OSSETIA SETS UP ITS PRECEDENT
RIA Novosti
11:37 | 12/ 08/ 2008
MOSCOW. (Alexei Malashenko for RIA Novosti) – The recent developments
in South Ossetia provoke mixed feelings, first, compassion. At the
same time when you regularly watch on television scenes that are
reminiscent of Chechnya it causes irritation and at times anger. But
that is the emotional side. It is far more important to understand
rationally what has happened.
In fact, it is hard to say who was the first to pull the trigger. I
have a hunch that emotions have played their sinister role, at any
rate, on Saakashvili’s part. At a certain point he felt that he could
make it, that he was strong enough. I think he acted without counseling
with his "senior partners." Up until yesterday their reaction was
unclear. It looks as if the United States has been caught unawares.
The same is true of Russia, hence the delay with the eventual tough
reaction. Russia could not believe that Saakashvili could risk
sending his tanks and Grad rockets…. That sense of bewilderment
passed. A decision was made and, as far as I can judge from the public
reaction, the overwhelming majority has supported the government’s
tough response.
But as events unfold other questions crop up: is there an alternative
opinion or, as in former times, one has to glean it from foreign
broadcasts?
As soon as it occurs to you, you feel that it is not a black-and-white
situation. The Western media give a strange coverage of this war:
Russia alone is to blame for everything. Western officials, as usual,
apply double standards. The present situation in Southern Caucasus
inevitably brings associations with Kosovo and Yugoslavia.
It turns out that what some can get away with others cannot. So,
I would not say that the European and American positions are
adequate. I have a feeling that in addition to double standards,
they also have a hidden agenda. First, while vilifying Russia they
are not going to take strong measures against it. Second, the need
for negotiations is still being stressed. Third, German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s statement on the events in South
Ossetia suggests that it is still unclear who is to blame. If his
real position was unequivocally anti-Russian, he, or anyone else,
would not have said that.
Besides, intelligence is at work everywhere and there are independent
experts in Europe and America. I assure you that their assessment of
Saakashvili is anything but positive. I think Bush himself learned
about it with a feeling of dismay. But in this situation every leader
has a certain role to play from which he cannot depart because it is
built into his global policy. In this case, formally and officially,
they have to criticize Russia. They have a pretext for this. Russia
is indeed fighting outside its own territory. And I should say that
Russia has gone a bit too far. Let us hope that it too has something
to do with emotions. However, in my opinion, it is time to hold
negotiations. It is time to call a halt to hostilities, otherwise
the West may toughen its position in earnest.
A few words about the media are in order. Our television provides
very convincing coverage: not cynical, professional and very precise
and competent even in terms of propaganda. If only our reports could
reach the Western audience. The images that people in Georgia and the
Western public get are far less compelling than ours. But will we be
able to bring our point of view home to the world community? I think
it is important today.
Most importantly, it is time to put an end to the fighting.
All wars, as we know, end in peace sooner or later. The question is
who will get what dividends from the war. At present one can only
speculate on that score. I don’t think what happened has soured the
relations between the West and Russia all that much, especially if
our side is ready for talks.
My guess is that NATO is distancing itself from Georgia. What
use is Georgia to the alliance if the price for it will be so
high? In that sense Saakashvili has lost. But a solution to the
Georgia-Ossetia-Abkhaz-Russian conundrum is only delayed. Especially
if one bears in mind that only last spring there were active talks
about mediators and possible softening of positions. The hopes were
well justified. Now the negotiation process has been thrown back.
I think that after this war there can be no serious talk about the
CIS. No matter what pictures Russian television carries and how real
the nightmare in and around Tskhinvali may be, Russia will be looked
on with suspicion not only in Ukraine but everywhere in the CIS. The
post-Soviet era is over. I think what happened underlined it.
Another point, that so far can be mentioned only parenthetically, is
that the future of the 2014 Olympics is under a big question mark. Let
us hope that the situation will change for the better by that time.
It is a pity that a precedent is being set up. In the midst of
negotiations it suddenly turns out that one of the conflicting parties
may take a risk, whether due to stupidity or some clandestine plan. And
you cannot help looking at the neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan:
the precedent is there….
As a result, one gets a feeling that all talks are useless.
Alexei Malashenko is a member of the scientific council at the Carnegie
Moscow Center.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.