BAKU: OSCE must keep its key role in resolution of NK conflict: UN

Trend, Azerbaijan
Nov 13 2009

OSCE must keep its key role in resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict: UN Under-Secretary-General

U.S, Washington, Nov. 13 / Trend News N.Bogdanova /

The OSCE must remain in its key role in South Caucasus, especially
when it comes to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, UN
Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief
Coordinator John Holmes believes.

"I think that the defrosting of any protracted negotiations is not
easy, but some revival concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh was noticed
recently and this is making us optimistic," he added.

Holmes expressed support to all the tactics and principles proposed by
OSCE Minsk Group. According to the top UN official, OSCE Minsk process
should come to some fruitarian. "Though this process will be difficult
for both Azerbaijan and Armenia, settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict is in the interests of both sides," he said.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. – are
currently holding the peace negotiations.

BAKU: Protocols allow Armenia to get tough with Azerbaijan: MP

Trend, Azerbaijan
Nov 13 2009

Protocols allow Armenia to get tough with Azerbaijan: MP

Azerbaijan, Baku, Nov. 13 / Trend News H.Nasibova /

The signing of the Turkish-Armenian protocols allows Yerevan to take a
tougher stance on Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani MP Ganira Pashayeva said at
the 21st-Century University in Ankara at an event dedicated to
Azerbaijani-Turkish relations.

"The signing of the protocols will allow Armenia to have a tougher
stance on Azerbaijan," the MP said.

Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward
Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocols in Zurich Oct. 10.

Turkey and Armenia in the talks mediated by Switzerland reached an
agreement to launch "domestic political consultations" Aug. 31 to sign
the "Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and
Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations," the Turkish
Foreign Ministry reported.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994.

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. –
are currently holding the peace negotiations.

According to Pashayeva, Armenia expects an even greater concession
from Azerbaijan after signing these protocols.

Unfortunately, Yerevan holds a strong "trump card," as the country
occupies Azerbaijani lands.

Azerbaijan’s trump card was that so far the Turkish-Armenian border
has been closed, which struck a severe blow to the Armenian economy,
she said.

According to the MP, the Ankara-Yerevan protocols deprived Azerbaijan
of this trump card.

Moscow is interested in opening the Turkey-Armenia border to improve
the economic situation in Armenia, she added.

Pashayeva said Azerbaijan has two choices – to apply military or
diplomatic pressure.

"The probability of war is not great. But in terms of diplomatic
pressure, this is even more difficult after the signing of the
Ankara-Yerevan protocols," she said.

After signing the Ankara-Yerevan protocols, Turkey said it will not
open its borders until Azerbaijani lands have been de-occupied.
However, no documents were issued supporting these claims.

Today Ankara hosted an event dedicated to Turkish-Azerbaijani
relations. Turkish intellectuals and Azerbaijani MPs Ganira Pashayeva
and Rabiyat Aslanova attended the meeting.

An end to slaughter

National Post (Canada)
November 13, 2009 Friday
National Edition

An end to slaughter

Daniel Jonah Goldhagen offers an ambitious plan to ensure the 21st
century isn’t as bloody as the 20th

Genocide is much discussed and poorly understood. It is regularly
decried, yet little is done to prevent it.

Perhaps we fail to prevent genocides not because they can’t be
stopped, and not just because we lack the will to stop them, but
because we have misunderstood their nature. Perhaps if we understood
genocide properly, a feasible path to stopping this scourge of
humanity would become apparent.

It may seem bold to say that we have not understood genocide. But,
after studying the subject for decades, that is the conclusion I have
reached. Genocides are so horrifying, so seemingly in defiance of the
ordinary rhythms of social life, so threatening to what we believe we
know about ourselves and the world — so out of this world — that we
don’t think clearly about them. We need to start over and rethink
their every aspect.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, mass murderers have killed
more, perhaps many more, than 100 million people — a much greater
number than have died as a consequence of conventional military
operations. So genocide is, by this fundamental measure, worse than
war.

Furthermore, people tend to think of our era’s mass slaughters — of
Armenians, Jews, Kurds, Bosnians, Tutsis, Kosovars, and Darfuris (not
to mention recent history’s long list of less-well-known mass murders)
— as discrete, unusual events. This is wrong: Large-scale mass murder
is a systemic feature of modern states and the international system.

The foundational problem, in fact, is not even genocide. Genocide,
however we define it, is but one expression of a broader and more
fundamental phenomenon: eliminationism.

Political and social conflicts among groups exist in all human
societies. In many societies, groups come to be seen as deleterious to
the well-being of the majority or, sometimes, a powerful minority. How
this happens and the character of the pernicious qualities projected
onto such groups vary enormously. When it does, people can deem the
perniciousness of such populaces to be so great that they want to
neutralize them by eliminating the group or by destroying its capacity
to inflict putative harm. So they employ any of the five principal
means of elimination: forced transformation, repression, expulsion,
prevention of reproduction, or extermination. But, whatever means they
choose, the desire and the attempt to eliminate peoples or groups
should be understood as the core problem.

Precisely because these eliminationist means are functional
equivalents, perpetrators typically use several of them
simultaneously. The Turks did so for the Armenians. The Germans did so
for the Jews. The Sudanese have done so for their victims, and so did
the Serbs.

Whenever we see these large-scale violent assaults, such as expulsions
or incarcerations mixed together with killing, we should immediately
recognize them as being eliminationist assaults, and respond to them
with all the vigor that we ought to apply to genocides. And we should
certainly not sit on our hands with pointless debates about
definitions — does it qualify as genocide? — as we have done with
the former Yugoslavia and Darfur. We should realize that the
non-lethal aspects of eliminationist assaults are as critical to
combat as the killing itself.

Appreciating this helps to make clear that the problem we are
confronting is even more vast and more urgent. Genocide and
eliminationism should no longer receive the third-rate treatment that
they currently do from our politicians: They should be at the core of
present and future international policy-making.

Beyond appreciating its breadth, there are two other crucial facts we
need to recognize about eliminationism.

First, it is a form of politics. Like war, eliminationism is the
extension of politics by other means. Political leaders use
eliminationist measures to maintain or further power, socially and
politically transform a country, defuse a real or putative threat,
purify a society according to some ideological blueprint, or achieve
any of many other aspirations. Mass murder and elimination are thus
politics not in a superficial sense, but at their core, because they
are purposeful, calculated acts of leaders meant to achieve political
goals.

Second, even though eliminationism may be grounded in widespread
beliefs among groups about the pernicious nature of other people, such
hatreds or prejudices are not what unleash eliminationist assaults.
Eliminationist assaults are not spontaneous popular outbursts. Like
other major state policies requiring large institutional mobilization
and regional or nationwide co-ordination, eliminationism is initiated
by one political leader or a small group of leaders, who at a specific
moment make a discrete decision to expel, kill, or otherwise eliminate
the targeted people.

Idi Amin initiated the slaughter of hundreds of thousands in Uganda.
Presidents Fernando Romeo Lucas Garcia and Jose Efrain Rios Montt were
responsible for the mass murder in Guatemala of Mayans under the guise
of counterinsurgency. Mengistu Haile Mariam masterminded and initiated
the various Ethiopian eliminationist programs. Pol Pot and the Khmer
Rouge leaders around him instituted the murderous policies that took
almost two million Cambodian lives. The Argentinean junta’s members
started the "dirty war" against their real and imagined enemies.
Augusto Pinochet authorized the slaughter of thousands in Chile. Hafez
Al Assad gave the order to indiscriminately murder people in the
Syrian town of Hama. Saddam Hussein orchestrated the annihilation of
hundreds of thousands of Iraqis. Slobodan Milo?evic enacted one
Serbian eliminationist onslaught after the next. Theoneste Bagosora,
the Rwandan Ministry of Defense’s director of services, and a small
circle of associates set in motion the comprehensive assault on the
Tutsis. Omar Al Bashir and the other political Islamists who run Sudan
initiated the mass murder of Darfuris. In none of these cases was the
eliminationist assault inevitable. These decision-makers could have
decided otherwise. They could have spared innumerable lives.

So why did they decide to do it? Even the most monstrous leaders have
also been pragmatic and purposeful politicians. All sought power and
all made every effort to keep it. Even when political leaders are —
like their followers, who willingly implement their policies
–animated by hatred, even when they dehumanize the targeted people,
they are still politicians, which means they are still interested in
power. They will pursue eliminationist policies only if they believe
these policies will succeed at enhancing their own power or furthering
cherished goals — that is, only if they believe the benefits to
themselves will outweigh the costs.

Recognizing that eliminationism — not only its most murderous
variant, genocide — is a widespread problem, and that it is a form of
politics, and that it is pursued by leaders who believe (almost always
correctly) that it will benefit them, how can we respond politically?

Past efforts have accomplished little. The 60-year-old U.N. Convention
on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide has proven
itself almost useless, and the United Nations, as the international
community’s lead institution, has been a foot-dragging disaster, doing
more to enable eliminationist leaders than to stop them. Special
tribunals and the International Criminal Court (ICC), all necessary
and good, have been too late, too slow, and too partial to be
effective — the ICC took more than five years from the start of the
Darfur genocide just to issue an unenforceable arrest warrant for Al
Bashir.

A robust anti-eliminationist system would contain three substantial
and interrelated components: prevention intervention, and punishment.

Currently, there is no prevention regime, only infrequent attempts at
intervention, and rarely any punishment. All three parts of such a
system need to be thought through, but preventing eliminationist
assaults, more than intervening to end them or punishing the
perpetrators after the fact, should be our initial focus.

Prevention works in two ways. First, changing the mindset of leaders
and creating conditions that make eliminationism utterly unworkable
removes it from the toolkit of political leaders so that pursuing such
politics does not even occur to them. Democratic institutions do this
effectively. Mass murder and elimination have ever more become
domestic rather than international matters. And not only do today’s
democracies not practice such domestic politics, but, it is fair to
say, eliminationism is not even a consideration for their leaders. A
world of democracies would be a world without mass murder, or, at
worst, with an enormously reduced incidence of it.

Second, and far more immediately effective and doable, is radically
altering the cost-benefit calculus of political leaders and the
immediate subordinates upon whom they rely, to make the price of
eliminationist politics so costly that leaders will not opt for it.

Let’s look at two possible measures for raising the price of
eliminationism. If leaders knew that initiating eliminationist
assaults would turn them into permanent outlaws — that is, the legal
doctrine of hostis humani generis (enemies of humanity), until now
applied to pirates, would apply to them for the rest of their lives
–and, if they understood that they would be relentlessly hunted until
they were brought to justice, their cost-benefit calculations would
radically change. If not just leaders but all their high-ranking
civilian and military subordinates were similarly declared
international outlaws (by dint of serving in institutions that,
according to international law, can clearly be deemed criminal
organizations) and subject to the same penalties as the political
leaders, those leaders would calculate their chances of enlisting
their subordinates, and relying on their cooperation, very
differently.

Of course, as the ICC has shown, indicting an eliminationist leader is
easier than bringing him to justice. But what if the democratic
countries of the world were to adopt a modified version of the United
States’s Rewards for Justice program — which has led to the capture
and killing of major terrorists and, when instituted after the fact,
Rwandan genocidaires — guaranteeing that any eliminationist assault
would immediately trigger million-dollar bounties being placed on the
heads of political and military leaders and their high-ranking
subordinates? Then the critical conditions of deterrence would be met.
No political leader, wanting the good life, would want to be wanted
dead or alive.

There are other deterrents available as well. Most dictators rely on
their militaries to stay in power. If dictators understood that their
eliminationist policies would trigger the destruction of their
country’s military capability, then this also would be a powerful
disincentive. Under such a policy, political leaders would quickly
learn: If they choose to initiate an eliminationist assault, the
world’s democracies, led by the United States, would bomb their
military bases and forces (steadfastly avoiding population centers and
civilian infrastructure).

If in 1900 you had said that it would be possible to end imperialism,
few would have believed you. Imperialism, after all, had been a fact
of the human condition for millennia. Likewise if you had said that it
would be possible to stop war from being the principal means by which
a large percentage of the countries of the world relate to one
another. Yet each has occurred. The notion that we could end
eliminationism– a phenomenon that has existed as long as humanity
–may seem similarly fanciful today. But it is much less unrealistic
than it sounds. – Daniel Jonah Goldhagen is the author of Worse Than
War: Genocide, Eliminationism, and the Ongoing Assault on Humanity,
from which this piece is adapted.

War in Georgia exposed S. Caucasus countries’ vulnerability, Semneby

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 13, 2009 Friday

"WAR IN GEORGIA EXPOSED SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES’ VULNERABILITY"

by Olga Allenova

AN INTERVIEW WITH PETER SEMNEBY, EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE
SOUTH CAUCASUS; An interview with Peter Semneby, EU Special
Representative for the South Caucasus.

Another round of the Caucasus security talks in Geneva, Switzerland,
will be the first following publication of the report on the war in
South Ossetia drawn by a special EU Commission. Here is an interview
with Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus,
on what disturbs the European Union in the region, why Moscow and
Tbilisi differ in their interpretations of the report, and what effect
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia may have on
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution efforts.

Question: It is going to be the eighth round of the consultations but
the process is essentially fruitless. Why would the EU attach all this
importance to this format then?

Peter Semneby: No, I wouldn’t call it fruitless. Seven meetings took
place, each attended by high-ranking representatives of all involved
parties. It is an important accomplishment in itself. As for the
results, the consultations did set up incident prevention mechanisms,
didn’t they? Granted that it was not much in terms of the expected
breakthrough… even small steps lead us to the desired objective. I
do not even like to think about what it would have been without this
forum or without observers in the area. Any incident would have been
capable of sparking new escalation.

Question: Do you think the report drawn by Heidi Tagliavini Commission
will have any effect on the nature of the talks in Geneva?

Peter Semneby: What really counts, I believe, is that this report
enabled us to finally stop looking over our shoulders and start
looking forward. The report shed light on what had happened. It is a
lesson for all of us to keep in mind.

Question: The report in question was supposed to put an end to the
debates over who had begun the war in South Ossetia. The document
states that Georgia began the war. Official Tbilisi in the meantime
makes an emphasis on the part of the report that covers the pre-war
period, one which states that Russia did its part to abet escalation
of tension too. How do you find these differences in interpretations?

Peter Semneby: It’s hardly surprising. After all, these two countries
were at war and not that long ago.

The report analyzes the following periods: before the war, its
beginning, the war as such, and post-war. That all involved parties
disagree over their interpretation is something to be expected. Why
focus attention on August 7 and 8? It all began long before that. The
matter concerns the relations between Georgia and minorities on the
one hand and between Georgia and Russia on the other. Escalation
lasted at least a year before the outbreak of the war. Remember how a
Russian missile fell in Georgia? Tension all over the region literally
soared then.

Question: What consequences of the report shall we expect then?

Peter Semneby: No need to talk about consequences because punishing
anyone is not what the report is about or for. The EU Commission ran
this investigation to enable the international community to know what
had happened and concentrate on negotiation of the consequences of the
conflict. We are talking the lessons we hope the involved parties
learned.

Question: And what lessons are they? What did the European Union
learn? Had it been possible for the European Union to prevent the war?

Peter Semneby: Regrettably, the European Union did underestimate the
risks. It could have done more for prevention of the conflict. Had our
presence in the region been more impressive, it would have played its
part, I think.

Question: EU observers are restricted to Georgia alone, these days.
They are not permitted in Abkhazia or South Ossetia. Does the EU think
that this state of affairs impairs its ability to influence the
situation in general?

Peter Semneby: Yes, presence of our observers over there is
preferable. We hope that they understand now that the European Union
is only playing a thoroughly stabilizing role in the region. Or that
its capacities are not exhausted at all.

Question: Some experts say that another Russian-Georgian war is at
least a possibility…

Peter Semneby: That’s why we have observers in Georgia. That’s why we
attach importance to the talks in Geneva.

Question: The current activization of the dialogue between Armenia and
Turkey… Do you think the border between these two countries will be
opened before a solution to the Karabakh problem is found?

Peter Semneby: This opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia
will bring the region a step closer to normalization of a definitely
abnormal situation when three longest borders in it are closed. I mean
the borders between Armenia and Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
Russia and Georgia.

The Armenian-Turkish relations have reached the threshold of a much
needed breakthrough. Process of ratification will be difficult of
course, but ratification is in the interests of Armenia and Turkey
alike. I’m even convinced that it is in the interests of Azerbaijan
too, or will be in the long run, because the opening of the borders in
the region will benefit all countries including Azerbaijan. The war in
Georgia exposed vulnerability of all countries of the South Caucasus.
Solution to all these problems will do away with this vulnerability. I
have no doubts that this is how the Armenian leadership sees it. I do
not doubt that Armenia understands that the status quo in the matter
of Nagorno-Karabakh is not in its interests… nor that it will remain
unchanged forever.

What we need throughout the Caucasus is trust. And trust is not to be
reestablished without activeness on the part of the third parties like
the European Union and Russia.

Question: And yet, recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia
set a precedent that complicates the solution to the problem of
Karabakh the European Union has been promoting.

Peter Semneby: Do not make the mistake of exaggerating parallels
between these conflicts. Of course, it’s quite problematic and
unacceptable for us that Russia recognized these territories as
sovereign states. It requires some serious and complicated talks yet,
talks with Russia included. In any event, we have common priorities in
other spheres which means that no disagreement between the European
Union and Russia over Georgia is supposed to interfere with our
conflict resolution efforts elsewhere.

Source: Kommersant, November 10, 2009, p. 8

USAID-Yerevan grants notice to implement "alternative resources"

US State News
November 14, 2009 Saturday 6:54 PM EST

ARMENIA USAID-YEREVAN ISSUES GRANTS NOTICE TO IMPLEMENT ‘ALTERNATIVE
RESOURCES IN MEDIA PROGRAM’ WITH USAID-PROVIDED FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE

WASHINGTON, Nov. 13 — Armenia USAID-Yerevan issues discretionary
grants notice to implement the "ALTERNATIVE RESOURCES IN MEDIA
PROGRAM" with USAID-provided financial assistance. Estimated total
program funding is $4,000,000.

The funding opportunity number is RFA-111-10-000001. It was posted on
Nov 13, 2009 with an application closing date of Dec 18, 2009.

Category of Funding Activity is Other.

Expected Number of Awards: 1

Eligible Applicants: Unrestricted (i.e., open to any type of entity
above), subject to any clarification in text field entitled
"Additional Information on Eligibility"

Additional Information on Eligibility

The description of the Grants Notice is "The USAID/Armenia is seeking
applications from qualified and eligible organizations to implement
the "ALTERNATIVE RESOURCES IN MEDIA PROGRAM" with USAID-provided
financial assistance. The authority for this RFA is found in the
Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended. USAID intends to make
available up to $4,000,000 and award a single Cooperative Agreement (a
form of a grant) to fund the successful Applicant’s Program designed
to achieve objectives and results matching those described in the RFA
Section C. USAID will make funds available incrementally. Program
implementation is expected to be fully completed within four years. It
is anticipated that award will be made in mid-March, 2010. The main
focus of the program is to diversify content, utilizing high-tech and
"low-tech" means to produce and distribute news and information vital
to Armenians, and assisting citizens in transforming themselves from
passive users of information to being active information producers and
dispensers. The three key related components of the program are:
production and dissemination of alternative content; promoting media
literacy and consumer demand; and public advocacy in support of
information diversity and a freer media along with closely monitoring
and reporting on media coverage.".

Armenia In Search of Geopolitical Advantage

Politkom.ru , Russia
Nov 11 2009

Armenia In Search of Geopolitical Advantage

by Sergey Markedonov

On 5 November 2009, the NATO Secretary General’s Special
Representative in the Caucasus and Central Asia, Robert Simmons,
visited Yerevan. The program schedule of the high-level NATO
official’s visit was rather heavy. Simmons met with the president of
the republic, Serge Sarkisyan, as well as with the secretary of the
Armenian Security Council, Artur Bagdasaryan, the head of the MFA
[Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (and one of the signers of the Zurich
Protocols with Turkey), Edward Nalbandyan, Speaker of Parliament Ovik
Abramyan, and Minister of Defense Seyran Oganyan. Aside from the
general politically correct statements about the need for progress in
the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh regulation and Armenian-Turkish
reconciliation, the NATO secretary general’s special representative
drew several principally important conclusions regarding Armenia’s
relations with NATO…

According to Simmons, "in the past year, relations between NATO and
Armenia have developed very dynamically." Therefore, the special
representative expressed "satisfaction" at this process, because,
according to his observations, "these relations enjoy the support of
broad strata of Armenian society." Furthermore, high-level officials
of the Republic of Armenia also expressed their satisfaction at the
level of cooperation with the leading military-political bloc of the
present-day world. According to the chief diplomat of Armenia, Edward
Nalbandyan, Armenia intends to continue to strengthen mutually
advantageous cooperation with the Alliance. The secretary of the
republic’s Security Council, Artur Bagdasaryan, was more specific in
his appraisal of the directions of this cooperation. He noted that,
within the scope of the program of Individual Partnership (IPAP
[Individual Partnership Action Plan]), important reforms are being
implemented in his country in the sphere of defense, security, and
emergency situations. And finally, President of Armenia Serge
Sarkisyan emphasized that the relations of his country and NATO "are
beneficial, instructive and necessary not only in the military
sphere."

The visit by the NATO special representative to Yerevan proved to be
outside the focus of journalistic attention. On the background of two
difficult processes (Armenian-Turkish reconciliation, which after
signing of the two protocols, has somewhat "wound down," and the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, which, it appears, is, on the
contrary, just revving up), the visit of the NATO official appears as
a not very important event. Especially since this trip did not bring
any geopolitical breakthroughs of irreversible importance. And
Simmons’ visits to Yerevan are themselves not much of a rarity.
Ultimately, the job of NATO secretary general’s special representative
to two vital regions of Eurasia obligates him to this. But all of this
is only at first glance. And the problem here is not that Armenia is
beginning to re-orient itself toward the West or toward the structures
of the Alliance, forgetting its allegiance to the CSTO. This visit
clearly shows certain important regularities in the foreign policy of
not only Armenia, but also of all the post-Soviet republics, which are
very often ignored both by politicians, and by the expert community,
and by journalists (who are largely the re-translators of political
and political studies theses). We will note that these regularities
are often ignored, either out of folly, or consciously (based on
propagandistic considerations). As a result, an agenda is formed that
is not entirely adequate, with greatly heightened expectations (and
sometimes even overstated goals). The implementation of such an agenda
is generally impossible or difficult. But attempts to make this
"fairytale" into reality often make it difficult for Russia to retain
its positions even where it must have them by definition. Therefore,
Simmons’ visit to the capital of Armenia should be viewed as a good
informational pretext for holding a substantive discussion about the
aforementioned regularities.

In the course of his last visit to Yerevan, Simmons repeatedly tried
to attract the attention of Armenian politicians and journalists to
the following thesis: Armenia’s cooperation with NATO does not mean
geopolitical competition with Russia, or edging Russia out of the
Transcaucasus. Meanwhile, Moscow has already long viewed any contacts
by any post-Soviet republic with NATO practically as a challenge to
Russian foreign policy. We cannot say that such conclusions were
entirely unfounded (especially in connection with the situation
surrounding Georgia and Ukraine). However, often in Russian diplomatic
circles there is an exaggerated re-appraisal of both the potential of
NATO (where there are both harsh opponents of Russia, and countries
that actively cooperate with our country), and the West in general.
All of the foreign policy actions on the territory of the former USSR
are viewed as head-to-head opposition between the Russian Federation
and the West. Nevertheless, there is no such frontal opposition. And
there are several reasons and explanations for this. First of all,
Russia itself is interested in cooperation with the Alliance (of
course, not out of altruistic considerations, but based on its own
national interests). This explains the transit of military cargo for
Afghanistan, and the opportunities for broad cooperation in Central
Asia. In this sense, Russian diplomacy has an understanding of the
fact that national interests do not contradict cooperation with the
Alliance, if only because this is the largest military-political bloc
in the world, which has common boundaries with your country. However,
Moscow does not have the same understanding as applied to other
post-Soviet republics, and this is based on a lack of understanding of
the new realities. We (whether we like it or not, that is another
question that does not bear direct relation to this matter) are
already faced not with subjects of our own state, but with nationally
independent formations, whose views, by simple definition, cannot
coincide with the positions of the largest power in Eurasia.

Meanwhile, the former brothers of the Russian Federation from the USSR
are following the path of partnership with NATO certainly not out of
selfless love for "democratic values." If we speak of Armenia (the
main subject of our article), its interest toward the Alliance is
explained by several reasons. The first may be viewed as a certain
neutralization of Azerbaijani influence in the West in general.
Azerbaijan has repeatedly emphasized its North Atlantic vector of
foreign policy. In this connection, Yerevan understands perfectly well
that, if it gives this arena to Baku, then the Balkan situation may be
reproduced in the South Caucasus, when a strong military-political
bloc will act on someone’s side. By cooperating with NATO, Yerevan is
thereby placing the Alliance in the position of choosing between it
and Baku. This position is easier to attain, because Armenia and
Azerbaijan are in approximately the same category of cooperation with
the Alliance (they are working in the IPAP project). And since Russia
does not have any common boundaries with Armenia, the fairly good
relations with one of the "poles" of international policy add their
"two cents" to the stabilization of the situation in the South
Caucasus. Unlike Georgia, Azerbaijan does not have a 100-percent "NATO
factor" standing behind it, which keeps (along with the CSTO factor)
Baku from implementing those ideas which the leadership of that
country expresses from time to time. The second reason is associated
with the CSTO. It is obvious that Armenia joined this association not
to be drawn into the Central Asian agenda. Yerevan also understood
perfectly well that Kazakhstan, Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan would not
help it resolve the Karabakh problem to its advantage.

However, an alliance with Moscow and joint protection of the Armenian
border with Russian border guards and military (especially after the
"5-day war") is a rather reliable factor. But without common
boundaries with the Russian Federation, it cannot be the only one, and
concentration of efforts only on the CSTO alone is fraught with
greater activity in Central Asia, in which Armenia is not very
interested. However, under conditions of Armenia’s isolation (until
the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border), NATO is a sort of
additional "auditory window" for that country. The third reason is
associated with the domestic situation, and specifically with the
modernization of the Armenian national army (this may be realized only
with consideration of all the leading international military
experience, including Russian, Soviet and NATO achievements). This
explains Yerevan’s simultaneous interest both in the CSTO, with Moscow
at its head, and in NATO, where Washington plays the decisive role.
And Armenia does not want to choose between them. And it probably will
not do so. Then again, stepped up contacts with NATO may pose Yerevan
with practically the same question as the country’s membership in the
CSTO. We are talking about using Armenian peacekeepers in Afghanistan
(an important goal for global policy, but hardly of any great current
importance for Armenia).

[translated from Russian]

ANKARA: Turkey EU negotiator urges Swedish parliament to reject bill

Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Nov 13 2009

Turkey’s EU negotiator urges Swedish parliament not to adopt Armenian bill

Stockholm, 13 November: Turkish State Minister & Chief Negotiator for
the EU talks Egemen Bagis said on Friday [13 November] that Turkey was
not disregarding its problems any more but try to solve them.

"If we work hand in hand, Turkey may become the centre of peace and
tranquillity in its region in the next 10 years," Bagis said.

Bagis took the floor at "Security and Development Policies Institute",
and at a meeting where journalists, representatives of think-tank
organizations and politicians attended and briefed them about the
developments in Turkey and relations with the EU.

Releasing a statement after the talks, Bagis said the decisions made
related with the Armenian allegations in the congress of Social
Democrat Party in Sweden regarding 1915 incidents offended Turkish
people.

"I hope the decisions in question would not be passed from the Swedish
Parliament," Bagis said.

Bagis later proceeded to Swedish Parliament and met Swedish
Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Commission Chairman Goran Lennmark.

Lennmark extended support to Turkey’s EU bid and noted that Turkey’s
membership to the EU would be in the interests of both parties. He
also eulogized Turkey’s reforms.

Bagis is expected to attend a lunch to be hosted by International
Development Cooperation Minister Gunilla Carlsson and later have a
tete-a-tete meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.

Le genocide armenien sur la scene turque

Le Monde, France
15 novembre 2009 dimanche

Le génocide arménien sur la scène turque

par Guillaume Perrier (Diyarbakir, Turquie, envoyé spécial)

Ce n’est qu’une pièce de théâtre. Une sorte de fable poétique
explorant les tourments de l’identité arménienne. Sauf que, grâce Ã
elle, pour la première fois, jeudi 12 novembre, dans la ville kurde de
Diyarbakir, au sud-est de la Turquie, le génocide de 1915 a trouvé sa
place sur une scène du pays. Le Proverbe turc et le Concert arménien,
écrit et interprété par Gérard Torikian et mis en scène par Serge
Avédikian, deux artistes français d’origine arménienne, prend pour
toile de fond le massacre des Arméniens et leurs relations avec les
Turcs. Torikian jongle avec les personnages et les allégories, passe
d’un pianiste arménien qui joue la Marche turque à un pacha ottoman
qui fait marcher les Arméniens vers la mort.

Il égratigne avec humour, mais sans ménagement, le déni du génocide. "
Il faut agir résolument. Il faut éliminer les éléments non turcs de la
population (…), déclare froidement l’officier ottoman. Plus tard,
nous dirons que rien ne s’est passé. Et celui qui dira le contraire,
on le fera taire. "

" Prendre la place de l’autre "

Les détails les plus crus apparaissent à travers l’histoire d’un
berger turc qui nie farouchement les sévices infligés à un agneau
arménien. Mais, à la fin, deux marionnettes antagonistes ouvrent le
dialogue. " J’ai toujours pensé que le seul moyen de sortir de cette
pathologie qui frappe les Arméniens et les Turcs était de prendre la
place de l’autre. C’est un désir de dialogue, mais surtout, pour moi,
il n’y a pas d’autre moyen d’avancer ", explique Torikian. Le public
de Diyarbakir, où vivait, avant le génocide, une forte communauté
arménienne, a été particulièrement réceptif à la démarche : les Kurdes
ont, eux aussi, été les victimes du déni de l’Etat turc. Trois autres
représentations seront proposées à Istanbul, lundi 16 et mardi 17.

La pièce a pu être jouée en Turquie grâce à l’engagement d’Osman
Kavala – mécène atypique d’Istanbul et fondateur de l’ONG Anadolu
Kültür -, qui a ouvert un centre d’art à Diyarbakir et développe des
projets culturels en Anatolie. C’est aussi le signe du changement qui
secoue la société turque, faisant tomber les tabous historiques. Les
deux pays ont signé en octobre des accords diplomatiques prévoyant la
réouverture de la frontière commune, fermée depuis 1994. Une brèche
est déjà ouverte.

Le glissement geopolitique de la Turquie inquiete Israel

Le Monde, France
11 novembre 2009 mercredi

Le glissement géopolitique de la Turquie inquiète Israël

par Laurent Zecchini

Avec le temps et la récurrence des résolutions des Nations unies,
Israël s’est fait une raison. La dernière en date, qui entérine les
conclusions du rapport Goldstone sur les " crimes de guerre " commis
lors de la guerre de Gaza de l’hiver 2008, ne fait pas exception à la
règle. Mais Israël commence à mesurer que les dégâts diplomatiques
causés par son offensive militaire contre le sanctuaire du Hamas, et
son intransigeance dans le processus de paix israélo-palestinien, ont
fait une victime collatérale : sa relation spéciale, si précieuse,
avec la Turquie.

L’annulation, début octobre, par Ankara de la participation d’Israël
aux manoeuvres aériennes " Aigle anatolien ", était le signe d’un
malaise plus profond. Ce qui se déroule au Moyen-Orient sur le plan
géostratégique s’apparente au phénomène de la tectonique des plaques.
Dans ce " grand jeu " régional qui voit la Turquie se rapprocher de
ses voisins musulmans, Israël n’a guère d’atouts en main.

Or l’Etat juif, eu égard à son isolement régional, doit cultiver son
allié turc. D’autant qu’avec l’Egypte et la Jordanie, il entretient
une paix froide. Depuis l’époque ottomane, lorsque la Sublime Porte
protégeait les juifs, l’histoire des relations israélo-turques est
dépourvue de graves contentieux bilatéraux. Dans la période récente,
Israël a mis au service d’Ankara le crédit dont il dispose
traditionnellement à Washington.

Non seulement l’Etat juif s’est gardé de condamner le génocide
arménien de 1915, mais il a oeuvré pour que le Congrès américain fasse
de même. Lorsque les deux pays signent un accord de coopération
militaire, en 1996, la Turquie a des relations difficiles avec six de
ses voisins. Israël, Etat militarisé qui se vit entouré d’ennemis, a
bien de points communs avec une Turquie où l’Etat dans l’Etat,
l’armée, supplante la société civile.

La Turquie a bénéficié de la coopération militaire israélienne,
notamment dans sa lutte contre le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan
(PKK). En échange, les avions de chasse de Tsahal s’entraînent chaque
année sur la base aérienne de Konya, en Anatolie. Enfin, sans le dire,
la Turquie n’est pas mécontente qu’Israël joue le rôle du bad cop –
méchant flic – vis-Ã-vis de l’Iran, dont les efforts pour se doter de
l’arme nucléaire l’inquiètent.

Deux facteurs vont changer cette donne : l’émergence en Turquie du
parti islamiste AKP, en 2002, et l’invasion américaine de l’Irak en
2003, qui a mis à rude épreuve les relations américano-turques. La
Turquie s’est peu à peu débarrassée du corset américain, a revitalisé
ses racines musulmanes et ottomanes, s’est fortifiée grâce à sa
croissance économique, et a décidé, enfin, de transformer les
frustrations de sa candidature à l’Union européenne en appétits de
puissance moyen-orientale.

Elle s’est rapprochée de la Syrie, de l’Iran, de l’Irak et de l’Arabie
saoudite, notamment sur le plan commercial, et s’est faite le champion
de la médiation tous azimuts. Israël a été pris de court par cette
Turquie vibrionnante. D’abord parce qu’Ankara n’a plus besoin des bons
offices israéliens à Washington. Ensuite parce qu’Israël a sous-estimé
la charge émotionnelle de la question palestinienne à Ankara. La
relation privilégiée israélo-turque était admissible tant que l’espoir
des accords d’Oslo de 1993 perdurait.

La seconde Intifada, en 2000, et surtout la guerre de Gaza rendent le
partenariat israélien plus encombrant, a fortiori pour une Turquie qui
entend nouer un partenariat stratégique avec la Syrie, qui accueille,
à Ankara, les présidents iranien et soudanais, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad et
Omar Al-Bachir, ainsi que le chef politique du Hamas, Khaled Meschaal.
" Les pilotes israéliens qui lâchent des bombes sur les enfants de
Gaza sont entraînés en Turquie ", a souligné l’opposition turque.

Le premier ministre turc, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a souligné benoîtement
que son pays ne fait que " normaliser " sa politique étrangère, mais
Israël s’inquiète. La Turquie donne des gages de bonne volonté,
offrant de relancer sa médiation entre Israël et la Syrie. Or, ce
n’est pas le récent arraisonnement du cargo Francop, bourré d’armes Ã
destination de la Syrie, et sans doute du Hezbollah, qui va établir un
climat de confiance avec Damas.

Benyamin Nétanyahou réclame dorénavant des " négociations directes "
avec la Syrie, mais c’est un trompe-l’oeil. M. Nétanyahou sait que
Bachar Al-Assad prendrait un risque politique important en négociant
directement avec l’" ennemi sioniste ". Israël semble davantage
intéressé par le " processus " de paix avec la Syrie, que par la paix
elle-même, dont le prix à payer est connu : la restitution du plateau
du Golan. La perspective d’un Moyen-Orient où les ennemis arabes et
musulmans d’hier deviennent des alliés stratégiques n’est pas de bon
augure pour Israël.

Sa relation privilégiée avec Ankara perd de sa substance à mesure
qu’elle devient asymétrique : la Turquie ambitionne de devenir un soft
power dans la région, alors que l’Etat juif croit toujours aux vertus
de la diplomatie de la force. Les relations bilatérales peuvent
s’améliorer, mais Ankara y met désormais une condition : que les
Palestiniens de Gaza et de Cisjordanie puissent renouer avec l’espoir
de la paix. Des deux partenaires, c’est Israël qui a le plus à perdre
: il n’a qu’un seul allié musulman au Moyen-Orient.

Ankara et Paris esquissent quelques gestes de rapprochement

Le Monde, France
8 novembre 2009 dimanche

Ankara et Paris esquissent quelques gestes de rapprochement

Natalie Nougayrède

Les points de friction au sujet du gazoduc Nabucco et des vols
militaires français ont été supprimés, sur fond de consultations pour
le Moyen-Orient

Le " climat a fait d’énormes progrès ", a commenté devant la presse le
ministre français des affaires étrangères, Bernard Kouchner, vendredi
6 novembre, aux côtés de son homologue turc, Ahmet Davutoglu. Celui-ci
effectuait une visite à Paris un mois après le déplacement en France
du président turc, Abdullah Gül, auquel Nicolas Sarkozy avait réservé
un accueil plutôt distant.

Dans la matinée, M.Davutoglu était reçu à l’Elysée par le conseiller
diplomatique, Jean-David Levitte. La conversation a porté notamment
sur l’Iran et son programme nucléaire, un dossier sur lequel la
Turquie aimerait jouer les médiateurs, en se prévalant de sa capacité
à " parler à tout le monde " y compris à Téhéran, ce qui n’est pas le
cas de la France.

Sur ce sujet iranien, les nuances sont fortes entre Paris et Ankara.
Comme l’a rappelé vendredi M. Davutoglu, lors d’une conférence Ã
l’Académie diplomatique, la Turquie ne croit pas en la vertu d’une
politique de sanctions et n’hésite pas à comparer pareille approche
avec celle qui avait démontré ses limites en Irak, avant 2003, du
temps de Saddam Hussein.

Mais au moment où les inquiétudes montent sur les dossiers
stratégiques, du Proche-Orient à l’Afghanistan-Pakistan, la Turquie et
la France semblent vouloir supprimer des points de friction dans la
relation bilatérale.

" Approches communes "

Ainsi, deux gestes ont été faits côté turc, sans donner lieu à des
annonces officielles, comme si ces problèmes n’avaient jamais existé.
D’une part, la Turquie a levé son opposition à l’entrée de GDF dans le
gazoduc Nabucco, alors qu’elle manifestait depuis des années, par ce
blocage, sa réprobation de la législation française à propos du
génocide arménien.

D’autre part, Ankara a cessé il y a environ trois mois d’imposer
certaines restrictions aux droits de survol du territoire turc par des
avions militaires français en route vers l’Afghanistan, ainsi qu’aux
droits de mouillage des navires militaires français dans les ports
turcs. Les officiels français étaient, depuis 2007, très irrités par
ces mesures émanant d’un partenaire de l’OTAN.

Le signal turc sur Nabucco – sans doute d’autant mieux accueilli côté
français que ce tuyau pourrait un jour évacuer du gaz d’Irak vers
l’Europe – remonte à la visite du président Gül à Paris, début
octobre. Il n’a été confirmé publiquement que vendredi, par M.
Davutoglu, qui dit avoir une " approche très positive " à propos de la
participation de GDF. " Merci à nos amis turcs ", a dit M. Kouchner.

Côté français, le vocabulaire employé semble soudain devenu plus
avenant. Il y a entre les deux pays " un climat de confiance qui règne
", des " approches communes " qui se dessinent, selon M. Kouchner. La
diplomatie française cherche de la visibilité et des synergies sur les
dossiers du Proche-Orient, où M. Kouchner doit se rendre
prochainement. M. Sarkozy s’apprête à recevoir à Paris le premier
ministre israélien, Benyamin Nétanyahou, puis le président syrien,
Bachar Al-Assad.

Mais à l’occasion de la visite de M. Davutoglu, rien n’a été dit
publiquement de l’Union pour la Méditerranée (UPM), projet en péril
que Paris tente de sauver comme éventuel cadre pour des discussions
régionales.