WHY ARMENIA SHOULD HAVE CHOSEN THE PATH TO EU
Thursday, September 5th, 2013
The EU says its association agreement is not compatible with Russia’s
customs union
BY ANNETTE MOSKOFIAN
LONDON-Armenia has faced many challenges since its independence
and being a landlocked country surrounded by hostile neighbors
with few natural resources has tried to survive. Survival has been
the aim of this tiny fragile state and pursuit of its security has
been a priority. It has survived economically through international
aids, through investments made by Armenians living in Diaspora and
through marginal foreign investment. Through privatization of its
state owned industries most of its assets were either sold or given
away to Russian owned companies in return for much needed gas and
fuel. “These concessions have in part resulted in Russian dominance
in the economic sector, overdependence on Russia for Armenia’s energy
needs, and the perpetuation of Armenian submissiveness to Russian
interest”(McGinnity 2010).
To protect its borders from Turkey and Azerbaijan and concerned for
Nagorno Karabakh’s security, Russia has been a valuable ally. Armenia
has relied on Russian military assistance and allowed the placement of
a Russian base in Gyumri. The most notable bilateral defense agreement
between Russia and Armenia is the membership of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) by which Moscow committed to the defense
of Armenia in case of an attack. Armenia regards these measures as
key elements of its national security.
Russia has provided this assistance because Armenia is geopolitically
important. Armenia is its only ally in the region, as Georgia and
Azerbaijan are looking more to the West. It is also strategically
important for Russia to have a presence and dominance in an area rich
in oil and gas, traditionally part of its imperial control. Russia
also wants to contain its old adversary Turkey from becoming a regional
power and control expansion of US influence in the region.
Loss of Armenia as an ally would lead to Russia’s loss of influence
in the region. Armenia plays a significant role in achieving these
objectives as it is the only country in the region that has strong
ties with Russia.
There is mutual interest for both Armenia and Russia to have
a strategic alliance but Armenia is the weaker partner in this
mutually beneficial partnership. There is a dichotomy on views
about this alliance. Some believe that Armenia has no choice in the
matter, insisting that it’s the only way to guarantee its security,
while the opposing view believes it threatens the sovereignty of
the country. To counter balance this unhealthy dependence Armenia
adopted “complimentary” or “multivector” foreign policy, to create
more alliances and multilateral cooperation with Iran, EU, US and
even NATO, important for enhancing its security and survival.
Since the end of the 90’s Armenia has pursued the possibility to join
the EU. Through the EU-Armenia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
(1999) and in negotiations on free trade agreements with several
Eastern Partnership (EaP), European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and Deep
and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreements (DCFTA) it has secured
funding from the EU (around 157 million euros from 2011-2013). The EU
has become Armenia’s largest trading partner accounting for around 30%
of its total trade. Its relations with the EU would have promoted
Armenia’s transition to a full-fledged democracy, aiding economic
growth, poverty reduction, strengthening democratic structures, and
good governance. In a poll carried out in 2005, 72% of the population
showed a desire to join the EU, hoping that this might give them
an opportunity for improving their standard of living. Armenia’s
chosen path was a logical move which was part of the trend of other
Eastern European countries, giving it a chance to break away from the
post-Soviet empire. This was not necessarily contradictory with the
strong military ties with Russia. However, Russia has tried to bully
Armenia in joining the Eurasian Economic Community, a brainchild of
Putin to raise its prestige in the world and reassert its influence
and sustain a leading role in post-soviet countries. Armenia chose
to have an observer status instead without wanting to offend Russia
and had shown a preference to join EU. The EU had made it clear that
membership in the Eurasian Customs Union was incompatible with the
DCFTA and the EU Association Agreement. Armenia’s efforts to join the
EU were not well received by the Kremlin as it started blackmailing
Armenia and used tactics such as an increase in gas prices by 18%.
What went on behind closed doors when President Sarkisian and Putin
met at the beginning of this week is not clear. However the dramatic
announcement that shortly followed this meeting made it clear that
Armenia had decided to join the Eurasian Union: a union still with
few members and no substantial activity as opposed to the EU with
its long history.
It would have been to Armenia’s benefit if it had kept its security
alliance with Russia and had developed its economy by joining the EU.
The EU would have also aided the democratization process of the
country. But instead without any public referendum or a discussion
in the National Assembly, Sarkisian made a political u-turn and made
a very important decision that will have long term consequences.
There is a tendency for Armenian government to consistently make
concessions to Russia. Armenia could have leveraged its strategic
importance to gain a stronger and more independent stance. However,
the interests of the pro-Russian elite do not allow the country
to see true independence and implement policies that will serve the
interest of the nation on the long run. Instead it has become a colony
of Russia under its hegemonic domination. Carrying forward a more
balanced multilateral foreign policy would have been advantageous
for Armenia but this decision has shattered any hope of that.