Lukashenka started first

Looking at Armenia’s recent actions and statements, one might get the impression that Yerevan has done everything possible to anger Alyaksandr Lukashenka: the Armenian parliament speaker’s statement that their country will not be governed like a Russian governorate, unlike Belarus; the invitation to Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Yerevan summit alongside European leaders; and the invitation to Belarusian democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

However, according to Belsat studio guest Vital Tsyhankou, the conflict between Yerevan and Minsk began much earlier: with Lukashenka’s open support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, which felt like betrayal to Armenia as an CSTO ally.

Tsyhankou emphasized that the first step toward deteriorating relations was taken by Alyaksandr Lukashenka himself. In 2023 — a decisive year for Armenia, when Azerbaijan established control over Nagorno-Karabakh — official Minsk not only failed to support its formal ally within integration structures but sided with Baku instead.

“[Lukashenka] did nothing to support Armenia, which is supposedly part of the same pro-Russian defense and integration structures and is formally an ally of Belarus and Russia… But Lukashenka supported Azerbaijan instead. That’s where it all started. Pashinyan then said he would not visit Belarus as long as Lukashenka remains,” Tsyhankou noted.

He observed that after this, a mutual exchange of rhetorical blows began, with Lukashenka in a weaker position, able only to respond through official Foreign Ministry statements or personal reproaches at CIS summits.

“An exchange of blows followed. We see that Armenia now has more capacity for its blows, since Lukashenka, apart from the Foreign Ministry’s barking back, can’t actually respond with anything,” the political commentator said.

“Did Lukashenka’s telegrams help you?”

At the same time, Tsyhankou noted that the exchange of mutual attacks began only recently, but one should recall that in 2020, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was among the first to congratulate Lukashenka on his so-called election victory.

“That is, Armenia’s geopolitical bet was on Belarus as an ally of Russia, and he [Pashinyan] could not afford any liberties toward Lukashenka, even though, as a democratically elected leader, he certainly understood that Lukashenka had stolen the election. And now, of course, paraphrasing a Ukrainian classic, one might ask: ‘Well, did your telegrams to Lukashenka help you?'”

The issues with the Kremlin come first

According to Tsyhankou, Armenia’s main problem remains its relations with Russia, not with Belarus.

The conflict with Lukashenka is merely a reflection of a deeper process — Armenia’s distancing from Russia. However, the expert notes, a complete break is not possible in the near future. A challenging geopolitical position (neighbors include Turkey and Azerbaijan) and the presence of Russian military bases on its territory force Yerevan to act cautiously, even as it actively seeks support from the West.

“Belarus is simply not the main issue here. The main issue is Yerevan’s relations with Moscow… The fact that Armenia remains in these structures after all these years is primarily because of this specific geopolitical situation — there’s no one else to rely on in the neighborhood: Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia… So Armenia, as long as Putin remains, will distance itself from Russia, but for now, it is not daring to even raise the issue of the Russian bases,” Tsyhankou observed.

Dictator solidarity as an obstacle

Asked whether other Moscow allies could follow Armenia’s path of distancing from the Kremlin and eventually become safe havens for Belarusian democratic forces, Tsyhankou expressed skepticism.

Beyond the ideological commonality of authoritarian regimes, a key factor remains economics: millions of labor migrants from these countries work in Russia, and their potential deportation would cause economic collapse back home.

“Apart from ties with Moscow, there is also a certain ideological dictator solidarity. Most of these countries are still undemocratic… Uzbekistan and Tajikistan send hundreds of thousands or even millions of their people to work in Russia. They are dependent in this sense and cannot afford to treat Russia negatively. If all their guest workers were sent back, it would be a huge blow to their economies, as a significant part of Tajikistan, for example, lives on that money,” Tsyhankou noted.

The political observer observed that the CIS is indeed slowly weakening and falling apart, but its collapse — as predicted after 2022, when Russia’s war against Ukraine began — has not yet happened.

It is worth recalling that on May 2, Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan stated that his country would not be “run like Belarus.” In response, on May 5, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry summoned Armenia’s chargé d’affaires, Artur Sargsyan, to whom a “decisive protest” was delivered, along with a note regarding “recent unfriendly actions by the Armenian side.”

Against this backdrop, on May 4-5, Yerevan hosted the European Political Community Summit and the first Armenia-EU Summit. Guests at the summit included the head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya; the presidents of Moldova, France, and Ukraine; the prime ministers of the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, and Poland; and the heads of the European Commission, the European Council, and NATO.

Valer Ruselik, Vital Babin, Raman Shavel / jangra belsat.eu

The European Political Community Summit and the first Armenia-EU Summit are taking place in Yerevan on May 4-5. Guests at the summit include Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, leader of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus; the presidents of Moldova, France, and Ukraine; the prime ministers of the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, and Poland; and the heads of the European Commission, the European Council, and NATO.

Political commentator Vital Tsyhankou noted in a commentary for Belsat that there was intrigue over whether Tsikhanovskaya would fly to Yerevan. Armenia is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and is at least formally still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), although its membership is frozen. Last year, the National Assembly of Armenia supported the initiative to begin Armenia’s accession to the European Union. And now Tsikhanouskaya has been invited.

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“Yerevan is demonstrating that it is now fully in line with general European rules on the issue of Belarus: it recognizes Tsikhanouskaya as the leader of a democratic Belarus and does not recognize Lukashenka’s legitimacy,” Tsyhankou said.

“Secondly, this is undoubtedly a reflection of the relationship between official Yerevan and official Minsk, which, as we know, deteriorated dramatically after the fall of 2023, when Azerbaijan finally took control of Karabakh. At that time, official Minsk, despite its supposed alliance with Iran, which supports Armenia, effectively supported Azerbaijan. In response, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took offense at the official Minsk stance. There were exchanges of remarks and offensive statements. Pashinyan declared that he would never again visit Belarus as long as Alyaksandr Lukashenka remained in power. One of the consequences of this was the invitation to Tsikhanouskaya to Yerevan.”

Tsikhanouskaya is working to make Armenia a completely safe country for Belarusians

Belarusians in Armenia were considered at risk of deportation due to political persecution. Tsikhanovskaya’s office website labeled Armenia as a dangerous country for Belarusians. In a commentary on the program “Vot Tak,” Sviatlana Tsikhanovskaya emphasized that she had arrived at the official invitation of the Armenian government:

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“What should I be afraid of?” Tsikhanouskaya asked. “You know, this perception that we should be afraid of everyone around us is so paralyzing. Of course, if you understand that your goal is to represent Belarus at the world summit, then of course, I flew here without any regard for what anyone might think.”

The summit, she emphasizes, is important for Europe and for understanding the region. She herself is pleased to be at such a summit, where representatives of fifty countries gathered in one building:

“This is a good opportunity to speak out about Belarus. To reiterate: Belarus is not Russia, Lukashenka is not Belarus, and Belarusians deserve a European future. That Ukraine must win this war, and everyone must make every effort to ensure Ukraine emerges victorious, as this will impact not only Ukraine itself but also the fates of Belarus, Moldova, and Armenia.”

Tsikhanouskaya’s Chief Advisor, Franak Viachorka, explained to Vot Tak that the visit was not announced in advance for security reasons. He said it was too early to discuss all the details, but the main thing was that Tsikhanouskaya was in Yerevan.

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“We discuss a wide range of topics that are important to Belarusians,” Viachorka says. “We discuss the security of Belarusians and the Belarusian diaspora here, issues of the European space, issues of Belarusian independence, and the issue of political prisoners. All of this is raised here. I think we have good relations with Armenia. And we would like to establish more practical cooperation.”

Regarding the safety of Belarusians in Armenia, Viachorka comments:

“Most countries around the world have become dangerous for Belarusians now, because the regime is using Interpol and its interstate search mechanisms to persecute its opponents. Therefore, we certainly advise you to exercise extreme caution when traveling.”

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“There have been no cases of extradition for political reasons in Armenia so far. Armenia responds to our requests, and Armenia consults with us. And we would like Armenia to become a completely safe country for Belarusians.”

“Many Belarusians are here, living here. Armenia also provides political protection and asylum to Belarusians who arrived after 2020. But the regime uses interstate search tools; we know this, and they send extradition requests. Therefore, we need to be careful. And, of course, if you come to Armenia as a tourist, you need to check that you are not wanted and that your identity is not in Armenian databases. There have been recent cases, such as one in which a person was detained and later released. But, unfortunately, certain threats still exist. This threat of temporary detention remains, but we are working on it,” said Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor.

Today’s Armenia advocates for human rights and democracy and participates in all relevant international initiatives, Viachorka adds. He says Tsikhanouskaya’s office understands the challenges Armenia faces and the steps it is taking toward European integration. They welcome these steps because they themselves are trying to take them, but Belarusians have fewer opportunities, since the Belarusian state has been “captured by Lukashenka’s criminal regime.” Therefore, Franak Viachorka says, he somewhat envies Armenians who have their own state.

Russia is no longer Armenia’s friend and ally

Relations between Armenia and Russia soured after the Kremlin refused to intervene in the latest wave of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the side of Armenia, a CSTO ally. Russian “peacekeepers” failed to stop Azerbaijan (not a CSTO member), which in 2023 forcibly seized control of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh). It led to the exodus of over 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.

This is not the only issue,” explained the Armenian expert on international relations, vice-chairman of the “For the Name of the Republic” party to Belsat :

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“The issue is that Russia refuses to recognize Armenia’s borders, which are internationally recognized according to the Alma-Ata Declaration, which Russia itself signed. And which it itself is violating.”

Russia recognizes Armenia as such, but not automatically within the former Armenian SSR: it sees “disputed areas” and insists on border delimitation. When Azerbaijan invaded internationally recognized Armenian territory, Russia “refused to call a spade a spade,” our source notes.

Mehrabyan connects the non-recognition of Armenia’s borders with Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russia, contrary to its international obligations, invaded a neighboring country and annexed its territory. Then, he says, Armenia realized that Russia “is not an ally, not a friend, because when you have friends like that, you don’t need enemies.”

“After that, our relations with the CSTO were frozen,” Mehrabyan continues. “De facto, Armenia is no longer a member of this organization. And de jure, it’s still going by inertia—it’s simply a matter of political timing before Armenia de jure leaves this organization. We don’t cooperate with Russia on defense or security.”

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“Armenia is currently forming, implementing, and developing partnerships with entities with whom we have already established a commonality of values, interests, and goals. And all three of these parameters, as you can see, are not about Russia, God forbid.”

Armenia is currently seeking to gradually replace Russian border guards with its own on the borders with Iran and Turkey – Russian border guards still have to be paid.

Russia doesn’t like any of this. Vladimir Putin effectively threatened Armenia during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on April 1. He said it was impossible to be in two customs unions simultaneously. He noted that Russia sells gas to Armenia at 177.50 USD per thousand cubic meters, while in Europe it sells it for over 600 USD per thousand cubic meters. He stated that there are many pro-Russian forces in Armenia and that Russia would like them to participate in the domestic political struggle (parliamentary elections in Armenia are scheduled for June 7).

“The gas threats didn’t work because Armenia already buys Russian gas at a fairly high price,” Mehrabyan explains. The price Putin quotes is invalid, he says: it’s the price Gazprom Armenia, a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom, pays for gas. The actual price for consumers is twice the wholesale price. He offers an analogy: if this were bread, Putin would be talking about the cost of flour, not the price the bakery lists for bread.

How else can Russia put pressure on Armenia? Mehrabyan replies:

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“Understand: Russia is doing everything it can right now, essentially. The only problem is that Russia can do little right now. It can only hiss like a snake whose poisonous fangs have been pulled out.”

“So she’s hissing, well, we’re taking a philosophical approach to it. And we’re doing what’s in our best interests, without worrying too much about how Russia reacts or doesn’t react.” Mehrabyan particularly noted the arrival of a delegation of Belarusian democratic forces led by Tsikhanouskaya, whom he recognizes as the elected president of Belarus. He recalled that Tsikhanouskaya has already met with Armenian officials, including Pashinyan, at other international venues, such as the Munich Security Conference and previous European Political Community summits. But this is Tsikhanouskaya’s first visit to Armenia:

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“This is very gratifying. It contains great symbolism for Armenia, Belarus, the Armenian nation, and the Belarusian nation, which have been friendly European nations from the very beginning.”

According to Ruben Mehrabyan, it is essential to document, regardless of what the “criminal in the Kremlin” or the “collective farm leader of Belarus” thinks about it.

Ruslan Ihnatovich, Ales Navaborski, Mark Podberezin / PEV belsat.eu