NATO MAY PLAY LARGE ROLE IN SOUTHERN CAUCASUS – MINISTER
ITAR-TASS, Russia
TASS
Oct 6 2005
DUSHANBE, October 6 (Itar-Tass) – Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanyan said NATO may play a large role in establishing peace in
southern Caucasus and induce countries in the regions to a peaceful
dialogue.”
Oskanyan said so at a seminar on security in southern Caucasus,
organized by the Armenian parliament and NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly.
“It matches Armenia’s efforts and wishes;” this task can be viewed
within the context of the program of individual partnership between
Armenia and NATO, the foreign minister said.
The implementation of the individual partnership program will help
Armenia to attain three goads: to institutionalize the dialogue with
NATO on border security and the fight against terrorism and illegal
weapons-trafficking.
It will also facilitate the country’s army reform, whose objectives
envision civil control over the armed forces, and ensure Armenia’s
participation in NATO-led peacekeeping operations.
“We can achieve all this with NATO’s assistance,” the minister said.
Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
/CSTO/, it has Russian military bases in its territory, but at the
same time, the republic closely works with NATO, in accordance with
Yerevan’s principle of “complementary foreign policy.”

ANALYSIS-FRICTION IN AZERI RULING ELITE ON ELECTION EVE
By Lada Yevgrashina
Reuters
10/06/05 07:11 ET
BAKU, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev faces
the fiercest challenge to his power not from the opposition at
parliamentary elections in a month’s time but from warring factions
inside his own ruling elite, analysts say.
The Nov. 6 vote is under close international scrutiny after rigged
elections in ex-Soviet Georgia and Ukraine led to revolutions — a
scenario Aliyev’s opponents say could be repeated in the energy-rich
Caspian Sea state.
Though ruling officials deny a split, analysts say Aliyev, 43, is
caught in a power struggle between young modernisers in his team who
want a fair election and older hawks prepared to use force to put
down opposition protests after the vote.
“The ‘velvet’ revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia only happened
because there was a clear split in the ruling clan,” said analyst
Zardusht Alizade.
If Azerbaijan’s government snubs international pressure for a fair
vote, “it can expect a schism, and part of the ruling elite will join
the opposition camp,” he said.
Even Aliyev’s opposition challengers say they are less of a threat
than the enemies in his own camp.
“A real split can be observed inside Ilham Aliyev’s team,” Ali Kerimli,
one of two leaders of Azerbaijan’s main opposition bloc, told Reuters
in an interview.
“And more than that, the struggle between the factions is even more
bitter than that between the authorities and the opposition,” said
Kerimli, whose National Front, with four seats, is the only opposition
party in parliament.
Next month’s election has laid bare the infighting, with candidates
from rival factions running against each other for the same seat in
parliament on the ruling New Azerbaijan Party ticket, Kerimli said.
Aliyev, elected president in 2003 to replace his father Haydar,
who had ruled since Soviet times, is popular with voters and governs
almost unchallenged by the weak opposition.
SPLIT DISMISSED
All members of his administration say they are united in their loyalty
to the president.
“There is no split. All this talk of divisions is without foundation,”
said Siyavush Novruzov, deputy head of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.
But analysts name Ramiz Mehtiyev, head of the presidential
administration who served for many years under Haydar Aliyev, as
the key figure in the faction that favours authoritarian methods to
preserve power.
On the other side is a group of younger politicians led by Azerbaijan’s
representative to the Council of Europe, Samed Seidov, who are pushing
for political reform, analysts say.
Local newspaper reports said Seidov and his allies — who include
some of Aliyev’s personal friends — complained this summer that the
old guard in the administration was frustrating reform.
Soon after, tax police raided a university run by Seidov, the
reports said.
Azerbaijan’s ruling elite is a patchwork of clans from the Aliyev
family’s native region of Nakhichevan, ethnic Azeris from neighbouring
Armenia and family friends and relatives.
Analysts say Aliyev shares the reformist leanings of his younger
aides but is not strong enough to take on the old guard.
Offshore oil and gas fields operated by BP are ramping up production,
promising Azerbaijan a windfall of billions of dollars over the next
20 years. Some observers say the clans are fighting for a share of
these spoils.
“The struggle inside the governing elite has intensified with the
election, but also as a result of the growing flow of financial
resources,” said analyst Leila Aliyeva.
Newspaper reports say the latest feud is between Economic Development
Minister Farhad Aliyev and Kemalatdin Haydarov, the customs chief
and an old favourite of the ruling family.
Farhad Aliyev has been stripped of some official powers and has
complained to reporters of a death threat, though he did not give
the source of the threat.
President Aliyev has promised that the Nov. 6 election will be fair
and says accusations of ballot-rigging and official repression are
empty opposition rhetoric.
Police at the weekend used truncheons to break up an opposition
rally in the centre of the capital, saying the protesters did not
have official permission. The opposition had turned down the offer
of a venue on the outskirts of Baku.
(Additional reporting by Rufat Abbassov)

ARMENIA SUPPORTS INDIA’S UNSC BID
Outlook , India
Oct 6 2005
Sunil Gatade, Yeravan (Armenia), Oct 6 (Pti)
Armenia today came out in strong support of India’s bid for permanent
membership in the UN Security Council and shared New Delhi’s views
on Kashmir issue during talks Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat
had with its leaders including President Robert Kocharian.
The talks also resulted in India assuring Armenia in providing
fullest cooperation in Information Technology and agriculture
sectors. Meanwhile, the CIS country offered assistance to New Delhi
in science and technology especially in laser technology, in which
it has a competitive edge.
Shekhawat, who is the first leader from a major democracy to visit
this South Causasian country formed after the breakup of Soviet Union
in 1991, saw the Armenian leadership reiterating their positions on
various issues, including UNSC expansion and Kashmir, during warm
and friendly talks.
Armenia is the first country in the world whose Foreign Minister
had made the demand of inclusion of India in the UN Security Council
three years back.
The first Vice Presidential visit to this CIS country witnessed
the signing of an Mou on Parliamentary Cooperation between the two
countries and Shekhawat was given a standing ovation at the National
Assembly whose special session he addressed.
Addressing the National Assembly of Armenia, the Vice President
dwelt at length on the issue of terrorism, saying democracies are
“haunted and threatened most by terrorism”. He said the fight against
the scourge has to be comprehensive and sustained. “We need to isolate
the elements who instigate, support or assist terrorism, in any form,
as much as those who perpetrate it.” His concluding the address with
a sentence in Armenian touched a chord with the Parliamentarians.
The two sides will also be signing a Protocol of Exchange of
Instruments of ratification of the Treaty on friendship and
cooperation. The treaty was signed during 1995 visit to New Delhi of
the then Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossyan.
Shekhawat will be presenting shipping documents of 60 tractors to
Armenian authorities tomorrow which is a gift from India. As part of
a five million dollar grant, New Delhi would be gifting 300 tractors
to Yerevan.

INDIA, ARMENIA SIGN MOU ON PARLIAMENTARY COOPERATION
Sify, India
Oct 6 2005
Yerevan: Giving a boost to their close and friendly relations,
India and Armenia on Thursday signed a memorandum of understanding
to intensify and promote cooperation between the parliaments of the
two countries.
The MoU on parliamentary cooperation was signed by secretary
(Coordination) Vijay Kumar and Hayk Kotayan, secretary general of
the Armenian National Assembly, in the presence of Vice-President
Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.
The pact was signed soon after Shekhawat’s arrival in this picturesque
country — the smallest of the republics that came into existence
after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 — on a two-day visit
on the last leg of his three-nation tour.
The two sides are also scheduled to initial a Protocol of Exchange
of Instruments on Friendship and Cooperation on Friday.
Shekhawat, who is the first Indian Vice-President to visit the country,
was given the honour of addressing the National Assembly at its special
session on Thursday, signifying the excellent bilateral relations.
The Vice-President had detailed discussions with Armenian President
Robert Kocharian whose country endorses India’s permanent membership
in the UN Security Council. Armenia supports India’s stand that the
Kashmir issue should be resolved bilaterally within the framework of
the Simla agreement.
The two countries have so far signed as many as 18 agreements in
diverse fields ranging from cooperation in Information Technology,
science and technology to defence.

FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM HAS TO BE COMPREHENSIVE: SHEKHAWAT
Sunil Gatade
Press Trust of India, India
Oct 6 2005
Yerevan (Armenia), Oct 6 (PTI) Asserting that the fight against
terrorism has to be comprehensive and sustained, India today said
the elements who “instigate or assist” the menace in any form need
to be isolated as much as those who perpetrate it.
Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, here on a two-day visit on
the last leg of his three-nation tour, also said the UN needed to
be reformed urgently as the present system suffered from “democracy
deficit” and wanted the reforms, including expansion of the Security
Council, be carried out expeditiously to “judiciously reflect the
present global scenario”.
Addressing the National Assembly of Armenia, the Vice President
dwelt at length on the issue of terrorism, saying democaracies are
“haunted and threatened most by terrorism”.
He said the fight against the scourge has to be comprehensive and
sustained. “We need to isolate the elements who instigate, support
or assist terrorism, in any form, as much as those who perpetrate it.”
The Vice President, who earlier held detailed discussions with
Armenian President Robert Kocharian, said India greatly appreciated
Armenia’s support to its candidature for a permanent seat in the UN
Security Council.
He also thanked Armenia for its principled and consistent support to
India on the issue of terrorism and said that to accomplish the task
of development without any distraction or hindrance, an international
environment of peace conducive to growth was needed. PTI

ARMENIAN SPEAKER SCORING MORE POINTS WITH TRADEMARK POPULISM
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Jamestown Foundation
Oct 6 2005
Armenia’s ambitious parliament speaker, Artur Baghdasarian, has
solidified his positions this week by exploiting an issue that
touches a raw nerve in Armenian society and is a major ingredient of
his populist discourse. Baghdasarian, who is seen as one of President
Robert Kocharian’s potential successors, appears to have succeeded in
forcing the government to start compensating Armenian citizens whose
Soviet-era savings bank deposits were wiped out by hyperinflation of
the early 1990s.
Local commentators note the fact that he owes the tactical victory to
Kocharian. Some have even suggested that the 36-year-old politician
now stands a better chance in the unfolding tussle for the Armenian
presidency.
Armenia boasted one of the highest per-capita rates of bank
savings among the 15 Soviet republics. But what had for decades been
accumulated by the population effectively evaporated in the economic
chaos that followed the Soviet collapse. The depreciation of the bank
deposits made transition to the market economy particularly painful for
hundreds of thousands of Armenians. Many of them — especially elderly
people mired in poverty – remain embittered by the enormous loss.
And there has been no lack of politicians keen to capitalize on their
fury. Baghdasarian has been the most successful of them. Compensation
of the former deposit holders was a key campaign promise of his
Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party in the run-up to Armenia’s last
parliamentary election held in May 2003. The tactic proved highly
effective, with Orinats Yerkir now having the second-largest faction
in the National Assembly and three ministers in Prime Minister Andranik
Markarian’s cabinet.
That Orinats Yerkir’s vague promise is unrealistic became evident
early last year when the party introduced a bill that calls for an
equivalent of $83 million to be paid to the former deposit holders
within the next ten years. The sum pales in comparison with billions
of Soviet rubles that Armenians used to have on their bank accounts.
It was clear that the proposed compensation would be largely
symbolic. At the same time $83 million is a lot of money by current
Armenian standards and is comparable to the cash-strapped Armenian
government’s annual spending on social security or health care.
The government, backed by the International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank, was quick to point out that the Orinats Yerkir scheme
would therefore be a serious waste of scarce public resources. Not
surprisingly, Markarian’s Republican Party (HHK), the biggest
parliamentary force, blocked the Orinats Yerkir bill. Opposition
lawmakers added to Baghdasarian’s embarrassment last December when they
forced a high-profile parliament debate on the issue and challenged him
to honor his pledge. Kocharian had to give the speaker a face-saving
cop-out the next month, forming an ad hoc commission tasked with
looking into possibilities of deposit compensation.
The commission never made public any reports and was thought to have
buried the matter until an October 1 meeting between Kocharian and
leaders of Orinats Yerkir, the HHK, and the third party represented in
his government, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. The meeting was
followed by the Orinats Yerkir bill’s inclusion on the parliamentary
agenda. Baghdasarian said on October 4 that the move was part of
a deal cut by Kocharian and his coalition allies. “I hope that the
political agreement will be honored by the Republican Party and other
political forces that joined this initiative,” he told reporters.
What that agreement specifically means is not clear, however. Some HHK
leaders have hinted that Baghdasarian’s bill will not even be debated
on the parliament floor. Markarian, for his part, announced on October
5 that his government’s draft budget for next year would earmark only
$2.2 million for compensating the poorest deposit holders. But even
this meager sum would allow Baghdasarian to claim that he has remained
true to his word. The Armenian speaker will also tell voters that his
efforts to achieve a more far-reaching solution were blocked by more
powerful government factions.
The key question here is why Kocharian decided to revive the issue
at this juncture. Some analysts say he is keen to woo impoverished
voters ahead of the November 27 referendum on his package of amendments
to the Armenian constitution. Others believe that Kocharian, who is
obliged to resign after completing his second term in office in 2008,
made it clear that he continues to view Baghdasarian as one of his
possible successors. Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, Kocharian’s
most powerful lieutenant, has been regarded as the top candidate for
that role until now. But the Armenian press speculates periodically
that relations between the two Karabakh-born men are not as cordial
as is widely assumed. The Yerevan daily Haykakan Zhamanak suggested
that the “drastic change” in the Armenian president’s position on
the Soviet-era savings deposits was “not only in favor of Artur
Baghdasarian but also against Serge Sarkisian.”
For Kocharian, a good thing about the young speaker is that he is
arguably the most electable member of the ruling regime. (Sarkisian
is a far more divisive figure not least because of his grip on
lucrative sectors of the Armenian economy and involvement in vote
rigging.) Baghdasarian knows how to make the most of his strongest
weapon, populism, in a country where civic consciousness has
experienced a serious decline over the past decade. His party also
boasts the most effective grassroots structure, cannily targeting
specific groups of the population such as schoolteachers, doctors,
and even disabled persons. For many of them, it is tempting to ignore
the fact that Orinats Yerkir is an increasingly important component
of Armenia’s leadership.
(Aravot, October 6; Haykakan Zhamanak, October 5; RFE/RL Armenia
Report, October 3-4; Armenian Public Television, October 2)

AARHUS CENTRES TO OPEN IN ARMENIAN REGIONS WITH OSCE SUPPORT
Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE)

Oct 6 2005
Local public environmental information Centres (Aarhus Centres) will
soon open in the capitals of the Syunik, Tavush and Lori regions
of Armenia with the help of the OSCE Office in Yerevan, which today
signed an agreement with the Ministry of Nature Protection and local
administrations.
The Centres will promote access to information, including through
the Internet, public participation in decision-making and access to
justice in environmental matters-the three main pillars of the Aarhus
Convention, ratified by Armenia in 2001. They will also contribute
to the creation of a public climate of transparency in environmental
affairs and to the general democratization and good governance in
the region.
The need for local Aarhus Centres in the regions was one of the
recommendations of the OSCE-supported study of the perspectives of the
socio-economic development of the Syunik region, conducted last year.
The Centres will also serve as a link between governmental authorities
and non-governmental organizations (NGO) in the field of environmental
policy-making, promote co-operation between all environmental
stakeholders and their potential counterparts, such as national,
foreign and international NGOs, as well as the business community, and
serve as a basis for coalition-building among local environmental NGOs.
The Centres will open later this year and make use of the experience
and expertise of the Yerevan Aarhus Centre, established in 2002 as
the first one in Southern Caucasus.
The OSCE Office in Yerevan supports the establishment of a network of
Aarhus Centres in Armenia to promote the principles and values of the
international Aarhus Convention, which combines both environmental
issues and democratic spirit.
Contacts Gohar Avagyan OSCE Office in Yerevan 89 Teryan St. 375009
Yerevan Armenia Tel: +374 10 54 10 62 +374 10 54 58 45 Fax: +374 10
54 10 61

LOCALS, POLICE CLASH IN AKHALKALAKI
Civil Georgia, Georgia
Oct 6 2005
Hundreds of local residents in Akhalkalaki, a town in Georgia’s
south-western region of Samtskhe-Javakheti, which is predominantly
populated by ethnic Armenians, rallied on October 5 protesting against
the closure of trade facilities by financial police. Tensions flared
up after police fired several shots into the air to disperse the rally.
President Saakashvili said while commenting on the Akhalkalaki
incident, that “there is no serious problem and law-enforcers are
maintaining order in the region.”
“We are establishing control in this region [Samtskhe-Javakheti],
which was out of full control over previous years. Any attempts to
trigger disorders will be unsuccessful,” Saakashvili told reporters
on October 6.

SHEKHAWAT MEETS ARMENIAN PRESIDENT
Hindu, India
Outlook, India
Oct 6 2005
Yerevan, Oct 6. (PTI): Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat today
had a meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharian soon after
arriving here on a two-day visit, which is expected to give a major
impetus to relations between the two countries.
The Vice President flew in here from Minsk on the third leg of his
three-nation tour that earlier took him to Romania and Belarus.
He was warmly received by Vahan Hovhannisyan, Deputy Chairperson of
the National Assembly of Armenia, and Michael Carvardanyan of the
Armenia-India Parliamentary Group.
Soon after his arrival, the Vice President had a meeting with
Kocharian.
This is the first-ever Indian Vice Presidential visit to this CIS
country, which is the smallest of the nations that came into existence
after the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.
During his visit, the Vice President will be addressing the National
Assembly of Armenia.
Tomorrow, he will be conferred a honorary degree by Yerevian State
Medical University where some 400 Indian students are studying.

“THE FUTURE OF THE REGION IS THE EUROPEAN UNITED FAMILY”
National Assembly of RA, Armenia
Oct 6 2005
On October 5 RA NA President Artur Baghdasaryan received Goran
Lennmarker, OSCE PA Special Representative on Nagorno Karabakh
conflict.
During the meeting both sides the peaceful settlement of South
Caucasus regional conflicts and deepening of democracy, which will
give opportunity to the development of the regional countries with
the perspective of being integrated in the European big family.
At the request of Mr. Lennmarker RA NA President informed about the
process of constitutional reforms taking place in Armenia, after the
successful end of which other laws will also be changed complying
with European standards. Both sides highlighted the inclusion of the
whole society in the processes of constitutional reforms.
Elaborating on the current stage of the peaceful settlement of
Nagaorno Karabakh conflict, Mr. Lennmarker noted that his presented
report on the issue in Washington was very symbolically called
“Golden Opportunity,” and he really finds that both Azerbaijan and
Armenia a golden opportunity is created for overcoming the conflict
and progress. NA President Artur Baghdasaryan noted that Armenia was
for the peaceful settlement of the conflict and expressed a wish that
the key problem will get its peaceful and fair solution.
During the meeting the problems of the establishment of the
Armenian-Swedish inter-parliamentary relations were also discussed.