Armenia held snap elections in June in response to political crises brought on by the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party Civil Contract won the elections in a landslide victory of 53.9%. The opposition alliance, led by ex-president Robert Kocharyan has challenged the results as unfair—despite international support of the results.
Pashinyan’s victory is largely seen as a repudiation of the previous authoritarian government, rather than support for Pashinyan and despite widespread condemnation of his peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The results show the public wants to move beyond the political crisis, accepting the peace deal despite Armenia’s loss.
The court may rule in the opposition’s favor given their history of politicization and corruption. Should this happen, expect widespread protests from Civil Contract supporters. Short-term, a favorable ruling will have little real impact as Pashinyan would almost definitely win another election. This will likely lead to a government crackdown on corruption and opposition. Medium to long-term, Pashinyan’s government will likely focus on popular domestic policies like anti-corruption reform and strengthening democratic institutions to increase his support following the Azerbaijan agreement.