RUSSIA- A THREAT TO ARMENIA
Hrant Ter-Abrahamean
Lragir.am
20/11/09
During the last one year, conversations on the stability and peace
establishment in the Caucasus, settlement of conflicts and other
"good" things again activated. Of course, these conversations have been
accompanying us for the latest 20 years, but since 2008 we have been
witnessing if not revolutionary but at least unexpected developments
– Russian-Georgian war, (under the name of Osettian-Georgian war)
Russian-Turkish relations (under the name of Armenian and Turkish
normalization), and today the direction seems to have changed towards
the Arstakh issue "settlement" (you may guess the right name of this
settlement-Russian- Azerbaijani settlement).
In addition, the point is that not only Russia but also the U.S.,
which has come to some agreement with it, is involved in these
processes. We have to note that the above-mentioned processes in
reality do not have anything in common with the real stability,
peace and establishment of independence in the region. Very likely,
the solutions to the current conflicts are to be looked for not in
modern geopolitical contexts but in medieval manuscripts.
Russia- the main threat to Armenia’s independence
The current so-called South Caucasus is not only a part of the former
Russian Empire but in reality still makes a part of it. During 20 years
which is a short historical period, the former empire suburb could
not reach independence coming out of the empire circles especially
considering the fact that the former and present mother country does
not encourage such a process. This means that the main threat to
the regional and in particular Armenian independence is and remains
Russia. I would like to stress Armenia. The impression is that we do
not realize or remember from whom we became independent. The present
territory of the Republic of Armenia is a former part of the Russian
Empire and separated from the latter in addition in a willful struggle
in 1988-91. The Armenian potential rival is not that much Turkey or
Azerbaijan but Russia.
What is said, must be understood right: the point is not about
declaring war to Russia tomorrow, demanding the withdrawal of the
Russian military bases, forbiddance of the Russian language, repression
of Molokans etc. We just need to acknowledge and understand that the
main threat to the Armenian independence is Moscow and to work out
our strategy proceeding from this idea.
Phases of the Empire
The "moves" of the Russian Empire (from now on just Empire) are the
main strategical threat to Armenia. The model is the following. Very
roughly saying, the Empire may have two types of "moves". The one
towards dramatic weakening, the second towards the restoration of the
previous power and its development. Both may be assessed as equally
dangerous and unprecedented from the point of the security of the
former Empire suburbs. The ideal would be something in the middle, when
the Empire weakens but not much to collapse. This is more expedient for
the independence of the former Empire suburbs of course if the latter
has respective leadership able to solve the independence issue. But
the last circumstance mainly depends on the Empire "distance".
Some historical examples may be brought for this model not to seem very
strained. In the 9th century, Armenia managed to acquire independence
from the Arabic Caliphate when the Byzantium Empire was weakening, in
other words, Armenia needed this weakening, but the existence of the
Byzantium Empire was a guarantee for the existence of the Christian
countries bordering with the Muslim world. The strengthening of the
Byzantium Empire in the 11th century brought about another loss of
the Armenian independence. The next phase of the Byzantium weakening
helped the Armenians from Cilicia become independent.
The history with the Russian empire is almost the same. In the 18th
century, when the Russian Empire was very wide but not strong enough
to get mixed in the affairs of the territories situated to the South
from Caucasus, this situation promoted the cultural and polticial
bettering of the Armenian and Georgian relations. And the further
expanding of the Empire brought about the Georgian independence and
the loss of hope for the Armenian independence. In the19 century,
being in the zone of communication of two Empires -Russian and Ottoman
brought about the elimination and deportation of a part of the peoples
of the region. I mean North-Caucasian people (including Abkhazia
people) genocides by Russia, and the Armenian extermination by the
Turks. These two phenomena are to be viewed in the same context. But
this is another topic.
In the beginning of the 20th century, Russia’s weakening created
possibilities for another independence and its becoming powerful
brought about both independence and loss of territories. And in the end
of the 20th century, the weakening of the Russian Empire enabled us to
become independent. But the fact that Armenia is still in the virtual
territory of the Empire is sure. This may be proved by the facts that
very often events in the Armenian home polticial life enter in an
interesting resonance with events happening in Russia. In 1998-99,
the passage of power from the resigned president to the "dark horse"
prime minister followed by unprecedented terrorist actions, established
a revengeful regime.
>>From the division of Georgia to the surrender of Armenia
The developments of the last one year and a half must be explained as
another attempt of scale-worshiping "move" of the Empire. The Russian
and Georgian war, the Georgian defeat and division must be viewed as a
challenge from the point of the Armenian independence. Georgia is one
of the main guarantees of the Armenian independence. And the fact that
the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement was born right after the Georgian
division is interesting. It is not so difficult to see a connection
between the Russian-Georgian and Armenian-Turkish processes. Today
a new direction is noticed – Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement which
also can be viewed in the context of the Russian-Georgian war and
the new moves of the Empire.
But another two regularities are to be taken into consideration.
Empire A helps other empires not on its account but on account of
its vassals. The Empire B does not create conditions for peace on
its borders, but on the contrary, it creates conflicts. This means
the current normalization processes are just illusions. In reality,
the point is about the elimination of conflicts created by the Empire
which do not make sense any longer.
So, the key for the regional stability, peace and independence should
not be looked for in the geopolitical games of superpowers. The key
is in the region itself.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress