Month: December 2008

ARMS TRADE SCANDAL IN RELATION TO POLITICS
Andrei Nikolski (Ukraine)

en.fondsk.ru
12.12.2008

On 2 September, when President Viktor Yuschenko said Moscow was going
to carry out a coup in Ukraine dubbed as "Georgia-2", Verkhovna Rada
established the Interim Investigation Commission on illegal deliveries
of arms and military equipment from Ukraine to Georgia under control
of the Party of Regions (PR) MP Valeriy Konovalyuk. From the very
start Mr.

Yushchenko and his allies resisted the investigation. Any attempts
to make the information on the investigation public are nipped in
the bud as biased and aimed at "disclosing state secrecy".

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) accused Mr. Konovalyuk personally
of disclosing state secrecy and applied pressure on mass media for
attempts to publish at least some pieces of documents or an interview
with Konovalyuk.

The SSU officials had even abducted one of the correspondents for
DailyUA online paper and seized its content. The abducted journalist
Nazar Tsapka was interrogated by a group of people including the
SSU Spokeswoman Marina Ostapenko. Ukraine’s journalistic circles
were annoyed at the fact that she actively intimidated the abducted
journalist. Supported by the PR MP A. German, Nazar Tsapka was freed.

However, the SSU officials hardly even expected to learn some exclusive
information from the abducted journalist. Their aim was to t hreaten
him: "Do not interfere if you value your health". This was not the
first time when "oranges" used the national law-enforcement agencies to
apply pressure on mass media. In July 2008 S. Leshchenko, a journalist
for "The Ukrainian Truth", spent more than 13 hours at the Prosecutor`s
Office being interrogated over his interview with a MP David Zhvania,
in which the two discussed Yushchenko`s alleged poisoning.

I would like to focus on a political aspect of the situation
without going into details of the investigation launched by the
Commission. There are several political meanings here worth to be
outlined.

1. "To Compel Yushchenko to Peace" This appears to be the top
priority. Probably, the PR was establishing the Commission to threaten
to impeach President Yushchenko. And they could harldy even imagined to
find evidence of corruption and numerous violation of the legislation
by the "orange" authorities. Although the Presidential Secretariat
claims that arms trade remains in the custody of a prime minister,
"Ukrspezexport" company, which is ruled by a person appointed by
the President, remains the major arms exporter. So we see that
Viktor Yushchenko has long been involved in illegal activity,
and this fact may hardly help him in his election campaign. Under
such circumstances, the work of the Commission becomes a subject
to political bargaining. The key=2 0problem here is to form a
broad coalition, the PR had long been dreaming about. Initially,
the investigation was launched to nudge Yushchenko to form a new
coalition and place any PR MP and the head of the new Cabinet of
Ministers or the Verkhovna Rada spokesman. Otherwise the President
would have faced impeachment, with the laws adopted in September
making the whole procedure well-arranged. But the refusal of the
"Julia Tymoshenko Bloc" (JTB) faction to vote for the proposed draft
laws in the second reading weakened the Commission’s strategy.

Actually, the establishment of the Commission is really a strong
argument the PR could use to compel Yushchenko to negotiate the
creation of a broad coalition. But now it may be not only a strong
argument but a burden for those who initiated al this. It is obvious
that if the PR and "The Out Ukraine-People`s Self-Defene Bloc" (and
maybe Litvin`s Bloc) form the new coalition, the Commission will be
abolished, thus puzzling the electorate waiting for the results of
the investigation and evoking serious concerns in Moscow since the
August war conflict in the Caucasus is not just a "skirmish" but a
key issue of Russia`s foreign policy.

If the PR fails to continue the investigation and abolishes
Konovalyuk`s Commission, Moscow will see the move as an attempt
to hide the truth about Yushchenko`s role in supporting Georgia`s
armed aggres sion. The PR has should have enough political stamina
to finish the investigation and report on the results (as they do it
in a civilized world).

Since the end of the investigation will automatically mean serious
electoral losses, early elections or the JTB`s membership in the new
coalition (as the faction may use the results of the investigation
for their purposes) appear to be the most likely plots. However, early
elections may be used as a pretest to abolish the Commission: if there
is not parliament, there is nobody to continue the investigation. So,
everything depends on the PR`s official position. Judging by the
recent announcements made by the PR and the JTB, the two factions
opted for the second plot. In January, when the people of Ukraine
will be seriously affected by economic crisis, they won`t pay any
attention to the coalition members.

2. International reaction If the Commission headed by Konovalyuk
provides irrefutable evidence that Yushchenko`s Ukraine sold arms to
Georgia, the incumbent president may no longer hope for support from
the overseas during his election campaigns.

Recently the Western leaders have been seriously revising their view
on the five-day war, and Mikhail Saakashvili admitted that Tbilisi had
initiated the military campaign against its breakaway regions. Europe
is not just disappointed; it is annoyed at Saakashvili, who stirred
up tensions between EU and Russia, while Germany and France w ere
trying to improve cooperation with Moscow. Taking into consideration
that the current political regime in Ukraine originated in the West,
for the Yushchenko`s team it would be a catastrophe to be accused of
illegal arms trade with Georgia.

Europe is sensitive about those bits and pieces of the international
law left after George W. Bush`s 8 years of rule and his military
campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, prisons in Guantanamo, etc. And
since Ukraine’s support to Georgia in its aggression against South
Ossetia is becoming more apparent with days, it was one of the main
reasons for turning down Ukraine`s NATO bid.

3. US money stealing The Moscow-based "Izvestiya" newspaper reported
(citing the documents obtained by the Commission) what arms and
at what price Ukraine had been delivering to Georgia. So, Ukraine
delivered to Georgia two 5th class "Maxim" machine guns ($200 each);
two 1928 Thompson machine guns; two Shpagin`s pistol-machine guns;
two MG-34 German machine guns (WW II type); two Degtyarev hand-held
machine guns; 1140 Nagant pistols; 695 Mosin 1891 Nagants. All other
equipment (including modern guns) was also undervalued.

Yushchenko and Saakashvili seemed to thrive on the money of the US
tax payers and as ordinary store keepers used a traditional scheme of
setbacks, price mark-downs and speculation. The Americans can forgive
many things (for example, crimes against humanity) but not a20financial
betrayal. When the Commission provides enough evidence, Yushchenko
will face serious problems in relations with his US partners, who
had appointed him as their "puppet" in Ukraine.

Conclusions: 1. The preliminary results of the investigation indicate
that the investigation is very likely to be a success despite being
strongly opposed by the president.

2. If the Commission is abolished, the PR will face serious electoral
losses and will be criticized by the JTB and opposition political
factions) for inconsistent policies.

3. Russia will not welcome the abolishment of the Commission and will
doubt the PR`s aspirations to improve Russia-Ukraine ties.

4. The Yushchenko`s team will make every effort (including illegal
means) not to let the Commission continue their investigation.

5. If the investigation proves Ukraine`s authorities are guilty of
crimes, a new precedent may occur when despite all the evidence the
trial process would be impossible to begin.

6. After Yushchenko loses the 2009 election, he and his allies won`t
be necessarily tried in court. Viktor Yushchenko and his family will
probably leave Ukraine at any plausible excuse.

HOW MUCH CAN THE EU EXPAND?
Andrei Konurov

en.fondsk.ru
12.12.2008

It is not necessarily true that no news is good news. The same
day foreign ministers of NATO countries made the final decision
to postpone extending the NATO membership plan to Georgia and
Ukraine the European Commission unveiled the Eastern Partnership
Project. Currently the initiative proposed by Poland and Sweden in
March, 2008 is materializing at a fast pace. No doubt, the motivation
for the rush largely stems from the war in South Ossetia, and Europe
is quite open about this aspect of the matter.

The camp of Ukrainian President V. Yushchenko must be happy about
the developments. Some media already feature comments claiming that
the Eastern Partnership will replace the European Neighborhood Policy
allegedly regarded as a failure by the EU and that the new partnership
will be much broader in terms of its proportions and future. The
opinion, though, is likely to reflect the wishful thinking not
uncommon among the media brethren. The European Commission indicated
clearly that the Eastern Partnership is an integral part of the
same old European Neighborhood Policy and any steps to be made in
the framework of the former entirely fit within the confines of the
latter. Essentially, the same things are given new names, but even
this is not the core of the matter.

The thrust of the European Commission’s new document is that for
the post-Soviet Republics – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Belarus,
Ukraine, and Moldova – the Eastern Partnership is by no means going
to be a stepping stone to the EU membership. At the moment, the EU
has no unfilled vacancies, obviously.

Presenting the plan European Commission President José Manuel
Barroso said unequivocally that at present the EU is not in the
position to promise admission to anybody. Though the document
reads that the Eastern partners got drawn closer to the EU thanks
to a series of its successful expansions, the configuration which
emerged as the result of the expansions is loaded with problems. The
EU grew into a heterogeneous alliance of 27 countries having widely
varying socioeconomic development levels, and in its current shape
it clearly lacks cohesion. New expansions, if any, are going to be
highly selective. No expansions for their own sake will follow in
the foreseeable future. For example, though Turkey and Croatia are
official EU candidates, their cases remain undecided. Brussels does
not quite perceive the Balkan Slavs as absolute Europeans and harbors
strong reservations about Turkey.

–Boundary_(ID_bf+wnbgduT7RD7SXUy0WWg)–

RUSSIA TRYING TO DISSOCIATE ITSELF FROM KARABAKH CONFLICT

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 14:42 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Russia is de facto trying to dissociate itself from
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and doesn’t want to come to loggerheads
with anyone, a Russian politician said.

"Statements and declarations do not help but Russian presence
foils any attempt to resolve Caucasus conflicts by use of force,"
Viatcheslav Igrunov, Director of the International Institute for
Humanities and Political Studies, member of Russian Duma in 1993-2003,
told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

"Certainly, Russia would like to have the entire South Caucasus
as an outpost. But the fact is that Russia doesn’t have sufficient
influence on Azerbaijan, so the republic’s concerns about possible
shift in the Russian policy are quite understandable," he said.

At the same time, Mr. Igrunov noted that Russia’s positions in the
South Caucasus strengthened after the 5-day August war. "First,
Russia managed to stop NATO expansion eastwards. Second, the Moscow
declaration of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict was signed. Third, there
will be no armed conflict in the Caucasus in the near future. Besides,
the Caucasian mentality seems to have changed. So, I do not see
negative consequences of the August war," he said.

TURKISH SPEAKER CALLS ON PARLIAMENTS "NOT TO UNDERMINE TURKISH-ARMENIAN DIALOGUE"

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 15:13 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Turkish Parliament urged the parliaments of
other countries not to disrupt the process of rapprochement between
Turkey and Armenia with efforts to recognize the Armenian Genocide.

"Politicians and parliaments cannot judge about history," said
Parliament Speaker Koksal Toptan.

"We have always warned the parliaments [of other countries] that such
moves will not help Turkey-Armenia talks. All responsible parliaments
should now avoid hindering the ongoing process," he said. "There are
70,000 Armenian people working in Turkey and many Turkish products
are sold in Armenia. If we continue in this direction, there will be
no issues left for the Armenian diaspora to abuse."

"It’s gratifying that other parliaments share our view and we welcome
the decision of the French parliament to discuss these incidents,"
Toptan said.

The lower house of the French parliament adopted a bill criminalizing
denial of the Armenian Genocide in October 2006. However, the bill
was blocked by the Senate this year.

VIATCHESLAV IGRUNOV: TURKEY’S RECOGNITION OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE UNREALISTIC

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 15:19 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Distancing itself from the United States, Turkey’s
policy has become more practical, a Russian politician said.

"Moscow is extremely interested in normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations," Viatcheslav Igrunov, Director of the
International Institute for Humanities and Political Studies, member
of Russian Duma in 1993-2003, told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

This issue demands a sober approach, according to him. "Turkey’s
recognition of the Armenian Genocide is unrealistic, since it implies
return of territories of Western Armenia," he said.

"As to Iran, it’s the key regional power, whose security guarantees
the security of the entire region. Destabilization of Iran is pregnant
with grave consequences," Igrunov said.

EU LEADERS APPROVE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 15:36 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The leaders 27 EU member states have approved a
set of French proposals to strengthen the European Security and
Defense Policy (ESDP) and the Eastern Partnership project aimed
at establishment of closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova,
Ukraine and also Belarus, if it accepts the democracy improvement plan.

The package contains capabilities targets, a declaration on the
strengthening of international security and also a report by the
EU’s foreign-policy chief, Javier Solana, on the implementation of
the European Security Strategy of December 2003. Solana’s report also
outlines new threats in the fields of climate change, energy security
and cyber-crime.

Russia is marked as an "important partner in global issues" and as
Europe’s major energy supplier, RIA Novosti reports.

GEORGIA CAN RECEIVE CHURCHES IN LORI AND JAVAKHETI IN EXCHANGE FOR NORASHEN?

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 15:51 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Georgia pursues a specific ethno-religious policy
as regards the Armenian cultural heritage, an Armenian expert said.

"In response to demands to return the Armenian churches in Georgia to
the AAC, the Georgian side sets unreasonable conditions. The latest
statement by Giorgi Andriadze, the head of the Christian Democratic
Movement of Georgia, that the Armenian churches in Lori belong to the
Georgian Orthodox Church, looks as preparation for a bargain," Vahe
Sargsyan, expert at Mitq analytical center, told a news conference
today.

The Christian Democratic Movement of Georgia held a rally in front of
the Armenian on December 11 to demand ‘return’ of Georgian churches
in Armenia.

"A dozen of Georgian monasteries are situated in the territory of
Armenia, in Lore-Tashir. Unfortunately, they have been robbed, what
proves that they belong to the Georgian Orthodox Church," said Giorgi
Andriadze. "The Georgian Patriarchate did not deliberately raise
the issue to avoid tensions and maintain the status quo. However,
the Armenian side aggravates contradictions. So, we can nothing but
demand return of our churches."

"Rumors circulate that Norashen and a number of other churches in
the Georgian territory will be returned to the AAC. In exchange,
Georgia can receive some churches in Lori and Javakheti. Georgia lays
claims to churches in Lori because of Georgian murals on their walls,"
Sargsyan said.

He also informed that representatives of the GOC and ACC met
recently in the Georgian Patriarchate and requested the Georgian
Ministry of Culture to study the situation with Norashen and take
action to determine its status. "Participation of the Armenian side
in this process is shameful since it casts doubts to belonging of
our churches," he said, adding that the initiative was nevertheless
welcomed by the Armenian Prime Minister.

OSCE SECRETARY-GENERAL ARRIVING IN ARMENIA DEC. 14

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 16:14 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ OSCE Secretary-General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut
will be visiting Yerevan from December 14 to 17.

Mr. de Brichambaut is scheduled to meet with Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan, Catholicos of All Armenians, his Holiness Garegin II,
Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian,
Secretary of the National Security Council Artur Baghdassaryan and
members of parliamentary factions.

BAKU ANALYZING OUTCOMES OF HELSINKI TALKS ON KARABAKH

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 16:35 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Official Baku is analyzing the outcomes of the
Helsinki meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministers
on resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and discussions held
during the annual meeting of the OSCE ministerial council, Trend
Azeri news agency reports.

"We will announce our position on completion of the analysis," said
Novruz Mammadov, chief of international relations department of the
presidential office.

Mammadov said he has no information that Russia frustrated adoption
of a join resolution on Karabakh.

"I have read about it in media reports. But I can not say whether
it’s Russia’s official position. Everything will become clear after
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov comments on the matter. I don’t
think Russia will take a stance contradicting Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity," he added.

Russia needs resolution of the conflict in the framework of
Azerbaijan’s "territorial integrity", international law norms and
principles, according to him.

BAKO SAHAKYAN: KARABAKH PEOPLE COMMITTED TO FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY PRINCIPLES

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.12.2008 17:34 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On December 9, NKR President Bako Sahakyan delivered
a welcoming address to participants of the Human Rights Protection in
the Practice of Constitutional Justice conference, held in the NKR
National Assembly, the central information department of the office
of the NKR president told PanARMENIAN.Net

The President said:

"Dear participants of the conference,

I welcome holding in Stepanakert the authoritative conference in
connection with the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights and the Day of the NKR Constitution. It is very important
that the event is organized on a very high representative level and
is academic in its nature.

The people of Nagorno Karabakh have been always committed to the
principles of freedom and democracy as well as to creating such a
jural state where the dignity and freedom of the human being and the
citizen are of utmost value. The adoption of the NKR Constitution has
confirmed once again the irreversibility of this process, the will and
aspirations of our people to realize the right to live in free and just
society that secures equal development opportunities for everybody.

This conference is a good opportunity to value the achievements of
the NKR in protecting human and citizen rights and freedoms as well
as in forming democratic and civil society. The state as the most
important guarantor of human and citizen rights protection will keep
being consistent and will further activate its efforts in this field."