Chess: Levon Aronian favourite to secure right to challenge Carlsen

The Guardian(London)

March 9, 2018 Friday 7:21 PM GMT

 

 

The world championship candidates tournament opens at the Kulhaus, Berlin on Saturday afternoon, continues until 28 March and will decide who among eight qualifiers becomes the challenger to Magnus Carlsen for the Norwegian's world crown in London in November.

 

All the games can be viewed live and free online (2pm start) as three Russians, two Americans and one each from Armenia, Azerbaijan and China start their marathon double-round all-play-all, a total of 14 games each.

 

Related: Chess: Levon Aronian tops strong field to triumph at Tradewise Gibraltar

 

Who will win? Levon Aronian is a popular choice and the betting favourite, after the Yerevan 35-year-old scored major successes in 2017. He has a fluent tactical style, is cultured and outgoing and has held his own with Carlsen in their mutual classical games of the last three years.

 

Aronian is favourite but he represents poor value after five previous failures at this level in the past decade. In none was he a threat at the business end. For a player in his mid-30s that is considerable psychological baggage.

 

Vlad Kramnik is a former world champion and has long cherished his ambition to regain the crown but at 42 his game is more uneven than in his best years. Of the two Americans Fabiano Caruana missed becoming the 2016 candidate only in the final round and has prepared seriously but his recent form, a failure at Wijk 2018, is less than convincing. Wesley So, at 24, is the youngest candidate and may need more experience.

 

Shak Mamedyarov is the current world No 2 and a fine tactician and competitor, yet there is an impression that his style lacks soundness at the highest level. Alex Grischuk, like Aronian, has played in several previous candidates without winning.

 

Ding Liren is the first ever candidate from China and is reckoned the outsider, though Beijing is hungry for global success, and Ding will have been prepared in depth for his big chance. All the other candidates have played in tournaments leading up to Berlin, but Ding has conspicuously stayed away.

 

Historically, those who are proven winners at the world title candidates stage have a significant chance of a repeat. Vassily Smyslov won at Zurich 1953, was held to a draw in the championship match by Mikhail Botvinnik who retained the crown, and again won the candidates in 1956 before capturing the world title a year later. Smyslov kept his ambitions alive even as a veteran, and at age 63 again reached the candidates final against Garry Kasparov.

 

Boris Spassky won two candidates events, in 1965 and 1968, while Anatoly Karpov and Viktor Korchnoi later also achieved doubles. In 2007 there was a match tournament for the title. Vishy Anand won that, and after losing his crown to Carlsen six years later the Indian still had the energy to become the challenger in 2014.

 

Sergey Karjakin won the 2016 candidates, had a real opportunity at one moment in the championship match in New York to take Carlsen's crown, and drew the main series 6-6 before losing in speed tie-breaks. It is clear that all his play in the last two years has been geared towards this second attempt. His defensive skills, stable and strategic style, and improved speed technique are formidable weapons.

 

Karjakin has taken advice from the legendary Anatoly Karpov, a master of subtle positional play, and used it to effect when winning last week's Tal Memorial blitz in Moscow.

 

Here he exploits the Israel No 1's small errors in Karpov style. Black should prefer 11…Ne7! with the idea of a later c6 and d5, while next turn 12…hl backs up the f5 bishop. The fatal error was 20…Be4? (better Qhl) which allowed a forced winning sequence. Black resigned because 25…Nb4 26 Rxa8 Rxa8 27 Nxc5 wins the b4 knight or the d7 bishop.

 

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Sergey Karjakin v Boris Gelfand, Tal Memorial blitz 2018

 

1 b3 e5 2 Bb2 Nc6 3 e3 d6 4 c4 g6 5 Nf3 Bg7 6 Be2 Nf6 7 d4 O-O 8 O-O Bf5 9 hl hl 10 a3 Re8 11 d5 Nb8?! 12 Nc3 Ne4?! 13 Nxe4 Bxe4 14 Nd2 Bf5 15 b4 a5 16 Bc3 Na6 17 Nb3 axb4 18 axb4 Qg5 19 Khl hl 20 Qd2 Be4? 21 f3! Bf5 22 e4 Qxd2 23 Bxd2 Bd7 24 c5! dxc5 25 b5! 1-0

 

3557 1 Ng5+! hxg5 2 Rxf7+! Qxf7 3 hxg5+ Kg7 4 Qhl mate. Black can delay mate only by heavy material losses.