TROUBLE BREWING FOR ARMENIA
Azg/arm
15 Jan 05
There is real cause for concern when the major news media in the West
begin to focus on Armenia and dwell on the woes that the country is
experiencing at this time. The articles published in the December 9,
2004 and December 26, 2004 issues of The New York Times and signed by
Susan Sachs don’t seem to be coincidental. At the risk of being blamed
for conspiratorial mentality, we will venture to classify this sudden
surge of attention as one of the plots being hatched in that part of
the world.
Ms. Sachs’ very titles indicate what she is up to – “For young
Armenians, a promised land without promise”, “Armenia’s isolation
grows only deeper”. Her conclusion cannot be construed as a Freudian
slip, as she says, “The prospects appear grim without outside
intervention”. “Outside intervention” is the buzzwords about the
impending dangers that the country should anticipate. The fact that
Armenia’s economic liberalization has put the country on the higher
gear of growth has not impressed the writer enough so that she has
taken the pains to interview some destitute and disgruntled youth to
substantiate her grim predictions about Armenia. We have no reason to
doubt the veracity of the complaints. But ignoring the growth of
Armenia’s domestic product (13% in 2002 and 15% in 2004), which placed
the country among the fastest growing economies of former Soviet
Republics, to draw a desperate picture certainly has a political
motivation behind. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, with all its oil
resources, lives in abject misery under a medieval despotic rule, yet
it fails to attract the attention of The New York Times; nor has
neighboring Georgia, which, despite its “rose revolution”, has been
torn in three directions and has plunged into an energy crisis.
Those New York Times articles only echo and complement another article
signed recently by David Phillips in The Wall Street Journal
pontificating that Armenia can live in peace and prosperity ever after
at the tender mercies of neighboring Turkey by removing the Russian
military bases from its territory.
These two influential publications, which have shown sudden interest
in Armenia’s plight failed to report the demonstration of ten thousand
European Armenians, who recently converged to Brussels to protest
Turkey’s accessiontalks with the European Union. That huge
demonstration was not deemed newsworthy.
To complete the mosaic of the political machinations we should also
refer to another initiative, which took place recently, when the
former President Levon Ter-Petrossian was pulled out of his
self-imposed isolation to rub shoulders with incumbent and former US
Presidents at the inauguration of President Clinton’s library. That
was also a not so subtle message to the rulers in Yerevan.
It is very obvious that post-Cold War new world order is being set on
two different levels; by force or by subversion. Yugoslavia was
dismembered under false pretense and Iraq was occupied to serve
Israel’s political needs â=80` at the cost of American money and
blood. On the other hand, colorful “revolutions” began burgeoning in
different parts of the world: Thus the “rose revolution” propelled an
inexperienced young lawyer to the presidency of Georgia (after
“peacefully” smashing the parliament gates). The “orange revolution”
brought Yushenko to power in Ukraine by cutting Russia to size. The
Cold war is continuing under a different guise. Yet still the name of
the game is to contain Russia into its ever-shrinking territory.
Unfortunately, Armenia is caught in this geo-strategic chess game, and
hopefully any revolution that is being concocted in the dark will not
turn out to be a “red revolution”.
Recently the Kocharian administration was cornered to test the
validity of its “complementarist” foreign policy by forcing it to send
a symbolic number of troops to Iraq to join the occupation forces,
which have a fig leaf called “the coalition”.
Armenia’s government was caught between a rock and a hard place. Since
Azerbaijan was being lavishly rewarded for its participation in, and
position on the Iraq war, Armenia was challenged to match Baku’s
commitments to the West. Therefore, the government in Armenia
grudgingly agreed to participate in the occupation of Iraq, with the
full knowledge that it was jeopardizing the lives of Armenians living,
not only in Iraq, but also in the entire Muslim world. Even before the
Armenian contingent set foot in Iraq, the warning shots were already
heard when the Armenian churches were bombed. We need to brace for
further trouble in the Arab world, where Armenians were received with
open arms in the aftermath of the Genocide.
All those developments seem to be components of a similar design to
drive Armenia to further concessions vis-Ã -vis Turkey and Azerbaijan
or drive the country to extinction. This, by no means, must be
construed as extreme pessimism, since The New York Times article has
made a specific reference in that direction. Indeed, Ms. Sachs has
found a young male activist in the town ofGumry who has conveniently
stated, “If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an
island…everyone will forget Armenia”.
The New York Times editor has gleefully quoted the young man’s
statement, which is very much in tune with the thrust of her articles.
All these articles and other developments seem to be the tip of the
iceberg. Much seems to be in store yet.
Hopefully, the future is not that grim. We cannot allow it to be grim.
By Charlotte Vande, 1/11/05

The struggle to keep the faith in Bethlehem
The Times/UK
January 15, 2005
by Michael Binyon
After 2,000 years Christianity is in danger of extinction in the land
of its birth

FOR the first time in several years, a few rays of hope have begun to
shine over Bethlehem. The recent elections for a Palestinian president
passed off relatively peacefully and fairly, despite complaints about
Israeli barricades and bureaucracy. Almost twice as many visitors as
last year thronged Manger Square to celebrate midnight Mass at
Christmas, and there were also more Orthodox Christians who came to
celebrate at their Christmas on January 7. Could this mean that the
terrible events of recent years – the Israeli siege of the Church of
the Nativity, the curfews, blockades and violence – may now be
followed by desperately needed calm and stability?
Christians in Bethlehem ardently hope so. For, despite the brief
upsurge in pilgrims and tourism, there is a bleak midwinter.
Unemployment, economic collapse and emigration have devastated their
community. Many fear that Christianity, after 2,000 years, may soon be
extinguished in the land of its birth.
For hundreds of years and throughout Ottoman rule, Christians formed a
majority in Bethlehem. In the last century they were 90 per cent of
the population. But since the Israeli occupation, and especially
after the start of the first Palestinian intifada, they have been
leaving.
Since the Pope’s visit in March 2000 (six months before the second
intifada and when there was still hope of a political solution with
Israel), an estimated 3,000 people have moved abroad. They have left
behind a communitynow down to 21,500, barely a third of the
Palestinian population.
Christians with education, savings or ambition are leaving for
America, South America, Canada, Australia – anywhere where they can
escape the occupation and economic stagnation. Those who remain are
increasingly old, poor and despairing. They cannot even reach the
churches of nearby Jerusalem without difficulty. The new separation
fence hems in the little town, and Israeli checkpoints make what was
once a short and easy journey over the stony hills a frustrating
experience.
In Jerusalem itself, the Christians are equally demoralised. Their
numbers, too, are falling fast. At the time of the British mandate,
Christians formed about 10 per cent of the Palestinian population. Now
they are probably no more than 2 per cent.
It is not simply that many are leaving. The Christian birthrate is
about half that of Muslims. And Christians find themselves caught
between two communities. They have suffered as much as their Muslim
neighbours from therecent violence. But many say the Muslims believe
them to be less active in the struggle against occupation, and they
are seen as more ready to co-operate with the Israelis – a perception
that makes for bad blood between the two communities.
These mutual suspicions were intensified by the Christian-Muslim
clashes that took place in Nazareth in 1999 over the proposal to build
a mosque, authorised by Israel, next to the Basilica of the
Annunciation.
In Jerusalem, the Christians are suffering, as in Bethlehem, from the
lack of pilgrims and tourists. But in recent years they have come
increasingly into conflict with the Israelis over the management and
status of their churches. Partly this is because of the churches’
extensive land holdings, partly because Israeli settlers are
determined to expand their presence in the Old City, and partly
because Christian clergy now identify themselves more than before with
the Palestinian cause and have become suspect in official Israeli
eyes.
The leadership of the Greek Orthodox Church, which has the largest
Palestinian membership, has run into conflict with Israel over its
appointments. The present Patriarch, Irenous I, is 140th in a direct
line of succession. His appointment was confirmed only in the autumn
after a two-year delay. Israelsaw him as too close to Yassir Arafat,
and delayed recognition of his appointment through a court case
accusing him of anti-Semitism, finally dismissed by the Israeli
Supreme Court. Another priest of Palestinian origin, Father
AtallahHanna, was appointed church spokesman in Jerusalem in 2001 and
became outspoken in denouncing the occupation. He was frequently
stopped and questioned, placed under house arrest and finally
disinvested by the Patriarch under Israeli pressure.
Other denominations have had other disputes, many concerning land
sales. The St John’s Hospice building in the Old City was occupied by
a group of Jewish settlers, causing general concern among Christians
at the lack of an official response.
One of the main concerns is the Christian claim that Israeli
authorities are indifferent to the observance of the age-old status
quo – the complex balance between the various factions which has for
centuries maintained a precarious peace between the Greek Orthodox,
the Armenians, the Latins, Copts, Ethiopians and others who claim
rights in the custody of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
In the negotiations leading to the establishment of diplomatic
relations with the Vatican, Israel signed a Fundamental Agreement in
1993, giving the Vatican also an official say in church affairs in
Jerusalem. This has yet to be ratified by the Knesset.
Samuel Jacob Kuruvilla, a specialist in Middle East politics at Exeter
University, details many of the clashes in the current issue of the
Palestinian journal al-Aqsa. He argues that recent Israeli proposals,
such as opening anew entrance to the Holy Sepulchre and ending the
800-year tradition that entrusts its keys to two prominent Muslim
families, have elicited intense suspicion from Jerusalem’s Christians
who fear that they will upset the status quo.
`The churches were suspicious whether the Israelis had any plans
ofextending a foothold into the Church of the Holy Sepulchre much as
they had done on the Temple Mount,’ Kuruvilla said. They feared that
the Israelis were planning ` to do what no rulers of Jerusalem had
ever succeeded in carrying out, namely to interfere with the sole
right of the churches themselves to manage affairs within the
precincts of the church’.
Church frustration is directed not only against the ruling
authorities, however. Kuruvilla said that many Christians in Jerusalem
were angry that the European powers had failed to recognise the
sensitivities and traditions of historic churches in the land in which
they were born.

Japan hopes for speedy Karabakh solution, visiting minister tells Azeri radio
ANS Radio, Baku
14 Jan 05
The Tokyo government hopes that the Nagornyy Karabakh problem will be
settled soon, visiting Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Ichiro Aisawa
has told ANS.
We hope that the conflict will be solved through talks. The Japanese
government might render humanitarian aid to the refugees, end of
quote.
The visit by the Japanese deputy foreign minister is aimed at
expanding ties between the two countries, especially developing
cooperation in the economic sphere.
Mr Aisawa spoke highly of the fact that the former Japanese ambassador
to Azerbaijan, Toshiyuki Fujiwara, was chosen Man of the Year.
This is very nice. Japan and Azerbaijan have done a lot to deepen
mutual respect and trust in a few years. At the same time, I am proud
of the fact that the honorary title was conferred on our ambassador
and his work was appreciated, end of quote.

Moscow Times
Jan 14 2005
Bush Has a Packed Agenda for Putin
By Simon Saradzhyan
Staff Writer
The White House is not conducting an official review of its Russia
policy over the Kremlin’s drive to consolidate power, but President
George W. Bush will voice his concerns over Moscow’s record on
building democracy when he meets with President Vladimir Putin at a
summit next month, a senior U.S. State Department official said
Thursday.
“This is not accurate in a sense of a headline,” said Elizabeth
Jones, assistant U.S. secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, when
asked to comment on recent reports in the U.S. press that a Russia
policy review is under way in the Bush administration.
Jones — who is leaving her post together with Secretary of State
Colin Powell and a number of other senior officials — also said she
does not foresee any fundamental change in the Russia policy in the
second Bush administration. Bush has nominated national security
adviser Condoleezza Rice as the next secretary of state.
Jones, speaking via a video link that connected her Washington office
with Moscow, Rome and Bratislava, Slovakia, called the news
conference to talk about a trip by Bush to Europe in February that
will include NATO and European Union meetings as well as bilateral
talks with Russian and Belgian leaders.

Official statements from the Kremlin about the summit between Bush
and Putin have so far largely been limited to a statement that the
two will meet in Bratislava on Feb. 24. The Foreign Ministry has yet
to hold a briefing on the summit.
>From Washington’s point of view, the main tracks of U.S.-Russian
cooperation are “very clear,” Jones said. The Bush administration
will continue to count on Russia as an important partner in the
struggle against terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction and their technologies, she said. And the presidents will
discuss ways to advance cooperation on these international security
issues as well as Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization.
While determined to advance security and economic cooperation, Bush
also plans to prod Putin over a lack of “progress in the democratic
transformation of Russia,” Jones said. “[There] doesn’t seem to be as
much progress there as it would have been expected when the two
presidents first met in Ljubljana almost four years ago,” she said.
Asked what worries Bush most about the future of democracy in Putin’s
Russia, Jones said, “There is a deep concern on the part of many,
including in Russia, about … the balance between the civil society
and the government, about increased consolidation in the government.
“What happened to the great abundance of media in Russia? What about
that? There are very serious concerns about the plight of NGOs in
terms of increased state control.”
Putin explained to Bush at length his elimination of gubernatorial
elections and plans to scrap independent State Duma races when the
two met in Chile in November, according to a senior U.S. official’s
account of their meeting. At the time, the two agreed to discuss the
issue further.
The Bush administration also has questions about the rule of law in
the Yukos saga. “What is really Russia’s intention there? What is
really under way there in the retroactive use of the tax code?” Jones
said, referring to multibillion-dollar back-tax bills slapped on
Yukos and confirmed by Russian courts.
While concerned about parts of the Kremlin’s domestic policy, the
Bush administration is pleased with bilateral cooperation in the
struggle against terror and arms proliferation. Jones commended
Russia for “working cooperatively in connection with the situation in
Iran.”
Iran’s nuclear program, which Washington insists is designed to
develop nuclear weapons, has been one of the thorniest issues in
U.S.-Russian relations. Russia, which is building a nuclear power
plant in Iran, recently put pressure on Iran to accept more
comprehensive inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog and is now
insisting that Tehran agrees to return all spent nuclear fuel used in
the plant back to Russia.
While appreciative of Moscow’s toughened stance on Iran, the Bush
administration remains worried about Russia’s policy with its
neighbors. In particular, it is concerned about Russia’s failure to
put pressure for peace settlements on the self-proclaimed republics
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, Transdnestr in Moldova and
Nagorny Karabakh, Jones said.
She said these four regions would be discussed at the summit. “It is
in Russia’s interest for these areas — whether it is Transdnestr,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Nagorny Karabakh — to be stable, for
corruption to end there, for criminal secessionists who rule there to
be removed,” she said.
Washington intends to encourage other former Soviet republics
neighboring Russia to engage in NATO’s Partnership for Peace Program
and the EU’s new Neighborhood Policy, Jones said, singling out
Ukraine as a priority. “We are looking forward to finding ways to
strengthen Ukraine’s integration into Europe and the transatlantic
community,” she said.
The United States and the EU threatened to slap sanctions on Ukraine
if it upheld the results of the Nov. 21 presidential election, which
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and other
international observers declared unfair and flawed.
Jones even summoned the Russian ambassador to explain why Putin had
congratulated pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych in the
election. Yanukovych lost a repeat of the election in December.
Jones on Thursday was careful not to mention Russia’s role in the
Ukrainian election or warn it against putting pressure on other
former Soviet republics where elections will be held this year. She
did say, however, that the parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan and
Moldova need to be fair and free.
While presenting a rather lengthy list of the issues that will be
discussed by Bush and Putin, Jones said she was unaware of any plans
for the two to sign any official documents. “This is a summit that is
primarily focused on intellectual discussion. We don’t need to sign
documents to prove that we have a relationship.”
The heaviest security measures in Slovak history are planned for the
summit, Slovak Interior Minister Vladimir Palko said Wednesday. He
said some 5,500 Slovak policemen and 400 firefighters will be on
duty.

BORDERLINE MONITORING
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
14 Jan 05
On January 11 the OSCE mission held monitoring to the east of the
border between the armed forces of Nagorni Karabakh and Azerbaijan
near the settlement Marzili. At the NKR emplacement the monitoring was
conducted by the coordinator of the OSCE Tbilisi office Imre Palatinus
(Hungary). The group included the field assistant of the personal
representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Alexander Samarsky
(Ukraine). No cases of breaking of the cease-fire were reported. On
the NKR side the monitoring mission was accompanied by the
representatives of the NKR ministries of defence and foreign affairs.
AA.
14-01-2005
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

NKR PRESIDENT’S DECREE
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
14 Jan 05
By the decree of the NKR president Arkady Ghukassian the NKR Ministry
of Development of Industrial Infrastructures and Building was
re-organized into NKR Ministry of Regional Governance and Development
of Infrastructures and NKR Ministry of Building. Boris Alaverdian was
appointed minister of building. Armo Tsaturian was appointed NKR
minister of regional governance and infrastructure.
AA.
14-01-2005

DEMOGRAFIC SITUATION OF NKR IN 2004
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
14 Jan 05
In 2004 2095 children were born in the Republic of Nagorni Karabakh,
increasing against 2003 by 37 or 1.8 per cent. Against 2003 birth rate
increased in Stepanakert by 1.7 per cent, Hadrout by 18.6 per cent,
Martouni by 7.2 per cent, Kashatagh 1.2 per cent. In 2004 14.3
children were born at a ratio to 1000 people against 14.1 in 2003. The
natural growth of the NKR population totaled 789 people, decreasing by
4.5 per cent or 37 persons from 2003. In the Republic of Nagorni
Karabakh the number of registered marriages totaled 798 increasing
from 2003 by 122 or 28 per cent. Against the previous year the number
of marriages increased in all the regions except for the regions of
Shoushi and Shahoumian.
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX for 2004.
The consumer price index for 2004 in NKR grew against 2003 by 107.5
per cent. CPI for food (including alcohol and cigarettes) grew by
109.2 per cent, consumer goods by 108.0 per cent, services 100.1 per
cent. The growth of CPI was caused by the changes of prices for bread,
fish and meat products. The CPI for December 2004 totaled 102.6 per
cent against December 2003 and 113.5 per cent against 2002.
AA.
14-01-2005

MEETING OF THE FEDERATION OF TRADE UNIONS
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
14 Jan 05
On January 12 the first meeting of the NKR Federation of Trade Unions
took place conducted by the chairman of the federation Ara
Ghahramanian. The meeting discussed the questions of confirming the
working plan of the NKR Council of Federation of Trade Unions for
2005, establishing the official newspaper and center for employment
security of the NKR Council of Federation of Trade Unions. The
director of the company `Agrochemlaboratory’ Benik Beglarian said it
is necessary to take practical steps for restoring the functions of
the trade unions in the Soviet period. According to the chairman of
the federation A. Ghahramanian, meetings have taken place with the
heads of corresponding bodies for introducing changes into the
articles on service record in the NKR law on pensions. The problem was
settled, and the law was enacted since January 1,2005, which testifies
to the accomplishment of trade unions in NKR. Benik Beglarian and Ara
Ghahramanian said, the center for employment security will operate as
a public organization and will collaborate with the NKR Ministry of
Social Security. After confirming the above-mentioned questions and
other questions on the agenda the participants of the meeting
discussed the question of establishing social and strike foundations
under the NKR Council of Federation of Trade Unions. The purpose is to
aid the socially insecure members of the trade unions who appear in
hard social conditions caused by emergencies. It is necessary to
maintain that the question of aiding the members of trade unions on
the means of the foundations with the accord or at the suggestion of
the corresponding trade union.
NVARD OHANJANIAN.
14-01-2005

MGM Mirage to Get U.S. Clearance to Acquire Mandalay (Update1)
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — MGM Mirage, the casino operator controlled by
billionaire Kirk Kerkorian, will win U.S. Federal Trade Commission
approval for a $4.8 billion takeover of Mandalay Resort Group without
having to sell any Las Vegas casinos, people familiar with the matter
said.
The combination of MGM Mirage, the world’s third-largest casino
operator, and Mandalay would create the world’s largest
gambling-resort company. The proposed combination of No. 2 Harrah’s
Entertainment Inc. and Caesars Entertainment Inc., the industry
leader, would supplant MGM Mirage and Mandalay as the world’s biggest
if the FTC approves that takeover. Harrah’s offered to buy Caesars for
$5.18 billion in July.
FTC lawyers have concluded they lack evidence that the MGM
Mirage-Mandalay combination would lead to higher room rates or fewer
promotional discounts aimed at luring customers to the gaming tables,
the people said. Together, the two companies would own almost half the
hotel rooms on the Las Vegas Strip, a four- mile stretch of Las Vegas
Boulevard between downtown and the airport.
The five-member Federal Trade Commission seldom overrules its staff.
MGM Mirage agreed to pay $71 for each Mandalay share. Mandalay shares
rose 10 cents to $70.61 as of 1:20 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange
composite trading. MGM Mirage shares rose 66 cents to $75.11.
“We are confident we will be able to close the transaction by the end
of the first quarter,” MGM Mirage spokesman Alan Feldman said. An FTC
spokeswoman didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment.
Much Competition
The FTC staff can’t refute the companies’ argument that casino hotels
on the Strip, where MGM Mirage and Mandalay together operate 10
casino-hotels, isn’t a distinct market, people familiar with the case
said. That’s because casinos on the Strip face competition from those
in downtown Las Vegas, the Bahamas, and some operated by American
Indian tribes in California and Connecticut, they said.
Las Vegas also faces competition from luxury casinos in Australia and
Macao.
To block a proposed merger, the government must prove that companies
seeking to combine would gain power to raise prices in a distinct
market.
MGM Mirage operates the Bellagio, the Mirage, MGM Grand, the Boardwalk
and the Treasure Island casino resorts on the Strip. Mandalay Resort
Group owns Mandalay Bay, Luxor, Excalibur, Monte Carlo and Circus
Circus. Mandalay, based in Las Vegas, also operates casinos in four
other Nevada cities, including Reno, as well as in Tunica,
Mississippi, and Elgin, Illinois.
State Approvals
The companies must also get approval from gambling regulators in
Nevada and Illinois. MGM Mirage’s Feldman said the company hopes to
get a February hearing before the Nevada Gaming Commission on its
application. Mandalay operates the Grand Victoria riverboat casino in
Elgin, about 40 miles northwest of Chicago.
MGM Mirage said last month it is considering selling one of two
Michigan casinos to comply with the state’s antitrust law. The
company, which originally said it would sell Mandalay’s 53.5 percent
stake in the MotorCity casino in Detroit, said it was weighing offers
for its Michigan property.
MGM Mirage, based in Las Vegas, also operates casino resorts in the
Primm Valley area 25 miles south of Las Vegas near the California
border and another in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Harrah’s and Caesars will sell four casinos for $1.24 billion in cash
to Colony Capital LLC as part of their attempt to win regulatory
approval for their combination. The companies said they would sell two
casinos in Tunica, Mississippi, one in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and
another in East Chicago, Indiana.
Last June, the FTC cleared Harrah’s $916 million purchase of Horseshoe
Gaming Holding Co. eight months after the deal was announced. The
agency required no divestitures. The takeover gave Harrah’s ownership
of Binion’s Horseshoe Casino & Hotel in downtown Las Vegas, along with
casinos in Mississippi, Louisiana and Indiana.
To contact the reporter on this story:
James Rowley at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Glenn Hall at [email protected]
Last Updated: January 13, 2005 13:26 EST
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Le Temps, France
14 janvier 2005
L’UE et la Turquie
C’est vraiment un débat central que cette possible adhésion de la
Turquie à la Communauté européenne. Elle éveille des craintes
fondées, car d’autres pays pourraient eux aussi revendiquer le
rattachement, auxquels il ne sera plus possible de répondre par la
négative. La plupart des limites naturelles de l’Europe sont mises en
cause dans ce dossier, au point qu’il devient difficile de définir
désormais son identité. Plutôt qu’une réalité géographique,
religieuse, démocratique ou historique, elle prend la tournure d’une
construction, opportuniste et volontaire. Que faut-il en penser?
En faveur d’une adhésion, on peut arguer de la nécessité d’un
recentrage géographique et culturel vers le Sud depuis l’arrivée en
masse des pays de l’Est dans une communauté européenne devenue ipso
facto très «Mittel-Ost Europa». Difficile en effet de revendiquer un
berceau méditerranéen, grec et latin, mais aussi égyptien et
assyrien, sans oublier le site religieux israélo-palestinien, tout en
affirmant s’arrêter à Athènes. Sous l’angle des relations avec le
monde arabe, voire avec le monde musulman, cette adhésion peut aussi
présenter quelque intérêt. Si l’Europe revendique des valeurs
laïques, rien ne s’oppose à ce qu’elle inclue un pays d’une autre
religion, sans compter que, de toute façon, une partie toujours plus
importante de ses actuels ressortissants est déjà non chrétienne.
Mais un des meilleurs arguments à l’adhésion serait de raffermir le
caractère laïc de la Turquie pour faire barrage à l’intégrisme, tout
comme les pères fondateurs de la CE ont prioritairement visé la
pacification durable du territoire européen après les trois guerres
mondiales qui l’avaient marqué au fer rouge. La Turquie deviendrait
ainsi à la fois un rempart et un modèle.
Malheureusement, il est doublement trop tard pour se poser toutes ces
questions. Trop tard parce qu’il n’est plus possible de dire non, au
risque de créer un ressentiment durable, voire indélébile, entre des
pays aujourd’hui amis. C’est ce qui explique le vote du 17 décembre
du Conseil des ministres européens, vote positif malgré le double
refus des Turcs, à la fois de reconnaître Chypre et le génocide des
Arméniens. Trop tard également pour qu’une adhésion porte ses fruits,
la Turquie profonde s’étant déjà trop éloignée de l’idéal laïc prôné
et instauré par Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, le gouvernement actuel ayant
été élu sous l’étiquette islamiste. A noter enfin que les Turcs se
disent favorables à l’Europe essentiellement pour des raisons
économiques, et non par attachement profond à ses valeurs
fondamentales.
Que va-t-il donc se produire? Les référendums prévus dans de nombreux
pays montreront une Union européenne au mieux partagée, au pire
franchement négative. Les Turcs qui espèrent beaucoup en l’Europe en
seront pour le moins froissés. Les relations avec eux s’en
ressentiront et une bonne partie d’entre eux pourrait alors verser
dans un islam moins modéré, plus revendicateur de valeurs opposées à
celles de l’Occident. L’Europe, qui s’est lancée imprudemment dans
cette aventure sans tenir compte de l’opinion de ses citoyens, risque
donc bien de récolter la tempête.