Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition Press
October 20, 2018 Saturday
Former U.S. top Karabakh negotiator defends Moscow's role, criticizes Washington
James Warlick, former U.S. top Karabakh negotiator, urges Washington to step up efforts in supporting certain confidence building measures in Nagorno-Karabakh.
"I see no evidence in this [Trump] administration of any interest in Nagorno-Karabakh," Warlick, currently partner and senior policy adviser at a leading Russian firm Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners, said at Atlantic Council in Washington, TURAN's U.S. correspondent reports.
In fact, he added, "our current representative in the Minsk Group, at least, deserves to have a personal rank of Ambassador as the other negotiators do."
Andrew Schofer, current U.S. Co-Chair of the Minsk Group, is a career diplomat without ambassadorial rank.
Speaking on Russia's role in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Warlick said, he doesn't think it was within Moscow's power alone to resolve the conflict. "Even if Moscow were to decide tomorrow that NK needs to be settled, I don't think, it's going to happen that easily."
In the meantime, the added, there is an interest – first and foremost in Moscow – not having unstable southern border where there is an active military engagement.
"The conventional wisdom with Karabakh [resolution] has been that Moscow really doesn't want a settlement… The problem with that conventional wisdom is that it just doesn't bare itself out," Warlick said, adding that when the hostilities broke out in 2016, Moscow and Washington "worked together pretty well to come with a plan that could form the basis for a settlement. Those same ideas are still in play. The kind of settlement that, in fact, [Russian foreign minister] Lavrov has suggested is not that different."
Asked if Moscow is being accommodative and cooperative within the Minsk Group because there is no chance for moving forward given where the parties are, but that Kremlin actually doesn't want to see a resolution, Warlick disagreed: "If peace were to break out the region would change better," he argued.
In reply to Turan's Washington correspondent's question about Russia's troublemaker role as a supplier of arms to the conflict sides, Warlick said, he is not going to defend arm sales to Armenia and Azerbaijan by any country but, "there needs to be a concerted effort – not only by Russia – to ensure that there is a rough equivalence between military capabilities of Armenia and Azerbaijan. If there weren't such a rough equivalence the dangers of war would be high."
The dangers are high enough as it is. In the meantime, he added, if we see one side or the other prevailing in terms of military capabilities, there could be the risk that in the event of a political or diplomatic stalemate, one side or the other will take military action. We should be worried about that."
"Even with a rough military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I do believe that the sides could be frustrated in the future and come to a conclusion that there can be no resolution through diplomatic channels. That would be unfortunate not only for those two countries but the entire future."
Does Moscow need to have a positive-sum view of relations with the Western world for NK resolution? Answering to the question, Warlick said it's a lot to ask that the conflict be settled in terms of more global view of Russia's role in the world.
"We could work with Russia in a non zero-some game on a path to the settlement. I believe there is an interest in Moscow in supporting certain confidence building measures."
Former negotiator also urged Washington and Moscow to "work collaboratively on things that can be achieved now, such as confidence building measures, people to people steps…"
"I do think that there is an opportunity to begin a discussion about what a peace keeping force would look like in Nagorno-Karabakh. That discussion hasn't taken place yet," he added.
Alex Raufoglu
Washington D.C,