Various professional circles describe the situation created around the economy as a crisis, pointing to the problems of exporting agricultural products on the one hand, and the series of encroachments against property rights with political contexts on the other. yesterday it was Samvel Karapetyan, today it was Gagik Tsarukyan.

What concrete economic consequences will these realities have, the answer to the question? 168․amhas heard economist Hayk Farmanyanfrom

“It is an obvious fact like an axiomatic truth that what is happening will lead to short-term and long-term negative consequences. Harassment in particular will not lead Armenia to any good place. we talk about investments, we talk about the protection of human rights, etc., etc., etc., and all this becomes a bubble.

At first we saw what happened in relation to the National Economic and Social Committee, now in relation to Gagik Tsarukyan’s businesses. In addition to the social side, if we make far-reaching assumptions, we can also assume that all this is being done so that property redistribution takes place, as a result of which there is no guarantee that Turks and Azerbaijanis will not come to invest in these companies. There is also the problem of the country’s reputation,” the economist said in response.

Hayk Farmanyan also addressed the Russian side’s concerns regarding Russian capital, in this context recalling an episode of Nikol Pashinyan’s meeting with his Russian counterpart, Mikhail Mishustin.

“The Prime Minister of the Russian Federation formulated an idea roughly as follows: we hope that the government to be formed (he does not say whether it is your government or you, etc.) will create comfortable conditions for Russian capital. This was a slap in diplomatic language. He warned the Prime Minister of Armenia, and the Prime Minister of Armenia did not resolve any issues and actually came back. export problems have not been solved, and think that this trend continues.

According to my prediction, they will further toughen their position in the form of various other sanctions and clearly say: forget your TRIPP and European Union aspirations and decide whether you stay in the EAEU or go to the EU. If Armenia continues today’s line, Armenia will end up in a dead end, or we will be Turkified and Azerbaijanized,” he added.

According to Farmanyan, even if there is a problem with any businessman, in civilized countries they are solved in a different way and not by “laying a 70-year-old man on the ground, closing companies, leaving workers on the street.”

“They are doing something based on their own interests, which harms the reputation of our country,” summed up the economist.

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Israel’s government led by the Likud party recently decision maden: The recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire was strongly criticized by the official structures of Azerbaijan, one of Israel’s close allies. In an official statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Caspian Republic called the decision of West Jerusalem a matter of “serious concern”. The department described the recognition as a “distortion of historical facts” and “reducing a political solution to a complex historical problem”, claiming that the given decision made “without sufficient legal and scientific grounds” is “unacceptable”.

“Such actions do not contribute to reconciliation and mutual understanding. On the contrary, they deepen the existing contradictions and undermine efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region,” the document says.

The foreign political department of Azerbaijan called on the government of Israel to review the adopted decision.

It is known that the two countries have close relations. Baku is one of the largest suppliers of oil to Israel, an important supplier of modern weapons on the shores of the Caspian Sea.

In 2025, Azerbaijan tried to reduce tensions between Turkey and Israel regarding the situation in Syria and the Gaza Strip by organizing at least two rounds of technical consultations between the countries’ delegations. These efforts have produced no visible results and appear to have been abandoned for now in Baku.

Baku believes that Israel ignored Azerbaijan’s long-term support during the Gaza war and showed no sensitivity to the conflict with Armenia, an extremely sensitive issue for Azerbaijan. writes Ynet periodical.

According to officials familiar with the relations between the two countries, the Netanyahu government’s decision to recognize the Armenian Genocide has caused a deeper crisis in Israeli-Azerbaijani relations than it may seem publicly. Baku sees the move as crossing a “red line” by Israel, believing that West Jerusalem has not shown the mutual support that Azerbaijan has shown to Israel since the beginning of the war.

Following Heydar Aliyev’s “One nation, two states” formula, Turkey and Azerbaijan consider each other close allies. Under the Shushi Declaration signed in May 2021, the two countries commit to mutual support in the event of a third-party attack on one of them.

Baku experts like to remind how in 2020, during the second Karabakh war, Turkey F-16 fighters moved Ganja, thus sending an unequivocal signal not only to Yerevan, but also to Moscow. During the recent visit of Turkish Justice Minister Gürlek to Baku, a wider range of issues was probably discussed, but the topic of Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation, which irritates Ankara, is not often raised in the public rhetoric of Azerbaijani-Turkish “unbreakable brotherhood”.

Baku is under considerable pressure from Ankara, but at that time Aliyev understood the importance of cooperation with Israel. thinks former head of the Israeli “Native” secret service, Yaakov Kedmi. Azerbaijan needs cooperation with Israel, while at the same time it does not want to upset its “brotherly” Turkey, so in the end some intermediate option was chosen.

So far, only the Israeli government has spoken about the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, whose decision has yet to be approved by the Knesset.

Dunya Basol, one of the connoisseurs of Israeli political cuisine implies: Baku may try to exert pressure, trying to block the approval of the relevant resolution at the level of the Israeli parliament. “It is surprising that the Knesset of Israel can ignore the sensitivity of Azerbaijan in this matter and consider the alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey as a normal thing.”

According to official Ankara, Israel’s decision is a convenient way to divert public attention from the International Criminal Court’s issuance of arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a number of other officials for alleged crimes committed in the Gaza Strip. According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Netanyahu’s regime has “become a problem for all humanity” because of its policies in the Middle East.

It is known that Israel is a party to the ongoing trial at the International Court of Justice of the United Nations, where the claim related to the accusations of genocide is being examined.

Against the background of growing isolation in Europe, Israel is trying to build relations with the Republika Srpska (namely within Bosnia and Herzegovina) and a number of other state entities that have an interest in one way or another in strengthening ties with Israel and its lobbying structures around Capitol Hill and the White House.

Nevertheless, the hopes of receiving rapturous approval from official Yerevan, if there were any at all, were ephemeral (illusory) from the beginning. actively establishing relations with the western neighbor, Nikol Pashinyan’s government has long excluded the issue of recognition of the Armenian Genocide from the number of foreign political priorities. “We do not see the need for any answer or official reaction, because we believe that refusing to include the instrumentalization of the Armenian Genocide topic in the agenda is completely in the state interests of the Republic of Armenia.”

“In general, it was perceived as a belated attempt.” says Richard Kirakosyan, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan.

Combined with Israel’s military support for neighboring Azerbaijan in the 2020 war, this was far from the positive step one might have hoped for. There is dissatisfaction in Armenia that the Genocide issue has become a weapon during the conflict between the Israeli government and the Turkish leadership.

And? According to Farhad Mamedov, director of the Baku South Caucasus Research Center, Israel–Turkish “case” is the most complicated for his country. The case is unlikely to reach a frontal confrontation, but a mediated confrontation (for example, in Syria) may become a reality.

Alexander Grigoriev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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“One of the issues on the agenda of the Armenian-Iranian relations is the management of the risks arising from the TRIPP project and the elimination of possible challenges,” announced Khalil Shirgholami, Iran’s ambassador to Armenia, at a press conference held in Yerevan yesterday.

The ambassador noted that it has not been 20 days since Iran signed a memorandum on establishing peace with the US, but during this time it was violated several times.

“Therefore, Iran’s concern about the presence of Americans near its borders is very legitimate and logical, and a clear answer should be given to these concerns,” declared the Iranian ambassador to Armenia.

He also mentioned that the Armenian government has assured that as a result of the implementation of this project and the presence of the USA, no threat or challenge will be created for Iran.

“I think that we should get such a mechanism, within the framework of which Armenia will be able to realize its full potential of de-blockade, but together with that, the possible risks of the US presence and any threats against Iran should be managed and should be clearly responded to,” the Iranian ambassador emphasized.

Reacting to the above-mentioned observations of the ambassador, Nikol Pashinyan announced during the briefing today that there is no conspiracy around the TRIPP project, its main goal is to unblock Armenia and the entire region.

According to him, Armenia should be unblocked, the region should be unblocked, trains should come and go, cars should pass, electricity transit should be carried out, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, pipelines and cables should be possible. According to Pashinyan, Armenia is ready to answer all questions and dispel the concerns of partners.

He also said that Yerevan will continue to work with Iran, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, the European Union, Central Asian countries, China and other partners, as the project is of global importance.

Նրա խոսքով՝ եթե ընթացակարգերը ժամանակին ավարտվեն, ապա արդեն այս տարվա աշնանը հնարավոր կլինի սկսել առաջին աշխատանքները։ Փաշինյանը նաև ընդգծել է, որ նախագծի իրականացումը հնարավորություն կտա բացել Պարսից ծոց-Սև ծով երկաթուղային կապը, ինչի արդյունքում կընդլայնվեն Հայաստանի և Իրանի առևտրատնտեսական հնարավորությունները։

«Կարող եմ ասել, որ այս նախագծի իրականացումը բխում է նաև Իրանի Իսլամական Հանրապետության շահերից»,- նշեց Փաշինյանը։

The Iranian ambassador’s thesis about the need for a “mechanism” in the context of Armenian-Iranian relations goes beyond the scope of mere diplomatic protocols.

The concept of “mechanism” is, in fact, a requirement to create a system of security guarantees that will protect Tehran from possible threats of US influence in the region. The priority for Iran is not to block the project, but to guarantee its “political neutrality”.

It is not excluded that on the basis of the “mechanism” Iran is considering receiving legal guarantees, written assurances that the infrastructures implemented in the territory of Armenia cannot under any circumstances serve purposes against Iran. Maybe they see a need for monitoring in Iran to increase confidence. This, in turn, implies the creation of appropriate joint working groups.

Under the “mechanism”, Tehran may mean different instruments, but the main one is the record that Tehran is trying to fill the lack of trust with institutional guarantees. This is a challenge for Armenia, because in fact the public statements do not dispel Iran’s concerns, as Iran emphasizes a high level of mistrust in its relations with the United States.

Maybe this is the reason why this year the Islamic Republic of Iran is actively promoting the agenda of signing a strategic partnership document between the Republic of Armenia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Yesterday, the ambassador said that their desire and will to institutionalize the Armenian-Iranian partnership within the framework of the strategic partnership document is very serious and decisive.

“This was discussed at different levels and clear statements were made. Last week, when the Honorable Mr. Nikol Pashinyan met with the Honorable President of the Republic of Iran Mr. Pezeshkian in Iran, Mr. Pezeshkian once again emphasized the importance of this issue and the need to achieve a result as soon as possible,” he noted.

The Ambassador of Iran to Armenia emphasized that Iran is working diligently and taking steps to conclude and sign a comprehensive strategic partnership document. “We are currently working on the text of the strategic partnership document, it is at the stage of study and drafting.

I hope that we will finish this stage as soon as possible and start working on further signing. We must work to summarize and finalize this document, and the Republic of Iran will gladly welcome the visit of the Honorable Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, where they will be able to sign this document,” said Ambassador Shirgholami.

Therefore, it is not excluded that this document is one of the components of the mechanism that the ambassador was talking about. Pushing the agenda of the strategic partnership agreement by Iran is Tehran’s “insurance policy”.

Tehran seeks to ensure that these processes do not turn into a tool for undermining the security of its borders. In this case, the “strategic partnership” is not just a diplomatic protocol, but a system of institutional guarantees that should bind Armenia to Iran’s security agenda as a loyal ally.

However, the Armenian side seems to be in no hurry to sign such a document with Iran. Along with this, RA declares that it is ready to respond to all concerns, but time will tell if this is enough for Iran.

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In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan’s guest is Professor Arman Grigoryan, lecturer, doctor of political science, Lehigh University, USA.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Elections are usually used to bring clarity to existing divisions, but the Armenian elections did not eliminate polarization in the country. Our election was just a battle of negative ratings. People were voting against something, not for something.

• I don’t know what the alternative is to the elections. If the alternative to regime change is revolution, I don’t see that revolutionary energy, nor efforts to create such an atmosphere. They do not start a revolutionary struggle with the agendas of the opposition. The views of the opposition on foreign political issues were no different from those of Pashinyan. Foreign support of Pashinyan is not an excuse for the opposition. The opposition failed to propose such an agenda that would allow for a change of power:

• Raising pensions, introducing health insurance and similar actions before the elections are considered unacceptable, illegitimate and affecting the results of the elections. Declaring himself the winner at 2 o’clock in the morning, when not even 10 percent of the votes had been counted, the stories related to the “Prosperous Armenia” party cast a serious shadow on the legitimacy of this government.

• Whenever there was a real chance to oust the current government, it was due to the unification of the opposition. It was not possible to achieve a change of power without consolidation.

• There is another side to the question. If the political force does not participate in the elections, what else should it do? There is a kind of anti-democratic thing in the conversations when they said that you should not have participated in the elections so as not to pollute votes. I accept that there is an argument that perhaps it would be better to unite, or to urge their supporters to choose one force or another, but I’m not sure that would be effective either. 

• One of the conflicts between Nikol Pashinyan’s government and his political team is the opposition between the former and the present, and no matter how much we criticize that model and say that this political force has been in power for 8 years and they should build their agenda based on their achievements, the agenda of the opposition between the former and the present is working.:

• I do not accept the argument that in 2018 there was a pure color revolution. If there was no fertile soil from within, no color revolution would take place. For example, when I listened to Robert Kocharyan and his team during this campaign, I had the impression that during his time Armenia was a paradise, and he was a pioneer of realism… But it was not so. And the factor of Robert Kocharyan is important precisely because a significant part of the population of Armenia, justified or not, connects Robert Kocharyan’s coming to power with the pre-revolutionary situation. The people, demonized, exaggerated or not, do not want to return to the power of the former:

• in Armenia in 2018 in the beginning, no one took what was happening seriously, there was always the argument that there could be no revolution in Armenia, and the government was archaic. By the time they realized the danger, it was too late to do anything.

• What is happening around Armenia is a struggle for geopolitical influence. In my opinion, Nikol Pashinyan’s government has made a commitment to change the foreign policy orientation of the country. According to them, Armenia should throw off the Russian yoke and be more independent. And it has some support in society. Having seen the examples of Ukraine and Georgia, we know that it contains many dangers, and despite this, the Armenian government is moving in that direction. If this process continues, we will be deprived of the Armenian-Russian security system in the conditions when we know how aggressive Azerbaijan is.:

• Do those talking about a non-aligned state understand that we need that alliance? After all, these are elementary things. We live in some sort of alternate reality. Anyone who contradicts this is said to be a Russian agent. What will you do if the Russians leave, they leave, they remove the 102nd military base, and Azerbaijan does not hide its aggressive intentions, it declares that 300,000 Azerbaijanis must come to Armenia, and their demands will not end with the “Peace Treaty”… When you talk about it in Armenia, they laugh. We have come to a dispute where not only arguments but also facts are disputed in Armenia:

• With special enthusiasm, they announce that Russia’s situation is not good… By the way, Iran also has problems with this process. Iran’s power and influence have grown since the last war, while US capabilities have shrunk… Trump has no serious plans to do anything to impose his will on Iran that he hasn’t already done. It is incomprehensible to me that this situation is not taken into account in Armenia.

• Suppose Europe allowed the entry of our products, will it be able to fully compensate the Russian market?

• Russia has another option for escalation that they would prefer to avoid. But if the alternative is surrender, I’m not sure Russia won’t go for their version of escalation: Russia sees the loss of Ukraine as an existential threat to its state interests, and many international analysts see talk of nuclear escalation as highly relevant. In the West, however, they believe that the Russians will not take that step. I don’t think so:

• Let them not think that Russia will leave easily and calmly and leave here. Apart from that, I am not sure that Russians washing their hands is a happy prospect for us.

• Many people in the West say that Ukraine’s war against Russia is costing us cheap because Ukrainians are dying. I mean, this is not their war. According to them, the Ukrainians should die, but they themselves should reap the benefits.

• I think it was after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Turkey that Erdogan announced that TRIPP is not only a geopolitical program, but also has an economic component. It was Fidan who openly spoke about it being a geopolitical project, Matthew Bryza, Paul Goble, James O’Brien… The latter clearly said in his interview that the Russians not only should not control that road, but they should not have any part in it at all.:

• There is global instability associated with a changing world order. A unipolar world has been replaced by something unknown, and predicting where a new hotbed of instability might emerge is not so much of a fantasy genre. It is a very dangerous and undesirable scenario for us, but it is not excluded. The government of Armenia has a certain opportunity to put the country on a safer path, but it did not, unlike Georgia.

• In the context of the escalation of relations with Israel and Turkey, I believe that the relations between Russia and Turkey will not escalate, however much those two states have conflicting interests.

• Naturally, many states have recognized the Armenian Genocide out of political expediency, and Israel is no exception… Although the powers of the Israeli Knesset are running out, the issue of recognizing the Armenian Genocide will not be on the agenda…

• Western hypocrisy is abhorrent in the context of the same genocide in Gaza.

• To a 70-year-old man who did not refuse to participate in the interrogation, did not show resistance, you spread the asphalt in his house, you make such a show, so what? That it is a complete ugliness there is no doubt. I am not defending Gagik Tsarukyan, but I am talking about justice, unnecessary use of violence:

• Whose dog is Sinirlioglu to change religion in Armenia? The Armenian Apostolic Church is an institution that is an obstacle to this political process, a center of resistance, which has a high reputation among the Armenian society. They speak against the AAP in Azerbaijan as well. And it does not surprise me that the mentioned people expressed their willingness to take action against the Armenian Church…

To remind: this morning it became known that famous Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus called the Turkish OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu, to talk to him on behalf of Nikol Pashinyan, and the latter, being sure that he was talking to Pashinyan, expressed his support in removing the Catholicos of All Armenians and converting Armenia to religion.

“Feridun Sinirlioglu made a sincere confession, thinking that he was talking to Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, while in reality he was communicating with pranksters Vovan and Lexus. The authorities started a real persecution against the Armenian Apostolic Church. Arrests of clergy, persecution of undesirables. Everything by the order of the West,” reports the news channel. As the First Channel stated earlier, referring to the Foreign Intelligence Service, the ultimate goal of Brussels is the complete severing of centuries-old spiritual ties between Armenia and Russia. And the OSCE Secretary General is ready to help replace the Catholicos.

“- I also hope on the position of the OSCE that you can also support me in this matter. – I will deal with it too. By the way, can you do that? Can you replace the Catholicos?

– And I think that now I have trump cards in my hand, and we can change the religion. And all I can ask of you is your support in cases when we face great criticism from Karapetyan’s allies.

“Okay, I will do everything possible,” the news channel quotes that scandalous phone conversation.

• I do not rule out that at some point Nikol Pashinyan’s government will change its position towards Russia by 180 degrees. It is characteristic of him. Do you remember 2018-2020? how unmythical they were. So we have the experience of that.

Details in the video.

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