Insurance Day
January 24, 2005
Terrorists more likely to strike Europe than America this year
A SIGNIFICANT terrorist attack is more likely to take place in the UK
than in the US during 2005 but the commercial impact and loss of life
from any incident is likely to be far less than the World Trade
Center attack in 2001.
Strategic intelligence company Exclusive Analysis said it expects to
see Sunni extremist attacks in both the UK and the US this year. It
added that the governments of both countries would respond to a major
terrorist attack by imposing “ever-wider, and in our view less and
less relevant”, security measures.
“We feel content that our forecast is that small things are likely to
happen in the UK rather than big events,” said Exclusive Analysis
managing director Simon Sole at an International Underwriting
Association briefing in London. “The basic threat is not from
al-Qaeda we have new Sunni extremist movements to deal with.”
Mr Sole said the company anticipates some deaths in the UK as a
result of such an attack this year possibly at a similar level to the
Madrid train bombing in 2004. “We do not foresee thousands of deaths,
and we don’t see billions of pounds of damage,” Mr Sole said.
Mr Sole also warned of continuing concerns over the “chaotic”
situation in Iraq. “I know some underwriting is taking place to a
limited extent in Iraq. We tend to have a negative view about that,”
he said. “The key point is that the US’s so-called ‘nation-building
effort’ is very flawed, as the US military does not have the skill
set within it to do that sort of work. We are also quite sure the
elections which are coming up very soon would make matters
significantly worse rather than better.” Mr Sole said US president
George Bush’s policies in the Middle East have shown few signs of
creating any long-term progress, although 2005 is unlikely to see
more overt confrontation. The US is unlikely to bring things to a
head in countries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria until at least
2006, he said.
“Invading Iran is an outrageous proposition,” Mr Sole said,
explaining that the Iranian nuclear programme is dispersed over
around 70 sites, with the important ones very much protected and
often under ground.
He added that more economic and political activity is expected
against Syria than elsewhere, and if sanctions were extended against
Syria this would be a “significant matter” for underwriters.
Risks remain present in the Americas, Mr Sole said. “Political risks
in Brazil have probably receded, while civil unrest risks in Brazil
have probably increased.” Colombia faces risks as fiscal deficit is
expected to widen against an uncertain political backdrop. “It is
somewhere you need a lot of information to underwrite safely,” he
said.
“Political risks in Venezuela have gone up and underwriting is
primarily affected by shifts in the legal environment,” Mr Sole
explained, with a land distribution programme that shows “echoes of
Zimbabwe” likely to prove a significant problem.
Elsewhere, Azerbaijan and Russia are areas facing notable political
risk. Relationships between Azerbaijan and Armenia are “potentially
explosive” and Mr Sole said political risks in Azerbaijan are likely
to be higher this year than last. Russia is expected to engage in
intensive counterterrorism efforts, which will involve incursions
into the Caucasus to eliminate renegade Chechens, antagonising
neighbouring states, particularly Georgia. Exclusive Analysis expects
Chechens to manage at least one significant attack in 2005, although
not on the scale of Beslan.

Sunday Times (London)
January 23, 2005, Sunday
Felix Aphrahamian (1914-2005)
by David Cairns
I got to know Felix Aprahamian, who died last week, when I began
writing for The Sunday Times in the 1970s. As number-two music
critic, 1948-89, Felix had the job of rounding up, in a few hundred
deftly turned words, the events of the week not covered by the main
review. Felix was the ideal person to do it: he knew everyone and
everything. Not that he was ever a familiar public figure. One of
that remarkable band of musical Armenians, he operated, very
effectively, behind the scenes. The average music-lover would have
had no idea how important he was as middleman. As teenage secretary
of the Organ Society, Felix arranged for Messiaen and Durufle to come
here, and thereafter energetically promoted them. French music and
the organ were his great loves.
The blind organist Andre Marchal left him his chamber organ in his
will; it was installed in the family house in Muswell Hill where
Felix spent most of his 90 years. There -or in his fabulous
Japanese-style garden with its famous tree, against which Poulenc
once relieved himself -Felix would preside over a company of friends
and acquaintances, delighting in showing them his vast collection of
scores, many autographed by their composers. But though he loved
telling you what he had done and was a wonderful gossip, he was not
bigheaded. He once told me Beecham had him to dinner only because Sir
Thomas’s friends had been driven away by the interminable monologues
of his wife. I don’t doubt Beecham appreciated Felix as the original
he was. He was the most kind and considerate of colleagues and
critics, but he had a mischievous side. His profile of Sir Malcolm
Sargent -“Flash Harry” to the musical profession -caused more than
one rehearsal to break up in laughter, as a member of the orchestra
insisted on reading out: “… quick as a flash. Harry him though we
may …”

GrandPrix, NY
Jan 24 2005
Midland – where does the money come from?
The Midland Group, the new owner of Jordan Grand Prix, seems to be
rolling in cash, at least that is how it looks when one examines the
impressive list of acquisitions it has made in the last three years.
The Midland empire is said to have revenues of $2bn a year but as it
is registered in Guernsey, where confidentiality laws are still
strict, there are no actual details of its financing.
Midland is run by chairman, 36-year-old Alexander Shnaider, a Russian
who grew up in Israel before emigrating to Canada, where he now has
citizenship. According to The Toronto Star, after graduating from
university in Canada Shnaider went to work for an international
trading company in the Ukraine. At the time when the old Soviet Union
was breaking up and when Ukraine emerged as an independent country
there were some extraordinary opportunities for entrepreneurs.
Shnaider told the Canadian newspaper that the steel mills in the
Ukraine were without customers at the time and so he and his partner
Eduard Shifrin did a deal with one of the steel companies to sell
steel and pay the companies back after the deals had been finalised.
This unusual arrangement was such a success that Shnaider and Shifrin
made sufficient money to buy control of Zaporozhstal, Ukraine’s top
steel company, when it became a joint stock company in January 1997.
Gaining control of Zaporozhstal helped the two men to become hugely
wealthy in the years that followed and funded Midland’s growth. The
company has also benefited in the last two years from surging steel
prices which have resulted from huge extra demand from China. Midland
diversified into steel-trading activities through Midland Resources
Holding Ltd and Midland Industries Ltd and then into the scrap metal
trade via a number of companies including Dan Recycling, the largest
scrap processing operation in Israel. The firm also went into steel
warehousing with businesses in Turkey, Britain, Serbia and Poland.
This was followed by the establishment of two shipping companies:
Midland River-Sea Shipping and Midland Shipping.
In addition Midland has added to its holdings ownership of the port
of Pancevo on the Danube and a copper and brass mill in Serbia. It
bought the national electricity distribution company of the Republic
of Armenia but is already to looking to sell that because of
opposition to the deal within Armenia.
Since the start of 2003 Midland has invested heavily buying the Red
October steel works at Volgograd in Russia, Montenegro’s Niksic metal
company, the Kremenchug steel casting company in the Ukraine, there
has also been the Dneprodzerzhinsk Railcar Foundry and the
Donetskprodtorg trucking company. It has also bought Gumaplast, a
producer of rubber and plastic weatherseals for the automotive
industry in Serbia.
The company enjoys close links with the Moscow municipal government
in Russia and has developed the Arbat Business Center in Moscow and
is also involved in a big project to build overpasses throughout the
city, each combining business, entertainment and shopping areas. In
addition the firm has a deal until 2019 to operate containers for
selective collection of municipal waste and will use these to
advertise as well as collect rubbish. It has also recently signed a
deal with Moscow to turn an old metal processing center in the
Shabolovka district of the city into a housing development with
condominium-style apartment blocks.
In addition to all of this Midland has bought a meat-processing
company and a bakery chain in Serbia not to mention a number of
hotels and restaurants in Belgrade including the Hotel Kasina, the
oldest hotel in the city. There is also an involvement with US tycoon
Donald Trump in the development of a Trump International Hotel and
Tower in Toronto and another Trump-badged project in Hong Kong.
Keen to have a high profile international image, Midland has now
decided to enter F1 and it would be a surprise if some of the
companies listed above where not tapped for sponsorship. The team has
hired Boris Yeltsin Jr to work in its marketing department but will
be represented at races by a rather more western management,
involving Colin Kolles as managing-director. Kolles is the driving
force behind Kolles Racing and TME Racing, two contenders in the
Formula 3 Euro Series. The marketing director will be Christian
Geistdoerfer, a former World Rally Championship co-driver, who won
World Championships with Walter Rohrl in 1980 and 1982 before
starting up an event management agency. In addition the company will
feature Gary Anderson as technical director.

Canada NewsWire (press release), Canada
Jan 24 2005
Fairouz in Concert
MONTREAL, Jan. 24 /CNW Telbec/ – Fairouz, the Lebanese Diva of Arabic
music will be in Montreal on February 12 and 13, 2005 to present two
exceptional concerts at Place des Arts, Salle Wilfrid-Pelletier.

On her third visit to Montreal, 50 musicians of international fame,
conducted by Maestro Karen Durgaryan will accompany Fairouz. Mr.
Durgaryan has directed the Armenian Philharmonic Orchestra and the
Symphonic Orchestra of Yerevan, to high levels of success and
perfection, and has equally worked with Fairouz in her concerts in the
Middle East, adding to her wide and varied repertoire even more
refinement. Fairouz’s repertoire is constantly evolving, whether it’s
ballads and classic songs composed by the Rahbani Brothers, or
oriental jazz flavours of her son, the great composer, Ziad Rahbani.
Karen Durgaryan has recently accompanied Fairouz in her concerts,
where he was capable of bringing Western harmony to the varied music
styles and melodies performed by Fairouz. The program for the Montreal
concerts marries a marvelous mix of classic and modern songs with a
mélange of western and eastern orchestrations that stay away from the
oft-used concept of fusion. What the audience will experience with
Fairouz is a musical extravaganza of the best kind.
Fairouz in concert is not just music and performance, but the
heavenly and unique voice of the mythical Diva. It’s the Rahbani
Brothers entire wealth and power of music and the improvisational
talents of Ziad Rahbani. It’s the orchestra, the chorale, the quality
of the sound and the lighting systems. It’s a winning rendez vous
with happiness and a moment of absolute musical ecstasy to be
cherished forever.
For further information: Media Relations: John Asfour,
[email protected]; Source: Media Centre – Founoun, (514) 334-0909,

AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Jan 24 2005
PARTIES WANT TO DEVELOP COOPERATION
[January 24, 2005, 17:22:38]
On January 24, the parliamentary delegation of Bulgaria met with
members of Azerbaijan-Bulgaria friendship group at the Milli Majlis
(Parliament) of Azerbaijan.
Deputy Elton Mammadov spoke of the history of friendly ties between
Azerbaijan and Bulgaria, pointed to the role of Heads of State in
development of bilateral relationship, dwelt on the political and
economic reforms successfully implemented in the country and touched
on the causes and bitter consequences of the Armenia-Azerbaijan
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Head of the Bulgarian delegation Ramzi Osman thanked for the
hospitality and detailed information, and especially mentioned the
role of national leader of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev in development of
the relationship between the two countries. He noted that Bulgaria is
very interested in cooperation with Azerbaijan, and the goal of the
visit is to discuss and role of parliaments in development of the
bilateral cooperation.
The parties then exchanged views on prospects of trade and economic
cooperation, widening the exchange of experience between the two
countries’ legislative bodies and other issues.

Transitions Online, Czech Republic
Jan 24 2005
Unwanted Brotherly Aid

by Anna Hakobyan, TOL correspondent
Armenia bucks the trend and sends troops to Iraq, to the chagrin of
Iraq’s Armenian community.
YEREVAN, Armenia–Other countries may be pulling their troops out or
thinking of doing so, but there is one country–Armenia–that is
doing the reverse: On 18 January, Armenia sent troops to Iraq for the
first time.
Yerevan’s small contingent of 46 noncombat servicemen will operate in
the Shiite city of Karbala and the nearby town of al-Hila in a
multinational division headed by Poland–which is itself cutting its
number of troops in Iraq and thinking of pulling them out entirely.
Most of the Armenian servicemen will drive military trucks, while 10
sappers will bring experience gained from de-mining Armenia’s border
with Azerbaijan after the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, a former
part of Soviet Azerbaijan that is now controlled by ethnic Armenians.
The unit may be small, the mission strictly “humanitarian,” and the
deployment long in the offing (Yerevan promised Washington a year ago
that it would deploy troops), but the decision has spurred
significant controversy in a country that is not only close to the
conflict, but also has a sizable diaspora within Iraq.
The results of a Vox Populi opinion poll published on 12 January
showed that 60 percent of Armenians are against sending troops to
Iraq, and only 6 percent are in favor.
Those divisions were reflected in the parliament when, on 24
December, it voted in favor of the deployment. The leading opposition
alliance, Artarutyun, broke a 10-month boycott of the parliament to
vote and found that it was joined in opposition by a member of the
three-party ruling coalition, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
Party (Dashnaktstyun). The motion was carried by 91 votes to 23.
Even the deputy defense minister, Yuri Khachaturov, afterwards went
on record as saying, “I am not delighted with the decision to send
our troops there or with the war in general.”
“If Armenian servicemen were sent to Karabakh to protect their home
country, I would understand this,” said one of the leaders of the
Artarutyun bloc, Aram Sargssian, “but I cannot understand seeing off
Armenian servicemen with fanfare to a country that is in a war for
its independence, its own interests.”
While that that statement highlights deeper questions about the
United States’ campaign in Iraq, the main concern for Artarutyun and
Khachaturov–and for much of the public–is the possible threat to
the community of 20,000 to 28,000 Armenians living in Iraq.
In August, an Armenian church was one of five churches bombed in a
wave of attacks on Iraq’s Christian community. Two Armenian churches
were among the targets in subsequent attacks in October, November,
and December. At the same time the Armenian troops were deployed, the
dangers for Christians were highlighted by the 17 January abduction
of Basile Georges Casmoussa, the Roman Catholic archbishop in Mosul.
(He has since been released.)
The fear is that the deployment will add fuel to the flames. Iraq’s
Armenian community itself has been urging the Armenian government not
to send troops to Iraq, believing it will immediately result in
attacks on Iraqi Armenians. Artarutyun’s Sargssian believes the
effects of the deployment are already apparent. “In the United Arab
Emirates, Lebanon, and Syria, anti-Armenian sentiment is already
emerging,” he told the daily Aravot on 21 January.
Similar concerns were factors in Yerevan’s initial decision to remain
on the sidelines after the 2003 invasion. The government came out
neither in explicit support of nor opposition to the U.S.-led war.
WHY THE CHANGE?
Ministers have been quite open in explaining why the government has
changed its position. After the parliamentary vote, Prime Minister
Andranik Margarian told the newspaper Haiastani Hanrapetutiun that
“Armenia’s presence is primarily symbolic and for political
purposes.” The major supporter of the move, Defense Minister Serzh
Sargssian, has argued that the deployment is needed if Armenia is to
develop its military cooperation with the United States.
It is also a preventative measure designed to avoid isolation, as
Azerbaijan and Georgia already have troops in Iraq.
While seeking to maximize the geopolitical benefits, the government
has sought to reassure the Armenian public, stressing repeatedly that
the deployment is “humanitarian” in character.
Washington-based security analyst Richard Giragosian believes the
government’s calculations are accurate and that the deployment
“offers significant geopolitical gains for Armenia.”
“One lesson for tiny Armenia from [11 September 2001] was the need to
seize the new opportunities while minimizing the risks from such a
dynamic shift in international security. In the wake of 9/11, for
example, Azerbaijan was able to exploit and exaggerate its role or
entry in the war on terrorism to a much greater and more effective
degree than Armenia.”
The situation was the same prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
“Armenia was portrayed as a reluctant or even resistant nation,”
Giragosian says. “In U.S. eyes at that time, the misperceptions of
Armenian policy and the rather inaccurate image of Azerbaijan as the
new loyal ally were only strengthened by the twin perceptions of
Armenia as little more than a Russian vassal or garrison state, or as
a weak, isolated state thoroughly controlled by its Russian ‘ally.'”
“Given the participation of its neighbors, Armenia cannot afford to
abstain from strategic engagement” such as involvement in Iraq,
Giragosian believes.
However, Armenia’s contingent will remain the smallest from the
Caucasus. Azerbaijan has 150 troops in Iraq, and Georgia plans to
increase its force to 850. The Armenian contingent’s tour of service
is six months. It is unclear whether the mission would continue after
that.
Though primarily a gesture in relations with the United States, the
deployment “conforms to the overall trajectory of Armenian military
strategy” and to Armenia’s broader balancing act, Giragosian argues.
“Armenia has both participated in Russian-led war games and training
simulations within the Collective Security Treaty Organization as
well as with the U.S. and other Western states within the NATO
Partnership for Peace program,” says Giragosian.
Armenia’s borders continue to be patrolled by Russian troops, and it
retains very close political, economic, and military ties with
Moscow.
More generally, Giragosian argues that Armenia’s engagement with both
Russia and NATO and its deployment of troops to Kosovo, for example,
fits within a concerted drive to professionalize its army.
WHAT NOW FOR THE ARMENIAN COMMUNITY?
But are the Armenian Iraqis being made sacrificial lambs in Armenia’s
broader geopolitical interests? Giragosian believes that the
deployment “poses no real or new risk to the Armenians in Iraq.”
He contends that the Armenian community “has already been living in a
state of insecurity and vulnerability, which will be neither
exacerbated nor extinguished by this deployment.” He sees “the record
of attacks, violence and intimidation [as] all part of a broader
campaign by insurgents against the ethnic Christian minorities of
Iraq” and that “the deployment is both far too small and much too
marginal to result in any serious or specific anti-Armenian strategy
by the insurgents.”
In recent decades, Armenians have found themselves in the crossfire
of another civil war in a heavily Muslim country, Lebanon. There, the
Armenian minority’s pursuit and policy of neutrality generally
protected it, Giragosian says. But the situation in Iraq is nothing
like the civil war in Lebanon, he believes.
“The Armenians of Iraq, like much of the ordinary Iraqi population,
face a reality marked by a faceless insurgency, with no choice or
option of abstaining from the conflict,” Giragosian says.
Nor is the longer-term outlook good for the Armenian community. “The
future of Iraq stands between becoming a state under siege or a
failed state, neither of which offers much hope for a non-Arab,
non-Muslim minority,” Giragosian says.
;IdPublication=4&NrIssue=99&NrSection=1&NrArticle=13374
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

IranMania, Iran
Jan 24 2005
Iran-Armenia Labor ties reviewed
LONDON, Jan 24 (IranMania) – Labor and Social Affairs Minister Nasser
Khaleqi and his Armenian counterpart Aghvan Vardanian called for the
expansion of ties between the two countries in labor affairs, IRNA
reported.
Iran and Armenia have had cordial relations for many years and can
therefore increase cooperation in other areas as well.
Cooperation in employment and labor affairs, technical and vocational
training, research, and other industrial sectors can improve the
quality of goods in both nations.
Experts from the Labor Ministry are ready to hold discussions with
their Armenian counterparts, Khaleqi added.
For his part, Vardanian recalled that the two nations have had over
2,000 years of friendly relations.
He pointed out that Armenia’s labor laws have been rewritten in the
post-Soviet era and Yerevan is eager to cooperate with Iran on
employment and labor affairs.
“Tehran and Yerevan have good cooperation in energy and
transportation sector,” he added.
The two ministers also initialed a draft agreement which will be
further discussed in the coming days and if agreed, will be signed.
The two nations are also engaged in various joint industrial
projects.

ArmenPress
Jan 24 2005
17 EMERGENCIES REPORTED IN THREE DAYS
YEREVAN, JANUARY 24, ARMENPRESS: Armenian authorities reported 17
emergencies between January 21 and 23-two bodies were discovered and
15 fires put off.
On January 23 an 80-year resident of Yerevan was discovered dead
in her apartment with various degree burns on her body, but firemen
arriving at the sport found no signs of fire in the apartment. A
criminal investigation was launched into this case.
On January 21 residents of a block of apartments in Davidashen
borough called the police to say that people living in one of the
apartments did not open the door for long time. After police opened
the door they found the body of a 51-year-old woman. Police launched
investigation to clear the circumstances.
None of the 15 registered fires has caused any substantial damage,
the emergency department said.

ArmenPress
Jan 24 2005
HEALTH MINISTRY LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO IMPORTED FOODSTUFF
YEREVAN, JANUARY 24, ARMENPRESS: Armenian health ministry has
ordered a thorough investigation to find out which of imported
foodstuff contain E 216 and E 217 food conservants (preservatives),
which are found harmful to people health. Chief sanitary doctor,
Vladimir Davidiants, said Friday “appropriate measures will follow”
after the investigation was over.
Russia has banned import of food which contains these conservants.
According to Russian Ria Novosti news agency, E 216 and E 217
conservants were found in imported candies, meat products, chocolate,
different pates, instant soups and others.
The European Union has imposed a temporary ban on use of such
concervants since January 1, 2005.

Tehran Times
Jan 25 2005
Iranian, Azeri presidents call for expansion of ties
Tehran Times Political Desk
TEHRAN — Immediately after the formal ceremony to welcome Azeri
President Ilham Aliyev to Tehran, Iranian president Mohammad Khatami
and his Azeri counterpart talked to reporters at a joint press
conference in which they called for the expansion of Tehran-Baku
relations.
President Khatami said that Iran is keen on the further development
of relations with the Azerbaijan Republic.
Responding to an Azeri reporter about what Iran will do to help
resolve the Karabakh crisis, President Khatami said that Iran is
among the few countries which supports Azerbaijani national
sovereignty and territorial integrity. “Iran believes that the
Karabakh crisis can be resolved with logic and understanding between
the two parties without resorting to force.”
“I believe that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved if the two
sides seriously decide to do so,” IRNA quoted President Khatami as
saying.
He said that Iran has friendly relations with both Azerbaijan and
Armenia and is ready to mediate between them to help resolve the
crisis and also hopes for an immediate settlement of the Karabakh
conflict.
Another Azeri reporter asked Khatami whether there is any similarity
between occupation of the Arab lands by the Zionist regime and
occupation of Karabakh by Armenia, the Iranian president said that
Iran condemns occupation with the use of force by any country.
“Still, there is a difference. I believe Israel has occupied the
entirety of Palestine and has also established an illegitimate
existence, but Armenia is a country itself. But at the same time,
occupation and seizure of even an inch of another country’s territory
should be condemned, and the international community should help end
that occupation,” President Khatami said.
President Aliyev told reporters that his visit to Iran is aimed at
developing relations in all fields including the economy.
He pointed to the accords President Khatami has signed during his
visit to Baku and said the Azerbaijan Republic calls for
implementation of these accords.
The Azeri president added that Tehran-Baku relations are developing
rapidly and political and economic cooperation is excellent.
“The exchange of visits by the presidents of both countries indicates
the great extent of relations that we both enjoy,” President Aliyev
said. MS/DJ