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NEIGHBOURS
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FOR A COMPREHENSIVE KURDISH POLICY
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Source: `Turkish Daily News` newspaper (Turkey) [April 04, 2006]
Author: Cengiz Aktar
We no longer hear the representatives of the Kurds saying anything
about Turkey’s European Union process, apart from waving the EU
flag. While one would expect disenfranchised regions where Turkish
Kurds form a majority to become the main focal point of EU preparation
efforts, neither the Kurds nor the government seems remotely
interested in these regions. Just the opposite, the Kurds’ main focus
and interest seem to have shifted from the West to the south, i.e., to
the ‘Kurdistan region’ in Iraq’s north and the United States, which
supports it. The Turkish government, on the other hand, is constantly
delayed in implementing the policies aimed at developing the region.
We no longer hear the representatives of the Kurds saying anything
about Turkey’s European Union process, apart from waving the EU
flag. While one would expect disenfranchised regions where Turkish
Kurds form a majority to become the main focal point of EU preparation
efforts, neither the Kurds nor the government seem remotely interested
in these regions. Just the opposite, the Kurds’ main focus and
interest seem to have shifted from the West to the south, i.e., to the
`Kurdistan region’ in Iraq’s north and the United States, which
supports it. The Turkish government, on the other hand, is constantly
delayed in implementing the policies aimed at developing the region.
Economic dead-end:
For example, only one project was initiated in the east with the
limited EU assistance given between 2002 and 2004. It involves a
regional development project covering the provinces of Malatya,
Bingol, Elazig, Tunceli, Agri;, Igdir, Kars and Ardahan, together with
five provinces in the west. The EU provides 70 million euros, while
Turkey provides 20 million euros for the project. It is being said
that a social housing loan from the European Council’s Development
Bank that was intended for Diyarbakir did not materialize due to the
failure to receive a guarantee from the Treasury. Nationally, while
eastern provinces should have a privileged status in incentives for
investments, there is no such effort.
It is hard not to ask the question as to why the private sector would
in invest regions in which the public authorities themselves do
not. The guiding principle of this matter is the improvement of the
investment environment and that of the perception of risk. However,
the present environment is not suitable. While the government does not
invest in the economic development of the region, fearing it would
augment separatism, the region itself remains poor, and the people
flooding the streets as a result of an unemployment rate approaching
probably 50 percent become the potential victims of all sorts of
inciters and provocateurs. We also need to add to this vicious circle
some Kurdish politicians said to be thwarting investment in the region
with the aim of fueling discontent.
The general unwillingness displayed towards economic development
results in the matter being handled from only its security
perspective.
Those who long for the past:
The moderation, calmness and professionalism shown by the security
forces against the recent incidents, which otherwise point to a very
serious and deep social movement rather than a series of clashes
incited by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), is an important fact
and an indication that there is no shift in policy. Despite this
clever reaction by the security forces, there are some who link the
current state of the Kurdish problem and the failure of the PKK to lay
down its arms with the political reforms initiated as part of the EU
process. They argue that the reforms expanding freedoms are behind the
terrorist actions and clashes getting out of control. They believe the
solution lies with a return to the hard-handed tactics used between
1984 and 1999. As if what was done then solved the Kurdish problem.
Turkey lived through the debate of `freedoms versus security’ between
1984 and 1999 and paid a heavy price. Neither terrorist violence nor
force used against it produced a sustainable solution to the problem,
and eventually a new era began. The policy of approaching the Kurdish
problem from a peaceful stance, developing since 1999, should thus be
strengthened, not weakened.
A statement made by Diyarbakir Governor Efkan Ala that `Many children
flooded the streets. We sprayed water on them. If we had used force,
which is exactly what the terrorist organization wanted, we would have
gone back 20 years’ is the most meaningful summary of the stance taken
by the public authorities.
Those who want to perceive the Kurdish problem as a blood feud
constantly cite the 30,000 martyrs. However, policies cannot be based
on those who passed away. We can only learn from past pain, just like
the Europeans, who said `never again’ after two world wars that
claimed 7 million and 46 million European lives respectively and who
sought ways to make the peace on the continent a permanent fact of
life.
Here one cannot fail to remember the sharp response Israel’s
experienced politician Shimon Perez gave to Hard Talk’s Tim Sebastian
on BBC World a few years ago. The journalist, citing the Oslo process,
asked a question to Peres, implying how hard and dangerous it is to
make peace with the Palestinians, and got this unexpected answer:
`It’s all well and good, but you don’t make peace with your friend!’
An undersecretariat for eastern provinces:
Politicians of Kurdish extraction need to engage in politics on the
national level in the next general elections. The underprivileged
regions where the Kurds live need to adapt to the EU acquis and
implement it, especially on organic agriculture and rural
development. Incentive mechanisms for investment in these regions need
to be reassessed. New Iraq and Kurdish policies that will consider the
Kurdistan regional government and Iraq’s President Jalal Talabani as
valid interlocutors need to be put in place. The broadening of the
amnesty needs to be considered. In short, a comprehensive policy that
would facilitate all these measures and many more could be the task of
a new undersecretariat for the eastern provinces linked to the Prime
Ministry.
Today’s Turkey is no longer a country where the `use of force’ is a
viable option in political, social, economic and even military
terms. We have no other option but to resort to constructive policies.
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PERSIAN OVERTONES
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Source: `Zerkalo’ newspaper (Azerbaijan) [April 01, 2006]
Author: Murad Huseynov
What will be the Outcome of Azerbaijan’s Joining the Anti-Iranian Coalition?
Preliminary agreement on Baku joining the anti-Iranian coalition was
reached in Washington during the meetings of Deputy Foreign Minister
of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov with American diplomats. `Ayna’ newspaper
made such a statement in its yesterday issue.
In Washington Araz Azimov met representatives of Pentagon, USA
Department of State and the Security Council. It is expected that in a
while, the high-ranking representatives of Pentagon and State
Department will arrive in Baku. `Turan’ agency, with a reference to
diplomatic sources, states that Assistant US Secretary of State,
Matthew Brize will be the head of one of these delegations. In the
course of these meetings, the position of official Baku on Iranian
crisis will again be clarified. Thus, US Secretary of State,
Ms. Condoleezza Rice is now on a Europe tour. Undoubtedly, the main
issue for negotiations during Ms. Rice’s visit to Europe will be
formation of anti-Iranian coalition. It has already been reported that
several countries supported the idea of imposing sanctions against
Iran.
On the crossroad
The decision for participation in the anti-Iranian coalition is not
simple for Azerbaijan. In contrast to the Iraqi crisis, now the case
is not about the operations far from the country’s territory but those
implemented close to the state border of Azerbaijan. Besides, this
time the target is one of the largest political players in the Caspian
and South Caucasus. Therefore, a logical question: what counteractions
will ensue for Azerbaijan after joining the anti-Iranian coalition?
In principle, Azerbaijan has already experienced preliminary form of
pressure. It is the reaction of official Tehran to the statements
voiced during the World Second Congress of Azerbaijanis. The thoughts
about a divided homeland, the problems of Azerbaijanis residing in
Southern Azerbaijan, the necessity for unification and other issues
are periodically voiced in our country. These statements are always
made by various public figures, not directly linked to the official
structures. Never before did the Iranian side give such a rigid
feedback. The nervousness of official Tehran is conditioned by the
extremely tense atmosphere in this country as to the Washington plans
for `punishing’ the theocratic regime in Tehran.
In particular, one of the possible methods of the anti-Iranian
campaign of USA is considered to be the Americans’ using ethnic
Azerbaijanis of Iran as a power center. It is a sort of a `fifth
column’. In this situation it is natural that official Tehran aims to
neutralize any message sent to the ethnic minorities, residing on the
territory of the country.
It is just a preliminary reaction. If Azerbaijan renders more concrete
support to USA, official Tehran will certainly take more rigid
countermeasures.
What will be the full-scale reaction? Before answering this question,
it is essential to note that today one of the main opponents to
introducing sanctions against Iran is Russia. In other words, it is
likely that the majority of the counter actions of Iran against
Azerbaijan will be agreed with Russia.
Escalation of the conflict
Most probably, if Azerbaijan supports the idea of American sanctions
against Iran, official Tehran, joined by Russia, will take all effort
for aggravating the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani
confrontation line. Tension on the front line is of high advantage to
Tehran and Moscow, since thus they will be able to control and
pressure both Azerbaijan and Armenia. In this case, both Baku and
Yerevan will think ten times before giving even minimum support to USA
in any actions against Iran. Besides, in case of the resumption of
even local military actions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation
line, the possibility of military strikes against Iran from the
territory of Azerbaijan will be considerably reduced -conducting a
military operation on the territory of the country, which is itself in
a state of war, is impossible. To this effect, Iran and Russia may
instigate the two sides of the Karabagh conflict for starting military
actions.
Azerbaijan may be promised, `you start and we will ensure liberation
of your several regions”. With Armenia, it is much more simple – Iran
and Russia are its strategic, economic and political partners in the
region, so official Yerevan may face claims for paying back the
`debts’. In principle, the situation on Armenian-Azerbaijani
confrontation line is getting tenser each day; the sides bring mutual
accusations of breaking the ceasefire regime, there are losses from
both sides.
On the other hand, Americans are doing their best to suspend
escalation of the conflict. If you pay attention, recently the
Karabagh conflict is mostly spoken about by American Co-chairman of
OSCE Minsk Group, Steven Mann. It is him that calls 2006 optimal year
for resolution of the Karabagh conflict. Another example may be the
regional visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried and
intensive negotiations with the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia
on the issue of peaceful settlement of the Karabagh conflict and
opposition to resuming military operations. At the same time, it is
essential to note that if Azerbaijan starts taking concrete steps,
Iran may even recognize the so-called `Mountainous Karabagh Republic’
as a sovereign state.
Islamic factor
Another `response’ that Azerbaijan may get for the support of the
American initiatives on the Iranian issue may be the Islamic
factor. Up to recently, Baku did not pay special attention to the
Islamic factor and the activity of Iran in this direction. It was
considered that in Azerbaijan, the positions of pro-Iranian Islamists
are weak. However, the `cartoon scandal’ and the feedback in
Azerbaijan dispersed the doubts. In our country, there are Islamists
that Iran may take advantage of. Judge by yourselves, in the heat of
the `cartoon scandal’ Baku streets were suddenly full of people
allegedly belonging to several mosques in the country and actively
engaged in protest actions. In the chief mosque of the country – `Teze
Pir’ – they actively expressed their discontent with the activity of
sheikh al-Islam. The protest actions were very similar to the rallies
held in Iran at a time. These protests were well organized; the
participants of allegedly spontaneous actions had thei!
r heads. The actions were video recorded; moreover, frequently the
representatives of the foreign electronic media, accredited in
Azerbaijan, came to the site more quickly than the Azerbaijani
channels.
It is common knowledge that the majority of the mosques in the country
are controlled by the Spiritual Department of Caucasus Muslims. Thus,
affiliation of the people, protesting and criticizing the Allakhshukur
Pashazade, to several mosques is doubtful. These are the forces Iran
can use in case of Azerbaijan’s joining the American
initiatives. Considering the extremely religious population of Baku
villages and southern regions of Azerbaijan, with a `good push’ a
critical mass of people may be formed, which can hardly be resisted by
the authorities.
Besides, it is essential to consider that in case of Azerbaijan
joining the anti-Iranian coalition, official Tehran will start
mobilizing the so-called `Arabian street’ against us. Will the
law-and-order bodies of the country cope with the cohort of extremists
from the Middle East is a big question.
Russian factor
If Azerbaijan joins the anti-Iranian coalition, Moscow may take
measures aimed at deterioration of the economic and political
situation in Azerbaijan. Thus on the supply line of natural gas to
Azerbaijan, an accident may occur taking several months for the
consequences to be removed. In Azerbaijan, energy crisis automatically
occurs – the regions are left without electricity, the capital getting
electricity with intermissions. Besides, official Moscow may take
sanctions against Azerbaijani gasterbeiters working in Russia. Today
the majority of the families in the regions live with the funds from
the relatives that went to Russia in search of a job. At a point,
these funds may suddenly cease to arrive, and the gasterbeiters may
return to the country. Both factors will certainly have a negative
impact on the situation in the country, while in combination with
other factors, for instance with aggravation of the tension around
Karabagh, they may break stability in the country. Besides, no one is
insured against repetition of the situation in the 90s, appearance of
new rebellious colonels or terrorist acts.
Though, in case with Russia there is a possibility that official
Washington and Moscow will be able to reach agreement on Iranian
issue. In this case the threats to Azerbaijan by Russia are reduced.
Finally, there is a military threat too. It is no secret that the
sanctions against Iran are likely to turn into military operations. In
this case, the entire territory of Azerbaijan is menaced, including
the oil fields. It is stated that the Iranian navy in the Caspian is
not very strong but there are missiles too. During the first Iraqi
military campaign, US administration stated that the territories of
the countries, from which Iraq was bombed, would be safe. However, the
missiles to Saudi Arabia, still fell on Israel. Where is the guarantee
that in this case the situation will be different? In other words, we
should not underestimate the armed forces of Iran.
Proceeding from the abovementioned, Azerbaijan should think twice
before setting its position on the Iranian issue. Apparently, here we
may look towards the position of Turkey. There is a good opportunity
for consultations on this issue – in April, President of Turkey, Sezer
arrives in Baku.
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F AILED PROVOCATION IN ANKARA
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Source: `Golos Armenii’ newspaper(Armenia) [April 01, 2006]
Author: Seyran Shakhsuvarian
Recently, adviser to RA Minister of Defense, Major General Hayk
Kotanjian returned from the symposium on the problems of fighting
terrorism. Considering the rare cases of the participation of Armenian
representatives in such events of the Turkish side, I asked General
Kotanjian to share his impressions on this international
event. President and Prime Minister of Turkey participated in the
opening of the event.
– How would you assess the work of the symposium on international
cooperation in fighting terrorism, recently held in Ankara?
– Overall, the symposium was well organized. It resulted in
professional discussion of urgent problems of counter terrorism by the
representatives of state and nongovernmental organizations from
various countries. Alongside prominent analysts from many countries,
the presentations were made by Chairman of US Incorporated Committee
of Chiefs of Staffs, Peter Peys, President of Afghanistan Hamid
Karzai, Assistant Secretary of Defense Thomas O’Connell, Chief of
Turkish General Staff and others. The scope of the symposium, as
embracing the international community, is manifest in its geography.
Here is an incomplete list of the countries participants: Albania,
Austria, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Armenia, Afghanistan, Belgium, Bulgaria,
Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Georgia, Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Mauritania, Macedonia, Morocco, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Russia, Romania, Slovakia, USA, Ukraine,
France, Croatia, Czechia, Switzerland, Sweden, Japan and others.
– What is the interest of the Armenian side for participation in this
symposium?
– Previously, the representatives of the armed forces of Armenia and
Turkey had an opportunity for participating in the events only under
the NATO `Partnership For Peace’ programme. In this international
event, foreign specialists, including the representative of Armenia,
participated by the invitation of the Chief of Turkish General
Staff. The symposium, combining the formats of both multilateral and
bilateral contracts, gave an opportunity, in the conditions of the
absence of interstate relations between Armenia and Turkey, for direct
observation of the current activity of the neighbor in one of the most
sensitive and complicated spheres of international cooperation.
– What are your impressions of visiting the Center for Fighting
International Terrorism, that organized the symposium?
– The sponsors of the international center are Turkey, USA, Great
Britain, Bulgaria and Romania. A briefing was organized for me on the
nature of the activity of this scientific analytical institution with
the participation of international representatives of the organizing
countries.
– The media stated that the presentation of the Chief of Turkish
General Staff at the symposium on fighting terrorism referred to the
activity of ASALA?
– Yes, it did. The English version of General Ozkok’s presentation was
distributed to all participants of the symposium. The one line
citation, devoted to ASALA, is as follows, `The majority of our
diplomats were killed by ASALA terrorists”.
– Did you feel any tension in the attitude of the Turkish specialists
towards you?
– My participation in the work of the symposium may be viewed as
useful from the aspect of impartial observation over the
situation. However, my mission was somehow frustrated by the attempts
of certain circles to start a scandal as to the participation of the
representative of the armed forces of Armenia.
On March 24, the second day of the symposium, at a lunch break I was
surrounded by the journalists with TV cameras. According to the
publications in the Turkish press, yesterday I opposed the mentioning
of ASALA in the report of the Chief of General Staff and allegedly
made a scandalous political demarche as a military man, leaving the
session hall in protest. In this respect, I was asked a number of
questions. Reacting to the situation, the officers among the
organizers of the symposium approached me. In their presence, I
declared about the falsity of the publication and the necessity for
clarifying the situation with the organizers of the symposium.
– How was the incident with scandalous disinformation settled?
– It should be noted that suppression of the sophisticated provocation
with far-reaching political implications was quickly supported by the
representatives of the Turkish General Staff. At the lunch, the
representative of the hosts of the symposium expressed regret as to
the fact of disinformation. In his opinion, it is a provocation
fabricated by several groups of the opponents of improving relations
between our countries. Representative of the Turkish General Staff
stated that military leadership values my self-control and will take
steps for publication of a refutation of the disinformation in the
press.
In the current situation, the primary objective was disclosure of the
deception by the instigators attempting to undermine the political
image of Armenia. My answers to the questions of the press
representative invited for lunch by the Turkish military men: “was
there a demarche against the presentation of the Head of General Staff
of Turkey?” and `what is my assessment of General Ozkok’s report?”
were based only on neutral stating of facts by a military officer,
`There was disinformation of the public. In the course of all the
sessions of the symposium I was at my place next to my colleagues –
Generals from Algeria and Croatia”; “General Ozkok’s report, in
professional terms, was relevant to the agenda of the symposium on the
problem of counter-terrorism”.
On the next day, the refutation of the previous disinformation on an
alleged demarche was published by a number of Turkish newspapers. By
the way, I brought with me the mentioned texts of the report and the
refutation.
Seyran Shakhsuvarian is the Press secretary of RA Ministry of Defense (Ed.)
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BADRI IN DANGER
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Source: `Georgian Times’ newspaper (Georgia) [April 01, 2006]
Author: Maya Kartvelishvili
Three Enemies of Georgia – Moscow, Thieves, Oligarchs
Famous businessman and art patron Badri Patarkatsishvili has no way to
retreat. On March 29, first solar eclipse occurred in the twenty first
century. On March 29, President of the Federation of Businessmen,
Patarkatsishvili marked eclipse for the Georgian authorities in his
historical and scandalous speech. He has two options – either to
eclipse the daylight of the revolutionary government once and for all
or to leave the home country, where he found refuge after persecutions
in Russia.
“Silence is equal to a confession of guilt”, Badri Patarkatsishvili
stated at the meeting of the Federation of Businessmen and accused the
authorities of embezzling 160 million laris (about 90 million USD),
racketed from the businessmen. His accusations sounded very
convincing.
The meetings of the Federation of Businessmen always raised special
interest. Certainly, this interest was largely nourished by
Patarkatsishvili’s name… A few months after the `rose revolution’,
the businessmen, assembled at the Federation’s office, gave a stormy
applause to the optimistic statements of Badri Patarkatsishvili.
In two years, these entrepreneurs, a bit lost and embarrassed,
listened to the statement of Patarkatsishvili about `silence equal to
treason”. The billionaire businessman shifted his attention to
politics.
In his presentation, Patarkatsishvili emphasized several times that
his criticism is conditioned by his manner to be outspoken to those
whom he wishes best. However, Patarkatsishvili is the one who knows
how painful and inadequate is the reaction of the current authorities
to even most harmless statements. Viewing the speech of Badri
Patarkatsishvili as a reprimand would be very naive.
What did he manage to see in the nine months that was previously
hidden? What was the radical step of the extremely careful billionaire
motivated by, and will the statements at the Federation of businessmen
become a prelude to more decisive actions?
A vivid illustration to the political heartbeat of the authorities
were the vague implications on the tender of the failed `Don Corleone’
and the three worst enemies of Georgia – Moscow, thieves and
oligarchs. This counterargument of the authorities was voiced by the
strongly panicking ideologist of governing `National Movement’, Giga
Bokeria. `Don’t make an enemy of me”, Patarkatsishvili stated. In
response, a few hours later he got an accusation of the authorities,
`The leader of the opposition and its possible sponsor. They already
started to build an enemy image of Patarkatsishvili.
Anyway, why should the businessman take the risk for openly opposing
Sahakashvili’s government? Why did the billionaire stake everything?
It is a fact that Patarkatsishvili and his friend Berezovski took
different roads. Patarkatsishvili fully reimbursed the media assets of
Berezovski and ensured their neutrality as to the Kremlin. In
exchange, he received guarantees of immunity. In the time to come, he
intends to join larger and more important Russian projects.
According to the confidential information, Patarkatsishvili actually
sold his `Imedi’ (`Hope’) TV company “News Corporation”, owned by
Rupert Murdock. The Georgian businessman has 10 percent of the
assets. In addition, a good friend and business partner of
Patarkatsishvili, Shimon Peres is in the Israeli government. Thus we
may state that the pieces on the chessboard are in a position very
advantageous to Patarkatsishvili. Therefore, he is going out of the
shade. He is leaving the shade also because President Sahakashvili is
now unable to resist him: the international community gives a very
critical assessment of the activity of the Georgian leader, whereas
Sahakashvili has a very stable position in Russia, USA and Israel. The
world, no less than the Georgians, is exhausted with the eccentricity
and inadequacy of Sahakashvili. Therefore, Badri, having evaluated the
political situation, took a start from big business into big politics.
But… In Georgia, no one is protected. Already in its previous issue,
`Georgian Times’ warned about the start of terrible and radical
repressions. Repressions already began… The destroyers of the
prisoners now passed on to the businessmen… In this context, the
denunciatory speech of Patarkatsishvili – his criticism of the
terrorist path chosen by the authorities, the issue of the
`disappearance’ of 160 millions, other schemes of the government –
acquire heroic glamour Badri Patarkatsishvili has already stepped over
the threshold… Consequently, his business, property, reputation and
even life are at risk. In Georgia, account settling is quite common.
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