RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, Czech Republic
Aug 8 2005

Azerbaijan: Relations With U.S. Enter A New Phase
By Richard Giragosian

(RFE/RL)
The working visit to Washington last week by Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov came at a very significant time for both
countries and could represent something of a turning point in
bilateral relations. Following a sweeping reevaluation of U.S.
policy, those relations have been subject to a dynamic, yet subtle
shift in recent months, driven by a set of external developments
ranging from the impact of the so-called colored revolutions in
several former Soviet states to a new emphasis on democratization as
the strategic priority of the second Bush Administration.

The shift in U.S.-Azerbaijani relations has also been dictated by
internal considerations, further exacerbated by Azerbaijan’s looming
parliamentary elections set for 6 November. Set against the wave of
democratic change in Georgia, Ukraine, and most recently, in
Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan faces new pressure to ensure a free and fair
election. And it is this need to meet heightened democratic standards
that is the new determinant in the U.S. approach to Azerbaijan.

The necessity for improved electoral credentials in Azerbaijan has
been repeatedly stressed in recent months by the Council of Europe,
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and
was reiterated during last month’s visits to Baku by former U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and current Deputy Secretary of
State Paula Dobriansky. But Washington’s insistence on
democratization in Azerbaijan is not merely an end in itself, but
stems from a broader American recognition of democratization as
essential to domestic stability and regional security. It also
reflects a new tool in the global war on terror, although it remains
to be seen if this “muscular Wilsonian” approach will yield better
results.

For Azerbaijan, this priority for democratic elections has sharply
raised the threshold for the regime of President Ilham Aliyev. But
preparations for the election have fallen far short of the shared
expectations of the international community and the Azerbaijani
opposition. Specifically, Azerbaijan’s electoral reforms remain
incomplete, with shortfalls in both the composition of electoral
commissions and the planned monitoring of the ballot (See “RFE/RL
Caucasus Report.”). American disappointment with election
preparations to date was also a central message in Mammadyarov’s
talks with his American hosts.

This is also a lesson for others, however. For neighboring Armenia,
which will be facing its own elections within the next two years, and
even for Georgia, whose Rose Revolution was rewarded by an American
presidential visit and by U.S. help in pressuring Russia to withdraw
its troops from the country, but which has since created a Central
Election Commission wholly dominated by supporters of the ruling
party, there are significantly higher standards and greater
expectations.

In addition, Mammadyarov’s visit was largely overshadowed by
speculation about an imminent agreement for a new U.S. military base
in the country. This speculation has been largely fueled by the
recent demand by Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov to close the
U.S. and coalition air base at Karshi-Khanabad within six months. The
loss of the use of the base in Uzbekistan is viewed by some experts
as an immediate setback to the U.S. military’s operational
capabilities in nearby Afghanistan and, as the thinking holds,
necessitates the opening of new air base in Azerbaijan. While this
view is correct in recognizing the importance of the South Caucasus
air corridor as a “lifeline” between coalition forces in Afghanistan
and bases in Europe, it is flawed by a superficial understanding of
the nature of the U.S. military mission and presence in Azerbaijan,
as well as by the practical limitation of aircraft needing to refuel
en route from Azerbaijan to Afghanistan.

Despite reports predicting a “new” U.S. military engagement in
Azerbaijan, in reality, there has been a significant American
military mission there for at least three years, comprised of two
components. The first component was the creation of the “Caspian
Guard,” an initiative involving both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
focusing on maritime and border security in the Caspian Sea. The
Caspian Guard initiative incorporates defensive mission areas,
including the surveillance of Caspian airspace, borders, and
shipping. It encourages greater coordination and cooperation in
counter-proliferation efforts by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. This
effort was further bolstered by a $20 million program launched in
July 2004 and implemented by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency
to train the Azerbaijan Maritime Border Guard. Additional training
and combined exercises were also provided by U.S. Navy SEALS to
Azerbaijan’s 41st Special Warfare Naval Unit in June 2004.

The second component was the establishment of several “Cooperative
Security Locations,” tactical facilities with pre-positioned stock
that provide contingency access but, unlike a traditional base, have
little or no permanent U.S. military presence. These locations are
designed to increase the mobility of U.S. military forces and, most
importantly, facilitate counter-proliferation missions along
Azerbaijan’s southern border with Iran and northern borders with
Georgia and Daghestan.

In line with the U.S. military need to project military power
rapidly, the U.S. presence in Azerbaijan may be further expanded from
the existing Cooperative Security Locations to Forward Operating
Sites, host-country “warm sites” endowed with a limited military
presence and capable of hosting rotational forces. These forward
operating sites can also serve as centers for bilateral and regional
training.

Thus, while the utility of a permanent, traditional military base in
Azerbaijan is seriously limited, the expansion of the forward
stationing of forces is likely. (Azerbaijani presidential aide Novruz
Mamedov’s recent statement to Interfax that Azerbaijan will not host
“U.S. military bases” may draw a fine semantic line between “bases”
in the traditional sense and forward operating sites.) Yet even the
military relationship is in the final analysis contingent on
Azerbaijan’s ability to meet the new, more stringent U.S. standards
of democracy and free elections. The steadfast refusal by the
Azerbaijani authorities to amend the composition of election
commissions and their reluctance to permit the marking of voters to
preclude multiple voting cast doubt on President Aliyev’s repeated
assertions that the ballot will indeed be free, fair, and
transparent.

Los Angeles Times
Aug 8 2005

New Era for Glendale Armenians

Even as the ethnic group marks the milestone of a majority on the
City Council, it struggles with internal diversity and a changing
community.

By Amanda Covarrubias
Times Staff Writer

Drive down Central Avenue in the heart of Glendale and the telltale
signs of the city’s long Armenian influence quickly become apparent.

The cursive Armenian writing advertises bakeries, coffee shops and
restaurants that serve such specialties as sweet honey baklava and
lamb kebabs.

Glendale has been a haven for Armenians for generations, a point of
entry for immigrants from Armenia, as well as people of Armenian
descent from Turkey, Lebanon, Iran and the former Soviet Union. They
now make up 40% of the San Fernando Valley city’s 210,000 residents.

But it was not until this year that the city’s Armenian community
marked a major political milestone: winning a majority on the City
Council.

Many Armenian Americans are proud of the election results, saying
they illustrate how a community that once stood on the fringes of
local government now is playing a central role. But they also are
quick to say the Armenian American majority on the five-member
council does not reflect a homogenous community.

Despite its size, the population is highly diverse. Wealthy second-
and third-generation Armenian Americans live in tony neighborhoods in
the hills above the city, while recent immigrants struggle in
lower-income neighborhoods.

Bridging this divide is a task with which social service
organizations and the Armenian Church struggle. Sometimes the new
immigrants complain that their high expectations about life in
America are difficult to achieve, especially with limited English
skills.

“Some of these people can’t get jobs that will pull them out of their
financial situation,” said Angela Savoian, regional chairwoman for
the Armenian Relief Society. “They get deeper into debt because their
children want what their neighbors have…. It’s much more difficult to
be poor in this country than where they came from.”

Sometimes parents work two or three jobs to make ends meet, leaving
their children unsupervised for hours. In the past, authorities have
said the situation helped boost the ranks of Armenian street gangs, a
problem seen five years ago when an Armenian gang member fatally
stabbed a Latino student outside Hoover High School.

In recent years, police say, Armenian gang activity has declined. But
both Glendale police and the FBI are becoming increasingly concerned
about Armenian organized-crime rings linked to drug dealing and
robberies.

“I see a lot of materialism and anger and resentment,” said Father
Vazken Movsesian, who runs a youth drop-in center at St. Peter
Armenian Church, across the street from Hoover High. “I have to keep
telling them: ‘Appreciate all that America’s giving you.’ ”

The newly elected Armenian American council members have vowed to
help newcomers integrate into the community, fight youth crime and
bring about changes that will ease some of the parents’ problems.

Among the steps they can take, said Councilman Ara Najarian, is to
encourage the Police Department to hire more Armenian American
officers and work to secure more federally funded housing for
low-income families. The city has 1,500 vouchers for
government-funded housing and a waiting list of 9,000.

“Armenian Americans don’t all think the same way or walk in lock
step,” Najarian said. “We’re very diverse, from the poorest in the
city to the richest; some are professionals and some are newly
arrived with their own language and customs. It’s not like we had
60,000 people who came from Armenia yesterday and settled in
Glendale.”

————————————————————————

Once a bastion of white, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant political power, the
city is now home to about 85,000 Armenians, one of the largest
populations outside Armenia itself.

In addition to Central Avenue’s bustling shopping district, Glendale
is home to at least half a dozen Armenian-language newspapers, and
local cable TV outlets are filled with Armenian-produced talk shows
and public affairs programming.

“When I first came to California to go to school in the 1950s, there
were few Armenians in Glendale,” said Richard Dekmejian, director of
the USC Institute of Armenian Studies. “Most of the Armenians were in
West Adams, Boyle Heights, a few in the Valley. There were a small
number of Armenians in Hollywood, but they grew very fast.”

Armenian families have lived in the city since the 1920s, but
immigration did not transform its social fabric until the 1970s, when
Armenians who had scattered across the globe during the era of
genocide in Turkey uprooted themselves in rapid succession from
Lebanon, Iran and the then-Soviet Republic of Armenia. They were
forced to leave these countries because of world events that
prevented them from practicing their Christianity freely and to
escape anti-Armenian discrimination.

Many were drawn to Glendale, as well as East Hollywood and Fresno.

In many respects, the Armenian American councilmen represent the
diaspora. Bob Yousefian was born in Iran, moved to Lebanon as a
teenager and later followed his family to the United States; Rafi
Manoukian was born in Beirut and immigrated to the United States in
1975; and Najarian, whose parents emigrated from Armenia, is a
Cleveland native whose family moved to Glendale in 1980.

The leaders consider former Gov. George Deukmejian and former Mayor
Larry Zarian, the first Armenian American on the City Council, to be
their role models. Zarian, who served on the council from 1983 to
1993, was invited to Armenia for an official state visit after
becoming the first Armenian American mayor of a relatively large U.S.
city.

“I think what the community is doing in Glendale is something it has
not been able to do in many other parts of the world,” Zarian said.
“Our parents, who come from Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, the Soviet Union
and Iran, were not able to participate in the governmental political
process and run for public office.

“But their children became lawyers, teachers and doctors and said:
‘We want to be able to get involved.’ ”

The growing Armenian population did not always experience a smooth
transition. In 2000, when city officials lowered the American flag to
mark Armenian Genocide Commemoration Day, some longtime residents
complained about all the attention the event was receiving. The day
recognizes the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks between 1915 and
1923.

Around the same time, officials became concerned about violent
clashes between Armenian and Latino students at a local high school.

More recently, the FBI’s Eurasian Crime Task Force and the Glendale
Police Department have worked together to combat organized crime
involving Armenians from the former Soviet Union and the United
States. Authorities said the groups have taken root in the last five
years, dealing primarily in white-collar crimes involving auto
insurance, credit cards, identity theft and welfare fraud. But the
rings have also been linked to several murders.

In March, the FBI filed charges against members of a Russian Armenian
organized-crime ring accused of plotting to smuggle $2.5 million in
illegal guns into the United States.

There have also been tensions within the Armenian community. Earlier
this year, Manoukian and members of the Armenian Council of America
accused each other of politicizing the city’s annual Armenian
Genocide Commemoration activities.

Arguments broke out over who would serve on the committee that plans
the events. Vasken Khodanian, chairman of the Armenian Council of
America, said Manoukian excluded all but one representative from his
committee and filled it with members who have ties to the Armenian
National Committee.

————————————————————————

Members of the new council majority are quick to say they do not
consider themselves a voting bloc. They note that they ran for office
on a broad range of mainstream issues, such as improving public
safety, providing more affordable housing and overseeing the
redevelopment of Brand Boulevard.

But that voters elected them, they believe, signals Armenians in
Glendale want a voice in the city’s stewardship.

“To be able to say there’s three Armenians on the City Council,
that’s wonderful,” said Greg Krikorian, a board member with the
Glendale Unified School District. “I’m proud to see it, as long as
they’re qualified and they put Glendale first.”

Manoukian, the mayor, also expressed pride over the election but said
it represents a moment in time.

“There aren’t that many cities with a 40% population of Armenian
descent,” he said. “Two or 10 years down the line, people of
different ethnicities could move to Glendale and they’ll run for
office, and that would be fine.”

Indeed, in addition to Armenians, Filipinos and Koreans make up a
growing segment of the city’s population; Asians now make up nearly
17%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sixty-five languages are
spoken in the Glendale Unified School District.

Voters in April also elected their first Armenian American city
clerk, who ran on a platform of improving services to immigrants and
increasing their participation in civic life.

“Not many people were voting in Glendale. It was frustrating for me
to see so many Armenian Americans not participating in the city
government,” said Ardashes Kassakhian, 28, as he sipped strong
Armenian coffee in a cafe near City Hall. “That’s why I’m trying to
stress voter awareness and education.”

During the campaign, he initiated a broad voter registration effort,
aggressively signing up new voters via Korean and Filipino
newspapers, cable television and direct mail. He proudly notes that
the number of Filipinos registered to vote climbed from 700 to 5,000,
or nearly half the city’s Filipino population.

Berdj Karapetian, a businessman who has lived and worked in Glendale
on and off since 1982, said a big challenge for the new officials
would be to serve all parts of Glendale, both rich and poor.

“There are very wealthy Armenians who live in the hills, yet there
are those at low socioeconomic levels or seniors, who are dependent
on Medi-Cal or pensions,” Karapetian said.

“Will the policies start reflecting changes that accommodate those
who are in a less fortunate situation? Let’s look at policies that
will serve the less affluent population, whether they’re Hispanic or
Armenian or Asian.”

The Messenger, Georgia
Aug 8 2005

Baku: Kars-Akhalkalaki railway to be built by 2007
By M. Alkhazashvili

The Kars-Akhalkalaki railway project connecting Turkey, Georgia and
Azerbaijan via rails has been a long lasting topic for discussion,
but only recently became an issue of serious proposals.

Now the Azerbaijan Ministry of Transport has stated that
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway will be opened in a year and a
half and will cost USD 400 million, the paper Rezonansi reports.

Project feasibility studies will be ready by the end of the year and
Turkey has announced a tender on the studies. Within the framework of
the project Azeri, Georgian and Turkish transportation officials will
meet in Istanbul in August.

Already officials say that connecting Turkey’s railway with the South
Caucasus railway system will be profitable not only for Turkey,
Georgia and Azerbaijan, but also for the countries that could use the
line for transit. And despite the profitability of the line, the
construction of the small length of track (98 km, 68 in Turkey and 30
in Georgia) has been delayed for many years.

The main reason for this is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the
fact that an operating line once existed between Turkey and Armenia.
A group of U.S. congressmen are arguing that ignoring this line would
be a major setback for the treatment of Armenia and for the peace
process.

As a result, they have proposed a bill titled South Caucasus
Integration and Open Railroads Act of 2005. The U.S. Congressmen who
submitted the bill, Joseph Knollenberg (R-MI), Frank Pallone (D-NJ)
and George Radanovich (R-CA), argue that no U.S. aid should be given
to the rail project precisely because it excludes Armenia from the
East-West corridor.

The stated goal of the bill (H.R. 3361) is “To prohibit United States
assistance to develop or promote any rail connections or
railway-related connections that traverse or connect Baku,
Azerbaijan; Tbilisi, Georgia; and Kars, Turkey, and that specifically
exclude cities in Armenia.”

Despite the censure by the American legislators, officials in Baku,
Tbilisi and Ankara appear unfazed. At present, the railway
construction is slated to be conducted in two rounds. First one track
will be built and later when the railway starts operations, a second
track will be constructed.

Georgian papers state that according to estimates over the first year
of operation, 10 million tons of cargo will be transported and later
the figure will rise to 50 million tons. It is also forecast that the
line could be used for oil shipping that is today is transported by
sea through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

Gulf Times, Qatar
Aug 8 2005

Azerbaijan relaunches opposition crackdown

Published: Monday, 8 August, 2005, 12:16 PM Doha Time

BAKU: The arrest of an opposition leader in former Soviet Azerbaijan
over an alleged coup plot hatched by Armenian secret police and a US
democracy group reactivates an opposition crackdown in the oil rich
republic ahead of parliamentary elections.
Prosecutors on Thursday announced the arrest of Ruslan Bashirli, the
leader of the Yeni Fikir youth group modelled on movements that
helped topple regimes in Ukraine and Georgia recently, on charges of
attempting `to take power by force’.
His detention came just two months after the Azerbaijani authorities
had lifted a ban on public demonstrations that had been in place
since the contested 2003 presidential elections which ended in
rioting and hundreds of arrests.
The two days of rioting that enveloped the capital Baku in 2003 put
Azerbaijan in the international headlines. Since then, the
authorities have clamped down on dissent, loosening the unspoken ban
on rallies only in June after heavy Western diplomatic pressure.
Prosecutors accuse Bashirli of accepting money from Armenian
operatives posing as democracy activists from Georgia and Armenia in
order to finance a revolt planned by the US-based National Democratic
Institute (NDI).
While in Georgia in July, Bashirli told the Armenians that he
represented forces `acting on the instructions of the National
Democratic Institute of the USA’, according to a prosecutors’
statement.
He said he had received `specific instructions from representatives
of this organisation to prepare a revolution in Azerbaijan’, the
statement said.
Azerbaijan fought and lost a bitter war with Armenia over the
mountainous region of Nagorno Karabakh in the early 1990s and the two
former Soviet republics have yet to sign a formal peace deal.
Both Yeni Fikir and NDI denied they were plotting to oust the regime
of president Ilham Aliyev, with the US group’s Azerbaijan director
Christy Quirk saying the allegations `just aren’t true’.

UNPO, Netherlands
Aug 8 2005

Abkhazia and Georgia: Ready to ride on the Peace Train?

Spanning the Inguri River near Zugdidi are the rusty remains of the
Sochi-Tbilisi railway bridge. For 13 years, its demolition has meant
the severance of economic and communicative ties between Georgia and
the breakaway territory of Abkhazia, as well as the disruption of
rail trade between Armenia and Russia. Talks about reopening the line
between Tbilisi and Abkhazia’s capital, Sokhumi, first started seven
years ago, but only recently have both sides earnestly engaged in
discussions to make these plans a reality.
In Abkhazia, the restoration of the railway is viewed with hope,
doubt and fear. De facto Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Shamba
believes in the best-case scenario: a railway completion agreement
could be reached at the end of 2005 — providing “conflicts of
interest in Tbilisi don’t prevent it,” he stated in an interview with
EurasiaNet. “There are political forces in Tbilisi who would not like
to see the railway project be completed,” Shamba stated. “But I feel
[Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution] Giorgi Khaindrava
is a man we can talk with.”

Under the terms of a July 19 agreement reached in Sokhumi by Georgia,
Abkhazia and Russia, a 41-person commission will begin inspecting the
condition of the railway on August 9 as a first step toward reopening
the line. A full report on the commission’s work is slotted for
October 1.

Relations between Georgia and Abkhazia appear to be slowly warming.
United Nations-mediated talks held in Tbilisi on August 4 between
Abkhazia and Georgia were deemed “constructive” by both sides. The
discussions reportedly covered only general topics, but were
presented as a potential launch pad for more detailed negotiations in
future. “A constructive dialogue between Tbilisi and Sokhumi should
be continued,” the Russian news agency Interfax quoted Khaindrava as
saying.

Much touted in Georgia as a potential benefit of rapprochement, the
railway project appears to have much support in Sokhumi, too, but
according to Shamba, there are people who feel the railway could be a
threat to national security. Securing and protecting the railroad was
Georgian Defense Minister Tenghiz Kitovani’s pretext for sending the
Georgian National Guard into Abkhazian territory in 1992 while
fighting a civil war with forces loyal to deposed Georgian President
Zviad Gamsakhurdia.

“We remember how Georgia had planned to use the railway in 1992 to
deploy troops and equipment overnight to three locations into
Abkhazia and seize it,” commented Shamba. “If the Zviadists hadn’t
blown the bridge, they may have succeeded.”

A series of explosions in Ochamchira, a Black Sea port city between
Gali and Sukhumi, on March 24, 2002 has kept that nervousness alive.
The blasts destroyed a commuter train and the rail station, killing
three people and wounding 28. The explosions were blamed on Georgia,
which categorically denied them.

To secure the safety of the railway, initial plans would have Halo
Trust, a British non-governmental organization that removes
unexploded ordnance and clears landmines, complete de-mining the
line. Abkhazia would guarantee security from Ochamchira north to the
Russian border and Russian peacekeepers from Ochamchira to Gali, at
the border with Georgia.

At this point, only freight will be transported. Among numerous other
issues, carrying passengers would require rebuilding the destroyed
stations of Gali and Ochamchira. Before the war, both stations were
bustling with activity. Today, the Ochamchira station is in the same
state as it was after the 2002 bombing, while Gali is a
post-apocalyptic testament to the ravages of war.

In addition, 60 kilometers of track, between Zugdidi, administrative
center of the Georgian region of Samegrelo, and Ochamchira have been
removed from the railroad and sold for scrap metal. One hundred
million dollars will be needed to repair the stretch, according to
Georgian and Abkhazian officials’ estimates.

If and when completed, the railroad will comply with the 2003 Sochi
agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, which calls for the return of
Georgian refugees to the Gali region, modernization of the Ingurhesi
hydroelectric plant and reopening of the railroad. While negotiators
are addressing all three issues, some modifications have been made.
Georgia, for one, has agreed to repudiate its condition of a
simultaneous return of Georgian refugees to the Gali region.

Customs issues have also been discussed, but not yet resolved. In his
interview, Shamba dismissed this obstacle by focusing on the benefits
the railway will provide. ” We have been cut off from each other for
too long. Communication links will resume. We will be able to start
reconciling the conflicts in the Caucasus. And as the world is now
connected, we, too, must consider the economic development for the
Caucasus. The railway will create an entrepreneurial zone.”

Both Georgian and Abkhaz residents of Abkhazia appear to support this
idea. “Any means to develop a bridge of communication is a good
thing,” said one Georgian from Gali who gave his name as Besik B. “We
want peace. The railroad is a link to peace.”

That view was echoed by de facto Deputy Foreign Minister Maxim
Gunjia, who described the railway as an option for greater regional
cooperation. “We wouldn’t need the EU [European Union] or the CIS
[Commonwealth of Independent States] if we had a Transcaucasus
Federation where borders would be open, electricity shared — an
economically united union.”

Others see a restored railroad as essential if Abkhazia will not fall
even further behind into economic isolation. “It’s the 21st century
and look at how we have to transport ourselves!” exclaimed one man as
he crossed the railroad bridge between Georgia and Abkhazia.

The decrepit bridge across the Inguri has been rigged with planks and
cables, providing residents with a precarious, yet unrestricted means
for travel between the two territories. With the exception of the
Russian peacekeeping forces, there are no border checkpoints.

Nevertheless, some Abkhazians like Nugzar O., a resident of Gali, see
the railway as just another political promise. “They say the railway
will help the country . . . we’ll see if they ever build it or not.”

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
Aug 8 2005

THE CONSPIRATOR AS BRAGGART

By Vladimir Socor

Monday, August 8, 2005

Azerbaijani opposition movement leaders under pressure On August 4
and 5, Azerbaijani television channels screened a videotape of a
meeting held on July 29 in Tbilisi between Ruslan Bashirli, leader of
the Baku-based Yeni Fikir (New Thinking) youth association, and two
Georgians who claimed to represent a youth group supporting regime
change in Azerbaijan and offered clandestine assistance to that end.

Yeni Fikir itself seeks to spearhead an “orange-revolution”-type
movement in Azerbaijan and has clad its followers in orange shirts,
preparatory to street demonstrations in connection with the upcoming
parliamentary elections. The group is affiliated with (though not a
part of) the People’s Front of Azerbaijan Party (PFAP). Yeni Fikir
activist Osman Alimuradov, who accompanied Bashirli to Tbilisi,
promptly reported to the Azerbaijani authorities and turned over the
videotape, which he said had been made by the Tbilisi hosts who
retained a copy. Bashirli was detained on August 4 on criminal
charges of conspiring to overthrow the constitutional order.

Bashirli, who is 27 years old, has been interrogated by a Baku court
in the presence of his lawyer, Elchin Gambarov. The lawyer as well as
PFAP leader Ali Kerimli, Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar, and others
seek to mobilize political support for Bashirli. Official media,
using the case to discredit PFAP, accuse Bashirli and other
opposition members of working with Armenia’s intelligence services,
but they adduce no evidence other than the Armenian names of some of
Bashirli’s alleged contacts in Tbilisi. Bashirli’s defenders suggest
that the videotape was doctored.

Beyond the welter of far-fetched mutual accusations in the media,
however, Bashirli and his defenders have admitted to the accuracy of
at least some of the content of the videotape. Thus, they concede
that Bashirli has accepted a $2,000 donation — the receipt for which
he is seen signing and heard confirming on the videotape — and a
promise for a further $20,000 donation later this month. By way of
mitigating circumstances, they cite Bashirli’s assertion — on tape
and again to the court — that he would use the initial donation to
buy technical equipment for Yeni Fikir and to cover expenses for his
wedding party.

Kerimli told a news conference that the case is a provocation by the
authorities “aiming to discredit Yeni Fikir, [out of] fear that the
movement will grow in the run-up to the election.” Bashirli “should
be held responsible morally, not criminally. He makes incorrect and
inappropriate statements that the United States is preparing a
revolution in Azerbaijan … He wants to present himself as a more
important figure [than he is] in order to impress his interlocutors.
All this is of course regrettable and makes him responsible before
his comrades-in-arms,” Kerimli stated. He cautioned PFAP members to
refrain from attending dubious meetings or drinking alcohol, and
generally to control their emotions (ANS TV, Turan, August 5).

For his part, Gambarov told a news conference that the donation was
part of a grant received via Georgian non-governmental groups.
Bashirli was to have spent part on it on his wedding party planned
for August 10 (ANS TV, August 6; Turan, August 6, 8). Yeni Fikir’s
vice-chairmen, Said Nuriev and Fikret Faramazoglu, while defending
Bashirli, told their press conference that their leader was “drunk
and bragging” (AFP, August 5). In fact, drink was a topic of
discussion several times on the videotape — an element seized on by
the authorities to discredit an opponent in this Muslim nation.

On the tape, Bashirli is seen and heard saying that the
Washington-based National Democratic Institute (NDI) is instructing
Yeni Fikir about organizing mass protest rallies and “preparing for
revolution.” In Washington, NDI’s Eurasia regional director, Nelson
Ledsky, responded in a statement that NDI does not support any party
or individual candidate in the parliamentary elections. NDI’s Baku
office in turn responded that allegations that NDI is funding a
revolution are untrue, as NDI cooperates with all political parties
to promote free and fair elections (Turan, August 5, 6).

The flap over Yeni Fikir and Bashirli, while overblown, seems to
demonstrate the immaturity and volatility of some of the opposition
circles.

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
Aug 8 2005

ARMENIAN NUCLEAR PLANT TO FUNCTION FOR ANOTHER DECADE

By Emil Danielyan
Monday, August 8, 2005

Armenia appears to have decided to keep its vital nuclear power
station at Metsamor operational for another decade, despite
persisting Western concerns about the safety of the Soviet-built
facility. The authorities in Yerevan, reluctant to set a date for the
plant’s inevitable closure until recently, have deferred the decision
over the past few months.

The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), Mohamed El Baradei, ascertained their intentions during a
recent visit to Yerevan. “I think the Armenian authorities would like
to continue to operate the reactor for around ten years,” El Baradei
said after talks with President Robert Kocharian and other senior
Armenian officials on July 28.

This will hardly please the United States and especially the European
Union. They have for years been pushing for a quick decommissioning
of Metsamor, saying that it is located in a seismically active region
and that its sole operating reactor is inherently flawed. But the
United States and the EU seem to have no option other than continuing
to work with Yerevan in further boosting the plant’s safety during
its final years of operation. They are also clearly conscious of the
fact that it meets as much as 40% of Armenia’s energy needs.

Built 35 kilometers west of Yerevan in 1977, the nuclear plant was
promptly shut down by Soviet authorities following the December 1988
earthquake that devastated much of northern Armenia. Metsamor’s
closure was hardly felt until the collapse of the Soviet Union and
the outbreak of wars in Karabakh and elsewhere in the South Caucasus.
Those events plunged Armenia into a crippling energy crisis that
forced its first post-communist government to reactivate one of the
plant’s two reactors in 1995. The move, coupled with a radical reform
of the Armenian energy sector, not only ended the power shortages but
also enabled the landlocked, resource-poor country to export to some
of its neighbors.

The West opposed Metsamor’s reactivation from the outset, but
eventually had to come to terms with it. The Americans and Europeans
have each spent tens of millions of dollars on measures to improve
the plant’s operational safety over the past decade. In return for
the large-scale assistance, the administration of Armenia’s former
president Levon Ter-Petrosian reportedly promised to decommission it
in 2004. However, Kocharian never felt bound by that pledge and his
government insists that Metsamor is safe enough to continue its
operations.

Kocharian told El Baradei that his administration is committed to
further improving safety standards at Metsamor. The Vienna-based IAEA
has regularly inspected the plant and has not reported serious
violations so far. El Baradei commended the Armenian authorities for
their “good” cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

Armenian energy officials say Metsamor’s VVER-440 light-water reactor
is more advanced than any of the RBMK-1000 reactors of the Chernobyl
nuclear station that exploded in 1986. Their European counterparts,
however, believe VVER-440 is one of the most dangerous facilities of
its kind in the world. The European Commission said in a report last
March that the closure of all Soviet-built nuclear facilities remains
“a key EU objective.”

The Armenian government may have coped with Western pressure well,
but it clearly cannot avoid setting a date for the nuclear plant’s
closure anymore. Deputy Energy Minister Areg Galstian told
journalists on June 23 that the government is already preparing for
the start of the decommissioning process, which he said would be
complete before 2016. The process promises to be very costly.
According to Galstian, its first stage alone requires $44 million
worth of expenditures. That includes the construction of a second
storage site for nuclear waste.

Yerevan hopes that Western donors will foot most of the
multimillion-dollar bill. It has contended all along that Armenia
cannot afford to halt the Metsamor reactor before developing
alternative sources of power generation. Yet it appears that the
problem is not so much the availability of those sources as their
production costs. Thermal power plants already account for 40% of
electricity production in Armenia and can substantially increase
their output at any moment. The problem is that the electricity
generated by them is much more expensive than nuclear energy.

The Armenian authorities borrowed $150 million from the Japanese
development agency last March for a complete reconstruction of an old
thermal plant in Yerevan. Its production costs are due to fall
dramatically as a result. The authorities are also looking for a
foreign investor to complete the protracted construction of a new
gas-powered plant in the central town of Hrazdan. The two facilities
are expected to be the main recipients of Iranian natural gas that
will be delivered to Armenia through a pipeline currently under
construction.

The pipeline is a key component of a 20-year energy sector
development plan that the Armenian government approved on June 23.
The plan also envisages the construction of new hydroelectric
stations across the country.

The government’s decisions on the issue are also bound to be
influenced by the fact that Metsamor’s finances are managed by
Russia’s state-owned power monopoly, Unified Energy Systems, in
accordance with a 2003 swap agreement that settled the plant’s $40
million debt to Russian nuclear fuel suppliers. The deal enabled
Metsamor to balance its books and secure fresh fuel deliveries. It
remains to be seen at what cost.

(Hayastani Hanrapetutyun, July 29; Statement by the Armenian
president’s press service, July 28; RFE/RL Armenia Report, July 28,
March 28; Haykakan Zhamanak, June 24)

Turkish Press
Aug 8 2005

Press Review

AKSAM

SWISS SENATE: `DEBATING GENOCIDE ALLEGATIONS ISN’T OUR JOB’

The Swiss Senate decided over the weekend not to debate the so-called
Armenian genocide issue. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted
against considering the issue in the full Senate, saying that the
issue should instead be discussed between Turkey and Armenia. Peter
Briner, head of the committee, said that the third countries should
not point the finger at Turkey 90 years after the events. Briner also
said that Turkey has to look into the Armenian issue if it wants to
join the European Union, though Switzerland itself is not a member of
the bloc. Under Swiss law, denying any genocide is a crime. Ankara
recently criticized the Swiss canton of Vaud for recognizing the
so-called genocide and cancelled a planned visit by Swiss Foreign
Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey. /Aksam/

Baku Today, Azerbaijan
Aug 8 2005

Opposition Party Leader Calls Youth Movement Chair’s Arrest `Subversion’

Baku Today / AssA-Irada 08/08/2005 17:17

Popular Front Party (PFPA) chairman Ali Karimli has refuted reports
on the Yeni Fikir (New Thought) youth movement chairman’s Ruslan
Bashirli’s cooperation with the Armenian secret service.

`The reports and relevant TV broadcasts are another subversion of
Azerbaijani secret service’, Karimli told a news conference.

The Prosecutor’s Office issued a report on Thursday saying that while
visiting Tbilisi, Bashirli plotted with the Armenian secret service
to stage a coup and provoke stand-off in Azerbaijan. It also said
that the chairman and another representative of Yeni Fikir went to
the Georgian capital on Karimli’s instruction.

Karimli said that the individuals that spoke with Bashirli during the
visit presented themselves as representatives of Georgian
non-government organizations.

The PFPA chair said that a while ago, one of these persons, who are
now known to serve Armenian secret service, visited Baku, presenting
himself as a businessman, and met with him.

`If he works for Armenian secret service, how did he manage to enter
the city? Where were government agencies then?’
Karimli went on to say that after Bashirli returned from Georgia, he
met with him in Baku. Bashirli then said that while in Tbilisi, a
Georgian businessman offered him money, but he refused.

`I am not sure now – either Bashirli was not saying the truth or this
part was removed from the TV footage’, the PFPA chair said.

Karimli noted that he was disappointed with some statements by
Bashirli.

`I was frustrated by what he said about the Upper Garabagh conflict
and the US plans to stage a revolution in Azerbaijan….He was in a
drunken state when he made those statements.’

Karimli also said that he believes that various psychotropic
substances were mixed in the drinks that Bashirli had with the
mentioned individuals.

The PFPA chairman did not rule that Russian secret service agencies
may be involved in the incident, as the reports on the matter and the
video-tape showing the conversation Bashirli had in Tbilisi were
submitted to the Prosecutor’s Office by a Russian citizen. Bashirli
bears not criminal but `moral responsibility’ for the incident, said
Karimli.

The PFPA chairman added that the incident is aimed against him and
his party and expressed confidence that he will `succeed in
disclosing it’.

Baku Today
Aug 8 2005

No Talks Held on US military Bases in Washington – Azeri Official

Baku Today / Assa Irada 08/08/2005 17:10

No talks were held or agreements signed on the stationing of US
military bases in Azerbaijan during Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov’s meetings in Washington, he told a meeting arranged at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Thursday.

Mammadyarov, who has completed his four-day visit to the United
States, said in his report on Azerbaijan’s foreign policy that the
integration into European organizations is a part of the country’s
foreign political course.

The Minister noted that Azerbaijan, which is successfully
implementing projects on production and transportation of Caspian
natural resources, will spend its oil revenues to develop the non-oil
sector.

Mammadyarov said that during his meetings at the White House and
Pentagon, American officials welcomed President Ilham Aliyev’s policy
based on democratic and economic reforms. `The fruitful discussions
reaffirmed that US and Azeri governments have common positions on a
number of issues,’ he said.

The Minister elaborated on the course of peace talks on settling the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh. The negotiations are
held in very challenging conditions. Azerbaijan will always adhere to
the principle of territorial integrity, he said.

`Armenians residing in Upper Garabagh are full-fledged citizens of
Azerbaijan. As citizens of a democratic country, they will be able to
benefit from revenues acquired through energy projects after the
Upper Garabagh conflict is settled peacefully.’

Mammadyarov said US officials highly appreciate President Aliyev’s
decree on parliamentary elections. 3,000 observers, with half of them
being foreigners, will observe the poll in November.

`We do not back away from such transparency, as democracy is
Azerbaijan’s own choice.’
In reply to a question about Azerbaijan’s future relations with Iran,
Mammadyarov said Iran’s main political course is determined by
Ayatollah Khomeini. Azerbaijan therefore does not expect any changes
in this country’s foreign policy.

On the last day of his visit, the Minister held an informal meeting
with former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.

Mammadyarov also met with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
deputy national security adviser Jack Crouch. He also addressed a
roundtable attended by representatives of the National Democratic
Institute, International Republican Institute, International
Foundation for Election Systems, Department of State and National
Security Council as well as businessmen at the Washington-based U.S.
Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce.