorities refer to as the Fethullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ).

From the 78 people involved in the murder case, 37 public officials accused of various offenses, including not intervening despite knowing about the murder plan, were acquitted. 26 defendants were sentenced to various terms of imprisonment, including four life sentences and two aggravated life sentences. 

The fugitive suspects in the case include Fethullah Gülen, former prosecutor Zekeriya Öz, and Ekrem Dumanlı, former editor of Gülenist newspaper Zaman. 

https://www.duvarenglish.com/amp/prosecutors-seek-higher-sentences-for-defendants-in-retrial-of-hrant-dink-case-news-63253 

What Ramaswamy Said about Israel, Armenia, and ‘Financial and Corrupting Influences’ in U.S. Foreign Policy

Christine Harutyunian
National Review
Oct 13, 2023
By JOHN MCCORMACK

On October 9, GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy sat down for a 25-minute interview with Tucker Carlson on Twitter where the main topic of discussion was Israel and U.S. foreign policy. Ramaswamy condemned the Hamas attack on Israel and defended Israel’s right to defend itself, but he also condemned most other U.S. politicians in both parties for “selective moral outrage” about war and terrorism overseas and said the foreign-policy positions of most Republicans and Democrats were dictated by money. As Alana Goodman reported on October 12 at the Washington Free Beacon: 

Vivek Ramaswamy criticized Republicans for their “selective moral outrage” at the mass terrorist attacks in Israel, and argued that politicians calling for a stronger military response against Hamas and Iran are driven by donor money.

The Republican presidential candidate questioned why his GOP opponents are not expressing similar outrage about the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and accused them of “ignoring the interests of the U.S. right here at home.” Specifically, Ramaswamy, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, equated the influx of fentanyl over the southern border — a “genocide,” in Carlson’s estimation — with Hamas’s attack against Israel.

“The selective nature of ignoring certain other conflicts — even more importantly, ignoring the interests of the U.S. right here at home — is what irritates the heck out of me,” Ramaswamy told Carlson.

“It is shameful. And I think that there are, frankly, financial and corrupting influences that lead them exactly to speak the way they do, that’s just the hard truth,” he added.

Ramaswamy was apoplectic in response to Goodman’s article. “Anti-Semitism is morally outrageous. For this pathetic ‘journalist’ to suggest I believe otherwise and then pull quotes out of context from my discussions with @TuckerCarlson about Armenia & Ukraine is an outrageous, offensive lie,” he tweeted. Goodman replied:

On Thursday night, I spoke to Ramaswamy’s spokeswoman, Tricia McLaughlin, who condemned the Free Beacon, as well as National Review and Mediaite, for their reports on Ramaswamy’s remarks. “It’s a Jewish [sic] and antisemitic trope to say that Jews run the world for money. And so that is exactly what the National Review, that is exactly what the Free Beacon, and that’s exactly what Mediate are trying to push. That is not what Vivek said, and quite frankly it’s vile,” McLaughlin said.

Later in our conversation, McLaughlin told me: “It’s really like pretty disgusting and like journalistic malpractice, and honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if there could be — we look at legal options because it’s ridiculous.” Asked what legal actions might be taken against whom, McLaughlin said she was “not going to get into that.”

Before speaking to McLaughlin, I watched the 25-minute Ramaswamy–Carlson interview (twice) and came away with the conclusion that Goodman’s article was fair and accurate. Readers can watch it in full here and judge for themselves: 

For those who don’t have a full 25 minutes, below are some longer excerpts that provide plenty of context.

About nine minutes into the video, Carlson said the terrorist attack on Israel was immoral, but “the conversation can’t be limited to right and wrong.” This exchange followed (emphasis added):

RAMASWAMY: If you want to ask the question of right and wrong, then open that Pandora’s box. I don’t favor doing this, but look at what’s happening with Azerbaijan and Armenia. You don’t really hear much about that now. Why? Because Azerbaijan’s lobby is about as effective as Ukraine’s is in Washington, D.C. So, this selective moral outrage I do think is a problem. 

CARLSON: […] Armenia-Azerbaijan—what is happening?

RAMASWAMY: What’s happening is an atrocity. I mean, you have people who are Armenians, largely Christians, six-figure numbers—100,000-120,000—being driven back to their country from a region that has long been a place they have called home, a lot of atrocities that aren’t even yet coming to light in Western media. But Azerbaijan has a lobby, a powerful lobby in Washington, DC. And I think a big part of what’s wrong in the United States today, Tucker— and I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but it’s why I’m coming in as an outsider to this nonsense—is you have a system that is bought and paid for, both for the people who run on the Democratic ticket, people who run on the Republican ticket, and people who make those decisions in Washington, DC, that are effectively managed by, in this case, the Azerbaijan lobby that has a lid on discussing this conflict, which, as you pointed out, most Americans haven’t heard of. But you’ll hear endlessly about Russia’s incursion on Ukraine and having to stand on the right side. That’s a separate point where I reject that Ukraine is inherently good anyway, but even if it were a selective moral outrage in that case, but not another one in just a neighboring area that interfaces with Russia as well. So open that Pandora’s box around the world. I mean, look at much of Africa, look elsewhere, you’re going to find the ability to have selective moral outrage, but you only hear about it in certain selective cases that the media and the existing establishment in both parties deem fit for the American public. And what we need is leaders in this country who are honest in calling out atrocities where they occur. What happened in Israel was wrong. I think we require leaders, some on the far left are too afraid to say it was wrong. But at the same time, we need leaders on the right who are willing to say in other places to like what’s happening in Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

The selective moral outrage that bothers Ramaswamy clearly seems to relate not only to Ukraine and Armenia but Israel and Armenia as well. 

Then Carlson brings the conversation back to moral outrage over the slaughter of innocent Israelis but says he doesn’t understand why “the scale of the outrage” among GOP presidential candidates isn’t the same about deaths in America from fentanyl illegally trafficked from Mexico. Ramaswamy agrees that “there is no level of moral outrage . . . in the Republican Party of the same scale of this incursion right here at home.”

Ramaswamy says later (emphasis added):

I think that it is important not to create an equivalence between Hamas and Israel, as some on the American left and European Left are trying to do. It is wrong what happened to Israel, and I call that out as a human being and as somebody who’s on a belief of some people are on the right side and the wrong side of a conflict. I think that that is far clearer here than it is, for example, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or other areas where people have baked that cake. But the selective nature of ignoring certain other conflicts, while even more importantly, ignoring the interests of the U.S. right here at all, is what irritates the heck out of me out of the politicians in both parties, and it is shameful. And I think that there are frankly, financial and corrupting influences that lead them exactly to speak the way they do. That’s just the hard truth.

As you can see in the paragraph above, Ramaswamy explicitly mentions both Israel and Ukraine and implicitly refers back to Armenia (“ignoring certain other conflicts”), and then he says that “financial and corrupting influences” lead politicians in both parties “exactly to speak the way they do.” 

On Thursday night, I asked Ramaswamy’s spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin to explain exactly what Ramaswamy believes.

Ramaswamy believes that corrupt financial influence is dictating the position of most Republicans and Democrats supporting Ukraine, correct? “Yes,” McLaughlin replied.

And Ramaswamy believes corrupt financial influence explains why most politicians are not loudly expressing outrage over the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict? “He thinks Azerbaijan has a very strong lobbying influence, that’s correct,” McLaughlin replied.

But Ramaswamy believes corrupt financial influence does not explain why most politicians support Israel? “That is correct, because he’s saying there’s a very clear right and wrong here,” McLaughlin replied.

In other words, Ramaswamy’s current view appears to be that foreign-policy positions of almost all Republicans and Democrats are dictated by money on almost every issue — except Israel.

That spin is baffling. The topic of his Tucker Carlson interview was mainly Israel at first, before Ramaswamy focused on the lack of moral outrage about the Azerbaijan–Armenian conflict. And then Ramaswamy said American politicians speak “exactly the way they do” — meaning what they talk about and what they don’t talk about — because of corrupting financial influences. There was no special carveout for Israel from this accusation in his Carlson interview, but there apparently is now. 

The logic of Ramaswamy’s current position is also baffling. Does Ramaswamy think that Israel has a weaker lobby than Ukraine and Azerbaijan? “I don’t know the answer to that question,” McLaughlin said. “He’s never brought up the lobbying influences of Israel.” According to OpenSecrets, pro-Israel lobbying is about $4 million a year — that’s 0.1 percent of all lobbying expenditures. Azerbaijan spends about $480,000 — about 0.01 percent of all lobbying expenditures. Both amounts are a pittance. But Russian interests, OpenSecrets reported in February 2022, “reported spending about $182 million on lobbying, foreign influence operations and propaganda in the U.S. since 2016.”

As for Ramaswamy’s complaints about “selective moral outrage” with regard to Ukraine, Israel, and Armenia, I told McLaughlin I couldn’t find any tweets or press releases from Ramaswamy mentioning the Azerbaijan–Armenia conflict, which erupted on September 19, before his October 9 interview with Tucker Carlson. She didn’t identify any tweets or press releases but said he had spoken about it on the campaign trail. Asked for an example, she pointed me to his YouTube page.


https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-ramaswamy-said-about-israel-armenia-and-financial-and-corrupting-influences-in-u-s-foreign-policy/