Month: November 2009

ARMENIA 101ST AMONG FAILED STATES

news.am
Nov 27 2009
Armenia

Armenia ranks 101st among 177 countries involved in the rating
of failed states issued by American "Foreign policy" magazine and
international organization the "Fund for peace".

The countries were assessed based on a number of criteria:
democratic pressure, refugees, group grievance, human rights, uneven
developments, economic decline, de-legitimatization of the state,
external intervention, factionalized elites, public services, security
apparatus and human flight.

In 2009 Somalia topped the failed countries’ list, just as last year.

As to other former USSR states, Uzbekistan takes the 31st place,
Georgia-33, Tajikistan-37 and Azerbaijan-56, while Russia is ranked
71st.

RENEWING EUROPE’S SECURITY DIALOGUE
by George A. Papandreou

Project Syndicate
ary/papandreou5
Nov 27 2009

ATHENS – The year 2009 has been one of great change, taking place
amidst even greater uncertainty. Twenty years after the fall of the
Berlin Wall, the resilience of the post-Cold War security system
in Europe is being tested. Longstanding conflicts remain unresolved
and complex new challenges are emerging. Energy security, organized
crime, terrorism, absolutism and fundamentalism, climate change,
and cybercrime are acute concerns for every country.

The economic crisis has left many people far less prosperous, and
perhaps less inclined to be ambitious in our efforts to address
Europe’s security challenges. But we must also keep in mind that
crisis brings with it opportunities for change.

This year has also seen a number of positive developments, including a
"reset" in relations between two key players in the European security
dialogue: Russia and the United States. The European Union has recently
taken important steps towards greater cohesion and unity with the
appointment of a President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

We should celebrate these achievements even as we recognize
that serious problems remain to be resolved. There are different
perspectives on how Europe’s security architecture should be designed,
but we all agree on the urgent need to tackle this critical challenge
through constructive dialogue.

It is in this spirit of cooperation and bridge-building that 56 foreign
ministers – representing the US, Canada, and European countries,
including the Russian Federation and the rest of the former Soviet
Union – will meet in Athens on December 1-2 on my invitation to discuss
the future of European security. The talks mark the continuation
of the "Corfu Process," anchored in the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, which began with an informal ministerial
meeting on Corfu in June.

An attempt to address Europe’s unfinished business, the Corfu Process
is an opportunity for us to come together to assess the gaps in
our common security, to craft more effective responses to existing
challenges, and – most importantly – to generate new political will for
joint action. This includes action to preserve arms-control regimes,
including the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe; to
accelerate the resolution of protracted conflicts; to promote human
rights and fundamental freedoms; and to assess and address traditional
and new threats.

We cannot afford to leave the region’s protracted conflicts such as
the ones in Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria on the back burner,
as last year’s war in Georgia made abundantly clear. People living
in these areas need peace and stability, not a fragile status quo
that could suddenly shatter and turn violent.

Security challenges in neighboring regions also require a joint
response. Afghanistan is a case in point. And threats like terrorism,
trafficking of arms, drugs, and people, and climate change are
borderless and complex. Only a joint response can be effective.

The fall of the Berlin Wall marked the end of an era of mistrust and
division, and opened the way for cooperation aimed at a peaceful
and stable Europe. Europe has come a long way from those years of
division, but we have not yet fully reaped the benefits promised by
the wave of change of 1989.

The OSCE meeting in Athens comes at a critical time, when Europeans
must move into the twenty-first century more united than ever before.

We must take this opportunity to restore the full capacity of the OSCE
and make a fresh commitment to an indivisible European security system.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.

Reprinting material from this website without written consent from
Project Syndicate is a violation of international copyright law. To
secure permission, please contact [email protected].

MOSCOW, ANKARA HAVE COMMON INTERESTS IN KARABAKH?

news.am
Nov 27 2009
Armenia

Hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will not be resumed
– Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is too wise and farsighted a
politician to unleash a new war in the region, Anatoly Tsiganok,
Head of the Center for Military Prognosis, Institute for Political
and Military Analysis (IPMA), told NEWS.am.

He stressed that the Collective Security Treaty organization (CSTO),
NATO, other international organizations, as well as Russia, will
do their best to prevent hostilities in the region. "No one needs a
war in the south Caucasus – neither the USA nor Russia nor Europe,"
Tsiganok said. He pointed out that the unleashing of hostilities in
the Nagorno-Karabakh region depends to a great extent on Russia’s
attitude. The expert stressed that neither Russia nor the CSTO will
interfere is hostilities should be resumed. As regards Washington’s
position, Tsiganok said the Armenian lobby is much stronger there
than its Azerbaijani counterpart. "It is no mere chance that the U.S.

Congress includes financial aid to Nagorno-Karabakh in the U.S. draft
budget every year. It is most serious and means support for
Stepanakert’s actions," the expert said. As regard the negotiation
process, Tsiganok stressed that it will never be a success without
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Speaking of the Azerbaijani President’s recent bellicose statements,
Tsiganok said that they are intended for Ankara, being aimed
at preventing the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. "The
Ankara-Baku relations strained by Baku’s wish to raise the oil price
and Turkey’s refusal to pay more have even worsened because of the
possible reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Azerbaijan views
this prospect as running counter to its interests," Tsiganok said. He
stressed that He stressed Turkey is the main player in the post-Soviet
area, its potential being even great than that of Russia. "On the
other hand, it is a good thing that Russia and Turkey have common
interests in the post-Soviet area, including their interests in
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Ankara-Yerevan relations,"
the expert said.

ALIYEV IS NOT SAAKASHVILI: SKAKOV

news.am
Nov 27 2009
Armenia

Ilham Aliyev’s warlike statements on resumption of hostilities in
Karabakh conflict zone are groundless and nothing else but a political
game, Head of CIS Department of the Russian Institute of Strategic
Research Alexander Skakov said in an interview with NEWS.am.

According to him, Baku’s recent military threats are induced by
Armenian-Turkish reconciliation and intended for internal public.

"Thereby Baku tries to link Karabakh conflict with Armenian-Turkish
relations and affect somehow Ankara, as attempts of relations’
normalization with Yerevan incur displeasure in Azerbaijan. However,
this pressure will not come to head as Ankara has its own priority
interests", the expert reckons.

Skakov reassured, that Azerbaijan will not open hostilities especially
after the August 2008 war in Georgia. "Georgian experience showed
that military operations in South Caucasus are doomed to failure, as
International organizations will not permit escalation of situation in
the region. Even if we assume in theory, that Azerbaijan unleashed a
war, it will last several days and end under the pressure of CSTO, UN,
European structures and Russia. I would restate that Azerbaijan will
not resume hostilities, as Aliyev would not run such an adventure,
if for no other reason than he is not Saakashvili," Skakov concluded.

TURKEY TURNS ITS GAZE TO THE EAST
by Hamida Ghafour

The National
rticle?AID=/20091128/WEEKENDER/711279812/1135
Nov 28 2009
UAE

Just before he flew to Libya on Tuesday, the Turkish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was asked what he thought of the new European
Union president who once remarked that Turkey could never be a
part of Europe because it did not share the "fundamental values"
of Christianity.

Mr Erdogan had a diplomatic response ready: Herman Van Rompuy would
pose no obstacle to the Muslim nation’s EU aspirations.

Then he took off to Tripoli followed by a gaggle of businessmen, joined
the Libyan leader Muammer Qadafi in his Beduoin tent and announced
that the two nations would sign a free-trade agreement next year.

Following the news that the colourless Mr Van Rompuy, a Belgian
Eurocrat, was appointed to the presidential post, the question "who?"

continues to echo from Westphalia to Manchester.

But the Turks have grown used to hostility from the EU a leading
columnist once called it a "fat midget" which was "lacking perspective"
and gave a collective shrug.

Prospects for Turkey’s accession to the exclusive European club may
look dimmer than ever but the republic, which is Nato’s only Muslim
member, is increasingly turning eastward for its ambitions.

>From the Balkans to the Caucasus to the Middle East, Turkey is focusing
its energies on establishing an arc of influence in many countries
which were once part of the Ottoman empire.

Some call it Ottomania.

But instead of rose-perfumed pashas in embroidered caftans invading
Arab lands with cadres of janissaries, Turkish politicians are arriving
with delegations of business leaders dangling lucrative trade deals
to the economically stagnant region.

"Turkey is carrying western values to its eastern neighbours," said
Mustafa Kutley, an Ankara-based contributor to the Turkish Weekly
journal. "It is trying a very European approach: while increasing
the wealth of its country it is transforming the continent from one
of violence to one of wealth. That is what Europe once did. The EU
is less important on the Turkish agenda."

Ever since the Turks established a secular republic in 1923 by
abolishing the caliphate, they have looked down their noses at the
backwardness of the east and preferred to turn to Europe and America
for role models.

But that is changing at breakneck speed.

In the past two months Turkey’s somewhat Islamist leaders from the
ruling AK party have travelled to Iraqi Kurdistan and promised to
open a consulate in Irbil.

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may have declared earlier
this month that capitalism was dead, but the two countries which once
ran rival empires have reached a deal to increase bilateral trade
from US$7 billion (Dh25b) in 2008 to $20 billion by 2011.

Turkey has cannily capitalised on anti-American sentiment in Iraq
and signed a raft of deals there. Indeed Turkish exports to the
Middle East and North Africa were valued at $31 billion in 2008,
a seven-fold increase from 2001.

The Turks are making their mark on the diplomatic scene, too. In
trying to mediate between Iran and the West, Turkey is offering to
store Iran’s low-grade enriched uranium. Relations with Israel are
cold but last week a trade minister from the Jewish state visited
Turkey and the two sides promised to improve ties.

More significantly, last month Turkey and Armenia agreed to open their
border and establish diplomatic ties despite lingering hostility over
the genocide of up to one million Armenians at the hands of Ottoman
Turks in 1915.

It was a coup for Turkey’s so-called "football diplomacy" in which
leaders from the two countries met occasionally to watch their national
teams play football, providing a casual setting for negotiations.

A decade ago, the Turks and the Syrians nearly went to war but
last month Mr Erdogan and the Syrian president, Bashar al Assad,
were practically hugging in Damascus as they announced that visa
requirements for travellers would be abolished.

Russia, another historic enemy, is now a major trading partner.

The driving force behind the change is Ahmet Davutoglu, the scholarly
foreign minister who was Mr Erdogan’s chief foreign policy adviser
for seven years before he took up the ministerial job.

The son of a merchant from Anatolia and an outsider to the
Ankara-Istanbul elite, Mr Davutoglu has torn up decades of Turkish
policy in reaching out to former Ottoman dominions.

Sometimes the results are startling.

Last February when his predecessor, Ali Babacan, visited Yemen he was
greeted by a room full of tribal leaders with their daggers drawn. It
was an old custom reserved for the arrival of Ottoman governors.

Mr Davutoglu, who is nicknamed the "Kissinger of Turkey" in reference
to Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, prefers the term
"strategic depth" to Ottomania.

His slogan is "zero problems with neighbours".

Mr Davutoglu is a supporter of the EU project but unafraid to defend
the Ottomans to European audiences.

"If the Ottoman archive was not opened, European history could not
have been written," he told a Spanish newspaper earlier this month.

Turkey has also become an important energy hub. The most visible
project right now is the Nabucco pipeline, a proposed $11.7
billion plan to carry gas across Turkey from Azerbaijan and perhaps
Turkmenistan, Iran, Iraq and Egypt.

These developments have caused some anxiety in the West because of
fears that Turkey is drifting away from its traditional allies.

Turkey’s chummy relations with Iran will certainly be brought up in
Washington when Mr Erdogan visits the US on December 7, said Hugh
Pope, an Istanbul-based expert on Turkey and author of the upcoming
Dining with al Qaeda: Three Decades Exploring the Many Worlds of the
Middle East.

"The way Erdogan is talking about Iran is definitely damaging him in
Washington policy circles and perhaps irritating people in the EU. But
I think there are valid counter-arguments. The Turks are saying ‘at
least we are engaging Iran’. A million Iranians are coming to Turkey
every year and seeing an alternative way of governing in a developing
country with a Muslim identity. This is possibly more subversive in
Iran than any sanctions could be."

Iranians are joined by a growing number of Arabs flocking to the
beaches and pine forests of Turkey’s south-west coast during the
summer holidays.

Tourism has also been given a boost thanks to Muhannad, the dashing
male lead in the hit Turkish soap opera Noor which is dubbed into
Arabic and broadcast across the Arab world to swooning female
audiences.

There have been missteps though.

Earlier this month Mr Erdogan raised hackles by defending the Sudanese
president, Omar al Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal
Court on war crime charges. "A Muslim could never commit genocide," the
prime minister said. There is also the thorny question of languishing
peace talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots in Cyprus.

Still, there is a confidence partly drawn from its history which did
not exist before.

"The Ottomans weren’t seen as a constructive part of Turkey’s past. It
was not natural because Ottoman history is part of Turkey history,"
said Mr Kutley. "It is about making peace with its history."

The high-water mark perhaps came in September during the funeral of
the last Ottoman prince, Osman Ertugrul Osmanoglu, at the Blue Mosque
in Istanbul. He would have been successor to the 600-year-old dynasty
if the empire had not been abolished.

The government granted special permission to allow him to be buried
next to his grandfather, Sultan Abdul Hamid II. Several ministers
attended the service, which would have once been unthinkable in the
fiercely secular republic.

The nostalgia is also apparent at the populist level. A popular new
museum depicting the 1453 capture of Constantinople by Mehmet II has
opened in the capital. The centrepiece depicts his final victory on
the city walls. In January, Istanbul will have the opportunity to
show off its new-found confidence when it holds the title of European
Capital of Culture.

The occasion will be marked by a year-long series of museum openings,
concerts and exhibitions among other events. Ironically, the accolade
was given by the European Union.

"Istanbul is already a city with international stature and has
been from the first day it was founded," said Yeshim Ternar, the
Turkish-born author of The Book and the Veil Escape from an Istanbul
Harem. "It has always been a nexus; a wonderful mix of everything
that fuels culture. There is no other city in the whole world that
disorients a traveller and where any effort at reorientation brings
you somewhere you had never imagined was possible."

For some it was high time the Middle East looked to Turkey for a
fresh approach to solving the region’s problems.

Pope said: "We’re seeing something based on Istanbul as a hub, and a
commercial prestige of Turkey at the moment. Middle Eastern countries
are looking to Turkey for ideas."

AZERBAIJAN FM: ARMENIAN’S FUNDRAISING ACTIONS SHOW THEIR OCCUPATION POLICY OVER AGAIN

APA
Nov 27 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova – APA. "It is not the first time that
Armenians do this. Such step taken by Armenians expose their policy
of occupation," Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Elkhan
Polukhov told APA, commenting on Armenian’s telethon in the United
States to raise funds for the alleged restoration of Shusha, the
illegally occupied land of Azerbaijan.

According to him, after all the lands occupied by Armenia are
liberated, and Azeri and Armenian communities return to the homeland to
live in peace, the Government of Azerbaijan will carry out restoration
and rebuilding activities there and raise the standard of living in
Nagorno Karabakh to the level of living in Azerbaijan.

"With such actions, Armenians will not be able to really improve the
living conditions of the Armenian community there," he added.

Shusha is a town in Nagorno Karabakh, an internationally recognized
territory of Azerbaijan, illegally occupied by Armenians amid the
chaos after the fall of the Soviet Union.

LAWMAKERS HAIL ALIYEV’S WARNING ON GARABAGH

AzerNews Weekly
Nov 27 2009
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani lawmakers voiced support for the strongly-worded statement
made by President Ilham Aliyev prior to his talks on the Upper
(Nagorno) Garabagh conflict held with his Armenian counterpart Serzh
Sarkisian in Munich, Germany on Sunday.

President Aliyev said in the Goranboy region, while addressing refugees
displaced by the armed conflict in the early 1990s that, if the Munich
talks failed to yield fruit, peace talks with Armenia would be halted
and Azerbaijan could move to regain its occupied territories by force.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus republics reared up in
the late 1980s due to Armenia’s territorial claims. Armenia has been
occupying over 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s internationally-recognized
territory since the early 1990s in defiance of international law. The
ceasefire accord was signed in 1994, but over a decade of efforts by
US, Russian and French mediators have been fruitless so far.

MP Zahid Oruj told the parliamentary session that the president’s
statement should not be interpreted as a threat. He noted that
President Aliyev had expressed not only his own stance but also
that of the entire nation, as well as delivered a message to the
world community.

Igbal Agazada, chairman of opposition Umid (Hope) Party, blamed Russia
for the lingering Garabagh conflict. He opined that Moscow had caused
the dispute and it could be settled if Azerbaijan’s northern neighbor
sought a solution.

Agazada also suggested that the foreign minister, who is involved
in peace talks, should report to parliament on the matter. "Sooner
or later we have to find out what they want from us and what we want
in talks."

Sabir Rustamkhanly, chairman of the opposition-leaning Civil Solidarity
Party, said the opposition is not opposed to the president’s position
in Garabagh negotiations, but the president "should not be the only
one expressing the country’s stance." Along with the head of state,
Azerbaijan’s parliament, political parties and non-governmental
organizations should defend the country’s fair cause.

Panah Huseyn, an MP from opposition Musavat party, suggested disclosing
to the public the peace outline dubbed the Madrid principles, which
was submitted to Baku and Yerevan by the mediating OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs in late 2007. He claimed that one of these principles
envisions determining the status of Upper Garabagh through a
referendum, which would hurt Azerbaijan’s interests.

Baku says the occupied districts must be freed and Azerbaijani refugees
returned home, and only after that could the status of Upper Garabagh
be determined within the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

Fazil Gazanfaroghlu, chairman of the Great Establishment Party, noted
that speculations are made at times about Garabagh settlement talks,
suggesting that the leaders of the parties represented in parliament
be informed about the course of negotiations. At such a meeting, the
parliament leadership would notify party leaders about some details
of the negotiating process. The MP added that such a meeting should be
held behind closed doors and party leaders are to assume responsibility
to protect the confidentiality of information they obtain.*

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

TURKEY MAY APPOINT ETHNIC ARMENIAN NEGOTIATOR ON EU ADMISSION

AzerNews Weekly
Nov 27 2009
Azerbaijan

An ethnic Armenian Turkish citizen may reportedly be appointed to
the post of the expert dealing with talks on Turkey’s admission to
the European Union.

Leo Suren Alepli has been selected to the relevant secretariat from
among 115 candidates, Hurriyet newspaper said.

The country’s intelligence body will have the final say about his
appointment.

ALIYEV, MEDVEDEV HOLD ‘DETAILED’ TALKS ON GARABAGH

AzerNews Weekly
Nov 26 2009
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev
held detailed discussions on progress in the ongoing talks on the
Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict during their
meeting in Russia on Tuesday, the Russian President’s spokeswoman,
Natalya Timakova, said.

"Ilham Aliyev informed Dmitry Medvedev in detail about the outcomes
of another round of his negotiations with Armenian President
Serzh Sarkisian held with the participation of the Minsk Group
representatatives [the Russian, French and US co-chairs brokering
the peace process]," Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency quoted Timakova
as saying. "The Russian president welcomed the positive movement of
the negotiating process, assuring his counterparts that Moscow will
further make all the efforts necessary to achieve a settlement to
the Upper Garabagh conflict.

Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with the
signing of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy
part of Azerbaijani territory, including the Upper Garabagh region,
in defiance of international law. Peace talks have been largely
fruitless so far.

According to Timakova, Presidents Aliyev and Medvedev also discussed
issues of cooperation, including that in the field of economics,
as well as a schedule for further high-level contacts.

JAPAN TO AID ARMENIA IN CONFLICT SETTLEMENT

AzerNews Weekly
Nov 26 2009
Azerbaijan

Japan is ready to expand its political and economic cooperation with
Armenia and assist Yerevan in resolving the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh
conflict and in further normalization of its strained relations with
Turkey, the two governments announced after talks on Wednesday.

"The sides highlighted the importance of expanding political dialog
and economic relations between Japan and Armenia by supporting
mutually beneficial initiatives in different areas of cooperation,"
Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and his Armenian counterpart
Edward Nalbandian said in a joint statement seen by Russian state
news agency ITAR-TASS.

The Japanese government pledged to facilitate a peaceful Garabagh
settlement "based on the principles and norms of international law."

Tokyo also welcomed the process of reconciliation between Turkey
and Armenia, which began with the signing in Zurich on October 10 of
protocols on forging diplomatic ties and reopening their borders.

Turkish officials have repeatedly said Ankara could mend ties with
Yerevan and open the border only after the Garabagh conflict has been
fairly resolved.