- What is this conflict about?
- What would a war there mean for us?
- What role does Russia play in this?
- How can you prevent it?
For decades are Azerbaijan and Armenia enemies. Again and again there were conflicts, sometimes even fights. Now the situation seems to be escalating again, a war cannot be ruled out. But what is this enmity about? How did it come about and what role does Russia play in it?
Of the conflictbetween Armenia and Azerbaijan rotates in the main thing around the area Nagorno-Karabakh. It is an ethno-territorial conflict origins go back to the 18th century. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, it escalated into a war that cost tens of thousands of lives and led to mass flight and displacement. In May 1994 a Armistice Agreement closed, but to date there has been no peace agreement.
In 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is predominantly populated by Armenians, unilaterally declared independence from Azerbaijan. This was never recognized internationally, but is militarily secured by Armenia, including through the occupation of seven other Azerbaijani provinces, which is considered illegal under international law. In September 2020 a military offensive ordered by Baku to recapture these provinces. In November of the same year, through the mediation of the Russian Federation Armistice Agreement be closed, borders were redefined and thus new facts were created in the South Caucasus. But there were repeated fights, and the region is a long way from lasting peace.
In September of this year, there were serious injuries again incidents. According to Armenian data, Azerbaijani troops would have Armenia attacked. Azerbaijan replied that they had in Armenian attempts at sabotage reacted because Armenia had tried to mine paths used by the Azerbaijani soldiers. A renewed ceasefire was agreed on September 15, but the Armenian ambassador to Germany, Viktor Yengibaryan, warned of a renewed escalation. It is also worth noting that these incidents are not in Nagorno-Karabakh occurred, but on the territory of Armenia in the cities of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk.
Russia made a significant contribution in 2020 to the fact that a truce was agreed. In the current case, too, Russia mediated again. Besides, Russia is the protective power Armenia’s while Turkey’s one ally Azerbaijan is. This is explosive insofar as Turkey is a member of NATO. Armenia is dependent on Russia economically, in terms of energy policy and security policy. It is weakened and distracted by the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine. That could Azerbaijan to test the extent to which Russia is still willing and able to assist Armenia. Armenia already has the OKVS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which is dominated by Russia Help asked. In the OKVS there is a clause stating that the organization will help when a member’s sovereignty is attacked by a non-member country, such as Azerbaijan. However, it is problematic border violations to be occupied, since the border is not marked.
For the EU, and thus also for Germany, the outbreak of open war could have significant consequences. The authoritarian rule of Azerbaijan under head of state Ilham Aliyev can operate from a comfortable position. At the beginning of August, during a visit to Baku, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reached an agreement with Aliyev that provided for the EU to gas from Azerbaijan receives to the delivery losses, which arose from the war between Russia and Ukraine. That also brings back problems with itself, because the gas makes Azerbaijan an attractive partner for the EU. However, this agreement would also strengthen the dictatorship in Azerbaijan, which is contrary to value politics runs within the EU. Due to the current sanctions against Russia, which were imposed as a result of the country’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Azerbaijan can more than deliver to the EU double, which means a massive inflow of foreign exchange. Instead of the current 8.1 billion cubic meters, this would be around 20 billion cubic meters per year.
An open war in the region would ultimately result in Azerbaijan no longer deliverable could be and gas will become even more expensive. Whether and to what extent Russia is involved is a question that cannot be answered. Another danger would be a possible interruption of the gas pipeline in the South Caucasus if it were damaged or destroyed by acts of war. But there is also a danger from the political side that gas deliveries from Azerbaijan could be stopped. In the event of an open conflict, the US could sanctions impose, which would then also affect gas deliveries to the EU. As a NATO partner, the EU might be forced to support these sanctions. That would be it supply contract lapsed, no more gas would flow into the EU.