LA TURQUIE ET L’ARMENIE ESSAYENT DE NORMALISER LEURS RELATIONS
Thierry Ogier
Les Echos
1 juin 2006
La Turquie a annonce hier des rencontres entre diplomates avec
l’Armenie pour tenter de normaliser ses relations. Actuellement,
elle n’entretient pas de relations diplomatiques avec ce pays voisin.
Trois series d’entretiens exploratoires ont deja eu lieu depuis
l’an dernier entre des sous-secretaires d’Etat adjoints aux Affaires
etrangères. La Turquie a reconnu l’Armenie peu après son independance
en 1991, mais n’a jamais etabli de relations diplomatiques avec
l’ancienne republique sovietique en raison de la controverse sur le
genocide dont les Armeniens estiment avoir ete victimes dans les
dernières annees de l’Empire ottoman, de 1915 a 1917. La Turquie
avait propose l’an dernier la creation d’une commission conjointe
afin d’enqueter sur ces evenements. Erevan a repondu par un “oui”
conditionnel, declarant qu’il fallait au prealable etablir “des
relations normales” entre les deux pays.
–Boundary_(ID_qLqYNPAjwzgwMBAEId9GnA)–

GENOCIDE ARMENIEN: DEUX DEPUTES UMP RECUS PAR JEAN-LOUIS DEBRE
Agence France Presse
31 mai 2006 mercredi
Les deputes UMP Richard Mallie (Bouches-du-Rhône) et Eric Raoult
(Seine-Saint-Denis) ont indique mercredi avoir fait part de leur
“emotion” au president de l’Assemblee nationale Jean-Louis Debre
“devant les conditions” du debat sur le texte traitant du genocide
armenien.
Dans un communique, les deputes precisent avoir “ete recus a leur
demande par le president de l’Assemblee nationale” et “lui avoir fait
part de leur emotion devant les conditions du deroulement de la seance
d’initiative parlementaire sur la negation du genocide armenien”.
Ils ajoutent lui avoir “retransmis l’incomprehension de la communaute
armenienne devant l’absence de vote sur cette proposition de loi”.
MM. Mallie et Raoult “espèrent que le groupe socialiste remettra ce
texte dans une prochaine niche en demandant que la discussion soit
reprise au moment où elle a ete arretee”.
La discussion d’une proposition de loi socialiste, visant a faire de
la negation du genocide un delit punissable d’un an d’emprisonnement
et de 45.000 euros d’amende, a ete interrompue avant d’etre votee.
–Boundary_(ID_XAd0CVUq89xVbPh7yyhYSw)–

GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF: THE GEOPOLITICS OF BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN
Stratfor
June 1 2006
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a year behind schedule and
some 30 percent over budget, is now a reality. Though the project
will not be officially inaugurated until July 13, the approximately
1,118 mile, $4 billion line has already begun operations, with crude
already pouring into storage tanks overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.
By the end of 2006, the BTC project will be pumping 300,000 barrels
per day (bpd) of Caspian crude to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the
Mediterranean Sea. By 2008, the BTC will meet its full throughput
capacity of 1 million bpd. On average, half of that crude will come
from Azerbaijan and the other half will come from Kazakhstan.
That was not the original plan.
Initially, the bulk of the BTC crude was expected to come from
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s reserves, however, did not live up to the
hype, requiring an expectations adjustment. Regardless, the BTC project
went ahead as planned — and it was damn lucky Kazakhstan was brought
on board. Kazakh crude will cross the Caspian Sea in small oil tankers
for loading into the BTC at Baku, Azerbaijan. Kazakh and Azerbaijani
authorities expect to finalize all the agreements needed to make this
arrangement possible before the end of June.
Such a business plan makes one wonder about the economic underpinnings
of the BTC — and well it should. Of the various means of shipping
crude out of the Caspian region, the BTC is the least economically
viable. Not only does the BTC negotiate three states, it also traverses
long stretches of mountainous territory. Unlike natural gas, moving
liquid oil — every seven barrels of which weighs about a ton — up and
down mountains is hardly child’s play from an engineering standpoint.
It would have been far easier, cheaper and faster to simply link the
Azerbaijani oil fields north into the Russian pipeline network or
south into the Iranian network. Throwing in Kazakhstan, which is on
the wrong side of the Caspian Sea, left economists doubly perplexed.
Moreover, the line ends on the Mediterranean, a body of water whose
littoral states already have enough oil. Caspian crude is needed in
Asia, not Europe.
And that’s not all. In addition to being technically challenging,
expensive and geographically questionable, the line also threads its
way through some extremely dangerous regions. Before the pipeline even
gets out of Azerbaijan, it must skirt around the secessionist region
of Nagorno-Karabakh, which broke from Baku during the transition from
Soviet rule.
In Georgia, things are far worse. There, the BTC was routed to avoid
not one, but three restive regions. The first two — South Ossetia and
Abkhazia — broke away from Tbilisi in 1993. Even after 13 years of
on-again, off-again ethnic cleansing, more ethnic Georgians live in
these regions than Ossetians or Abkhazians, respectively. The other
region — Samtskhe-Javakheti — is an ethnic Armenian enclave that,
while still part of Georgia, hosts a Russian military base that poses
a challenge to Georgian sovereignty over the region. And while Georgia
and neighboring Chechnya consider themselves on the same side in the
sense that they both oppose Russian activity in the region, Chechen
fighters played a decisive role in fighting against the Georgians
in the Abkhaz and South Ossetian secessionist wars. The winds change
quickly in the Caucasus, and when they change, they change completely.
Even in Turkey — a far more cohesive state than either Azerbaijan or
Georgia — the line follows an expensive and winding route to avoid
the country’s increasingly restive Kurdish regions.
In all cases, the BTC project’s operation will flood cash into the
coffers of the states involved. Turkey expects to make $300 million
annually from transit fees alone, while Azerbaijan’s gross domestic
product will likely double within five years as a result of the
project. A fair portion of such money will undoubtedly be used
to assert the power of Ankara, Tbilisi and Baku over Diyarbakir,
Sukhumi, Tskhinvali, Akhalkalaki and Stepanakert — giving all of
those secessionist regions reason to want the BTC offline. If the
Iraq experience has taught the oil industry anything, it is that
oil pipelines are notoriously easy to disrupt, and the BTC is more
than five times the length of Iraq’s northern export system, which
insurgents have essentially shut down since 2003.
So why build an economically questionable and militarily insecure
project?
The answer is geopolitics. The Soviet Union’s dissolution left
Azerbaijan and Georgia shattered and impoverished. They were also left
sandwiched between Russia, their former colonial master, and Iran,
which had a vested interest in ensuring that its own 17-million-strong
Azerbaijani population did not take any cues from the now-independent
8-million-strong Azerbaijan to their north. The American-European
solution was to link the two states in an east-west corridor to
themselves and Turkey, rather than simply allow them to languish in
Russia’s shadow or fall into the orbit of a resurgent Iran — and they
directed their respective government-linked financial institutions
to help finance the project.
The greatest threat to the BTC project comes from Russia. Moscow
serves as the ultimate (if informal) security guarantor of Abkhazia,
South Ossetia, Samtskhe-Javakheti and Nagorno-Karabakh — regions
Russia has backed in order to keep pro-Western Azerbaijan and Georgia
off-balance. As the project was specifically designed to cut Russia
out of the loop, one can easily imagine what the Russians would
like to see done to the pipeline. And considering Moscow’s cordial
relations with these secessionist (or quasi-secessionist, in the case
of Samtskhe-Javakheti) regions, one can equally easily imagine what
tools could be brought to bear against the pipeline.
Yet, irony of ironies, the greatest hope for the BTC also comes
from Russia, which is, if anything, actually working to restrain
secessionist groups in the region from acting against the project.
The single largest investor in the BTC, as well as the oil fields in
Azerbaijan that will help fill it, is supermajor BP Amoco. BP also
happens to be the single largest foreign investor in Russia proper,
and its merger with local oil firm TNK was personally arranged and
blessed by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
While relations between Russia and the West are certainly cooling,
they have not yet reached the point where Russia is willing to take
serious economic hits to protect its geographic space.
But in the aftermath of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, the Russians
have been reformatting their foreign and security policies into more
confrontational forms, and have not shied away from using energy
policy as a tool to further national goals. Whether Russia will
attempt to take the BTC offline is not a question of if, but of when,
and the only restriction on Russian action is a pending decision at
the highest level of government on whether to advance Russian policies
to a new stage.
Project participants in the BTC include BP (30.1 percent), the State
Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (25 percent), Unocal Corp.
(8.9 percent), Norway’s Statoil (8.71 percent), the Turkish Petroleum
Corp. (6.53 percent), Italy’s ENI (5 percent), France’s Total (5
percent), Japan’s Itochu Corp. (3.4 percent), ConocoPhillips (2.5
percent), Japan’s Inpex Corp. (2.5 percent) and Amerada Hess Corp.
(2.36 percent).
m/read_article.php?id=267009

FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ARMENIAN ECONOMY SOARS 57% IN Q1
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Financial Newswire
June 1, 2006 Thursday
Most investment – $47.6 million-went to the communications sector,
including $14 million in direct foreign investment. There was total
direct foreign investment of $12.3 million in the mining sector.
The main foreign investor in the Armenian economy in the first quarter
was Lebanon at $26.9 million, up 18.6-fold. Specialists at the Trade
and Economic Development Ministry tied this to increased activity by
No. 2 cellular provider K-Telecom (the VivaCell trademark), which is
part of Lebanese investment group Fatush Group.
Greece invested $21.1 million in the economy, down 44.7%. This was
due to ArmenTel activity, in which Greece’s OTE owns 90%.
Russia invested $9.3 million, up 380%, including $1.5 million in
direct foreign investment, up 310%.

FRANCE SUPPORTS TURKEY CANDIDACY FOR EU ACCESSION
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.06.2006 15:13 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “France supports Turkey’s candidacy for accession
to the EU. Turkey approaching European norms will have an undisputed
stabilizing effect in the region as a whole. Everyone will benefit
from it, first of all Armenia,” French Ambassador to Armenia Henry
Cuny stated in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net. He said the EU is
a club with clear, detailed rules, which are compulsory for everyone
without exceptions. “Democracy, freedom of expression of opinions,
beliefs, including religious ones, human rights, including national
minority rights, lifting blockades of borders, liberalization of
economy, establishment of normal relations with neighbors are the
core of that club,” Henry Cuny remarked.
As of demonstrations against establishment of monuments to Armenian
Genocide victims in some French towns lately, the diplomat called these
“unacceptable” and “anachronistic.”
“While one of Turkish TV channels showed Ararat film on the events in
1915 with the consent of 71% of the audience, demonstrations denying
the Armenian Genocide were held in France. These demonstrations are not
in line with the evolution of the Turkish mentality,” he underscored.
From: Baghdasarian

ARMENIA’S COOPERATION WITH EUROPEAN STRUCTURES SHOULD ISSUE FROM ITS DESIRE
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.06.2006 15:19 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Approaching European standards for closer cooperation
is determined by the programs by means of which it takes place,
French Ambassador to Armenia Henry Cuny stated in an interview with
PanARMENIAN.Net. In his words, the European Neighborhood Policy,
EU-Armenia Action Plan aim at promoting this cooperation, but this
can by no means take place against Armenia’s will.
“As of the bilateral cooperation, France actively participates in such
priority cooperation fields as education. I must specially note that
the largest French university outside France is situated in Armenia. We
also cooperate in tourism and health,” the French diplomat said.

KEYS OF SHUSHI IN TABRIZ, BAKU BELIEVES
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.06.2006 15:50 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “Keys of Shushi should be sought not in Russia or
the US. They are in Tabriz. Liberation of Tabriz from Persians is
liberation of Karabakh,” former Azeri Minister of Education Firuddin
Jalilov said. “Either Russia, or US or even Turkey do not want the
North and South Azerbaijan to unite. Of course we should fight, but
our slogans on reunification will only harm. It is better to voice
slogans on liberation of South Azerbaijan,” Jalilov said.
In his words, within two weeks protest actions of Azeri Turks
are held in Tabriz, Urmia, Maraga and other Iranian cities under
slogans of liberation of the Teheran regime. “Azeri authorities
refrain from assessment of developments in the neighbor country yet,
while opposition parties support the national liberation movement
of Azeri Turks in Iran. Moreover, the Movement of National Rebirth
of Azerbaijan, World Azerbaijanis Congress and Public Union for
Integrated Azerbaijan have formed a special Committee to support
South Azerbaijan National Movement,” he remarked.

ANKARA ANNONCE DES RENCONTRES TURCO-ARMENIENNES POUR NORMALISER LES LIENS
Agence France Presse
31 mai 2006 mercredi 11:10 AM GMT
La Turquie a annonce mercredi des rencontres au niveau des diplomates
avec l’Armenie pour tenter de normaliser ses relations avec ce pays
voisin avec lequel elle n’entretient pas de relations diplomatiques.
Trois series d’entretiens exploratoires ont deja eu lieu depuis
l’an dernier entre des sous-secretaire d’Etat adjoints aux Affaires
etrangères, a indique Namik Tan, porte-parole du ministère des Affaires
etrangères, au cours de son point de presse hebdomadaire.
Ces rencontres visent a “determiner s’il y a un terrain commun
sur lequel il peut y avoir des progrès concernant les relations
bilaterales”, a-t-il dit.
Des preparatifs sont en cours pour une nouvelle serie de pourparlers,
a-t-il souligne.
Le diplomate a toutefois estime que l’Armenie devait faire preuve de
davantage de “souplesse” et d’une attitude “constructive” pour que
ce dialogue puisse etre couronne de succès.
La Turquie a reconnu l’Armenie peu après son independance en 1991,
mais n’a jamais etabli de relations diplomatiques avec l’ancienne
republique sovietique en raison de la controverse sur le genocide
dont les Armeniens estiment avoir ete victimes dans les dernières
annees de l’Empire ottoman, de 1915 a 1917.
Les Armeniens affirment que jusqu’a 1,5 million des leurs ont peri
dans un “genocide” orchestre par l’Empire ottoman, auquel a succede
la Republique turque.
Ankara soutient que 300.000 Armeniens et au moins autant de Turcs ont
ete tues au cours de troubles suscites par le soulèvement d’Armeniens
et leur ralliement aux armees russes en guerre contre l’Empire ottoman,
et lors des deportations qui ont suivi.
La Turquie avait propose l’an dernier la creation d’une commission
conjointe afin d’enqueter sur ces incidents. Erevan a repondu par
un oui conditionnel, declarant qu’il fallait au prealable etablir
“des relations normales” entre les deux pays.
Outre cette controverse, l’autre pierre d’achoppement dans les
relations entre la Turquie et l’Armenie est la question du Nagorny
Karabakh.
L’Armenie a pris le contrôle de cette enclave a population armenienne
en territoire azerbaïdjanais et des regions adjacentes au terme
d’une guerre de six ans (1988-1994). Le processus de paix n’a guère
progresse depuis.
La Turquie a ferme sa frontière avec l’Armenie en 1993 par solidarite
avec l’Azerbaïdjan turcophone et musulman.
Des compagnies privees assurent quotidiennement neanmoins des vols
entre les deux pays.
–Boundary_(ID_Tuhr7hmJIKbR24wDo/kM0A)–

ANY ATTEMPT TO DISTURB KARABAKH CONFLICT WILL TRIGGER MILITARY CRISIS
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.06.2006 16:50 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ When commenting on statement of Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov that the sending peacekeepers to Nagorno
Karabakh is possible in the air of Mayak radio publicist Yegor
Kholmogorov noted, “Any promises of international mediation cherish
first of all Baku’s ears.” “If international and not only Russian
peacekeepers actually appear in the conflict zone, moreover, if they
try to return anything against the will of Armenians, this may result
in deconservation of the conflict and turning it into an actual one,”
the journalists thinks.
“What can cause a serious chain of consequences – Armenia interferes
with the clash between Karabakh and Azerbaijan, Turkey collides
Armenia, union of Russia and Armenia, NATO treaties will come into
effect simultaneously,” Kholmogorov. “In general, any attempt to
disturb the conflict will trigger a diplomatic and military crisis,”
the expert is sure.
In his words, it is “one thing” if Russian peacekeepers “correctly
build into the situation in the conflict zone”. “Another thing” is
“if an international contingent loudly arrives to “peacekeep”. “The
world ahs already seen what this peacekeeping may end up in. And not
only in Yugoslavia…” the Russian publicist believes.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

YEREVAN: SHUSHI KEYS ARE IN HANDS OF GENUINE MASTERS OF THE CITY – KARABAKH ARMENIANS
PanARMENIAN.Net
01.06.2006 16:01 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ There is no need to look for keys of Shushi – it
is in the hands of genuine masters of the city – Karabakh Armenians,
political scientist Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan told a PanARMENIAN.Net
reporter. In his words, Tabriz, like other Turkic-speaking towns of
Iran, does not need liberation. “These are ancient Iranian settlements,
whose residents were forced to change their language owing to long-term
occupation by Turks. Ethnic Persians live there. Baku knows it well,
thus they separate Turkic-speaking Iranians from themselves and call
them “Hamshari”, he noted.
Azerbaijan is trying to contribute to collapse of the IRI to please
the US. “Iran is a tradionalist country, which worthily survived
thousands of years of success and failure. It will without fail cope
with the flow of false accusations, poured on it from Washington,
Ankara and Baku,” Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
We remind former Azeri Minister of Education Firuddin Jalilov said that
Keys of Shushi should be sought not in Russia or the US. They are in
Tabriz. Liberation of Tabriz from Persians is liberation of Karabakh.”