ArmInfo. The entourage of Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan perfectly realizes that even small territorial concessions are quite capable of provoking the next aggression of Azerbaijan. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Israeli political scientist, public figure Avigdor Eskin.
"With the change of power in Armenia, the mediators for the OSCE Minsk Group, and the conflicting parties themselves again spoke about preparing the peoples for peace, about compromise. However, Yerevan has always considered the possibility of the concession of certain territories. In my opinion, this is evidenced by at least the lack of population in a large part of the areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. Nevertheless, Armenia has never considered and, I think, does not consider the possibility of compromises that could jeopardize their own security, not to mention the security of Karabakh people, "Eskin stressed.
Almost a quarter of a century has passed since the signing of the trilateral agreement on the establishment of a truce between the parties to the Karabakh conflict. And all these years, surges of murders on the Line of Contact have been interspersed with negotiations towards peace. However, since the end of last year, the killings have practically stopped, and the OSCE MG mediators, Baku and Yerevan, have started talking about the need to prepare the parties to the conflict for peace.
According to the forecasts of an Israeli political analyst, the probability of a large-scale war around Nagorno-Karabakh is practically absent. According to him the the main reason is that after the April 2016 local war, Baku realized the impossibility of a military victory over the Armenian parties to the conflict.
Thus, Eskin sees only the possibility of a local escalation of the situation on the Line of Contact of the opposing sides. But this scenario, according to his estimates, is directly linked to the current domestic political situation in Azerbaijan. Considering the internal political stability observed in the neighboring country, there are no prerequisites for Ilham Aliyev to initiate even local hostilities against Armenia and Karabakh, at least at this stage there.