The International Crisis Group which is a specialized think tank in research and analysis of global crises, released a new report on Nagorno-Karabakh, reflecting on the post-war prospects.
The report titled "Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh" reads the 2020 war left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile, among them the fundamental questions about who will provide security and services for the Nagorno-Karabakh residents or how to manage humanitarian aid and whether the ceasefire will hold.
According to the report, the Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region need a clearer mandate. "While they have set up checkpoints along Nagorno-Karabakh’s main thoroughfares and along the mountain road linking it to Armenia, they are based far from the front line. How long they can keep acting as troubleshooters of everyday problems is unclear. How they would react to a front-line escalation is murkier still, given that the ceasefire agreement did not spell out their mission precisely. Moscow should consult with the conflict parties and then give its troops clear rules of engagement. The parties themselves should devise, potentially with Russian mediation, a formal mechanism for resolving urgent issues, be it residents’ detention or access to water," the report said.
The authors also elaborate on the humanitarian consequences of the conflict. It is noted that the local and international actors make no attempt to address the post-war issues – security, basic needs and displacement – Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to remain an area of low-intensity tensions for decades to come.
"Neither Stepanakert nor Yerevan has the resources to deal with the post-war chaos alone, risking a protracted humanitarian crisis and long-term displacement of people. For now, Armenia is doing what it can for residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, whether they were able to return to their homes or not. UN agencies, NGOs and foreign governments could help shoulder the burden of aiding the displaced – but, at present, most are blocked from doing so. The only international organisation working in Nagorno-Karabakh is the International Committee of the Red Cross, which has been there since the 1990s. The rest remain hamstrung by the central debate over the region’s political status. Russia says it is ready to help facilitate such aid if and when outside agencies gain access. In the meantime, these organisations should find creative solutions to allow minimal support at least to their local counterparts on the ground," the report added.