ARMINFO News Agency, Armenia Monday View from Moscow: Only the threat of counteroffensive can curb the aggressiveness of Baku Yerevan May 22 David Stepanyan. Counteroffensive, the threat of an offensive is the only panacea capable of curbing the aggressiveness of the leadership of Azerbaijan. Caucasus Department of the Institute of CIS countries Deputy Director, military expert Vladimir Yevseyev, expressed this opinion to ArmInfo. "It is very important to keep the conflict from moving to another stage. Today, I see a change in the quality of the conflict. In February, the Azerbaijani reconnaissance by demining sappers or remote robots tried to infiltrate deep into the Armenian territory, then at that time it looked quite typical. However, striking through the UAV the depth of the territory controlled by the NKR Defense Army, damage to anti-aircraft missile system "Osa" - is actually the act of aggression blow was obviously caused in the rear, as the air defense systems nobody puts at the forefront and that talks about moving into a new phase of the conflict course, the Defense Forces and also forced by the UAV hit back at Azerbaijan's rear", he said. The strikes on the rear, with the help of technical means, the military expert regards as an entirely different level of conflict. Thus, the destruction of air defense weapons can be regarded as the first step of reconnaissance by combat with the aim of organizing its aviation support using helicopters, as it was in April and the same UAVs. And if the Azeris managed to inflict more damage as a result of more concerted actions, then immediately a force of approximately a battalion could follow reconnaissance. "In the end, we could get events very close to the events of April 2016. That is why I am very worried about the qualitative change in the situation in the conflict region, I was sure that the April war will happen for six months and spoke about it at the celebration of Artsakh Days in Moscow, on the basis of a host of indirect indicators, unfortunately, I see such indirect signs in favor of the repetition of April 2016 now too," the expert notes. Stressing the restoration of the balance of power, Yevseyev noted that the desire to continue the policy of Ilham Aliyev "Biting off the territories" is too great. And in the case of his implementation of the resumption of hostilities at the level of April will be inevitable. According to his estimates, in Baku they are not considered with any sacrifices. For example, the carefully concealed death of 10 Azerbaijani servicemen as a result of the February sabotage did not serve as a basis for restraining their own appetites. "Unfortunately, I do not see any possibility of achieving real peace agreements, there are simply no conditions for that. Now Azerbaijan is not set to talking about compromises. And only the force can bring Baku in adequate state. Only after that it will be real to talk to Ilham Aliyev. Therefore, Armenian side should seriously prepare for it, periodically clearly warning the enemy of retaliatory counteroffensive. Talks on defense are unable to stop the aggressor, it can do only the treat of striking back", the Russian expert summed up.