Azeri leader, OSCE mission head discuss ties
525 Qazet, Baku
24 Jul 04
Text of unattributed report by Azerbaijani newspaper 525 Qazet on 24
July headlined “Azerbaijan will continue its integration into the
European family, President Aliyev tells the head of the OSCE’s Baku
office”
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received Maurizio Pavesi, head of
the OSCE mission in Baku, on 23 July. Aliyev said that Azerbaijan is
an active member of the OSCE and is constantly taking part in the
organization’s events. Azerbaijan attaches great significance to
cooperation with the OSCE, he said.
Talking about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy
Karabakh, Aliyev noted that the OSCE Minsk Group’s efforts to resolve
the conflict have yielded no results yet. He stressed the importance
of settling the conflict in line with international legal norms and
principles.
As for the country’s ties with international organizations, Aliyev
said that over the three years of its membership of the Council of
Europe, Azerbaijan has fulfilled all its commitments before the
organization. Azerbaijan will continue its integration into the
European structures and the European family.
In turn, Maurizio Pavesi said that the OSCE is keeping to the
principles of cooperation in Europe and that cooperation between
Azerbaijan and the OSCE is successfully developing. He voiced his
confidence that cooperation will continue in the future and said that
he will work to strengthen the OSCE’s ties with Azerbaijan.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Italian daily: Turkey links Airbus order to country’s EU membership quest
Il Sole 24 Ore, Milan
23 Jul 04
Text of editorial: “A closer Turkey”, published by Italian newspaper
Il Sole 24 Ore on 23 July
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan is a politician who is
capable of looking very far ahead. The Ankara prime minister, a
moderate Muslim leading a single-party government which has achieved a
number of successes in the economic sphere to date by giving a fresh
boost to growth and by slashing inflation, knows that his country’s
future is going to have to include membership of the European Union.
Erdogan also knows full well that in order to achieve that target, it
will be necessary to be patient and to wait a few decades. In the
short term, on the other hand, Ankara is looking at a far closer
deadline, namely 17 December when the Commission and the Council,
under the Netherlands duty presidency, will be deciding whether or not
to set in motion negotiations for Turkey’s membership of the European
Union. Beginning negotiations does not mean joining, but it would be
an important start and a diplomatic success for Ankara.
Erdogan has realized that to join Europe he is going to have to win
over France, which has so far been the main opponent of the Islamic
country’s entering into European negotiations. That is why, in the
course of a recent three-day visit to Paris, the Turkish prime
minister met all of the country’s highest authorities, from the Elysee
Palace [president’s official residence], to Matignon [prime minister’s
office], the speakers of both houses of parliament, the leaders of the
Socialist opposition and businesspeople. These contacts were intended
to illustrate the progress the country has made in terms of respect
for human rights and bringing itself into line with the criteria set
for joining the EU.
In the course of his French mission the Turkish prime minister won
President Jacques Chirac’s personal support, the friendship of Prime
Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin and the approval of [French Socialist
Party leader] Francois Hollande’s Socialists (although they linked
their approval to recognition of the Armenian genocide), but he also
attracted the outspoken opposition of the UDF [Union for French
Democracy] and the UMP [governing Union for a Popular Movement,
President Chirac’s party], the two centre Right parties, and of
grassroots opinion. So in order to overcome these final barriers
Erdogan played the business card, signing a massive contract for the
purchase of 36 Airbus planes from the French-German consortium. It is
a ticket that cost him 2bn euros, but it might well be worth an option
on membership of Europe.

I was there… The day the Melkonian was bombed
Cyprus Weekly
Friday, July 23, 2004
By Athena Karsera
A man who lived through the bombing of the Melkonian Educational
Institute as a recently graduated pupil was in Nicosia this week to
battle for the school’s survival.
One of Nicosia’s best-known landmarks for over 77 years and the pride
of the region’s Armenian community faces closure.
The 1926 stone building and its surrounding land of 125,000 square
metres is estimated to be worth at least CYP 40 million.
Nightmares
The government has placed a preservation order on the school since May
this year, ruling that “no alteration or construction be executed on
the buildings… considered to be on special architectural/
historical/ social importance.” While this may have temporarily
scuppered plans to sell off the school, its future beyond June 2005
remains uncertain.
Raffi Zinzalian had just graduated from the Melkonian and had a
university place waiting for him in Lebanon when the 1974 troubles
began. He had spent the day before the invasion on the beaches of
Famagusta and was in the school building when the Turkish planes flew
overhead on July 20, 1974.
“We were happy because the cease-fire would begin at 3pm and then at
2.45pm we saw the Turkish jets overhead. We thought they were headed
for the radio station (Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation- CyBC) but they
circled round and we heard a deafening noise, we had been bombed,” he
said.
Zinzalian said that even his years in war-torn Lebanon could not
compare to the fear he felt on that day. Thirty years later, and now a
married father of three, he still has nightmares of the bombing.
“The roof in the dormitories was about to cave in and we couldn’t
breath. We knew we had to escape, the roof was on fire and so we ran
outside to the principal’s residence. The fire brigade was called, but
the roof had collapsed,” Zinzalian said.
The students and teachers left at the Melkonian made for the
mountains. Turkish troops had surrounded Nicosia and the only way out
was on the road to Larnaca. For 6-7 weeks communication and travel was
almost impossible and Zinzalian was able to leave the island on a
Soviet cargo ship to take up his place in Lebanon. “Two years later,
the war started there,” he said.
Following his studies, Zinzalian was employed at the Press Information
Office (PIO) as a Turkish-English translator. “I saw
+AFs-then-President, Archbishop+AF0- Makarios everyday,” he said.
Archives
Zinzalian then left for the USA to study photo journalism and media
and is now a publisher at the University of LaVerne Press and on the
board of Armenia International Magazine (AIM). He is also the
president of the Melkonian Alumni and Friends in California.
“We are all very sad that the school may be closed. All the alumni I
have spoken to, in LA, in Ontario, in Cyprus, in Greece, in Lebanon,
in Turkey, all feel the same,” he said.
Zinzalian has spent the last few weeks on self-financed travels to
lobby members of the alumni. “There are 1300 members of the alumni all
around the world,” he said.
Having had meetings with the Cyprus alumni of the school and
representatives of the Armenian community on the island, Zinzalian
said that the passion for keeping the Melkonian up and running will be
hard to beat.
“We are also looking into the archives of the school because the
Melkonian brothers who founded the school made provisions before they
died for it never to close. Before they died, they put the school in
the care of the Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU),” he said.
The Melkonian Institute was built as an orphanage by Krikor and
Garabed Melkonian soon after the massacres of the Armenians in Turkey.
Zinzalian said that the closing of the school was “totally
unacceptable” not only because of the Melkonian’s important cultural
role and lengthy history, but also for the potential practical
problems faced by the 170 students continuing their studies at the
school following the graduation of a further 30 this past year.
“There are students at the school from all over the world who may not
be able to continue their studies as they have up until now,” he said.
“It seems ironic that the Melkonian school survived bombing and a war
and now is in peril from the people supposed to be protecting it,”
Zinzalian said.
He said that the alumni were prepared to keep up their peaceful fight
for as long as necessary, fund-raising — the California Alumni has
raised over +ACQ-370,000 for the school over the past five years —
and meeting with people able to help the situation. “The Cypriot
government has been very supportive,” he said: “and the Cyprus alumni
is the best we have.”
Zinzalian also said that he believed the AGBU did not expect to have
as large scale a fight on their hands. “I think they expected to sell
off the school and take the money back to the USA without much
reaction.”
He also criticised the AGBU for sending a non-Armenian to manage the
planned closure of the school. US national Gordon Anderson has been
sent to take the place of the school’s headmaster and oversee the
school’s future.
“Feeling the way we do about the school, I feel that closing it will
be impossible,” Zinzalian said.
+AKk- Cyprus Weekly, 2004

PRESS OFFICE
Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern)
630 Second Avenue, New York, NY 10016
Contact: Jake Goshert, Communications Officer
Tel: (212) 686-0710; Fax: (212) 779-3558
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:
July 23, 2004
___________________
Week of July 16 to July 23, 2004
* * *
ARARAT CENTER CONSECRATION, OPEN HOUSE TOMORROW
Tomorrow (7/24) more than 600 people will be at the Diocese’s new Ararat
Center in Greenville, NY, for the official opening and consecration of
the 65-acre site.
The Ararat Center is located at 6944 SR 32 in Greenville, NY, 12083 (30
miles south of Albany, NY).
The event is free of charge; the fun runs from noon to 5 p.m. — rain or
shine. The consecration by Archbishop Khajag Barsamian, Primate, will
take place at 2 p.m.
If you’re coming, please bring your lawn chairs or blanket to sit on.
If you can’t make it, don’t worry. We’ll have photos and text about the
open house on our website on Monday (7/26).
(Source: Ararat Center, 7/23/04)
* * *
ARMENIAN CHURCH MAGAZINE VISITS ARARAT CENTER
The next issue of The Armenian Church magazine is being mailed out over
the next few days. Look in your mailbox in the coming weeks for your
copy, which visits the Diocese’s new Ararat Center and reports from the
2004 Diocesan Assembly hosted by the St. Gregory the Enlightener Church
of White Plains, NY.
You can read this issue of the magazine early by going online to our
website:
If you don’t have your free subscription to the magazine, click to the
website to sign up:
(Source: Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), 7/22/04)
* * *
PRIMATE VISITS WITH ASSEMBLY INTERNS
The Primate last night (7/22) was in Washington, D.C., where he met with
the Armenian Assembly summer internship program participants. He talked
with the students, answering questions about the Armenian heritage and
faith. The Primate met last week in New York City with the participants
in the summer internship program run by the Armenian General Benevolent
Union.
(Source: Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), 7/23/04)
* * *
SEEING THE LIGHT OF OUR FAITH
The Diocese will host a one-week seminar at the Diocesan Center in New
York City starting Sunday (7/25) and running through Sunday, August 1.
The focus of the seminar, titled “Light of Light: The Armenian and His
Faith”, is a study of various aspects of the Armenian Christian
tradition lead by prominent academics. For more on this, and events
throughout the Diocese, click to our website’s Calendar of Events:
If your parish has an activity you want listed on our website, e-mail
the details to [email protected].
(Source: Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), 7/22/04)
* * *
ST. VARTAN CAMP WRAPPING UP, HYE CAMP GEARING UP
Saturday (7/24) is the last day of St. Vartan Camp’s inaugural year at
the Diocese’s new Ararat Center. For new pictures and updates from the
campers, click to our website:
Midwest Hye Camp starts in just one week, on August 1. You can still
sign your child up for the one-week camp on-line. Just click today to:
(Source: Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), 7/23/04)
* * *
ST. NERSESS SUMMER PROGRAMS CONTINUE
The St. Nersess Armenian Seminary summer programs are continuing to grow
in popularity. Archbishop Barsamian visited with participants in the
two high school sessions already held on July 12 and 20. The Primate
will make other visits during the upcoming sessions as well. For more on
these sessions, click to the St. Nersess Seminary website:
(Source: Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern), 7/23/04)
# # #

PRESS RELEASE
July 23, 2004
American University of Armenia Corporation
300 Lakeside Drive, 4th Floor
Oakland, CA 94612
Telephone: (510) 987-9452
Fax: (510) 208-3576
Contact: Gohar Momjian
E-mail: [email protected]
State Department Supports AUA Initiatives
Oakland, CA – American University of Armenia (AUA) President, Dr. Haroutune
Armenian, announced that on July 19, 2004, the United States Ambassador to
Armenia, the Honorable John Ordway, provided a grant of $284,000 to AUA to
continue the final phases of the accreditation process, and $51,300 to plan
and develop a regional student recruitment program. The amount of funding
will be used over a two-year period.
AUA is seeking accreditation from the Western Association of Colleges and
Schools (WASC), one of the six regional accrediting associations covering
the United States. AUA began the process several years ago and reached an
historic milestone when it received Candidacy status in the fall of 2002.
This was the first time that WASC had ever considered a university outside
territorial United States. Candidacy status indicates that the institution
has achieved initial recognition and is progressing towards accreditation.
The final phases of the process will culminate in site visits in October
2005 and 2006. The grant provides resources in several critical areas
required for accreditation and which demonstrate institutional capacity.
Research and evaluation of academic programs and various studies on AUA
alumni will be expanded, in addition to updating information systems.
President Armenian noted that the University has been working with the U.S.
Embassy on a number of initiatives critical to Armenia’s and the region’s
development. He stated that, `collaboration and cooperation among Armenia’s
institutions remains the key to overall success and that the confidence the
Embassy and Ambassador have in the University speaks to the pivotal role AUA
has in transforming a country where everyone enjoys the benefits of
democratic institutions and free markets.’ Armenian also expressed his
appreciation to the Congress of the United States for its continued support
of University efforts. `The Armenian Caucus co-chairmen, Congressman
Knollenberg and Congressman Pallone are especially supportive and recognize
the link between education and economic progress. Senator Sarbanes, member
of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Senator McConnell, Chairman
of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations,
particularly continue to encourage AUA to achieve new heights,’ Armenian
stated.
AUA Vice-President for Government Relations and Special Projects, Dr. Steve
Maradian, will take the lead in the international recruitment effort.
`Historically, the University enrolls 5-10 students from the region,’ stated
Maradian. `This program will allow for expansion of enrollment while
strengthening the academic programs. Most agree that the region is served
best when people work together, understand each other’s cultures and values,
and share common goals. Higher education is the ideal setting to accomplish
these activities.’ The program is part of a companion effort to increase
diversity in the classroom. The University is seeking student housing to
support this project with the goal of creating learning communities in which
students study, work, and live together.
`AUA has an important role in Armenia and the entire Middle East,’ Armenian
noted, `including regional stability and cooperation. Accreditation will
encourage students’ interest from the region and the Diaspora to come to
Armenia, earn a graduate degree, and form lifelong linkages to Armenians and
Armenia’s institutions. Nothing is more important for the University at
this stage of its development.’
——–
The American University of Armenia is registered as a non-profit educational
organization in both Armenia and the United States and is affiliated with
the Regents of the University of California. Receiving major support from
the AGBU, AUA offers instruction leading to the Masters Degree in eight
graduate programs. For more information about AUA, visit or
Picture: L to R: Kimberly Hargan, Public Affairs Officer, US Embassy; Dr.
Haroutune Armenian, AUA President; Ambassador John Ordway; Dr. Michael
Thompson, AUA Acting Vice-President; Dr. Steve Maradian, AUA Vice-President
for Government Relations and Special Projects.

Interfax
July 23 2004
Armenia’s GDP expands 9.1% in H1
Yerevan. (Interfax) – Armenia’s gross domestic product expanded 9.1%
to 500.036 billion dram year-on-year in the first half of 2004, the
National Statistics Service told Interfax.
Industrial output reached 242.768 billion dram, up 4.5% year-on-
year.
Armenia’s trade turnover for the six months was up 4.9% to over 539
billion dram ($965 million). Exports came to 190.8 billion dram ($340
million) and imports to 348.5 billion dram ($625.1 million), for a
trade deficit of 157.7 billion dram ($285.1 million).
The country’s trade turnover increased 30.5% in 2003 to $1.948
billion. Exports increased 34.2% to $678.1 million and imports 28.6%
to $1.269 billion, for a trade deficit of $591.3 million ($535.4
million in 2002).
The official exchange rate for July 22: 515.99 dram/$1.

Interfax
July 23 2004
American ambassador upbeat on Armenian-U.S. cooperation
Yerevan. (Interfax) – U.S. ambassador to Armenia John Ordway has
expressed optimism over the future of his country’s cooperation with
Armenia.
The quick pace at which relations are developing is the result of the
situation in Armenia and the region as a whole, as well as
international processes, Ordway told a news conference in Yerevan on
Thursday.
The United States plans to continue working with the Armenian
authorities to help them carry out democratic reforms and strengthen
the country’s economy, he said.
The construction in Armenia of the largest U.S. embassy in the world
has proved that Washington views its relations with Yerevan as stable
and long-term, Ordway said.
The U.S. will continue its assistance to the Armenian armed forces,
the ambassador said, adding that Armenia is on the road towards
participation in the peacekeeping operation in Iraq.
Commenting on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ordway said the time has
come for the conflict to be resolved. Resuming hostilities would have
a devastating impact on Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the entire
region, he said. The ambassador expressed hopes that the conflict
will be settled within the next few years.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Baku Today, Azerbaijan
July 23 2004
Cease-fire Breached Again, Defense Ministry Says
Armenian troops breached the 1994 cease-fire agreement by firing at
Azerbaijan’s army positions along the north section of the frontline
on July 21, press office of the Ministry of Defense said.
According to the press office, Armenian troops located in Berkaber
village of this country’s Icevan District shot at the Azeri positions
in Qizilhacili village of the northwestern Qazakh District for about
an hour.
Azerbaijani troops retaliated Armenians and there are no casualties
on the Azeri side, the press office added.

The Messenger, Georgia
July 23 2004
Zurabishvili meets president of Armenia
After meeting with Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili in
Yerevan Thursday, the president of Armenia Robert Kocharian declared
Yerevan’s interest in Georgian stability, Mediamax reports.
According to the Armenian president’s press service, Kocharian and
Zurabishvili discussed Armenian-Georgian relations and the prospects
of development of the South Caucasian region.
Pointing at that the two countries’ actual economic relations fall
short of both the potential and aspirations of Armenia and Georgia,
Kocharian underlined the necessity of the two governments’ working
together to further economic cooperation.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Kavkaz Center, Turkey
July 23 2004
Caucasus crossword puzzle

Even if you assume that it is a major turf war going on in the
Caucasus, America could not allow another evident failure happening
after the fiasco in Iraq. It is always more costly to be fighting
with an Islamic nation directly. And even though America is more
successful in Hollywood studios, it is still good at making troubles
and intrigues in the so-called third world countries.
Russians have it the other way around. There’s plenty of cannon
fodder, and you can send them wherever you want. And the whole
political ruse is in the number of that cannon fodder and in the
number of tanks per square unit.
But it doesn’t mean at all that the two tactics described above have
collided in the Caucasus. Evident failure in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, which Georgian President Saakashvili is asking for, as the
ordinary citizens believe, is not too obvious unless you take a
little closer look at the logic of the events.
Everybody knows whose protege he is. He was supplied with whatever
necessary in such cases: with money, with military instructors, with
political instructions and with PR through mass media. European
political staff was attached to him so that he could not deviate from
the instructions (and a European wife was found even before that).
While consistently paving the way for their protege, the West is
getting the public opinion trained at the same time. Everybody must
know that once the West patronizes some puppet, then the success is
guaranteed.
Foolish behavior of the so-called «leaders of the Caucasus nations»
looks deplorable in the middle of all of this. They do not have much
of a choice, and the alignment is downright simple. If you do not
want to be dependent on anyone, and if FREEDOM is not a mere empty
word for you, then you should become like first Chechen President
Dudayev, raise a flag with the slogan ‘freedom or death’ and go
ahead. But if you don’t have the guts to defend real independence,
then you should still have enough brains to choose a normal
‘sponsor’.
You have to be ignorant about history and very naïve in politics to
believe in reliability of Russian guardianship. But if they seriously
believe the Kremlin’s today’s leadership, that’s when one must assume
that there is some clinical problem involved.
It is understandable when leaders of South Ossetia or Abkhazia cringe
before Putin. They are the ones who belong to the category of
mentally sick persons mentioned above. But political shortsightedness
of Aslan Abashidze, former leader of breakaway region of Adjaria, was
totally unexpected. A man of noble descent, whose ancestors have
always been in the head of the fight of freedom of Adjaria, a pretty
smart man, all of a sudden believed that Putin would never betray
him. Couldn’t he see it from the record of the Kremlin’s outhouse
‘dumper’?
He ‘dumped’ Castro, he turned in Milosevic and Saddam, and he would
be more than happy to turn in the North Korean leader, but Kim Jong
Il is lucky enough not to depend on Moscow or hope for Moscow. Putin
gave up Central Asia without making too much of a noise. He is giving
up Transdniestria just as quietly too. But why was he not supposed to
give up Adjaria? Just because some Moscow bureaucrats built villas
for themselves down there?
Only after he escaped to Moscow (what a place to escape!), Abashidze
all of a sudden got politically enlightened: turns out Russia has
never had any policies on the Caucasus (!). And now he probably
understands that it would have been much easier to come to an
agreement with Georgian president Saakashvili (who is Georgian of
Armenian descent), rather than allying with those who «do not have
their policies on the Caucasus».
Today’s escalation of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict is a fuss at a
lower level so far. They are pushing one another, they are making
noises, and they excel in little dirty tricks that they do to one
another. Nobody wants to be fighting a war. Fighters for ‘national
independence’ are writing slavish addresses to be accepted back into
the stall of serfs. As far as Russian chauvinist marginals go, they
are smacking their lips when anticipating the coming ‘gathering of
lands’. Their calls are heard in the Russian State Duma (parliament)
«not to be shy and go ahead and join them to us». Many even think
that the Politburo of the past has now reappeared in the Kremlin,
only on a much smaller scale. But today’s dwellers of the Kremlin
have only the ‘not-to-be-shy’ thing left from Politburo of the past.
But their ability to ‘join’ (by force), or ability to ‘retain’ will
never be restored ever again.
To the majority, which is doomed to be constantly deluded, it seems
like there is confrontation between Russian the West going on in the
Caucasus. Although, there are quite a few of those who can guess that
it is a transfer of the Caucasus region to the Western curators going
on in a private manner. But at the same time the ringleaders of
worldwide political mafia have to consider the views of the majority
and this is why it is happening under the guise of fight for areas of
influence.
This kind of concert does not always go smoothly, since you can’t get
all of the idiots initiated into its real goal. You can tell the ones
which ones are ‘initiated’ and which are not from the things that
they say. Georgian Prime Minister Zhvania is one of the ‘initiated’.
He can hardly hold his emotions inside and he reminds that you can’t
jeopardize the agreement between Putin and Saakashvili or the life of
Ossetian and Georgian nations «because of just one idiot». Everybody
understands that South Ossetian leader Kokoity is that ‘one idiot’.
Zhvania is also showing his excessive Armenian caution by not
pointing his finger at the idiot number two, Russian general the
‘peacemaker’. As soon as something went a little wrong against the
scenario, Saakashvili’s nerves began to give. He started panicking
and he came running to his European mother-in-law to complain about
Putin.
That’s where he was probably clamed down and asked not to worry. He
was probably explained what the principles of the dog’s vertical
hierarchy was and that today Putin is the eighth sprocket for G7. He
had to hear that this is what the Western politics is based upon, so
that the delusion of the majority and excessive activities of idiots
could be used to your own advantage. And he was told that you can’t
take the delusion away from the majority right off the bat and you
can’t be counting on the same idiots over and over again.
After little specifications made backstage, after the trips of
resented Saakashvili to England and after sudden arrival of ‘buddy’
Schroeder, Putin organizes an interesting meeting, where the entire
diplomatic corps was invited. They say it was the second case like
that ever since the times of Red Commissars. Back then the situation
was critical. Bolsheviks kept throwing in the slogan ‘Revolution in
Danger!’ But what about today? Supposedly, there was a good reason
why all ambassadors from all countries were gathered.
Russian media quoted Putin’s key phrase, which at first sounds
somewhat contradictory. He proposes to attach a number one priority
to the diplomatic activities in CIS states, and then all of a sudden
he says that one shouldn’t think that Russia is the only country that
has the right to be a leader in these states. Like, we must consider
the reality.
It was probably all clear to those in the auditorium. But we won’t be
able to figure it out that quick. What is it? Aesopian language or
accidental slip of the tongue? If some group of countries is the
number one priority for diplomatic activities, then maximum
strengthening of influence is usually the goal. But if you agree to
the leadership of other countries in the region, then what’s the
point of the ‘prioritized activities’?
It doesn’t sound too clear to ordinary people. But if the G7 pointed
to Putin to quietly move over from that ‘prioritized’ CIS and prepare
a place for someone else, then everything is falling into place and
there is no discrepancy at all. Replacing one leader, even a bad one,
for another, even a good one, is a painful and not easy process. And
this is where prioritized diplomacy is necessary in order to lull the
majority and not to get the ‘uninitiated idiots’ excited before their
time.
But let’s leave the interesting gathering of Russian diplomats behind
and let’s go back to South Ossetia. Let’s imagine a fantastic
situation: Georgia and South Ossetia are left face to face to deal
with each other. Georgia would have never been able to restore its
influence in this part of the Caucasus by using its own power. Even
if this whole thing lasted until the second coming of Christ.
Moreover, if Georgia calls its new patrons for help and South Ossetia
remains without the support from Moscow (with the condition that
Moscow will not be doing nasty things and will not block the Cross
Mountain Pass), then Georgia’s chances would still not have been
increased too much. And only when Saakashvili starts enjoying full
support from his new masters, and when Westernized part of the
population will be strengthened in Ossetia, that’s when the Kremlin
will take its weaponry away and choke Ossetia in a perfidious way
from behind, — and only then South Ossetia will be integrated into
Georgia. And the Kremlin’s perfidy will be the main and determining
condition here. Georgian patchwork quilt cannot be put together
without it.
The political concert is gathering momentum. While this article is
being written, Georgian-Ossetian negotiations are going in full swing
in Moscow. Mass media are squeezing the adrenaline from ordinary
citizens: like, negotiations are going on in «hard… and difficult
conditions, but still…». So far the Georgian side made a proposal «to
disarm unnecessary formations in the conflict zone». The Kremlin’s
‘dumpers’ must treat it with understanding, and then the nature will
take its course…
In this kind of shows somebody has to be made a fool. South Ossetian
leader Kokoity is most fit for this role. Judging by how talkative
and self-satisfied he is, and judging by his thoughtless actions, he
is not going to let anybody else have this role.
Abkhazia will be next. Its leaders are just like Kokoity. Their
statements are just as strong, and they are counting on Moscow the
same way. And their naïve assurance that they can never be overthrown
is the same as well,… since they all have Russian passports…
It’s not too pleasant to be making any predictions. We were just
trying to be guided by the main political tendencies and the logic of
the events. In this temporal world plans and predictions that the
people are making will be fulfilled only as much as Almighty Allah
decides, praise be to Him, and great He is.
Saad Minkailov, Jokhar, CRI.
For Kavkaz-Center