GOING UP IN SMOKE?
By Times Team
Kenya Times, Kenya
Nov 8 2006
Security: Mp Laments Insecurity Has Reached Unprecedented Levels,
Cites Incidents Ranging From Carjackings, Raids To Ethnic Clashes
THE Government was yesterday put on notice over rampant insecurity
amid claims that the controversial Armenian brothers Artur Margaryan
and Sargarsyan could be back in the country.
Ndhiwa MP Jodhua Orwa Ojodeh (Narc) raised the issue in parliament,
demanding that Internal Security and Provincial Administration minister
John Michuki provides comprehensive statement on what the government
was doing to address insecurity in the country and to either confirm
or deny that the Armenian brothers are in the country.
The MP gave a chronology of unabated criminal incidents in the country
that included the Mathare flare-up as well as the recent raid on
Michuki’s Kangema home that also left a chief shot dead and sought
to know what the Government was doing about them.
Ojodeh raised the question parliament only hours after four armed
gangsters casually walked into Mombasa’s Moi Avenue Post Bank branch
and walked away with Sh 7.5 million.
He did not, however, give any more details regarding the Artur brothers
who were deported from the country in June after causing a security
scare at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA). The two had
drawn a gun to force into the country a passenger and luggage without
being inspected.
Mr. Michuki was not in the House, but his assistant Kingi Kahindi
promised to issue a statement later.
Speaker Francis Ole Kaparo who was in the Chair concurred with the
MP that the issue being raised was of grave concern and asked the
government to take the matter seriously.
Mr Michuki is under pressure following a sharp upsurge in incidents of
insecurity in the recent past with flare ups in Mathare, Kuresoi and
Kuria-Transmara border as well as spiralling cases of, bank robberies
and car-jackings.
In Mathare’s case, six people were killed on Monday night while
thousands were left homeless as bloody violence continued to
escalate. Police reports indicate that three of the people were hacked
to death during the violence while three others were shot dead by
intervening officers.
Even as Nairobi Provincial Commissioner Joseph Waweru slapped a 7.00
pm to 7.00 am curfew on Mathare residents, hundreds of them were by
yesterday evening fleeing their homes in fear of reprisal attacks by
members of outlawed gangs Mungiki and Taliban gangs, whom the police
yesterday attributed the violence to.
A contingent of General Service Unit (GSU) was last evening dispatched
to the sprawling slums as the regular and administration police
officers who had been stationed there were withdrawn following
accusation of alleged complicity.
In Kuresoi, latest reports say police gunned down four suspected
arsonists as renewed wave of ethnic skirmishes entered its fourth
day in the troubled division of Nakuru District, bringing to eight,
the number of lives so far lost since Sunday.
According to the Rift Valley Provincial Police Officer, Everret Wasige,
the four were caught up with by security personnel torching houses at
Gacharage Farm while armed with bows, poisoned arrows and pangas which
they allegedly used to attack the police when challenged to surrender.
Two weeks ago, assistant minister, Dr Wilfred Machage, escaped death
by a whisker around the same area when an arrow aimed at him hit a
wallet on his chest pocket leaving him with only minor bruise.
According to reports, two of the dead men involved in the Mathare
flare-up were killed by suspected members of the outlawed Mungiki
sect while the others were shot dead by police who found them wielding
panga’s and other crude weapons.
Besides these incidents, the rate of car-jackings and theft in the
city and the country in general have risen sharply with the latest
being the weekend theft at City Hall in which the Deputy Mayor’s
chain was stolen, the attempted car-jacking and shooting at a car
being driven by Kisumu Rural’s MP Prof Anyang Nyong’o’s wife Dorothy
and the raid in Michuki’s home.
In Parliament, Ojodeh expressed grave concerns over the contradicting
reports attributed to the Police Commissioner Ali and Mr Michuki
after the attack at the minister’s home.
“Was the raid at Michuki’s home stage managed?”, he posed. “Police
Commissioner says no raid, but Michuki confirms the attack in his
home”.
“In 1975 before former MP J.M Kariuki was murdered, there were planned
bomb attacks at OTC bus stage and Norfolk Hotel. Are Kenyans safe or
is there planned assassination of prominent persons?,” he questioned.
The MP cited other insecurity incidents among them the mayhem in
Kibera three weeks ago.
In Mathare yesterday, a vehicle belonging to one of the residents and
a private clinic operated by an International NGO were set ablaze by
irate mob. Upendo clinic and the pick up car were burnt yesterday in
the morning.
According to the residents, the violence which begun on Sunday has
spread to neighbouring villages in the slum due to alleged incitement
by unnamed politicians and police laxity to patrol the affected
villages at night.
They said the initial conflict revolved around Mungiki adherents and
traders of illegal brew “Chang’aa” over payment of bribes.
Yesterday, Nairobi Provincial Police Officer King’ori Mwangi led a
contingent of administration and regular police officers in the area
to diffuse tension. It was, however, evident that irate residents
were uncomfortable with police presence, accusing them of patrolling
the slums during the day and deserting then at night when the enemies
attack.
Several people have been injured in the skirmishes that begun on Sunday
when a group of chang’aa traders clashed with Mungiki adherents. The
traders accused sect members of demanding at least Sh100 to operate
the illegal trade.
The skirmishes have also sucked in police officers in the area who
are accused of offering protection to alleged known gang members.
Over 200 houses have been reduced to ashes since Sunday as a number
of shops and houses were looted during the night violence.

PRIME MINISTER MEETS WITH HIS JORDANIAN COUNTERPART
AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
After Azerbaijan’s Prime Minister Artur Rasizade and visiting Prime
Minister and Defense Minister of Jordan Marouf al-Bakhit met behind
closed doors, the meeting continued in the presence of the two
countries’ delegations.
Mr. Rasizade said he welcomes the level of political cooperation
between the two countries.
He expressed gratitude to Jordan’s Government for supporting Azerbaijan
within various international organizations.
The Premier also spoke of Azerbaijan’s economic progress, adding his
country is the initiator of the global energy and transport projects
in the region.
Artur Rasizade also spoke of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan’s efforts towards finding a peaceful
solution to the dispute.
Jordanian Premier Marouf al-Bakhit stressed the importance of enhancing
the bilateral economic ties, adding establishment of inter-departmental
commissions will contribute to this.
The meeting ended with the signing of a number of interparliamentary
agreements, including ones on economy and tourism.

CO-CHAIRS HAVE NO AGREEMENT ON NAGORNO KARABAKH REFERENDUM
Today, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
“We have no agreement on Nagorno Karabakh referendum, we will have
discussions on the eve of the Azerbaijani and Armenian ministers’
meeting on November 14 in Brussels and determine our position on the
referendum,” said OSCE Minsk Group co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov.
The referendum on Constitution will be held in Nagorno Karabakh on
December 10. There is a special paragraph in the constitution to be
accepted by referendum on separatist Nagorno Karabakh regime.
Foreign Ministry Press and Information Policy Department Tahir
Tagizadeh told the APA world community and OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
should estimate Nagorno Karabakh puppet regime unambiguously. “For
Azerbaijan everything is clear – these actions are realized by illegal
regime, contradicts the Azerbaijani Constitution and international
legislative norms and can not influence peace negotiations as to its
features,” he told APA.
The diplomat considers that the steps made by illegitimate regime
can not achieve legal results.
URL:

PRESIDENT OF KAZAKHSTAN CALLS KAZAKHSTANI BUSINESS TO “HEAD FOR ARMENIA”
Regnum, Russia
Nov 7 2006
President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and president of Armenia
Robert Kocharyan took part in a business forum in Astana, REGNUM
correspondent reports.
Kocharyan who is staying in Kazakhstan with a two-day official visit,
told the audience that economically speaking, Armenia and Kazakhstan
are not competitors, thus, the president believes, the business has all
grounds to develop mutually beneficial cooperation. The Armenian leader
said that the both countries’ economies are complementary regarding
each other. “Our countries maintain great bilateral relations, free
of any controversial and sensitive issues,” Kocharyan said. He says
that the IT, banking, and agricultural spheres, as well as ore mining
and metallurgical industries may be attractive for the Kazakhstan’s
business.
Nazarbayev called Kazakhstani business circles to more actively explore
the new opportunities. “I call our companies – as the business requires
– to head to Armenia, to their own and everybody’s benefit, learn
the situation and invest in Armenian economy, using legislation and
chance.” The Kazakhstani leader pointed that for the 15 years of its
independence, Kazakhstan has invested $18bn in various international
projects. In the Caucasus, Georgia has been lately receiving most
investments.
Kocharyan said that both countries until recently “never seriously
worked on” the issue of active development of bilateral business
contacts. Nazarbayev replied that the present friendly relations
between Kazakhstan and Armenia and his personal friendship with
president Kocharyan will help to develop the business partnership.

ARMENIA: SOCIALISM IN ONE VILLAGE
Marianna Grigoryan
EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 8 2006
“Long Live Communism!,” “Long Live Socialism!,” “Long Live the Great
October Revolution!” In the Armenian village of Lernamerdz, about 40
kilometers from Yerevan, communism and its triumphant proclamations
are not a dim recollection. They are a way of life.
In Soviet times, there were reportedly only seven communists in
Lernamerdz, a hamlet of over 500 residents. But the situation changed
after Armenia gained independence in 1991, and began to dismantle
monuments to communist leaders, villagers say.
Amidst the economic hardships and political uncertainties of
independence, Lernamerdz Communist Party Secretary Samvel Mirzoyan
says, the village began to see socialism as their sole support.
“They say the country has become independent, but from what?”
commented villager Azat Barseghyan. “Once we were dependent on
Russia, and lived well… [T]oday we depend on the whole world and
are struggling to survive.”
“The example of Lernamerdz is a good illustration of what great
results people’s unity and rallying around a common idea can bring,”
said Armenian Communist Party First Secretary Ruben Tovmasyan. “The
powerful ideology of socialism cannot die. It can retreat for a while,
but it is certain to come back and triumph.” Communist Party membership
in Armenia currently stands at about 18,000 members; the party has
no seats in parliament.
The lack of political muscle does little to dissuade these villagers,
though. Nearly 15 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, the first
toast at birthday and wedding parties here is in honor of Vladimir
Lenin. Unlike elsewhere in Armenia, schoolchildren are familiar with
communist holidays, and can recite by heart poetry dedicated to the
now much-maligned leader of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution.
And as in Soviet times, November 7, the anniversary of that
revolution, remains cause for official celebration, with Communist
Party representatives from nearby towns and the party’s national
leadership on hand to congratulate villagers.
“Our leader is with us, hurrah!” ring out the cries of villagers
applauding a silvery two-ton statue of Lenin that stands in the center
of the village. The monument, adorned with a red banner that proclaims
“Proletarians of All Countries, Unite!,” arrived only in 1997. It is
repaired every year to maintain its appearance.
The central government’s enthusiasm for the festivities runs thin,
however. Villagers told EurasiaNet that the government had changed
the principal of the Lernamerdz school and forbidden children to
come to school in red scarves, or to take part in the November 7
celebration. But some still attended.
“The spirit of communism is in this village,” commented Sofik
Manukyan, second secretary of the Echmiadzin city branch of the
Armenian Communist Party.
Even so, that “spirit” has so far done little to improve living
conditions for village inhabitants. Unemployment still looms large.
Some 150 people have left Lernamerdz in the past few years, said
villager Barseghyan. Twenty-three houses have had their doors locked
for years, he added.
Nonetheless, optimism for a better life persists. It is all just a
matter of time, villagers say.
“When communism returns to Armenia, people will lead a happy life,”
concluded 41-year-old Rostam Avdalyan. “Everyone will be happy then
and the sun will shine brightly.”
Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for the Armenianow.com
weekly in Yerevan. Onnik Krikorian is a freelance journalist and
photographer from the United Kingdom based in the Republic of
Armenia. He works for a variety of publications and international
organizations.

OPPOSITION BLASTS RECENT ECONOMIC DEALS WITH RUSSIA
By Anna Saghabalian
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Nov 7 2006
Several opposition members have criticized the Armenian authorities
for continuing to yield the country’s economic potential to Russia
in a bid to secure its favors during the upcoming elections.
Aram Manukian, a senior member of Armenia’s former ruling Armenian
National Movement (HHSh) party, charged that the authorities are
trying to preserve their illegitimate power by selling out the nation’s
economic facilities.
In particular, he criticized the authorities for their recent energy
deals that would give Russia’s state-run Gazprom monopoly a commanding
share in Armenia’s natural gas distribution network and, most probably,
the incoming gas pipeline from Iran.
“These steps are taken ahead of the national elections so that the
Russian scenario works in the country once again,” Manukian said.
“There are plenty of actors who would like to play the Russian scenario
in Armenia.”
The leader of the Democratic Part of Armenia Aram Sarkisian also
sees political reasons behind the sellout of strategically important
economic facilities to Russia. He reminded the 2003 elections when
unlike their western colleagues the CIS observer mission did not
criticize the authorities for the poor conduct of the elections.
Member of parliament from the ruling Republican Party Armen Ashotian
brushed aside the opposition accusations.
“The harshest criticism of the 2003 elections came from European and
U.S. structures and it would be logical to try to appease them rather
than Russia,” he said.

EXPORTERS FEAR FURTHER DRAM UPSURGE
By Shake Avoyan
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Nov 7 2006
A manager of Armenia’s leading diamond exporting company fears a
further appreciation of the national currency may leave producers
oriented for foreign markets counting their losses.
Head of the British-registered Diamond Company of Armenia and President
of the International Association of Armenian Jewelers Gagik Abrahamian
told the media at the Hayeli (Mirror) club on Tuesday that if the
situation continues it may cause many exporting businesses to wind
up their operations altogether.
Abrahamian, who is brother of influential President of the Union
of Armenians of Russia Ara Abrahamian, said exporting companies in
Armenia do not yet work at a loss, but he said their profits have
considerably reduced.
“I suggest temporarily fixing the dram’s exchange rate to the dollar
or the euro to curb its further appreciation. It should be fixed
for a certain period of time allowing for a certain percentage of
fluctuation of course,” Abrahamian said, describing the exchange rate
of some 400 drams per U.S. dollar as quite acceptable.
On the whole agreeing with Abrahamian, the owner of the Mika Limited
Company, wealthy businessman Mikael Baghdasarov thinks, however, that
the appreciation of the Armenian currency will have a long-term benefit
for the economy, although he said as a cement producer he has suffered
losses. “The timing for the strengthening of the dram has been chosen
correctly, because all world prices are high, they have never been so
higher before and are likely to start to fall in the near future. If
international prices go down and the dram in Armenia gains in value,
the losses will be greater, as now prices abroad compensate the losses
incurred because of the exchange rate,” he explained.
Baghdasarov, a fuel tycoon believed to have super profits from the
favorable situation with the dram/dollar exchange rate, says nothing
should be changed in the Central Bank policy. “Only the dollar fall
should be made slower,” he said.
The Armenian dram has gained more than 40 percent in value against
the U.S. dollar since December 2003 and its appreciation is hurting
domestic manufacturers and many people dependent on cash remittances
from their relatives working abroad.
The authorities strongly deny any exchange rate manipulation. The
Central Bank ascribes the upsurge primarily to recent years’ increase
in hard currency wired home by hundreds of thousands of Armenians
living and working abroad. Another explanation is the recently observed
construction boom in the country that attracts millions of dollars
from abroad invested in property.
Last month Suren Bekirski, director of the export-oriented textile
company Tosp, told RFE/RL that as an exporter their company loses
twice as much as it gains marketing its products locally.
“If things go on like this, we will last for only a few more months,”
he said.

EU ROLLS OUT RED CARPET FOR OIL-RICH AZERBAIJAN
By Andrew Rettman
EUObserver, Belgium
Nov 7 2006
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – The EU rolled out the red carpet treatment for
Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev in Brussels on Tuesday (6 November)
for the signing of a new energy pact, with European leaders predicting
that increased trade will help raise human rights standards in Baku.
“We are creating a democratic society with strong rule of law and
human rights as well as a strong economy,” president Aliyev said.
“For us this [EU cooperation] is an opportunity in the coming years
to bring criteria in Azerbaijan very close to those in Europe. We
share the same values.”
The South Caucasus state has some 7 billion barrels of oil reserves
and sits on a key route to potential EU imports of natural gas from
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, but Mr Aliyev’s 2005 election fell short
of OSCE norms while NGO Human Rights Watch remains “very worried”
about use of torture in Baku.
Speaking on the murder of prominent anti-establishment journalist
Elmar Huseynov – shot dead outside his apartment in March 2005 – the
president blamed subversive forces keen to “destabilise” Azerbaijan
while saying that unnamed suspects are “very difficult to find”
as they have fled the country.
“Let us not forget that Azerbaijan has never had a democratic state as
we consider it in the EU,” European Commission president Jose Manuel
Barroso stated. “This [pact] is not just about energy…what we are
doing is exactly the way to promote democracy and the rule of law.”
Mr Barroso shook Mr Aliyev’s hand for the cameras and placed an
arm round the president’s back in a customary gesture of warmth,
but the commission president gazed around the ceiling in a tense,
unsmiling way during his guest’s “we share the same values” speech.
“Oh I don’t know, maybe it was a question of his metabolism on
the day,” an EU official later remarked. “We have our worries here
about Mr Aliyev’s government, but Mr Barroso is too professional to
communicate anything by body language.”
New energy pact Tuesday’s “Strategic Partnership” on energy calls for
“gradual convergence with the EU’s internal energy market, aiming
ultimately at its integration” as well as “increased transit of oil”
and “possible transit of natural gas” from the Caspian Sea basin via
Azerbaijan to the EU.
It mentions protecting existing EU oil flows via the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, but does not contain any explicit Azeri
commitment to more sensitive EU plans to import gas from the Caspian
region via the “Nabucco” or “Trans-Caspian” pipeline projects that
would bypass Russia.
The text “emphasises” EU support for the “territorial integrity”
of Azerbaijan “with a view of elimination of threats [to] European
energy security” at a time when Baku is threatening to use a military
solution to its breakaway southwestern region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
EU principles Mr Aliyev also received a warm welcome from Europe’s
top diplomat Javier Solana and energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs
on Tuesday, with the EU set to sign a more political “Action Plan”
for future integration with Azerbaijan in mid-November.
Meanwhile, Brussels is getting ready to drop most of its human
rights-related sanctions against Uzbekistan and to welcome Kazakhstan’s
controversial president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, to the EU capital
in December.
“We are extremely worried by what we are seeing in the EU at
present,” Human Rights Watch analyst Veronika Leila Szente Goldston
told EUobserver. “They are losing credibility every day in terms of
building a principled foreign policy in Central Asia.”

TURKEY MAY RELAX FREE SPEECH LIMITS
By Dan Bilefsky
New York Times
International Herald Tribune
Nov 7 2006
ISTANBUL Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled that he is
prepared to amend a law limiting free speech, in an apparent 11th-hour
attempt to prevent a crisis with the European Union.
The surprise move Sunday by Erdogan came just three days before
the European Commission is expected to publish a report criticizing
Turkey for sluggishness on reforms necessary if it wants to join the
25-member bloc.
“The move looks desperate,” said Ilker Domac, a Turkish economist.
“It shows how badly things are going with Turkey’s EU membership
prospects.”
Talks with the EU have reached an impasse that could result in the
suspension of the country’s EU membership talks, some Turks fear.
Such a move would hobble a key European and American ally in an
unstable region and would risk slowing the pace of its political and
economic reforms.
The commission, the EU executive branch, has been particularly
concerned by Article 301 of the Turkish penal code, which makes
insulting Turkishness a crime. The law attracted global criticism
earlier this year when the Turkish writer Orhan Pamuk, who was awarded
the 2006 Nobel Prize in Literature, was put on trial for telling a
Swiss newspaper that more than a million Armenians were massacred by
Ottoman Turks during World War I. The case was later dismissed.
In an apparent attempt to gain favor with the European Union before
the commission’s report is released Wednesday, Erdogan signaled that
his party, Justice and Development, might be willing to amend the law.
“We are studying several options for how we can handle Article 301 in
harmony with the spirit of the reforms,” he said without elaborating.
Turkish analysts said this would likely entail narrowing the legal
definition of what constitutes an insult to Turkishness and amending
the law to make it compatible with the European Court of Human Rights.
Erdogan, who faces strong pressure from nationalists not to change
the law, all but ruled out doing so last week. But Turkish officials
said he had tempered his resistance after furious lobbying by human
rights groups, trade unions and the business community, which fear
that a break in EU membership talks would undermine Turkey’s stability.
EU officials cautiously welcomed the move, but warned that Turkey’s
membership bid still faced enormous obstacles, in particular a
simmering dispute over Cyprus that shows little sign of resolution.
“This is a positive signal, but there are other big hurdles that still
need to be overcome,” said Joost Lagendijk, the chairman of the Turkey
delegation in the European Parliament and a member of the Green group.
Turkey has said it will not open its ports to ships from Cyprus,
an EU member, until the European Union lifts trade restrictions
against Turkish Cypriots in northern Cyprus, which is recognized
internationally by Ankara alone. The Cyprus impasse has proved so
intractable that last week Finland, which holds the Union’s rotating
presidency, canceled talks because the parties refused to be in the
same room.

AZERBAIJAN: EU TAKING NOTE OF BAKU’S STRENGTH
By Ahto Lobjakas
Radio Free Europe, Czech Rep.
Nov 7 2006
Aliyev (left) is greeted by EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana in
Brussels today
BRUSSELS, November 7, 2006 (RFE/RL) — A visit to EU headquarters by
a confident Azerbaijani president on November 7 marked a new stage
in the relationship between the two sides.
EU officials in Brussels were left clearly impressed by President
Ilham Aliyev’s record — even if they do stress it is marred by
democratic shortcomings.
Azerbaijan owes much of the respect it is winning in the EU to its
huge oil and gas deposits — but not all of it.
The only blemish on the EU-Azerbaijani relationship remains Baku’s
conspicuously weak democratic record.It is also increasingly seen
in Brussels as a rare example regional example of a country able to
put its strengths to good use. Its economy is growing at what one EU
official today described as a “phenomenal rate.”
Balanced Approach
The country has a good relationship with Russia, but is seeking to
establish a balance by securing good ties with the EU and the United
States. Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
remains a problem, but does not appear to hinder its foreign-policy
objectives.
This was the backdrop to EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana’s
description of Azerbaijan as an “important country in an important
region” after his meeting today in Brussels with the country’s
president, Ilham Aliyev.
“We want very much to deepen our bilateral relationship with
Azerbaijan, not only in the field of energy — which is important.
But Azerbaijan is not only a producer of energy, it’s an important
country [in] an important region, with which we want to have a deep
relationship.” Solana said. “The EU is to sign European Neighborhood
Policy “action plans” with Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia next week
(November 14). The “action plans” set out the priorities for the
countries’ cooperation with the EU and will open, in Solana’s words,
“a new era” in EU-South Caucasus relations.
However, Azerbaijan increasingly stands out in the region. It alone has
been able to give up EU financial aid, which totaled some 400 million
euros before a steep hike in energy revenues made it redundant. Baku
also avoids controversy by speaking in general terms of its wish to
pursue “Euro-Atlantic” integration, while refraining from demanding
EU or NATO membership.
Position Of Strength
As one EU official noted today, Azerbaijan is also able to speak with
Russia from a position of strength without jeopardizing good-neighborly
relations. At the same time, it manages to get along with Georgia at
a time when that country’s relationship with Russia has hit a new low.
Aliyev, who signed a broad energy accord with the European Union today,
was careful to distance himself from more radical voices seeking to
diminish Russia’s dominant role as an EU energy supplier.
The Azerbaijani president promised oil and gas, but indicated that
Baku’s hand will not be forced regarding the selection of transit
routes.
“We never considered our country as any kind of alternative to any
other country [regarding energy supplies],” Aliyev said. “We just did
our job, did what was right for the country, [right] for the region.
And our energy infrastructure today allows us to transport large
volumes of oil and gas to European and international markets.”
Azerbaijan is currently exporting oil via Russia and Georgia, and gas
through Georgia. Aliyev today expressed interest in the development
of a Ukrainian-Polish oil pipeline. But along with Russian and Kazakh
authorities he also appeared to link deliveries to a wish to acquire
a stake in European processing facilities and distribution networks.
Not In The Pipeline
Hopes for direct gas links from the Caspian Sea region to the European
Union, on the other hand, appear to be fading. An EU official told
RFE/RL today that the so-called Nabucco pipeline — recently billed
as a major alternative to Russian supplies by transiting gas to
Southeastern Europe via Turkey — was not discussed at the meeting
with Aliyev.
In another bad sign for the future of the alternative pipeline,
Kazakh Foreign Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev last month told the
European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee that the construction
of a gas link between his country to Azerbaijan via the Caspian Sea
appears increasingly unlikely.Toqaev suggested that Kazakhstan is
content with continuing to use Russian transit facilities.
Another issue on which the EU is keen to cooperate with Azerbaijan is
neighboring Iran. While the EU is seeking to thwart what it fears
are Teheran’s ambitions to build nuclear weapons, Azerbaijan is
seeking backing for its efforts to improve the standing of the up
to 30 million Azeris living in Iran. Aliyev told EU officials today
that Baku is unhappy that the Azeri language is banned from schools
and the media in Iran.
Sore Spot
The only blemish on the EU-Azerbaijani relationship remains Baku’s
conspicuously weak democratic record. Both Solana and the president
of the European Commission, Jose-Manuel Barroso, said after their
respective meetings with Aliyev that they had raised the issue.
But Barroso also highlighted extenuating factors, praising Azerbaijan’s
relative successes. “Let’s not forget that Azerbaijan never had a
democratic state as we consider it in the European Union,” he said. “So
Azerbaijan is making efforts [toward] economic and political reform.”
Barroso also appeared to suggest that Baku is entitled to some sympathy
and understanding owing to its location.
“Let me tell you that what we are doing is exactly the way to promote
democracy and the rule of law in Azerbaijan,” Barroso said. “Today
in the meeting I raised also these issues with the [Azerbaijani]
President Aliyev, and he gave me his analysis and his assessment of
the situation; namely, the situation of a country that is in a very
peculiar region.”
Promises Of Reforms
Aliyev himself repeatedly said that a “strong” political system is
needed for a “strong” economy. He also said Azerbaijan and the EU hold
“shared values,” and promised political and democratic reforms.
However, in a sign that the EU considers such difficulties to be
relatively minor at this stage, foreign-policy chief Solana announced
after meeting with Aliyev that he will soon be visiting Baku.