Azeri-Armenia Conflict May Soon Escalate, ICG Official Warns

AZERI-ARMENIA CONFLICT MAY SOON ESCALATE, ICG OFFICIAL WARNS

Bloomberg
Oct 1 2013

By Zulfugar Agayev – 2013-10-01T16:15:56Z The territorial dispute
between oil-exporting Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia may soon
escalate amid rising violence and weapons buildup, according to a
non-profit group dedicated to resolving global conflicts.

Until the 2011 breakdown in peace talks, “there was a process,”
Lawrence Scott Sheets, project director for the South Caucasus at
the International Crisis Group, said today by phone from Tbilisi,
the Georgian capital. “It was not a successful process but just the
existence of a process acted as a restraining factor.”

Armenia seized Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave about the size
of Rhode Island with a population of more than 100,000, and seven
adjacent districts from Azerbaijan in a war after the Soviet Union’s
collapse in 1991. Although major fighting ended with a cease-fire
in May 1994, the two countries haven’t reached a peace agreement and
clashes are common along the heavily militarized cease-fire line.

Peace talks mediated by France, Russia and the U.S. since a 1994
cease-fire broke down at the end of 2010. Azerbaijan, the third
largest oil producer in the former Soviet Union, also has used oil
revenue to boost military spending almost 30-fold in the past decade
to $3.7 billion this year.

Possible political unrest in both countries has added to the risk of
an escalation, Sheets said. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev will seek
a third term in office in elections next week, while Armenia faces
possible political turbulence as a result of planned opposition
protests this autumn, he said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress