ARMENIAN ARMY 45,000-PEOPLE STRONG
AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian has said his country’s
troops are 45,000 people strong, explaining this by the current
situation in the South Caucasus region.
Touching upon the plight and structure of the three-million nation’s
forces, Sarkisian said it is common knowledge that the Armenian
military consists of infantry regiment units and the air force. The
troops are not centralized in any way and have no local headquarters.
“There is only one chief HQ overseeing all of the armed forces. This
involves commanding separate corps, artillery units and air defense
forces,” said the minister, who also serves as secretary of the
Armenian National Security Council. Sarkisian, who attended military
training in the occupied Azeri territories last week, maintained that
despite his country’s adherence to peace talks, it should improve
its military in the meantime. Sarkisian’s statements at a time of
intensifying international efforts to accelerate the peace process
once again prove that the root-cause of the long-standing dispute
is not the aspiration of Garabagh Armenians to self-determination,
but Yerevan’s occupation plans. The Armenian minister trying to cover
up his country’s policy of aggression explained his participation in
the illegal training activities by what he called Yerevan’s acting
as guarantor for the security of the self-proclaimed republic until
the Garabagh conflict is settled.

OMBUDSMEN OF BSEC GATHER IN ISTANBUL
AzerTag, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
Ombudsmen of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation
(BSEC) have gathered in Istanbul, Turkey, to discuss role of ombudsman
institution in strengthening democracy.
The two-day conference organized with the assistance of the
Parliamentary Assembly of BSEC started on April 26.
Addressing the meeting, former Turkish President Suleyman Demirel
expressed hope that ombudsmen would contribute to bring peace and
stability to the region.
Human rights commissioner of Azerbaijan Mrs. Elmira Suleymanova spoke
of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
She said over one million Azerbaijani nationals were forced to flee
their homelands and became refugees or internally displaced persons
(IDP) in result of 18-years long Armenian aggression.
Mrs. Suleymanova also called on all the human rights defenders to step
up their efforts to help Azerbaijani refugees return to their homes.
The conference will last until April 27.

BAKU RUBBISHES TURKISH WEBSITE REPORT
AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
Azerbaijan will launch an attack on Armenia in the coming days, a
Turkish report has said. Azerbaijani officials have dismissed it as
groundless. Turkish hurhaber.com website quoted diplomatic sources as
saying that the Azeri government has made serious preparations for
liberating Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh from occupation and that Baku
has passed a decision to restart hostilities.
Armenia has occupied 20% of Azeri territory in defiance of
international law since the war broke out in the early 1990s which
has claimed thousands of lives and displaced 700,000 of Azeris from
their homes. The report linked the expanding US-Azeri relations to
the military action to be waged in Garabagh, saying that US President
George Bush welcomes the idea of launching military action. The website
also indicated that the operations would affect the oil price. Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian said the Garabagh conflict could
not be settled through war, which is confirmed by EU representatives.
“Military action by Azerbaijan may become its last mistake,”
he said when commenting on the Turkish site’s report in a news
conference held jointly with Austrian Foreign Ministry Secretary of
State Hans Vinkler. “Azerbaijan may restart war only when all hope
for peace is gone. However, the Azeri leadership can’t make this
decision on its own,” Oskanian said. Oskanian added that Armenia
would closely follow the talks on the Garabagh conflict to be held
during President Ilham Aliyev’s upcoming visit to Washington. Armenian
Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian could not help voicing his concerns
over Azerbaijan’s warnings about the resumption of military action
and the country’s growing military expenditure. “We are not afraid
of war but don’t want it to flare up. An agreement [ceasefire] on
ending hostilities was reached in 1994 with Russia’s mediation. Our
troops have already taken preeminent defense positions and we have
been invigorating our positions with engineering facilities over the
past 12 years,” he said. He said the Caucasus is a very small area,
which makes regional countries dependent on each other. “For this
reason, a resumption of military action could bring about negative
consequences for us,” the Armenian defense chief said. Sarkisian
claimed that Azerbaijan’s statements that its military spending
has doubled are nothing but “blackmail”. Former Armenian foreign
minister Alexander Arzumanian said he does not expect any drastic
changes in the conflict resolution. “However, considering Azerbaijan’s
statements made following the two presidents’ meeting in the French
town of Rambouillet, it is not ruled out that this country may resume
military operations.” Azerbaijan threatened to use force to free its
territories from Armenian occupation after the latest unsuccessful
round of talks between the two countries’ leaders. The Azeri Defense
Ministry spokesman, Ilgar Verdiyev, said the report contradicts
reality and peace talks are underway. The Foreign Ministry official,
Tahir Taghizada, declined to comment on such “rubbish” published by
the Turkish site. He said Azerbaijan is still adhering to a peaceful
option to resolve the dispute, but warned that the Azeri people’s
patience was not boundless and the country “won’t negotiate for
the sake of negotiating”. If the talks yield no fruit, Azerbaijan
reserves the right to regain its lands no matter what it takes,
Taghizada said. The outgoing US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Reno Harnish,
said on Friday it was necessary to get rid of the military rhetoric
to resolve the long-standing dispute. “A resumption of hostilities
in the Caucasus could completely destroy the region.” The diplomat
said the negotiations to settle the conflict had intensified over the
past two years. “Tangible results have been achieved in agreeing the
principles of a fair and lasting peace,” Harnish said, adding that
Washington would continue to do its utmost to accomplish the goal.

IRAN SEEKING CLOSER TIES AMID RISING TENSION WITH US
AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
A high-ranking Iranian military official held talks in Azerbaijan
last week in what many see as the neighboring country’s attempt to
forge closer ties amid escalating tensions with the United States.
The Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Muhammad Najjar said the Azeri
leader’s upcoming talks in Washington could alter the U.S. policy
on Iran.
“We believe President Ilham Aliyev will urge American officials to
see things the way they are and be rational. This may convince them to
abandon their actions. But this does not mean Azerbaijanis will act as
mediators, as they can only explain our position to Americans,” Najjar
told the press after talks with officials in Baku on Thursday. Western
countries suspect Iran of seeking nuclear weapons under the cover of
a civilian atomic program, a charge Iran denies saying its uranium
enrichment activities are peaceful.
The UN Security Council has lately given Iran 30 days to comply owing
to the pressure built by the US. The Iranian embassy on Friday flatly
dismissed media reports suggesting that the defense minister tabled
the issue of Azerbaijan’s mediation in US-Iran talks. The Iranian
minister described the reports saying the US plans to declare a war
on Iran as mere talk. “We have never been afraid of Americans. The
US has been threatening Iran for 27 years and this is not new to
us. We are ready to resolve all issues through talks, but if we are
confronted with something, we are ready to deal with it,” Najjar
said. US President George Bush says he is using diplomacy to curb
Iran’s atomic ambitions, but does not rule out a military option,
including a nuclear strike, to prevent the Islamic republic from
acquiring nuclear weapons. “Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful, but
some countries trying to present it as a source of tension will not
achieve their goal. We do not see implementation of the program as
such and intend to proceed with it,” the minister said. Najjar said
consistent work in this area is underway and his country continues
to develop its atomic program in compliance with the demands and
wishes of millions of Iranians. “We have already completed uranium
enrichment and even held celebrations on this occasion attended by
the Azeri ambassador to Tehran Abbasali Hasanov,” he said. Najjar
dismissed reports saying his country is cooperating with Armenia in
the military field. “This information is completely wide of the mark.
This has never happened and will not happen.” The Iranian minister
said his country is interested in expanding military ties with
Azerbaijan. “The goal of my visit is to expand collaboration
in line with the agreements signed by our countries. Tehran may
assist Azerbaijan in developing its defense industry and we can
exchange relevant experience,” he said. Azerbaijani Defense Minister
Safar Abiyev called on Iran to assist Azerbaijan in finding a fair
settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper (Nagorno)
Garabagh, during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He emphasized
that Armenia’s policy is the main obstacle for security in the
region. Muhammad Najjar, in turn, said his country is ready to provide
such assistance, adding that Iran has always supported Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity. An MP from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party,
Mubariz Gurbanli, said Azerbaijan plans to stick to a balanced policy
on the crisis over Iran. “Azerbaijan and Iran have an agreement banning
the use of their territories by another country for an offensive on
either state. Azerbaijan remains faithful to the document.” However,
many in the country doubt Baku will be able to retain its neutral
stance on the Iran issue. The editor-in-chief of opposition Azadlig
newspaper, Ganimat Zahidov, says that in the best-case scenario, the
Azeri government, taking into account the balance of forces, may trim
its sails either in favor of the US or Iran. “By defending the United
States, Azerbaijan may come under overt and indirect interference
on the part of Iran. A recent visit by the Iranian defense minister
to Baku indicated how dangerous this may be,” Zahidov said. Zahidov
said, however, supporting Iran could pose even a greater threat. “It
should be taken into account that Azerbaijan is facing a sensitive
problem like the Upper Garabagh conflict. Defending Iran would prove
even more perilous.” The newspaper editor went on to say that acting
as Iran’s partner could also hamper Azerbaijan’s integration into
Europe. “This could be a setback for the country both in terms of
human rights and economic development.
Moreover, its position on the Garabagh conflict may weaken,” said
Zahidov. Nonetheless, some experts say that supporting Iran could
bring Azerbaijan certain dividends. The Azadlig editor said joining
the international anti-Iran coalition could considerably strengthen
the country’s ties with the United States, but warned that it would
be hard to fathom the potential benefits. In general, the Azeri
public does not support moves to join the anti-Iran coalition and is
opposed to granting permission for the use of the country’s territory
for a possible strike. A launch of hostilities could have dire
ramifications. Apart from the threats arising in borderline regions,
hostilities would affect Iran’s 30-million ethnic Azeri population.
The director of the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard University
Brenda Shaffer says there was a specific objective behind the Iranian
defense minister’s visit. “The Iranians are interested in showing
to the world that they have good relations with neighbors because
in the event of [US] sanctions or military action, the reaction of
Iran’s neighbors will have to be reckoned with. This, however, does
not mean that the Iranian minister has been putting any pressure
on Azerbaijan,” Shaffer said. With regard to the possibility that
Azerbaijan may broker a US-Iranian dialogue, Shaffer said it was
possible, albeit not necessary. “The point is that Iran already has
such relations with Russia and Europe and there is no need for yet
another mediator,” she said. She said it was highly unlikely that Iran
might provide Azerbaijan with any assistance in its conflict with
Armenia over Garabagh. “Iran has forged warm relations with Armenia
and Upper Garabagh in particular. When I was in Garabagh, I saw a
great number of Iranian cars there. Obviously, this being the case,
Iran would not be able to provide any assistance to Azerbaijan,”
Shaffer said. As far as President Ilham Aliyev’s upcoming visit to
the US is concerned, the researcher said it was a major success of the
Azerbaijani diplomacy. She said it showed the geo-strategic importance
Azerbaijan represents to the USA. “In the event of economic sanctions
against Iran, Azerbaijan’s borders will represent special importance
to the West. Obviously the issue will be discussed by Presidents Ilham
Aliyev and George Bush. Under such circumstances, Aliyev may well say
to his US counterpart that while Azerbaijan is actively cooperating
with the West in such important issues, Baku was also in need of the
West’s cooperation in resolving the Garabagh conflict. This meeting
could produce tangible results,” Shaffer said.

THE MOSCOW-TBILISI RAILWAY LINE: THE ARMENIAN PERSPECTIVE AND THE ABKHAZ HURDLE
By M. Alkhazashvili
The Messenger, Georgia
April 27 2006
A quadripartite Russian-Georgian-Armenian-Abkhaz consortium will be
responsible for taking care of the restoration-rehabilitation work
that needs to be done on the Abkhaz section of the Tbilisi-Moscow
railway line. This project is estimated to cost between USD 150-250
million and it is up to the consortium members to find this money.
In December 2005 a Russian-Georgian intergovernmental economic
commission agreed to tackle this project.
Then the governments of the two countries ordered their railway
departments to create a joint Georgian-Russian consortium to oversee
the restoration of the Abkhaz railway. After this was done, the two
sides agreed to create an international consortium. Even as early
as December 2005 it was clear that both Armenia and Abkhazia would
become members of the consortium. The opening of this railway has a
vital importance for Armenia, which has closed borders with two of
its neighbors – Turkey and Azerbaijan. This rail link will finally
provide the country with a relatively efficient way to trade on a
large scale with its regional strategic partner, Russia.
The fact that Abkhazia is represented in the consortium as an
independent entity is an expression of Georgian goodwill. The
consortium’s quotas are distributed as follows: Russia – 50 percent;
Georgia – 30 percent, and Armenia and Abkhazia have 10 percent each,
the newspaper Khvalindeli Dghe reports.
The participation of Armenia and separatist Abkhazia in the consortium
was initially met with controversy in Georgian society, although
many observers strongly support the idea that the Abkhaz side is
represented in the consortium as a separate unit.
“This is very profitable for Georgia because Sukhumi will once again
see that the Georgian side is ready to consider their interests,”
explained Paata Zakareishvili, a conflict resolution specialist,
as quoted by the newspaper Khvalindeli Dghe.
The most problematic issue connected with the reopening of this
railway is that of customs control. The Abkhaz side is categorically
against the opening of a Georgian customs office in Psou on the
Abkhaz section of what Tbilisi considers to be the Georgian-Russian
border. At the same time the Georgian side is just as unbending and
has stated repeatedly that they will not compromise towards the issue.
“We will not discuss the border question – for us it is a closed
issue. We will continue to take part in tariff negotiations, and how
the revenues from this railway should be divided. As for the border,
negotiations surrounding this issue are ruled out. Psou is on the
Georgian-Russian border and that’s that,” declared Irakli Alasania,
presidential assistant for the resolution of the Abkhaz conflict,
the newspaper Khvalindeli Dghe reports.

AZERI PRESIDENT REGARDS NK CONFLICT AS HIS COUNTRY’S MAJOR PROBLEM
Author: Z.Ibrahimli
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev regards the conflict with Armenia on
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as his country’s major problem. He made
a statement while addressing to the foreign Relations Council which
commenced his first official visit to the United States, Trend reports.
The President voiced his hope that the current talks on
Nagorno-Karabakh will create necessary conditions for just and durable
peace, based on the principles of the international law. “We hope
that the United States as super power and OSCE Minsk Group co-chair
will contribute in the resolution of the conflict,” Aliyev underlined.
Baku is sure that such way of settlement can be peaceable and only
the international rule of law can be a base for talks. The territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan is recognized by UN and all world countries,
except Armenia, he stated.
Russian Ambassador Steven Mann, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair,
who was present in the gathering, told ITAR-TASS that he was gong
to visit Moscow next week for next round of consultations which
his counterparts. He is in optimistic mood, noting his feeling for
‘efficient base for compromise’. The US Ambassador particularly noted
as important principle the refusal from the attempts of complete
resolution of the exiting problems. He clarified that the current
approach was contradictory: movement forward step by step and leaving
some difficult issues for future, ITAR-TASS reports.

AZERBAIJAN ATTACHES STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE TO COOPERATION WITH USA VISIT OF AZERBAIJAN PRESIDENT TO USA MEETING AT COUNCIL OF FOREIGN RELATIONS
[April 26, 2006, 12:01:15]
AzerTag, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, in the frame of his first visit
to the United States, on 26 April held a meeting at the Council on
Foreign Relations in Washington.
The former US president’s National Security Advisor general Brent
Scowcroft opened the meeting. He updated on the biography of Ilham
Aliyev, noting that Azerbaijan is one of the strategic partners of the
United States. Speaking of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh
conflict, he said the Armenian troops had occupied territories of
Azerbaijan. He appraised Azerbaijan’s efforts for settlement of the
conflict and stressed they would and henceforth support Azerbaijan’s
fair position.
President Ilham Aliyev gave a speech. He, in particular, said
Azerbaijan experiences the period of development. He spoke of
hardships in the first years of independence, on the socio-political
situation that led the country to verge of civil war. And when
Heydar Aliyev returned to power in the Republic, it was he who
established socio-political stability in the country and launched
many international projects.
President Aliyev said Azerbaijan attaches strategic importance
to partnership with the United States of America. There is mutual
understanding on cooperation with USA in the field of safety and
economy, he stressed.
The President informed on riches of Azerbaijan and the huge investments
involved in the country’s economy. He also gave detailed information on
the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh conflict, its hard sequences
and negotiation process for settlement of the problem.
President Ilham Aliyev answered many questions.
The head of the Azerbaijan State also dwelt on the Azerbaijan-Russia
relations, noting these ties successfully develop. Azerbaijan is on
economic progress and never will become a space of confrontation,
he emphasized.
President Aliyev responded the questions on democratization process
in Azerbaijan, bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and USA and
“orange revolutions”.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERBAIJAN IN ZUGZWANG: INTERVIEW WITH SARDAR JALALOGLU
Regnum. Russia
April 27 2006
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has started his visit to the US on
April 25. If the official agenda of his visit is widely known, his
“offstage” talks with US President George Bush are widely discussed.
In an interview to REGNUM one of the leaders of the Azeri opposition,
the first vice chairman of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Sardar
Jalaloglu gives his view of the true reason of Aliyev’s visit to
the US.
REGNUM: Why was President Aliyev invited to the US exactly now and
not one or two years ago?
Now the US has several priorities in Azerbaijan. The first priority
is to control the oil of the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea or, if
possible, of the whole Caspian basin. The second priority is to resolve
the Karabakh conflict as soon as possible to be able to safely and
uninterruptedly pump up oil from the Caspian Sea and also, possibly,
to launch military actions against stubborn Iran next spring. The
third priority is to spread democracy over the world and to ensure
civil freedoms.
It was exactly because of Azerbaijan’s poor democracy – mass fraud
during the last presidential and parliamentary elections, maltreatment
of the opposition and dispersal of its rallies – that the White House
refrained from inviting Aliyev. And now he was invited exactly because
of the growing tensions over Iran, the necessity of early resolution
in Karabakh and early launch of the “big pipe” – Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.
REGNUM: Can one or another geo-political situation force Azerbaijan
to take direct or indirect part in the anti-Iranian coalition the US
is said to be knocking together?
I think that the extent of Azerbaijan’s involvement in the anti-Iranian
coalition is the key topic of the coming meeting of the US and Azeri
presidents. This is exactly why Bush has closed his eyes on the
anti-democratic nature of the Azeri authorities and has grudgingly
welcomed Aliyev. The situation Azerbaijan is facing now is called
zugzwang in the chess terminology – any move leads to defeat.
But the country still has one move – to equally distance itself from
the US and Iran. I hope that Aliyev will manage to do it.
REGNUM: Will they in Washington pressure the Azeri President in the
Karabakh issue?
I should note that the Karabakh problem cannot be solved without
Russia’s consent. Even if Aliyev yields to a hypothetical pressure
and concedes, that will not be a final solution. Of course, they
will talk about the Karabakh problem, but I don’t believe they will
make a serious breakthrough without considering Moscow’s interests
and positions. I also doubt that Washington will pressure Baku in
the issue.
REGNUM: Will the sides discuss other issues and what agreements may
they conclude?
I think that the US President will certainly mention the problems
of human rights, fair elections, political and economic reforms,
democracy development in Azerbaijan. Aliyev will certainly give an
oral consent to the US President just as his father did. In any case,
the pragmatic US administration itself is not very much eager to
develop democracy in Azerbaijan, which was proved by the last autumn
parliamentary elections and the post-electoral period, including the
severe dispersal of the November 26 rally. Even if signed, the possible
written agreements will be just declarations without specific content.
REGNUM: Some experts say that in his time Aliyev Senior gave Washington
a number of promises his son is forced to keep now. Is that true?
Aliyev Senior publicly told Clinton that he would develop democracy
in Azerbaijan without fail. As you remember, after that the sides
signed the Contract of the Century and other oil contracts. Heydar
Aliyev readily gave similar promissory notes in the UN and other
international organizations. And when he was asked about results, he
artfully found thousands of convincing explanations why democratic
processes in his country were slow. Though assuring everybody that
he continues the cause of his father, Ilham Aliyev has, in fact,
disavowed his promises. One example is his proposal to start the
Karabakh peace talks from zero. It seems he has started from zero
with the West and Russia too.
Many are misled by external entourage – Heydar Aliyev schools,
monuments… But, in reality, Ilham Aliyev is acting differently –
even his ways to keep his power are tougher. So, I don’t think that
he will be asked to pay the old bills, whatever they are.
REGNUM: What will Aliyev’s Washington voyage give to Azerbaijan and
the whole South Caucasus?
Paradoxical as this may sound, an invitation to Washington now –
after two long years of hope – is the last thing Aliyev would want
to get. He will hardly get anything in such a complicated and highly
tensed international situation. As regards the region, it is too
heterogeneous for being taken as a whole. In Georgia power is in
the hands of democrats, in Azerbaijan and Armenia – illegitimate
anti-national regimes. The latter gives much to big importance to its
alliance with Russia and forgets that it is a part of the region with
all ensuring consequences. So, Aliyev’s visit to Washington will change
nothing in either the region or Azerbaijan. Still one can’t rule out
the possibility of a fiasco, which will put our country in a fix.
REGNUM: Is the growing number of visits by Iranian leaders to
Azerbaijan a coincidence?
Of course not. Iran was very much worried about the forthcoming visit
of Aliyev to the US. They in Tehran perfectly realized what the visit
will be about and did their best to neutralize Baku. It was for
this very purpose that the Iranian military minister came to Baku
and offered the country all possible benefits, up to the building
of a defense complex. The coming visit of the Iranian president is
also for the same purpose, whatever its seeming reasons might be. I
would like to say once again that Azerbaijan is facing very serious
threats in case of US military operations in Iran: missile strikes
(when the losing side already has nothing to lose) on cities, oil
pipeline, industrial facilities; an army of refugees – Iranian Azeris;
plenty of other secondary problems.

BUSH COURTS AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT AS PART OF BUILD-UP AGAINST IRAN
By Simon Whelan
World Socialist Web Site, MI
April 27 2006
Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev is to meet President George W.
Bush on April 28 in Washington. The surprise invitation extended to
Aliyev is wholly due to Azerbaijan’s geographical proximity to Iran,
Washington’s next likely military target.
Aliyev presides over one of the most corrupt economies in the world.
An ongoing fraud trial in New York has provided evidence of enormous
bribes and shakedowns at SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, in
the late 1990s. Aliyev was the vice president of SOCAR at the time
of these alleged scandals.
The ruling Aliyev clan, first under the presidency of Heidar Aliyev,
and then since 2003 his son Ilham, has yet to preside over a free and
fair election. Since their failure to win the corrupt 2003 election,
Azerbaijan’s political opposition has hoped the Aliyev regime would
be weakened by its international pariah status. By inviting Aliyev to
Washington the Bush administration has burst these presumptions. The
invite was extended just one month after a US State Department report
strongly criticised the suppression of human rights in Azerbaijan
under Aliyev.
Whilst the Azerbaijani ruling elite has rejoiced at the invite,
some commentators in Baku have suggested that Aliyev is less than
delighted-not least because he is likely to be told in no uncertain
terms that his government must side with Washington in hostile
actions against Iran. The Eurasia Daily Monitor posed the question,
“Aliyev’s Invitation to the White House: A Blessing or a Curse?”
whilst C.J. Chivers suggested in the New York Times that the visit
meant that for Washington “Oil and location trump all other concerns.”
Since it came to power in the early 1990s the Aliyev clan has been
courted by both the Clinton and Bush administrations. Not only does
the country possess considerable reserves of oil and gas, but its
proximity to the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea makes
it especially valuable. The recently opened Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline which transports Caspian oil to Western markets
circumnavigates both Russia and Iran at the insistence of Washington.
A similar route is followed by a gas pipeline currently in construction
and close to completion.
Domestically, Azerbaijani government officials have sought to ridicule
suggestions of their recruitment into a military coalition against
Iran. Azeri Foreign Minister Araz Hasanov recently told television
reporters, “The reports are untrue. Moreover, how can this happen in
the absence of such a coalition?”
But Azerbaijan has little room for manoeuvre. Aliyev’s ministers speak
reassuringly of the Azerbaijani and Iranian peoples sharing a common
Shia Muslim culture, but regional political analyst Zafar Guliyev
told the Day.az web site just after the invite was made public, “I
think they [the Americans] will try to get Azerbaijan’s approval for
using their territory against Iran. To get Azerbaijan’s participation
in the coalition is as important as it was during the Iraq campaign.”
Guliyev explained, “For the time being, the Azerbaijani government
did well balancing in its foreign policy, but there are moments when
choice is inevitable.”
In March, Assistant US Secretary of State Daniel Fried stated
that Washington was feeding the Azerbaijani government information
concerning their plans for Iran “because Azerbaijan has the right
to be aware about it.” Fried added that he looked forward to the two
countries reaching consensus on the issue.
The Azerbaijani government already cooperates with Washington’s
so-called war against terror by providing troops for the occupation
of Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo. The Aliyev regime has supported the
military encirclement of Iran by granting US forces over-flight rights
above Azeri territory. The Azerbaijani authorities are also assisting
American armed forces with a Pentagon-sponsored modernisation of a
former Soviet airfield that could be used by the US when completed.
Former United Nations weapons inspector Scott Ritter suggested in an
article for Al Jazeera last summer that the US military is setting up
the infrastructure for an enormous military presence in Azerbaijan
that will be utilised for a land-based campaign designed to capture
Tehran. He believes CIA paramilitary operatives and US Special Forces
are training Azerbaijani forces into special force units capable of
operating within Iran and mobilising the large Azeri ethnic minority
within Iran.
The Azeri minority is based predominately in the country’s northwest,
what is called the Northern Tier of the Middle East, where Iran shares
borders with Turkey and with the South Caucasus states of Azerbaijan
and Armenia. The term Azerbaijan was the name given to the geographical
area on either side of the Araxes River long before the designation
of a distinct Azeri ethnic group.
While estimates vary, it is widely believed that the number of ethnic
Azeris living in Iran is at least double the population of Azerbaijan
itself, which numbers approximately 8 million. Sources close to Tehran
speak of 15 million, while Azeri separatists claim 30 million.
Azerbaijanis are easily the largest ethnic minority inside Iran,
outnumbering Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen and Baluchis. They are also
considered by regional commentators to be the best integrated ethnic
minority in Iran, sharing with ethnic Persians Islamic Shia beliefs.
Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni was born in
Khamenah, a city in the Iranian West Azerbaijan province. Khameni is
half Azeri by birth and speaks the language.
Large sections of the Tehran bazaar are controlled by Iranian Azeris
and in the upper ranks of the military ethnic Azeris are numerous.
However, nationalist and separatist sentiment was given a large boost
by the formation of an Azerbaijani nation state in 1991 when capitalism
was restored in the former Soviet Union. Not wishing to see an Azeri
state flourish and thereby bolster separatist Azeri tendencies within
Iran, Tehran set out to destabilise Azerbaijan by supporting Armenia
and maintaining the war of attrition in Nagorno-Karabakh.
This tilting towards Yerevan by Tehran pushed the government in Baku to
more firmly move into Turkey’s orbit and encouraged both anti-Russian
and anti-Iranian policies. The Popular Front administration of
Abulfaz Elcibey which ruled briefly between 1992 and 1993 pushed
Tehran further in an anti-Azerbaijani direction by making pan-Azeri
noises and claiming that Iran was a “doomed state.”
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran improved somewhat when Ilham’s
father, Heidar Aliyev, pushed out Elcibey. However, recent altercations
between the two states over the carve-up of Caspian oil and gas have
set relations back once again.
An Azeri separatist movement exists in Iran in the shape of the
National Liberation Movement of South Azerbaijan (NLMSA). But it is
unclear just how much influence or support it has.
A further advantage of using Azerbaijan for an assault upon Iran is
the short flight distances for US military aircraft. Ritter believes
that by flying out of Azerbaijani bases, American military forces
can maintain a round-the-clock dominance of Iranian airspace.
A coastal road running alongside the Caspian Sea extends all the
way from Azerbaijan to Tehran. In this regard, Ritter explained how
US military planners have already begun war games calling for the
deployment of multi-divisional forces into Azerbaijan. In addition
logistical planning is at a well advanced stage regarding basing US
air and ground forces within Azerbaijan.

SABINA FREIZER: “US SHOULD THINK OF NK CONFLICT SETTLEMENT”
Today, Azerbaijan
April 27 2006
“Energy and security issues are likely to dominate the 28 April meeting
of President Bush and President Ilham Aliyev. It will be Aliyev’s
first visit since becoming Head of the oil-rich state bordering both
Russia and Iran; and Teheran’s nuclear ambitions are undoubtedly one
of the main reasons Aliyev has been invited to the White House.”
As APA reports, International Crises Group Caucasus project leader
Sabina Freizer has told that while expressing her attitude to
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the US. Sabina Freizer
stated that if the U.S. is keen to protect its energy and security
interests, the main issue on the table should be the unresolved
conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. For more than a decade, only a shaky
cease-fire has kept Armenia and Azerbaijan from resuming their
full-scale fighting over the small mountainous territory wedged
between them and Iran. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and soon
to be completed Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, which Washington
sees as critical to the West’s energy security, pass within 30 miles
of this flashpoint.
In the past months, President Aliyev has intensified his bellicose
rhetoric, threatening to withdraw from peace talks and to militarily
recapture all territories currently occupied by Armenian backed
forces. He doubled the 2005 military budget to $600 million in 2006,
over 16% of Azerbaijan’s total budget. He has also pledged to make
military spending equal to the entire state budget of Armenia, and,
propped up by oil revenues, the Azeri leader’s threat is very real.
In Washington President Aliyev should be told clearly that a military
resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unacceptable.
Instead, the US Government should – while making clear that it will
be pressing Armenia equally strongly – push Azerbaijan to accept
now the principles of a comprehensive peace deal which would include
the renunciation of the use of force, the incremental withdrawal of
Armenian-backed forces from all occupied territories around Nagorno
Karabakh, the safe and voluntary return of all displaced persons,
the reopening of all transport and trade routes closed as a result
to the conflict, and a guarantee that the people of Nagorno Karabakh
will be given the right to self-determination based on a referendum
to be held after clear conditions are met.
This is close to what the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe proposed in February, but there was little international
pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to encourage them to sign the
deal. As a first step President Aliyev should allow people-to-people
contacts between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides.
Until now, the Bush Administration has claimed to have a
three-dimensional approach to Azerbaijan, focusing on security,
energy, and freedom through reform. President Aliyev was not granted
an earlier visit to the White House because the 2003 presidential
elections were considered to be seriously flawed and were followed by a
violent crackdown on the opposition. The 2005 Azerbaijani Parliamentary
Elections were another disappointment, which should have precluded an
invitation to Aliyev less than six months after they were held. Some
of the three dimensions are clearly more important than others.
Even as democratic reform was lagging, Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld traveled to Baku three times in 2003-2005. Most observers
in Baku consider these visits to be cementing the relationships that
could ease the way for the possible deployment of American troops
in Azerbaijan to be used in actions against Iran. Today’s invitation
may be part of the Bush Administration’s attempts to ratchet up the
pressure on Tehran. Interestingly, however, Aliyev is preparing to
welcome Iranian President Ahmadinejad in Baku in May, the second such
meeting in Azerbaijan after the two countries signed a non aggression
pact last year.
According to Sabina Freizer, if US wants to ensure Azerbaijan’s
long-term support of its policies towards Iran, and overall regional
security, its best bet is to first focus on securing a peaceful
resolution of the existing Nagorno Karabakh conflict. While the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unresolved, Azerbaijan can ill
afford to undermine its improving relations with Tehran. At the same
time, if Azerbaijan makes good on its threat to take military action
against Nagorno-Karabakh, close to Iran’s northern borders, it will
undermine U.S. energy and security interests and cause the flight
of foreign investment from Azerbaijan. The volatile South Caucasus
region, plagued also by unresolved conflicts in Georgia, risks being
completely destabilized, dragging into the fight neighboring Russia,
Turkey and Iran. This perilous scenario is worth talking to Aliyev
about as much as the threats of a nuclear Iran.
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress