June: 12, 2026
People who manipulate my speech either didn’t understand my speech or are idiots. The third president of RA, Serzh Sargsyan, said this in a conversation with journalists, commenting on his statement: “I don’t think that Pashinyan will be elected for the 3rd term, because the previous elections were extraordinary.”
“The question was asked in the context of the amendment of the Constitution, and my answer was derived from that logic. The people who manipulate my speech either did not understand my speech or are idiots because only an idiot could think that I can justify someone who took RA to a conscious capitulation, who surrendered my motherland, who attacked my church and who left the territories of my country under the capitulation of the enemy, and what happens that despite all this he is guilty of the 3rd term to go? It is obvious that it will certainly not work for them, they will fail, what I said was very clear. I don’t want to answer any more questions,” said Sargsyan.
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If we find it, we will remove Pashinyan faster by going to the Parliament, we will go
June: 12, 2026
We applied to the CEC, then we will apply to the Constitutional Court with 2 demands, the first is to cancel the elections, the second is to schedule a second round, if Pashinyan is sure that he has won, let him go to the second round. Samvel Karapetyan, leader of the “Strong Armenia” party, said this in a conversation with journalists.
“We didn’t win either, Pashinyan didn’t win either, that’s why we say that Armenia needs a legitimate government, he didn’t provide it. The elections are completely rigged, they are failed, they don’t hold elections under terror, all district coordinators are arrested.
Our issue is not the parliament, our issue is to remove Pashinyan, if we find that we will remove Pashinyan faster through the parliament, we will go to the parliament, if we find that we can remove him through a street struggle, we will remove him that way,” Karapetyan noted.
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“We will apply 2 demands: to cancel the results of the elections, to appoint a new one
June: 12, 2026
“Strong Armenia” will take the mandates if it thinks that Nikol Pashinyan will be removed from power faster that way. Party leader Samvel Karapetyan made this statement in a briefing with journalists near the anti-corruption court.
“If we find that we will remove Pashinyan faster through the parliament, then we will go to the parliament. If we find that we can remove them through a street fight, then we will go that way,” said Samvel Karapetyan.
He insisted that Pashinyan did not win the elections.
Karapetyan emphasized that if the KP is sure that they have won, they should agree to the second round to legitimize the results.
“Armenia must have a legitimate government for the country to develop,” he declared.
According to Karapetyan, the second round will be easier, because there will be no pollsters.
He also announced that “Strong Armenia” will appeal to the Constitutional Court.
“We will make two demands: to cancel the results of the elections, to schedule new elections or a second round,” said Karapetyan.
He added that the main decision-maker is the people. If the people decide to come to terms with the election results, they will accept it. According to him, the people are still thinking about what to do, because they need time to make a decision.
“Americans, Azerbaijanis, Turks, Europeans, Russians won these elections, the Armenian people lost. Everyone won, except our people,” he announced.
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The Union of Centrist Democrats calls on the RA authorities to provide
June: 12, 2026
The Union of Pro-Centre Democrats expresses its solidarity with the representative of the Armenian opposition, Armen Ashotyan, who was arrested again on a pre-initiated order, on unclear grounds.
“Referring to our statement condemning political persecution in Armenia, we call on the Armenian authorities to ensure transparency and respect due legal procedures.
Respect for democratic principles, political pluralism and the rule of law is vital for Armenia’s democratic future,” the statement said.
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There is no washing machine that would “refresh” and “clean” more than Nicole.
June: 12, 2026
Political prisoner, RPA vice-chairman Armen Ashotyan sent a note from the detention center through lawyers, which we present below.
Being illegally imprisoned again and joining the ranks of dozens of political prisoners in Armenia, I was in a virtual information blockade. However, Edmon Marukyan’s next insidious and dirty discharge about Serzh Sargsyan and me penetrated even from the dark and thick walls of the prison.
During the entire election campaign, he tried to make himself important by regularly throwing stones in our direction, but we did not see the need to make a serious opponent out of him and totally ignored him.
Now that the election is over (with a particularly embarrassing result for Edmond), Edmond’s villainy has reached a new record high. Answer him from prison.
Convey to him that this expired and discarded vintick, who worked in the Nicolaitan regime, has no political or moral right to moral discourse or analysis.
Convey to him that I, Armen Ashotyans, do not need to be mentioned by him or, even more, to be “worried about”. That I remember very well his behavior as Nikol’s ambassador in Vienna in December 2022, both in the presence of the Azerbaijani delegates and during his conversation with me.
Tell him that he wishes he had a friend like Serzh Sargsyan or as loyal as I am.
Convey to him that it is not decent and unethical to refer to a sitting person in such a way and drag him into a dirty topic (if, of course, he still remembers the meaning of the word).
If he doesn’t have the guts or conscience to talk about me being a political prisoner, let him shut up.
After all, there is no such washing machine that would “renew” and “clean” Nicole’s repeatedly used rag, and there is no wardrobe where that second hand has a place.
The rest after my freedom.
P.S. Dear compatriot, after the regular return to information streams from quarantine, I will again share my thoughts and opinions with you, as during the previous imprisonment. Thank you for your support to me and my family.
Freedom to all political prisoners.
ARMEN ASHOTIAN
Vice President of RPA
«Nubarashen» CCA
12.06.2026
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The primary task of the army is to be a security factor. it cannot be considered o
June: 12, 2026
On June 9, our “Pashinyan broke his revolutionary promise: the armed forces should not be a political factor. In the footsteps of electoral processes” with the caption in the article we also referred to the participation of the army in the last NA elections as a political factor and the episodes of taking the soldiers to the precincts after 20:00 on the voting day.
We did not ignore CEC President Vahagn Hovakimyan’s operative regarding the opinion that military personnel will be brought to the polling stations after 20:00 on June 7. the claim or that nothing illegal happened.
“Before 20:00 in the evening, the soldiers were in front of the door of the polling station, waiting for their turn, and here a problem arose: either close the door of the polling station for the soldiers and not let them in so that they could exercise their right to vote, or let them in.” on June 8 in a conversation with journalists, he elaborated, stressing that those soldiers have been waiting in front of the polling stations for a long time and could not simply enter due to the queues at the polling station, and that such a problem occurred in only 2 polling stations.
On June 9 Edward Asryan, head of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces, was also in the conversation with the journalists to assure that the soldiers voted within the law. In other words, according to the requirements of the Electoral Code, “it doesn’t matter if he is a soldier or an ordinary citizen, he is in the territory of the electoral district, he is allowed to continue his constitutional duty.”
“Our servicemen were in the territory of the polling station at the appointed time, that is, no serviceman came to the polling station late.” Asryan emphasized.
In response to the objection that there is a precinct where the soldiers entered after 20:00, the head of the General Election Commission urged to address the remaining questions to the Central Electoral Commission and other related bodies.
And one more on June 11 The CEC convenes an extraordinary session and declares the decision invalid 35/65 (Syunik, Agarak) and 10/51 Voting results of (Nubarashen) precincts.
“The commission recognized as invalid the results of the voting in the electoral precinct No. 10/51 formed in the service area of the electoral district electoral commission No. 10 and the results of the voting in the electoral district No. 35/65 organized in the service area of the electoral district electoral commission No. 35 for the purpose of organizing and holding the regular elections of the National Assembly on June 7, 2026.
The commission decided to record the number of voting participants in precinct No. 10/51, 1287, as the sum of inaccuracies in precinct No. 10/51.
The number of voters in precinct No. 35/65: 1315 (one thousand three hundred and fifteen) was recorded as the total number of inaccuracies in Precinct No. 35/65.
The other results (numbers) of the protocols of election precincts No. 10/51 and No. 35/65, except for the amount of inaccuracies, were recorded as 0 (zero).
The materials of election precincts No. 10/51 and No. 35/65 have been sent to the prosecutor’s office,” it was noted at the extraordinary session of the CEC. protocol in
At the same time, CP deputy Vahagn Aleksanyan posted on his Facebook page note: does, noting:
“As a result of the hysteria raised by the opposition due to the soldiers’ vote, the results of 2 precincts are canceled. in which CP had a total of 1224 votes.
Any time this opposition utters the words “army” or “soldier” in the next five years, they must remember that they generated a process to invalidate the vote of the soldiers who got off the shift and voted.”
After this post, the deputies of the government put up appropriate “screens” from the representatives of the opposition forces, related to the soldiers’ vote.
Meanwhile, the opposition forces claim that all this is being done in order to steal the votes of the PAP and not leave it to the parliament. Maybe. In this case, the problem is not this, but that authorities can invalidate what they thought was legal within 2-3 days.
That is, when media was video publish that the soldiers were not in the precinct as of 20:00, but entered the precinct after 20:00, when the Eyewitness observation mission reported that about 480 soldiers were allowed to vote after 20:00, the authorities claimed that there was nothing illegal.
And after a few more days, it is decided to invalidate the results of the soldiers’ voting in the above-mentioned precincts and “throw” the blame for it in the pocket of the opposition.
If everything was legal, if the late entry of soldiers to the precinct, or the accumulation had objective reasons, as was presented a few days ago, although the shift could have been properly organized, then why is the army once again made a part of the political game and their votes are invalidated?
Is it justified to meet the dissatisfaction of the opposition when there is a problem of the reputation of the army, of course not. In other words, for the second time we are witnessing a disrespectful attitude towards the army in a short time.
If the government had to do this, why wasn’t it done immediately, why didn’t they demand responsibility from the relevant command? We think everything is obvious.
By the way, let’s mention that in one of Sotk’s precincts, it is also related to soldiers a shameful picture was presented, but there is no question about this, they did not manage to choose the soldiers who were brought to the precinct on the voting day. And? 35/65 (Syunik, Agarak) and 10/51 In the (Nubarashen) precincts, there should essentially be a re-vote and the soldiers should be decommissioned and taken to the polls again, perhaps at a time limit that has already been set.
To what extent some opposition forces have the right to name the army and the soldiers or not, it will still be discussed, maybe some of them don’t. But there are many episodes and cases that the government has deprived itself of its moral right for a long time.
The army and the soldier should first of all be considered as an important factor in ensuring the security of the country, and not become participants in petty political games, even if the problem, as it is presented, is to meet the dissatisfaction of the opposition, if everything does not lead to that.
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Taxes are being raised because Armenia’s economy is not growing. Economist
June: 12, 2026
3 days after the elections, the Government raised excise taxes, which implies an increase in the price of cigarettes, alcohol and fuel.
The government has approved the draft law “On Amendments to the RA Tax Code”, which envisages revising the rates of goods subject to excise tax. According to the executive, the initiative aims to provide additional tax revenues, harmonize excise taxes with EAEU countries, as well as take into account the projected inflation in the coming years.
“When the law comes into force, the public will immediately feel the consequences, because it will have an immediate impact on tariffs.” 168.amreferring to the review of rates, he mentioned Economist Nairi Sargsyan, head of the “Armenia is me” political initiative.
Speaking about the justifications presented by the government, Nairi Sargsyan reminded that even before the elections, there were regular talks about the pre-election actions carried out at the expense of future taxes.
“When the government showed haste, introduced a health insurance system, increased pensions, etc., they were not planned with the budget, and if they were not planned, naturally, they would not meet the budget expenses, and I will not be silent about the revenues at all. In such a case, when the economy does not have the potential to increase the volume of products and services, there is only one option left: increasing the tax rate or expanding the tax base. Now they have to raise taxes, because in reality, Armenia’s economy is not growing.
Here comes the question: what tax should we raise so that a wave of public dissatisfaction does not arise immediately after the elections due to political turbulence, that is, we have an adequate answer to it? it is the excise tax. Excise tax is almost always interpreted by many governments of the world as being aimed at taxing products that are harmful to health, and thereby trying to prevent the sale of products that are harmful to health, such as tobacco and alcoholic beverages, and public sentiments are softened, he explained.
According to the economist, for now they are increasing the excise tax, but in the very near future we will witness an increase in other taxes, and its impact will naturally be negative on the social condition of the Republic of Armenia, on the people’s standard of living, from agriculture to processing production.
“Let me say one conditional point. if, for example, the daily service fee for agricultural machinery is 100,000 AMD to cultivate a certain X amount of land, then due to the excise tax, the price of diesel fuel will increase and it will become, for example, 120,000 AMD. And he will obligatorily include the 20,000 drams increase in the tariff of agricultural products, which, if we correlate with the expected opening of the Turkish border and the flooding of the Armenian market with Turkish products, creates a favorable condition for the unhindered sale of Turkish products in Armenia and the complete elimination of Armenian agricultural products, agricultural products in general, “said Nairi Sargsyan, adding that the logistical costs possible inflation as a result of the increase.
By the way, if this draft is accepted by the National Assembly, the new rates will start to operate on July 1, just one month after the parliamentary elections.
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RFE/RL – Armenian Election Results Thrown Into Uncertainty
In a move which critics say is aimed at giving the ruling Civil Contract party a more comfortable majority in Armenia’s new parliament, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has annulled parliamentary election results in two precincts.
The CEC announced the decision on Thursday night, provoking a storm of condemnation from the country’s main opposition groups that had already refused to recognize Civil Contract’s election victory. One of them, the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK), has been battling to ensure its presence in the National Assembly, which would deny Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s party a 60 percent majority required for enacting key laws and installing senior law-enforcement officials and judges.
According to preliminary official results of the June 7 elections, the BHK lacked just a few dozen votes to pass a 4 percent threshold for gaining parliament seats. It claims to have recovered more than 200 votes as a result of ballot recounts and verifications of vote protocols conducted in recent days. The annulment of the vote results in the two rural precincts essentially offset those gains. The BHK garnered 213 votes there.
The opposition party led by businessman Gagik Tsarukian accused the CEC of stealing its badly needed votes that would translate into 5 seats in the 105-member parliament. The other major opposition contenders echoed the accusations.
“This … once again proves that the ongoing process has nothing to do with the idea of fair and transparent elections and calls into question the legitimacy of the entire election process,” said BHK spokeswoman Iveta Tonoyan.
The CEC did not immediately explain the controversial decision. Vahagn Aleksanian, the ruling party’s deputy chairman, attributed it to the fact that hundreds of Armenian army conscripts voted in the precincts after polls across the country supposedly closed at 8 p.m. on Sunday. Aleksanian argued that the opposition itself decried this fact as a serious violation of Armenian law.
Vahagn Hovakimian, a longtime Pashinian ally heading the CEC, as well as the chief of the Armenian army’s General Staff, Lieutenant-General Eduard Asrian, denied the violation earlier this week.
As of Friday afternoon, the CEC did not clarify whether its decision means that the parliamentary elections will be rerun in the two precincts. Environment Minister Hambardzum Matevosian, who is a also senior ruling party figure, said this is the course of action mandated by the Armenian Electoral Code.
“I’m not a lawyer, but as far as I know, when the results of a polling station are canceled, a rerun has to be called, according to the code,” Matevosian told journalists.
Some opposition representatives demanded a nationwide rerun of the polls, saying that vote results from the two polling stations affected the overall election outcome.
The CEC’s is due to release the final election results this Sunday. Its preliminary figures were rejected by the Armenian opposition as fraudulent even before its decision announced overnight.
According to them, Civil Contract won the elections with 49.8 percent of the vote. Billionaire Samvel Karapetian’s Strong Armenia bloc came in second with 23.3 percent, followed by former President Robert Kocharian’s Hayastan alliance (9.9 percent) and the BHK (3.996 percent). Strong Armenia and Hayastan plan to challenge these results in the Constitutional Court.
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No one can explain to the international community where those 200 votes went
June: 12, 2026
The guest of 168TV’s “Zara has a question” program is lawyer, human rights defender Hovhannes Khudoyan.
Below are some of the theses voiced by Hovhannes Khudoyan during the conversation․
- A very clear requirement of the law stipulates that if, as a result of invalidating the results of any electoral district, after the total votes are counted, it will become clear that the votes of that district can have an impact on the results, then there should be a re-voting.
- We have seen many election violations, starting from the beginning of pre-election campaigning to various anomalies during the counting process. Also, we do not see proper communication by the CEC with the public.
- As for the applications to the Constitutional Court, I know that the applications are being prepared for the “Armenia” bloc, and I am helping to prepare such an application. Usually, the Constitutional Court requires mathematical precision in these matters. For example, even if we admit that the most surprising violations occurred in 10 precincts, they can be a basis for canceling the general elections if they were of national significance, that is, they had a quantitative impact. Now, in the example of the PAP, this is very clearly and formulaically confirmed. And if they commit illegality and re-voting is not scheduled in those precincts, this will definitely have grounds to satisfy the complaint in the Constitutional Court with simple arithmetic accuracy.
- There will be a political desire to destroy everything and make people look like fools to move forward, but no one, and also in front of the international community, can never explain where those 200 votes went.
- There are separate reports of international observers, which talk about many targeted violations, both in terms of abuse of administrative resources and the use of criminal legal instruments. More neutral reports or positive reports are about election day voting procedures because those last day actions, even if flawed, are very easily correctable; everything is recorded, all kinds of mistakes are recorded, and all guilty persons can be held accountable. Much more profound are all the violations that have a very intense intervention during the pre-election and pre-election campaign stage, but you cannot make them clearly measurable. For example, we have repeatedly talked about the involvement of law enforcement agencies in political propaganda.
- We see double standards. when in the case of an action, criminal prosecution is initiated against the oppositionist, but when the same action or a more striking action is performed by the representative of the government, criminal proceedings are refused. For example, the mayor of Tallinn donates money from the municipal budget during the election campaign period. They say that there is no problem, when a representative of some other force is engaged in charity, they say that there is a legal requirement. And these episodes are many, if the law enforcement agencies spend their operational resources to intercept the opposition parties, to get information, we do not see that they are eavesdropping on the same theory, following government representatives, and there are many such data.
- Under the authority of the head of the communal department of one of the regional communities of the region, the workers are taken and registered in one of the remote villages, where he is the chairman of the commission, is this organic or not organic?
- In the case where I strongly believe that if they do not commit a very obvious illegality, and the PAP passes the parliament anyway, and thereby deprives the CP of the 3/5 majority, causing very serious political problems for them, in this case the answer is unequivocally yes, the mandates should be taken. If they also violate this, I cannot give an unequivocal answer, although my personal opinion, all the same, is inclined to the idea of taking a mandate, not because it is pleasant to go to the parliament to engage in various dialogues, fight, get hit, etc., but because having a faction in the National Assembly gives rights, even if the use of a part of them will make the struggle much easier than without them.
- At least for a literate person, it should be obvious that all these actions are the result of a political directive.
Details in the video.
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Iran is trying to act in the South Caucasus not only as a security force
June: 12, 2026
A few days ago, there were reports of American strikes against Iran, and today Iranian sources wrote that Iran has published a 14-point memorandum of settlement with the United States.
According to Mehr, the document includes the following provisions: an immediate cessation of fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, the lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days and the withdrawal of US forces from the territories bordering the Islamic Republic, the submission of at least $300 billion in reconstruction projects by the US and its allies to Iran, and the suspension of sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products. In addition, according to the document, within 60 days, Iran and the USA should hold negotiations on the nuclear issue, as a result of which an agreement will be signed.
What developments will there be, will there be a new wave of serious military conflict on these and other issues? 168.amhas talked With Iran expert, political analyst Aram Shahnazaryan.
– The next potential Iran-US-Israeli military conflict is likely to be somewhat different from the 12-day and 40-day wars, as all sides already have a clearer understanding of the capabilities and vulnerabilities tested in the previous two wars. In case of a possible next conflict, the parties will act on the basis of already accumulated experience and revised military calculations. This means that the actions will be more targeted, technological and strategic in nature.
A key feature of a possible next war may be that the parties will try not to simply increase the number of strikes, but to more effectively target the enemy’s decision-making, command and control, air defense, communications and intelligence systems, and strategic economic and civilian infrastructure.
During the 40-day war, it became clear that even the most advanced defense systems cannot completely prevent Iran’s missile and anti-aircraft missile threats, and mass strikes have a significant economic and psychological impact. Therefore, in a future conflict, priority will be given to those actions that will weaken the enemy’s control and reaction capabilities, as well as the rear.
At the same time, the possible war will most likely take on the character of a multi-domain and multi-layered conflict, including military, cyber, maritime, economic and energy directions, they will become the key elements of the conflict. The experience of the 40-day war showed that cyberattacks, operations against satellite and intelligence systems, attempts to control maritime communications, and influence energy markets can be as important as direct military operations.
From the global point of view, the main difference of the next conflict will be that it will take place in the conditions of the new military-political realities that have already formed. The 40-day war showed that a regional conflict can quickly turn into a challenge for international security and the world economy. In other words, the key issue in a possible future war will be not only the military outcome, but also whether the US will succeed in preventing the escalation of the conflict into a wider regional or international crisis or not.
– On the one hand, Turkish President Erdogan continues to consider Netanyahu’s administration to be genocidal, on the other hand, Turkey has started not to exclude the issue of normalization of relations with Israel, of course, setting specific conditions, including demanding the cessation of Israeli operations in Gaza. I would like to consider this issue also in the context of actions against Iran and Turkey’s position on this matter.
– That circumstance is important to take into account, because it changes the logic of the regional power equation.
If Turkey and Israel move in the direction of partial or gradual normalization of relations, then the possible next Iran-US-Israel conflict will take place in a significantly changed geopolitical environment. The experience of the 40-day war showed that the positions of regional actors can be no less important than direct military operations. In that sense, Ankara’s policy can become an important factor affecting the development of the conflict, especially if Turkey tries to simultaneously maintain its influence in both Western and regional directions.
From Iran’s point of view, the settlement of relations between Turkey and Israel can be perceived as an element of a new regional power arrangement. Tehran is traditionally sensitive to such processes that can increase Israel’s political, economic or security presence in Iran’s immediate neighborhood. Therefore, if the Ankara-Tel Aviv dialogue is restored, Iran will most likely try to activate its relations with other regional partners and strengthen its own deterrence mechanisms.
At the same time, the settlement of relations between Turkey and Israel does not necessarily turn into an anti-Iranian alliance.
Ankara usually strives to maintain its strategic independence and foreign policy maneuverability. Therefore, it is more likely that Turkey will try to use the settlement of relations with Israel as an additional diplomatic and economic resource, rather than getting involved in an open war architecture against Iran. However, even such a limited settlement could affect Iran’s strategic calculations and become an important external factor in future conflicts.
– Before the NA elections A framework agreement on strategic cooperation on the “Trump Path for International Peace and Prosperity” project was signed between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America. Today, when there are unresolved Iran-US issues and the page of military conflict is not closed, How do you see the fate of TRIPP, is there a change in the Iranian position or can there be?
– The fate of TRIPP, the “Trump Path to International Peace and Prosperity”, depends to a large extent on the extent to which it will be perceived by the states of the region as a platform for economic cooperation or as a tool for new geopolitical realignments. From Iran’s point of view, the main reservations about the initiative are preserved, because in Tehran it is viewed not only as an economic and transport project, but mainly as a mechanism for strengthening the influence of the USA and its partners in the region. The security challenges arising from the project are especially highlighted, as well as the fact that such projects can generally bypass Iran’s territory and significantly weaken its traditional role as an East-West and North-South communication hub. At the same time, the 40-day war has somewhat changed Iranian calculations.
The war showed that a regional strategy based on military and security factors alone is not enough to maintain long-term influence. Economic ties, logistics corridors, technological cooperation and regional integration projects are also turning into important tools of power. For this reason, Tehran will probably still not seek to openly obstruct all such initiatives, but will try to ensure that they do not lead to Iran’s isolation or a reduction in its regional role.
The main challenge for Iran is related to the security component. There is a fear in Tehran that some economic and transport cooperation projects could turn into political and security cooperation platforms over time, where Israel’s presence or influence will expand in Iran’s immediate neighborhood.
After the 40-day war, these concerns have become more acute, as Iran has begun to consider issues of regional infrastructure and communication networks not only from an economic perspective, but also from a national security perspective.
Therefore, there is no radical change in Iran’s position yet. Tehran continues to treat TRIPP with reservations, but after the experience of the war, it pays more attention not to the complete rejection of the initiative, but to what kind of place and role it can have in these processes.
Iran’s strategic goal is likely to remain the same: to prevent the formation of a regional economic and security architecture that would target its own security, diminish its geopolitical importance, or strengthen the positions of competitors in the immediate vicinity of its borders.
– What is Iran’s position in the region today?
– Iran strives to maintain the position of an influential and balancing actor in the South Caucasus, considering the region as an important and key component of its own national security atmosphere. For Tehran, the South Caucasus has long ceased to be only a neighboring region. it has become an important component of Iran’s northern security zone, where the ongoing geopolitical changes have a direct impact on the country’s strategic interests.
Especially in recent years, Iran has consistently emphasized the immutability of internationally recognized borders in the region and the need to exclude the political, military and security involvement of extra-regional forces in regional processes.
After the 40-day war, Iran’s position has gained a clearer security character. Tehran is watching with concern the deepening of the military-political cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan, the growing presence and influence of Israel in Azerbaijan, as well as the steps taken by the current authorities of Armenia towards the eastern change of Armenia’s foreign policy.
According to Iran, the formation of a possible new balance of power in the region should not lead to a situation where anti-Iranian security systems will be formed in the immediate vicinity of its northern borders or the influence of competing actors will be strengthened.
At the same time, Iran is trying to act in the South Caucasus not only as a security, but also as a transport and economic actor.
One of Tehran’s strategic priorities is the development of the North-South international transport corridor and ensuring its own participation in regional communication projects.
In this context, Iran is interested in communication solutions that will not change regional borders or balance of power and will not reduce Iran’s transit importance.
In general, Iran’s current positioning in the South Caucasus can be characterized as an “active defense strategy”. Tehran strives to prevent unfavorable geopolitical changes, to maintain the balance of power in the region, and at the same time to strengthen its own economic and transport role. For this reason, the South Caucasus continues to be considered not a secondary direction in Iran’s foreign policy, but a key area of national security and regional influence.
– What picture do we have of Iran-Azerbaijan, Iran-Turkey relations now?
– Iran-Azerbaijan relations are currently in a complex and tense balance phase, where both the need for cooperation and the deepening strategic mistrust are combined. From Tehran’s point of view, the developments in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy in recent years, especially the high-level strategic relations with Israel and the expanding security and military cooperation, are seen as a direct challenge to Iran’s northwestern security zone.
The experience of the 40-day war only reinforced these concerns, showing that regional conflicts can quickly involve external actors and create a chain of new threats in the immediate vicinity of Iran’s borders.
At the same time, Iran is trying to avoid an open military or political escalation with Azerbaijan, taking into account economic, energy and transportation interdependencies. In such a context, Iran’s position is simultaneously tough in security matters, but cautious in terms of maintaining business relations.
Iran-Turkey relations have a relatively more stable and systematic nature, but here too there is strategic competition. Both countries are trying to expand their influence in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, often with different approaches.
Turkey is more active in the use of military and allied instruments, while Iran prefers the methods of deterrence, balancing and multilateral diplomacy. Despite this rivalry, the two sides maintain high-level economic ties and common interests in the energy and trade sectors, which prevents relations from turning into open conflict.
The experience of the 40-day war also affected perceptions here. Iran has more clearly begun to consider Turkey as a regional power, whose actions can quickly change the balance of power, while Turkey, in turn, is wary of expanding Iran’s direct or indirect influence in the border zones. Thus, Iran-Turkey relations can be characterized as “managed competition”, where cooperation and competition coexist.
In general, the prevailing logic in both Iran-Azerbaijan and Iran-Turkey relations is not open conflict, but balancing due to strategic calculations. But any new regional escalation can quickly change this balance, especially if it involves the involvement of external forces, the reshaping of communication channels or the formation of new security architectures.
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