NEW SITUATION HAS OCCURRED
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 13 February 2015, 10:31
Armenia which is usually rotating round the Russian politics is
trying to develop a new foreign policy, developing relations with
the Euro-Atlantic community, which is related to new objectives of
national security.
A new geopolitical situation has occurred in the Black Sea-Caucasian
region and the Near East when Russia is after expansion, preventing
neighbors from conducting an independent foreign policy.
Armenia underwent Russia’s strong pressure and blackmail and was forced
to give up on integration with the European Union, at the same time,
not being interested that Armenia will become a full-fledged partner
in the alliance formed in Eurasia.
Armenia has appeared in international isolation, and bad consequences
in economy and security. At the same time, thanks to patriotism in
the armed forces, Armenia is conducting an independent and meaningful
policy towards development of cooperation with NATO over peacekeeping,
army building, defense preparedness, training programs and acquisition
of arms.
Besides developing relations with the alliance active relations develop
with NATO member states. Russia is jealous but does not come up with
constructive initiatives and merely provokes tension in the South
Caucasus when it is all about the right to free, sovereign choice of
Armenia on making foreign political decisions.
The more significant and successful part of the Armenian public,
primarily the young generation, innumerable NGOs have practically
revised the priorities of the foreign policy of Armenia and are
supporting the initiatives and policy of the military command.
At the same time, Russia relies on strong groups in Armenia which
are related to Russian business and Gazprom’s sponsorship, as well
as Russian specialized organizations, controlling a greater part of
the mass media.
However, the military-political bloc created by Russia will soon
collapse due to economic and geopolitical reasons, which will be
crucial for the formation of the new Eurasian geopolitics.
There was an important moment in foreign policy. The new situation is
that the United States, the United Kingdom and NATO are not trying
to activate the foreign policy of the countries of Eastern Europe,
as was in the past two decades.
Now the international situation is more than tense, and the West
would not wish to give Moscow a reason to provoke new conflicts,
making use of initiatives of the countries of Eastern Europe. Now
even the smallest tension may cause a serious conflict.
Washington and London are planning to maintain the legitimacy of
actions against Russia and to cause its economy, as well as statehood
to collapse. Apparently, the countries of Eastern Europe are useless
and inefficient participants and they still have to remain in the
role of observer.
It first of all concerns Ukraine which is called to be the key lever
and factor of Russia’s collapse. Georgia has no place in this skirmish,
Moldova cannot participate, while Armenia, being such a committed
partner of Russia’s, should play a significant role, sequentially
integrating with NATO and the organizations of the Western community,
thereby demonstrating that Armenia has become a more pro-active
participant of the Western strategy in the region.
It should be noted that prior to the scandalous event of September 3
Armenia occupied a primary role among NATO partners, which was then
an intrigue in the policy of Eastern Europe. It obviously has not
been forgotten in NATO, and there is no doubt that Armenia continues
its movement towards the Alliance.
Russia does not intend to follow this situation quietly, which will
also influence the situation in the region. For Russia, the loss of
Armenia will mean loss of its positions in the South Caucasus but also
collapse of its vulnerable defense structure, which is achieved in
the southern direction by way of ignoring the interests of Armenia,
its “partner”.
There will be a response, and the response will be rather tough. This
is one of the reasons why the West does not want to irritate Russia
due to Armenia and the states of Eastern Europe. The Americans and
the British are trying to instill in all the countries of Eastern
Europe that there is no need to infuriate Russia, and their problems
will be resolved without the participation of those states.
The problems of the region will be resolved by way of avoiding
conflicts, though the huge conflict has been created, and there is no
doubt that this conflict will affect the global politics and economy.
This tactics of the West is explained by several reasons: security
factors, legal circumstances, internal and external policy, primarily
in the United States, as well as the stances of Germany and other
European states.
The United States and the United Kingdom, the leaders in curbing
Russian expansion, are trying to avoid escalation of relations within
the Western community. To what extent can this policy be viewed as
a new policy? The forthcoming developments will show.
From: A. Papazian