TEN-YEAR PROGRAM ON JAVAKHK REGION DEVELOPMENT TO BE ELABORATED
AKHALKALAKI, November 19 (Noyan Tapan). The Plenipotentiary of the
Georgian President to Samtskhe-Javakheti Nikoloz Nikolozishvili is
going to elaborate the 10-year program on the development of the
region. According to the A-Info Agency, he said about it during
a meeting with the heads of the region, charging them to present
ten-year programs on development for each district.
N. Nikolozishvili hopes that the organizations-donors will play an
important role in the matter of the implementation of the program. He
emphasized that if earlier the organizations-donors worked immediately
with the local sacrebulos, now they cooperate with the government.

Armenian security service arrests school bomb hoaxer
Public Television of Armenia, Yerevan
20 Nov 04
[Presenter over video of Chekhov School] The criminal who made a
hoax phone call about an explosion at the Chekhov School has been
arrested. Criminal responsibility and imprisonment are envisaged for
such an act.
An anonymous phone call was made to the headmistress of Yerevan’s
Chekhov School No 55 on 19 November at around 1000 [0600 gmt] to say
that an act of terrorism was expected.
As a result of operational measures undertaken by the Armenian
National Security Service the caller has been found and subjected to
legal investigation. He is a Yerevan citizen, born in 1961, with a
previous conviction, Armen Serezha Nadzharyan. He is deputy chairman
of the Hope public organization.
It was revealed that Nadzharyan made the phone call to the school
from a phone box on Mashtots Street on 19 November at 0947 [0547 gmt]
and spoke about an alleged terrorist act.
Criminal proceedings into the case have started. Nadzharyan has been
arrested. An investigation is now under way.
The National Security Service appealed to citizens to refrain from
such actions, which inflict moral and material damage on society, and
recalled that criminal responsibility and imprisonment are envisaged
for such acts.
[Video shows Nadzharyan]

The intriguing `stone’
By Shukor Rahman
New Straits Times (Malaysia)
Nov 22, 2004
THE new Islamic Museum in Penang is now exhibiting a replica of the
Batu Bersurat or Terengganu Stone, which is the earliest known record
of Malay words in the Arabic script. SHUKOR RAHMAN writes.
A REPLICA of the famous Batu Bersurat or Terengganu Stone has finally
come to Penang. It is occupying pride of place in the lobby of the
new Islamic Museum at the Syed Alatas Mansion in Lebuh Armenian.
The real stone, a 90cm squared off chunk of grey gneissic granite
bearing Arabic inscriptions, is a tangible piece from Malaysia’s past,
and was discovered in Ulu Terengganu almost 120 years ago.
It is the earliest known record of Malay words in the Arabic script
and its secrets, dating over 600 years, still intrigue scholars.
Only experts can read the inscriptions, part of which have been
eroded by time. The flowing Arabic script carries the edicts of a
ruler whose identity is lost, perhaps forever.
Who was the enlightened sultan who published his laws in stone and
left to posterity proof of his devotion to the cause of Islam? The
patient scribe who toiled by the banks of the Sungai Tersat centuries
ago, chiselling imperishably on rock, would most likely have been an
unsung craftsman.
There are hardly any clues to help you pry its secrets. Perhaps the
best you can do is to travel through time to 14th-century Terengganu.
The place is near Kuala Brang, where three rivers meet.
Historians and scholars believe this was once a state capital.
The people of Kuala Brang probably did not know then that among their
contemporaries were Marco Polo and Kublai Khan. The great Khan, who
was lord of Tartary, had his court at Cambaluc, present-day Beijing.
Terengganu of the 14th century must have had a thriving Muslim
community that had accepted Islam as the official religion almost a
century before the Malacca Sultanate was established.
The Terengganu Stone is indeed proof as the opening sentence of the
inscription is an injunction to the ruling chiefs (Mandalikas) to
“expound and uphold the faith”.
The traditional route of Islam to Peninsular Malaysia is generally
believed to be from Arabia to India and Sumatra but there is evidence
that Islam reached China in the 8th century AD and spread to Cham,
Cambodia and Pattani.
For a new religion to be declared as the state religion, there must
be widespread acceptance by the local communities within the state.
We have to allow for at least three generations to pass from the
time the first converts embraced the new faith. If the date of the
Terengganu inscription is 1303 AD, then the evangelising traders
must have been on the east coast at least 100 years earlier, roughly
1200 AD.
This puts the advent of Islam in Peninsular Malaysia 200 years earlier
than the conversion of Parameswara, who founded the Malacca Sultanate
and took the name Sultan Iskandar Shah, and more than 70 years before
Marco Polo stopped at Perlak, Sumatra, and noted the existence of a
Muslim community there.
As for the Terengganu Stone, what is its origins? Unfortunately,
the top part, which could have been onethird of the whole, had broken
off when it was found.
It is nearly 1.2 metres wide at the top and tapers like a wedge. After
it was inscribed, it was most likely planted on the ground, probably
on the river bank near Kuala Brang. It was found 32km upriver from
Kuala Terengganu in 1887.
Annual monsoon floods that year had eroded part of the river bank. When
the waters receded, the mud-encrusted stone was deposited not far
from the village mosque.
Somebody carried it to the mosque where it served as a foot-rest for
worshippers until a prospector from Riau called at the mosque.
It was well past noon when Syed Hussin Ghulam Al-Bukhari, who was
in the district seeking precious minerals, went to the mosque for
prayers. As he was taking his ablutions, his fingers ran gingerly over
the surface of the unusual foot-rest and he felt the indentations,
with a regular and repetitive pattern.
He then asked his assistant Engku Pengiran Anum to scrub away some
of the mud concealing the lettering.
Realising he had made an exciting discovery, he asked the penghulu
and mosque bilal to carry the stone to his boat.
He then presented the stone to the Terengganu ruler, Sultan Zainal
Abidin III. But it was only several years later before the inscriptions
could be deciphered by scholars.
There is something strikingly familiar in the underlying message
of the Terengganu Stone – belief in God, respect the laws and be of
good behaviour and morality. It was a timeless code of conduct for
a medieval community, and which is today enshrined in the Rukunegara.

Foreign bases in Azerbaijan to damage regional security – analytical group
Zerkalo, Baku
20 Nov 04
The deployment of foreign military bases in Azerbaijan will have a
negative impact on the whole system of regional security, an Azeri
analytical group has said. Commenting in Azeri daily Zerkalo on
recent reports about the possible US military presence in the country,
the analytical group said that such a move would change the regional
balance in Azerbaijan’s favour, but this would be temporary and the
country would have to face “legal and illegal” protests from its
neighbours, Russia and Iran. The USA is trying to use Azerbaijan as
a bridgehead for invading Iran since it is impossible to do it from
Iraq and Afghanistan. In this connection, Azerbaijan should conduct
a well-balanced policy taking into account the interests of all the
regional powers and avoid deploying foreign troops on its territory,
the analytical group said in conclusion. The following is an excerpt
from the CGR analytical group’s report in Azerbaijani newspaper
Zerkalo on 20 November headlined “Azerbaijan is a bridgehead for a
US invasion of Iran” and subheaded “Or we should not hurry to deploy
American bases here”; subheadings inserted editorially:
Obvious contradiction
The problem of the possible deployment of US troops in Azerbaijan is
already not new and has become a subject of heightened interest from
time to time not only in the Azerbaijani, but also in the Western
press. For example, about a month ago the American news agency United
Press International (UPI) reported that American military bases might
be deployed in the “Armenian-occupied” Azerbaijani districts – Fuzuli,
Cabrayil and Zangilan.
Following these reports, the same Western press abounded with news
about possible US strikes on Iran. Of course, the mutual link between
these two actions does not cause any doubt, while opinions on whether
it is true or not differ. On the one hand, everybody remembers
statements by the deputy commander of the US troops in Europe, Air
Force Gen Charles Wald, who is well-known for his frequent visits to
Azerbaijan, that Washington has no intention of setting up a permanent
base in the South Caucasus. We should remind you that he said this
during his visit to Baku in July this year.
On the other hand, former State Secretary Colin Powell recently made
another interesting statement saying that the USA has no intention
of overthrowing the current regime in Iran. The contradiction between
influential media and statements by US officials is too obvious. The
following issue is also of interest: usually, information about alleged
plans to punish Iran is leaked in the West and then commented on at
the local level. Therefore, we can suppose that a certain process of
influencing public opinion is under way with all the consequences
that ensue. It is exactly this approach that makes it possible to
analyse the situation that has developed around Iran, the Middle East
and the South Caucasus as a whole.
Iran greatest threat to America
To say that the USA has certain plans with regard to Iran means to say
nothing. But these plans should be examined in the context of the new
Middle East doctrine put forward by the Bush administration by the end
of his first year in office and entitled the “Greater Middle East”
project, which has far-reaching consequences. This plan envisages
a complex programme of pacifying and democratizing the Middle East
by creating a system of financial and organizational mechanisms of
influencing the region – the “Greater Middle East” concept. The purpose
of the programme is to minimize all types of threats that currently
stem from the region, create prerequisites for long-term stabilization
on the basis of democratic choice and to observe the minimum set of
“rules of the game” in the domestic and international arena. It is
clear that Washington will not confine itself only to peaceful methods
to achieve these goals. Among other countries of the Middle East, it is
exactly Iran that poses the greatest threat to American interests in
the region. Iran is also the strongest state of the Middle East from
a military point of view, and even Israel, which has nuclear weapons,
is afraid of it. It is no secret that Tehran is trying to spread its
influence to the Muslim countries of the Middle East and, in some
way, is appropriating the role of a leader that unites the disunited
Muslim countries. Although the success of such a mission causes doubt.
Attack on Iran to cause deep crisis in Western economy
However, even such attempts by Tehran cause a sharply negative reaction
from the USA. For this reason, it is no surprise that Iran is turning
into the main object of attacks by Washington. To some extent, the
increasing confrontation between the USA and Iran is furthered by
Iran’s aspirations to influence the processes that are taking place
in Iraq, namely to bring pro-Iranian forces to power. Nevertheless,
we can presume that American wrath against Iran will not turn into
hostilities for the time being. First, oil prices are very high in
the world and will skyrocket even higher if the situation in Iran
destabilizes, as a result of which the Western economy will fall into
a deep crisis. Second, European Union countries, which have great
interests in Iran, unlike the USA, especially in the same fuel issue,
have shown a sharply negative reaction to all talk about it.
[Passage omitted: British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has said that
a war on Iran will claim hundreds of thousands of lives]
USA to use Azerbaijan as a bridgehead
The war on Iran is not linked only to diplomatic difficulties. It
does not stand up to criticism from a military-tactical point of view
either. Analysts think that, in theory, the USA might use Armenia,
Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan as a bridgehead for the
invasion. Armenia can be automatically taken off the list as it is an
ally of Iran and Russia. As for Syria, US relations with this country
are the subject of a separate article. In principle, nothing will stop
the USA from using Iraq and Afghanistan as a bridgehead. However,
neither Iraq nor Afghanistan are suitable for this purpose since
guerrilla warfare is going on in those countries. The only choice is
Azerbaijan whose territory the USA could see as a possible bridgehead
for an invasion of Iran. But to this end, it is necessary to deploy
the aforesaid bases, which even Russia does not have in Azerbaijan.
In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan managed to get Russian troops withdrawn
from its territory. We remember that as a far-sighted politician the
late [Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev had stated that not only
Russia, but also any other foreign country will not have military
bases in Azerbaijan. Noting that Azerbaijan has sufficient forces of
its own, he even opposed the arrival of US special security forces
to guard the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Not by chance did the
Milli Maclis pass a law forbidding the deployment of foreign troops
on Azerbaijani territory. Azerbaijan’s position on this issue is
clear and understandable, although the USA is almost the only great
power that has interests nearly in all four corners of the world and
military cooperation with that country is of special importance to
Azerbaijan. It is also necessary to take into account the geopolitics
of the region. Our country is geographically situated in a region
where the interests of several centres of power, even non-regional
ones, are concentrated.
The East-West, North-South transport corridors, strategic pipelines and
abundant hydrocarbon resources are ideas that are linked to Azerbaijan
first of all. All this necessitates the conduct of a well-balanced
policy, taking into account the position of all the countries that
are interested in the region in order to preserve regional stability,
balance and ensure the country’s economic development.
Foreign troops in Azerbaijan to damage regional security
For this reason, any deployment of foreign military bases in
Azerbaijan will have a negative impact on the whole system of regional
security. Yes, such a political move would allow us to change the
regional balance in our favour, but this would be temporary and as a
result, Azerbaijan would have to face legal and illegal protests from
the rest of the centres of power. Of course, it would be extremely
foolish to discard neighbouring Russia and Iran.
Although our northern neighbour is lagging behind the USA in many
parameters, it does not necessarily mean that Moscow is going to
give up so easily its positions in the post-Soviet area. The fact
that Russia is giving open support to candidate Viktor Yanukovych in
the presidential elections in Ukraine, is planning to strengthen the
Russian bases in CIS countries, especially in Central Asia, with new
aircraft and other battle-worthy “hi-tech” units and is tiring its
neighbours out by closing the Russian border demonstrates once again
that Moscow has considerable military-political and economic resources
to influence the situation in the CIS region. An American-Russian
confrontation because of Azerbaijan also looks unrealistic. As Charles
Wald pointed out, Russia should not be worried about any redeployment
of US troops from western Europe. He said that the USA looks on Russia
as a “strategic ally, especially from a military point of view”.
For this reason, the deployment of some bases in Azerbaijan seems to
be a hopeless thing. It is not by chance that commenting on the fuss
about the deployment of foreign bases in Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov stated that our country is not
having consultations with anyone to allow its territory to be used
for attacking the Islamic Republic of Iran. So, information about
such US intentions allows the USA itself to learn in more detail the
international community’s reaction to its strategic intentions. But
this is not the end of it. The reports circulating around the world
about a war allegedly being prepared against Iran are an integral
part of America’s foreign policy tactics.
This is a sort of information pressure – a policy of verbal deterrence
against Iran in order to make it give up its political ambitions and
weapons of mass destruction. Is this policy effective? At least news
was recently circulated around the world that Iran has agreed to stop
enriching uranium, but as the head of the Iranian Supreme National
Security Council, [Hasan] Rowhani, pointed out, this is temporary
and pursues political aims. Isn’t this tactic part of a long-term
strategy of an armed conflict with Iran? There are no guarantees.
Therefore, Azerbaijan should stick to a well-balanced foreign policy
on the issue of military bases. There is no alternative to this,
and we should not hurry to deploy the bases here.
[Signed] The CGR analytical group.

Fitch upgrades Azerbaijan 
Interfax
22.11.2004
London. (Interfax) – Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency,
upgraded Azerbaijan’s Long-term foreign currency and local currency
ratings to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘ (BB minus), the agency said in a press
release.
The Short-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at ‘B’. Following
the upgrade, the Outlook for the Long-term ratings is now Stable.
The upgrade reflects a combination of macroeconomic stability and
low general government debt, together with the ongoing development
of the important oil and gas sector.
The high oil prices of the past two years have been relatively well
managed by the authorities, resulting in consolidated budget surpluses
and an accumulation of foreign reserves and assets in the State Oil
Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ).
Notwithstanding pressures to raise social expenditure, government
debt is forecast to remain equivalent to around 20% GDP for the next
two to three years. The majority of government debt is external,
and carries relatively low rates of interest and long maturities.
If official foreign exchange reserves and the external assets of
SOFAZ are taken into account, the general government is a net external
creditor to the tune of around 4% of GDP at end-2004.
Key oil and gas projects are proceeding as expected, pointing to
a sharp increase in output and export capacity as well as budget
revenues starting in 2006. This development is likely to increase
Azerbaijan’s dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, although rising
output will offer some insulation from price shocks.
While a large proportion of oil revenues have been placed with SOFAZ,
Fitch will continue to monitor oil wealth management closely. As oil
output rises, it will be increasingly important for the government
to adopt a long-term oil revenue management strategy to deal with
the windfalls that fall outside the State Fund.
This is of particular importance given the country’s limited economic
diversity and finite reserves of oil and gas, which could become
exhausted within 20 years.
Against a firm macroeconomic backdrop, structural reform has
effectively stalled. The privatization program remains subject to
delay and resistance, and the next stage of energy reform has been
slow in coming.
Meanwhile, efforts to diversify the economy have been weak. Although
the October presidential elections passed smoothly, Fitch believes
that the new regime will be subject to greater political risk than
the previous administration. While this is unlikely to lead to major
unrest, power vacuums or an escalation of tensions with Armenia, it
does suggest that the structural reform process will be more difficult.
As the country’s external balance sheet improves further and public
finances strengthen on the back of rising oil revenues, there could
be upward pressure on the rating, but the economy will, nonetheless,
remain highly exposed to sharp oil price fluctuations.
Continued prudent management of oil revenues through the State Oil
Fund is critical, as is the eventual adoption of a broader, more
comprehensive oil revenue management strategy. Structural reforms,
especially in the energy and financial sector will be lesser, albeit
important, considerations.
–Boundary_(ID_iFJD8tVB/kqfJJWPMttC0g)–

Midland Resources to sell Armenian power utility 
Interfax
22.11.2004  
Yerevan. (Interfax) – Midland Resources Holding Ltd. intends to sell
Electric Networks of Armenia (ArmElNet), Armenia’s national electricity
distribution company, with Russia’s Unified Energy System (UES) among
the potential buyers, Yevgeny Glandunchuk, ArmElNet’s general director,
told Interfax.
Midland Resources is concentrating more on its metals business, which
will receive the proceeds from the ArmElNet sale, Glandunchuk said.
“The problem is in the price which buyers might offer,” he said. The
owner has not received any lucrative offers yet, he said.
It could take a year to sell the network, but by then it will
have become more expensive with the need to invest in it and reduce
electricity losses, Glandunchuk said. Anybody buying the company right
now could he safe in the knowledge that the outlay would be recouped
in eight years, he said.
He also said Midland Resources only had the right to sell 25% of
ArmElNet on its own and would need the Armenian government’s clearance
to sell the remaining 75%.
Midland Resources bought ArmElNet for $12.15 million in November 2002,
but pledged an additional $27.985 million to clear the company’s debts.
–Boundary_(ID_5nxKXSls1nDquqz9pTQp9Q)–

Armenian economy expands 9.7% in 10 mths
Interfax
22.11.2004  
 
Yerevan. (Interfax) – Armenian GDP grew 9.7% year-on-year to 1.485
trillion dram in January-October, the National Statistics Service
told Interfax.
Industrial output rose 1.5% to 424.9 billion dram year-on-year in
the ten months but fell 0.3% in October compared with September.
Farm output rose 13.8% to 389.1 billion dram and electricity output
increased 8.9% to 4.877 billion kWh in the ten months.
Armenian foreign trade grew 3% year-on-year to 903 billion dram in
January-October.
The exchange rate averaged at 541.25 dram/$1 in the ten months. It
was 501.84 dram/$1 on November 22.
–Boundary_(ID_CJjgPKnasCWTwAFbsyT8bQ)–

Priority objective for economic development
Editorial
Yerkir/arm
November 19, 2004
During the recent period, Armenia has been experiencing economic
and political stability which enables development of a mid and long
term strategies.
However, there are some obvious arguments here. Supporters of active
constructive policy, justly referring to the failures of the market,
unjustly propose increasing of role of the government, especially in
branch industry policy. On the opposite side, neo-liberals propose
to continue liberalization of the market.
These parties have more in common than they admit. Both stand on the
role of institutes (in the first case Рstate, in the second ̢~@~S
market). However, both views are dubious from practical policy
standpoint for the reasons of actual need to change the available
policy or lack of resources.
Anyway, how can we contribute to proportional development of the two
institutions? Note that only in case of successful balance we can
have prosperous and competitive economy.
We single out the following basic approaches: first, unification
approach of government and market. This means a strategy that would
enable establishment both of the state and the market. Second,
effective use of knowledge. Institutional reforms take time. If
knowledge is properly used, the reforms may speed up.
Third, approach of institutional innovations. It takes turning
knowledge into behavior of economic stakeholders and the society to
make the knowledge work, to make it demanded by the market. This is
about social education.
In other word, issues number one for the development of the Armenian
economy is the development of the knowledge “industry”. This is a
pledge for transition to a competitive market.
Creative usage of market and technological knowledge enable solution
of many transitional issues. On the other hand, without development
of the knowledge “economy” it will be difficult to provide desired
economic and consequently strategic-political security level.
–Boundary_(ID_QYWEuljQON7+/igX58r43Q)–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Turk has been here
Yerkir/arm
November 19, 2004
Organization Studying Armenian Architecture, an NGO, has published
a calendar called “Turkey: Cultural Genocide,” which shows the fate
of the Armenian monuments in Turkey.
Photos on the left side of the calendar were taken in the beginning
of the 20th century, the photos on the right-hand side show what
these monuments were turned into in the beginning of the 21st century.
These pictures are a unique civilization “passport” of Turkey which
is trying to join the European Union. If Europeans view the European
Union as a civilization value and not as a mere geographic spot,
and if the Europeans haven’t forgotten “A Turk has been here,” then
Turkey should not get an entry visa to Europe.

Students’ urgencies
By Karine Mangasarian
Yerkir/arm
November 19, 2004
During a meeting with the students of the history faculty of the
Yerevan State University, the representative of ARF Supreme Body,
chairman of the NA standing committee Armen Rustamian touched upon the
issues of the constitutional reforms and “Electoral Code” amendments,
calling the latter two key elements of “construction of the national
political system and statehood.”
This meeting was organized by ARF youth organization after Nikol
Aghbalian and student council of the historical faculty. Students
were enabled to ask questions on the topic of the day.
One of the students expressed anxiety about the possibility of
elimination of the party-list system, since in this case the same
wealthy people that are elected from single member constituencies may
merge with parties and again penetrate into the parliament. Rustamian
explained that even if such people join parties they will have to
working on a certain platform and will have to be keeping to the
platform. Otherwise, people will no longer vote for the party.
Another question was about the status of the Armenian church in the
new constitution and the issues with Jehovah’s witnesses. Rustamian
said that the new constitution defines the status and historical
role of the church in the development of the statehood. As the sects,
the church must conduct an ideological fight with them.
Rustamian also answered the question of the Karabagh issue being
included in the UN agenda, saying that Azerbaijan is trying to
include a this issues in all possible structures, especially those
not acquainted with the roots of the issue. Thus, Rustamian believes
the Armenian authorities must find way of defying this strategy.
Rustamian also spoke about the difficult situation in Javakhk and
mentioned that Georgia has so far not ratified the convention on
national minorities which it signed to in the European Council.
And the last question was about the 90th year of commemoration of
the Armenian Genocide. Rustamian said that Armenia is and will be
making efforts to reach its recognition first of all by the EU, since
Turkey itself is its member and will be more compelled to recognize
it itself. On the other hand, the next year must be symbolic for
uniting Armenians around the world.