Regnum, Russia
Oct 6 2006
Georgia: International, not political struggle in Tsalka municipal
elections
Municipal elections in the Tsalka region of Georgia stirred a rather
tense situation. According to A-Info Agency report, buildings of the
local electoral commission and local government were cordoned by
police special forces.
Observers – ethnic Armenians – are forbidden to enter the electoral
commission building. Only MP Ayk Melitonyan succeeded in getting in.
Armenian population representatives said they feared that number of
votes for the ruling United National Movement Party would be
artificially increased, judging on the a priori falsified lists.
Candidate Nairi Dimaksyan nominated by opposition Industry Will Save
Georgia Party assured that the struggle was not between parties but
between Armenian population and the local authorities. Meanwhile,
United National Movement Party representative Ketiko Lagidze stated
she would do the utmost to minimize the number of Armenians at the
area’s sacrebulo (local governing body).

Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki was the only city where Saakashvili’s party lost
Regnum, Russia
Oct 6 2006
The city of Akhalkalaki (whose Armenian population totals 95%),
where four voting stations functioned, was probably the only urban
Georgian settlement, where the ruling United National Movement Party
was defeated, Akhalkalaki mayor Nairi Iritsyan, elected in 2002,
informed REGNUM correspondent.
“According to preliminary assessments, candidates from the Industry
Will Save Georgia Party nominated by the United Javakh Movement won
the Akhalkalaki municipal elections. 60% of voters who participated
in the elections supported majoritarians. Our success is the result
of the last several years of work,” the mayor accounted.
As REGNUM was informed by the former mayor who was candidate at the
local elections, 1,829 voters of over 7,000 registered have taken part
in the Akhalkalaki municipal elections. According to data provided by
the staff office of Nairi Iritsyan, statistics on the city elections
show: 532 voters participated in elections according party lists, of
which 289 voted for Industrialists and 219 – for the United National
Movement (UNM). At voting on majority lists, 174 residents voted for
the UNM representative and 350 – for Industrialists.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Stratfor
Oct 6 2006
Turkey, EU: Accession Reluctance on Both Sides
October 06, 2006 19 16 GMT
Summary
During a state visit to Turkey, German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid
out the conditions under which Turkey can continue membership talks
with the European Union. The conditions are ones the Turks do not
particularly care for, and mark an inflection point in Turkish-European
relations. This time next year, Turkey will be a very different place.
Analysis
In an Oct. 5 speech in Turkey, German Chancellor Angela Merkel flatly
informed the Turks that restarting the country’s stalled EU accession
negotiations would require Turkey to first allow for unrestricted
trade with both Greek and Turkish Cypriot ports — a step it has
already agreed to but that is tantamount to recognizing Cyprus.
Merkel’s statement marks the beginning of the end of rapprochement
between the Europeans and the Turks, and the beginning of a new era
of Turkish angst.
By many measures, Turkey is the perfect candidate for EU membership,
but from Europe’s point of view, every bonus has a drawback. The
Turkish market might be large and growing, but the country’s wealth
level is at the low end of the European scale. Turkey might have a
long history of interaction with Europe, but most of that was as a
conqueror that laid siege to Vienna twice (which explains why Austria
is the most hostile to Turkish membership of any EU state). But most of
all, though Turkey’s population is young and large, it also is Muslim.
Thus, though all European leaders have voiced their commitment to
Turkey’s accession process, few are genuinely excited about it.
Merkel’s statement simply publicized the feelings of most of Europe:
Turkey cannot join.
However, contrary to conventional wisdom, Europe is not the only
partner in this tango who is having second (and third, fourth and
fifth) thoughts about Turkish admittance.
Turks love the idea of being a member of the European Union, but
there are some big steps that country would have to take before it
could even begin implementing the reforms necessary to qualify.
Turkey would have to admit to ongoing persecution of the Kurds
and to Armenian genocide — and perhaps even pay reparations and
allow limited resettlement. The country would have to surrender
all territorial claims it has with existing EU states, most notably
islands in the Aegean Sea that are disputed with Greece. Turkey would
have to fully and irrevocably sever all political connections between
its government and its military — the EU only admits states with
full civilian control. And, as per Merkel’s statement, Turkey would
have to not only allow trade with Cyprus, but fully recognize it as
a political and economic ally.
Once these steps — which all existing EU states took early in their
own accession negotiations — are done, Turkey can seriously begin
to discuss joining the European Union. However, any Turkish leader
who did these things would be lynched in the streets — assuming he
lived long enough to reach them.
Policymakers in both Brussels and Ankara have sought to sidestep
these thorny problems for the past several years, with leaders on
both sides suggesting the issues be put off until the tail end of
the accession process. This is good in theory but bad in practice —
particularly if neither side ever really intends to budge.
The Turks now need to answer one very simple question: What is next?
First, they will seek confirmation of Merkel’s stance. This will not
be difficult; they need simply look to places such as Vienna, Athens
and Nicosia to discover that the anti-Turk feeling is alive and well.
Should they want further confirmation, they need wait no longer than
May 2007, when French elections will likely replace the pro-Turk
Jacques Chirac with a far more circumspect leader. Whether the French
choose Segolene Royal or Nicolas Sarkozy, both have argued that Turkey
does not belong in the European Union as a full member.
After that, the Turks will have some soul searching to do. Though
the customs agreement they currently enjoy with Europe can withstand
a change in the relationship’s overall tenor, Turkey has framed its
policies for more than a decade with the goal of knocking on Europe’s
door. The Turks will now need to re-evaluate their other (less than
spectacular) options.
Ankara wants to enhance its influence in Central Asia, given its
linguistic and ethnic ties to the region, but this is something that
provided only middling returns in the 1990s. It also is looking to
assert itself as a leader of the Muslim world through the Organization
of the Islamic Conference, in which Ankara currently holds the position
of secretary-general; yet since Turkey was one of the non-Turkic
region’s past conquerors, it is not altogether trusted. The only
option left — as politically unpopular as it might be — is a firmer
U.S. alignment.
For obvious reasons, none of these is a good choice. What is certain
is that Turkey’s identity crisis will resonate most strongly at home.
If secular Europe is not to frame Turkey’s future, then Islam will rush
in to fill the vacuum, setting up a vast array of possibilities for
clashes between Turkey’s Islamophilic government and its Islamophobic
(and coup-prone) military. The Turkish balancing act just got a whole
lot tougher.

Paris Link, France
Oct 6 2006
Chirac the Kingmaker
Fri, 06 Oct 2006 19:15:00
Gareth Cartman
Chirac loyalists are making noises – they do not seem to want Nicolas
Sarkozy in the Elysee. Should Jacques Chirac decide not to stand next
year for a third term, he finds himself in the position of Kingmaker.
Just like the socialists, his leitmotif is “Anyone But Sarkozy”.
There is no Chirac building yet in Paris. There is no Bibliothèque
Chirac, no Centre Chirac, not even a Roissy-Jacques-Chirac. Two terms
in office, and apart from the quai Branly museum, there is little to
remember Jacques Chirac by. However, he is refusing to go quietly –
if he does go at all – and his desire to stop Nicolas Sarkozy getting
into the Elysee could see one last swipe from this political monster.
Sarkozy used to be a Chirac protege. The young Sarkozy was often seen
at the side of Chirac, but that all stopped with the ‘betrayal’ of
Edouard Balladur in 1995 and Sarkozy’s defection to Balladur’s camp.
The ambitious Interior Minister’s plans for ‘la rupture’ have been
met with distaste by Chirac and the chiraquiens, who are planning
ahead to stop Sarkozy.
First of all, Chirac’s rehabilitation has been swift. A visit
this week to an Agriculture salon pitched Chirac right back in his
element. Chirac never hides the fact that his favourite period during
his political lifetime was at the Agriculture Ministry. He has racked
up airmiles like never before, travelling the world to make speeches –
controversial or otherwise. He pushed Turkey to recognise the genocide
of the Armenians recently, and back home reformed the pensions scheme
for war veterans of immigrant origin.
Many suspect that this is the first part of one of the many Chirac
‘revivals’. Considered politically dead before both Presidential
elections, Chirac kept on coming back to win. If he feels that he
will not be able to complete his comeback this time, expect Chirac
to place an ally on the way to the Elysee.
Current favourite seems to be Michelle Alliot-Marie. The Defense
Minister already has the backing of at least 50 MPs and has set up
her own association, la Chene (the Oak Tree) on the same road as
Chirac’s former RPR party. A chiraquienne at heart, Alliot-Marie has
been manoeuvring for the nomination for several weeks already. She
is likely to run against Sarkozy, and would have the full support of
Chirac should he not run.
A few weeks ago, it appeared that all faith had been lost in Dominique
de Villepin. Still the golden boy of the chiraquiens, de Villepin
has done everything within his capacity to distance himself from
Sarkozy. Where Sarkozy says “fire”, de Villepin says “hold your
fire”. Notably effective in the resolution of the Cachan crisis,
de Villepin has steadily climbed in popularity and could represent
an option should Alliot-Marie fail.
Should Chirac be re-elected, he will more than likely use his third
term to promote a chiraquien to succeed him, much as he has been trying
to do with Dominique de Villepin. The favourite for this proposal would
be Alain Juppe, who is expected to walk back into his position as Mayor
of Bordeaux. Juppe, who took the rap for corruption charges, went into
exile for two years, and Chirac feels he owes his favourite protege.
Juppe is a born fonctionnaire. A devout believer in the power of
the state, and in the power of those chosen to execute the state’s
decisions, Juppe simply could not believe how he had been treated
when charged with corruption. He remains a wholehearted chiraquien,
with the 2012 Presidential elections his true target.
This trio represent the best chances of Chirac leaving a lasting legacy
at the Elysee. As Sarkozy rejects Gaullism, the chiraquiens preach
it. Whether it is Chirac himself or one of his proteges running against
Nicolas Sarkozy, the big man in the palace will have the ultimate say
in who wins next year’s election. Indeed, he would probably even choose
Segolène Royal over Sarkozy, such is the rift between the two men.
CLE/1233/2006-10-06.html
–Boundary_(ID_1NxHRgRoQ fno2A1xS0V8LQ)–
From: Baghdasarian

NEXT ROUND OF TALKS ON ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN, NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT ENDS IN MOSCOW
[October 06, 2006, 21:18:21]
AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Oct 6 2006
Next round of talks to find peaceful resolution to the
Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh conflict passed at the level
of foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia with participation of
the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs ended in Moscow.
The meeting passed behind closed doors, foreign minister of Russia
Sergey Lavrov made statement on its results, estimating the meeting as
“positive and productive”.
In trilateral meeting, held in MFA of Russia, attending was the
foreign minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov, foreign minister
of Armenia V. Oskanian, as well as troika of OSCE MG co-chairs.
Azerbaijan delegation also included deputy foreign minister of
Azerbaijan Araz Azimov.

What to do about Georgia?
Reuters AlertNet, UK
Oct 6 2006
What to make of the latest spat between Georgia and Russia, following
Georgia’s arrest of four Russian military officers accused of
spying? It needs to be taken seriously, say two scholars in an
International Herald Tribune commentary.
The situation in the Southern Caucasus is already heating up, write
Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman, authors of “Ethical Realism: A Vision
for America’s Role in the World”. The Russia-backed Georgian province
of South Ossetia is set to hold referendum on independence in November
and Georgia is angry about this. On the other hand, the Georgians now
have a trained and equipped army for the first time since independence
thanks to U.S. help.
“…the stage may be set for an armed clash with grave repercussions
extending far beyond the Caucasus, and affecting above all the future
of the Middle East,” warn Lieven and Hulsman.
Then there is the question of Kosovo. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has already warned that granting independence to Kosovo would
set a precedent for solving disputes over independence in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Western governments don’t agree.
Lieven and Hulsman reproach the West for its different approaches to
conflicts such as Kosovo, Georgia, Palestine and Nagorno-Karabakh,
while each time proclaiming “adherence to ‘universal principles'”.
That is why both Russia and the West should apply “‘a community of
reason’, shaped not by legal but by rational and moral constraints,”
they say.
This, of course, would not be acceptable to legalists in the West,
but they should think twice before in effect encouraging new fighting
and ask themselves this: Is it worth risking a U.S.-Russian clash just
so Georgia can rule South Ossetia? Is the West prepared for body bags
from a future Caucasian conflict?
The fact that the Russian army officers were released by Georgia
absolutely doesn’t mean that the tensions between two countries have
eased, says Karel De Gucht, chairman-in-office of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, in a commentary in St Petersburg
Times, sees the arrest of the four Russians by Georgia as “an attempt
to escalate a dispute with Moscow to a level where Western powers
will have no choice but to intervene”. It warns that there are no
quick solutions to the problem.
The paper makes a series of recommendations for both sides: Georgia
should become such a prosperous country that South Ossetia and
Abkhazia stop dreaming of being part of Russia; it should also offer
concessions to the separatist regimes in the provinces to avoid any
serious military clash. Russia, for its part, should not seek regime
change in Georgia as this may lead to the country becoming a failed
state and fertile ground for insurgent groups that would target Russia,
the paper concludes.

AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Oct 6 2006
FM OF AZERBAIJAN SATISFIED WITH RESULTS OF TALKS IN MOSCOW
[October 06, 2006, 22:47:21]
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov has
commented for the Azerbaijan and Russian mass media on results of
negotiations on settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan,
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, held in Moscow with the head of the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia of V. Oskanian with
participation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.
According to Mr. Mammadyarov intensive negotiations took place in
Moscow, discussed a number of the ideas offered by co-chairmen in the
context of those problems, which have arisen during negotiating
process. ‘Basically, very constructive and productive exchange of
views on main principles of settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan
conflict took place. During negotiations, was reached arrangement
that each party takes a pause till October 24 so that to analyze the
discussed ideas. It was decided to continue negotiations at level of
Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia on October 24, 2006 in
Paris’, he has told.
E. Mammadyarov also has informed, that the format of meeting has
begun at presence of OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, and further in the
individual order. Then, separately the individual meeting with
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov took place, and
then meetings with co-chairs were held. Special envoy of OSCE
Chairman-In-Office Andrzei Kaspshik also took part in negotiations.
Answering the question whether it is possible to settle the conflict
up to the end of 2006 as it is assumed with the countries of the big
eight, the Minister has noticed, that it is not necessary to be
fastened for any terms. For it is extremely serious and sensitive
question, but we shall try to move ahead in negotiating process. “The
main subject of negotiations is the question on main principles of
settlement, and offers of co-chairmen are based on already turned out
principles which many years are discussed, in the frame of Prague
process. Now, the part of a problem is connected with the status, a
part of problem – with full withdrawal of the Armenian armies. Our
problem is to find that fragile balance on the basis of which we
could move further. We have coordinated main principles of settlement
of the conflict, but there are two not coordinated principles on
which we work. Today, just these principles were discussed’, the
Minister has noted.
Estimating activity of Russia as the co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk
Group, the Minister has declared, that ‘the Russian party has all
opportunities to show, and it shows intensive enough interest that
there was a move during negotiations’. ‘We consider, that Russia is
our both political, and the economic partner, our neighbor. No doubt,
it should play one of key roles in the context of settlement. We see
that in the given direction, Russia has a desire to bring Azerbaijan
and Armenia to the common point that we could pass to the first stage
of settlement. Certainly, such conflict cannot be solved at the same
time, and it is necessary to solve it stage by stage. And the latest
element which will come in mutual relations between Azerbaijan and
Armenia, is the element of trust, having enormous value, and in this
context Russia could play a greater role’, has emphasized E.
Mammadyarov.
The head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan also stated
that one of the problems the country faces is to lift Azerbaijan on
the level of the regional leader and it will create more
opportunities for peace settlement of the conflict. Currently, we try
that ceasefire was not broken, and simultaneously we work above the
conflict to solve it. It is important for both Azerbaijan and
Armenia, and for entire all region.

Turkey Pressures France Over Armenia Genocide Bill
Reuters, UK
Oct 6 2006
Turkey told France on Friday a draft bill that would punish anyone
denying Armenian genocide during World War One would seriously damage
bilateral economic and political ties.
The French parliament is due to debate the bill, proposed by the
Socialist opposition, on October 12.
“Approval of the law will have very negative effects on economic
ties,” Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik Tan told a weekly
news briefing. “There have been important investments between Turkey
and France through history. With this decision these investments,
built up over years, will be ruined in one (parliamentary) session.
France will, in a manner of speaking, lose Turkey.”
Though the conservative majority in France’s parliament opposes the
bill, Turkey fears many opponents will not vote against it for fear of
upsetting France’s 400,000-strong Armenian diaspora ahead of elections
next year.
Tan said Turkey, too, faces presidential and parliamentary elections
in 2007. “The people of Turkey will perceive this development as a
hostile attitude on the part of France,” he said. “This draft will
deliver a heavy blow to bilateral relations and to the momentum
previously achieved.”
Turkey’s president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, sent a letter this week to
French President Jacques Chirac on the issue and Prime Minister Tayyip
Erdogan will discuss the problem on Saturday with French businessmen
in Istanbul, Tan said. A delegation of Turkish lawmakers also warned
of harm to French trade during a visit to Paris earlier this week.
France, which has already passed a law recognizing the 1915 massacre
as genocide, had 4.55 billion euros ($5.9 billion) of exports to
Turkey last year, French Trade Ministry data show.
Turkey is stinging from comments by Chirac last weekend in the Armenian
capital Yerevan that Ankara must recognize the Armenian massacres as
genocide before joining the European Union. Turkey began EU entry talks
last year, though is not expected to join for many years. Recognition
of the Armenian genocide is not a condition of its EU membership,
though some other EU politicians apart from Chirac want to make it one.
Ankara says it is ironic that France is preparing to punish those who
express a particular view of history at a time when Turkey is under
heavy EU pressure to change some of its own laws which are viewed as
restricting freedom of expression.
Last week, Ankara reacted angrily to news that two Dutch political
parties had dropped three election candidates, all of Turkish origin,
for denying the Armenian genocide. The Netherlands, like the European
Parliament and some other countries, has urged Turkey to recognize
the genocide claims.

TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Oct 6 2006
Azerbaijan`s Foreign Ministry Appreciates Today`s Consultations
between Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia with a Careful
Optimism
Source: Trend
Author: E. Husseynov
06.10.2006
Azerbaijan`s Foreign Ministry appreciates the consolations between
the Heads of the Foreign Offices of Azerbaijan and Armenia being held
in Moscow today with a careful optimism, Tahir Taghizadeh, Chief of
the Press and Information Policy Department of Azerbaijan`s Foreign
Office told Trend today.
According to him, the discussions in Moscow started with the separate
meetings between Azerbaijan`s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and
his Armenian counterpart Vardan Oskanyan with Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Ivanov, and then continued by the meetings with the
Co-Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group. Then, the mediators and the
Foreign Ministers held common “long and wide discussions”. “During
the meetings, all the issues that are at the table of negotiations
now were in the limelight of the discussion. “New approaches” were
considered as well”, told Mr. Taghizadeh.
As results of the discussions, it was decided to hold the next
meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in
Paris on October 24, 2006.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Zaman Online, Turkey
Oct 6 2006
Turkish Candidate Forced to Recognize Alleged Armenian Genocide
By Basri Dogan, Cihan News Agency, Amsterdam
Friday, October 06, 2006
zaman.com
Nebahat Albayrak, in second position on the list of the main opposition
Labour Party (PvdA) candidates, has recognized the so-called Armenian
genocide.
After the main Dutch parties removed three Turkish candidates from
their electoral lists, Albayrak said she backed the parliamentary
motion describing the deaths as genocide, in an interview with the
analysis magazine HP/De Tijd, adding that the form of its occurrence
needs to be investigated.
Albayrak, who has served in the parliament since 1998, in her previous
statements said the jurists would determine the use of “genocide”
in response to the Armenian Diaspora’s claims, and avoided using the
definition in her interviews.
The media strongly criticized Albayrak for being indecisive.
Meanwhile, Turkish candidates Ayhan Tonca , Osman Elmaci (CDA)
and Erdinc Sacan (PvdA) were removed from the election list for the
general elections.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress