OSCE ENVOY HAILS “REMARKABLY BALANCED” WORK IN ARMENIA
Mediamax news agency, Yerevan
18 May 06
The OSCE secretary-general has said that his organization’s work in
Armenia is “remarkably balanced”. In what was described as an exclusive
interview to Mediamax, Marc Perrin de Brichambaut also urged Armenia
to amend the electoral law ahead of the forthcoming elections. The
following is the text of report in English by Armenian news agency
Mediamax headlined “I know that desecration of an Armenian cemetery
in Nakhichevan raised very strong feelings in Armenia”; Subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
An exclusive interview given by the OSCE secretary-general, Ambassador
Marc Perrin de Brichambaut, to Armenia’s Mediamax news agency.
[Journalist] Armenia was among those CIS countries which criticized
the OSCE in a statement made in summer 2004 and today it seems the OSCE
reform has become a legitimate item on the agenda of the organization.
[Ambassador] Like any organization, the OSCE is in a constant
process of adapting to new realities. What you are referring to is
the requirement of certain countries within the OSCE to make more
substantial changes in order to reflect their own perception that there
are occasionally double standards within the OSCE. Since decisions are
taken in the OSCE on the basis of consensus, any decision requires a
large amount of discussion in order for compromise to be reached. We
are right now going to that process. We hope this process will be a
very successful one.
But I do not think any final package will be reached before the next
ministerial meeting to be held in Brussels this December. In between,
we are in active contacts with all countries, including Armenia,
which has been following this issue closely, and I think the Armenian
authorities understand that the OSCE secretariat is doing its best
to address the existing concerns under the prevailing conditions.
[Journalist] In July 2004, CIS member states declared that “there
is a clear misbalance between the three dimensions of security –
military and political, economic and environmental and human. There
is a clear shift of priorities towards humanitarian problems, which
noticeably reduces the OSCE’s ability to oppose new challenges and
threats”. Do you agree that such misbalance indeed exists?
OSCE work in Armenia ” remarkably balanced”
[Ambassador] Here in Armenia the work done by the OSCE is remarkably
balanced. In a broader way, it is true that the OSCE occasionally is
perceived more through its human dimension, but it is also a fact that
a lot of resources of the OSCE come from the voluntary contributions
of participating states and that many of them place a large emphasis
on the human dimension, providing resources for that.
I would greatly encourage all those participating states who want more
spending on other dimensions to look at how they might contribute to
all the dimensions.
Prague forum
[Journalist] It seems that the economic and environmental dimension
of the OSCE is coming to the forefront of discussions initiated 30
years ago in Helsinki. What benefits can Armenia expect from the OSCE?
[Ambassador] We are going to have in Prague an Economic Forum on 21
May, which has been solely prepared by meetings in Dushanbe and Baku.
We will be putting attention on issues which are directly relevant
to the economic prosperity of a country like Armenia. This is a clear
indication that the economic dimension is being taken very seriously,
with particular focus on issues which are relevant to the countries
in the Caucasus.
“Good” relations with OSCE
[Journalist] How is the cooperation between Armenia and the OSCE Office
for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) developing? Do
you see any room for improvement?
[Ambassador] I think the relations between the OSCE and Armenia are
good and that the Office for Democracy and Human Rights (ODHR) is
part of that relationship. We expect that ODHR will be invited to send
long-term and short-term election monitors to the upcoming elections in
Armenian in 2007 and 2008. We are making comments on the amendments to
the electoral law and we hope that this will be taken into account. But
what is most important would be for any decisions taken by parliament
to be fully implemented in the forthcoming elections.
“Strong” feelings over cemetery claims
[Journalist] In the context of the OSCE human dimension the issues
of tolerance and non-discrimination are at the forefront of the
discussions. Don’t you think that in this respect much more attention
should be paid to the situation in our region?
[Ambassador] I think you are touching on a very important point. It
would be a great complicating factor if existing political tensions
would be given a cultural dimension. I am well aware of the fact that
the desecration of an Armenian cemetery in Naxcivan has raised very
strong feelings in Armenia. The Armenian Catholicos expressed his deep
sadness and sorrow about this. We are going to work very hard for the
solution of the conflict itself in order to eliminate the root causes
of this possible cultural tension. We are all concerned about this.

AZERBAIJANI GOVERNMENT TO FIGHT ILLEGAL FOREIGN BROADCASTS
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
May 18 2006
The illegal interference of foreign television and radio channels,
in particular, those of Armenia and Iran, to the air broadcasts in
Azerbaijan will be prevented soon.
The Ministry of Communications and Information Technologies has placed
an order with the Information Technologies Institute to develop a
system at fighting illegal broadcasts, Minister Ali Abbasov told
journalists Wednesday.
The new system being prepared jointly with the Ministry experts will
allow to fully solve the problem, he said.
“We will put the new system into operation soon, which will make it
possible to oversee broadcasts in any given district,” Abbasov said.

AZERBAIJAN TO RECEIVE SOUTHERN PART OF IRAN, AND ARMENIA – NAGORNO KARABAKH?
Regnum, Russia
May 18 2006
Launch of military actions against Iran would necessarily destabilize
the situation in the South Caucasian region, Head of International
Relations Problems Department at the Political and Military Analysis
Institute Sergey Markedonov has told to a REGNUM correspondent.
At the same time, he treated skeptically the prospect of military
actions in Iran. “Launch of a military operation in the Islamic
republic would force the US to transform all its military system. The
war in Iraq has shown that the US Army formed on the basis of contracts
cannot endure two wars,” noted Sergey Markedonov. “Iran is a large
country with 70 million population. Taking into account this as well,
the war is not profitable for Americans, as the US will have to switch
to draft and mobilization, and American society is not ready for it,”
believes the analyst.
According to him, in case of a military operation against Iran, Georgia
would support this campaign, as it has already chosen a pro-American
position. “Positions of both Azerbaijan and Armenia on this issue are
very complicated. Ilham Aliyev’s behavior in Washington has shown
Azerbaijan’s concern, because, if it supports the USA, Iran would
strike Azerbaijan in response,” the expert noted adding that in theory
a variant of exchange is possible. “If the operation is a success,
Azerbaijan gets southern part of Iran, and Armenia receives Karabakh,
but it is only theoretical,” concluded Sergey Markedonov.

RUSSIA BEGINS MOVING MILITARY EQUIPMENT FROM GEORGIA TO BASE IN ARMENIA
People’s Daily Online, China
May 18 2006
Russia on Thursday started moving military equipment from a base in
Georgia to its Gyumri base in Armenia, said military officials.
Ten trucks from the Akhalkalaki base, along with an armored personnel
carrier and a Georgian military police escort, had reached the Armenian
border, said Col. Vladimir Kuparadze, deputy commander of the Russian
troops in the southern Caucasus.
Russia started the withdrawal earlier this week under an agreement
with the Georgian side last year.
According to the agreement, all heavy weapons and vehicles at the
Georgian base of Akhalkalaki will be pull out by Oct. 15, while
personnel and base property must leave by the end of 2007.
Meanwhile, withdrawal process at the other Russian base in Georgia’s
Black Sea port of Batumi is also to be finished by the end of 2008.

AMERICA’S NEW ALLY?
By Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr.
FrontPage magazine.com, CA
May 18 2006
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s three-day visit to Washington in
late April to discuss economic and regional security issues marked an
important step forward in U.S.-Azerbaijan bilateral relations. “My
trip to Washington covered all aspects of our relationship,” the
44-year old Aliyev said. Seeking to solidify his country’s ties to
the region, an enthusiastic U.S. President George W. Bush noted,
“Azerbaijan is a modern Muslim country that is able to provide for
its citizens and understands that democracy is the wave of the future.”
President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Haidar as head of
state after his death in 2003, has quickly become a critical U.S.
ally, as other nations in the region such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
have slowly distanced themselves from Washington. Located between
Russia and Iran with a population of 7.8 million people, Azerbaijan
has been an important strategic partner in the war on terror, sending
troops to both Afghanistan and Iraq. The country has also allowed
the use of its territory by the U.S. military, cooperating with
the Pentagon to modernize a former Soviet-era airfield and granting
permission for U.S. military over flights.
Plans were recently announced for the U.S. to modernize one radar
station near the Iranian border at Lerik and another near the border
with Georgia at Agstafa. Joint work has also commenced on two radar
stations on the Russia-Azerbaijani border and Iran-Azerbaijani border
to monitor Caspian Sea traffic.
Although bilateral cooperation has accelerated recently,
U.S.-Azerbaijan relations are not entirely rosy. Promised political
reforms have progressed slowly in Baku, the country’s capital, with
the U.S. openly criticizing the presidential elections in 2003 and
parliamentary polls last year as “seriously flawed.” President Aliyev’s
election was marred by allegations of corruption and brutal crackdowns
on his political opposition, drawing some international observers to
compare the leader to Belarus strongman President Alexander Lukashenko.
A pending criminal case in New York federal court against an
Azerbaijani oil company in which Aliyev served as vice president
has also raised questions regarding the president’s past. Moreover,
president Aliyev’s recent bellicose statements concerning his country’s
deadly conflict with neighbor Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh
territory that left 30,000 civilians dead, has raised red flags
in Washington.
Domestic problems aside, the energy resources of Azerbaijan have
propelled bilateral relations forward. Washington remains determined to
reduce its energy reliance on less-friendly governments in the Middle
East, Africa and South America. The 1,000 mile long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline, which bypasses both Russia and Iran from the Caspian
Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, is testimony to the rising importance
of the country’s energy sector and its ability to play an integral
role in U.S. energy security.
According to Azerbaijani government sources, the country’s oil reserves
range from 7 to 13 billion barrels. Daily oil exports reached 319,000
barrels per day (bpd) in 2004 and are expected to reach 1.1 million
bpd by 2008. Natural gas reserves are also substantial, estimated at
30 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Flush with cash, foreign investors are
flocking to the country hoping to secure lucrative exploration and
development contracts, with investment increasing an astounding 30
percent, or US$4.4 billion, in 2004 alone.
Beyond democratization and energy, the complex issue of Iran drives
the current U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship. As a Shia Muslim nation,
Azerbaijan shares close ethnic and religious ties with its southern
neighbor. As a result, Baku strongly opposes the use of force against
Iran in the current nuclear crisis, “Our position has not changed —
the problems should be resolved by diplomatic means,” president Aliyev
said during his visit to Washington.
Baku’s developing relationship with Tehran is an ongoing concern
for Washington. During 2005, president Aliyev and Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met three times, providing a glimpse of how close
the two countries have become. “Relations between the two friendly and
fraternal countries are rapidly developing,” Aliyev noted in a December
meeting with Ahmadinejad in Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani enclave.
Earlier this month, the two leaders met in Baku, with president
Ahmadinejad expressing both his desire to increase energy cooperation
with Azerbaijan and his growing dissatisfaction with U.S. efforts aimed
at halting Iran’s nuclear program. To ensure Azerbaijani neutrality
and counter U.S. influence, Iran reportedly offered to serve as an
export conduit for Azerbaijani oil and gas.
Tehran’s early efforts seem to be paying off. Public opinion polls
in Azerbaijan show a growing tide of anti-Americanism. “All recent
surveys conducted in Azerbaijan show the rise of anti-American moods
in Azerbaijan society,” noted Arif Yunusov, head of the Conflict
Prevention Department at the Baku-based Institute for Peace and
Democracy.
Azerbaijan’s increased contact with Iran could place the country in a
difficult position, as the U.N. Security Council considers punitive
measures such as economic sanctions or even military action. In
essence, Baku’s position of non-interference on the Iran nuclear
issue gives Washington little room for geopolitical maneuvering. The
country’s strategic importance during any military conflict with Iran
should not be underestimated. Azerbaijan shares a 370 mile border
with Iran, and successfully sealing it would be an important first
step to stem the transport of necessary supplies and weapons to Iran.
“One concern is to keep Azerbaijan on board regardless of the
administration’s policy toward Iran, because Iran is a neighboring
state,” noted Dr. Martha Britt Olcott, a senior associate at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Azerbaijan offers the U.S. a number of attractive strategic options
during a perilous time in world history. The Bush administration
remains committed to maintaining a significant economic, political
and military presence in the region to offset possible Iranian
aggression. However, Washington must be careful when making regional
alliances to address emerging threats, otherwise, ambitious leaders
like president Aliyev could initiate a dangerous game of political
gamesmanship resulting in regional chaos, rather than stability.
Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr. is a foreign affairs expert. He can be
reached at [email protected].

SAAKASHVILI CONVENES COMMISSION ON CONSEQUENCES OF WITHDRAWING FROM CIS
By Zaal Anjaparidze
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
May 18 2006
One consideration that may influence Georgia’s planned departure from
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is whether Tbilisi will
find itself alone and vulnerable to retaliation by an angry Russia.
So far, the Georgian government seems confident of its future
prospects.
Following the recent Russian embargo on Georgian agricultural
products (see EDM, April 20), President Mikheil Saakashvili created
a governmental commission to explore the possible consequences of
Georgia’s withdrawal from the CIS. This commission convened for its
first meeting on May 13 and is expected to submit its final report in
two months. This schedule coincides with the Georgian parliament’s
plans to discuss the continued deployment of Russian peacekeeping
troops operating under CIS mandate in the breakaway region of Abkhazia.
However, after the commission’s first session, Georgian Foreign
Minister Gela Bezhuashvili stated that, although the political decision
about Georgia’s departure from the CIS is “clear,” discussions
are underway “about when and how to do this” (Civil Georgia, TV
Rustavi-2, May 13). This tactful statement suggests that Tbilisi may
use its declared intention to leave the CIS as a tool to bargain with
Russia. In any case, Georgia’s official exit from the CIS evidently
will not take place overnight; most estimates predict it will take
closer to one year to be completed.
But so far, the Georgian government has left little room for doubt.
On January 25, Georgia quit the CIS Council of Defense Ministers,
saying it was a natural development considering the new political
leadership’s stance in favor of integration into Euro-Atlantic
structures. The decision to leave the Russia-dominated CIS is largely
perceived to be a component of this policy, although Saakashvili
regularly reiterates that Georgia’s aspiration to join NATO and to
maintain friendly relations with Russia do not and must not contradict
each other. These days Saakashvili has attempted to smooth Moscow’s
irritation with conciliatory statements such as, “We want to be
part of NATO. But still the closest friend we have is Russia, for
many natural reasons” (Financial Times, May 15; TV-Imedi, May 9;
Rossiiskaya gazeta, May 10). But it seems that Moscow no longer
takes seriously such statements when they are not accompanied by
proof and when they conflict with other statements by Saakashvili
and his associates. The attempt to mobilize the Western community
to counteract Russia’s resurrected expansionism in the post-Soviet
space was easily seen in Saakashvili’s address to the “Common Vision
for a Common Neighborhood” conference in Vilnius on May 3-4.
The Russian government has already warned Georgia that it will be
deprived of preferences within the CIS if it leaves. Other punitive
measures, including the deportation of Georgian illegal labor migrants
likely, are not far off. Citing Komsomolskaya pravda, Kavkaz Press
reports that Russian authorities might refuse to recognize diplomas
from Georgia universities if Georgia quits CIS. The move, if actually
taken, would automatically deprive many Georgians of the opportunity
to work in Russia (Kavkaz Press, May 17).
The harshest of the potential punitive measures would be the abolition
of multilateral free-trade agreements. Such agreements allow member
states to avoid double taxation and facilitate the free movement of
goods within the CIS without any customs duties. Pundits, however, say
that Georgia could compensate for these economic losses by concluding
bilateral agreements among individual CIS members.
Similar agreements already exist with Russia, Ukraine, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
Some Georgian politicians and pundits criticize the government for
challenging Russia and argue that the costs of leaving the CIS are not
the “price of freedom,” as Saakashvili’s government argues. They say
that Georgia’s impulsive departure from the CIS without a blessing
from the West or Russia would achieve only a symbolic victory, and
Saakashvili’s government might incur numerous problems, including
public disorder. The significant increase in consumer tariffs on
electricity and natural gas in May and last winter’s price hike on
imported Russian natural gas have already triggered sharp discontent
among socially vulnerable groups. “I doubt that the Georgians can
rub through for a long time,” said analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze. The
opposition sees the hand of Russia-leaning interest groups in this move
(Akhali Taoba, May 6, 13; TV-Rustavi-2, TV-Imedi, May 11-12).
Meanwhile, as anti-Russian and anti-CIS rhetoric increases, several
strategic Georgian economic entities, including energy units, are
smoothly transferring to control of CIS-based companies reportedly
backed by Russia. On May 12, the Kazakh bank TuranAlem won the tender
for Georgia’s largest telephone operator — United Telecommunication
Company of Georgia (UTCG) — beating the U.S. Metromedia International
Group, which already possesses 30% of UTCG’s shares.
The Kazakh state-run company KazTransGaz won a tender on the
Tbilisi-based gas distribution company Tbilgazi, and Greenoak Group
— reportedly tied to Russian political and business groups — won
a tender to privatize the Batumi seaport in Ajaria (Civil Georgia,
May 12; Resonansi, May 13, 15).
Whether the expected Russian pressure on Georgia brings results
desirable for Moscow will depend on the adequacy of Tbilisi’s
countermeasures and the degree of support Georgia receives from its
traditional allies in the CIS and the West. It will also depend on
the political and civic awareness of the Georgian establishment and
domestic economic performance. The already tense relations between
Saakashvili’s government and local businesses, the continued stagnation
of the Georgian economy, the falling support for the ruling National
Movement party, and the growing internal opposition to Saakashvili’s
policies all weaken Tbilisi’s stance against Moscow.
During a meeting with Croatian President Stjepan Mesic on May
7-8, Saakashvili confidently noted that Georgia would not be left
face-to-face with Russia again (TV Imedi, May 8). Growing tension
between the United States and Russia and repeated statements by
high-ranking U.S. officials about Washington’s “legitimate interests
and relationships” with former Soviet republics will encourage the
pro-Western line of Saakashvili’s team, which naturally must rule
out strengthening the highly politicized Russian economic foothold
in Georgia.
Therefore, Tbilisi must pursue careful policies with all stakeholders
in order to emerge from the current confrontation with Russia with
minimal losses.

DASHNAKTSUTIUN REPRESENTATIVE HOLDS POST OF ARMENIAN EDUCATION AND SCIENCE MINISTER FOR THE 3RD TIME
Regnum, Russia
May 18 2006
Reforms of Armenian science and education will continue in accordance
with a relevant governmental program, there will be no sharp
changes of the policy and specialists, who were actively involved in
reformation process and considerably contributed to the sphere last
years, will continue to work, Armenian Prime Minister is quoted by
Armenian governmental press office for REGNUM as stating on May 18,
presenting new Education and Science Minister Levon Lazarian to the
ministry’s stuff.
According to the Armenian premier, dismissal of ex-Minister of
Education and Science Sergo Eritsyan was caused by political reasons.
It is worth stressing that Levon Lazarian, who represents
Dashnaktsutiun Armenian Revolution Federation, holds post of Education
and Science Minister for the third time. Sergo Eritsyan, who is deputy
leader of Orinats Yerkir (OYe) Party, demitted immediately after the
party’s Head Artur Bagdasaryan had announced his leaving of ruling
coalition and his resignation as Speaker of the Armenian Parliament. “I
do not imagine my activity in opposition field,” Sergo Eritsyan stated,
commenting on his decision to leave the party. Nevertheless, Eritsyan
did not succeed in keeping the ministerial post. Instead of it the post
of presidential adviser on education and science will be offered him.

IRANIAN, ARMENIAN MINISTERS DISCUSS BILATERAL COOPERATION
Regnum, Moscow
17 May 06
Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki has received Armenian Energy
Minister Armen Movsisyan who is paying an official visit to Tehran,
Iranian state radio reports.
During the meeting, Mottaki noted the importance of boosting
cooperation between Iran and Armenia and focused on studying ways of
expanding cooperation between the two countries.
“It is important to study new ideas and conditions and prepare the
ground for cooperation between the two countries in the sphere of
transport communications, including in the construction of the
Kadzharan tunnel, in railway communications, in the development
of private businesses, in the creation of preferential terms and
simplifications for business circles, as well as in risk reduction,”
the Iranian foreign minister said.
He said that the growth in the trade balance between Tehran and
Yerevan can raise bilateral cooperation to an acceptable level,
and cooperation between regions, especially between Iran’s northern
provinces and Armenia, will be of benefit in this context.
Expressing his satisfaction with the active work of the two countries’
joint commissions, Movsisyan said that the negotiations between Iran
and Armenia on the construction of gas pipelines, power lines and a
new road between the two countries will raise the level of bilateral
cooperation.

FRENCH DRAFT PROPOSAL DISCUSSION BEGINS IN PARLIAMENT
By Anadolu News Agency, Paris
Zaman, Turkey
May 18 2006
The draft proposal, which was submitted by the Socialist Party to
parliament in France, and criminalizes denial of the Armenian genocide,
will receive parliamentary discussion as a second topic at today’s
sessions in the parliament.
In the statement that was earlier posted on the parliament web site,
the draft proposal put forward by the Socialists had been announced
to be handled as the third topic.
If discussion over the draft proposal remained after 1:30 pm,
discussions would begin again after October next year, the beginning
of a new legislation year.
Reportedly, treating the proposal as the second topic increases its
chances of being voted on if its discussion in parliamentary ends
before 1:30 pm local time.

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS TO VISIT AZERBAIJAN FIRST
Today, Azerbaijan
May 18 2006
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs together with their states high ranking
Foreign Ministry officials are expected to visit the South Caucasus.
Russia’s Charge d’Affaires in Azerbaijan Pyotr Burdikin told
journalists that the visit will start from Azerbaijan. Explaining the
objective of visiting together with FM officials, the diplomat said the
Minsk Group is trying to achieve the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict and added that sometimes new figures joining the negotiating
process brings new approaches to the stances of the parties.
According to APA, Mr.Burdikin also said that a number of options and
plans have been discussed during the negotiating process, the option
that was rejected before, was accepted later on. The Russian diplomat
noted that none of these options are being discussed at present. He
did not forecast what results will be in the end of the talks.
“This is a very difficult issue, but I believe there will be a
progress,” he stressed.
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress