The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 15 2004

Georgia’s demographic woes
By M. Alkhazashvili

Civil confrontation, ethnic conflicts, economic collapse, a leap in
unemployment and many other negative factors have led to many
Georgians to leave the country in the last fifteen years.

The census conducted in 2002 shows that within the territory under
Georgia’s jurisdiction (excluding separatist Abkhazia and South
Ossetia) 4,361,000 people live, some 431,000 less than in the 1989
census.

The situation is worse if the 162,000 refugees who left the
separatist-controlled territories are taken into account. Urban
population decreased by 7,000 and rural population by 323,000.

Experts estimate that approximately one million people – or one in
five of the population – left the country because of the developments
in Georgia in the 1990s. These were mainly young people – the
educated, qualified sector of the population – meaning that the
population left behind has become older and older.

Many of those to leave were of Abkhaz ethnicity: the number of Abkhaz
in Georgia, including Abkhazia, has halved and is now about 45,000 –
42,000 of whom live in the separatist republic, and the rest in
different regions of Georgia. Around 50,000 Abkhaz live abroad,
mainly in Russia.

The number of Ossetians has also halved. There are currently 84,000
in the country, including 46,000 who live in Tskhinvali controlled
territory. 79,000 Ossetians now live abroad, again, mainly in Russia.

Other citizens of non-Georgian ethnicity have also left the country.
Of the 341,000 Russians who used to live here, only 100,000 remain;
while people of Armenian origin now number 281,000, a decrease of
155,000. The number of Azeri leaving the country is lower – around
22,000 – leaving 284,000 in the country.

Although there are social reasons for such an exodus, for the most
part the high number of emigrants is due to economic reasons.
According to official statistics, there are some 620,000 registered
unemployed people in Georgia, 33 percent have a University education
and 75 percent of whom live in urban areas. 40 percent are under
thirty and 22 percent have had no permanent job since the beginning
of the 1990s.

Parliament is shortly to adopt the new Tax Code and law on financial
amnesty, and it is hoped that this will provide a boost to the
economy, and that as a result the hemorrhaging of the Georgian
population will be brought to a halt.

The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 15 2004

Misunderstandings of strategic partnerships

The Georgian-Azeri strategic partnership, centered on coinciding
political and economic interests of the two countries, is considered
to be one of the central tenets of Caucasus politics. But this
relationship has recently faced some very public disruptions.

Confusion between Georgian and Azeri officials emerged when
Azerbaijan’s customs inspectors began increased inspection of
Georgian cargo. They suspected that part of this cargo was bound for
Armenia, and soon Georgian businesses were complaining they faced
detrimental delays in shipping from Azerbaijan. Soon afterwards, the
Georgian media speculated that Azerbaijan is beginning to suspect
that the new Rose Revolution government is in fact friendlier towards
Armenia.

But concerns more volatile than railroad cars have also emerged. On
December 3, an elderly ethnic-Azeri woman was killed when she and a
group of armed protestors converged on a large farm to demand the
right to use the land. Then last Wednesday, December 8, special
forces from the Financial Police raided the village Vakhtangisi
bordering Azerbaijan in the same Marneuli region in an effort to
crack down on smuggled goods.

A spokesman for the Financial Police told Rustavi-2 that the village
was known as the ‘capital of contraband.’ Despite protesting
residents who even temporarily held captive some officers, the
Financial Police seized goods valued at GEL 5 million and took them
to the Lilo Customs checkpoint for inspection.

Azerbaijan responded to all of these issues. An Azeri union of NGOs
launched an appeal to President Mikheil Saakashvili demanding that
Tbilisi protects the rights of local ethnic Azeris. Speaker of
Azerbaijan’s national assembly Mili-Majlis Murtuz Aleskerov expressed
his discontent with the fact that over 500,000 Azerbaijanis reside in
Georgia, but that they are not employed on the construction of the
BTC oil pipeline. “Georgia should understand that its future income
as a sovereign state will depend on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipelines,” Aleskerov declared at a session of
the Mili-Majlis on Tuesday, December 7.

He added that a special commission of four Mili-Majlis MPs has been
created to investigate these issues in Georgia, including land
distribution in the Marneuli region. As part of this investigation, a
delegation from the Azeri government visited Georgia early this week.

In Georgian circles, the Azeri reaction was seen as an over-reaction
by a neighboring country. “I advise to my Azeri colleagues to be more
careful with such issues. I think this subject is being deliberately
stirred up. Azerbaijan’s authority is misinformed,” stated the head
of Georgia’s committee on foreign relations MP Kota Gabashvili, as
quoted by the newspaper Akhali Taoba.

Over the past year, the Georgian and Azeri governments have
demonstrated high levels of cooperation. Both countries’ ministers of
education have traveled to visit ethnic minority regions (i.e.
Georgia’s Lomaia has visited ethnic Georgians living in Azeribaijan,
and vice versa) and brought with them ‘native language’ text books
and teaching materials.

For both countries, the issue of ethnic minorities is a sensitive
issue that requires the emergence of an idea that citizenship is
based on geography and not ethnicity. This is a difficult task for
the Caucasus region where ethnicity and heritage are patriotic
buzzwords.

But there are also signs the two countries are politically astute
enough to deal with the current events through other means. Georgia’s
president replaced his representative in the Shida Kartli region and
President Aliev of Azerbaijan stated on Friday that there are and
will be no problems along the Georgian-Azeri border.

Recently a Georgian delegation participated in the ceremonies
commemorating the first anniversary of death of President Heidar
Aliev. The representatives of both countries stressed upon the fact
that Georgia and Azerbaijan are strategic partners and they will not
deviate from the direction of close partnership and friendship. With
BTC set to go online in the coming months, they will have even more
motivation to do so.

The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 15 2004

Tbilisi’s shuki shortage

A combination of problems causes city-wide blackout, and industry
spokesman warns of similar problems to come
By Keti Sikharulidze and James Phillips

Tbilisi experienced a city-wide blackout on Tuesday, with important
facilities including the metro, airport, and hospitals all losing
light for several hours during the evening.

The blackout was due to the loss of the Aragvi 220 kilovolt
transmission line into Tbilisi, which as Director General of the
Georgian State Electrosystem Joe Corbett told The Messenger, was the
result of a number of problems.

Corbett explained that a joint on the Aragvi line blew as a result of
overloading, which was itself due to the disconnection on Sunday
morning of one of the two automatic transformer boxes, ‘AT 4’ at
Gardabani, which transfer electricity from the high voltage 500 KV
lines across Georgia to the 220 KV line, owing to a defect.

“When we lose a transformer we have no backup,” Corbett says, adding
that because of a lack of maintenance over the last fourteen years,
the Aragvi line sometimes struggles to cope with levels of
electricity that theoretically it should have no problem with, as was
the case on Monday.

The autotransformer was reconnected on Tuesday evening, although PR
officer of the Ministry of Energy Teona Doliashvili notes that the
transformer will be disconnected again this weekend for scheduled
testing.

In the meantime, Tbilisi should receive a normal electricity service,
at least until another fault appears, but the GSE General Director
says that this is unlikely to be long, because the electricity system
is in such a bad state of repair, and the money to rehabilitate the
system is not available. “Georgia wants a transmission system that it
is not willing to pay for,” he complains.

Corbett says that the loss of the Aragvi line was just one of a
multitude of inter-related problems faced by Georgia’s electricity
system over the weekend.

Imports of electricity from Armenia were suspended until Sunday
evening owing to a fault on the Alaverdi line, on the Armenian side.

For several days until Sunday night, one of the units at the Enguri
hydroelectric power station was disconnected owing to another
breakdown.

There were also problems over the weekend with the high voltage
Imereti and Kavkazioni lines which transmit electricity from Enguri
and Russia.

The combination of all of these problems meant that even more
electricity had to be transferred to Tbilisi along the Aragvi line,
resulting in the city-wide blackout on Monday.

Despite the problems, however, Deputy Energy Minister Aleksandre
Khetaguri told Imedi he believes that “the emergency situation will
become better in the near future and Tbilisi will receive the same
energy once the AT 4 transformer has been repaired.”

The lack of electricity, meanwhile, has led to twice as much gas
being consumed as usual, causing a drop in pressure in the gas
system.

Interfax
Dec 15 2004

OSCE to send monitoring mission to Nagorno-Karabakh

Baku. (Interfax-Azerbaijan) – The Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe will send a monitoring mission to Nagorno-
Karabakh to check reports from Baku about Armenia’s plans to
establish settlements in the area, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov told journalists in London.

“The main thing is to define the format of this mission and the date
of arrival. We would like it to begin as soon as possible,”
Mammadyarov said.

An agreement to organize a monitoring mission was reached with
Armenia during talks between the Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers
in Sofia and Brussels in early December, he said.

The co-chairman of the Minsk Group directly settling the Nagorno-
Karabakh problem should join the monitoring mission, he said.

Mammadyarov urged Armenia to assume a constructive position in the
talks. “On the one hand we are conducting talks, but on the other
Armenia is building illegal settlements in the occupied territory. If
this continues, there cannot be any talk about serious negotiations,”
he said.

He welcomed the agreement with Armenia to continue the negotiating
process.

Azerbaijan lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh in a bloody conflict
with Armenia in the 1990s.

Norwich Evening News, UK
Dec 15 2004

Burning body: Yarmouth man charged

A 27-YEAR-OLD Great Yarmouth man has been charged with murdering a
man whose body was found burning in a field two years ago.

Nisham Grigor Bakunts was yesterday charged with murdering Hovhannes
Amirian (known as Sako) on December 20, 2002 in King’s Lynn.

Bakunts was remanded in custody by Norwich Crown Court. He will
appear again at the court for a plea and directions hearing on
February 4.

The body of 42-year-old Mr Amirian was found in the fields between
Upton and Wansford in Cambridgeshire in December 2002. Mr Amirian,
who was also known as Gevorg Galstian, had family connections in
Ukraine and Armenia and an estranged wife and son in Belgium.

A cyclist discovered his body in the early hours of December 21 2002.
He had been set on fire and a post-mortem examination revealed he had
also been shot and stabbed.

Police worked to identify Mr Amirian for nearly a year following the
discovery of his body.

He was finally named at an inquest in January and buried in an
unmarked grave at Eastfield Cemetery, Peterborough last year.

Macedonian Press Agency, Greece
Dec 15 2004

THE EU SUMMIT OPENS TOMORROW
Athens, 15 December 2004 (13:08 UTC+2)

The consultation on the European Council Summit to get underway
tomorrow and expected to define Turkey’s European future, is in full
progress in Brussels.

Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis in a statement to Turkish news
agency Anadolu reiterates Greece’s support to Turkey’s European
prospect stressing, however, that the country should respect
international law and the European acquis.

Meanwhile, France will raise the issues of the Armenian genocide and
Cyprus.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that his country
will not accept new terms imposed by the EU, while the head of the
Turkish diplomacy Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul asked for a date for
the opening of EU accession negotiations for Turkey in 2005.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Interfax
Dec 15 2004

Talks on Nagorno-Karabakh entering second stage

Yerevan. (Interfax) – Problems in negotiations on ways to settle the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been
settled and the talks will soon enter their second stage, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian told a news conference on Tuesday.

The talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in
Prague in 2004 produced joint proposals “which may provide a basis
for further talks on Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said.

These proposals were presented by the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents at the Astana summit of the Commonwealth of Independent
States.

“However, Azerbaijan has put the Prague process under threat by
submitting a draft resolution on Karabakh in an attempt to pass the
Karabakh process from one international organization [the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] to another,”
said Oskanian.

“Due to the mediation of the co-chairmen of the OSCE’s Minsk Group on
Nagorno-Karabakh, problems in the talks have been settled and we are
planning to meet with the Azerbaijani foreign minister again at the
beginning of next year,” Oskanian said. The date and place of the
meeting have not been chosen yet, he said.

Oskanian said that in matters pertaining to the Karabakh settlement,
he is more optimistic than Armenian President Robert Kocharian.

Azerbaijan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a bloody conflict with
Armenia in the 1990s. Settlement of the problem is proceeding within
the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by Russia,
France and the U.S.

Bloomberg
Dec 15 2004

Turkey Urged by EU Parliament to Boost Democracy (Update1)

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — Turkey should strengthen human rights, curb
corruption and limit the army’s role in politics to win European
Union membership, the European Parliament said in endorsing the
opening of talks to admit the bloc’s first mostly Muslim member.

The parliament in Strasbourg, France said today that EU membership
wouldn’t be guaranteed during negotiations with Turkey that may last
more than 10 years. Other possible outcomes include a “privileged
partnership” urged by politicians in EU nations including France.

“The Turkish authorities still have to adopt and implement further
reforms and put current reforms into practice,” the 732- seat
assembly said in a non-binding resolution. EU leaders will decide
when and under what terms to start entry talks with Turkey at a
two-day summit in Brussels starting tomorrow.

The parliament serves as a barometer of European attitudes toward
Turkey, which would transform the 25-nation EU by joining. The
country borders Iraq, Syria and Iran and its population of 70 million
people is larger than the combined population of the 10 mainly
Eastern European countries that joined the EU this year.

The European Commission recommended in October the opening of talks,
which may boost the Turkish economy and contribute to Middle Eastern
stability. The commission, the EU’s executive arm, also proposed an
“emergency brake” to halt the process should Turkey stray from the
bloc’s political and economic roadmap.

Timetable

Turkey pressed the EU’s national government heads to authorize the
start of talks with no new conditions.

“We don’t expect a condition we cannot accept, but if such a
condition is forced upon us, we won’t accept it,” Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters at Ankara airport today before
flying to Brussels. “We will put this thing in the refrigerator then
and move on with our lives.”

Erdogan is counting on the prospect of membership to boost foreign
investors’ confidence in the Turkish economy, helping bring down
unemployment and the costs of financing $220 billion in debt.

“The opening of negotiations will be the starting point for a
long-lasting process that by its very nature is an open-ended
process,” said the EU parliament.

Lawmakers expressed concerns about “hundreds” of reported cases of
torture in Turkey over the past two years, religious discrimination,
corruption that “seriously affects economic, political and social
life,” and the military’s influence over the government.

Cyprus

The parliament said it was also concerned about the presence of
30,000 Turkish troops in northern part of EU member Cyprus, divided
since Turkey invaded the Mediterranean island three decades ago.

The northern Turkish-speaking region, whose government is recognized
only by Turkey, remains outside the EU because the Greek-speaking
southern part rejected a United Nations-backed unification plan
earlier this year.

The EU assembly objected to Turkey’s refusal to recognize Cyprus.
This concern is a potential obstacle to the start of talks and was
echoed by Commission President Jose Barroso.

“If you want to become a member of a club, isn’t it normal to
recognize other members?” Barroso said in a parliament floor debate.

Turkey may resolve this problem by signing a protocol extending an
association accord with the EU to Cyprus, a Dutch diplomat told
reporters in Brussels. EU leaders will probably agree to start talks
in the second half of 2005, a German government official told
reporters in Berlin.

Germany, France at Odds

The prospect of Turkish membership has split the EU including
traditional allies Germany and France. Germany’s Social
Democratic-led ruling coalition wants talks to start next year with
membership as the sole goal, while France’s right-of-center
government wants a minimum one-year delay and a reference in the
negotiating mandate to a possible result falling short of accession.

A poll by market researcher Ifop for Le Figaro newspaper showed that
67 percent of French respondents and 55 percent of Germans oppose
Turkey’s candidacy. Ifop surveyed 4,813 people in Germany, France,
Italy, Spain and the U.K. from Nov. 25 to Dec. 3. The company gave no
margin of error for the survey.

Politicians including France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, the former
right-of-center finance minister who may run for president in 2007,
have expressed opposition to Turkish membership. They cite the
financial cost of accepting a nation where production per person is
about a quarter of the EU average and a loss of the bloc’s political
and cultural identity.

Unemployment

Turkey had unemployment of more than 10 percent at the end of 2003
and inflation topped 50 percent for 20 of the past 30 years. By 2025,
it would eat up about 16 percent of the EU’s 100 billion euro ($133
billion) annual budget, according to the commission.

With higher birthrates than EU countries such as Germany and France,
Turkey could also gain more voting clout in the EU than existing
members have.

EU parliament members who oppose Turkish membership failed to push
through amendments to the resolution mentioning the need for an
alternative to accession, Turkey’s “Asian” character and the EU’s
“Christian roots.”

Members concerned about human rights succeeded in adding an amendment
calling for a formal acknowledgment by Turkey of its responsibility
for the massacre of Armenians in 1915. The amendment calls on the
commission and the EU’s national governments to demand that Turkey
recognize the “genocide.”

Pressure Point

“We need to exert pressure and make sure Turkey knows what needs to
change,” said Dutch Conservative EU lawmaker Camiel Eurlings, who
steered the resolution through parliament. The assembly approved it
by a vote of 407 to 262 with 29 abstentions.

Turkey’s ties with the EU began with a 1963 trade accord that the
bloc suspended during subsequent periods of military rule in Ankara
and encompass a customs union created in 1995. Turkey formally
applied for membership in 1987 and was given candidate status in
1999.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Jonathan Stearns in the Brussels bureau at
or [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Catherine Hickley at [email protected].

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Zaman, Turkey
Dec 15 2004

The Worrying Developments of the Debate in France
by Didier Billion
Deputy Director of IRIS

It is often said that the debates over Turkey’s application for
membership into the European Union (EU) reveal the fact that the
European project has come to a standstill and that they reflect a
lack of vision from its leaders. This remark is quite relevant but
does not explain why this issue has become so impassioned and
exacerbated in France. It is therefore necessary to assess the
reasons for such agitation, because many European observers are
having difficulties understanding why a country which has in recent
history shown Turkey real and frequent political support should have
these concerns.

Many analysts suggest that one reason for France’s reluctance could
be a result of religious matters. Although this case is acceptable,
it only partially reflects the complexity of this issue. It is
otherwise difficult to understand why other members of the European
Union, with strong religious beliefs, such as Spain, Italy and
Poland, are as far as they are concerned rather favourable to the
prospect of Turkish membership. When one considers the worrying
progression of Islamophobia in France, it is obvious that the
religious dimension explains, in part, some of the tensions. In
reality, the religious issue meets with such a negative response due
to the French political structure.

In France the Front National, a right wing extremist party, has grown
over the years and now obtains 15 to 18% of the ballots. This party
is followed closely by an affiliated faction of sovereignists, which
obtains 4-10% of the votes. These two political trends have made the
refusal of Turkey’s membership one of the main lines of their
political stance. They would try to make you believe that what is at
stake is the protection of a Christian West. The fact that such
totally idiotic remarks should be uttered in the homeland of the
Enlightenment, of the French Revolution and of human rights, shows
just how distressing the decline in standard of the political and
intellectual debate has become …

But worse can perhaps be found elsewhere! Opposition to Turkey’s
accession took a turn for the worst and spread among the ranks of the
right wing’s majority when Nicolas Sarkozy used it as a lever in his
fight with Jacques Chirac. One could then witness the UMP (i.e. Union
for Popular Movement, the largest French conservative party) members
changing sides and swinging over to the cons. The right wing parties
have therefore used Turkey’s issue as a strategic tool in the
political fight for purely mean electoral motives. The right wing
leaders chose an issue, which was supposed to curb the growing weight
and progress of the Front National while, they wrongly believed, at
the same time soothing the fears of part of the political opinion.
Such a populist drift clearly does not do justice to the historical
stakes involved in Turkey’s entry into the E.U. One can then
legitimately wonder about the second-rate quality of political
officials who prefer to feed what they believe to be fears generated
by the construction of the European Union, rather than drawing
constructive and stimulating prospects for the future in order to
strengthen the E.U. One also ought to consider the fact that some
leaders of the Socialist party are not doing any better to set
themselves apart. Although one must acknowledge the fact they do not
use the religious issue as a political tool, they are nonetheless
embarking on a kind of demagogic spiral, intensified by the Armenian
lobby’s pressures, known for its influence on some socialist
representatives.

Fortunately, contrary to this politicking abuse of the debate, the
State, and in particular the presidency of the Republic and the
ministry of Foreign Affairs, brings credit on itself by firmly
maintaining its stance, by giving its policy long term perspective,
and by underlining the advantages for the E.U to integrate Turkey at
the end of the negotiating period.

Such a drift was in fact possible in France because of the existence,
in the background, of a favourable environment as regards to the idea
itself of the European construction. This vision comes from a
fundamental contradiction regarding the issue of the E.U’s future and
the role France intends to have. Paris considers that it must play a
central role in the European process and that the E.U. ought to
reflect its own values, models and ways of life. Yet, with the
ongoing enlargement of the European Union, this stance becomes less
and less relevant. This explains how the French identity crisis, in
the face of the other European countries, is taking such a
considerable role in Turkey’s chances of accession. If France was
convinced to keep its central position in the E.U. it would be less
inclined to see Turkey’s application as an Anglo-Saxon plot aimed at
weakening its own vision of Europe. It is worrying to note that today
Turkey fills this particular need felt by some countries to form
their identity against the other and it is unbearable that she should
bear the brunt. Inopportunely it really seems that in the aftermath
of September 11, 2001, Islam has become the epitome of “Otherness” in
the French collective unconscious.

The debate about Turkey’s membership must be dignified and
dispassionate because it deals with the future of Europe and its role
in the future world.

(IRIS = Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques –
Paris)

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

United Press Int’l, US
Dec 15 2004

Analysis: Turkey’s moment of truth

Date: Wednesday, December 15, 2004 8:50:21 AM EST By CLAUDE SALHANI,
UPI International Editor

ANKARA, Turkey, Dec. 15 (UPI) — In all probability, next Friday,
Dec. 17, will be the most important date for Turkey since Mustafa
Kemal — or Ataturk — founded the modern Turkish Republic in 1923,
following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

No other event since then is likely to alter the lives of Turkey’s 70
million people to that extent. The impact of Turkey’s accession to
full EU membership will no doubt be gradual, but it will affect
multiple aspects of Turkish life, such as the economy, trade and
eventually, free movement of its people within the EU.

The Turkish press speaks of a historic day, one of monumental
proportions. Indeed, there is great optimism in Turkey that on this
day the European Union will give Ankara the much-anticipated green
light, thereby setting a date for talks that will finally bring
Turkey into Europe’s fold.

This, of course, is assuming there are no last-minute snags. As the
deadline approaches, there remain a number of “Turkey-skeptics” who
would like to impose certain conditions on Turkey’s accession,
something Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan rejects off-hand.
Erdogan insists that the accession talks be initiated without any
preconditions.

Only last Monday French President Jacques Chirac rocked the boat by
saying Turkey should apologize for the Armenian genocide, something
Turkey is unlikely to do.

Additionally, Turkey refuses to be forced to recognize Nicosia; a
sensitive issue in light of the Greek half of Cyprus recently joining
the EU.

Turkey rejects the notion of “permanent safeguards” restricting the
movement of its workers to other EU countries, some of which worry of
a sudden influx of Turkish migrants.

Turkey insists on full EU membership, rejecting any second-tier
compromise. Ankara is pushing Brussels for a clear date, insisting
there should be no more delays, saying they have implemented all the
necessary changes and are more than ready to join Europe.

In fact, Turkey has already changed as a direct result of the
European Union. The Turks have moved in giant strides towards
democratization, rule of law, respect of human rights and other
demands stipulated by the Copenhagen criteria, prerequisites for
admission into the EU. These changes were implemented to pave
Turkey’s entry into the Brussels club.

In a flurry of last minute campaigning, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan shuttled around European capitals to garner support
for Turkey’s EU bid. At one such meeting in the Belgian capital last
Friday, a sort of pep rally attended by some 300 Turkish business
executives, one could not help feeling that history was in the
making. To say the air was electrifying would not have done justice
to the event.

There was a feeling among the organizers and participants — among
which Erdogan and his foreign minister, Abdullah Gull, were in
attendance — that they were on the verge of a historic beginning for
Turkey.

Dec. 17 will be the start of what is certain to turn out to be a long
and torturous road ahead for Turkish and EU negotiators. But it is
also the beginning of the culmination of a road that started some 41
years ago, the first time Turkey came knocking on Brussels’ door.

Ever since, Ankara realized it would need to make amends, accepting
the fact that it would have to transform itself into a Western-styled
democracy.

Despite occasional setbacks and periodic accusations from Brussels
and other European capitals that changes were not going at a fast
enough pace, the country did change. Many of the changes were made
since Erdogan was elected to the prime ministership, and that,
despite the fact that the ruling party — the AKP, or Justice and
Development Party — is an Islamist party.

Proponents of Turkey’s accession like to remind that Turkey has been
undergoing these changes for many years, and that it is now finally
ready to join the European family. In fact, some observers put
forward the notion that Turkey has been looking toward Europe long
before the creation of the EU — ever since the French Revolution of
1789. It was only a matter of time for it to find its natural place
with the rest of Europe. Erdogan reminded the audience in Brussels
last week that “the Ottomans were called the sick man of Europe, and
not of Asia.”

“This is not time for European amnesia,” said Pat Cox, a former
president of the European Parliament at the Brussels meeting.

“The time to say yes is now; the time to say yes has come,” said Cox.

To those who worry of a massive Turkish invasion of tens of thousands
of Turkish migrant workers flooding the European Union looking for
jobs in Paris, Lisbon or Madrid, Prime Minister Erdogan said, “Turks
will come back to Turkey once the economy improves thanks to the EU.”

This was true of Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland, countries that
have seen record high numbers of their citizens leave for jobs in
other European countries, but have returned once the economy and
standards of living improved.

Erdogan says the same will happen in Turkey. He backed up his claims
with these facts: Turkey’s exports rose to $60 billion, a 13.5
percent growth; 17 million tourists traveled to Turkey in 2004,
generating some $12.5 billion; inflation dropped from 33 percent to
10 percent, and the target for 2005 is 8 percent; Turkey’s per capita
income today stands at $4,100; and finally next January the
government will drop six zeroes from the Turkish lira, simplifying
life. A short taxi ride in town can cost 7 million liras today — or
about $6.

Until Friday, Turkey is holding its collective breath. As Pat Cox
commented, “Next week’s summit meeting is the moment of truth.”