Is the conflict exhausted

Unique conditions for the full establishment of relations between the countries — this is how the current period in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict can be characterized. The confrontation which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union has completely changed its logic over the past three years. The basis of the conflict between Yerevan and Baku was Nagorno-Karabakh. But in September 2023, Azerbaijan used military force and established full control over this territory.

Official Yerevan in fact did not object to this development of events and limited itself to restrained statements. Moreover, the Armenian authorities are ready to document the status of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan. In this case, can the conflict be considered exhausted? At the moment, it seems that this is not enough for Azerbaijan to make a final peace.

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The 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh not only disrupted the status quo, but also led to large-scale and, importantly, rapid transformations in the South Caucasus region. The state of affairs has changed not only on the ground but also in the negotiation process. Against the background of the worsening Ukrainian crisis, the mediating countries began to compete for the status of the main moderator of the Yerevan-Baku negotiations.

At some point, the West began to succeed in this struggle. Personal contacts between the heads of the two countries moved to Western platforms. During these meetings, the Azerbaijani side achieved an important result — Armenia’s agreement to officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

European mediators even managed to develop a document that the leaders of the two countries were to sign in Spain in 2023, which stipulates mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of the parties to the conflict within internationally recognized borders. But the President of Azerbaijan did not fly to Granada. The Armenian Prime Minister not only came to the meeting with European partners, but signed the statement.

Armenia recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but received nothing in return. Now there is no Nagorno-Karabakh at all in the negotiation process.

Although Armenia says that the issue is not closed and the Armenian population should return to their homes, but these statements are rather intended for an internal audience. Yerevan is simply unable to put the NK issue back on the international agenda. At least, not yet.

After Azerbaijan managed to remove Nagorno-Karabakh from the negotiation process, the bilateral agenda focused on other issues. The most important are the demarcation and delimitation of the border and the unblocking of transportation communications. The issue of enclaves has been raised more and more often recently.

The main goal of the negotiations is to sign a peace treaty, which should put an end to the confrontation between the two states. But only Azerbaijan, having received everything it needed on the Western platforms, no longer accepts the invitations of Brussels and Washington to come and continue negotiations.

Instead Baku’s position is tilted towards Russia. And this does not suit Armenia, whose authorities have been boycotting events under the auspices of the CSTO and other Russian integration structures for a long time.

The Armenian Prime Minister himself has also refused several times to participate in summits with the participation of the leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev in this regard said Armenia’s “destructive position” was particularly due to Nikol Pashinyan’s decision not to participate in the CIS summit in Bishkek:

“We perceive with gratitude Russia’s mediation in the normalization of relations with Armenia. Russia is our neighbor and ally, as well as Armenia’s ally. It takes 6 hours for the Armenian Prime Minister to fly to Granada, participate in an incomprehensible meeting there, where Azerbaijan without Azerbaijan is discussed. And he cannot fly 2-3 hours to Bishkek, he has important business.”

Baku went further and declared the policy of the United States in the region unilateral. Aliyev defiantly refused to receive the US State Department’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations, Louis Bono.

The reason for the deterioration of relations was the cancelation of visits of Azerbaijani representatives to the United States. The State Department explained this by the lack of progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan. The United States also suspended military aid to Azerbaijan.

However, attempts by Washington and Brussels to put pressure on Baku at the level of statements have not yielded results. Ilham Aliyev enjoys the full support of Turkey, as well as Russia, feels quite confident and intends to get the most out of the current situation.

For more than a year now, expert circles have been discussing whether Azerbaijan will be satisfied with Karabakh or continue escalation on the border with Armenia. In recent months, both sides have claimed progress in negotiations and convergence of positions on some disputed points.

This inspired at least some optimism, giving the impression that Aliyev had chosen a peaceful outcome.

But now the Azerbaijani president is essentially back to square one:

“The process of building our army will continue. Armenia should know that no matter how many weapons it buys, no matter how it is supported, any source of threat to us will be immediately destroyed. I am not hiding this, so that tomorrow no one will say that something unexpected has happened.”

In recent statements, the Azerbaijani leader also mentioned the “Zangezur corridor” and the process of delimitation of the state border.

Since the 2020 war, there has been a fierce dispute between the sides over approaches to unblocking transport communications. Azerbaijan insists on an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia to Nakhichevan. Yerevan wants to control all transit routes through its territory.

This is also acceptable to Western partners, and at some point it seemed that Azerbaijan had gotten used to this approach. However, Aliyev again said that if his country does not get the so-called “Zangezur corridor”, the blockade of Armenia will continue:

“If the route I named is not opened, we do not intend to open our border with Armenia in any other place. Cargo and people must pass from one part of Azerbaijan to another without any checks.”

This and other statements by the Azerbaijani leader provoked a strong response in Armenia. Official Yerevan again had to explain to Baku in restrained, diplomatic language that the provision of a “corridor” is excluded, Armenia intends to control the roads passing through its sovereign territory.

“They are trying to reintroduce corridor logic, which we categorically reject. On the corridor issue, they refer to the statement of November 9 [whose signing stopped the war in Karabakh in 2020]. But the two signatories of the document [Russia and Azerbaijan] demonstrated from the moment of signing until the September 2023 events that there is no such document for them. And there is also no mention of a corridor in the November 9 statement,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.

He recalled that the same document stipulates guarantees for the unimpeded functioning of the Lachin corridor, the only road linking NK with Armenia, and for the safety of the Armenian population. But after the September 2023 one-day war and the exodus of the Armenian population from Karabakh, the trilateral statement finally lost its meaning and any legal force.

The process of delimitation and demarcation of the state border also poses serious risks for Yerevan. The Armenian authorities insist that Soviet maps from the 1970s should serve as the basis for this process. They most accurately define the state of affairs at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

At one point it seemed that the sides had managed to agree on this issue. But in the same interview with Aliyev it became clear that there is no change here either:

“Armenia’s proposal to delimit the border on the basis of maps from the 1970s is unacceptable. Either the period of the establishment of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic or the period of Sovietization should be taken as a reference point.”

Azerbaijan has recently been increasingly talking about the need to sign a peace treaty without specifying the principles on which the process of delimitation and demarcation of the border will be conducted. Yerevan views such statements as an attempt to make new territorial claims against Armenia.

“The point of the delimitation process is not to create a new border, as these borders have already been fixed by the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, according to which the existing administrative borders between Soviet states became state borders. Our delimitation commissions should reproduce these borders, they should be reproduced on the ground, on maps and papers. Azerbaijan is trying to form territorial claims against Armenia, which is absolutely unacceptable,” Pashinyan said in response.

It is premature to say that the latest statements from Baku indicate a final decision to go for confrontation. In this regard, Aliyev still has room for maneuvering.

But the Azerbaijani leader’s messages suggest that Baku’s confrontation with Yerevan will continue and it is not worth expecting the signing of a peace treaty in the near future.

However, even if some paper is signed, it will not be a guarantee of peace if Armenia agrees to sign it without specifying the principles of delimitation. Political scientist Stepan Danielyan believes so:

“In such a scenario, it will be a treaty on a future war or on Armenia’s surrender. Azerbaijan refuses to recognize Armenia’s territorial integrity. All the points that should be in the peace treaty are being promoted by Baku. Azerbaijan is preparing for another aggression, and Turkey is behind it.”

Developments in the South Caucasus region will be largely determined by the international situation. The attention of mediators, primarily Washington, is focused on the ongoing crisis in the Gaza Strip and around Ukraine. Given this and the expected presidential elections in the United States, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan seems quite probable.

https://jam-news.net/is-the-conflict-exhausted/

On severing ties with Russia

“Russia wants to project in Syunik [Armenia’s southern region bordering Azerbaijan] the logic of a corridor. They say if you don’t want to be taken away by force [the road meant to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan], give it away voluntarily,” Armenian political scientist Gurgen Simonyan said, commenting on the Russian Foreign Minister’s statements.

Although Sergey Lavrov said yesterday that there is no clause about the so-called “Zangezur corridor” in the November 9 trilateral statement, Simonyan claims that Moscow is determined to take possession of this road. What the Russian side calls control of the road, in his opinion, is actually a demand for an extraterritorial corridor. At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that there cannot be any “X-space where the laws of the country do not apply” on Armenia’s sovereign territory.

The political analyst commented both on Lavrov’s recent statements concerning Armenia and expressed his opinion on Armenian-Russian relations and cooperation with the West.

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Sergey Lavrov said during a press conference on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s activities in 2023 that the “Zangezur corridor” was never discussed within the framework of the agreements reached on November 9, 2020.

According to him, all economic and transportation ties will be unblocked according to this document, which ended the 2020 Karabakh war. Armenia will guarantee the security of transport in both directions between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, and the border service of the Federal Security Service of Russia will exercise control on that road. He emphasized that Armenia’s sovereignty and jurisdiction on these routes will be fully preserved.

Lavrov also said that the West does not want to allow the implementation of the agreements reached between Yerevan and Baku through Moscow’s mediation. According to him, the lack of progress in the conclusion of the peace treaty is due to the position of Yerevan, while Baku is ready to sign the agreement on the territory of the Russian Federation.

The analyst argues that only Armenia has “naively and shortsightedly” fulfilled all points of the obligations stipulated under the November 2020 trilateral statement, while Moscow and Baku have not fulfilled a single one:

“If they raise the issue of unblocking the roads in Syunik, then let them ensure the security of the Lachin corridor [was stipulated under the trilateral statement], provide an appropriate atmosphere and conditions for the return of Artsakh Armenians to the homeland of their ancestors.”

The political analyst regards any demands from the Russian side, which has not fulfilled its obligations, as “rhetoric with hostile overtones”. He believes that Armenia should take Russia’s statements as a threat and pursue a policy of reducing the risks arising from them.

In the political analyst’s opinion, Yerevan should be very clear about the situation on the ground.

“It should be said that it was you who annulled the November 9 document, no process envisaged under it has been implemented in the region. And there are no Armenians left in Nagorno Karabakh. But the situation is changed not by statements, but by appropriate policy”.

He also suggested what motives Russia has to control the road connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia. He recalled that Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded large sums from local residents for transportation of goods and people through the Lachin corridor:

“If they control this section of the road, the money that was supposed to go to the Armenian budget will flow into their pockets.”

“If some force threatens your existence, there is a way to confront it, regardless of its scale. Obviously we cannot confront this powerful country with brute military force. So we have to look for allies,” the political scientist believes.

At the same time, Simonyan says that Armenia can only expect new allies to provide it with the latest technologies, economic and military training, but it should fight on its own.

According to him, the West has failed to prevent the Russians from “saving Artsakh”, but so far it has managed to oppose Russia’s plan to “save” Armenia. If suddenly Russia succeeds, then after such “rescue” the Republic of Armenia will cease to exist and there will be no Armenians left in it, just as there were no Armenians left in Karabakh.

The political scientist made such an appeal to the Armenian authorities. He believes that if Yerevan is able to harmonize its interests with those of friendly countries, it will find allies in their face. However, for that it is necessary to pursue an active policy.

Meanwhile the current government, in his opinion, pursues an “unprincipled and short-sighted” policy, regularly “heading North,” to Russia.

“In addition, Armenia continues to be part of military-political and economic integration projects (the CSTO military bloc and the Eurasian Economic Union), which obviously pursue a hostile policy towards it. The authorities go to the EAEU event and play up the chairmanship of this organization [the Prime Minister recently accepted Armenia’s chairmanship of the EAEU], but do not participate in the economic forum in Davos, where the future of the world is being discussed. These people do not react to the realities facing Armenia due to external and internal challenges, they are in some illusory world.’

The political analyst believes that Yerevan should start strategic relations with the European Union, as well as with the North Atlantic security system, as Armenia’s ally in the region is the West. And Russia, according to him, has staked on the Turkic world.

He does not rule out that in the near future Azerbaijan will join the structures operating under the aegis of Russia, e.g. EAEU and CSTO. He says it is still unclear what Baku will get in return for this integration.

“If this scenario is played out, we must fight and defend our territories [in Syunik] so as not to lose our strategic importance, our connection with Iran. If we lose our territory but keep our independence, we will lose our independence after some time because we will not be interesting to the world.”