NEW CONSTITUTION OF ARMENIA – ADVANCE TOWARDS EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
PanArmenian News Network
Aug 3 2005
03.08.2005 05:01
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ During today’s press conference UK Ambassador to
Armenia Thorda Abbot-Watt welcomed the Venice Commission’s positive
assessment of the draft constitutional amendments. According to
her, the new constitution of Armenia will become a recurrent step
towards the integration into European structures. At the same time
she noted that it is the Armenian population to decide what kind of
Constitution to adopt and what kind of country to live in. In her
words, the implementation of the Constitution is one of the most
important aspects. “Armenia should itself follow the implementation
process of the Organic Law of the country”, the British diplomat
noted. She also stressed the necessity of participation of all the
political forces in the constitutional reform process. In his turn
U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission Anthony Godfrey stated, “We support the
democratic reform in Armenia and hope that the new Constitution will
be adopted in November.” According to him, the positive assessment
by the Venice Commission is an advance, however the process is not
completed yet. “We expect the Armenian population to take part in the
constitutional debate, thus securing conduction of the referendum”,
he noted adding that the adoption of the reviewed Constitution cannot
rule out falsifications. Mr. Godfrey expressed hope that after the
parliamentary debates reasonable decisions will be taken.

UZBEKISTAN ASKS U.S. TO CLOSE AIR BASE
by Vladimir Socor
Eurasia Daily Monitor — The Jamestown Foundation
Tuesday, August 2, 2005 — Volume 2, Issue 150
On July 29, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs delivered a note
to the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent, asking the United States to vacate
the Karshi-Khanabad air base, withdraw the troops and materiel from
Uzbekistan, and terminate the 2001 bilateral agreement within 180
days. The document did not state the reasons for this demand.
The six-month deadline is broadly consistent with the timeframe
suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy
adviser, Sergei Prikhodko, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s
(SCO) July 5 summit, which orchestrated this anti-U.S. move.
Prikhodko declared, “Several months, up to a year and a half” would
be an adequate deadline for the U.S.-led coalition to close its bases
in Central Asian countries (see EDM, July 6).
Some Russian officials were quick to gloat. Defense Minister Sergei
Ivanov urged the United States sarcastically “to make up its mind:
how many years will the war in Afghanistan go on: 20, 30, or 250
years?” Professing to link the American military presence in Central
Asia solely to the operations in Afghanistan (“There is no other
reason, and none would be acceptable”), Ivanov portrayed that presence
as both ineffective and unnecessary: “There are no active combat
operations in Afghanistan, while the Taliban control a large part of
the country. Terrorist threats continue to emanate from Afghanistan,
but the Taliban don’t even bother to hide because no one pursues
them. The narcotics business keeps growing because no one lifts a
finger to deal with it.” Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the Foreign
Policy and Defense Council, echoed Ivanov’s sarcasm by predicting,
“It is probably a matter of several centuries yet before Afghanistan
fully recovers. But the situation is much better there now, so the
bases [in Central Asia] have served their purpose, the Americans can
do without the bases.” Federation Council chairman Sergei Mironov,
praising Tashkent’s anti-U.S. move, also distorted the U.S. position:
“The Uzbek authorities took an absolutely right and logical step. The
United States has said several times that the anti-terrorist operation
in Afghanistan has ended, thus it is time for U.S. forces to leave
Uzbekistan” (Interfax, July 28, 29; Russian Television Channel One,
July 30; RIA-Novosti, August 1).
The Uzbek “eviction notice,” as some commentators describe it perhaps
somewhat prematurely, was not, however, a foregone conclusion,
and might not necessarily be the final word. Even as the Uzbek-U.S.
political miscommunication had deepened through the Kyrgyz upheaval
and the Andijan violence, and Tashkent placed restrictions on the use
of the Karshi-Khanabad base, Uzbek authorities did not seem intent
on asking the U.S. military to leave the country. After the July
5 SCO summit, state-controlled Uzbek media carried over-dramatized
commentaries on alleged economic and ecological costs to Uzbekistan,
and inconvenience to local inhabitants, caused by the American air
base. But the commentaries stopped short of calling for closure of
the base. Rather, they seemed intended, however clumsily, to set the
stage for complete fulfillment, or perhaps re-negotiation, of some
of the terms of the 2001 and 2002 bilateral agreements.
The July 29 note came the day after the United States, working with
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees office in Bishkek,
arranged the airlift from Kyrgyzstan to Romania of 439 Uzbeks who had
fled from Andijan. The group included some escaped criminals and some
suspected rebels who were wanted for questioning by Uzbek authorities
as part of the investigation into the Andijan violence. Nevertheless,
U.S. officials strongly pressured Kyrgyzstan to allow the evacuation
of the entire group. Thus, Tashkent’s “eviction notice” seems to be
an instant reaction to that move.
At this juncture, however, President Islam Karimov may still be keeping
the options open for both sides. As of August 1, Tashkent had not
announced the base-closure demand in the Uzbek media. The note was
delivered to the U.S. Embassy by an Uzbek courier, not by the usual
mode of delivery through government officials, and thus decreasing the
document’s weight. Moreover, the Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Affairs’
protest note against the U.S.-arranged evacuation of Uzbek suspects
from Kyrgyzstan, published on August 1, stopped carefully short of
naming the United States. Such hints seem calculated to suggest that
Karimov prefers to avoid a rupture in the security relationship at

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM – BASIS FOR DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTES IN RA
PanArmenian News Network
Aug 3 2005
03.08.2005 04:51
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “We welcome the assessment of the Venice Commission,
according to which the reviewed draft constitutional amendments
provide for precise reform and can serve as a basis for securing the
activities of the democratic institutes in Armenia, CoE Secretary
General’s Special Representative for Armenia Bojana Urumova stated at
today’s press conference in Yerevan. Basing on the latest resolution
by the Venice Commission, Ms. Urumova noted that no considerable
changes will be introduced during the second reading. “We welcome
the good will of the Armenian leadership”, she noted. The political
majority and opposition parties of Armenia should double efforts for
securing constructive dialogue, Bojana Urumova stated. In her words,
raising of public awareness to lead Armenians to the adoption of the
reviewed Constitution on the way to the European integration will
become the next challenge.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

SPEAKER OF NKR PARLIAMENT RECEIVES GROUPS OF ARMENIAN STUDENTS FROM CANADA
ARKA News Agency
Aug 3 2005
STEPANAKERT, August 3. /ARKA/. Speaker of the NKR Parliament Ashot
Ghulyan has received a large group of Armenian students from Canada.
Welcoming the students, Ghulyan stressed that that Karabakh
people are building up an independent democratic state, and the
international community’s attitude to the country is changing day by
day. Responding to one of the guests’ question as to how he pictures
Nagorny Karabakh in ten years, Ghulyan said that “life will be better
and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic may be recognized.” In conclusion,
Speaker Ghulyan thanked the delegation for their interest in Artsakh.
In his turn, Head of the Canadian diocese of the Armenian Apostolic
Church Bagrat Galstanyan presented Speaker Ghulyan with a Bible. P.T.
-0–

TENSIONS SIMMERING IN GEORGIA’S JAVAKHETI REGION
Eurasia Daily Monitor (The Jamestown Foundation)
Wednesday, August 3, 2005
By Zaal Anjaparidze
The recent anti-terrorist operations in Georgia (see EDM July 25, 29)
have overshadowed coverage of anti-Georgian developments flaring in
Georgia’s turbulent Javakheti region, a southern area predominantly
populated by ethnic Armenians.
On July 17, Armenian residents of Samsar blocked efforts by students
and nuns from Tbilisi to help restore a local church dating to the
12th century. The Armenians accused the visitors of attempting to
“Georgianize the Armenian church.” The verbal argument deteriorated
into a brawl that left several of the Georgians severely injured. That
same day, local Armenians raided a Georgian school in the nearby
town of Akhalkalaki. The police managed to contain the incident,
but the situation in the region remains tense.
The Georgian and Armenian governments have done their best to
hush up the incident. In a July 21 joint statement, the Georgian
Orthodox Church and the Georgian diocese of the Armenian Apostolic
Church expressed regret about the Samsar incident and ascribed it to
“incorrect information circulating among the local population.” Vazgen
Mirzakhanian, bishop of the Armenian Diocese of Georgia, apologized
to the Georgian victims.
Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margarian’s impromptu visit to Georgia
on July 24-25 evidently sought to relieve the explosive situation in
the region. During his trip to Javakheti Margarian received a list of
demands from the local Armenian community to the Georgian government.
They were presented by leaders of the local civic organizations
Javakh, United Javakh-Democratic Alliance, and Virk. These groups
want the Georgian government to stop the alleged discrimination
of the Armenians, make the Armenian language the regional language
in Javakheti, stop the “Georgianization” of the region’s Armenian
cultural heritage, begin construction of a highway connecting Javakheti
with Armenia (which the Armenian government is ready to finance),
register Virk as a political party, and include Armenia’s history
in the curriculum of Armenian schools in Georgia. These Armenian
organizations insist on declaring the Armenian language as the second
state language in Georgia (home of about 300,000 ethnic Armenians)
or at least in Javakheti, and the adoption a special law on ethnic
minorities.
Margarian said that this year the Armenian government has allocated
$350,000 to support the Armenian schools in Javakheti and is ready
to increase funding if Tbilisi agrees. He also asked the Georgian
government to jointly determine the provenance of the churches in
the region, which are claimed by both religious groups.
Georgian Parliamentary Chair Nino Burjanadze told Margarian that the
provocateurs fueling enmity between Georgians and Armenians play into
the hands of the common enemy, evidently alluding to Russia. However,
there are reports that some radical Armenian organizations support
anti-Tbilisi activities in Javakheti.
Many analysts in Georgia believe that Tbilisi should handle the region
more carefully to avert new incidents. Soon after the collapse of the
USSR, some local Armenian leaders proposed political autonomy for the
region. But despite assistance from international donors to improve
the region’s socio-economic situation, the Georgian government has not
been able to find a workable solution to the problem of “Javakheti
Armenians.” That local Armenians distrust the central government’s
policies complicates the situation (see EDM, March 23, May 24).
For example, the Russian military base in the region purchased large
quantities of local produce. But local leaders doubt Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili’s proposal to feed the Georgian army with local
foodstuffs after the Russian base closes. The Armenian-populated
Akhalkalaki and Ninotsminda regions boast an agricultural yield
that exceeds the dietary needs of the 20,000-strong Georgian army by
15-20 times.
Another irritation came one day after the Samsar incident, when the
Georgian armed forces completed the large-scale “Armor 2005” exercises
at the Orfolo range near Javakheti. Georgian Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili hinted that the fictional enemy “Blue Country,” which
according to the scenario had temporarily seized a Georgian region,
was not fictional at all. “It exists for Georgia indeed,” he said.
The Georgian media accuses the Javakh, United Javakh-Democratic
Alliance, and Virk civic movements of being behind the regions’
anti-Tbilisi mood. However, Virk leader David Rstakian claimed that
these organizations have actually prevented protests by the Armenian
community from escalating to the separatism seen in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia.
Vahan Chakhalian, leader of the United Javakh- Democratic Alliance,
which unites eight youth organizations, said that the Russian military
pullout leaves local Armenians defenseless. Chakhalian and other local
leaders have openly stated that they would retaliate if Georgian units
replace the Russian troops. They also object to a government-sponsored
plan to accommodate Georgian families in the region, which they
claim would artificially “Georgianize” Javakheti. “We have yet to
see whether the Georgian army enters here,” Chakhalian warned.
Leaders of the local Armenian organizations argue that the local
authorities in Javakheti misinform Tbilisi about the real situation
in the region and the preferences of the local establishment. The
information vacuum and poor knowledge of Georgian laws by the locals,
caused by a lack of knowledge of Georgian language, is likely the root
of many problems. Giorgi Khachidze, the Tbilisi-appointed governor
of Javakheti, says that the methodology of teaching the Georgian
language needs to be improved. “The Georgian books in the Armenian
schools are getting dusty, because they don’t need them,” he said.
Meanwhile, the socio-economic problems in Javakheti are similar
to those in other Georgian regions. However, some local groups,
guided by external forces in Russia and Armenia, may be trying to
politicize these problems and prepare the ground for the region’s
eventual separation from Georgia.
(Regnum, July 18, 25, 28, 29; Akhali Versia, July 21; Resonance,
July 20, TV-Rustavi-2, July 17, Vremya novostei, July 19)

VLADIMIR PRYAKHIN COMPARED ADOPTION OF RA CONSTITUTION WITH FOOTBALL MATCH
PanArmenian News Network
Aug. 3 2005
03.08.2005 05:04
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The adoption of the new Constitution is one of the
commitments Armenia undertook at the entry to the CoE, head of the OSCE
Yerevan Office, Ambassador Vladimir Pryakhin stated during today’s
press conference dedicated to the constitution reform process. “The
current draft Constitution is closer to international standards”,
he said. He agreed with the Venice Commission on the necessity of
open debate of the constitutional amendments. As for the possible
obstacles posed by the opposition, Vladimir Pryakhin compared the
constitutional debates with a football match, where condemnation of
players and the referee is possible but own goals are absurd.

Russian paper says Azerbaijan is set to agree to accept US bases
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow
3 Aug 05
After several years of hesitation, official Baku is nevertheless
inclined to site US military bases on Azerbaijani territory.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta was told by an informed source in Azerbaijani
security structures that several dozen US military instructors are
already working in Azerbaijan, without advertising their presence.
They have identified two facilities for future bases: one on the
Apsheron peninsula, a 30-minute drive from Baku, and the other in
the south of the republic, near the border with Iran.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov’s three-day visit to the
United States, which ends today, has every chance of being epochal in
resolving this tricky issue for Baku. Moreover, strange though it may
seem, President Islom Karimov of Uzbekistan has played an important
role in expediting the US-Azerbaijani accords. By demanding that the
US Qarshi-Xonobod airbase, which the United States has been actively
using since the autumn of 2001 in order to support its antiterrorist
operation in Afghanistan, be removed from Uzbekistan’s territory
within 180 days, Karimov has forced the Pentagon to hastily seek
another springboard and a new, more reliable and predictable ally,
not necessarily in Central Asia, but at least nearby. Everything
points to Azerbaijan becoming that ally.
In the light of this, Islom Karimov has unwittingly given a downright
lavish gift to his Azerbaijani colleague Ilham Aliyev by seriously
strengthening his position in the long-standing bargaining with
the Americans.
As is well known, Washington has long been pushing the idea of
siting a military base in Azerbaijan. There remains a minor detail
– a political decision by President Aliyev to give the green light
for implementation of the idea. An informed source in circles close
to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry told Nezavisimaya Gazeta on
condition that he remain anonymous that the involvement of minister
Mammadyarov in discussing this issue “could signify that the problem
is switching to the political dimension”. In the source’s opinion,
the situation is that “the political decision required by Washington
is practically ripe, and President Aliyev will eventually agree to
siting a US military contingent in the country.” But not just for
the sake of it, but in exchange for a lessening of US pressure on
Aliyev over very sensitive issues for him concerning the observance of
democratic standards in the upcoming November parliamentary elections.
Admittedly, officially Baku is insisting that Elmar Mammadyarov, who
hastily travelled across the ocean on 1 August after an unscheduled
invitation from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, is discussing
in Washington “the widest range of issues, including the present
status of the peace talks on settling the Karabakh conflict, regional
problems, the development of interstate relations, and, finally,
the upcoming parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan.” However, most
local analysts note that the official information about the visit
carefully glosses over the point in the schedule of meetings relating
to Elmar Mammadyarov’s talks with the Pentagon leadership. However,
analysts believe, the main subject of these talks will be not only
general prospects for military cooperation between the two countries,
but also an extremely specific issue – the possibility of transferring
the US airbase from Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan. Evidence in favour of
this theory is the fact that US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is
expected to pay another working visit to Baku in the next few days.
However, as before the previous visits to Baku by the Pentagon boss,
Ramiz Malikov, the head of the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry’s press
service, is stating that he “possesses no such information”. Touching
on the prospects of the US military base being transferred from
Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan, the head of the press service again
confined himself to a routine remark: Such decisions, he said,
are made by the country’s political leadership, not the military
department. Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov also
essentially gave the same answer, telling journalists that Washington
“has not yet made any” such proposal to official Baku.
But this is not entirely true. During his “quiet and low-profile”
visit back in April at Baku’s Bina Airport Rumsfeld closely discussed
the subject of an American military presence in Apsheron with his
Azerbaijani counterpart, Safar Abiyev. It was clear even then that
the Pentagon has very specific plans in this regard. Experts from
Stratfor, the American-Israeli centre for strategic forecasts,
claimed at the time that during the initial stage the US military
contingent in Azerbaijan would act as “temporarily stationed mobile
forces”. They even named three local airbases where American fliers
will be stationed – Kurdamir, Nasosnyy, and Qala. The airstrips
there have been modernized in good time to NATO standards and are
now capable of taking all types of aircraft.
According to Stratfor’s forecasters, the US bases in Azerbaijan will
be small, and it is planned to change their contingent “according to
US military needs in the region”. According to the Pentagon’s plans,
the centre’s experts noted, these forces “can be swiftly redeployed
elsewhere to fulfil a task…and will be capable of handling several
strategic missions”.
Uzeir Jafarov, an authoritative independent military expert in Baku,
believes that the question of these mobile forces is now being
studied in detail in the Azerbaijani foreign minister’s talks at
the Pentagon. “Until now the Azerbaijani leadership has managed by
various means to avoid giving a specific answer to this proposal from
Washington. But Tashkent’s anti-American demarche is clearly spurring
both sides to make urgent decisions,” Uzeir Jafarov told Nezavisimaya
Gazeta . In his view, “during the first stage the Americans could
transfer to Baku their Qarshi-Xonobod airbase or part of it in the
form of mobile groups and thereby really make Azerbaijan an important
Pentagon bridgehead in the Afghan campaign”.
The likelihood of this development confirms that Azerbaijan has
long been part of the coalition for the antiterrorist operation in
Afghanistan. Admittedly, today this participation is confined to two
spheres: Azerbaijan has allowed its Qala airfield near Baku to be
used to refuel military aircraft transporting coalition humanitarian
freight to Afghanistan, and then sent a squad of its servicemen to
maintain order in Kabul.

Caucaz.com 04/07/2005
Post-Soviet Azeri Islam: under Turkish, Arabic and Iranian influence
By Bayram Balci
head of the Turkey-Caucasus programme at the Baku campus of the French
Institute for Anatolian Studies (IFEA)
As with everywhere else within the Soviet region, Azeri Islam has
seen a veritable resurgence since the first signs of the collapse
of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s. At that time, religion
emerged from the private, or even underground, domain, to claim a
place of its own in public life. However, its arrival in this space
had not been previously discussed with the ruling political power,
which was intrinsically very attached to the secularism passed down
from the Soviet period.
Whereas Azeri Islam had existed without any contact with the
outside world until then, relations between Soviet Islam and that
of the Arabo-Iranian-Turko world being very limited, the advent of
independence allowed it to establish contact with these three regions
and become open to all the different Islamic influences.
Shiitism in Iran, an historical influence
The way in which most of Azeri Islam belongs to duodecimal Shiitism,
predominate in Iran since the 16th century, can be explained by the
fact that Iranian influences were the first to arrive in Azerbaijan
at the start of the 1990s.
Before even establishing diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and
Iran, whose diplomats have openly worked on developing religious
exchanges between the two countries, private Iranian initiatives
had opened madrasas (schools) and sent missionaries to the main
Azeri towns, particularly in the south, to Lenkeran, Massalli and
Nakhichevan.
But above all else, since the border between the two countries was
opened, hundreds of Azeri students have headed for Iran to carry out
religious studies, especially in the holy towns of Machhad and Qom,
where hozes (Islamic campuses) welcome students from across the world.
Thanks to the efforts from both the diplomatic services and private
Iranian organisations, as well as from initiatives taken by young
Azeris, there exists today a close Islamic cooperation between the two
countries. This cooperation has meant that while Azeri Shiitism plays
a role in debating ideas that are being discussed within the Shiite
world, their integration into worldwide Shiitism has not alienated
the integration of Azeri Shiites in their own country.
Sunnism, Turkey enters the playing field
The second, and no less important Islamic influence to arrive in
Azerbaijan at the start of the 1990s came from Turkey. This influence
had a dual nature, public and private, led respectively by the State
and a succession of bodies, often linked to the brotherhood, which
went to Azerbaijan and the whole of the former USSR when the Soviet
Union began to collapse.
In Azerbaijan, it is necessary to mention three Turkish religious
tendencies, whose influences played a real role in shaping post-Soviet
Azeri Islam. In the first instance, this concerned Nakshibendis,
the representatives of the most widespread brotherhood in the Muslim
world. Two Nakshibendi leaders that were influential in Turkey,
Osman Nui Topbas and Mahmut Ustaosmanoglu, sent vekils (emissaries)
and disciples to spread ideas and the movement throughout the country.
More active than the Nakshibendis, the Nurcu are the representatives
of a movement founded by Said Nursi (1876-1960). This movement is
made up of many different forms, but just two have successfully taken
root in Azerbaijan – that of Mustafa Sungur and the more influential
form of Fethullah Gülen, a very popular religious leader in Turkey
who took voluntary exile to the United States.
The disciples of the latter have set up a vast network of private
schools in Azerbaijan allowing the movement to mobilise a modern
proselytism which many have compared to that developed by Christian
Anglo-Saxon movements.
Other Turkish Islamic tendencies have managed to take root in
Azerbaijan, but their influence is limited. All of these Turkish
Islamic currents, including that represented by the State, spread
a Sunnite form of Islam that is moderate and close, or at least
respectful of, to other mystical brotherhood traditions that are
established in the Caucasus.
Arab countries and fundamentalist Islam
The third and final Islamic influence that has touched Azeri Islam
since the start of independence is that from the Arab world. Often
called Wahhabite because of the symbiosis between this type of Islam
and the religious philosophy of Abdul Wahhab (1703-1792), this trend
considers itself as Salafist, a follower of the teachings of the
ancestors and thereby the tradition of the prophet.
This is a rigorous, puritan and fundamentalist form of Islam
that wants to establish Islam as it was during the time of the
prophet. This Islam, virtually absent during the Soviet period,
has become established in the country thanks to preachers coming
from the Arab world. These preachers came at the end of perestroika,
but mainly during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Its development was helped to such an extent by local initiatives
that it very quickly became almost indigenous to the country.
Very widespread among North Caucasian Sunnite populations, the State
does not approve of this form of Islam and has tried to stamp it out,
albeit it without much success. This Islam is today well established
in Baku and in regions with a high proportion of Sunnite, notably
Guba and Zakatala.
The changes in the relations between these three ‘Islams’ has led to a
new situation for Azeri Islam in that it is becoming more diversified
and fragmented. The State tries to monitor this evolution by managing
spiritual affairs. The State is doing neither a bad job nor a good job
of this, which is mainly controlled by a new body for the regulation
of Islam that was set up in 2001. This body, the State committee for
religious affairs, seeks to encourage a synthetic form of Islam, that
is not too Shiite, nor too Sunnite and that is an official Islam in
the service of the State. This is an ambitious aim and difficult to
achieve as, although they want to create a national form of Islam to
serve the state, the political authorities still refuse to provide
any religious education in state schools.
(Translated by Victoria Bryan)
–Boundary_(ID_Ri5ffLdmSpYCIqs+o7azLQ)–

Alcatel Serges on Triple Play
By Ray Le Maistre
Unstrung.com
07.28.05
Alcatel (NYSE: ALA – message board; Paris: CGEP:PA) delivered better
than expected second-quarter numbers this morning, with CEO Serge
Tchuruk saying that the second half of the year was shaping up to be
even better as revenues from triple-play deployments help the vendor’s
wireline division reclaim some lost ground (see Alcatel Up in Q2).
Revenues of [email protected] billion (US$3.8 billion) were “way above forecast,”
said Tchuruk, and the earnings per share of $0.17 exceeded analyst
expectations of $0.15. Those numbers, increased guidance for the year
— annual revenue growth of between 5 and 8 percent, instead of the low
single digits — and bullish talk about prospects for the second half,
all helped to send the vendor’s share price up by [email protected], 5 percent,
to [email protected] ($12.31) on the Paris bourse.
And analysts are positive, too. Richard Windsor at Nomura Holdings Inc.
says he has “little difficulty in keeping Alcatel as our favourite
stock in the sector.” In a research note issued today he stated this
was “a solid set of results which, combined with the increase in
guidance, should be well received by the market.”
In amongst the welter of statistics and numbers were some interesting
snippets about broadband spending trends, Alcatel’s ongoing success in
the mobile infrastructure market, and its growing presence in the IP
routing market with its 7750 service router, courtesy of the Timetra
acquisition (see Alcatel & TiMetra Seal the Deal).
And, of course, there was the usual tour de force from Tchuruk,
who loves to comment on every question asked, whether it’s asked of
him or not. And he likes to tell it like it is. When asked about the
potential for M&A among the sector’s major equipment firms he stated,
“Everyone wants to see consolidation, but everyone wants someone else
to pay for cleaning up the industry and having the pain of a major
acquisition. I’m not pursuing a massive consolidation for Alcatel as a
way forward,” he added, putting to rest any lingering questions about
a merger with Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU – message board).
Fixed-line recovery in H2
While the CEO was the main speaker on today’s call, Mike Quigley,
the vendor’s president and COO, and the perceived heir to Tchuruk’s
throne, was given far more airtime than usual, and he took on many
of the questions related to the fixed-line equipment division, which
saw its revenues fall to [email protected] billion ($1.5 billion) compared with
[email protected] billion ($1.6 billion) a year earlier.
The dip had been expected, said Tchuruk, but a recovery is expected
in the second half of the year as Alcatel “sees the benefits of the
wireline upgrades” being undertaken by large carriers such as SBC
Communications Inc. (NYSE: SBC – message board), BellSouth Corp. (NYSE:
BLS – message board), and China Telecommunications Corp. (NYSE: CHA –
message board).
Quigley noted that deployments of next-generation access equipment
based on triple-play service strategies had “accelerated in the
first half of the year and will gather momentum in the second half
of the year. We hardly have a wireline customer that isn’t talking
about triple play, and we see IMS architectures being built on top
of network infrastructures built for video.”
He added: “It’s not just about access equipment. This is about optical
equipment, too, and one reason we acquired Native Networks was because
we wanted Ethernet capabilities in our OMSN [optical multiservice node]
range.” (See Alcatel to Buy Native for $55M.)
Both Quigley and Tchuruk talked up the company’s growing IP router
business. “The 7750 is very popular, and we now have more than 60
references, including SBC, China Telecom, France Telecom, and BT’s
21CN. The revenues from IP routing will be significant this year,
about ~@200 million [$243 million),” said the CEO, noting that BT’s
21CN project wasn’t yet delivering any revenues.
Quigley added that Alcatel had “shipped 200 7750 routers to France
Telecom in the first half of the year,” which were being used as the
IP edge routers for the carrier’s IPTV service rollout.
Tchuruk said this deal was won late in 2004 but that FT, which one
analyst on the call described as a “Cisco shop,” hadn’t wanted it
publicized, and that Alcatel was the only IP edge router vendor
involved in the rollout. “We are the only one — there is no Cisco,”
the CEO intoned.
In the DSLAM market, Quigley said the latest quarter had been slow
in North America, but, despite that, the company had shipped a record
5.9 million lines worldwide in the second quarter. “We expect to see a
pickup in DSL sales in North America in the second half of the year,
and the third quarter will be much stronger there in terms of net
line additions.”
He said Alcatel was set to ship a total 22.5 million DSL lines in 2005,
of which 3 million would be IP DSLAM lines. That would increase to
an estimated 6 million IP DSLAM lines in 2006, about 20 percent of
the total.
And Quigley shot down the misconception that IP DSLAMS were cheaper
than traditional ATM-based units. “There are continual price and cost
reductions in the DSL market — it’s a very tough market and we’re
battling order by order. But while Ethernet-based DSLAMs provide a
lot of benefits to carriers, they’re not cheaper.”
Mobile: growth and NGN hopes
While Alcatel’s wireline business wilted in the second quarter, its
mobile infrastructure division increased its revenues nearly 35 percent
year-on-year to ~@958 million ($1.16 billion). Tchuruk said the sales
showed ongoing demand for the company’s hybrid 2G/3G infrastructure,
with new contracts in Brazil, Nigeria, Russia, France, and China.
The CEO was more excited about the future prospects for the technology
gained from the Spatial Wireless acquisition (see Alcatel in M&A
Frenzy). “The mobile NGN core has possibly even greater potential
than wireline NGN. We have 20 trials, and two deals, of our IMS-based
mobile NGN, and great expectations for this technology. The bottom
line may be negative from this business at the moment because of the
costs involved in working with customers, but we expect this will
change by the end of this year and into 2006.”
– Ray Le Maistre, International News Editor, Light Reading
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International Figures to Pay Tribute to Andrew Carnegie
Topic Conferences and Events
PNNOnline (The nonprofit news and information resource)
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
International experts and commentators on world affairs will visit
Dunfermline, near Edinburgh, in October to pay tribute to the great
Scots American philanthropist, Andrew Carnegie. They will be joined by
trustees and senior executives of the worldwide family of institutions
founded by Carnegie in the USA, Europe and the UK.
The visitors will be in Scotland to witness the conferring of the
Andrew Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy on six modern-day philanthropists
of international standing. The ceremony is being held in the new
Scottish Parliament building.
The experts will be taking part in an International Philanthropy
Symposium organised to celebrate the Medal Awards, previous recipients
of which include the Gates Family, the Rockefeller family and the
Sainsbury family.
This will be the first time the medals have been awarded in Scotland
where the great philanthropist and former steel magnate was born. The
Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy 2005 is being organised by the four
Scottish-based Carnegie foundations – the Carnegie Trust for the
Universities of Scotland, the Carnegie Dunfermline and Hero Fund
Trusts and the Carnegie UK Trust.
The event is also being supported by the Scottish Parliament, the
Scottish Executive, Event Scotland, Visit Scotland, the Royal Bank
of Scotland, the City of Edinburgh Council and Fife Council.
Carnegie gave away his fortune in 1905, the equivalent of $15 billion
dollars today.
Among the many achievements of the Carnegie family of 22 institutions
which developed from that time was the founding of approximately 2,500
public libraries across the English-speaking world. They also funded
research leading to the discovery of insulin, the Magellan and Hubble
telescopes – and even the educational television series, Sesame Street.
Projects in recent years have included extensive educational programmes
in Africa, building peace and democracy in Russia and the former Soviet
Union, China and the Middle East. They also include embryology and
cutting edge global ecology research in the US, influential commissions
of inquiry into the Third Age and Rural Community Development, as
well support for student research scholarships and Professorships at
Scottish Universities.
Following a reception hosted by Fife Council, there will be a
dedication of the proposed new joint HQ for the UK-based Carnegie
Trusts which is to be built beside Pittencrieff Park, Andrew Carnegie’s
gift to the people of Dunfermline.
The dedication of the new building will be performed by two of
Carnegie’s great grandchildren, one from Scotland and the other
from the US, linking the two parts of Andrew Carnegie’s life. The
cousins are William Thomson, CBE, Chairman of the Carnegie Medal for
Philanthropy 2005 Organising Group and Chairman of the International
Medal Selection Committee and Linda Hills from Colorado.
The further program of events for the day will include visits to the
Andrew Carnegie Birthplace and Museum and, at the Business Learning
and Conference Center at Lauder College, Vartan Gregorian, President
of the Carnegie Corporation of New York will dedicate the new Andrew
Carnegie Business School.
“We are honoured that so many distinguished and influential people
are coming to Dunfermline and to Scotland to attend the third Andrew
Carnegie Medals of Philanthropy 2005 Awards Ceremony and to take part
in the International Philanthropy Symposium,” said Mr. Thomson.
“The Andrew Carnegie Medal and the International Philanthropy Symposium
in which so many of our distinguished guests will take part provide
a great opportunity to put Scotland and the new Scottish Parliament
in the spotlight, as well as to discuss the direction in which
philanthropy should go in modern times.
“The interest which has been shown internationally in these two
events, the Symposium and the Medal ceremony itself, underlines how
significant philanthropy is in the 21st century, a hundred years after
Andrew Carnegie made his decision to devote the rest of his life and
his fortune to philanthropy.”
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