MONTENEGRO BREAKS AWAY: WILL ABKHAZIA FOLLOW?
by Maksim Yusin
Translated by Pavel Pushkin
Source: Izvestia, May 25, 2006, pp. 1-2 EV
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
May 25, 2006 Thursday
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Trans-Dniester are watching Montenegro;
Montenegro’s independence is sure to inspire all those who are striving
for a revision of internationally-recognized borders. This primarily
applies to the regions where interethnic bloodshed has flared already,
with conflicts being “frozen” at some stage. Frozen, but not resolved.
Will Montenegro’s separation from Serbia trigger a chain reaction?
That might well be the most pressing question in European politics
today. The continent has at least ten other territories striving for
separation from the states to which they “belong” at present.
All of Europe’s potential separatists have been paying close attention
to developments in Montenegro. It’s hardly surprising that the leaders
of Abkhazia and the Trans-Dniester region were among the first foreign
politicians to respond to the referendum results. They welcomed the
“free expression of the people’s will” in Montenegro, and stated that
they would also like to hold independence referendums. But who would
recognize the outcomes of those referendums?
The Europeans and Americans are prepared to recognize Montenegro’s
independence, but say it’s a special case and any analogies with
other separatist regions would be inappropriate. There’s a certain
amount of logic behind those words.
Three federative states broke up after the communist system collapsed:
the USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. The international community
was faced with a tough decision: what kind of criteria it would use
for recognizing or not recognizing new countries.
Eventually, it was decided that recognition would be extended to
territories that possessed something akin to sovereignty within
their former states (in the case of the USSR, that meant the 15 union
republics). But autonomous formations within those republics could
not aspire to independence.
This criterion isn’t incontestable, but at least it’s clear and
definite. It has been used to redraw the map of the world. Fifteen
new state arose to replace the Soviet Union, and two states replaced
Czechoslovakia. Only the case of Yugoslavia produced a glitch:
Montenegro declined to separate from Serbia. This situation continued
for 15 years. But now the Montenegrins have changed their minds and
decided to make use of their “postponed” right to sovereignty.
This doesn’t seem to disrupt the logic of the process – but just try
explaining it to the residents of “autonomous formations” in Georgia,
Moldova, or Bosnia. They don’t care about the subtleties of diplomatic
formulations. They simply can’t understand why the Montenegrins are
allowed to do this, but they are not. Why the double standards?
So Montenegro’s independence is sure to inspire all those who are
striving for a revision of internationally-recognized borders. This
primarily applies to the regions where interethnic bloodshed has
flared already, with conflicts being “frozen” at some stage. Frozen,
but not resolved.
* * *
Abkhazia and South Ossetia (want to separate from Georgia)
1. Conflict History
After Georgia declared independence in 1991, Abkhazia (holding
autonomous republic status) and South Ossetia (an autonomous region)
declared their wish to secede from Georgia and become part of Russia.
Matters reached the point of war with Tbilisi in both cases. Russia
sided with the autonomies. The Georgians were defeated in both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, and at present they don’t control either of
the self-proclaimed republics.
2. Russia’s position
Officially, Moscow recognizes Georgia’s territorial integrity and
refuses repeated requests from Sukhumi and Tskhinvali for “admittance
into the Russian Federation.” All the same, Russia provides various
forms of aid to the governments of both unrecognized republics;
most of their residents have been granted Russian citizenship, and
the ruble is used as currency on their territories. Tbilisi accuses
Moscow of “creeping annexation.”
3. The West’s position
The United States and Europe are in full solidarity with Georgia,
recognizing its territorial integrity and calling for both conflicts
to be resolved via peaceful negotiations. Last year, when Georgian
President Mikhail Saakashvili seemed on the verge of launching a
military operation against South Ossetia, the Americans pressured
him to exercising restraint. A war was averted. However, the West
has been arming and training the Georgian military.
4. Prospects
In Tbilisi, many believe that the fate of both territories is sealed:
sooner or later, Russia will annex them. At the official level,
Moscow tries not to provide the slightest reason to suspect it of
harboring such intentions. Unofficially, Moscow makes it clear to
the Georgians that if Tbilisi attempts to use force to settle the
question of Abkhazia or South Ossetia, Russia is unlikely to stand
aside. So it’s better to negotiate, not fight. But the negotiations
have been deadlocked for years.
* * *
The Trans-Dniester region (wants to separate from Moldova)
1. Conflict History
In many respects, the Trans-Dniester scenario is reminiscent of
Abkhazia or South Ossetia. The residents of the Dniester River’s left
bank didn’t want to be part of independent Moldova, and declared that
they wanted to join Russia. The result was a brief but bloody war,
stopped only after Russia intervened, sending in troops commanded by
General Alexander Lebed. There hasn’t been any more fighting since
then, but negotiations haven’t made any progress either.
2. Russia’s position
The Russian authorities probably haven’t ever given any serious
consideration to annexing Trans-Dniester. The practical aspects would
be too difficult: Russia doesn’t share a border with the unrecognized
republic – they are separted by Ukraine. Moscow hoped to resolve the
conflict with the Kozak Plan, drawn up by Dmitri Kozak when he was
the senior deputy director of the presidential administration. But
Chisinau rejected the Kozak Plan, following unprecedented pressure
from EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.
3. The West’s position
The Europeans and Americans were strongly opposed to the Kozak Plan.
They were particularly annoyed by the point specifying a continued
Russian military presence on Trans-Dniester territory. When Viktor
Yushchenko’s orange team came to power in Ukraine, the West decided
to use economic measures of influence on the “separatists” in
Tiraspol. The Ukrainian authorities blocked access to Trans-Dniester
for goods that didn’t go through Moldovan customs. Tiraspol called
it a blockade. Russia sent humanitarian aid to Trans-Dniester. The
West expressed full support for Kiev.
4. Prospects
The West won’t accept the Trans-Dniester region’s separation from
Moldova under any circumstances. The European Union’s activity with
regard to Trans-Dniester is likely to increase, especially after
Romania joins the EU, since it’s the major force lobbying for Moldova’s
interests. A military solution to the conflict is unlikely, especially
since Russian peacekeepers are still present in Trans-Dniester.
* * *
Nagorno-Karabakh (wants to separate from Azerbaijan)
1. Conflict History
The Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region, part of the Azerbaijan
Soviet Socialist Republic, had a mostly Armenian population. In the
late 1980s, they started making demands to join Armenia. The first
inter-ethnic clashes flared up even before the USSR collapsed, and
the bloodiest fighting happened in 1992-93. With Armenia’s support,
the Armenians of Karabakh won the war – capturing all the disputed
districts, as well as some adjacent regions of Azerbaijan. The conflict
has been frozen ever since.
2. Russia’s position
Moscow officially recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan,
and acts as a mediator. All the same, many Azeris suspect Russia of
siding with the Armenians and lobbying for their interests. The Azeris
claim that the Armenians wouldn’t have won the war for Nagorno-Karabakh
without help from Russian Armed Forces units stationed in the region.
3. The West’s position
The United States maintains close relations with Azerbaijan,
encouraging it to pursue “a foreign policy independent of Russia.”
Relations with Armenia are more complicated, since Washington considers
that the Armenian government looks to Moscow too much.
However, there are influential Armenian diasporas in the United
States and in Europe. They prevent the West from siding entirely with
Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
4. Prospects
The Nagorno-Karabakh status negotiations are deadlocked. Armenia
insists that Nagorno-Karabakh should be independent, while Azerbaijan
refuses to consider the idea. Baku occasionally threatens to resolve
the problem by force, while pointing out that time is on Azerbaijan’s
side: it’s an oil-rich country that can spend far more on its military
needs than Armenia, which has essentially been existing in blockade
conditions for the past 15 years. All the same, the Azeri military
isn’t ready to challenge Armenia as yet.

RUSSIAN MILITARY VEHICLES WITHDRAW FROM GEORGIA TO ARMENIA
Agence France Presse — English
May 25, 2006 Thursday 7:44 AM GMT
Russia has transferred a batch of military equipment to its base
in Armenia from neighbouring Georgia as part of a planned troop
withdrawal, a senior officer said.
“A first column arrived at Gyumri, home to the 102nd Russian Base.
There will be many more columns,” said the head of the Armenian
military’s general staff, Mikael Arutiunian, on Wednesday.
The equipment being transferred from Russia’s Akhalkalaki base in
southern Georgia consists mainly of communications equipment and
non-armoured vehicles, he said.
“Under the terms of an agreement with the Russian side, tanks and
other armoured vehicles will not be transferred to Armenia. They will
be sent to Russia,” Arutiunian said.
Under a May 2005 agreement, Russia is to complete the closure of two
military bases in Georgia by the end of 2008. Withdrawals of tanks
and other heavy weapons are ongoing, with trainloads of materiel
heading through Azerbaijan and across the border into Russia.
Armenia maintains close military and economic links with Russia.

RUSSIA UNION OF ARMENIANS FOR PEACEFUL KARABAKH SETTLEMENT
by Syuzanna Adamyants, Tamara Frolkina
ITAR-TASS News Agency
May 25, 2006 Thursday 10:44 AM EST
The Union of Armenians of Russia calls for peaceful settlement of
the Karabakh problem, Ara Abramyan reelected president of this public
organization told Itar-Tass in an exclusive interview.
He said, “The Karabakh problem was one of the main problems discussed
at the organization’s third congress in Moscow”. “We must be friends
with the Azerbaijani diaspora and must try to settle the problem
peacefully,” Abramyan said. “There are no problems between the Armenian
and the Azerbaijani diasporas.”
Abramyan pointed out the main trends of the organization’s work,
among them work with the youth, with law enforcement bodies, contacts
with the country’s top leaders, promotion of the social and economic
development of Armenia, recognition of the Armenian genocide, work
with the Armenian diasporas broad and in Russia and with all other
national associations. He believes it is essential to attack xenophobia
and racial discrimination and to inculcate tolerance.
The Armenian diaspora, Abramyan said, “will actively participate in
the parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia.” “The Union
of Armenians of Russia will actively participate in the parliamentary
elections through the lobbying of the interests of Russian citizens
of the Armenian origin.”
“The Union of Armenians of Russia will support in every way all the
parties that will take ethnic diversity of Russia into account in
their programmes,” Abramyan said.

ARMENIANS OF RUSSIA CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER BILATERAL COOP – PRES
by Susanna Adamyants, Tamara Frolkina
ITAR-TASS News Agency
May 25, 2006 Thursday
Russian-Armenian relations have been developing in the spirit of
partnership and mutual respect, Armenian President Robert Kocharian
said in his greeting message to participants in the congress of the
Union of Armenians of Russia.
“Representatives of the Armenian and Russian diasporas always played an
important role in the two countries’ relations. The Armenian diaspora
fully integrated into the Russian society contributing to all areas
of its activities,” he said.
The Union of Armenians of Russia made a considerable contribution
“to keeping good traditions of cooperation between the two countries,”
Kocharian said.
He expressed the hope that this organization would help translate
into reality projects involving all Armenians of Russia into multiple
activities both in Armenia and Russia.

KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE WOULD SET PRECEDENT FOR EX-SOVIET REPUBLICS – ZHIRINOVSKY
Interfax
Ukraine General Newswire
May 25, 2006 Thursday 8:31 PM MSK
If Kosovo is granted independence, the self-proclaimed republics
in the territory of the former USSR could also claim independence,
Russian State Duma Deputy Chairman Vladimir Zhirinovsky of the Liberal
Democratic Party has said.
“If Kosovo gains independence this year, which is likely to happen,
such republics as Transdniestria, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh
will also have a legitimate right to independence,” Zhirinovsky told
journalists Thursday.
“Kosovo is seeking self-determination on a territory that does not
belong to it, while the populations of those republics live on their
territories fro the most part,” Zhirinovsky said.
“Transdniestria has never been a Moldovan territory: Moldova is
historically Bessarabia, but Transdniestria is what [Russian military
leader Alexander] Suvorov won from the Turks. Abkhazia joined the
Russian Empire earlier than Georgia. As for Nagorno-Karabakh, I would
not like to offend Baku, but it should gain absolute independence
and maintain strategic relations with Armenia,” he said.
Zhirinovsky suggested that these republics might in the future join
the CIS.
Zhirinovsky is attending the 3rd congress of the Union of Armenians
of Russia as a guest. The congress opened in Moscow on Thursday.

TRAIN WITH RUSSIAN HARDWARE BEING WITHDRAWN FROM GEORGIA ARRIVES IN ARMENIA
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Military Newswire
May 25, 2006 Thursday 6:04 PM MSK
The train carrying property of the 12th Russian military base arrived
in Armenia from Georgia on Thursday, a spokesman for the headquarters
of the Russian military force in Transcaucasia told Interfax-Military
News Agency.
“Armenian customs officers have already cleared the cargoes, and the
train is heading for its destination, the town of Gyumri, where the
102nd Russian base is stationed,” the spokesman said.
The 12th Russian military base is being withdrawn from the Georgian
town of Batumi. The train carrying its property left Batumi overnight
to Thursday.
“The materiel pulled out of Batumi, namely the command post vehicle
and over 50 pieces of logistics support hardware, will be added to
the 102nd base inventory,” the spokesman said.
It is the first train with Russian materiel that has left the Batumi
base. According to the headquarters, the next train will leave Batumi
for Armenia on June 1. The entire materiel is being handed over to
the 102nd base.
Earlier reports said that two trains with military hardware,
munitions and other materiel of the 62nd military base stationed
in Akhalkalaki left Georgia for Russia on May 15 and 23. According
to the headquarters, a total of 19 trains are to leave for Russia
this year to carry materiel of the Russian military bases away from
Georgia. Six trains are to leave Batumi for Armenia.
The Russian military bases are being withdrawn from Georgia on the
basis of the bilateral agreement on their stationing conditions, terms
and order of withdrawal, signed in Sochi on March 31. The document
provides for pulling out the heavy hardware from the Akhalkalaki base
this year and withdrawing the entire base no later than December 31,
2007. The Batumi base is to be withdrawn in 2008.

SEAN MCCORMACK HOLDS STATE DEPARTMENT REGULAR NEWS BRIEFING (RE-AMB. EVANS)
Congressional Quarterly, Inc.
CQ Transcriptions
May 25, 2006 Thursday
SPEAKER:
Sean Mccormack, Assistant Secretary Of State For Public Affairs
Location: Washington, D.C.
State Department Regular News Briefing
May 25, 2006
[irrelevant parts omitted]
QUESTION: Do you have anything about the U.S. ambassador to Armenia?
Apparently the Congress is concerned about the dismissal of this
ambassador.
MCCORMACK: Well, my understanding is that he will be the — he has
plans to leave post after two years. Usually the tour is three years.
There has been an individual, a Mr. Hoagland, I believe — Mr.
Hoagland has been intent to nominate yesterday.
All appointed officials — me, everybody else who goes through
Senate confirmation — serve at the pleasure of the president and the
secretary. And certainly Mr. Ambassador Evans should be congratulated
for his long career and his distinguished service to our country.
He has served in the State Department for, what? — 35 years?
Thirty-five years.
QUESTION: Does it have anything to do with any comment on the genocide
of the Armenians.
MCCORMACK: (inaudible) Like I said, we all serve at the pleasure of
the president.
QUESTION: Is it (inaudible) that he wants to retire?
MCCORMACK: Excuse me?
QUESTION: Is it your understanding that he wants to retire after he
leaves the post?
MCCORMACK: I believe so, but you’ll have to check with him about what
his plans are.
QUESTION: And I suppose that you wouldn’t — since you didn’t answer
her question, would you be able to say whether he’s leaving post
because of his own decision, or was he asked to leave post?
MCCORMACK: Like I said, we all serve at the pleasure of the
president. And he’s done a fine job for the American people over 35
years. And we appreciate his service.
There is somebody who has been — at least the intent to nominate
has come out. And we would hope that the Senate would act in a speedy
manner on that nomination, as we would hope with all nominations that
are coming out of the State Department and going up to the Hill.

LE KARABAKH VEUT SUIVRE L’EXEMPLE DU MONTENEGRO
Agence France Presse
25 mai 2006 jeudi 1:44 PM GMT
Le territoire azerbaïdjanais du Nagorny Karabakh, contrôle par des
separatistes armeniens, a salue jeudi la separation du Montenegro
de la Serbie, esperant etre lui aussi reconnu comme Etat independant
par la communaute internationale.
“Le referendum au Montenegro a cree un precedent important. (…) Je
pense que nous avons toutes les raisons d’esperer etre reconnus (comme
Etat independant) par la communaute internationale”, a affirme le
“president” du Nagorny Karabakh, Arkadi Goukassian, en visite a Moscou.
“La republique du Nagorny Karabakh est independante et le restera,
independamment de ce que veut l’Azerbaïdjan”, a ajoute M. Goukassian,
cite par l’agence Ria Novosti.
Le Nagorny Karabakh, peuple de quelque 145.000 Armeniens, a fait
secession de l’Azerbaïdjan au terme d’un conflit arme qui a fait,
entre 1988 et 1994, quelque 25.000 morts et des centaines de milliers
de deplaces.
Un cessez-le-feu est intervenu en 1994 mais la situation reste tendue,
malgre des efforts de mediation de l’OSCE.
Le Montenegro a vote dimanche a 55,5% pour sa separation de la Serbie,
lors d’un referendum, un choix qui a marque le demantèlement definitif
de la Yougoslavie.
La separation du Montenegro pourrait ouvrir une “boîte de Pandore”
pour une myriade de mouvements independantistes en Europe et dans
l’ex-URSS, estiment les analystes.
Les independantistes du Pays basque (nord de l’Espagne) et de Catalogne
(nord-est), ainsi que la republique separatiste non reconnue de
Transdniestrie, en Moldavie, et celle d’Abkhazie, en Georgie, ont
exprime leur satisfaction après le referendum montenegrin, esperant
etre legitimes par un processus similaire.
–Boundary_(ID_d/CRkJyvrBEtkdtXLZlE/g) —

AGO GROUP ARRIVING IN YEREVAN JUNE 9
PanARMENIAN.Net
25.05.2006 16:00 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ June 9-10 Ago Group of the Committee of Ministers of
the Council of Europe (CE) will be in Armenia, acting Spokesperson of
the Armenian MFA Vladimir Karapetyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.
Ago Group is monitoring the implementation of commitments, assumed by
Armenia and Azerbaijan when entering the CE. From Yerevan the group
will leave for Baku.

ARA ABRAHAMYAN RE-ELECTED UNION OF ARMENIANS OF RUSSIA PRESIDENT
PanARMENIAN.Net
25.05.2006 16:20 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ UNESCO Good Will Ambassador Ara Abrahamyan
is re-elected President of the Union of Armenians of Russia
(UAR). Delegates of the UAR III Congress in Moscow voted for his
candidacy unanimously.
Making the summary report, the Armenian community leader said that
he considers “contribution to strengthening of the Russian state,
international peace and accord in the society” as a major task.
Besides, the largest NGO representing interests of 2.5 million
Armenians intends to “actively participate in the public and political
life of Russia, building of civil society valuable institutions.”
“We also consider boosting strengthening and development of
self-organization of our Diaspora, which is the largest in the world,
for the benefit of Russia and Armenia,” Ara Abrahamyan said. In
his words, the UAR also intends to counteract to demonstrations
of ethnic extremism, xenophobia, racial and national intolerance,
terrorism. “Our task is to bring up the young in an environment
of tolerance, as well as to strengthen centuries-old traditions
of friendship and fraternity of the Armenian and Russian peoples,”
Abrahamyan remarked, reports Interfax.