“At the moment, all sociological indicators show that Pashinyan will not be re-elected in any way.”– 168TVof “Zara has a question” he mentioned during the program Aram Orbelyan, manager-partner of “Concern Dialog” law office, specialist in international law, lawyer.

In this context, he did not comment in great detail on a number of Nikol Pashinyan’s statements, including the Declaration of Independence, considering that changes to the Constitution will not take place with the logic that is being tried to be presented today, and if there is a need for any constitutional changes, then after June 7, the people will discuss and understand.

“They want to remove the reference to the declaration of independence only at the request of Azerbaijan”,- he remarked.

According to him, the Constitution can always be improved, but its greatest value is stability.

“What do we have since 2018, when the Constitution came into force?” They changed the Constitution in order to capture the Constitutional Court in 2020, the rating system was removed, the Constitution has very clear guarantees that were clearly violated, and if we come to the point that we need to change the text so that this violation does not happen, it will become that we are saying that they did well that they are violating it.

The Constitution guarantees the apolitical nature of the Chief of the General Staff, he was elected by the National Assembly. What did they do? They said, “No, how will it be? I am the commander-in-chief. I cannot change the Chief of the General Staff. They changed the law and made him a deputy minister. Then the Constitutional Court instead said, “You know, there is a problem of separation of powers. What are you poking your nose at?” He said, “How can I not do it?” What happened to the NSS, a body subordinate to the Prime Minister? What is happening with the budget…” he added.

The international law specialist responded to the observation that the CC has recently been very synchronous with the authorities, and that the latest decision was made a few days ago, by which, in fact, the Constitutional Court decided that the laws adopted in an urgent manner regarding the ERC correspond to the Constitution, and to the question of whether there is a possibility to challenge it in some way, to return to this:

“For the sake of justice, we must claim that the Constitutional Court historically has not opposed the current authorities very clearly, which is logical. the problem here is not only political. in any case, the powers of the Constitutional Court, as a balancer, are somewhat restricted by the existing political-social situation.

There are several extremely obvious problematic issues in the HEC episode, at least a fundamental issue that concerns the return, that is, before the laws are changed, after the license is revoked, they apply and get a license again, the conditions may be a little different, a different investment program is discussed, etc. They said, “No, you can’t, you have to sell.”

What fate awaits HEC, we asked the interlocutor, reminding us that the interim manager, who entered HEC for the sake of the Republic of Armenia, announced that the process of nationalization of 100% of shares of HEC has entered the stage of regulation of recognition of public overriding interest.

“The biggest problem is that it is not his job, his job is (if we look at it from the point of view of the law) that the law should have ensured that the HEC successfully overcomes this crisis, if there was a crisis and the goal was to overcome the crisis.

In my opinion, some decisions will be made regarding the National Economic and Social Committee in a short time, these decisions will not have any consequences, because, as I mentioned, we will have a different reality on the 8th of the month.”

In his observations about TRIPP, the specialist is skeptical, taking into account the regional reality and the inconsistency of the statements.

“The investment is very good, do it, but it is very important that this investment does not suddenly turn out tomorrow that the translator made a wrong translation and it was not about the investment, but the expenses. we saw on Public Television how the wording “Armenia will receive something worth 9 billion from America” ​​turned into that America will invest 9 billion in Armenia,” said Orbelyan.

According to him, today there is a real agenda, and we see discussions with a real agenda. those discussions will lead to the fact that there must be a change on the 8th of the month, otherwise we can go to a deep dictatorship.

When going to a deeper dictatorship, the people who will help in this matter should think that those who did it in the previous 7-8 years are facing criminal responsibility today: high-ranking police officers, high-ranking officials of the Ministry of Defense. Some of the officials of Artsakh, who brought people to his rallies, left him alone in captivity in Azerbaijan and forbade them to speak. We are talking about Araik Harutyunyan.

I expect, by the way, that there will be a different result of the elections on the 7th, and I expect that on the 8th or 9th, a significant number of KP deputies will understand that they should express no confidence. It does not mean that we should underestimate the elections, we should consider the importance of the elections. the voter is the people, the people should vote, but on the 8th of the month there should be distrust.”

In other words, is the impeachment agenda realistic, we asked Aram Orbelyan, he answered: “It is not only realistic, but also mandatory, even more important if the elections are successful is.

CP deputies should understand that they will be destroyed. It will just destroy. his formulation “if I am not the prime minister, Armenia will not have a prime minister” is fixed for him, it always remains so.

What will happen before the 8th, what wrongdoing will happen, how will the criminal justice system be used to achieve this, we will see, but I expect that the people will not let their vote be taken away from them this time.»։

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Saudi in Arabia to remember are prince Salman name of shipping of the canal long ago of the project about

Maintaining the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass, is fraught with the collapse of energy markets, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on March 10. “The longer the disruptions continue, the more catastrophic the consequences will be for the global oil market and the global economy.” In 2025 results, the Saudi oil giant reported a 12 percent drop in profits due to weak demand.։

From Persia of the bay countries profit dependent will be Hormuz through the strait of navigation from restart. Supply long lasting interruptions can are influence most diverse sectors վրա՝ from aviation and: from agriculture until production and: navigationNasser warns.

Meanwhile From Persia in the bay of the conflict aggravation and: Hormuz of the strait actually blocking to the landscape Saudi Arabia in March restart is (9 year after) Salman strategic navigable of the canal (King Salman Canal) of the project processing: Saudi management ambitious the initiative in line with is «visionary 2030» of the program to logic, which is a national plan to diversify the economy with a gradual decrease in dependence on the export of energy resources. (aThis initiative is often linked s:with the larger ecosystem of Audi megaprojects such as the Neom project, which includes the 170km long The Line m:the construction of an ego city overlooking the Red Sea orand: its scale in recent years significantly reduced is and: It could even possibly be completely scrapped. Economic justifications for the huge costs involved the creation of new value chains in logistics, shipbuilding, industrial processing, irrigated agriculture. and: in the fields of tourism. According to some studies, desalinated water could be used to support agro-industrial centers in the desert, which would strengthen the country’s food security. Saudi Arabia already produces a significant proportion of its water consumption through desalination, which implies environmental consequences associated with waste disposal and high energy consumption).

The project, worth up to 250 billion dollars, involves the construction of an alternative trans-Arab waterway from the Persian Gulf (Dammam oil port) to the Red Sea (north of Yanbo). The final feasibility study of the project is expected to be presented in the fall of this year. The geopolitical rationale is to strengthen the Middle East’s transit role as a global logistics hub for trade between East and West.

The canal concept, which was first discussed in 2014-2015, envisages the construction of a 950-960 km artificial waterway that will cross the kingdom from east to west. According to the technical standards, which have been reconfirmed in expert circles, the width of the canal operation should be approximately 150 meters and the depth – 25 meters. These standards ensure the passage of large capacity tankers and container ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The direct costs of hydrotechnical infrastructure (earthworks, dredging, bank strengthening, etc.) will amount to 80 to 100 billion dollars. In addition, the comprehensive development of the route area, including the construction of adjacent ports, railway approaches, highways and the creation of a special economic zone along the highway, increases the final estimate to $250 billion.

The canal will mainly pass through the Rub el Khal sand desert, which is one of the largest in the world. An eastern entry point is assumed to be in the area of ​​the industrial/terminal clusters of Dammam and Jubail on the Saudi coast of the Persian Gulf. According to available information, the project is supported by Kuwait and Bahrain.

An alternative, more ambitious version of more than 1,200 km long involved the canal’s exit from Dammam to the Gulf of Aden (through South Yemen). Due to extremely high capital investment and political factors, including the need for lengthy negotiations and approvals with neighboring countries, this project was shelved in the mid-2010s.The King Salman Canal is considered not only as a shipping route, but also as an integration of the trans-Arab multifunctional transit and logistics corridor.

To remind, the following major pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz are currently in operation.

• Trans-Saudi oil pipeline through the same Rub el Khal desert (East-West Pipeline), which stretches about 1,260 km from a cluster of mines in the predominantly Shiite Eastern Province and the city of Abkeik to the Red Sea port of Yanbo. Capacity: 5 million barrels per day. As of the first ten days of March, the available capacity is approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. According to Nasser, the pipeline is expected to be fully utilized by transporting additional supplies, including storage stocks, to the port of Yanbo. Just Yanbo, Financial Times with data, 30 large tonnage tankers of the VLCC class, each of which can transport more than 2 million barrels of oil, will soon depart. The owners of the ships include Dynacom Tankers, Minerva Marine, Frontline, as well as the Chinese state-owned company Cosco. Some of the tankers fulfill Saudi Arabia’s long-term supply contracts, mainly to China, partly to India and South Korea. 

• Emirati ADCOP from North West UAE to Emirati Port of Fujairah on the Arabian Sea: The capacity is 1.8 million barrels per day, of which about 700,000 barrels are available per day.

• The 170-kilometer Al Haba (UAE) oil pipeline leading to Sohar port in northern Oman has an average capacity.

According to the IEA’s estimates, these bypasses together allow the pumping of approximately 3.6-5.6 million barrels of oil per day, that is, less than 30% of the monthly transportation through the Strait of Hormuz until February 28, 2026.

Plans have been announced in 2023-24 to increase the capacity of these pipelines and build about 650 km of new pipelines from Qatar through the border regions of Saudi Arabia to the terminal in Oman (near Muscat) and a branch of about 600 km from the East-West pipeline to Al-Humaida in Saudi Arabia on the Gulf of Aqaba near the Suez Canal. the port.

There were also reports of connecting Kuwait and Rumaila to that pipeline in southern Iraq, but before the current war, nothing was heard of the implementation of these projects in the region (As late as June 1957, the then Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Said, to the British authorities of “Treaty Oman” (later UAE) suggested Develop a project for an oil pipeline or sea canal across the Strait of Hormuz via the Omani land bridge, believing that over time the volume of oil shipments will be unlikely to pass through the strait, creating tanker traffic jams in both directions. The British considered this proposal untimely. A similar proposal was made by Shahnshah Pahlavi to the British and the fledgling emirates, followed by “that this is not a matter of the immediate future”).

Answering the question about the possible escorting of ships carrying oil by American warships, the head of Saudi Aramco said: “will support any action or measure that will help bring our products to customers.”

However, such steps will only increase the tension and will in no way affect Iran’s determination to adequately respond to the aggressors, including within the framework of “asymmetric” operations. It must be assumed that any alternative projects, pipelines, canals and other infrastructure facilities will also not be neglected, which testifies March 8 the incident, and not only that։

Earlier we wrote: With the aggression against Iran, the USA and Israel have largely “pulled” their partners from the Gulf Cooperation Council, where up to 90% of food and other basic products of daily demand are imported, and there is no doubt that they will be convinced of this more than once.

According to some observers, the protracted conflict could lead to stagflation, a combination of slowing economic growth and high inflation, which would hardly bring the King Salman Canal and other similar projects closer to completion.

DMITRI NEFYODOV

fondsk.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Ignoring the warning of the Ministry of Finance, the government, as always, guided by political expediency, decided to increase pensions.

The increase of pensions, no matter how much it is necessary, is not provided with financial means, because from the beginning the government did not allocate money for it in the state budget. They raised it on assumptions. One thing that has worried the Ministry of Finance in terms of what these expenses will be paid for. Especially since we are talking about quite serious money.

According to the government’s calculations, almost 79 billion drams are needed to increase pensions and benefits. After approving the budget, that amount was not included in the expenses. In accordance with the projected incomes of the budget, they set the expenses, which, however, do not include the 79 billion drams needed for raising pensions.

Based on that, the Ministry of Finance has warned that in this way they are creating risks for the budgets of this and future years.

“Taking into account the political and social resonance of the presented proposal, nevertheless, from the point of view of fiscal stability, we consider it necessary to note that in this case it refers to 2026. and about the significant increase in current expenses for the following years, which will lead to significant inertial increases in the social expenses of the base budget in the following years and will significantly limit the opportunities of the RA government to spend in other directions.

If we add to the latter the existing fiscal restrictions, as well as significant fiscal pressures on current expenses arising from the universal health insurance system and additional spending needs generated in many other directions in 2026. and for the following years, we consider the presented proposal to be quite risky,” the Ministry of Finance had warned about the government’s initiative to increase pensions, but the government ignored that warning.

Meanwhile, the risks related to fiscal stability mean that the budget may face problems in servicing these expenses, because the financial sources that will be used to pay for the increase in pensions are not known. Especially, the hasty introduction of health insurance increased the burden on the budget. Budgetary funds intended for that purpose may run out in the middle of the year, as was usually the case with state orders, and additional funds may be needed. It is not known where the money will be taken from.

It was not enough, without financial security, they decided to increase pensions and add a completely new burden to the budget. The risk of losing power forced them to take that step, and now, in hindsight, they have started looking for funds to pay the pensions.

They say that we have additional expectations of tax revenues. The question arises, if there were such expectations, why were they not included in the state budget approved just a few months ago?

There are 2 options: those expectations are false and unfounded, or they were deliberately hidden at the time.

The most likely thing is that there were no such expectations, they could not have arisen in such a short time. Just before the elections, they decided to create false grounds for raising pensions.

What will they do if those expectations do not come true tomorrow? At the moment, there is no reason to claim that the budget revenues will be more than planned and that they will cover the costs of raising pensions.

The other question is what will happen if these revenues are not received, should we say that the increase of pensions should be done retrospectively?

Naturally, until the elections do something, they will cut money here and there to cover the costs of raising pensions. After the elections, the risks that the budget may face with servicing the entire financial burden are quite real. And at that time, both the payment of pensions and the fulfillment of other budget expenses will become problematic.

It is an adventure to put the budget in front of such danger for political purposes. But it is not for today’s rulers of Armenia.

Without grounds and justifications, they claim that 40 billion of the 79 billion necessary for increasing pensions will be filled at the expense of additional taxes from the budget. Where did they get that the tax revenues of the approved budget will exceed by 40 billion? Nikol Pashinyan is so entangled in his lies that he makes blatantly false statements at the government meeting. He says that last year we collected 30 billion drams more tax revenue than planned, and none of the members of the government dares to correct his “innocent” mistake. According to last year’s approved budget, they planned to collect 2 trillion 720 billion drams, they collected 2 trillion 725 billion in taxes. They didn’t make a single 30 billion overdraft. Where did he get that the tax revenues of the budget exceeded by 30 billion last year?

With such false justifications, they cherish the hope that this year they will collect at least 40 billion drams more in taxes than planned and with that amount they will cover half of the costs of increasing pensions. The first 2 months of the tax year are already in the past and the taxes collected in those months do not give such grounds at all. What’s more, in the near future, both economic and budgetary problems may worsen due to regional instability and the expected activation of internal political processes in Armenia.

They intend to take the other half of the money needed for increasing pensions from the reserve fund. They forgot what the reserve fund is for.

The reserve fund is for stabilizing the country’s economic and financial situation in case of force majeure. And what are the current rulers of Armenia doing? They are trying to solve their political and reproduction problems with the reserve fund money, ignoring possible future dangers.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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“Classes” the guest in the program Hrant Bagratyan, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Chairman of the “Freedom” Party, spoke About the attacks of the USA and Israel against Iran and the prospect of that war.

«Whatever war happens, Iran will not have a food problem because they are ready for this war. Iran’s missile facilities operate underground, so there is no good news for Israel’s Tsakhal in this regard. I don’t think that the American-Israeli forces will win this war,” said Hrant Bagratyan.

According to him: In Israel, they understood that they cannot succeed without a land invasion, but in that case Iran will mobilize 5 million soldiers. Artillery will also be used. 

“The Persians fight to the end and do not sell their homeland for money. I don’t see a perspective for the USA, I can’t imagine what it will do in 1 year. Neither the US nor Israel have fired hypersonic missiles, and Iran is firing ballistic missiles that are not intercepted by Israeli air defenses. Moreover, Iran does not hit settlements. And Israel hit Minab Girls’ School. Such brutality has never been seen in world history. Sooner or later the slap in the face will come. This will not go unanswered,” said Hrant Bagratyan.

Details in the video.

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