Institute for War & Peace Reporting
Feb 9 2005
Opposition Still Boycotting Armenian Parliament
President’s supporters appear unconcerned as two factions continue
boycott in support of a referendum to oust him.
By Mariam Levina in Yerevan (CRS No. 273, 09-Feb-05)
As Armenia’s parliament opened for business on February 7, the
opposition declared an extension of its now year-long boycott.
The two opposition factions, Justice and National Unity, first
announced a walk-out in February last year after the National
Assembly turned down a proposed change to the law that would have
allowed a nationwide referendum to be held on Robert Kocharian’s
presidency.
Using a confidence referendum as a tool to oust the president has
long been a goal of the opposition alliance, which controls just 24
of the 131 parliamentary seats. The opposition claims that Kocharian
won the 2003 presidential election, and his supporters swept the
board in a parliamentary poll the same year, only by fixing the
results.
Viktor Dallakian, a member of the Justice group, told IWPR that the
opposition would not back down since the Armenian supreme court
ruling had ruled in favour of a referendum.
“Given that parliament was elected through rigging, our participation
can have no real meaning,” he said. “But if people think they can
exploit us as a mere decoration, to show that the Armenian parliament
has an opposition, then they will not succeed.”
“There can be no talk of ending the boycott as long as the reasons
for it are not removed,” said Stepan Demirchian, a leading opposition
figure who heads Justice.
“To this day, those who falsified the presidential and parliamentary
elections have not been punished. Neither have those who beat
peaceful demonstrators in April last year. This clearly shows that it
is the authorities who stand behind all the lawlessness.”
Demirchian said that his allies would still take part in vital
debates, as they did when parliament was voting on whether to send a
small contingent of troops to Iraq.
The opposition is prepared to debate matters such as constitutional
issues, but more than 40 other bills, some of them authored by the
opposition itself, may end up being ignored.
The pro-government speaker of parliament, Artur Bagdasarian, remained
optimistic, calling 2005 a year of “parliamentary accord”.
But disagreement has already arisen even in those areas which all
parties are in principle happy to debate.
Just before the spring session opened, Justice and National Unity
made it clear they were prepared to debate a proposed set of
constitutional reforms, but said they wanted to see changes to
national and local government and the court system placed top of the
agenda.
The ruling coalition saw this proviso as an ultimatum. “We don’t need
any favours from them,” said Republican faction leader Galust
Saakyan. “Constitutional reform is of national importance. The
opposition must make up its own mind whether or not to take part.”
Demirchian defended the opposition’s stand, insisting there was no
ultimatum.
He described the ruling coalition’s current plans for constitutional
reform as worse than a package of proposals that was rejected in a
2003 referendum.
The parliamentary opposition shows no sign of letting up on its
boycott of day-to-day legislative business.
But according to political analyst Aleksandr Iskandarian, head of the
Caucasus Media Institute, the current opposition is so weak that “a
fundamentally new movement must be established”.
Talks are now under way on a new opposition bloc that would bring
together Armenia’s first post-Soviet foreign minister, Raffi
Ovanesian, former premier Aram Sarkisian, and Ovannes Ovanesian,
chairman of the Liberal Progressive party. Ovanesian says the idea is
to create a pro-Western coalition.
For the established opposition, Demirchian says talk of new alliances
is just hot air, and he denied that his colleagues are in disarray,
saying, “the bloc has been and is functioning, and it is in a
position to accomplish the tasks facing it”.
Aram Karapetian, leader of the New Times party, believes Armenia has
neither an opposition nor a true ruling coalition, “There is a
president who more or less carries out his obligations, and there are
the people who live far away.
“Between them there’s a vacuum which so far no one has been able to
fill – not the government and not the parliament.”
If Karapetian is right in suggesting the established political
groupings – pro- and anti-president alike – are unresponsive to their
electorate, few observers are predicting that this could lead to a
popular uprising resulting in regime change of the kind seen in
Georgia and more recently Ukraine.
“There is no revolutionary situation in Armenia and it is senseless
to talk about it,” Mger Shakgeldian, the deputy chairman of the
pro-government Country of Law (Orinats Erkir) party, told IWPR.
The leader of the pro-government faction Dashnaktsutyun, Levon
Mkrtchian, said there could be “no velvet revolution in Armenia,
because there aren’t the conditions for it”.
Mariam Levina is a journalist at the independent Arminfo agency.
–Boundary_(ID_oSJ2HuyHMS7Kzu09WLJijA)–

AZERI NGOs AGAINST US ASSISTANCE TO KARABAKH
PanArmenian News
Feb 10 2005
10.02.2005 16:06
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A range of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) of
Azerbaijan have addressed the US State Department calling the US
Government not to provide financial assistance to Nagorno Karabakh.
The message says that the US Government providing financial
assistance to “the self-proclaimed unit” causes serious concerns of
the Azerbaijani society. The message says that such a move “can be
considered as protection of separatism and disrespect of the laws of
Azerbaijan.” It should be reminded that for the first time in the US
draft bill for fiscal year 2006 the Bush Administration mentioned
Nagorno Karabakh as a separate item – not as part of either Armenia
or Azerbaijan. It should be noted that the US plans to provide $5
million to Nagorno Karabakh as humanitarian assistance. Nagorno
Karabakh is included in the “Eurasian region” section, the total aid
volume to which makes $48.5 million.
–Boundary_(ID_WHlF4S9D7Ee/N6yTISLkdg)–

RUSSIAN TEMPORARY CHARGE D’AFFAIRES IN AZERBAIJAN DID NOT LIKE
VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY STATEMENT OVER KARABAKH
PanArmenian News
Feb 10 2005
10.02.2005 13:13
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Vladimir Zhirinovsky is not entitled to express the
official stand of Russia, stated Temporary Charge d’Affaires of
Russia in Azerbaijan Peter Burdykin when commenting on the statement
of Vladimir Zhirinovsky over the opportunity of the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic accession to the CIS. As emphasized by Burdykin,
Zhirinovsky’s words merely represent the opinion of one of the
deputies of the State Duma of Russia. In Burdykin’s opinion,
Zhirinovsky regularly makes such statements “to attract attention to
himself.”

ARKA News Agency
Feb 10 2005
Armenia to appoint trade representatives to EU and USA
On Feb 16 RF Foreign Minister to arrive in Armenia with two-day
official visit
The date of RF President Vladimir Putin’s arrival to Armenia to be
discussed with RF Minister of Foreign Affairs
In the end of February inflation in Armenia makes 2% – Armenian
Finance and Economy Ministry
*********************************************************************
ARMENIA TO APPOINT TRADE REPRESENTATIVES TO EU AND USA
YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. Armenia will appoint trade
representatives to EU and USA, RA Government press office told ARKA.
The decision was made in accordance to the law on diplomatic services
and decision of the Government on approval of trade representatives
of Armenia and their regulations. L.D. –0—
*********************************************************************
ON FEB 16 RF FOREIGN MINISTER TO ARRIVE IN ARMENIA WITH TWO-DAY
OFFICIAL VISIT
YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. On Feb 16 RF Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov will arrive in Armenia with two-day official visit, RA MFA
told ARKA. The visit is continuation of intensive political dialogue
between the two countries and follows the goal to deepen cooperation
of MFAs and cooperation between Armenia and Russia in different
directions. Press release notes that it is the first official visit
of Lavrov in Armenia. In the frames of the visit Lavrov will meet
with political administration of Armenia. The parties will discuss
wide range of issues related to current agenda and perspectives of
strategic cooperation between the countries, namely political,
trade-economic, science-educational and cultural cooperation.
The parties will discuss perspectives of development of cooperation
between Armenia and Russia in international structures and issues of
CIS activity and reorganization of its bodies. It is also planned to
discuss issues related to oncoming visit of RF President Vladimir
Putin in Armenia. L.D. –0–
*********************************************************************
THE DATE OF RF PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN’S ARRIVAL TO ARMENIA TO BE
DISCUSSED WITH RF MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. The date of RF President Vladimir
Putin’s arrival to Armenia will be determined during the visit of RF
Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov to Armenia, according to RA
Minister of Foreign Affairs Vartan Oskanian. He noted that Putin
accepted the invitation of the President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan
“and soon his visit will take place”.
To note, the visit of Lavrov to Armenia is planned on February 17. In
the framework of the visit it’s planned to discuss the agenda of the
relations of the two countries. A.H. –0–
*********************************************************************
IN THE END OF FEBRUARY INFLATION IN ARMENIA MAKES 2% – ARMENIAN
FINANCE AND ECONOMY MINISTRY
YEREVAN, February 10. /ARKA/. In the end of 2004 the inflation level
in Armenia was 2% at the annual 7% inflation, as Armenian Finance and
Economy Minister Vardan Khachatryan stated on the press conference.
In his words, the fact that inflation was possible to manage was
result of coordinated tax-budget and monetary policy that promoted
dropping of loans interest rate. He particularly mentioned that the
interest rate in commercial banks dropped to 18.7% that had direct
impact on improvement of investment climate in the country. In his
words, amount of state investments in 2004 made AMD 74b that were
directed to infrastructure development, irrigation system,
rehabilitation of schools etc. Also, as Minister mentioned, in 2004
the policy of stimulating of inflow of foreign investment thru
privatization of state enterprises (1$ – AMD 473.55). T.M. –0–
*********************************************************************
–Boundary_(ID_r9MWSb2TKKeM0Muul+USRQ)–

Radio Free Europe, Czech Republic
Feb 10 2005
Georgia: Saakashvili Ready To Extend ‘Friendly Hand’ To Putin
Mikheil Saakashvili (file photo)
10 February 2005 — Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili today said
he is ready to mend fences with Russian President Vladimir Putin,
provided Moscow agrees to compromise on outstanding issues.
Addressing the inaugural meeting of the Georgian parliament’s spring
session, Saakashvili today assessed the state of his country, one
year into his mandate.
Touching on foreign policy, the Georgian leader described ties with
neighboring Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey as “idyllic.”
Russia, however, remains a different story. But Saakashvili said that
could change — if Moscow adopts a more compromising attitude on the
countries’ disputes.
“On these conditions, I am ready to go again to Moscow,” Saakashvili
said. “I am ready to meet again with [Russian] President [Vladimir]
Putin and extend the hand of friendship to him. This hand,
unfortunately, has been hanging in the air since we met about a year
ago.”
Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have been strained by a number
of issues, including what Russia says is Georgia’s support of Chechen
separatist fighters.
Shortly after his election in January 2004, Saakashvili visited
Moscow with pledges to give bilateral ties a fresh start. He offered
to set up joint patrols and checkpoints along the Chechen section of
Russia’s border with Georgia, to ensure that separatist fighters
could not use the South Caucasus country as a safe haven.
Relations began to improve, with Georgian security forces discreetly
extraditing a number of Chechen fighters to Russia. Last spring,
dozens of Moscow businessmen traveled to Tbilisi for the first
Russian-Georgian economic forum.
But tensions began to return last summer, when Saakashvili dispatched
troops near and in Georgia’s separatist republic of South Ossetia,
officially to combat local contraband rings.
The move triggered a weeklong series of deadly skirmishes that
threatened to reignite the 12-year-old Georgian-South Ossetian war.
Russia, which has supported South Ossetia since it gained de facto
independence, blamed Tbilisi for the renewed tension. Shortly
afterward, Moscow renewed accusations that Georgia is sheltering
Chechen fighters.
Moscow and Tbilisi also remain at odds over the fate of Russia’s two
remaining military bases in Georgia.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has
repeatedly asked Moscow to honor a 1999 commitment to vacate its
Georgian bases.
Russia says it will take at least another decade to complete such an
expensive and logistically complex move.
The Kremlin fears Georgia, which has set its sights on eventual NATO
membership, may one day use the Russian bases to host Western troops.
But Saakashvili today reiterated an earlier pledge that no foreign
soldiers will be stationed on Georgian soil once the Russians depart.
“There are certain principles all [Georgian] political forces and
parties must agree upon,” he said. “These principles are those of
Georgia’s European integration and the absence of foreign military
bases on its territory.”
The Georgian president also warned that anyone opposed to those
objectives would be prosecuted.
“All those parties that will say Georgia should not move along the
path towards European integration, and that it should not seek
membership into those European institutions we want to join, all
those parties that will say foreign military bases should be deployed
on our soil and that foreigners should be allowed to interfere in the
development of our country — either militarily or in any other way
— all those political parties must be automatically outlawed,”
Saakashvili said.
It was not immediately clear which parties or groupings Saakashvili
had in mind.
(Compiled from wire service reports.)

Christian Science Monitor
Feb 10 2005
Calm before the Chechen storm?
Rebels urge Russia to peace talks before Feb. 22 cease-fire deadline.
By Fred Weir | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
MOSCOW – A surprise unilateral cease-fire ordered by two top Chechen
rebel commanders has Moscow abuzz with debate. Experts are asking, is
it a genuine chance for peace, a PR stunt, or an artificial lull
before a fresh storm of Beslan-style terrorist assaults?
Few see much hope of ending the Chechen war, now well into its sixth
year, unless there is a political breakthrough that sees the Kremlin,
the separatist rebels, and pro-Moscow Chechen forces sit down
together to seek a settlement.
President Vladimir Putin appears determined to stay his chosen
course, which involves signing a treaty with the Kremlin’s handpicked
Chechen leader Alu Alkhanov – perhaps as early as this May – that
will lock Chechnya into Russian permanently. But amid reports that
the rebels could have acquired a nuclear device or radiological
weapons, many experts see only an escalating cycle of violence in the
offing.
“The situation in Chechnya is currently at a dead end,” says
Alexander Iskanderyan, director of the independent Center for
Caucasian Studies, in Yerevan, Armenia. “The key to its solution is
in the Kremlin, but I see little hope of change there.”
Aslan Maskhadov, Chechnya’s rebel president-in-hiding, called
attention this week to the self-imposed cease-fire, which had been
announced last month on a rebel website but went largely unnoticed.
He portrayed the move as an olive branch to get peace negotiations
started, and urged Russian leaders to take up the offer to talk
before the cease-fire expires on Feb. 22.
“If our Kremlin opponents are reasonable, this war will end at the
negotiating table,” he told the Moscow daily Kommersant, in a rare
interview published Monday. “If not, blood will continue to be
spilled for a long time but we will reject any moral responsibility
for this continued madness.”
The cease-fire was endorsed by Shamil Basayev, the notorious Chechen
field commander who has claimed responsibility for many terror
strikes against Russia, including the 2002 seizure of 800 hostages in
a Moscow theater and last September’s school siege in Beslan that
left 331 people dead, half of them children. In an interview
broadcast by Britain’s Channel 4 News this month, Mr. Basayev
declared: “We are planning more Beslan-type operations in future
because we are forced to do so.”
That threat gained ominous traction this week when self-exiled
Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky said a “Chechen businessman” had once
offered to sell him a miniature nuclear weapon stolen from former
Soviet stockpiles. “It is a portable nuclear bomb,” Mr. Berezovsky
said. “Some part of it is missing at the moment, but these are small
details.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry quickly denied that, saying that all
Soviet-made “suitcase bombs” are accounted for. But independent
experts say Chechen militants may well have the means to produce a
“dirty bomb,” with deadly radioactive materials wrapped around
conventional explosives. “They probably don’t have a real nuclear
weapon, but we know they have had access to radioactive substances in
the past,” says Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based security expert.
“This threat is very real. A dirty bomb could make part of a Russian
city uninhabitable for 100 years. We may expect anything after the
cease-fire ends.”
Though the Kremlin has not responded to Mr. Maskhadov’s peace
overture, pro-Moscow Chechen leader Mr. Alkhanov said the only issue
he is willing to discuss with rebel leaders is their surrender.
“Negotiations with those who have engaged in bloody crimes against
society are absolutely out of the question,” he said. “The only real
salvation for such people is to give themselves up and confess their
crimes.”
There is doubt about whether the cease-fire, which was to take effect
Feb. 1, is holding. Russia’s official ITAR-Tass agency, which usually
reports peace and order prevailing in Chechnya, quoted Russian
commanders Thursday saying there have been up to 20 rebel attacks
each day this week.
Some experts say that Maskhadov, elected in Chechnya’s only
internationally recognized polls in 1997, no longer controls rebel
forces and is a fading force. “Maskhadov is just one of the leaders
of the Chechen resistance, and not even the strongest,” says Mr.
Iskanderyan. “[The cease-fire] may be just an attempt to show he’s
still relevant.”
But 17 prominent Russian human rights activists issued a statement
Wednesday warning that Chechnya was turning into an “eternal
conflict” and urging the Kremlin to take up the offer for
negotiations as “practically the only way of stopping Chechnya’s
transformation into yet another front in the confrontation between
radical Islam and Western civilization.”
The pro-Moscow Chechen government insists that reconstruction of the
war-torn republic has made great strides, though there is little
independent information. At a Moscow press conference this week,
Alkhanov said the treaty being drafted will settle the conflict by
granting Chechnya some economic autonomy “within the federal
constitution.”
But according to Malik Saidulayev, a Moscow-based businessman and
Chechen community leader, there is no security, order, or prospect
for peace in Chechnya.
The Kremlin’s “policy of Chechenization of the conflict has failed
and the situation in the republic has grown much worse,” he says.
“The war is not ending, it is spreading to the rest of the Caucasus
region.”
–Boundary_(ID_aMMM7rJDXeUy9/5gCkHrYw)–

RUSSIA AS A DEMOGRAPHIC MELTING POT
RIA Novosti, Russia
February 10, 2005
MOSCOW, February 10. (RIA Novosti)-The decline in Russia’s
economically active population in the next 15 years will seriously
restrict the country’s economic growth. Russia’s workforce is
contracting due to fewer residents with Russian roots from the CIS
and Baltic countries coming to resettle in Russia, writes a weekly
magazine, Itogi.
According to Yury Dyomin, the first deputy director of the Federal
Migration Service, his department issued registration documents to
over 100,000 foreign citizens in 2004 as part of a program to attract
foreign workforce. The largest CIS workforce suppliers are Ukraine
(36,152), Moldova (14,137) and Armenia (4,793).
The official believes that it would be ideal for Russia if
representatives of indigenous Russian ethnic groups came to the
country. However, this is hardly possible today. At the same time,
the country is traditionally a multi-ethnic state and “Russian
society has always been able to absorb other peoples in its melting
pot.”
Illegal migration is a particularly acute problem for the country.
Various estimates put the number of illegal immigrants in Russia
today at between 1.5 million and 15 million. Therefore, Mr. Dyomin
believes his department’s objective is to create conditions for
legalizing the larger part of this workforce.
This is difficult to do because the number of the documents that CIS
citizens must present to enter Russia has been recently cut from 18
to 5 to comply with international norms.
In the past 12 years, over 8 million Russians from other CIS
countries and the Baltic states have come to live in Russia. To step
up this process, the possibility for migrants to feel comfortable in
Russia must be sealed legislatively. Apart from that, conditions have
to be created to encourage migrants to settle in regions that need
manpower, for example, Siberia and the Far East.

AZERI MF CONSIDERS BAKU CAN RETURN “SEIZED TERRITORIES” THIS YEAR
PanArmenian News
Feb 10 2005
10.02.2005 14:56
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov holds the
opinion that official Baku will have the possibility to return the
“occupied territories” this year. “However, favorable attitude of the
other conflicting party is necessary for it”, he said

AZERI FM TO DISCUSS ARMENIAN GENOCIDE WITH HIS TURKISH ASSOCIATE
PanArmenian News
Feb 10 2005
10.02.2005 14:44
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Azeri Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mamedyarov
is going to discuss the issue of the Armenian Genocide and the
Armenian-Turkish relationships with his Turkish associate Abdullah
Gul. Besides, the parties are scheduled to consider the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict.

“QARVATCHAR CAN BY NO MEANS BE HANDED OVER TO AZERBAIJAN”
Azg/arm
11 Feb 05
Davit Babayan, 32, is a political analyst from Stepanakert with a
masterâ~@~Ys degree in international relations of Central European
University in Budapest and American University of Armenia. He
was participant of a number of conferences on Caucasian issues in
Moscow, Sofia, Warsaw, Hungary and Austria. He is author of around
50 scientific publications.
– Davit, you were accompanying the OSCE monitoring group during its
mission in territories under Nagorno Karabakh forcesâ~@~Y control. You
said in Qarvatchar that that region should by no means be handed
over to Azerbaijan because of its geopolitical location and its
water resources.
– Qarvatchar can be considered one of the vital territories securing
Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia. Mountainous landscape makes it ideal
for defense. Besides, the most important rivers of Armenia, Tartar,
Khachen, Arpa and Vorotan originate here. Arpa and Vorotan are the
only guarantee for Sevana Lakeâ~@~Ys viability. Passing this territory
over to Azerbaijan will mean giving it a powerful weapon for putting
pressure on Artsakh and Armenia. Baku has already practiced such a
policy in 1970s and 1980s that resulted in upsurge of new diseases.
Nagorno Karabakh was leading in the number of people affected with
those infections in the South Caucasus. Besides, Baku constantly
proclaimed that Armenians bury nuclear waste in Qarvatchar. If they
take hold of the territory they may poison our water resources blaming
the alleged nuclear waste that Armenians buried.
– Davit, the monitoring group accomplished its technical mission. What
do you think may the possible developments in Karabakh issueâ~@~Ys
resolution be after the report on situation?
– Things may develop in various directions as neither the conflicting
sides nor the international institutions will show identical
approach to it. I would divide the possible developments into
outer and inner. Itâ~@~Ys not excluded that there will be outside
forces trying to put certain points of the report against us. They
will use the tactics of dragging humanitarian issues to political
sphere. For instance, after being convinced that there is no state
policy of inhabiting the territories supervised by Karabakh and
that thousands of people living there are refugees from Getashen,
Shahumian, Martakert, Baku and elsewhere, these forces will manipulate
the fact that hundreds of thousands Azeris live in tents and demand
that those people return. Such demands certainly will not help
conflictâ~@~Ys regulation. But I think that this approach will not
dominate international community. The work of the monitoring group
and the conditions Nagorno Karabakh creates will have a positive
impact on the republic, proving once again that Nagorno Karabakh is a
democratic and free state. This is an immensely important moment that
will surely play into our hands. As to inner developments, societies
in both Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh may make their demands to
the authorities. Our society may demand that a state program of
inhabiting the liberated territories elaborated and realized. And
the Azerbaijani society may demand that Baku puts more pressure on
international circles in the issue of refugees.
– Do you think it possible that the international community will
force Armenia and Karabakh to return part of the territories at least
since there are no Armenian settlers and no inhabitation is in process
while thousands of Azeris suffer hardship?
– I donâ~@~Yt think that the international community will force
Nagorno Karabakh to hand over any territory. The issue of territories
is political and is linked with Karabakhâ~@~Ys status.
– Azeri press was arguing lately that the US might use the territory
of Karabakh in case it attacks Iran. Do you think it possible?
– I think that such talks are political manipulations targeting at
aggravating Armenian-US and Armenian-Iranian relations. Even if there
is a military action between America and Iran, the US will use its
air force. In this view, the territory of Karabakh cannot be used as
there is no runway there. Any overland operation also seems unlikely
as the width of Arax River in Karabakh is 65-110 meters, depth â~@~S
1.1-1.8 and the current reaches 1-2.5 meters per second. Besides,
the Iranian border at this location is mountainous and there are many
strategic hills. From this perspective, Azerbaijanâ~@~Ys territory
is better for the US.
By Tatoul Hakobian
–Boundary_(ID_n+Sv/Eeg5JEXVYBGzhpGCA)–