Month: September 2013

IS THERE POWER IN THIS UNION?

Transitions online, Czech Rep.

Sept 27 2013

Moscow has used threats and promises to attract countries to the
Customs Union. But has membership paid off so far? From openDemocracy.

by Devin Ackles and Luke Rodeheffer

Moscow’s recent overtures to Ukraine and Armenia concerning membership
in the Russia-led Customs Union have been heavy on threats and hardball
politics, and rather short on attempts at actually explaining the
benefits of joining the union instead of pursuing European Union
integration. Which offer is best?

Armenian President Serzh Sargysan’s recent surprise announcement in
Moscow that he would pursue Customs Union membership was preceded
by months of backroom malice on the part of the Kremlin, manifested
in threats of raising Armenia’s gas prices by 60 percent, and a
potential weapons deals to Armenia’s arch-enemy, Azerbaijan. Moscow
has approached Ukraine and Moldova with the same bullying techniques,
banning imports of Ukrainian chocolate and Moldovan wine while clumsily
attempting to get Belarus and Kazakhstan to do the same.

Russian President Vladimir Putin with Viktor Yanukovych, president of
Ukraine, and Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti at July ceremonies
marking 1,025 years since the conversion of eastern Slavs to
Christianity. Photo from the Kremlin website.

In light of these trade disputes and strong-arm tactics, it is worth
considering precisely what concrete benefits the Customs Union has
brought to Belarus and Kazakhstan, the other members. Kazakhstan’s
citizens have faced price increases on basic goods as a direct result
of the imposition of CU external tariffs, which almost doubled
Kazakhstan’s average external tariff to 11.1 percent. Fuel has
become much more expensive, and due to protective Russian tariffs,
imported car dealers have been put out of business, as Russian cars
push out higher-quality foreign competitors. Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s
industry has discovered that it is much more difficult to penetrate
the Belarusian and Russian markets than vice versa.

Rather than simplifying trade, the introduction of CU customs
regulations on top of national customs regulations, combined with
the hundreds of decisions by the Eurasian Economic Commission
(the CU’s administrative body), have made doing business much more
complicated and unwieldy, according to Nailya Abdimoldaeva, a director
at Kazakhstan’s National Economic Chamber. These changes have led
Kazakhstani economist and former government adviser Mukhtar Taizhan
to denounce the Customs Union in a May interview with Kyrgyzstan’s
Vechernyi Bishkek newspaper, warning Kyrgyzstan (also not yet a member
of the CU) to reconsider joining the trade zone, as it has not brought
Kazakhstan any conceivable benefit, and is “nothing more than Russian
imperial ambition.”

That is not to say that there have been no benefits felt by any of
the members, though the trade-offs are very costly. Belarusians,
for example, have seen their real wages rise largely thanks to their
occasionally tumultuous close relationship with Moscow. The Belarusian
government’s ability to extract subsidies and acquire cheap oil and gas
for refining and export, long the bread and butter of the country’s
economic policy, is in jeopardy if the recent crisis surrounding the
disintegration of the joint Russian-Belarusian Potash Company is an
indicator of things to come. Despite Minsk’s rhetoric, its decision
to arrest the chief executive of Uralkali, and attempting to secure
a warrant through Interpol for the Russian billionaire (and largest
shareholder of Uralkali) Suleyman Kerimov, Russia’s poor relation
understands full well what opening up to Russian investment means
for the country – a complete economic takeover.

Minsk is aware of this, and Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s
recent public discussion with the Belarusian foreign minister,
Vladimir Makei, is a clear indication that Belarus is again ready to
open a dialogue with the West again. Lukashenka’s feverish search for
new long-term investment partners such as China and Indonesia, and a
move away from the confrontational and less-than-lucrative buddy deals
with Venezuela and Iran, should be read not just as a move to check
Moscow’s influence but also as a long-running effort to free Belarus
from Russian economic dominance and control. While these efforts have
failed and will continue to do so, given the country’s poor investment
climate and ham-fisted pseudo-managed economy, its special relationship
with Russia is not nearly as rosy as the authorities would have their
citizens believe. Moreover, its membership in the CU is not bringing
it the benefits that were promised.

Despite claims of a major increase in trade volume among all member
states, the volume of actual trade between Belarus and Kazakhstan
has barely increased since they joined the economic bloc – in fact,
between January and April 2013, trade between the two states actually
shrank by 12 percent compared with the first quarter of 2012. While
the Customs Union has made it much easier for Belarus to sell some of
its products in Russia, the Belarusian leadership’s current political
and economic tactics also would seem to show that they are very
concerned about how Russia’s new WTO membership, and Kazakhstan’s
likely accession in the coming year, will impact the competitiveness
of Belarusian products. The proposed imposition of a $100 “exit fee”
for Belarusian citizens who wish to leave the country and bring goods
back from the EU also speaks to the government’s increasing desperation
as to how to boost local consumption of Belarusian products and,
with its backward logic, strengthen its own economy.

Russia itself, however, has also been forced to make its share of
sacrifices. Even though 92 percent of the CU customs code has been
copied from the Russian customs code, and Russian officials dominate
the Eurasian Economic Commission, Russia has suffered financial losses
from the need to share customs duties, as well as the need to grant
Belarus major concessions. The launch of the Eurasian Economic Union
in 2015, with no tariffs on oil and gas exports to member states,
will hurt Russia’s increasingly oil-dependent budget. The fact that
Russian firms can now re-register in Kazakhstan has done nothing
to improve Russia’s terrible business climate. The expansion of the
trade bloc to include Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in the Customs Union’s
free labor market will only feed the flames of the growing xenophobic
anti-immigrant sentiment that became a defining issue in the recent
Moscow mayoral elections. Furthermore, the need for Russia to shoulder
the costs of securing Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s notoriously porous
borders in order to prevent smuggled Chinese goods and Afghan heroin
from gaining even easier access to the CU free trade bloc is inevitable
as NATO withdraws from Afghanistan.

The real target of Russia’s expansionist plans for the Customs Union
is not Central Asia, however, but Ukraine, the second most populous
country in the former Soviet Union. Russia’s accelerating trade war
with Ukraine on the eve of the Eastern European Partnership Summit in
Vilnius, where Ukraine hopes to sign an association agreement with the
European Union, has shown Russia’s waning influence and limited vision
in its crudest form. With the EU carefully considering whether or not
to sign its Association Agreement with Ukraine this November due to
its misgivings about the political environment in the country, Russia’s
aggressive tactics have actually backfired and led to an overwhelming
response from the European Parliament in support of Ukraine. Russian
aggression has also served as an impetus to the supporters of Ukraine’s
European aspirations, making them more vocal, and swelling their ranks.

The Association Agreement with the EU will require serious reform
by Ukraine in a variety of fields: public finances, the judicial
system, and electoral laws, to name just a few. The signing of the
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the European Union
this November, a document that is closely related to the Association
Agreement, would put Ukraine on a par with Norway or Switzerland in
terms of compliance with the EU’s internal market once the reforms have
been implemented. While these reforms will be very difficult for the
country to carry out, with the support of European expertise and EU
funds, Ukraine will be setting itself on a path toward establishing
strong ties with the world’s most powerful economic bloc. Such an
association with the EU will also bring another benefit – the formal
backing of the European community when trade or energy disputes with
Russia arise, which summarily eliminates Russia’s preferred means of
influencing its western neighbor.

The only chance left for Russia to pull Ukraine into the Customs Union
is through a nationwide referendum, something that Ukraine’s president
and his party pay lip service to but simultaneously abuse the court
system to prevent. In fact, a recent referendum on joining the Customs
Union by the Communist Party of Ukraine was shot down in the nation’s
constitutional court due to procedural violations. One can expect more
of the same now that the president and his inner circle have committed
themselves to signing the Association Agreement with Brussels.

Putin claimed in an October 2011 editorial laying out the principles of
the Eurasian Union that “we are making integration a comprehensible,
sustainable, and long-term project, attractive to both individuals
and businesses, that operates independently from fluctuations in the
current political environment or any other circumstances.” Mmm, nothing
could be further from the truth: the current trade war between Russia
and Belarus, combined with the attempts by Kazakhstan’s opposition to
hold a referendum on withdrawal from the Customs Union, highlights
how the CU free trade bloc brings little in the way of economic
benefit to its members. The economies of the current three members,
dominated by raw material exports and uncompetitive industry propped
up through government subsidies, have little impetus to reform or
modernize, as their economies focus on trade with each other instead
of expanding trade with the modern economies of the European Union and
East Asia. Judging by the Customs Union’s results, what could possibly
attract Kyiv to Moscow beyond increasingly desperate threats? Better
EU than CU.

Luke Rodeheffer is a graduate student and analyst in Istanbul. He
tweets on Eurasian geopolitics at @LukeRodeheffer. Devin Ackles is
an analyst at CASE Ukraine and editor at Belarus Digest. This article
originally appeared on openDemocracy.net.

FAMED ARMENIAN PIANIST RETURNING TO MONTGOMERY CHAMBER SERIES

Times Herald-Record, NY
Sept 27 2013

Piano power

Armenian Karine Poghosyan has played before at the Montgomery Senior
Center, and she’s making her return Sunday to play works by Liszt and
Khachaturian. Specifically, Poghosyan will play Liszt’s Piano Sonata in
B minor and Khachaturian’s Piano Sonata. She’s played Carnegie Hall,
Steinway Hall, and at a variety of festivals, and is known as one of
the top rising pianists in the world.

What: Karine Poghosyan When: 3 p.m. Sept. 29 Where: Montgomery Senior
Center, 29 Bridge St., Montgomery Price: Free Information: 457-9867

MOODY’S ASSIGNS BA2 RATING TO ARMENIA’S US$700 MILLION 6% NOTES DUE 2020

Moody’s
Sept 27 2013

Global Credit Research – 27 Sep 2013

New York, September 27, 2013 — Moody’s Investors Service has today
assigned a rating of Ba2 to the Government of Armenia’s 700 million
US$-denominated notes due 2020. The notes will bear interest at a rate
of 6% per annum. The rating is derived from Armenia’s Ba2 government
bond rating with stable outlook.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody’s notes that Armenia’s rating is supported by its prudent fiscal
policy, which is reflected in recent deficit reduction from 7.5%
in 2009 to 1.5% in 2012, in part achieved by under-realised capital
expenditure and gradual revenue-mobilization. The latter is underpinned
by tax reform to broaden the tax base and the introduction of a funded
multi-pillar pension system from 2014 onwards. Other credit positive
factors include the favourable cost of funding due to borrowings from
official lenders.

At the same time, Armenia’s Ba2 rating is constrained by the economy’s
small size and its reliance on commodity exports and on remittances,
mainly from Russia. In this regard, Armenia’s already high economic and
financial exposure to Russia is set to intensify within the Customs
Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as opposed to the previously
considered EU Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Moreover,
the country’s limited tax take and relatively high corruption rank
also represent credit challenges.

Armenia’s moderate geopolitical risks stem from its strained relations
with neighbouring Azerbaijan and Turkey. With respect to economic
event risk, the supply side shock stemming from the increase in natural
gas and energy tariffs that came into effect in July 2013 will likely
weaken the country’s shock-absorption capacity, especially in view of a
sufficient, but limited international reserve buffer at 3.9 months as
of June 2013. While we expect a gradual reduction in Armenia’s still
large current account deficit at 11.1% of GDP in 2012 over the medium
term, the economy has accrued a sizable external debt stock at 77%
of GDP as of end-2012. The multilateral debt repayment schedule and
the graduation from concessional funding further drives the external
debt service ratio over the next few years.

The US$700 million note sale proceeds amounting to 7% of 2012 GDP
will be used for general governmental purposes and potentially for
infrastructure investment. They add to the general government debt
stock of 44.1% of GDP to the extent that they are not used for the
repayment of the US$500 million loan from Russia. At the same time,
the note sale proceeds are set to temporarily boost gross foreign
exchange reserves.

Moody’s also notes that the high degree of dollarisation in the
banking system amid rapid, but slowing credit growth toward nominal
GDP growth levels underpins the country’s medium financial event risk.

This is particularly relevant if the country was to experience a
foreign-exchange funding shortfall, mitigated in part by the central
bank’s macro-prudential regulations regarding banks’ foreign-currency
exposures.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 5,838 (2012 Actual) (also known as
Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 7.2% (2012 Actual) (also known as GDP
Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 3.2% (2012 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -1.5% (2012 Actual) (also known as
Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -11.1% (2012 Actual) (also known as
External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 76.7 (2012 Actual)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been
recorded since 1983.

On 15 August 2013, a rating committee was called to discuss the
rating of the Armenia, Government of. The main points raised during
the discussion were:

The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic
strength, have not materially changed. The issuer’s institutional
strength/framework, has not materially changed. The issuer’s fiscal
or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially
increased. The issuer’s susceptibility to political and economic event
risk and the susceptibility to risks in the banking system have not
materially changed.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond
Ratings published in September 2013. Please see the Credit Policy
page on for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in
relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of
the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program
for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings
in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on
a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider
and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that
derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating.

For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in
relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to
the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction
structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the
definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For
further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity
page for the respective issuer on

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose
ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated
regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.

Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if
applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated
entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to
the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or
rating review.

Please see for any updates on changes to the lead rating
analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Elisa Parisi-Capone Asst Vice President – Analyst Sovereign Risk
Group Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.

250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A.

JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Bart Jan Sebastian Oosterveld MD – Sovereign Risk Sovereign Risk
Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office: Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.

250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A.

JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

AZERBAIJAN URGES ARMENIA TO WITHDRAW, JOIN IN ENERGY

Hurriyet, Turkey
Sept 27 2013

NEW YORK

Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu (C) and his Azeri counterpart
Mammadyarov speak at the Caspian Forum. Courtesy of HASEN Azeri Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has urged that if Armenia withdraws from
the Azeri territories that it occupies, it would contribute to the
regional success of the Southern Gas Corridor.

Mammadyarov said the Southern Gas Corridor had strategic importance
that would assure stability, sustainable development, security and
peace in the region, during the Caspian Forum held in New York late
Sept. 25, organized by HASEN, an Istanbul-based think tank that
conducts research on the Caspian region.

“Armenia can be a part of regional success after withdrawing its
troops from the occupied territories,” he said, according to the HASEN
press release, adding that the Baku-Ceyhan and new pipeline projects
“reinforced Azerbaijan’s sovereign independence.”

‘Peace corridor’

Speaking at the same event, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
said the Southern Gas Corridor was expected to not just bring economic
benefits, but also to “contribute to peace and security.”

Davutoglu stated that the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Southern
Gas Corridor projects linked the continents by creating a “peace and
energy basin” from the Caucasus to the Balkans and from the Caspian
Sea to the Mediterranean. He stressed that the Southern Gas Corridor
would not only be an energy corridor, but also a “peace corridor.”

The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP), the Southern
Gas Corridor’s Turkish component, will contribute to making Turkey
a strategically important intermediary, he said, while adding that
Turkey was also a consumer market as it has a considerable demand
for domestic consumption.

The TANAP intends to enable the transportation of gas from the Shah
Deniz 2 field and other fields of Azerbaijan through Turkey to Europe.

In addition, the Trans-Adriatic-Pipeline (TAP) is slated to carry
Azeri gas to Europe across Greece, Albania and Turkey.

The TANAP is planned to be completed in 2018 and will be connected
to the TAP.

September/27/2013

From: Baghdasarian

SENIOR AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL SEES IMPROVED DEMOCRACY AT HOME

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 27 2013

Elnur Aslanov
27 September 2013 /MAHIR ZEYNALOV, Ä°STANBUL

A senior Azerbaijani official from the presidential administration
has hailed the progress the oil- and gas-rich country has made in the
past two decades in consolidating democracy and increasing prosperity.

Elnur Aslanov, chief of the Presidential Administration’s Political
Analysis and Information Department, talked about the country’s
improving democratic development and rapidly shifting face. Calling his
country a nation with an “eastern mentality and western pragmatism,”
Aslanov had no doubt that Azerbaijan has made great progress toward
democracy, noting that there is still a road ahead.

Aslanov’s remarks come at a time when nearly a dozen presidential
candidates, including incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, are campaigning
for the office in a vote slated for next month. Offering a glimpse
into Azerbaijan’s domestic politics, economic development and foreign
policy, Aslanov presented a country that rose from the ashes in a
troubled region still facing poverty and devastating wars.

Aslanov noted that recent polls showed Aliyev in the lead with a
nearly 80 percent approval rating, a sign that the current president
will likely emerge victorious in next month’s election for his
third straight win. Despite having the wind in its sails, the harder
work of matching the expectations of the public lies ahead for the
government, and the unresolved conflict with neighboring Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh has been lingering at the top of the agenda for years.

Aslanov continued that political reforms are being conducted in
parallel with economic development in the country, where an oil
windfall catapulted an impoverished nation in the early 1990s into
one of the region’s powerhouses. Azerbaijan has survived severe global
financial meltdown over the past five years. The Azerbaijani official
said that authorities have taken very important steps in establishing
democratic institutions, political parties and pluralism, and that
the establishment and strengthening of democratic processes and
institutions is the responsibility of the Azerbaijani government. He
spoke about an independent media and said unhindered Internet access
provides a “very wide” platform for any political force in the country
to present its programs to the electorate. He pointed to a number of
bloggers, political parties, media outlets, Internet TV channels and
radio stations as evidence of the step-by-step progress of democracy
in Azerbaijan.

“Democracy is not a concept like an apple that you buy and make
it happen,” Aslanov said, referring to a famous quotation from
late President Heydar Aliyev, who argued for a long process of
managed democracy. Aslanov championed a better democracy when a new
intellectual generation emerges with a new vision for the future,
pointing to a government plan to send at least 5,000 students abroad
to study with full financial support. He also stressed that more than
15,000 Azerbaijan students are studying abroad, which means what he
called the creation of a new “intellectual class” that will provide
fertile ground for Azerbaijan’s economic and political development
in the future.

When asked about the government’s policies since the last presidential
elections, Aslanov preferred to look at the issue as a whole and said
the country’s progress started in 1993 with Heydar Aliyev and his
virtuosic oil and social-economic strategy, which he said has been
yielding tangible fruit since 2003. The official observed that the
number of people below the poverty line has fallen significantly,
from 50 to 6 percent, in the past 10 years, while the state budget
expanded tenfold, reaching nearly $30 billion. Aslanov said that
Azerbaijan’s military budget at the moment is bigger than the entire
budget of Armenia, a neighboring country that occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijani territory in a full-fledged war in the early 1990s.

Aslanov said that Azerbaijan’s current economy accounts for nearly
80 percent of the economy of the entire South Caucasus — clear
evidence of Azerbaijan’s development. He also observed that the look
of the capital Baku, as well as those of other provinces, is swiftly
changing, while the government has created more than a million jobs,
a significant number for a country of nine million. He added that the
financial support the government allocates for the youth increased
by a striking 100 times in the past 10 years, highlighting the
government’s serious attempts to improve the conditions in which
youths live and work.

Regarding the country’s political opposition, Aslanov complained about
the lack of concrete initiatives for the improvement of society among
today’s opposition leaders, some of whom briefly ruled the country
after the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union but had to abandon
power due to severe economic hardship and the ongoing war with Armenia.

Although the official said that it wouldn’t be right for a bureaucrat
like him to criticize the programs of opposition leaders, he commented
on some ideas put forward by the opposition — including the suggestion
that foreign investments made with state oil money should be brought
back to Azerbaijan and distributed to the public. Aslanov said that
and similar ideas are proof that the opposition leaders “have no idea
about inflation or the appropriate management of finance.”

Aslanov assured that measures to ensure “full democratic conditions”
for the elections are underway. He declined to say these conditions
are fully established now because the process is “ongoing and
progressing.” He added that although the idea of “perfect” elections
is a bit utopian, even in leading advanced democracies, Azerbaijan
will take necessary steps and measures to ensure that the will of
the people is expressed in genuine, free and fair elections.

The opposition in Azerbaijan has long complained that the government
rigged elections and that there is no democratic environment for the
opposition to express their grievances. Long- and short-term election
observation missions pointed to some defects and shortcomings in
their reports on previous elections, but also noted that the polls
constitute a step forward toward healthy democracy.

Aslanov said that 1,000 polling stations out of a total of 5,000
are equipped with cameras that will make it easier for “anyone
in the world to observe how the voting and counting is conducted”
in next month’s presidential elections. He noted that hundreds of
foreign election observers have been invited to Azerbaijan and that
institutions like the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
(OSCE/ODIHR), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE), the European Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly of
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have already established
observation missions.

“We are creating full conditions for open and transparent elections, we
are decisive,” Aslanov said, adding that the elections will determine
the future of the Azerbaijani people and that the government is
interested in holding these elections democratically. He said no
government would take action that would only invite criticism.

Regarding Internet freedoms, Aslanov underlined that the government
has always been against imposing restrictions. “And it always will
be,” he said, adding that authorities significantly cut the price of
Internet access and that the post-Soviet country has turned from an
Internet transit country into a nation that is directly connected to
the global network of the World Wide Web. His country, he continued,
is the only CIS member that has introduced 4G and has the fastest
growing mobile network.

Aslanov argued that the government is supporting the idea of
transparent, open and rapid improvement of the Internet and rejected
the claims that the Web is being controlled. He added that dozens of
Web TV and radio stations as well as hundreds of pro-government and
outspoken bloggers are contributing to the open nature of the Web. He
pointed to Facebook as an example of a major platform for political
activism in Azerbaijan. It would be impossible for any government to
control the social media platform, he said. “We don’t have any desire
or intention to do that anyway.”

He said it is absolutely normal that opposition activists are posting
status messages on Twitter and that this reflects competition. But he
warned against making personal insults and said that “hiding behind the
walls of the virtual world” and insulting someone is a criminal act.

The Azerbaijani official complained about the stereotypes with which
the country is viewed from the West. This, he claimed, has resulted
in double standards in Western policies in the region. He said the
most evident example of such double standards was the dubious Western
position on the Armenian elections earlier this year. “One candidate
was shot, another ate ballots and the other symbolically declared
himself president,” Aslanov said. “Three out of four presidential
candidates, who had a significant number of followers, declared
the elections illegitimate, while the leading Western institutions
described the vote as democratic.”

Regarding the overall situation in the South Caucasus, Aslanov said
that Azerbaijan, blessed with abundant natural treasures, is located
in an important geostrategic location, bordering with flashpoint Iran
and sitting atop oil riches and huge untapped gas reserves.

Aslanov said Azerbaijan is among the countries that provide energy
security for Europe and is a key transit country for the planned 2014
pullout of NATO troops and military hardware from Afghanistan. He
added that Azerbaijan is rapidly becoming a country that shapes the
region’s future.

He shied from saying Azerbaijan had the energy clout to compete with
Russia, but he said he sees Baku wielding significant power regarding
the diversification of energy transportation.

On the current geopolitical situation of Azerbaijan, Aslanov made
cautious remarks regarding relations with Russia and Iran. He said
that both are important countries for the stability and prosperity
of the region and that Azerbaijan is interested in bolstering ties
with these countries despite sometimes rocky relations.

Aslanov said a recent visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to
Azerbaijan was “successful” and that both Russia and Azerbaijan are
interested in maintaining what he called a “strategic partnership”
between the two countries.

Regarding Iran, Aslanov expressed “regret” over sharp remarks Iran
directed at Azerbaijan as Baku held the Eurovision song contest
last year.

Aslanov accused “some individuals and groups” of trying to damage
Iranian-Azerbaijani ties, without mentioning if they were somehow
linked to the Iranian government. He hailed shared historical and
cultural roots with Iran and said the country has deep-seated state
traditions. Azerbaijan, he said, is interested in preserving good
neighborly ties with Tehran as its stability and prosperity are
directly linked to stability in the South Caucasus.

The Azerbaijani official added that Azerbaijan is working to settle
problems — when they happen between the two nations — through formal
and informal channels.

Aslanov, however, rebuked Iran for its close ties with Armenia,
Azerbaijan’s archenemy, and said that economic privileges granted to
Armenia, especially by Iran, are the primary motivation for Yerevan’s
continuing with its policy of occupation and taking a non-constructive
role in peace talks to settle the perennial Karabakh conflict.

Stressing that Baku is disturbed by Iran’s Armenia policy, Aslanov
said Armenia would behave in a constructive way and act more rationally
if Iran joined Turkey and Azerbaijan in isolating Armenia.

Turkey shut down its border with Armenia in 1993 in a show of
solidarity with Azerbaijan after the aggressor state refused to heed
calls to leave occupied Azerbaijani territories. The two countries
don’t have diplomatic relations.

Aslanov also said that at least 100,000 people leave Armenia every
year due to economic hardship and that Armenia would have acted
more prudently if Iran had put economic and political pressure on
the country.

From: Baghdasarian

ARA GULER PHOTO EXHIBITION: A REFLECTION ON THE ISTANBUL HE GOT TO KNOW

Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Sept 27 2013

ISTANBUL – Hurriyet Daily News

Organized within the scope of ‘Turkish-European Association
Intercultural Art Dialogues’ and the ‘Art and Life,’ Ara Guler’s
exhibition opens in Brussels Print Page Send to friend ” Share
Influenced by Istanbul, photographer Ara Guler depicts the colorful
life and socio-cultural aspects of the city, which is always observed
carefully because of its cultural richness, artistic, economic,
and strategic importance, according to the curator of the exhibtion
in Brussels.

Photographer Ara Guler’s exhibition, “Istanbul in My Memoirs,”
has opened in Brussels as part of the Turkey-EU Intercultural Art
Dialogues project.

Curator Beste Gursu said Guler photographed stories that will
not be forgotten for generations. “Ara Guler depicts the colorful
life and socio-cultural aspects of this giant metropolis, which is
always observed carefully because of its cultural richness, artistic,
economic, and strategic importance – through his own perspective with
shots that offer an insight into history. What is often ignored in
photos taken by Ara Guler is the documentary-like and also surrealistic
manner of expression of the uncertainty that he is always in search
of,” Gursu said.

Guler is a master, who has witnessed a historic 80-year period in
Turkish history. When talking about himself he says he considers
himself lucky that events in his shots came across him at the right
time. Describing the life an empty film roll given to the people,
Guler advises us to try to fill each moment in an excellent manner
that will guide us for many years.

Even though it is known that Guler has held hundreds of exhibitions
of his work all over the world and published many books, memoirs of
him in Istanbul have a different place for him. As he says: He is a
part of Istanbul and he is searching for these parts in his photos.

A phrase often ascribed to Istanbul is “A city through which a sea
passes,” and this is enriched in the shots of Ara Guler in a chaotic
environment that is melancholic, alone and transformed. As its name
suggests, the exhibition consists of the selection of Istanbul photos
taken between years 1950 and 1988, and represents the memories that
have not been forgotten for a lifetime and contain different feelings
as they are remembered.

The effects of Istanbul in Guler’s works

In his childhood Guler was greatly influenced by the cinema. As
a high-school student he worked at film studios in every branch of
cinema. In 1951, he graduated from the Getronagan Armenian High School
and then began training in theatre and acting under Muhsin Ertugrul.

He wanted to be either a director or a scriptwriter. At that time
some of his stories were published in literary magazines and Armenian
newspapers.

He continued his education in the Faculty of Economics at Istanbul
University. However, on deciding to become a photo-journalist, he
dropped out of university and did his military service. He began a
career in journalism with the newspaper Yeni Ä°stanbul in 1950. He
became a photojournalist for Time Life in 1956 and for Paris Match
and Stern in 1958. Around the same time, he joined Magnum Agency. He
did a feature on Noah’s Ark and over 100 of these photographs were
distributed by Magnum Photos.

In 1992, his photographs of the great architect Sinan’s works in
Istanbul, which he had been preparing for many years, were published in
France by Edition Arthaud and by Thames & Hudson in the U.S. and the
U.K., under the title “Sinan: Architect During the Time of Suleiman
the Magnificent.” He was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by Yıldız
Technical University in 2004, the Presidential Culture and Arts Grand
Award in 2005 and the Culture Award from the Arts of the Ministry of
Culture and Tourism in 2011.

The exhibition will be on display until Oct. 24 at the Permanent
Delegation of the Turkish Republic to the European Union in Brussels.

The third event as part of the “Turkish-European Association
Intercultural Art Dialogues” series, which has been conceptualized
within the scope of the “Art and Life” projects, will take place in
the Turkish Republic’s European Union Permanent Representation Office
in Brussels.

September/27/2013

ISLAMIC SCHOLAR GULEN REJECTS BOMBINGS IN THE NAME OF ISLAM

Cihan News Agency (CNA), Turkey
September 26, 2013 Thursday

ISTANBUL (CIHAN)- Turkish Islamic scholar Fethullah Gulen has
unequivocally rejected terrorist attacks and bombings committed in the
name of Islam, adding that a terrorist cannot be branded a real Muslim.

In a speech he delivered to his students at his house in Pennsylvania,
Gulen spoke at length about attacks on behalf of Islam, stressing
that a real Muslim could never commit a terrorist attack. His speech
was published on Thursday on herkul.org, a website that frequently
broadcasts his messages.

Gulen’s remarks came shortly after a deadly shooting and hostage
crisis in a Nairobi mall in which more than 60 people were killed.

This week has been particularly bloody across the Middle East,
with church and mosque bombings in Iraq and Pakistan killing scores
of civilians.

“The most brutal scenes are at play in the name of Islam in a wide
geography from Syria to Pakistan and Kenya,” Gulen recalled, noting
that perpetrators bomb mosques and churches, slitting throats after
alleging that the Quran, holy book of Muslims, orders it. Gulen said
the picture in the Middle East is also a shame for Muslims and that
it stains the face of Islam.

Gulen, who is commonly known as Hojaefendi by his followers, said the
terrorist attacks attributed to Muslims are sometimes being undertaken
by what he called “raw souls” who fail to fathom Islam with its depth,
sometimes by extreme provocation of feelings of young men, sometimes
by people disguised as Muslims and sometimes by criminals under the
influence of drugs.

Gulen stated that everything is being codified in Islam during both
times of peace and war. He said while individuals cannot declare
war by themselves and decide to kill a person during the peace time,
those during a hot war also cannot kill women, children or the elderly.

According to Islam, he said people also absolutely cannot attack houses
of worship of others even during war. “Considering all these things,
it is never possible to justify suicide attacks, suicide bombers or
similar terrorist attacks,” he underlined.

Gulen said the Prophet Muhammad tolerated exceptionally harsh torture
during his 13-year life in Mecca and that he only prayed for those
who stoned him to find the right path. He said the Prophet Muhammad
never resorted to violence despite all the oppression Muslims suffered
and that the battles of Badr, Uhud and Kandaq were only defensive
in nature.

The Islamic scholar, who is well-known for his inspirational speeches
on interfaith dialogue, said the Prophet Muhammad did his best to
solve issues without shedding blood, breaking hearts or causing the
enmity to unfold. He said his way of settling issues transformed
sworn enemies into his companions, citing Ikrimah ibn Abi Jahl, a
companion of the Prophet and a leading Islamic commander, who was
initially one of the chief opponents to the Prophet Muhammad even
during the conquest of Mecca.

Gulen also cited early Islamic scholar Abdullah ibn Abbas as saying
that those who unfairly kill an innocent human will stay in hell
forever and said terrorism is a crime the holy Quran threatens with
the punishment of hell.

“Suicide [bombers] would go to hell forever and they will be called
to account for innocent people they killed,” Gulen added.

Saying that conflicts of interest, party and clique rivalry,
anti-democratic implementations and human rights abuses in the Islamic
geography have resulted in many “dissatisfied groups,” Gulen said some
of these groups are ignorant enough to be fooled by “certain services”
and use them for their goals.

Gulen said he doesn’t see violence perpetrated in the name of Islam
as one-sided, also blaming Muslims for the degradation of values
which are then being used by others for terrorism purposes.

Gulen said lack of spiritual and fundamental humanitarian values are
at the root of ignorance that leads to terrorism and that some youth
are being manipulated and exploited to “be the actors of scenarios
written by others.”

He also urged those who have a representative position to be cautious
in their actions and speeches and that calling on people to destroy
churches means inviting others to destroy mosques and bomb mosque
attendants.

“What you sow is what you reap,” Gulen said. “People should sow
good things.”

Gulen pointed to what he described as “world paranoia” in reference to
Islamophobia, and said it has been renewed due to recent terrorist
attacks. In a moment of self-criticism, Gulen said Muslims also
have made mistakes causing the spread of this problem. Saying that
acknowledging these mistakes and rectifying them will play a very
important role in solving the problems, Gulen recalled the mass
deportation of Armenians from eastern Turkey during World War I as
an example.

Gulen cited a story of Caliph Umar bin Khattab, who asked a patriarch
in Jerusalem to show him a place to perform his prayer. When the pastor
told him he could pray anywhere in the church, Caliph Umar rejected
this and preferred to pray outside the church. After finishing his
prayer, Umar told patriarch that he deliberately avoided praying in
the church because other Muslims may follow the suit and transform
the church into a mosque.

“This was us,” Gulen highlighted. “Either from inside or outside, some
spoiled us, our genes, they changed us, they made us savages.” Gulen
recalled famous remarks he made earlier — a terrorist cannot be a
Muslim and a Muslim cannot be a terrorist — and said it is impossible
for a Muslim who has fully perceived and digested Islam become a
terrorist and that real Muslims would never intentionally commit an
act of terror and a terrorist cannot be considered a real Muslim.

“Can’t a terrorist come out of Muslims?” Gulen asked. “There could be
[one] but they would lose characteristics of a Muslim; they cannot be
called a healthy Muslim,” Gulen said in response to his own question.

He said even a war has its own rules and that one cannot fight against
those who don’t fight. Whenever the Prophet Muhammad prepared his
troops for a defensive war, Gulen said, he ordered them not to do
anything to those who took refuge in houses of worship, or to women
and children.

He said it is impossible to reconcile the rules of the Prophet Muhammad
with the acts of terrorists. (Today’s Zaman) CIHAN

AZERI OFFICIAL CRITICIZES ARMENIAN LEADER’S SPEECH ON KARABAKH

APA news agency, Azerbaijan
Sept 24 2013

24 September: “The speech by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is
full of contradictory points. In general, Sargsyan used expressions
that run counter to international principles. Sargsyan had better
take a look at his own country. As a result of ethnic cleansing and
policy of intolerance Armenia has turned into a mono-ethnic country
today,” the press secretary of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry,
Elman Abdullayev, told APA.

He was commenting on the speech Serzh Sargsyan made at the Sochi
meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization about some
countries within the organization taking steps out of line with
the Armenian position, especially on Nagornyy Karabakh. Sargsyan
criticized those countries and said that there was hatred of Armenians
in Azerbaijan.

Abdullayev said that without counting Nagornyy Karabakh there are
30,000 Armenians and many other peoples in Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijan
has been the cradle and centre of tolerance in the South Caucasus. It
is no coincidence that all international events, humanitarian forums,
civilizational and intercultural dialogues are held in Azerbaijan. The
cultural legacy of other peoples is no longer there in Armenia,
all of it has been destroyed.

Commenting on the Armenian president’s remarks that he respects
the principle of territorial integrity, Abdullayev pointed out that
Azerbaijan has always displayed a normal position on implementing the
principle of self-determination within the framework of principle of
territorial integrity: “Why do then the Armenian armed forces remain
in Azerbaijan’s occupied territories. In general, by accusing other
countries Serzh Sargsyan once more demonstrated the helpless position
of Armenia. It is natural and normal that he respects the principle of
territorial integrity of other countries, because today this principle
is the inviolable one at the foundation of the system of international
relations. However, his words and actions do not match.”

From: Baghdasarian

INSULTS OF JAMIL HASANLI ON TV DEBATES CONTINUE

Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
September 25, 2013 Wednesday

Baku/25.09.13/Turan:

On the regular public television debate September 24, presidential
candidates attacked the nominee of the National Council of Democratic
Forces (NCDF) Jamil Gasanli .

Previously, Gasanli was accused of granting his daughter’s marriage
to “an Christian Englishman,” now the head of the party ” Modern
Musavat”, Hafiz Hajiyev has gone a step further, calling the candidate,
“son-in-law of the Armenians.” He called the National Council and
its leader Armenian accomplices.

The chairman of the Social Democratic Party, Araz Alizadeh, devoted
his entire

6-minute speech to criticizing Gasanli and other leaders of the
opposition.

Alizadeh admitted that after the article against him in the newspaper
“Yeni Musavat”, he decided to express his hatred of the opposition on
air. He attacked Jamil Gasanli and the leader of Musavat, Isa Gambar,
accusing them of incompetence, corruption, libel, lies, and lack of
a platform,.

Alizadeh warned of the danger if Gambar returns to power, putting the
blame on Gambar’s written response to the anti-Turkic book “Hearth”
by Zori Balayan .

Alizadeh deliberately did not call Gasanli by name, but rather calling
him “this” in a humiliating way.

Plenipotentiary Representative of President Ilham Aliyev, Mubariz
Gurbanly focused on the successful development of Azerbaijan under
the leadership of the current president. He cited the GDP’s 10 years
of growth by 3.4 times as indication.

Rejecting criticism on the issuance of “enslaving” credits to the
population, Gurbanly said that small businesses were given preferential
loans of 1 billion 200 million AZN.

He also stated the high allocations for the development of health
and education.

However, in response, the head of the party Umid, Iqbal Aghazadeh
said that what kind of quality education and health care can there be
if the average salary of doctors is 150 manats (about $ 190 ), and
if teachers earn 167 manats (about $ 210 ), and the State Students
Admission Commission annually sees a decrease in passing grades in
high school.

As for loans, the central bank provides them to commercial banks
controlled by oligarchic groups at 3 percent, giving them to people
at 27-30 per cent interest. Bank debts have reached 700 million AZN.

According to Aghazadeh, all statements about the country’s development
are false, and a glossy facade hides the bitter reality.

Representing the head of the Justice Party, Ilyas Ismailov, deputy
chairman of the Islamic Party, Akif Heydarli (the Justice Party,
the Islamic Party and the Green Party are joined in the block
“Motherland”), focused on the violation of the rights of believers,
unfair prosecution of the Islamists, and illegal banning of the hijab
in schools.

The leader of the National Revival Movement Faraj Guliyev spoke of
the need for protection of agricultural producers and importers from
monopolies. He spent half the performance on the criticism of the
National Council, likening it to the Bolshevik Soviets.

The leader of the Democratic Party, Sardar Jalaloglu, urged the
authorities not to resort to political revenge. He condemned the
arrest of the son of the Popular Front Party head Ali Kerimli ,
and before that the arrest of Isa Gambar’s son.

Jalaloglu recalled 10 years ago when he was arrested by armed men,
a machine gun was placed to the head of his daughter, who at the time
was a 6th grade student.

“Revenge on children for their fathers is immoral. Even the bloody
dictator Stalin said that “children are not responsible for their
fathers,” reminded Jalaloghlu .

The leader of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, Gudret
Gasanguliev, focused on the criticism of Jamil Gasanli. He again put
him guilty for positive quotes in his books about Heydar Aliyev, as
well as the fact that he did not mind the constitutional amendment
in parliament to allow President Ilham Aliyev to run for a third term.

Jamil Gasanli also urged the authorities to stop persecuting children
of the opposition. He recalled that recently the son of Ali Kerimli
was arrested and the 16 -year-old son of the press secretary of the
National Council, Oktay Gyulalyev, was brutally beaten and wounded.

Gasanli again urged Aliyev himself to come to the debate and to account
for the failure to liberate occupied lands, and to follow through on
promised reforms.

In response, Mubariz Gurbanly and Zahid Oruj accused Gasanli that the
forces supporting him lost strategic military positions in 1992-93
and now Azerbaijan has to solve difficult problems of strengthening
its economic and military power.

Gasanli responded by saying Aliyev’s corrupt regime cannot solve the
problem of liberating lands, because the wealth of the country is
exported abroad.

“Ilham Aliyev takes gold mines in Gadabay, and prior to the election;
salaries have only increased by 10AZN. And that the bread money people
with disabilities (IDP) was only raised by 1.5 manats,” said Gasanli.

Gasanli recalled that 10 years ago Aliyev said that he would be the
president of all Azerbaijanis, but has now he divides people into
national and anti-national forces.

Gasanli also commented on the repression against the people’s best
sons.

Finally, Gasanli said that while this despotic regime is in power,
there would not be justice and development in Azerbaijan. -06D-

BRITISH LORD: TAKING OVER UN SECURITY COUNCIL PRESIDENCY TO INCREASE AZERBAIJAN’S REPUTATION

Trend, Azerbaijan
Sept 27 2013

Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 27 /Trend I.Izzet/

It is clearly more than time for the UN Security Council Resolutions,
affirming Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and requiring Armenian
withdrawal are implemented, Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party
with special responsibility for relations with the City of London
Lord Flight said.

He made the remarks when answering questions from The European
Azerbaijan Society (TEAS), on the issues – TAP, British investments
on Azerbaijani economy, Azerbaijan’s participation in international
peace keeping missions, Azerbaijan taking on the UN Security Council
Presidency, as well as the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

Azerbaijan’s assumption of the UN Security Council Presidency next
month is important and should give Azerbaijan the opportunity to
become well-known in the world, Lord Flight believes.

According to him, the extent Azerbaijan handles the Presidency well,
should also make Azerbaijan better known and increase its reputation.

The fact that Azerbaijan has supplied troops for peace keeping
operations in Iraq, Kosovo and Afghanistan should also be much better
known in the West and the West should recognize this more publicly,
he said.

Lord Flight also exchanged ideas about the economic projects.

“The new Trans Adriatic Pipeline is clearly of huge strategic
importance and should increase greatly Azerbaijan’s importance to
Western Europe and it will also contribute to the development of EU’s
energy security,” Lord Flight said.

He went on to add that, in the first quarter of 2013 the UK accounted
for 44.1 percent of Foreign Direct Investment in Azerbaijan, making
it the largest foreign investor.

“I am pleased to note that the UK is the largest foreign direct
investor in Azerbaijan and this should clearly be of importance to
the UK stance towards Azerbaijan,” Lord Flight said.