Month: August 2008

VIRTUAL CSTO: COLLECTIVE DEFENSE OF THE COMMONWEALTH HAS FIASCO

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 25, 2008 Monday
Russia

CSTO exercises are organized regularly but neither the troops of
the CSTO nor the organization itself play a significant role in
the post-Soviet space. A riot happened in Kyrgyzstan in 2005. CSTO
exercises were going on at that time but the troops did not help the
overthrown regime of Askar Akaev. CSTO member sates also manifested a
similar indifference towards the South Ossetian conflict and towards
Russia as the country that parried the aggression.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote that the majority of the CSTO member states
considered the nearest allies of Russia take its harsh actions for
parrying Georgian aggression in South Ossetia in a very cautious and
reserved manner. This conclusion became obvious after the summit of
defense ministers in Yerevan on August 21. All participants of the
summit except for the President of Armenia abstained from open support
of the military operations of Moscow against Georgia. Participants of
the summit discussed a lot of issues (20 issues on the official agenda)
including the plans of a coalition military buildup for the period
until 2010 and improvement of operational and combat training of the
coalition forces of the OSCE. However, bearing in mind the reaction
of the CSTO to the situation in South Ossetia, it is possible to say
that these issues are deprived of practical meaning. Quite recently,
leaders of the CSTO announced plans of formation of peacekeeping units
and their possible participation in operations in the "hot spots"
on the territory of the CIS. Now this is forgotten and the peace
enforcement operation carried out by Russian peacekeepers in South
Ossetia is simply hushed down or posed in the light not beneficial
for Russia among the allies of Russia in the CSTO.

The CSTO includes former Soviet republics (Russia, Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) that already have
different geopolitical interests due to their geographic, economic and
other position in the post-Soviet space. Probably that was why many
CSTO member states did not express their attitude to actions of Moscow
in South Ossetia. Uzbekistan keeps silent. Moscow supported it during
the mutiny in Andizhan in 2005. Tajikistan keeps silent. Russia and
its CSTO allies defended its independence and territorial integrity
at the beginning of the 1990s after breakup of the USSR.

On behalf of the permanent council of the CSTO, General Secretary of
the CSTO, Nicolai Bordyuzha, characterized the actions of Georgia
in a harsh way. However, this organization did not work out any
documents. Along with this, Bordyuzha refers to the fact that the
"evaluation of the entire situation not only in Georgia and South
Ossetia but in foreign policy in genera will be voiced in September at
summits of foreign ministers and chiefs of states of the CSTO." This
is too late, is it not?

This issue might be already inappropriate because the closest allies
of Russia in the CSTO – Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan – did not support
Russia. At a recent meeting with the President of Kazakhstan,
President of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiev, announced, "conflicts
similar to the conflict between Russia and Georgia should be resolved
purely on the basis of international law and only in a politically
diplomatic way." In turn, President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbaev,
emphasized that "Russian mass media characterized the situation as a
humanitarian catastrophe and the genocide of Ossetian people. The truth
will probably be found out later." Thus, Kyrgyzstan that is the chair
in the CSTO now and Kazakhstan, the best friend of Russia, actually
considered the use of military force against Georgia unjustified saying
that it was necessary to solve the problem at a table of negotiations.

Armenia should be interested in military support of Russia but the
stance of Yerevan was ambiguous too. During the days of fighting
in South Ossetia, the Foreign Ministry of Armenia expressed a hope
that the warring parties would take effort for quickly settling
disputes through dialogue. Yerevan did not condemn the aggression of
Saakashvili against South Ossetia. Only on August 22, President of
Armenia, Serzh Sarkisyan, said at a meeting with defense ministers
of the CSTO member states that tragic events in South Ossetia showed
that such confects should be resolved on the basis of free will of
the population. Otherwise we will inevitably witness ethnic separatism
and neglect of the international humanitarian law norms.

Incidentally, on the eve of the aggression of Georgia against South
Ossetia, servicemen from Armenia participated in NATO exercises
Immediate Response-2008 organized in Georgia scenario of which reminded
dynamic of the hostilities in South Ossetia. Having accomplished
the military exercises in the framework of the CSTO, Armenia starts
joint exercises with NATO countries Cooperative archer/Cooperative
lancer-2008 on its territory at the end of 2008. The scenario
of the exercises will be based on the "actions for reaction to
crises" outlined by NATO. Thus, it may happen someday that NATO will
become the main guarantor of stability in the Caucasus, says Ruben
Tovmasyan, chair of the central committee of the communist party of
Armenia. According to Tovmasyan, "strengthening NATO in Armenia is
strengthening of Turkey in reality." Tovmasyan believes that security
of the country may be guaranteed only in the framework of the CSTO.

Source: . The meeting of the council of defense ministers of the member
states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) took
place in Yerevan on August 21. The Russian delegation was headed by
Senior Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel General Alexander Kolmakov. The
event had to be meaningful because the fourth stage of joint command
staff exercises of the CSTO Rubezh-2008 took place on August 22 at
the training range named after Marshal Bagramyan 40 kilometers to
the west of Yerevan. The fourth stage, the so-called active phase of
the exercises, allowed checking the possibility of joint defensive
operation. The "indicating troops" included armored vehicles, tube
and rocket artillery, army, attack and fighter aviation, air defense
systems, combat engineers and signal units of the armed forces and
border guards of Armenia, the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri
and an airborne landing unit from Tajikistan. Other CSTO member states
were represented by operational groups of their defense ministries.

Armenian Technology Group, Inc.
1300 E. Shaw Ave Suite 131
P.O. Box 5969
Fresno, CA 93755
Tel: 559-224-1000
Fax: 559-224-1002
Website:

PRESS RELEASE
August 25, 2008
Contact: Varoujan Der Simonian
Tel: 559-224-1000

The State of California Designates
2008 as the William Saroyan Year

2008 has been designated as `William Saroyan Year.’ State Senator
Dave Cogdill (R-Modesto) introduced the Senate Resolution to honor
Mr. Saroyan and the many cultural contributions Armenian Americans
have made to California over the last 100 years. The resolution was
passed unanimously by both chambers of the legislature.

`We thank Senator Cogdill for taking the initiative to honor Saroyan
who put the Central Valley and specially Fresno on the literary map of
the world,’ said Varoujan Der Simonian of the Armenian Technology
Group. `Saroyan once said that he didn’t make Fresno famous, raisins
did. The reality is that wherever you travel in the world, be that in
Europe, Russia, Japan or the Far East, and when people find out that
you are from Fresno, they will immediately say, `Ah, Saroyan! Isn’t
that where William Saroyan was from?’

`It is wonderful to see over forty San Joaquin Valley organizations
come together to honor Mr. Saroyan’s many contributions to the Central
Valley. His observations about our community live on in his Pulitzer
Prize winning books and shed light on the 125 years of cultural
contributions by Armenian Americans to the state,’ said Senator Dave
Cogdill. `Saroyan was a great American and I am proud to have
sponsored the resolution in his honor.’

A photo exhibition honoring Saroyan and the cultural contributions to
California by Armenian Americans is now on display through September
24, at the State Capitol Museum in Sacramento.

On August 28th, there will be a special Centennial Celebration of
William Saroyan’s birthday at the Fresno Convention Center’s William
Saroyan Theatre. Sponsored by the Armenian Museum, the City of
Fresno, The Fresno Bee and the Saroyan Centennial Committee, the event
will feature the National Chamber Orchestra of Armenia, under the
Artistic Director and Conductor, Maestro Aram Gharabekian, world
renowned Matzo Soprano Edna Garabedian, and the Fresno Choral Artists.
There will be pre-concert festivities, followed by after concert
dessert, birthday cake and champagne.

A complete text of the resolution is followed.

Varoujan Der Simonian, Executive Director
Armenian Technology Group, Inc.
1300 East Shaw Ave., Suite 149
P.O.Box 5969
Fresno CA 93755-5969 US
1.559.224.1000 Fax 1.559.224.1002
[email protected]

ACTIVE PHASE OF RUBEZH-2008 EXERCISES OF CSTO WAS ACCOMPLISHED IN ARMENIA

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 25, 2008 Monday
Russia

The final fourth stage of joint command staff exercises Rubezh-2008
of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was accomplished
at the training range named after Marshal Bagramyan in Armenia. About
2,500 servicemen of the armed forces of Armenia and Russia, armored
vehicles, artillery, air defense systems and aviation including
MiG-29 fighters, Su-25 attack airplanes and Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters
participated in the exercises with firing practice. The scenario of
the exercises included actions for defeating subversive groups of the
enemy, artillery and aviation support of troops, liquidation of armored
vehicles of the enemy, counterattack and pursuing of the retreating
enemy. The exercises were crowned with a tactical landing operation.

FORECAST: POLITICAL SCIENTIST DELYAGIN: GEORGIA ACCOMPLISHED ITS ENDS; POST-WAR ANALYSIS: THINGS LOOK DEFINITELY BLEAK FOR RUSSIA
by Mikhail Delyagin

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 25, 2008 Monday
Russia

The operation was apparently charted by American analysts aiming to
draw Russia into the conflict, compromise it as an aggressor, and have
the international community take over in the matter of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. The international community in its turn would have made
an emphasis on territorial integrity of Georgia and been thoroughly
anti-Russian because the West needed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Russia in its turn will be threatened with international sanctions. It
is already drawn into conflicts with Ukraine (where it is so bad
that the Russian naval base might be left without electric power)
and with the West, the latter as united as it was in the episode with
Milosevic not long ago.

Georgia and Ukraine will be granted Membership Action Plan this
December. Moreover, the Alliance will protect them as though its
own members. Ukraine will become a full NATO member in 2011-2012,
Georgia in 2009-2010.

South Stream is history, Nord Stream suspended. Advanced European
countries have enough gas to last them 3-4 month, sufficient for
them to suspend gas import from Russia and foment a technological
and financial breakdown of the latter.

Russia’s position will be further weakened by new provocations in Gori:
servicemen of the Georgian army wearing Russian battle fatigues will
loot the township in front of TV cameras. Russia will send its army
back to restore order but the West will see it as another aggression
against Georgia following a provocation. Gori residents had better
be ready for pogroms.

Unbelievably inefficient as it is, Russian bureaucracy will be
compelled to abandon South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This act will only
facilitate the process of driving Russian-speakers out of the Caucasus
and disappearance of Moscow’s clout with the region.

Absence of the attempts to bomb the Rok Tunnel out of existence
reveals Saakashvili’s true intents. The Georgians pulled it off
and accomplished their ends including physical extermination of
the population of Tskhinvali where the death toll varies between
1,500 and 1,690. It cost the Georgians of course (almost 400 KIAs,
and 1,000 to 1,500 wounded), but it was worth it all the same.

It seems that Saakashvili got guarantees of two sorts. Representatives
of the US Administration promised him political and information
support (and kept the promise particularly in the first hours and
days when Georgia as the aggressor was particularly vulnerable). US
medium-level officials close to neo-Conservatives on the other hand
gave him guarantees of military aid. These latter had no rights to
promise anything like that as Saakashvili eventually discovered to
his dismay (hence his hysterics and use of the tie for munchies).

All the same, Saakashvili became a national hero at home and secured
unconditional support in the West. He will be given up to $2.5 billion
for revival of the national economy before long. The Georgian army
will be modernized and, 2-3 years later, become the strongest in the
region – even stronger than the Russian army. (It will happen more
or less by the moment Russia has been bullied into abandonment of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia.)

And yes, count on an attempt by the Azerbaijani regular army to settle
the score with the Armenians and conquer Nagorno-Karabakh this autumn.

AZERBAIJAN REITERATES SUPPORT FOR GEORGIA’S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY

Turan news agency
Aug 25 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has reiterated its support for Georgia’s territorial
integrity and said that the conflict with this country’s separatist
regions should be resolved on the basis of international law.

"The conflicts in the South Caucasus, including the Karabakh conflict,
should be resolved in keeping with the norms of international law,
and within the framework of the territorial integrity [of states],"
the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Xazar Ibrahim, told reporters on 25
August, the Turan news agency said.

Asked if Azerbaijan was going to seek foreign military aid following
the Russian invasion of Georgia, Ibrahim said that this was not on
the government’s agenda. He added that every state should rely on
its own military might, Turan reported.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman was also quoted as saying that
Azerbaijan was going to hold security consultations with the USA
later this year.

BBCM Note: Such consultations are routine. They are held twice a year.

AZERI EXPERTS COMMENT ON RUSSIA’S PLANS TO RECOGNIZE ABKHAZIA, S OSSETIA

Turan news agency
Aug 25 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku, 25 August: The decision to recognize the independence of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which the Federation Council [upper house
of Russian parliament] has adopted and the State Duma [lower house
of Russian parliament] is going to consider, is not resolute and
is a recommendation, the head of the public forum For Azerbaijan,
Eldar Namazov, has told Turan commenting on today’s decision of the
Federation Council.

The Russian Federation’s ruling elite is "resolute" and is most likely
to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Namazov said. However, this
step will affect the whole region as well as the relationship between
the West and Russia. This may speed up the resolution of long-standing
problems in the region and change the whole geopolitical configuration
in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions, the political analyst said.

Asked about the result of the West-Russia standoff, Namazov said that
the West had already precisely defined its positions. In the future,
much will depend on Moscow’s steps, however, it will be a "lengthy"
process. Asked whether Armenia would recognize Nagornyy Karabakh,
Namazov said that "this could be a thoughtless step". He believes
that Armenian officials can make statements to that end but specific
decisions will hardly be taken.

In the meantime, the former Azerbaijani envoy in Moscow, Hikmat
Hacizada, described the developments as "very alarming". Unfortunately,
hysteria is continuing in Russian society. Such steps may lead to a
full confrontation between the West and Russia, Hacizada said. At the
same time, he thinks that Russia will delay the recognition of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, giving Georgia time to reject NATO membership. "If
Tbilisi goes along the path of NATO integration to the end, then Moscow
will finally recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Hacizada said.

THREATENING TO ‘SPOIL’: JAILED ARMENIAN EDITOR SAYS HIS LIFE IS IN DANGER

Aravot
Aug 22 2008
Armenia

The editor-in-chief of the Zhamanak Yerevan newspaper, Arman
Babajanyan, issued a statement on 11 August, saying that under
instructions from the authorities, the Department of Detentions has
decided to silence him.

"Moreover, the information that I have received from several sources
indicate that my security is under threat in prison." To substantiate
this decision, he pointed to the decision to transfer him from the
convicts’ hospital to Nubarashen prison [in Yerevan].

"According to the information I have received, I have serious
suspicions that the decision to transfer me to Nubarashen prison is
aimed at physically destroying or harming me in a closed prison cell,"
Babajanyan said, withholding the names of the officials who have been
so instructed and have agreed to carry out this task.

However, Aravot has found out that this statement was made after a
video tape showing how criminals "spoil" convicts by forced sexual
acts was given to Babajanyan. Babajanyan was warned that the same
could happen to him. This video will be posted on youtube soon.

AZERBAIJAN: BETWEEN THE KREMLIN AND THE WHITE HOUSE OR HOW CAN WE LIVE IN A TWO-POLAR WORLD?

Day.Az
Aug 19 2008
Azerbaijan

The world has changed after 8 August 2008

No matter what some Russian political analysts say, it has again
become two-polar. The Kremlin, with its military aggression against
Georgia, has made the entire world understand that the process of
transformation of the USSR into a new state having the same big claims
for supremacy in the world has finished. From now on, the entire world
should proceed from the fact that Russia is a real counterbalance to
the USA in its struggle for supremacy in the world. It is especially
important for such small countries as Azerbaijan to understand it
because the fight between the USA and Russia for influence in the
South Caucasus is now entering into a new heated phase of development.

Washington’s bloodless victory

Let us start from what we state: only one country the USA has won
in Russia’s military aggression against Georgia. Judge yourselves:
the USA did not take part in the military operations in the area of
the Russian-Georgian conflict. Consequently, there could not be any
casualties on its side. In return, both Georgian and Russian armies
sustained losses with injuries and deaths. I am not mentioning the
fact that thousands of Georgians and Ossetians have become refugees
as a result of this transient war.

Now let us speak about the diplomatic consequences of this war. For
the time being Georgia has only obtained a chance to look like a
small country which needs protection from Russian aggression in the
eyes of the world community. Plus, it obtained a chance to make its
admission to NATO much more realistic.

But has this country managed to return South Ossetia and Abkhazia
under its jurisdiction? No. Has it managed to protect its towns,
as well as its population, in safety? No. Is there a risk that the
people of Georgia will find these casualties excessive? Of course,
especially if the USA does not take real action to restore Georgia’s
territorial integrity, that is, Tbilisi’s control over South Ossetia
and Abkhazia. Such action will not take place. The USA does not have
such plans. They [in the USA] are more accustomed to moving towards
their targets at the expense of others’ blood. In this particular case
those targets have already been achieved. Now Russia has real chances
to confront international condemnations of its action, becoming an
outlaw country. It is highly likely that the process of condemning
Russia will go on. Now Mr Rogozin, who tries to put a brave face on
a sorry business, admits that the relations between NATO and Russia
will change. Now the anti-missile defence system is being installed
in Poland.

Who has lost from it? Of course, Russia. Who has won? Of course, the
USA. The White House has managed to put Russia into a very unpleasant
situation without a single shoot made and a single soldier lost. Can
we say that the White House was not ready for the fact that Washington
was not ready for Russia’s using military force against Georgia? No,
of course. It is ridiculous to say that the super power, which managed
to enact the break-up of the USSR, did not have information about such
an issue of near future. It was clear to everyone that the Kremlin was
deprived of control over a big political and economic bloc following
the end of the cold war and the military alliance NATO started to
move towards its borders. It seemed that Russia would try to regain
its sharply fallen status at the very first opportunity.

The USA understood very well that [Georgian President] Mikheil
Saakashvili’s attempt to resolve the problem with separatists in South
Ossetia in a military way may lead to military aggression from Russia,
which supports separatists in all the areas of the former USSR. This
is not only because the Kremlin has never concealed its rejection of
Saakashvili’s Georgia and the Kremlin had a formal excuse under the
cover of protection of "Russian citizens" to get involved in this
conflict, but also because the US electronic intelligence eavesdrops
on the entire modern system of satellite communication. Almost all the
private and state information communicated by phone, fax or via e-mail
is intercepted. In particular, the tasks of the US Agency for National
Security, a gigantic centre watching the entire world, employing about
100,000 people and having a budget of 16 billion dollars, also include
eavesdropping on phone conversations, faxes, e-mails and satellite
signals that have the least of interest for the USA. It is at least
inappropriate to say under these circumstances that Washington was
not ready for Russia’s military aggression against Georgia.

In these conditions a hypothesis is emerging that Georgia has simply
been set up by the USA in its geopolitical war with Russia.

Another big question for me personally is that who has committed the
biggest crime: Russia, which openly and impudently demonstrates its
aggressive face of a super power or the USA, which acted delicately and
stealthily to achieve its targets through the blood of small Georgia?

What are we for the USA and Russia?

I am convinced that we have witnessed only the first stage of
confrontation between Russia, which has finally become strong, and
the USA, for influence in the South Caucasus region. It logically
comes from this fact that the confrontation between the co-chairs of
the OSCE Minsk Group will be strongly aggravated. Azerbaijan needs
to take it into account and try to make sure that either Russia or
the USA is out as the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. This is
because the differences between Washington and Moscow in the views
on the future of the South Caucasus, as well as on the settlement
of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
may lead to very unpleasant consequences for us.

Despite the big differences in the views on the future of the entire
South Caucasus region between Moscow and Washington, we can not but
admit that the attitude of both Russia and the USA to Azerbaijan is
purely that of a consumer. For example, a private idea prevails in
Russia that Azerbaijan is only a province of Russia, which broke
off due to the weakness of the Russian state, while the USA views
Azerbaijan as another oil filling station, which needs to be under
its control in order not to move towards Russia.

It seems that the fight for our oil may be strongly aggravated and
assume the most unexpected proportions. This fight is not just for our
oil. It should be noted that the USA does not control only one of the
five countries which have the biggest oil reserves in the world Iran. A
couple of years ago such countries were only two, but they have already
"liberated" Iraq. It leads to an idea that Washington will definitely
try to bring Tehran under its control. It is natural that under the
new conditions of a two-polar world, when Russia has demonstrated to
the entire world its status of a reviving super state, Washington’s
"Iran plans" may encounter tough rejection by the Kremlin. Naturally,
Azerbaijani will feel all the "beauty" of this confrontation.

What shall Azerbaijan do under these circumstances? It should try to
benefit from the confrontation of super powers in our region. But we
need to understand that both the USA and Russia are the countries
which do not care about international law and accept only one law
that of force. So, we should become the strongest state in the
South Caucasus in all the meanings of this word economically,
democratically, diplomatically and intellectually. We need to
secure solid and written guarantees of support from one of the two
currently existing superpowers, on the issue of their military and
political assistance in the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity. As the developments in Georgia show, we must not believe
simple promises of assistance as much as the statements of Moscow
and Washington that they want to see Azerbaijan as an independent
and developed nation. For them we are just a small country rich
in oil, which has an unresolved territorial conflict. For them we
are just another stage of confrontation for supremacy in the region
and in the world. If this is the case, we will proceed from our own
pragmatic interests, understanding that we will not be able to avoid
confrontation between the two superpowers in a new two-polar world.

MODEST KOLEROV: A NEW GREATER CAUCASUS: MUTUAL CONTAINMENT WITHOUT OUTSIDERS. WHAT THERE ARE NOT ALREADY AND CAN BE THERE

Regnum news agency
Aug 21 2008
Russia

The USA has bluntly advised Syria not even express its opinion on a war
in South Ossetia and Georgia’s responsibilities for its outcome and
be busy with own "regional" problems instead. This is a very precise
and opportune thought: for Syria one of the key regional problems is
the alliance between Turkey and Israel. Exactly that Turkey, whose
military, economic, political, special Ajarian and special Abkhaz
interests, is closely connected with Georgia and with its prospects.

Exactly that Israel, which until last days armed Georgia the
aggressor, who quite recently from the lips of own ambassador to
Georgia, maintained that the genocide was only the Holocaust but not
genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Turkey, who were saved namely
on the territory of the modern Syria and Lebanon controlled by it.

In a nutshell, here we have our own and very complicated, historical
"regional" drama and it is not up to a representative of the other
side of the Moon, unable to find Syria and Caucasus with no reference
to the globe, to come up with methodological orders. However, the USA
noticed the main point correctly: a new Caucasus, in South Ossetia
and Georgia which became a victim of the failed American game in
the "controlled conflict", already cannot allow itself to remain a
field for provocation of strangers and even of those very interested
forces. They managed this in the Balkans but not in the Caucasus.

The issue in question is about the need for a new security system in
the Caucasus, which – irrespective of diplomatic victories and losses,
the number of new wars and genocide for the sake of the rudimentary
survival of the region as a complicated ethno-confessional and
political entity demands a categorical exclusion of "global" players
connected with no vital and physical fate of the Caucasus. [Passage
omitted: criticizing global players]

To wit, those "global" incompetent players urge prime
minister-candidate of Ukraine, Tymoshenko, to sign with her political
name drawn up from a "long telegramme" by [George F.] Kennan
[entitled Containment: 40 years later: then and now] and hardly
Hitlerite editorial of American article "Containment of Russia"
where for the sake of the same "containment"

No doubt, in the Caucasus and without such players the need for the
rational containment of the states of the region, which can only
be mutual and fully reciprocal responsibility for the Caucasus. Any
containment from outside with already its contrast is manipulation.

Completing the foreword to the following thesis, I want to note that
they are developing and expanding an approach to a new security system
in the Caucasus, systematically stated by the editor-in-chief of
Regnum news agency, Vigen Akopyan, in the article "Mortal enemies of
Georgia": consisting of three leaders (Russia, Turkey and Iran). So
as a result of the war in South Ossetia: what do already not exist
politically in the Caucasus and around it? What can be politically
new? To what questions are there not obvious answers there?

What do not exist politically and will not be there?

1. The Commonwealth of Independent States

2. GUAM [the alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova]

3. "The arc of the Baltic-Black Sea" from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea

4. The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization and similar ones.

5. Georgia incorporating Abkhazia and South Ossetia

6. The Azerbaijani blitzkrieg in Nagornyy Karabakh

7. Azerbaijan incorporating Armenian Nagornyy Karabakh

8. The transit communications corridors from the Caspian to Black
and Mediterranean Seas via the territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia

9. The alternative roles of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan
in supplies of energy resources to the West

10. The role of Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and Moldova in problems
of Caucasus.

11. Russian separatism in Crimea

12. A project of uniting Adygeya and the Krasnodar Territory of Russia

What can be politically new?

1. The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia

2. The recognition of Nagornyy Karabakh by Armenia

3. The recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus by
Azerbaijan

4. Georgia’s federalization without South Ossetia and Abkhazia with
granting autonomous status to minimum Kvemo Kartli (Borcali) except
for Ajaria

5. Associated relations between South Ossetia with Russia (North
Ossetia)

6. A system of the regional security set by Russia, Turkey and Iran

7. A system of the regional security of the Caspian littoral states

8. A system of the regional security between Russia, Turkey, Iran,
and Armenia balanced with NATO members: Azerbaijan and Georgia
(and Armenia?)

9. A system of the regional security between Russia, Turkey and Iran,
inclusive Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

10. A system of the regional security amongst Russia, Turkey, Iran,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, inclusive Abkhazia and South Ossetia
(and Nagornyy Karabakh?)

11. A union between Armenia and Russia similar to the Union of Belarus
and Russia

12. The recognition of the Iraqi Kurdistan by the USA.

13. The federalization of Ukraine

14. A confederation between Moldova and the Dniester.

To what are there not answers?

1. Will a single front of Turkey and Azerbaijan with regard to Georgia
be restored?

2. To what extent will be stable and promising an alliance between
Turkey and Iran especially against Kurdistan?

3. When will Georgia and Azerbaijan join NATO?

4. Will Armenia join NATO?

5. When will a "peace for land" intermediate plan for the Karabakh
regulation be realized?

6. Will a new security system guarantee a corridor from Azerbaijan to
the Naxcivan autonomy on the analogy of the Lacin corridor to Karabakh
[from Armenia], or will Turkey remain a protector of Naxcivan?

7. When will the Crimean-Tatar separatism in Crimea be realized?

8. Will Turkey become second after Russia a security guarantor of an
independent Abkhazia?

9. What new targets will determine for themselves radical Islamic
and other sabotage underground in Russia’s North Caucasus as well as
in Abkhazia?

FORMER MINISTER URGES ARMENIA TO RECOGNIZE KARABAKH’S INDEPENDENCE

ArmInfo News Agency (in Russian)
Aug 25 2008
Armenia

Yerevan, 25 August: The time has come to recognize the independence
of the [Azerbaijani breakaway] Nagornyy Karabakh republic (NKR)
by Armenia, the former foreign minister of the NKR, Arman Melikyan,
has told our correspondent.

"I think that the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia by Russia can be just another stroke on the long path
to the independence that Nagornyy Karabakh took long ago," he said
while commenting on a statement made by the Russian Federation Council
[upper house of parliament] today.

Melikyan believes that Armenia must unilaterally recognize the
sovereignty of Nagornyy Karabakh, since the republic is considerably
ahead of its neighbours in the region in terms of development of
democracy. "I think Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev will also put
his signature under the statement by the senators of the Federation
Council, because there are all preconditions for this, the main of
which is the world order that is changing by the hour in conditions
of equal confrontation between the USA and Russia," Melikyan said.