The [15 January] informal meeting of Armenian and Georgian prime ministers [Nikol Pashinyan and Mamuka Bakhtadze respectively] has caused a lot of questions among experts of both countries. The sides exchanged scarce information even after the meeting.
Suspicions that the meeting between the two prime ministers – Nikol Pashinyan and Mamuka Baklhtadze – was obviously spontaneous was backed by the photos disseminated by the press services of the prime ministers late on the evening of 15 January.
One of them shows Pashinyan and Bakhtadze sitting in armchairs at a small table in a small and narrow room with an almost ascetic interior. As the press service of the Georgian government reported, the prime ministers discussed the following:
"Mamuka Bakhtadze personally congratulated Nikol Pashinyan on his approval in the post of prime minister of the Republic of Armenia. The heads of governments discussed good-neighbourly relations between the two countries and expressed hope that fruitful cooperation would be continued."
The Armenian side also issued a similar laconic report, which further increased the number of questions. What induced the Armenian prime minister to arrive in Georgia for a second time next day after his repeated election to the post of head of the government? In addition, even the cabinet of Armenia has not been shaped yet, Also, such a visit is a complete antithesis of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's official visit to Tbilisi in May 2018.
[Georgian] political analyst Zaal Anjaparidze assumes that the heads of the government spoke about economic issues:
"There was a certain miscommunication between Georgia and Armenia last year, in particular, over the transportation of wheat. In addition, it is expected that new transport corridors will be opened in accordance with the agreement signed in Geneva between Russia and Georgia within the frames of Russia's joining the World Trade Organisation. It is very important for Armenia to increase cargo turnover."
According to Zaal Anjaparidze, they could also have discussed Russia's intention to raise the price of natural gas in Armenia and difficulties on the Verkhny Lars checkpoint [on the Georgian-Russian border].
Stepan Grigoryan, an [Armenian] political analyst and the director of the Analytical Centre for Globalisation and Regional Cooperation, believes that Pashinyan's unexpected visit to Georgia could have been linked to [Russian-led] EEU [Eurasian Economic Union] regulations that are coming into force this year. Armenia is a member of the EEU. According to the regulations, a very high tax is going to be imposed on the import of cars from Georgia into Armenia.
"This will affect not only citizens, who will have to buy cars at a higher price than earlier, but also business, because this is a very serious business in Armenia and dozens of thousands of people are involved in it. These regulations hit our relations with Georgia and Iran and in addition, they hit the interests of citizens, because everyone is aware that no one has ever seen anything good from the EEU. I think it is to this that our prime minister's meeting with [his Georgian counterpart] is linked to."
Stepan Grigoryan did not rule out that within the frames of the EEU, Armenia "will take some unconventional steps, including the suspension of some parts of the agreement. It is clear that this should be compensated by cooperation with other players, including Georgia".
Another Armenian political analyst and the director of the Caucasus Institute, Aleksandr Iskandaryan, cannot see anything extraordinary in the Armenian prime minister's snap visit to Georgia. He said that having reinforced his positions, the new prime minister is building new policy with neighbours and in this sense, Georgia plays a major role for Armenia. Thus, new Prime Minister Pashinyan will follow the "branded" policy of Armenia, Aleksandr Iskandaryan said with confidence.
"This is the wording used by Mr Pashinyan himself: Armenia will try to improve its relations with the West and Armenia will improve and expand its relations with Russia. The West thinks that Armenia is excessively pro-Russian and Russia always thinks that it is excessively pro-Western. Thus, a kind of consensus-based policy is being developed. I would say that this is the label of Armenia's foreign policy and it is called complementarism."
Aleksandr Iskandaryan noted that no one in Armenia intends to renounce it.