Zaman Online, Turkey
May 14 2006
French Tension High Ahead of Armenian Bill
By Cihan News Agency
Published: Sunday, May 14, 2006
zaman.com
Tension in France has been rising ahead of French parliamentary
resolution which criminalizes denial of so-called Armenian genocide,
as Turkish and Armenian organizations are set to hold demonstration
before parliament on May 18 when the bill will be voted.
A group of Armenians sneaked into the congress of ruling Union for
Populist Movement (UMP) in Paris on Sunday, protesting against the
rejection of similar resolution at the French National Assembly
Judiciary Affairs Commission.
The protest of the Armenian Collectif Van group at the UMP congress
was blocked by the security forces. The group members chanted slogans
against Turkey.
The draft bill to be voted in the French parliament on May 18 brings
in up to a year of imprisonment and a fine of up to 45,000 for those
who deny the “Armenian genocide”.
The fate of the Armenians under the Ottoman Empire during WW1 is a
sensitive issue in Turkey. Armenians claim that over 1 million
Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire were killed as part of an
campaign during World War I.
Turkey rejects the allegations saying that 200,000 Armenians died
during forced migrations due to cold weather and bad transportation
conditions. Turkish historians argue that same numbers of Turkish
citizens were killed by the Armenian gangs.

Zaman Online, Turkey
May 14 2006
Armenians and Greek Cypriots Lobby Against Sale of Missiles
By Cihan News Agency
Published: Sunday, May 14, 2006
zaman.com
Armenian and Greek Cypriot lobbies in Washington have launched a
joint campaign against the selling of 50 SLAM-ER smart missiles to
Turkey, NTV channel said.
Four MPs including Michael Bilirakis, Carolyn Maloney, Frank Pallone
and George Radanovich sent a letter to the US Congress, asking senior
officials to revise the selling of the missiles to Turkey. They
claimed that the selling of missiles would allow Turkey to threaten
Armenia and would break the arm balance in Cyprus.
The US Department of Defense has been seeking permission from the US
Congress to sell 50 SLAM-ER smart missiles to Turkey.
The SLAM-ER air-to-ground missiles will be attached to Turkey’s F-16
warplanes.
The statement from the US Department of Defense said in late April
that the $162 million purchase offer from Turkey had been accepted.
The Boeing Company will produce the missiles and the payment will be
meet through military sale credits to Turkey.
The sale will be finalized within upcoming day if Congress does not
raise any objections. It is expected that Congress will ratify the
sale.

Chicago Tribune
May 14 2006
Breakaway regions `two black holes’ for Georgia
By Alex Rodriguez
Tribune foreign correspondent
Published May 14, 2006
TSKHINVALI, Georgia — The separatist government in this crumbling
war-scarred city at the foot of the Caucasus Mountains has its own
flag, anthem, president and prime minister–and little else.
Most of the economy in South Ossetia, of which Tskhinvali is the
capital, vanished two years ago when Georgian troops shut down a
large open-air market that they insisted was a haven for smuggling.
Buildings half-destroyed in the region’s 1991 war with Georgia have
never been rebuilt. People scrape by on $50 a month or less.
Still, it’s a life that suffices for the tiny, unrecognized state’s
65,000 people, a life they say they will fiercely defend to the last
person.
“We can’t live very well here, but somehow we survive,” said Timur
Tskhovbrov, one of thousands of Ossetians who fought Georgian troops.
“Here in the mountains, we can fight in the woods for a long time.
They will win, of course, but we’ll cause them a lot of trouble.”
That kind of defiance poses the greatest challenge for Washington’s
strongest ally in the Caucasus region, Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili, as he steers his country Westward.
Since leading the Rose Revolution that ousted Eduard Shevardnadze in
2003, Saakashvili has replaced his country’s entire police force to
rein in corruption, stewarded strong economic growth and returned the
breakaway province of Ajaria back under Georgia’s control.
But he has yet to live up to his promise to regain authority over
Georgia’s two other breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
And as Saakashvili strives to move Georgia out of the Kremlin’s orbit
and into Europe’s, his administration realizes South Ossetia and
Abkhazia stand in the way.
“These are two black holes,” said Giorgi Khaindrava, Georgia’s
conflict settlement minister. “They’re open doors for smuggling, for
illegal militias, for drug trafficking. They’re two serious wounds,
and until we cure them, we can’t begin to talk about the health of
the whole country.”
Lasting separatist conflicts
The Soviet Union’s breakup in 1991 yielded 15 new nations, but it
also spawned several lasting separatist conflicts that have inflicted
a swath of misery and poverty from Eastern Europe’s Dniester River to
the Caucasus range on Russia’s southern border.
In Europe’s poorest nation, Moldova, pro-Moscow separatists have
clung to a sliver of land along the Dniester, calling their
unrecognized state Transdniester. In 1991, Armenians in
Nagorno-Karabakh, a fertile, horseshoe-shaped patch of land in
Azerbaijan, declared their de facto independence after ousting Azeri
forces.
For decades, ethnic Abkhazians and Ossetians endured a tense
relationship with their Georgian neighbors while Georgia was a Soviet
republic. After Georgia declared its independence in 1991, civil war
broke out between both ethnic groups and Georgian troops. Abkhazians
defended their lush homeland of orange groves and palm trees along
the Black Sea coast; Ossetians fought Georgian forces in the forested
mountainsides and valleys of South Ossetia.
Cease-fires ended major combat in South Ossetia in 1992 and in
Abkhazia in 1994. Separatist leaders established governments, setting
up foreign ministries, parliaments and defense departments. However,
those governments survive solely as a result of backing from the
Kremlin, which has peacekeeping troops in both regions.
Georgia has effectively cordoned off Abkhazia and South Ossetia from
trade with the rest of the country, but the regions border Russia,
giving them a conduit for Russian goods and arms. Russia also has
given citizenship to virtually all South Ossetians and about 80
percent of Abkhazia’s population.
Russia’s military and economic presence in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, as well as in Transdniester, has become even more important
to the Kremlin as Georgia and Moldova have shifted their allegiances
to the West. For the Kremlin, control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia
provides leverage against a Georgian government that sees its destiny
under the wing of NATO.
For many Ossetians, however, the dependence on Russia is
disconcerting.
“Now we live on Russian aid only, and that’s very bad–it’s like
we’re drug addicts,” said Alan Parastayev, head of the Civic Society
Movement, an Ossetian non-governmental organization based in
Tskhinvali. “It wasn’t like this before 2004.”
10,000 lost livelihoods
Citing concerns about smuggling, Saakashvili’s administration in 2004
shut South Ossetia’s market, where Georgians and Ossetians bought and
sold gas, cigarettes, produce and other goods amid a sea of
corrugated metal stalls and wooden shacks. The market’s closing cost
10,000 Ossetians their livelihoods, officials say.
“They were only interested in establishing an economic blockade and
shutting down the breath of the people,” said Boris Chochiyev, South
Ossetia’s deputy prime minister and its representative at peace talks
with Georgia, Russia and the Russian republic of North Ossetia.
Ossetian officials are convinced Georgia’s next step will be
military. They point to the Georgian government’s recent decision to
move its military hospital to the city of Gori, just outside the
South Ossetian border, as well as sizable increases in Georgian
defense spending. Georgia also recently opened a military base
outside Abhkazia.
Khaindrava, Georgia’s conflict settlement minister, says fears about
Georgian military action are misplaced.
“The only way out is political pressure on Russia and international
law,” he said.
Ossetians believe their only recourse is to brace for war. Khaindrava
says Russia has supplied Ossetian forces with tanks, armored vehicles
and anti-aircraft artillery. The region’s prime minister, Yuri
Morozov, would not discuss his military’s arms or troop strength, but
he said his government is convinced that Ossetians living in Russia
and Abkhaz forces would come to the region’s aid if fighting broke
out.
In Tskhinvali, Ossetians say another round of conflict in a war that
has shadowed them for 15 years is the last thing they want–and
foremost on their minds right now.
“Women, old men and even our children will protect our homeland,”
said Jana Meshchereykova, an Ossetian doctor. Her 24-year-old son
died when Georgian gunmen ambushed a busload of Ossetians in 1992.
“Each person has to die on the land where he was born. We don’t want
war, but we will protect ourselves.”

Duluth News Tribune, MN
May 14 2006
Armenian keeps IBF title
ZWICKAU, Germany – Armenia’s Arthur Abraham retained the IBF
middleweight title Saturday in a rousing 12-round brawl with Kofi
Jantuah.
On the same card, Germany’s Markus Beyer retained the WBC super
middleweight title against Australian Sakio Bika when a head butt
stopped the fight.
The fight was ruled a technical draw after Bika’s fourth round head
butt opened a cut under the German’s right eye and it swelled shut.
About 4,000 spectators gave Abraham, 21-0 with 17 knockouts, a
standing ovation after the action-filled fight. He was awarded a
115-112, 116-111, 117-109 decision against Jantuah, who lives in Las
Vegas.
Jantuah (30-3, 19 knockouts) was staggered numerous times from the
fifth round on and looked as if he was going down in the 11th when
Abraham buckled his knees with a left, but never stopped pressing the
fight.
Abraham kept trying to knock him out, even in the 12th, when he had a
big lead to protect.
Bika rattled Beyer with a short left uppercut, then chased him around
the ring. The German tagged him with some hard lefts beforehand and
recovered to put him into the ropes just before the bell.
Beyer entered the fight 34-2 with 13 knockouts, while Bika was 20-1
with 13 knockouts.
– In Sheffield, England, Clinton Woods stopped Jason DeLisle in the
sixth round to retain his IBF light-heavyweight title in his second
defense.

Aljazeera.net, Qatar
May 14 2006
Violence robs Iraq of Christian heritage
By Firas al-Atraqchi
Sunday 14 May 2006, 8:32 Makka Time, 5:32 GMT

Christian children sing carols in a church in Baghdad last year

The flight of religious minorities escaping violence in post-war Iraq
is threatening to rob the country of its once diverse Christian
heritage.
In the early 1980s, Iraq’s Christian population numbered 1.4 million
but economic strife brought on by the war with Iran and UN sanctions
after the 1991 Gulf War pushed some in the ancient community to
emigrate.
Nevertheless, the Christian community continued to enjoy religious
freedoms in the majority Muslim country until the US-led invasion of
2003, says Adli Juwaidah, a former director of cultural relations in
Iraq’s ministry of higher education.
“The relationship with the [former Baathist] ruling regime was good
and it trusted them, but it is important that significantly this was
because the Christians did not interfere in politics and did not have
political ambition,” he told Aljazeera.net.
But after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, the Christian community
found itself under attack and tens of thousands have since fled the
country in fear of religious persecution.
“The days of officially preached religious tolerance during Saddam’s
rule are gone and freedom to worship now gives way to fear about an
impending Islamisation of Iraq,” a United Nations High Commissioner
on Refugees (UNHCR) study of Iraqi Christians said in 2004.
On August 2, 2004, more than a dozen Christian worshippers were
killed when five Armenian, Assyrian and Chaldean churches came under
co-ordinated attacks in the capital Baghdad and the northern city of
Mosul.
Nine other churches were attacked before the end of the year.
Shop owners threatened
In addition to church bombings, Christian shop owners selling alcohol
have been targeted by groups trying to enforce Islamic laws.
Stores selling music tapes and CDs, mostly owned by Christian
merchants, have also been firebombed and their owners told to stop
“corrupting Islamic society”.
In 2004, leaflets were left at the homes of Christian families
warning the “men of the households” to adhere to Islamic law and
ensure that women were dressed “conservatively”, which often refers
to Islamic attire.

Churches in Baghdad and Mosul
have come under bomb attacks

Young Christian women have reported harassment and intimidation in
the streets to don veils or scarves to cover their hair.
Fayrouz Hancock, an Iraq-Australian computer programmer now living in
the US, says Iraqi Christians are fleeing “because of the
difficulties of practising their faith and leading normal social
lives in a country that has turned conservative due to the threats
from extremists”.
She also blames the breakdown in security in the country.
In early May, the United States Commission on International Religious
Freedom (USCIRF) warned that religiously motivated attacks signalled
“an exodus that may mean the end of the presence in Iraq of ancient
Christian and other communities that have lived on those same lands
for 2,000 years”.
Michael La Civita, assistant secretary for communications for the
Pontifical Mission, a Vatican development agency working in the
Middle East, says there is no “outright” persecution of the Christian
community.
Social discrimination
However, “there is social discrimination of Iraqi Christians. And
since the collapse of central authority (beginning with the second
US-led invasion), Iraqi Christians have been targeted by extremists”,
La Civita told Aljazeera.net.
“As a result, large numbers of Iraqi Christians are leaving Iraq,
settling in Jordan, temporarily. Because Middle Eastern Christians
are typically middle class, well educated, speak a number of European
languages and have family in the diaspora, they find refuge in the
West.”

Practising their faith has become
difficult under extremist threats

Exact figures of how many Christians have left since the US invasion
are hard to come by. The Iraqi government has not issued any figures
on the community and many who have left do not register with any
refugee or aid organisations.
“Western sources seem uninterested in writing about their number or
situation,” says William Warda, an Assyrian researcher and webmaster
of Christians of Iraq, a website that monitors news and information
on the community.
“Christians of the Middle East have practised a pacifist form of
Christianity and have always strived to live in peace with their
neighbours regardless of their religion,” he said, adding that the
Iraqi Christians are afraid to complain fearing retaliation.
Terrified community
Soon after the August 2004 church bombings, reports from the
Iraq-Syria border indicated 40,000 Iraqi Christians had fled to
Damascus and Aleppo, with thousands more crossing into Turkey.
La Civita says figures from the Holy See indicate less than 300,000
Catholics (Chaldean, Syriac and Armenian Catholics) remain in Iraq.
“The days of officially preached religious tolerance during Saddam’s
rule are gone and freedom to worship now gives way to fear about an
impending Islamisation of Iraq”
UNHCR report

NA, a 35-year-old Christian woman in Basra, who agreed to be
identified by her initials only, is alarmed by the new Iraq and the
militias which roam the streets of her once beautiful city.
A few weeks ago, as she walked to her church a few blocks from her
home, she and a female friend and their children were accosted by two
men on a motorbike who shouted anti-Christian slurs.
“The police were standing there without trying to prevent them from
harassing us, I was terrified, not only for myself but for the whole
group and especially the little ones,” she said.
The men on the motorbike left once the entourage entered the
sanctuary of the church.
But Basra area churches are also declining in number.
Death threats
In previous weeks, two churches closed when their reverends fled for
Jordan after receiving death threats.
“The number of Christian families leaving is growing,” NA says.
“I don’t know the exact number, but from around me each month more
than 10 families are fleeing, and that’s just the families I can see
at the Catholic Church.”
While she says she refuses to don the headscarf, she will leave the
country at the first chance she gets.
“I fear for my life because they are killing people without any
reason, and making others leave their jobs just because they are
Sunni or Shia and the Christians in here are like a very weak old
person … we don’t know what to do or where to go,” she told
Aljazeera.net.
Sectarian havens
With Baghdad and other cities unofficially becoming demarcated into
sectarian neighbourhoods, Christian families have found themselves
particularly vulnerable.
While the cities of Mosul and Falluja, for example, are considered
Sunni safe havens and Karbala and Najaf are Shia safe havens, there
are no regions where Christians are a majority and therefore could
escape to.

With no militias to protect them,
Christians are feeling vulnerable

The result has been that many have left the country entirely.
Furthermore, Christians do not have the support of militias which
many Sunnis and Shia are afforded because of tribal affiliations.
“At least the Kurds, Shia and the Sunnis [have] well equipped
militias to protect them from wholesale attacks against them, and
they have allies who will come to their help if there is a civil
war,” Warda said.
Friar Yousif Thomas, a Chaldean Catholic in Baghdad, says all-out
sectarian conflict means Christians will be caught in the middle.
“If a civil war is declared between Shia and Sunni, it is
comprehensible that Christians cannot defend themselves. The choice
of going out is very bitter for the majority of them, but do they
have any other choice?” he says.
Grim future
Despite the difficulties in practising their faith and threats, an
Iraq bereft of Christians is difficult for the community to grasp.
Christians pre-date Islam by some 700 years and have lived in the
area known as Mesopotamia (modern day Iraq) since St Thomas the
Apostle preached in 30 CE and founded the East Syriac Church.
“I can’t imagine an Iraq without Iraqi Christians, says Hancock.
“Iraqi Christians contributed to Iraq with their skills and loyalty
to the country. It is sad to watch what happened to them for the last
three years.”

Itar-Tass, Russia
May 14 2006
Bad weather causes delay in A-320 jet’s black boxes lifting

SOCHI, May 14 (Itar-Tass) – Bad weather on the Black Sea has forced
officials steering a recovery of flight recorders of the Armenian
Airlines A-320 jet from the seabed to revise the operation schedule.
The jet crashed in the small hours of May 3 while on a maneuver for
landing at Adler airport, located in the coastal area.
A traffic controller at the seaport of the beach city of Sochi told
Itar-Tass the special sea craft Navigator had to suspend a search in
the area of jet crash six kilometers away from the coast and to
return to the port.
The operation was suspended at 17:00 hours Moscow time, but earlier
reports indicated the Navigator’s crew had managed to obtain the
first television image of the flight recorders lying at the depth of
496 meters.
The images were produced with the aid of a top-notch research complex
Kalmar.
At the time of reporting, the area had northwest wind 15 meters per
second to 17 meters per second strong and a moderate swell of the sea
(3 to 4 points on the Douglas scale).
The Kalmar equipment was provided by the department for salvage and
emergency operations based in the port city of Novorossisk.
The designer of the complex, the Russian corporation Tetis-Pro, made
the Kalmar for the Russian Navy. When the A-320 crashed, the complex,
which includes a sonic depth-tester having the functions of a
side-looking sonar, was still in the phase of testing.
The Kalmar is capable of tracking down objects at the depths of down
to 600 meters.
Other ships engaged in the recovery operation also returned to Sochi
port.

Anatolian Times, Turkey
May 14 2006
Turkish Parliamentary Delegation Meets French National Assembly
Speaker
PARIS – A Turkish parliamentary delegation met on Wednesday French
National Assembly Speaker Jean-Louis Debre.
Turkish Parliamentary delegation, comprising Mehmet Dulger and Musa
Sivacioglu from Justice & Development Party (AKP); and Onur Oymen and
Gulsun Bilgehan Toker from the main opposition Republican People`s
Party (CHP), is currently in Paris to lobby for rejection or
withdrawal of the bill which would make “the denial“ of the
so-called Armenian genocide a crime.
Following their meeting with Debre, the Turkish delegation met French
parliament foreign affairs commission chairman Edouard Balladur.
Speaking to A.A correspondent following the meetings, CHP MP Onur
Oymen said, “we have explained the harsh reaction of the Turkish
people. We have attracted the attention to the calls in Turkey to
boycott French goods. We had the opportunity to convey them that
relations would be harmed in case the bill becomes a law.“
Meetings of the Turkish delegation will continue on Thursday.
Turkish parliamentarians will make references to previous statements
of the French executives and historians that the “parliaments can
not write history and the history should be left to historians“ and
want French parliamentarians to be consistent with their previous
statements.
Proposal of the Socialist Party will be discussed on May 18th. The
bill should be approved in the senate in order to become a law.

Anatolian Times, Turkey
May 14 2006
Erdogan On So-called Armenian Genocide Allegations
ANKARA – “I believe that the French parliament will not bring
forward so-called Armenian genocide (allegations) as a virus between
the two countries (Turkey and France) which have significant
relations,“ said Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Before flying to Austria to participate in the EU-Latin America
Summit, Erdogan underlined deep-rooted bilateral relations, and
expressed belief that common sense will prevail at the French
parliament.
“Because, Turkish-French relations are not just ordinary
relations,“ he stressed.
Erdogan stated that French companies are ranked the first among
foreign companies investing in Turkey.
“We will have meetings in Vienna,“ said Erdogan when answering a
question if he has talked to French authorities regarding the
resolution on so-called Armenian genocide allegations.
“As you know, I had a meeting with executives of French companies
working in Turkey yesterday. They think that this is a very unjust
move against Turkey. They said that it is impossible for them to
accept such a thing. They told me that the chairmen of their
companies are holding talks with necessary French authorities, and
assured me that they will convey our views to them and demand that
this injustice will be overcome,“ he noted.
-EU-LATIN AMERICA SUMMIT-
Briefing reporters on the EU-Latin America summit and the bilateral
meetings he will have on the margin of this summit, Erdogan said that
he is invited as a special guest to the summit.
According to Erdogan, executives of 60 countries, including those of
33 Latin American and Caribbean countries, will participate in the
summit in which democracy, human rights and international peace will
be debated.
Erdogan indicated that he will meet Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang
Schuessel and exchange views on bilateral relations as well as
international topics.
“We will have the opportunity to debate our EU membership bid,
especially the screening process and negotiations,“ he stressed.
-D-8 SUMMIT-
Erdogan said that he will proceed to Indonesia after his visit to
Austria to attend D-8 summit.
Noting that Indonesian President will chair the meeting to be held on
May 13th, Erdogan said that Iranian and Nigerian presidents,
Malaysian and Pakistani prime ministers, and Egyptian foreign
minister will participate in the summit.
Erdogan drew attention that the D-8 initiative was launched as “a
development cooperation mechanism“ under leadership of Turkey, and
stated that D-8 aims to enhance cooperation among countries which
have rich natural resources and significant man power.
According to Erdogan, a Bali Declaration, D-8 Preferential Trade
Agreement, and an administrative cooperation agreement in area of
customs will be signed at the end of the summit.

Anatolian Times, Turkey
May 14 2006
Liberation Publishes Turkish Intellectuals’ Statement: We Are
Extremely Concerned About The Draft Law
PARIS – Turkish intellectuals expressed concerns about the draft law
which was submitted to the French parliament by the Socialist Party
with the aim of punishing those who deny so-called Armenian genocide.
In a statement published by the French Liberation newspaper,
intellectuals said, “those who brought the draft onto agenda of the
French parliament have to take into consideration existence of
persons and institutions who are trying to prevent and punish
discussions on the events of 1915. Such a draft law will obstruct
free discussions both in France and Turkey. It will also disrupt the
process of questioning historical and common memory.“
The statement signed by Baskin Oran, Elif Safak, Etyen Mahcupyan,
Halil Berktay, Hrant Dink, Murat Belge, Muge Gocek and Ragip Zarakolu
said, “we, as citizens of the Republic of Turkey, feel the burden of
the inhuman calamity which Ottoman Armenians were subject to. We
share their pain. No one can deny the brutality of 1915. All efforts
to find a cause for those events will be in vain.“
“As the conference in Istanbul on September 23rd-24th, 2005, and
similar other initiatives revealed, democratization process has been
going on in Turkey. This process can enlighten the 90-year darkness.
We will maintain our struggle with calmness and determination to this
end,“ they said.
“However, we are extremely concerned about the draft law which will
be debated by the French parliament in the coming days. Such a draft
law will disrupt the process of questioning historical and common
memory. It will also obstruct free discussions both in France and
Turkey,“ they said.
Turkish intellectuals stressed, “we need to overcome countercharges
of Turks and Armenians in a vicious circle, and turn them into a
humanitarian dialogue and common history by conveying our memories to
each other. We can reach this target only through freedom of
expression and debate, and exchange of information. Like fight
against crimes against humanity, freedom of expression is also an
universal principle. Defending existence of one of these two elements
cannot eliminate existence of the other.“
“Today, unfortunately, both parties are far away from conveying
their way of perception to the other. In recent years, Armenian
nationalists have been supporting laws restricting freedom of
expression in response to the Turkish state`s policy of denial.
However, their efforts can trigger harder disagreements. Therefore,
we call on Armenians not to make a mistake which will be quite
difficult to correct in future,“ they added.

Regnum, Russia
May 14 2006
The May artillery preparation by the US and Russia before July G8
Summit in St. Petersburg
When during the `Common Vision of Common Neighborhood’ conference in
Vilnius on May 4 US Vice President Richard Cheney took up the burden
to openly criticize Russia for its home and foreign policies and,
later, US President George Bush said himself – thereby proving that
in Vilnius Cheney was speaking `not on his own behalf’ – that
Washington was not satisfied with `the level of democracy’ in Russia,
many understood that they in the White House were beginning some kind
of battle against Moscow. Their goal might be to get some kind of
carte blanche before the July G8 Summit in St. Petersburg to be able
to pressure the Kremlin in the `Iranian dossier’ issue. As you may
know, it was exactly in early May that Russia and China had once
again rejected the UN SC’s resolution on Iran, drafted by the UK and
some western countries.
However, the US and its allies might as well want to turn the St.
Petersburg G8 into some kind of `public flogging’ for Russia – for
Cheney’s indictment contains quite surprising charges: like, Moscow
is allegedly `toying’ with the territorial integrity of some
neighboring states. Any unbiased observer could see that Cheney was,
first of all, meaning Russia’s official stance on the ethnic
conflicts in the CIS, and so, through its vice president in nowhere
but the Baltic states, the US has given a start to a process that
will inevitably dismantle the CIS and – as the Americans believe –
will tear away and then reshape the peacemaking formats in the CIS
conflict zones. They believe that this all will allow them to push
Russia out of the peace-making and -keeping operations – for example
in the selfsame Abkhazia or South Ossetia. In this light, one can
agree with the `forebodings’ of some Azeri officials that during the
G8 Summit the US may raise the problem of Karabakh too.
Georgia and Ukraine have already started the CIS dismantling. We
already know what their presidents Mikhail Saakashvili and Viktor
Yushchenko are going to offer instead, say, to Armenia or Azerbaijan
– `Commonwealth of Democratic Choice’ – an alternative to the failed
GUUAM-GUAM – a framework that the extra-regional forces will now use
to `push a-la-west democracy’ from `the Adriatic to the Caspian seas’
(as they said in Vilnius). However, this is a topic for a separate
discussion.
Everybody understood that they in the Kremlin would not be able to
pretend they did not see the openly anti-Russian meaning of what
Cheney and Bush said. That’s why the quick response of Russian FM
Sergey Lavrov on May 6 made clear to the experts that in his annual
address to the Russian parliament Russian President Vladimir Putin
would not fail to outline his basic policy during his the G8 talks.
Obviously, Russia began preparing for `a battle’ with the US
beforehand. One proof is the enhanced Russian-German diplomatic,
political and business activities in January-February 2006.
Particularly, Lavrov said: `Democracy is necessary not only inside
the state but also on the international arena.’ About Cheney’s speech
Lavrov said: `I thought that a person holding such an office is
objectively informed of everything but his advisors or assistants
must have let him down. For example, Cheney says: `the opponents of
reforms in Russia are seeking to reverse the gains of the last
decade.’ I think one should not explain to the Russian people what
gains he is talking about – the country was on the verge of breakup.’
Lavrov said that, in fact, the Russian authorities are seeking to
preserve Russia’s unity; in the last 40 years Russia has broken no
single oil or gas export contract; as regards the statement that
Russia undermines the territorial integrity of its neighbors – in
early 90 it was exactly Russian peacekeepers who gave their lives to
stop bloodshed in Moldova and Georgia. `Not to remember this is
blasphemy,’ Lavrov noted. To clear the air Lavrov said: `One thing I
agree with is Mr. Cheney’s desire to see the world as a community of
sovereign democracies. Russia wants to be and is becoming sovereign,
strong and stable democracy and hopes that they in the world will
take it as equal partner whose presence in global problem solving is
indispensable. I think that such statements will not undermine the
efforts we are making with the US, with Europe, with other leading
counties to build a fair world with no conflicts and with countries
developing stably and democratically.’
That’s why when on May 10 Putin appeared with his annual address to
Russia’s Federal Assembly, special attention was given to the
paragraphs about Russia’s foreign policy and security for the time
being. The South Caucasus and some other CIS countries were mostly
eager to know what Putin thinks about the changes in Russia’s
migration policy – just count how many citizens of our country are
presently earning their living in Russia and sending home untaxed
money transfers in freely convertible currency in order to feed their
poor families. Still, we are inclined to first of all analyze the
foreign policy and defense parts of Putin’s address.
It should be noted that the text of this document has made it clear
that Russia, at least, for today is inclined to regard the West’s
policy in the CIS as an ordinary rivalry. That’s exactly what Putin
wants to say: `now that the world is being actively rebuilt we are
facing many new problems. These challenges are less predictable and
nobody can say how dangerous they might be. The conflict space is
actively enlarging and, which is even more dangerous, is beginning to
cover our vital interests.’ They in the CIS and the West should
understand the last phrase as an imperative signal to all
extra-regional forces that Moscow will not give in `the zone of its
vital interests’ `without fight.’ It is symptomatic that today the
Russian President has `as if imperceptibly’ begun to use the
vocabulary the US administration used in early 90 when `opening up’
the whole post-Soviet space and calling it “newly independent states
and `zone of American vital interests.’
Let’s put aside Putin’s clear remarks that despite their lagging
financing, Russia’s defense complex and armed forces can give worthy
rebuff to any persons or countries who will try to `scare’ Moscow.
Obviously, Russia’s key strategy before the St. Petersburg G8 is that
it links nonproliferation of mass destruction weapon (which first of
all refers to nuclear weapon – and this is a subtle hint at the
`Iranian nuclear dossier’) with the new turn of arms race, including
the US’ deepening activities to create a national anti-missile
system. Let’s give a couple of quotations: `…today it’s early to
speak about the end of the arms race… the race is just unfolding and
it is going up to a new technological level to produce a threatening
arsenal of destabilizing arms (he obviously means non-conventional
arms).
Experts are already discussing the plans of use of intercontinental
ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads. But nuclear powers may
inadequately react to the launch of such a missile – they may
counter-act in a large-scale nuclear strike. Not everybody in the
world has given up its stereotypes and prejudice…’ In our view, by
saying this Putin just reminded the West that Russia’s national
security concept has a point that allows Russia to deal response or
even preventive nuclear strikes in case of a war or a threat of war.
Well, this is all but `a declaration of war’ against the West. Let’s
remind once again – `the war was declared’ against Russia at the
Vilnius conference by Mr. Cheney, who made an ultimatum: either you
break up yourself and we call it `the deepening of the western
standard democracy’ or…
Even the Western media called Cheney’s speech `a new Fulton speech,’
`cold war ghost,’ etc, while Putin’s address is just a reminder that
the challenge can be accepted. In other words, this is an ordinary
strategic game until the G8 presidents dot their `i’s’ by themselves.
The US CIS `democratization’ policy also got it from Putin. True,
again indirectly: “Today the percentage of our defense expenses in
GDP are comparable or a bit smaller than in big nuclear powers like
France or the UK… but only absolute figures matter, in absolute
figures they are just half of what those countries have and are in no
way comparable to the expenses of the US. Their absolute military
budget is 25 times as big as that of Russia. That’s what they in the
military call `their home, their fortress. They did it well. Well
done! But this does not mean that we must not build our own strong
home. Because we see what is going on in the world. We do see. As
they say `comrade wolf knows whom to eat.’ He is eating and is not
listening to anybody and seems not to be going to. What becomes of
their pathos about the necessity to fight for human rights and
democracy when it comes to the necessity to push their own interests?
It turns out that here everything is possible with no restrictions.’
In our view, this is what the Kremlin actually thinks about `the
fruits’ of the `color revolutions’ in the CIS, designed by US
political technologists.
And the last point of the defensive-preventive part of Putin’s
address. He said that Russia has means that can overcome air defense
systems and will allow Moscow to fulfill its key task – to guarantee
stable peace in the world and to preserve the strategic balance of
forces. Putin also made clear that the Russian army will shortly have
maneuverable warheads – units that make missile flight path
unpredictable for potential enemy.
Only after that did Putin announce the cardinal tasks of Russia’s
foreign policy – which will obviously be valid for not only this year
but the whole period till the next presidential election of 2008.
Here Putin said that the CIS is still a priority for Russia’s FM.
True, the CIS as such has already fulfilled its historical mission
and should be reformed. This might be a hint that the Kremlin’s
political technologists are already working to transform the CIS into
one or even several new organizations, which would reintegrate the
actions and efforts of all the present CIS states. We have already
heard their names and not once – CSTO, Russia-Belarus Union, EurAsEC,
CES (common economic space).
The other key task of Moscow’s foreign policy is to harmonize
relations with the EU, Russia’s biggest partner. There is nothing new
here – the Russian President still trusts the Russian-EU bilateral
agreement for creating `four common spaces.’ On two of the four the
sides have actually been actively working in the last months. We can
certainly add to this `the fifth common space’ between Russia and the
EU – the quickly ongoing Russian-German project of Northern gas
pipeline.
As regards the US, it seems that Russia has decided to make it known
beforehand that, once its major partner in the West (especially in
politics and fight with terrorism), Washington, is no longer a
priority in Russia’s foreign policy. The US has got into the class of
Russia’s `special partners’ along with China, India, some
Asia-Pacific, Latin American and African countries. And if many
experts believed that by Cheney’s Vilnius speech President Bush made
clear to Russia that in St. Petersburg they would have an unpleasant
talks, by his speech Putin made even more clear to Bush that today
they have nothing special to talk about – let’s say once again: `the
wolf is eating and is not listening to anybody and seems not to be
going to…’
And the last task of Moscow’s foreign policy is to promote the UN
reforms so that it can further be `the carcass of the modern world
order’ – `a regulator allowing to jointly develop a new up-to-date
code of behavior in the world.’ But, at the same time, the UN should
become as efficient as possible. We can try to go deep into this
problem, but it is too is a topic for separate discussion…
It’s not a secret that the reason for this `attack’ on Russia and
those CIS countries who reject the `anti-Russian’ democracy is that
some of the G-8 and, primarily, the US are very much eager to get new
levers of control over Moscow – at least, some new ways of political
and other pressure on it. This might also be due to Russia’s plans to
repay its debts to the `Paris Club’ ahead of time or to the US’ plans
to stop Russia’s impartiality in the `Iranian problem?’ – this may
even be some complex task Russia’s international enemies are trying
to solve. One thing is clear: the West (the US) fears lest it might
lose not only the strings that help it to manipulate Russia but also
any `control’ over the actions of Russian leaders – present or
future. And this is quite possible. That’s probably why after Putin’s
address Russia’s Federal Assembly was told that starting from July 1,
2006 Russia will be ready to convert its ruble…
Sergey Shakaryants – expert of the Caucasus Analytical Center