Armenian expert warns of ‘sharp increase’ in security threats

Panorama, Armenia
Sept 25 2020

Armenian military expert Tigran Abrahamyan, the head of Henaket Analytical Center, unveiled two possible reasons behind the current military-political situation in the Caucasus region, the statements made by the Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities and their recent steps.

"First, Turkey and Azerbaijan have concluded that there is no alternative to the military settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict, and their preparations and statements fit into this logic,” the expert said in a Facebook post on Friday.

“Second, the developments in Tavush, which, on the one hand, confirmed the stalemate in negotiations, and, on the other hand, the lack of their possible outcome, suggest two possible results: a return to the negotiating table, vague border provocations or hostilities.”

“If we consider the resumption of negotiations under this logic, Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to increase pressure [on Armenia], including through threats of renewed war, in order to achieve their desired concessions.

“In short, the happenings around us, in Azerbaijan and Turkey, suggest that either military clashes will resume or all this is aimed at exerting total pressure on Armenia to extort concessions in the event of the resumption of talks,” he wrote.

In Abrahamyan’s words, even if Azerbaijan and Turkey are “bluffing” in an attempt to gain concessions from Armenia, it is not excluded that they may resort to a military solution shortly after failing to get those concessions. 

“In any case, it should be noted that there is a sharp increase in security threats, which forces us to put in place the necessary mechanisms,” he said.

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