Ukrainian opposition figure calls for reconciliation between rival supporters
Ukrayina TV, Donetsk
29 Dec 04

Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko’s key ally Yuliya
Tymoshenko has made an unprecedented appearance in a live Q&A session
on Ukrayina TV, a regional channel based in Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych’s home town of Donetsk and owned by his allies. The channel
has been campaigning hard for Yanukovych and is bitterly critical of
Yushchenko. Tymoshenko, wearing an orange T-shirt of the local
football club Shakhtar Donetsk, reiterated throughout the programme
calls for reconciliation between supporters of rival presidential
candidates, and sought to refute the anti-Donetsk statements
attributed to her by her opponents. She defended her own and
Yushchenko’s record in government and opposition and pledged that the
Yushchenko administration would never discriminate against Donetsk or
the Russian-speaking regions. Tymoshenko attacked the administration
of President Leonid Kuchma and voiced her strong opposition to the
idea of federalizing Ukraine. She said the opposition should be given
wide powers in order to keep the government in check, and spoke about
the importance of freedom of speech. The following is an excerpt from
Tymoshenko’s Q&A on 29 December; subheadings inserted editorially:
[Presenter] Good evening, this is Ukrayina TV live. In the next hour
and a half, we’ll speak with one of the leaders of the orange
revolution, Yuliya Tymoshenko.
[Tymoshenko] Good evening.
[Presenter] We also welcome to our programme Ukrayina TV journalist
Iryna Markevych.
[Markevych] Good evening.
[Presenter] And of course, the main participants in our programme –
the TV viewers. Thanks to you, this meeting with Yuliya Tymoshenko was
made possible. We received a huge number of calls and there is much
interest in this programme, in the meeting with you. We received
several thousand calls over these two days, not only from Donetsk and
Luhansk but also from Mykolayiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Crimea and many
other cities. Esteemed viewers, you can also call our studio during
the programme and ask your questions. The number is 312-55-35. Now I
hand over to Iryna Markevych.
Denies anti-Donetsk statements
[Markevych] We do have many letters, but first of all we would like to
read this letter signed by a whole neighbourhood. [Reads] Yuliya
Volodymyrivna, before beginning our dialogue, we propose that you
apologize to the people of Donbass for insults you made at the rally
in Kiev and during the orange putsch. It is true, there were many
inappropriate statements at various rallies and in parliament. As a
proof, here is a video clip.
[Passage omitted: Video clip of Tymoshenko saying in parliament that
progovernment MPs can hang themselves on their blue-and-white
scarves.]
[Markevych] Mrs Tymoshenko, what can you say to this after the second
round, are you ready to apologize?
[Tymoshenko, in Ukrainian] I would like to begin not with this clip
but with saying that the emotions always run high during the election
campaign. [Switches into Russian] I think there was much aggression
on both sides, many things that maybe should not be said by
politicians even during the election campaign. I would like to begin
with something different. I will comment on this clip later, no doubt
about it. But you know, when I was coming here, understanding that in
general Donetsk is a wonderful city with wonderful people, but because
of these political tricks it happened so that we are on different
sides of the barricades. When I was coming here, I was thinking about
what can unite us in the first moments after this election turmoil. I
thought you have your favourite football club Shakhtar in Donetsk, and
I am in Donetsk right now. I don’t know any people in Donetsk who are
not fans of Shakhtar. I remember very well when Shakhtar beat
Barcelona and people in Kiev’s Independence Square were just as happy
as when parliament made some political decisions. I thought that this
colour [orange, the colour of Shakhtar shirt and Yushchenko campaign]
unites us despite everything. Right now I am wearing this Shakhtar
shirt that I got as a present from a member of your club. It is your
colour and it is our colour and I want it to stop being the colour of
confrontation. I want peace. As for those statements, this was
probably the only harsh statement during the campaign, but you must
understand that it was addressed to MPs who shouted something
aggressive at me from their seats. You know, parliament is a big
family. We, the MPs, are different, but you know sometimes a mother
can shout at her child and say she would kill him if he does not get
school on time or kill him if he does not eat breakfast. This does not
mean the mother is going to kill her child. It is the same with those
emotions in parliament with orange or blue scarves. It was not
directed at people in any regions of Ukraine. Sometimes in parliament
emotions are running high. But they too subside as parliament’s
sessions end.
[Presenter tries to interrupt]
[Tymoshenko] Concerning this letter, there are other statements which
were disseminated before the third round. These statements did not
belong to me. I want the people who hear me to know that one of the
worst PR tricks before the third tour was when quotes were put
together.
[Presenter, interrupting] I am sorry, we have a caller who wants to
say something on this topic.
[Tymoshenko] Please, let me finish. Irochka, you asked a question from
the people who wrote the letter, and I want to say that these dirty
quotes were written by certain campaign HQs and they pretended that
some politicians said it. I want to tell you that there were many
such quotes. First, that Donetsk and Luhansk should be cordoned off
with barbed wire. Second, to bring Sevastopol to its knees, drown
Odessa in the Black Sea and dismantle the “7th kilometre” marketplace
in Odessa, I can continue with these quotes, but I tell you that I did
not say any of it. I have a different character, a different attitude
to people, I could never say this. For those people who wanted me to
apologize, I want to apologize for everything that I may have said
that may have offended you. But I never said those phrases.
[Presenter] Thank you, your apologies are accepted.
[Passage omitted: Caller says Tymoshenko is not welcome in Donetsk,
people outside the studio shout, a woman asks Tymoshenko why she is
afraid of federalism.]
Against federalism
[Tymoshenko] Now about federalism. You know, we can talk a lot about
some historic details. For example, federalism has never developed in
unitary countries. What is a unitary country? It is a single, united
country without autonomies. Historically, all the federal states
evolved from unions of different lands and territories. But Ukraine as
a unitary state by constitution, a single country, cannot turn the
process backwards, it would be a new historic practice. Besides, if
there are some movements to change border and split the country, it
can be made only though a nationwide referendum. If the people agree,
then we can split. But it cannot be done through declarations by
individual political leaders. One more thing, I was born in
Dnipropetrovsk, I cannot relate to western Ukraine, Lviv and
Ivano-Frankivsk, the same way as to Dnipropetrovsk. Dnipropetrovsk is
my native land. But I do not know a single person who can imagine
Ukraine without Lviv Region, for example or without Donetsk or Kharkiv
or Luhansk. We would all become deficient if we break up our
country. Do we really want part of our nation to suffer the way
[Moldova’s breakaway region] Dniester suffers right now.
[Presenter, interrupting] Mrs Tymoshenko, but Germany has a federal
structure and it is a democratic country.
[Tymoshenko] But Germany began as a union of completely different
territories, and their process was going in the other direction, not
splitting a single country but uniting. I think it will become even
more solid. And here, where we have a great single country, what do we
have to divide? We have nothing to divide. If someone can tell me what
we have to divide, maybe we can discuss it. A split of the country
would not benefit anyone. But if a referendum says so, if someone
holds a referendum on this, if someone living in Ukraine wants to have
a limited territory of our common home, then of course the
constitution must be changed.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko argues that pensions and benefits were
not cut by Yushchenko’s government, says people have the right to
protest.]
Powers to opposition
[Markevych] Mrs Tymoshenko, it is apparent that blockades of
parliament, the presidential administration and the Cabinet of
Ministers are very effective tactics. Ukraine now needs a law on the
opposition, it is obvious that there will be tough opposition to your
authorities. You as a political force, as the leader of your bloc, are
you ready to support a law that would give opposition the legal right
to use your radical methods, such as blocking roads and government
buildings and so on.
[Presenter] Very effective methods.
[Tymoshenko] First of all, if people demand something, it must be
done. We all remember when thousands of coal miners came to Kiev and
blocked the administration and the cabinet and demanded what was
rightly theirs. This was a peaceful strike, but strikes happen all
over the world. I think we need not only a law, but we can do one more
thing. Taking in account that I have been in opposition for nine
years, [smiling] I am ready to open a school for young opposition
activists and lecture there at least twice a week on my experiences of
being in opposition. It will be peaceful, I don’t want opposition in
Ukraine to be persecuted the way myself and my family and my whole
team were thrown in jail. When my child was dragged around
prosecutors’ offices.
[Presenter] This will be another topic for us.
[Tymoshenko] I not only support the law, I would even support making a
special amendment to the constitution on opposition in parliament and
to give opposition the rights that it does not have today – the right
to keep the authorities in check. Because no-one can keep the
authorities in check better than the opposition.
[Presenter] If you come to power, will you let your opposition block
the Cabinet of Ministers, parliament and your administration?
[Tymoshenko] I can say that no-one can ban that. I can say firmly that
if the new authorities work that badly, the people should do what they
see right, but peacefully – strikes, blockades and rallies are methods
of open democracy and I will always support them.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko says the tent city in Kiev was organized
mostly by the people themselves, not by Yushchenko’s HQ, denies claims
that the tent city cost 30m dollars.]
[Tymoshenko] Prior to making these harsh statements and accusing me,
you should watch what these authorities will be doing for at least six
months, who are these people who came to power. No-one knows us,
no-one knows what we offer.
Defends own record
[Presenter, interrupting] Why, people know you very well. You’ve been
in power before, you governed the country, they know you well.
[Tymoshenko] Right, when I governed the country. I want the people to
hear me, please, don’t interrupt me. When I was deputy prime minister
for only eight months, over these eight months I managed to bring over
10bn hryvnyas [1.88bn dollars] from the shadow sector of the energy
complex in Kuchma’s entourage into the state budget. The entire fuel
and energy complex was reconstructed.
[Markevych, interrupting] At the same time, people had no heating in
their homes, right at that time.
[Tymoshenko] Excuse me, before I took office, the people had neither
heating nor electricity. When I left office, every light bulb was
working in the country and every radiator was warm, and there were no
blackouts when I left the government. I left the government not
because I did something bad but because Kuchma’s entourage lost tens
of billions of hryvnyas. And Kuchma, instead of saying at least one
word of thanks for this work, he caved in to his entourage and threw
me straight from the deputy prime minister’s chair to jail, because I
did what the people expected. These persecution that I have been
experiencing for eight years only because I do not want this country
to look the way it does today, believe me, I am not fighting so that
you can say a kind word to me, but because I know what is happening in
politics. I know that today the authorities and business joined in one
ugly conglomerate, and they must be separated. Most of the TV channels
today – Inter, ICTV and One Plus One, who did not speak the truth
before the revolution, the channels belonging to clans in Kuchma’s
entourage, they created this image of criminals and bandits from the
people who can help you. I wanted business, if I wanted to preserve
something I had before 1996, believe me, it is very easy to cut a deal
with Kuchma. But I did not do it because…
[Markevych, interrupting] Mrs Tymoshenko, our programme is supposed to
be dialogue, you are avoiding an answer.
[Tymoshenko] May I finish?
[Markevych] May I ask a question?
[Tymoshenko] In 30 seconds I will finish with this topic. I want to
say that I didn’t want to cut any deals because I see a way to make
change Ukraine, to change your life, and I want you to see it. Do not
jump to conclusions and do not rush with confrontations and insults.
Media freedom important
[Presenter] Thank you for your answer, we now have the K-61 [regional]
studio on the line. Please, K-61, you’re live.
[Studio presenter] We are on air and we continue asking questions,
please.
[Journalist] Good evening, Mrs Tymoshenko, my name is Andriy
Tyutyunnikov, I am a journalist at the Donetskiye Novosti newspaper. I
have the following question. You have talked about politics on
national channels and information wars and made-up quotes. Mr Tomenko
[opposition MP and head of parliamentary committee for freedom of
speech] said he would take to courts those media who provided what he
said was incorrect information. Does it mean introduction of
censorship? Thank you.
[Tymoshenko] Censorship is out of the question. Regardless of who the
owner is, TV stations must simply tell the truth. This will be one of
the first reforms that we want to implement. I am thankful to the
Ukrayina TV for this opportunity. I know this is a hard programme for
everyone, but thank you for doing this and thanks to the owners of
your channel who also provided this opportunity. No matter how hard
this programme is, I think this will be the first step in eliminating
this massive confrontation which had been created artificially.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko presents a heart-shaped toy to presenters
as a sign of good will.]
Attacks Kuchma administration
[Caller] Good evening, this is Mariupol, my name is Lidiya. Mrs
Tymoshenko, I want to ask you personally three question.
[Markevych] Let’s pick only one of those, the most important one,
please.
[Caller] If I could, two questions please. Your actions run counter to
basic civil norms. Mrs Tymoshenko, your team of bandits headed by
impostor Yushchenko has shamelessly stolen the legitimacy of our
President Viktor Yanukovych. You counted on his decency, you are
getting away with it. All the secrets come out eventually.
[Markevych] Thank you, we understand your question.
[Caller] The second question, I want to ask about Lazarenko [fugitive
former prime minister accused of money laundering]. You, Yushchenko
and Lazarenko siphoned our hard-earned money to Cyprus. Your photos
appeared in newspapers on Cyprus with Armenian mafia. Explain please,
what were the circumstances while you present it so cleverly.
[Markevych] Thank you. Very emotional statement.
[Tymoshenko] First of all, everything concerning Interpol. Every
person who has access to the internet go to the Interpol web site and
see that I have never been on any wanted lists. This information is
absolutely false. If I were on a wanted list, we would have to hold
this meeting at some secret hideout and I would wear a long trench
coat, dark glasses and a moustache to make sure no-one recognizes
me. I am not hiding, I am in the streets and on TV. I can say I have
never hidden from anyone and never put my head down. As for Lazarenko,
he was appointed by Kuchma, by the way. In 1997, when I was the first
of all MPs to raise the question in parliament of Kuchma’s
impeachment, after this all my troubles began. Kuchma’s entire team
was trying to erase me from the face of the Earth. You listen to this
information, a political does not need to be killed by a bullet or by
poison, he can be killed by dirty information. A politician who can
help you disappears from your life. As for Lazarenko, not one but tens
of Ukrainian courts closed all the cases against me, my family and my
team. The courts ruled that I never committed any crimes. The same
thing happened in the USA. About 99 per cent of charges against
Lazarenko have been dropped. I am not a judge, I cannot say whether he
did good or bad but I know that all the courts said I had nothing in
common with this man and that I never committed any crimes. What you
heard about me was a campaign against a politician who prevented
Kuchma from fully opening his wings over the territory of Ukraine and
did not let him feel like he owns this Ukraine Ltd. I think time will
prove me right.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko takes a question, reiterates that people
can protest peacefully, block presidential administration, reiterates
that media distorted her and Yushchenko’s image.]
No discrimination against Russian-speakers
I was born in Dnipropetrovsk. So speaking of barricades, I am on the
eastern side. I have lived there all my adult life. I learned to speak
Ukrainian only when I came to the government in 1999. My mother and my
whole family live in Dnipropetrovsk. Believe me, we continue speaking
Russian in our family. I will never take any steps to degrade even
slightly the language that my family uses. The same applies to the
families who speak Ukrainian. One more thing. If you remember, Kuchma
ran in two elections with the motto of making Russian an official
language. And he never did. For two years Viktor Yanukovych was prime
minister but he did not raise this question and did not pass this law
with Kuchma. They did not need it, they were not in the opposition,
they didn’t need to promise, they should have acted. I would like the
people to have open eyes on both sides, be more objective. I know for
sure that if we raise this curtain of propaganda, we shall see many
things as they really are. No matter how hard out relations develop, I
know that the government in which I may work will do even impossible
things for Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and every region in our
country. Everyone will feel it.
[Presenter] Thank you very much.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko reiterates her points on united nation,
media freedom]
[Presenter] Mrs Tymoshenko, there has been a lot of interest in the
foreign media in the election in Ukraine, the three rounds of
elections. About 2,000 foreign correspondents worked in Ukraine, and
many of them worked in Donetsk. They came to our office, asked
questions, talked to us. And a BBC correspondent, Jonathan Charles,
came to our office and shared his impressions and opinions about the
events in Ukraine. Let us listen to what he said.
[Jonathan Charles, in English, overlaid with Russian translation,
translated from Russian] In my view, the situation now is this:
Ukraine has to some extent found itself between a rock and a hard
place, from the point of view of relations between Russia and Western
Europe, which are rather complicated at the moment. And Ukraine is now
like a football. Through Ukraine, the West is trying to tell Russia,
you shouldn’t really think that you will always have your way, there
are some limits, and we will keep you within those limits. So Ukraine
is a ball in this game. I have had time to formulate my point of view,
because I have spent long enough in Ukraine. We have travelled a lot,
and visited different places. The understanding there was from the
very beginning in the West, that there was a revolution in Ukraine,
now I think it was mistaken. The thing is, a revolution is when the
entire people rise up against the government. This is not the
situation in Ukraine. Ukraine as a country is clearly divided. There
are people who support Yanukovych, and there are people who support
Yushchenko. For a country this is not very good, of course. It is a
difficult time for Ukraine, but my personal impression is that most of
the ordinary people we talked to do actually want Ukraine to remain
united.
[Presenter] Jonathan has confirmed some of the points we have
discussed with you. What is your comment on the interview?
[Tymoshenko] First, I am one of those Ukrainians who want Ukraine to
stay united, whatever the circumstances. And Jonathan said the same,
by the way. He said most people want it. Second, I do not want Ukraine
to become an object of kicking on the geopolitical arena. Neither
America, nor Europe or Russia should pursue their own interests on our
territory through some special political projects. I want Ukraine to
become a fully-fledged player on the international arena. I want
Ukraine to turn into a player, a country that has an influence and
which stands up for its interests.
[Passage omitted: Tymoshenko says her faction and most of the
Yushchenko faction voted against troop deployment to Iraq, whereas the
pro-Kuchma and pro-Yanukovych factions backed the move; reiterates her
points against censorship, accepts flowers from the station’s
director.]

`RECOGNITION OF NKR WILL BE CORNERSTONE OF OUR WORK’
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
30 Dec 04
On December 27 the newly appointed minister of foreign affairs of NKR
met with journalists. During the meeting he touched upon the plans of
the foreign ministry for the next year and focused on its three main
directions. `COur plans are mainly determined by the principles of the
recent speech of NKR president Arkady Ghukassian. But I would like to
highlight several important points. First of all, our main direction
in international policies will be the international recognition of the
Republic of Nagorni Karabakh. This will bethe cornerstone of our work
in the political sphere. At the same time all our relationships within
the country and with the international organizations will be
determined by it. The second direction to which I pay personal
attention, is protection of the rights of the citizens of NKR. From my
three years of work experience as the permanent representative of NKR
in Armenia I know there are many painful phenomena. Our citizens are,
in fact, devoid of state support abroad. The problem is not only the
scarce possibilities of our network of representations abroad. The
problem is internal self-organization, cooperation between different
agencies and ministries within the Republic of Nagorni Karabakh. This
comes to say that we must provide an adequate level of such kind of
cooperation. I can give several examples connected with our citizens
abroad. The main problem is renewal and change of
passports. Unfortunately, this year the passport and visa granting
body was not able to attend to the needs of our citizens quickly
enough. To be more clear, as a result our citizens in Russia may
become illegal. I will keep this direction in the center of my
attention and will personally follow the work done in this sphere. And
the third, the most important problem is the coordination of work of
the ministry and different departments of the ministry, cooperation
between them, setting aims and choosing the right ways of achieving
them. In brief, it is the problem of setting up a system of management
within the ministry corresponding to the international standards. I
think, through taking corresponding measures in all these three
directions we will manage to increase the general effectiveness of the
work of the departments of the ministry.’
AA.
30-12-2004

BUDGET OF DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPERITY
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
30 Dec 04
Taking into account the fact during the discussion of the package of
the adherent documents of the state budget 2005 that there was
disagreement only in reference to one of the points of the bill `On
Amendments to the NKR Law on Income Tax’, we may state that on the
whole the government and the National Assembly achieved mutual
understanding. How would you explain this?` First of all, the
government had a serious and responsible approach towards the budget
for the next year assuring its realistic nature. Discussions at the
bodies of the executive, as well as the committees and factions of the
National Assembly in their turn favoured the accomplishment and
clarification of the document. As a result we worked out a document
which will not be an exaggeration to call a program for future
development. Naturally, this served as a basis for full mutual
understanding. – Although the economic year has not closed, it is not
difficult for the minister of finance and economy to present the
anticipated social-economic indices through the analysis of the
results. – First of all, I want to emphasize that the macroeconomic
rates describing the social and economic situation of the passing year
are promising and will serve as good basis for more serious programs
in the coming year. Observations show that the GDP of2004 will total
41.4 billion drams. In order to highlight the significance of this
number I will add that against the previous year it will grow by 15.3
per cent. We anticipate that budget revenues will total 4550.0 million
drams, that is to say, the growth against the previous year will total
43.5 per cent (3170.1 million drams in 2003). The volume of industrial
production will total 18 billion drams (11.1 billion in 2003), and
gross agricultural output will total about 22.3 billion drams,
exceeding the rates of the previous year by 62.2 and 6.1 per cent
respectively. In the republic about 137.0 million kWh of electricity
will be produced (in 2003 130.6 kWh) growing by 5 per cent. Thevolume
of capital building will total 9.2 billion drams (in 2003 8.7 billion
drams) increasing by 5.7 per cent against the previous year. In 2004
the number ofworkers in the republic will total about 34.7 thousand
people growing by 6.2 per cent (more than 2000 jobs). In 2004 the
average nominal salary will total 40 thousand drams (growing by 18.8
per cent), the income of the population will total 42.0 billion drams
(growing by 22.1 per cent). The volume of foreign trade of NKR in 2004
will total 60.2 billion drams growing by 23.6 per cent, export will
increase by 22.7 per cent (totaling 20.9 billion drams) and import by
24.1 per cent (totaling 39.3 billion drams). The total sum on credit
accounts ofthe population by December 1, 2004 was 9.5 billion drams
growing 2.2 times or by 5.2 billion drams since the beginning of the
year. The dynamics of growth of these indices testifies that
significant progress was achieved in the republic and a stable
economic sector was developed which supposes foreseeable
development. Now about macroeconomic forecasts for 2005. In 2005
social andeconomic policy of the Republic of Nagorni Karabakh will be
directed at the maintenance of the achieved high economic rates and
macroeconomic stability, improvement of the investment environment and
quality of life, continuous reduction of unemployment and solution of
social and economic problems. The average rateof the GDP for the years
2005-2007 is estimated about 11.3 per cent. In 2005 the estimated
actual growth of the GDP will total 11.5 per cent (48.0 billion
drams). The average index of the exchange rate of the Armenian dram
will be maintained in the correlation $1 for 500 AMD. In 2005 in the
republic capital building carried out on all the financial sources
will significantly exceed the level of the previous year. The
government will pay special attention to the development of small and
medium-size business which will become a significant factor in
creating jobs. Therefore in 2005 800.0 million drams will be directed
at development of small and medium-size business (against 200.0
million in 2004) of which 75 per cent will be spent on the development
of the agricultural sector (viticulture, cattle breeding, leasing of
agricultural machines, providing 200 million drams for each
branch). Here I should mention that about 30 per cent of the GDP of
the republic is provided by small and medium-size business owners. –
You mentioned that the growth of the gross agricultural output will
total 6.1 per cent. Compared to the growth of the GDP it falls back
ten times whereas there is more potential for development of
agriculture. – At the beginning of 2005 long-term programs for
development of the irrigation system will be launched (costing 500.0
million drams), as well as means will be provided for preservation of
forests (about 83.8 million drams). 50.0 million drams willbe provided
for restoration of forests. In 2005 tax policy will correspond to the
approaches adopted by the government in the recent years assuring the
development of the positive tendencies in the sphere, which will
favour thedevelopment of an active economic environment against the
general background of the economy and will result in economic
growth. – I think it will not be an exaggeration to say once again
that the budget of 2005 will traditionally have a social
character. How will this be expressed? – No doubt, the budget policy
of 2005 will focus on the solution of social problems, improvement of
quality of life on budget means. From January 1, 2005 the average
salary of teachers will grow up to 50500 drams (presently it is
30585), by 65.3 per cent. In 2005 the salaries of medical workers will
grow by almost 26 per cent totaling 36800 drams. The salaries of
workers of libraries, museums, cultural institutions and ensembles
will grow by 22.4 per cent (24 thousand drams). Pensions also will
increase since January 1, 2005. The basic pension will increase from
3000 in 2004 to 4000 in 2005 and the value of one year of service will
increase from 140 to160 drams. From January 1 the benefits of certain
groups of children will increase by 50 per cent. During the year
financial aid will be provided to 7 insecure groups. The veterans of
the Great Patriotic War, disabled, widows of the killed soldiers will
receive aid on the occasion of the 60th anniversary ofthe victory in
the Great Patriotic War on May 9 which will be doubled against 2004.
The state budget of 2005 having a social direction as the expenses on
the social sector total 58 per cent, as distinct from previous years,
significant means will be directed at the development of the sphere of
material production which will, in its turn favour economic
development. Thus, the brief picture of the 2005 NKR consolidated
budget is the following: income totals 9238.1 million drams, expenses
24178.1 million drams, deficit 14940.0 million drams. The budget
deficit will be made up on the means of the interstate loan providedby
the Republic of Armenia totaling 13636.6 million drams of which about
5.5 billion drams is accrued from duty payments at the customs border
of the Republic of Armenia for the consumers goods imported to NKR,
and 1303.4 million drams from other inner and outer sources. The
budget income in 2005 is estimated 6460 million drams against 4550.0
million drams in 2004, and the growth will total 42 per cent. I want
to draw your attention to the fact that only two years ago the actual
income of the state budget totaled 2235.0 million drams whereas the
index for the upcoming year already exceeds the level of 2002 three
times. As to the state budget expenses, since 2002 it has almost
doubled. The expected incomes of the community budget provide only 6.4
per cent of the consolidated budget revenues (tax on law, property,
local duties, and other types of income). The incomes of the NKR State
Fund of Social Insurance in 2005 willtotal 2732.1 million drams. In
2005 the state budget will provide 180.0 million drams for the
creation of the NKR real estate cadaster. – What is the picture of
budget expenses on separate spheres like? – 2005 NKR state budget of
expenses was worked out on the basis of macroeconomic forecasts and
budget rates for separate kinds of expenses. The measures for
improvement of the structure of the budget-finances institutions and
solution of social problems were also taken into account. At the same
time, the demand of maintaining the continuity ofthe measures provided
for by the 2004 budget was met. By the budget bill state budget
expenses were estimated 21400.0 million drams. Expenses on
educationand science total 16.3 per cent (3497.1 million drams) of the
total expenses. It is planned to open boarding schools from September
1, 2005 in Shoushi and Stepanakert to provide elementary and secondary
education to the children of socially insecure families. The estimated
expenses in the sphere of culture, youth and sport will total 748.4
million drams, which is 3.7 per cent of the budget expenses. These
include budget-financed institutions, competitions, services,
subsidizing of theatrical and concert institutions and editorial
houses. The 2005 state budget will provide 100.0 million drams for
restoration and repair of monuments. Taking into account the necessity
of development of sport in the republic, 98.9 million drams will be
provided for this purpose. The provided means will enable the
participation of our sportsmen in international competitions in
different sports and games. Of the sums provided for the development
of sport financial aid of 9.3 million drams will be provided to 15
sports federations and the NKR voluntary sports society. The expenses
in the sphere of health were planned 1210.0 million drams, which has
increased by 340 million since last year. The expenses in the sphere
of social security and social insurance will total 4490.0 million
drams which is 21.0 per cent of the budget expenses and has increased
by 317.7 million drams since last year. 576.6 million drams will be
provided for the benefits paid to separate groups of children. 190.0
million drams will be provided for the needs of the disabled of the
NKR defence and the families of the killed servicemen of which 150.0
million will be spent for providing families of killed soldiers with
apartments. Expenses in the sphere of agriculture will total 789.9
million drams of which 500.0 millionwill be spent on the programs of
irrigation. The financing of important activityin the sphere of
agriculture will continue (protection of plants, test for quality and
sorts of the seeds of crops, veterinary, sanitary service, etc.). –
What about expenses which are not in the main groups? – Transfers will
be made to the budgets of the municipalities totaling 592.6 million
drams. 3900.0 million drams have been planned for capital
investments. – Your opinion on the state budget not as a minister but
as a citizen of NKR. – Drawing your attention to the advantages of the
state budget 2005 I think the government is far from thinking that the
chief financial document of the coming year contains final settlements
of the problems in the spheres of life of the country as there remain
numerous unsettled problems. At the same time, working out the main
directions of social and economic development of the country in 2005,
we may state that the government showed a realistic approach in its
estimates, therefore the government is confident and determined that
it will bring into being its forecasts for 2005. The unprecedented
high social and economic rates of theclosing year underlie this
confidence. On the way of economic accomplishment NKR has achieved
significant progress. Using the occasion I wish our nation a HappyNew
Year and Merry Christmas.
M. PETROSSIAN.
30-12-2004

THE BEST PRESENT FOR CHRISTMAS
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
30 Dec 04
`This is the best New Year gift,’ exclaimed one of the spectators
during the concert of the Artsakh Chamber Orchestra on December 25
devoted to Christmas. As the conductor Gevorg Muradian had promised
during the previous concert, the Christmas concert was full of
surprises. Besides the already traditional repertoire the orchestra
performed works corresponding to the festive mood of the day: `Minuet’
and `Joke’ by Bach, waltzes by Strauss, Huno, Hungarian dance by
Brahms, `La Campanella’ by Paganini. Mary Karapetian andthe State
Choir of Artsakh performed `Lullaby’ by Kanachian, `News Went’ by
Satian and `Ave Maria’ by Schubert. `Silent Night’ by Bruber performed
by the orchestra and the choir imparted the concert with special
charm. The concert was closed with ` Jingle Bells’ by James Pierpoint
and `Radetski March’ by Strauss.
SUSANNA BALAYAN.
30-12-2004
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

PRESS RELEASE
The Armenian Prelacy
138 East 39th Street
New York, NY 10016
Tel: (212) 689-7810
Fax: (212) 689-7168
E-mail: [email protected]
Web:
Contact: Iris Papazian
CROSSROADS E-NEWSLETTER – December 30, 2004
ARCHBISHOP OSHAGAN ISSUES APPEAL
FOR VICTIMS OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
Archbishop Oshagan Choloyan, Prelate, today issued an appeal to the
Faithful of the Eastern Prelacy for immediate aid for the victims of
the violent earthquake and tidal waves. Calling it a natural disaster
of great magnitude, His Eminence issued the following statement:

We are witnessing what is being described as one of the worst natural
disasters in recent history. As we write this message, the official
death toll has already passed 100,000, and is expected to go even
higher.
The survivors of the massive underwater earthquake that brought on the
violent Tsunamis (tidal waves) need the help of every country and every
person. The areas affected include Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
India, the Maldives and as far away as Somalia in Africa. It is
critical that help reach these areas as soon as possible, otherwise the
death toll through disease and malnutrition can easily double.
What is needed most urgently is money so that relief agencies can
purchase the necessary staples in areas closer to the disaster areas
and make it available quickly to the suffering population.
We are asking all of our parishes to offer prayers for the dead and
the survivors on Sunday, January 2, asking the Faithful to make special
donations for relief aid to the affected areas. We suggest that the
sermon of the day include a message about the disaster. Whatever money
is collected should be immediately sent to the Prelacy office. We, in
turn, will transfer the total amount to AmeriCares. We have chosen
AmeriCares because this organization quickly came to the aid of the
victims of the 1988 earthquake in Armenia and to this day AmeriCares is
very instrumental in securing medical supplies, medicines, as well as
other items, which we send to Armenia on a regular basis.
Armenians, unfortunately, are all too familiar with great tragedies.
We have been the benefactors of the altruism of others. Let us open our
hearts and our pockets to help humanitarian assistance reach those
caught up in this tragic scenario. We ask you to make every effort to
generously participate in this endeavor so that we can make a
respectful and substantial donation on behalf of the Armenian Church.
As we prepare to celebrate the New Year and the birth of our Lord and
Savior let us bring to life His teachings by helping our fellow human
beings.
Donations can be made through your local parishes or by sending your
check directly to the Prelacy. Checks should be payable to the Armenian
Apostolic Church of America and mailed to 138 E. 39th Street, New York,
NY 10016.
GOOD WISHES FOR THE NEW YEAR
Historically, the New Year (Amanor or Gaghand in Armenian), has been a
time of happiness and celebration. In fact, for Armenians it is at the
New Year that gifts are exchanged, and children anticipate the arrival
of Gaghand Baba.
All of us here at Crossroads wish all of you, our valued readers, a
happy and healthy New Year.
CHRISTMAS EDITION OF CROSSROADS NEXT WEEK
Next week we will have a special Christmas edition of Crossroads,
which you will receive on Wednesday instead of Thursday.
RING OUT, WILD BELLS
Ring out, wild bells, to the wild sky,
The flying cloud, the frosty light:
The year is dying in the night;
Ring out, wild bells, and let him die.
Ring out the old, ring in the new,
Ring, happy bells, across the snow:
The year is going, let him go;
Ring out the false, ring in the true.
by Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Happy New Year!
Visit our website at

Armenian Assembly of America
50 N. La Cienega Blvd., Suite 202
Beverly Hills, CA 90211
Phone: 310-360-0091
Fax: 310-360-0094
Email: [email protected]
Web:

PRESS RELEASE
December 30, 2004
CONTACT: Lena Kaimian
Email: [email protected]
ARMENIAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY HOSTS “INTERNATIONAL RELIEF, REFUGE, AND
RECOGNITION” TRIBUTE
Los Angeles, CA – The Armenian Assembly, the Armenian General
Benevolent Union and the Western Diocese of the Armenian Church are
pleased to announce an event to honor and pay tribute to the numerous
nations that were instrumental in offering their support to the
Armenian people.
The program, entitled “International Relief, Refuge, and Recognition”,
will recognize those nations that have officially acknowledged the
Armenian Genocide, given refuge, and or provided relief to its
survivors. The luncheon will be held on Thursday, February 24th in Los
Angeles and will feature members of the diplomatic corps in
California, relief organizations, scholars, and the media.
This event will also serve as a prelude to a series of local,
national, and international events that will commemorate and raise
awareness of the 90th Anniversary of the Armenian Genocide.
This will expand upon the continued partnership between the three
organizations that began at the Assembly’s 2004 National Conference in
Washington. “This event is significant for our community in order to
recognize those nations that extended their hand to our people and
assisted with the survival of the Armenian nation,” said Archbishop
Hovnan Derderian, Primate of the Western Diocese. The luncheon
welcomes the Armenian-American community and the community at-large.
The Armenian Assembly of America is the largest Washington-based
nationwide organization promoting public understanding and awareness
of Armenian issues. It is a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt membership
organization.

NR#2004-111

Iran wants Azeri mediation in talks with Washington – paper
Zerkalo, Baku
29 Dec 04

Iran has proposed that Baku act as a mediator to help resolve Tehran’s
problems with the USA, the Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo said. The
newspaper reported that Tehran is ready to resolve all disputed issues
with Azerbaijan, including the status of the Caspian, which has been a
bone of contention between the two countries for a long time, and not
to use force against Azerbaijan in return for a guarantee that
Azerbaijan will not allow the USA to invade or strike Iran from its
territory. The following is an excerpt from R. Mirqadirov report by
Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo on 29 December headlined “Tehran needs
Baku’s support” and subheaded “Although it blackmails us by missile
strikes”. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The last month before the New Year can be regarded as an “Iranian”
month in Baku. In this short period of time, four high-ranking
officials of the Tehran regime visited the Azerbaijani capital. The
Iranian president’s special envoy on Caspian issues, Mehdi Safari,
Health Minister Mas’ud Pezeshkian, Information Minister Ali Yunesi and
finally Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani visited the capital. Almost
immediately after the New Year celebrations in early January, Baku
expects Iranian Vice-President Huseyn Marishan [untraced]. But let us
go back to the already paid visits, during which a number of
sensational statements were made.
Rapprochement on Caspian
Immediately after Mehdi Safari’s visit, Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign
Minister Xalaf Xalafov said he does not rule out that an agreement may
be signed with Iran on the division of the Caspian during President
Ilham Aliyev’s official visit to Tehran in January 2005. “A certain
rapprochement” is being felt in the negotiating process between
Azerbaijan and Iran on the division of the Caspian and “there is
mutual understanding in the parties’ approaches”, Xalafov said.
Incidentally, the opposition and the independent press described
Safari’s visit as “a secret one” because of the lack of any
information on the negotiations although the Iranian president’s
special envoy met President Aliyev, Prime Minister Artur Rasizada and
finally Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov.
After Safari, Iranian Information Minister Ali Yunesi visited Baku and
held negotiations with Azerbaijan’s ruling elite, including the
president.
Yunesi stressed at his meeting with the president that they “are
looking forward” to the Azerbaijani president’s visit to Iran. This
visit will contribute to “peace and stability in the region”, the
guest said. Yunesi noted the high level of cooperation between the two
countries’ special services.
[Passage omitted: protocols on cooperation and memorandum were signed]
Diadem of Iranian visits
However, the diadem of the “Iranian month” in Baku was the visit by
Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani. It is worth noting that it was
Shamkhani’s first visit to Azerbaijan. The press service of the
Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said before the visit that no documents
were planned to be signed on the outcome of the meeting. And that was
the case. But the statement issued by Shamkhani was more than
eloquent. “Azerbaijan’s security is our security. Our defence
capability is your defence capability. We are ready to establish any
relations with Azerbaijan and there is no force to prevent this,”
Shamkhani said.
Nearly the same scenario was observed during Shamkhani’s meetings with
the Azerbaijani president and the foreign minister.
Thus, visits to Azerbaijan by Iran’s high-ranking dignitaries have
become frequent in recent months. The Azerbaijani president delicately
hinted at this fact at his meeting with Shamkhani.
He said that the recent frequent visits to Azerbaijan by various
official delegations from Iran clearly testify to the expansion of
bilateral relations. In his view, the successful development of
Azerbaijani-Iranian relations serves the cause of strengthening peace
and security in the region.
Azerbaijan could mediate between Iran and USA
One gets the impression that Iran wants to resolve all disputed
problems with Azerbaijan in an accelerated way. Most political
analysts in Baku believe that Iran is at least trying to minimize the
US presence in the region with Russia’s support. The primary objective
here is not to let Azerbaijan become a bridgehead for US troops and
members of the antiterrorist coalition in the fight against Iran.
Informed experts believe that the issue of a US military presence in
Azerbaijan in this or other form will be finally resolved in 2005. All
this may happen under the pretext of protecting the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export pipeline and offshore fields.
An informed military source told Zerkalo that the purpose of
Shamkhani’s visit to Baku is “to eliminate the clandestine military
confrontation between the two countries” and find out the future of
Azerbaijan’s policy towards Iran. Because many in Baku still remember
the violations of our maritime and air borders by Iranian planes and
vessels.
Zerkalo has found out from informed diplomatic sources that the Tehran
regime suggests that Baku act as a mediator in negotiations with
Washington, since it is not quite sure about the “endurance” of its
only ally in the region, Russia, following the developments in
Ukraine. In return, Iran is ready to settle all disputed issues with
Azerbaijan, as mentioned above, first of all, to provide security
guarantees, or in other words, to promise by means of an agreement
that Iran will never use force to resolve disputed issues between the
two countries. This is how Shamkhani’s statement that “Azerbaijan’s
security is our security” should be interpreted.
“Blackmail”
Besides, the same informed sources also said that Tehran is ready to
sign a bilateral agreement on the status of the Caspian under
conditions offered by [the late Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev
during his official visit to Tehran. In other words, Tehran is ready
to agree to the division of the Caspian into national sectors by a
median line. This being the case, the disputed oil fields will be
exploited jointly.
In return, Tehran wants to get a guarantee that Azerbaijan’s territory
will not be used by the USA to invade or strike Iran. Besides, Tehran
suggests that Baku act as a mediator to resolve the existing problems
with the USA, since it meets Azerbaijan’s interests, too.
Nevertheless, the source said, there is an element of blackmail in
this “bargaining”. The matter is that the representatives of Tehran
made a clear hint during the negotiations that if the USA uses
Azerbaijani territory to invade or carry out missile strikes on Iran,
a retaliatory missile strike on Azerbaijan will be unavoidable.

Azeri President to visit Iran in February
IRNA web site, Tehran
29 Dec 04
Baku, 30 December: Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar
Mammamdyarov said here Wednesday [29 December] that President Ilham
Aliyev’s upcoming sensitive state visit of Iran is aimed at deepening
bilateral ties.
Mammamdyarov made the comment in a meeting with Islamic Republic of
Iran’s Ambassador to Baku Afshar Soleymani.
Referring to the process of preparing the documents to be signed
during President Aliyev’s February state visit of Iran by the two
countries’ officials, the Azeri foreign minister appreciated the
efforts made by Iran’s Embassy in that respect.
Elmar Mammamdyarov meanwhile thanked his Iranian counterpart for
sending a congratulation message on the occasion of the Christian New
Year, asking the Iranian ambassador to convey his congratulation on
the occasion to Dr Kharrazi.
The two officials during the meeting also evaluated the outcome of the
Iranian health and defence ministers’ recent trips to Baku as “quite
positive and important in expansion of bilateral ties.”
The Iranian envoy, too, said during the meeting, “During the Health,
Treatment and Medical Education Minister Masud Pezeshkiyan’s trip to
Azerbaijan the draft for the two countries’ health and medical
memorandum of understanding to be signed by the two countries’
presidents was prepared, and approved by the two countries’
officials.”
He added, “The two countries also reached agreement on construction of
a hospital, manufacturing medicine, and kidney transplant surgeries in
Azerbaijan by the Iranian side.
Soleymani announced, “Kidney transplant surgeries would be done at one
of Baku’s hospitals by Iranian physicians.”
The Iranian envoy expressed certainty that President Aliyev’s
three-day state visit, in response to President Khatami’s state visit
of Baku in 2004, would open a new chapter in two countries’ relations.
Some of the other issues addressed during the meeting included other
aspects of bilateral ties, regional developments, and reciprocal
support of the two countries for each other at international scenes.

Stratfor.com
Armenia: The Crush of Global Pressures
December 28, 2004 1815 GMT
Summary
The former Soviet republic of Armenia, located at the crushing center
of a series of geopolitical tectonic plates, is on the cusp of a
massive change. But unlike many of the other former Soviet republics
that are choosing between Russia and the West, Armenia’s choice is not
nearly as clear-cut — and its future will be free of the decisive
paths that may be available to other states.
Analysis
Armenia is a former Soviet republic in trouble. Its economy holds
little prospect, its people are leaving in droves and its geopolitical
space is under siege. The one factor that has helped it keep its head
above water to date is Russian sponsorship. But, as Russia racks up
geopolitical defeats, that too could soon give way.
The South Caucasus that Armenians call home is where the Russian,
Turkish and Iranian geopolitical plates converge, putting the small
states there under enormous — and continuous — pressure. Georgia and
Azerbaijan have opted to look not just to Turkey next door, but also
to Europe and the United States. Such connections make Iran —
clerical regime or not — hostile to both states, a factor that is
only enflamed when one considers that nearly a quarter of Iran’s
population is actually of Azerbaijani ethnicity.
Armenia, for reasons of war, history, and the 1915 Armenian Genocide
by the Turks, naturally looks to Iran, and especially similarly
Orthodox Christian Russia to counterbalance itself against its hostile
eastern and western neighbors.
Under the Soviet system, Armenia received its oil from Azerbaijan and
traded (as part of the Soviet Union) with Turkey. As the Soviet era
ended, however, Armenia became embroiled in a war with Azerbaijan over
the fate of Nogorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian enclave within
Azerbaijani territory. Armenia — or if you believe Yerevan’s public
relations, Armenian volunteers supporting the Karabakh Armenians —
won the war and continues to control a large western slice of
Azerbaijani territory contingent to it. But Turks, who consider
Azerbaijanis their ethnic kin based on historical, ethnic and
linguistic grounds, slapped on a near-total embargo, limiting
Armenia’s trade options to only Georgia to the north and Iran to the
south.
Armenia has refused to negotiate down from this untenable geopolitical
position. After winning the Nogorno-Karabakh war, Armenian leaders —
backed by a fiery nationalism that is quite popular among Armenians
within both the country and the diaspora — have refused to seriously
negotiate a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that might end the
military standoff.
To be fair, the Azerbaijanis have not exactly been extending olive
branches either, but Baku believes that ultimately its oil and natural
gas revenues will allow it to build up a military force capable of
recapturing its lost territory. It likely is correct. Armenia, on the
other hand, is an economic basket case dependent upon diaspora support
for one-fifth of its gross domestic product. Nearly one-third of
Armenians have emigrated abroad to look for better opportunities since
independence in 1991, the sharpest population decline anywhere in the
world. Only three million remain. There are eight million Azerbaijanis
and 69 million Turks.
To sustain its political and military positions, Armenia largely is
dependent upon Russia, as the source of nearly all of its energy and
its de facto security guarantor. Russia’s commitment to the Armenian
relationship will soon begin to falter, and with it, quite possibly
Armenia’s chances for survival.
The dawning problem is one that Armenian President Robert Kocharian
has foreseen. In October 1999 there was a paramilitary attack against
the Armenian Parliament that resulted in the deaths of several members
of the country’s mostly pro-Russian political faction; Russia took
advantage of the situation to send special forces troops in and cement
its political influence in the small country. The attack and Moscow’s
reaction to it shook Kocharian’s view of the Russians as a dependable
ally. After all, if the Russians could not prevent its most ardent
supporters from harm, and would take advantage of Armenian instability
to strengthen its grip, was Russian protection really worth it?
Kocharian, always a moderate on the issue of Russia, began quietly
reaching out to other potential power centers in an attempt to balance
foreign interests in Yerevan.
But the coming crisis has little to do with Armenian desires of
balance, and everything to do with a new world being forced upon the
small country. In 2005 the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline will
activate, and within two years its sister project, the Shah Deniz
natural gas pipeline, will most likely also enter operation. The two
parallel lines will transport Azerbaijani energy west through Georgia
and Turkey and then on to global markets. Azerbaijan and Georgia will
then be getting all of their energy needs from the two projects and
will no longer need to import any energy from Russia’s Caucasian
network.
Once that happens, Armenia will no longer be able to depend upon
Russian deliveries. On one hand, the economics of maintaining the
network of supplying Armenia — which does not even border Russia —
are questionable unless Russia can also ship petroleum to Azerbaijan
and Georgia. Economies of scale and all that.
More importantly, the Georgians are not particularly fond of Russians.
Once they have a reliable alternative to the purchase of Russian
natural gas, they are very likely — just as the Moldovans,
Ukrainians, Belarusians and Transdnesiterians have done before them —
to siphon supplies bound for elsewhere (i.e. Armenia) from the Russian
supply line that crosses their territory. That will put Russia in the
awkward position of either subsidizing a geopolitical foe, or cutting
off supplies to Armenia to spite Georgia.
Even worse than the energy issue, Georgia may soon be causing problems
for Russia’s military deployment in Armenia. Already Georgian
authorities — with full Western support — are blocking Russia from
resupplying and rotating new troops into its Georgian military base in
Akhalkalaki near the Armenian border. Once the Russians are forced out
of Akhalkalaki, as seems likely, it will become an open question
whether Tbilisi will impinge upon Russia’s ability to keep its
Armenian forces supplied.
Either way Russia’s most significant contributions to Armenian
security are about to fall into jeopardy, and, fate in the Caucasus
being a fickle thing, the Armenians must plan accordingly.
Armenia is preparing for a possible future without Russian sponsorship
in two ways. First, it is looking to its other traditional backer,
Iran, to fill the gap. The Armenians and the Iranians already are
putting together an alternative natural gas supply line to keep the
lights on in Yerevan. Unlike Russia, Iran actually borders Armenia, so
maintaining a new network is not an overburdening expense. Unlike the
massive trans-Caucasus network that connects Armenia to Russia, the
Iranian-Armenian project only requires a mere $30 million, 26-mile
pipe linking the countries’ networks together.
But Iran can never be Russia: their cultures are too dissimilar and,
unlike Russia, Iran lacks the ability to project power in a way that
might dissuade Azerbaijan or Turkey from working against Armenia. Iran
favors Armenia over its Shiite compatriots in Azerbaijan because it is
concerned about maintaining supremacy over the Turkic minority within
its own country and as a lever to keep Azerbaijan and Turkey
physically separated. It is a relationship based upon mutual interest,
but unlike Azerbaijan and its Turkish sponsor, the two are not willing
to sacrifice anything — certainly not blood — for each other. Even
if they wanted to, their military projection capabilities are
questionable to say the least.
Military intimidation in the Caspian is something that has already
backfired horrendously on the Iranians. In 2001, Iran fired warning
shots at Baku-based ships prospecting near the Iranian-Azerbaijani sea
border. Turkey responded by helping Azerbaijan host military
exercises. When it was over, several advanced fighter jets, complete
with Turkish pilots, remained behind.
Undercutting the commitment of the gas line, Iran is even working to
pipe some Turkmen gas to the Armenian market so that should Armenia
default on its energy debts — as it has in the past — Iran will be
left holding the transit fees, but Turkmenistan the energy bill.
Second, Armenia is extending Washington a tentative hand, and what
better way to do it than to support the current administration’s
primary international project? On Dec. 4, the Armenian Parliament
voted to empower Kocharian to send a small team — 46 support
personnel — to participate in the Iraqi occupation coalition. The
contingent will not be seeing any combat, and the entire affair has
been carefully orchestrated (with the United States paying for the
whole thing).
This puts Armenia on the long list of former Soviet republics and
clients which have sought to trade the Kremlin for the West: Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia,
Serbia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and most recently — and loudly —
Ukraine.
Unlike all of these states, however, Armenia cannot fully choose the
Western path.
Armenia, unlike the states aforementioned states, is not
geographically proximate to the Western states. And unlike Azerbaijan
and Georgia (who share this characteristic), Armenia has no oil
(unlike Azerbaijan) and has missed out on its chance to be a transit
route that could ship petroleum westward (unlike Georgia).
Moreover, for Armenia to truly make a go at Westernizing, it would
have to bury the hatchet with Turkey and Azerbaijan, which would mean,
at a minimum, withdrawing the bulk of its forces — volunteers — from
internationally-recognized Azerbaijani territory. In addition to that
being a non-starter at home, it would enrage the Armenian diaspora,
endangering the one international advantage that Armenia enjoys; the
diaspora’s economic support is the only thing that keeps the Armenian
economy in its pseudo-functional shape.
This commits Armenia to strategic ambiguity out of circumstance rather
than design. Russia is being cut off, the West is for all practical
purposes out of reach, and Iran is so fundamentally different that
though Armenia can be a good neighbor it could never really be a
client. Winds of change are blowing in Armenia. Russia is more
strategically distant than ever, and the West’s strategy of triggering
soft revolutions a la Georgia and Ukraine has proven reliable.
Armenia’s next presidential elections are in 2006.
Winds of change are blowing in Armenia; it is not clear whether
Armenia will survive them.

Window on Eurasia: Russia’s First Illegal Alien Deportation Camp Opens in
Krasnodar
29 December 2004

Paul Goble

Tartu, December 29 – A camp intended to confine illegal
immigrants until they can be speedily deported from the Russian Federation
opened today in Krasnodar krai, the first such camp to be opened in
post-Soviet Russia and one organized in such a way that it seems certain to
exacerbate ethnic tensions not only there but elsewhere as well.
Krasnodar Governor Aleksandr Tkachev, who has long pushed this
idea, said at the opening that “we have begun the struggle with univited
guests, and we will continue this work to find, detain, and expell those who
do not wish to obey” Russian laws, Radio Mayak Kubani reported earlier
today. ( )
Tkachev added that people living in his territory “ought to be
able to live a peaceful life and not be afraid of going out to work or to
rest. And as experience shows, among these illegal [migrants], there are
criminals.”
In the near future, Krasnoyarsk officials have indicated that
they plan to open three additional camps elsewhere in that southern Russian
region. Each of these four tent cities will hold up to 150 people pending
deportation and will be heavily guarded, according to “Novyyze izvestiya.”
(See .)
This action comes following a significant increase in the
reported number of illegal aliens coming into the region from the Caucasus
and Central Asia and the apparent inability of officials there to control
the situation, even though in the last year alone they had increased the
number of militia officers solely responsible for dealing with this issue to
400.
Officials both in Moscow and the regions are attempting to deal
with the anger many Russians feel toward illegal immigrants, especially
those from the Caucasus and Central Asia. But so far, most of the measures
they have tried have proved ineffective often because of the corruption of
militia officers who often are willing to allow illegal aliens to remain for
a price.
That has led to calls for more radical measures like those now
being introduced in Krasnodar. But there are three reasons for thinking
that these steps are likely to exacerbate ethnic tensions there even if they
succeed in reducing the influx of illegal aliens from the Caucasus or
further afield.
First, Tkachev has played upon popular prejudice by suggesting
that illegal immigrants are responsible for a rise in crime. Research by
the Interior Ministry in Moscow and by the noted ethnosociologist Emil Pain
have disproved that contention, but many Russians are inclined to believe
it. Tkachev’s remarks will only reinforce such attitudes.
Second, the Krasnodar authorities say that they will organize
the camps on ethnic lines. That is, they will put people from Ukraine and
Moldova in one of the camps, people from Armenia in another, and those from
Central Asian countries in a third. Intended to make the management of these
camps easier, this step could easily have just the opposite effect.
(Other Russian regional governments which have thought about
setting up such filtration camps in the past have concluded that it would be
a mistake to organize them along ethnic lines, lest that provoke an
explosion. ( ).)
And third, Tkachev and his staff say that they want to do all
this without putting undue burdens on Krasnodar taxpayers. To that end,
they have created tent cities with few amenities. And they plan to force
the illegal migrants to pay for their own deportations either on their own
or by getting money from their co-ethnics who are living in the krai
legally.
The logic behind that approach seems to be that this will make
the local non-Russian communities less willing to help their co-ethnics come
to Krasnodar, but it is entirely likely that in at least some cases, this
tactic will provoke anti-government and even anti-Russian feelings among
both those confined and those who are told to help them.
Tkachev’s policies may nonetheless be popular with ethnic
Russians there who are angry about illegal immigration. Consequently and
especially in the absence of serious criticism from outside, what he does
may very well be copied by others in other region’s of the country where the
influx of illegal migrants is large.
But even such draconian measures may not reduce the number of illegal aliens
any time soon. Economic and demographic pressures are simply too great. What
such steps almost certainly will do, however, is to further divide the
Russian Federation’s ethnic communities and thus make the achievement of
interethnic accord there that much more difficult.