EXPERTS: AZERBAIJAN CAN ENSURE ITS FULL ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
Regnum, Russia
Nov 15 2006
Azerbaijan can ensure its full energy independence. That’s what most of
the experts said during the roundtable on Azerbaijan’s energy security
held in Baku last week. A REGNUM correspondent reports that the event,
organized with the support of the Azerbaijani Office of the Russian
Development Foundation (AORDF) “Caucasian Democracy Institute,” was
attended by independent experts from Russia Ilya Zaslavsky, Alexander
Karavayev, Georgy Nozadze, Azerbaijani MPs Agabek Askerov, Siyavush
Novruzov, Mubariz Gurbanly, Fazil Gazanfaroglu, political experts
Rasim Musabekov, Zardusht Alizade, Mubariz Ahmedoglu, Arif Yunusov,
Ilgar Mamedov, Leyla Aliyeva, experts Ilham Shabanov, Allay Ahmedov,
historian Valida Mustafayeva.
The event was opened by the head of the AORDF Rauf Gasanov.
The participants stressed that Azerbaijan’s energy potential is
steadily growing, and, already today, the country can be regarded as
a self-sufficient energy producer and an authoritative fuel exporter
in the region.
The Russian experts focused on the political, economic, ecological,
social and technical aspects of the gas supplies in Azerbaijan and
Russia. Alexander Karavayev approached energy security problems
geo-politically. He said that Azerbaijan has resolved these problems
due to own resources and complementary policy and, especially, due
to the launch of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and the
gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum (BTE). Today, the Azerbaijani gas
consumers – unlike those in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and
Armenia – are almost independent from Russia’s gas policy. Karavayev
noted that not only the CIS countries but also many people in
Russia are concerned that, sometimes, Gazprom rises its gas tariffs
quite unreasonably. Karavayev wonders if Russia’s gas tariffs are
economically conditioned – why exactly $110 or $130 and not $50 or,
say, $200?
In fact, the “gas stick” has not so far helped Russia to attain any
of its political goals, except for merely economic profit. On the
contrary, the last rise in the Russian gas tariff has pushed Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova to drift even farther to the west and has caused
strong displeasure in Armenia, who has already found alternative
sources of gas. Karavayev believes that Moscow’s new, better-balanced
tariff policy is just a matter of time. Returning to Azerbaijan’s
energy security, Karavayev said that Azerbaijan effectively employs
its equidistant situation from all significant blocs in the CIS
territory and, at the same time, declares western orientation. All the
subjects of inter-action in the post-Soviet area, including Russia,
are influenced by the US policy. And the internal stability of each
of them strongly depends on their ability to successfully maneuver
under this influence. Azerbaijan also considers this influence but
is realistic about its limits.
Similar models of state administration have brought Russia and
Azerbaijan closer to each other. Russian-Azerbaijani relations have
significantly improved since Jan 2001, when the Russian President paid
a visit to Baku. At the same time, unlike Russia’s other CIS partners,
Azerbaijan is not a member to any structural organizations.
After returning into the CIS (one of the first decisions of Heydar
Aliyev), the Azerbaijani authorities stayed neutral towards other
integration structures (CES, EurAsEC). Azerbaijan cannot be a member
to the CSTO because of Armenia’s membership therein. Though involved
in some alternative unions, Azerbaijan is not very active there. The
role of GUAM’s energy locomotive is possible but hardly real for
Azerbaijan as its key export projects are aimed at markets outside
GUAM. The active attempts of the Ukrainian diplomacy to add Azerbaijani
oil to the Russian supplies have proved to be just illusions.
Exactly in the same way the Saakashvili administration has failed to
change the parameters of the Baku-Erzerum contract. Georgia’s quota
in the project has been left unchanged – 5% of potential transit.
Karavayev noted that during the 1st Summit (Dec 1 2005) of the new
promising anti-Russian bloc “Commonwealth of Democratic Choice”
(CDC), Azerbaijan was represented only on a FM level. Obviously,
small as it is, Azerbaijan is quite successfully balancing between
different vectors. In conclusion, Karavayev stressed that, unlike
Russia, Azerbaijan has decided to invest the money of its Oil Fund
in the economy and the social sector. According to the presidential
decree “On the Long-Term Strategy for Oil and Gas Income Management,”
the Azerbaijani Government allocates the money for the construction
and restoration of roads, schools and hospitals, the purchase of
energy equipment and other crucial projects. In Russia they believe –
without much reason – that such a policy may lead to high inflation.
Expert Ilya Zaslavsky noted that there are mutually exclusive views of
the export appeal of the Azerbaijani fuel. He reminded the audience
that during his last visit to Baku the Romanian President said:
“I think that Azerbaijan can be highly competitive on the European
markets.” On the other hand, Turkey is slow to buy the Azerbaijani
gas. Zaslavsky gave some statistics: the total length of the BTE from
Azerbaijan till the Georgian-Turkish border is 690 km (442 km via
Azerbaijan and 248 via Georgia). The length of the Turkish “corridor”
is 280 km. Experts say that Azerbaijan needs as much as 100mln c m
of gas to fill the whole pipe. Even though the Azerbaijani gas has
already reached Erzerum, Turkey is falling behind in laying its section
of the pipe and will finish it no earlier than by the end of this year.
Presently, in order to fill the BTE Azerbaijan uses the gas extracted
from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli deposit by AIOC and BP. In the third
quarter of 2006 Azerbaijan will start injecting gas from the Shah
Deniz deposit, where a consortium of western companies and their
partners, particularly, Lukoil, have built a unique deep-water
platform – a project costing a total of $1.3bln. The initial
resources of Shah Deniz are estimated at 178bln c m of gas and
34mln tons of gas condensate, while the total ones – at 1trl c m, of
which 600bln c m are recoverable resources. This is the biggest gas
condensate deposit in Azerbaijan. The BTE can transfer up to 30bln
c m a year. Initially, it will export 2.2bln c m a year and later
8.5bln-9bln c m a year. The full rate extraction will be started at
the second stage – in 2010-2012.
Zaslavsky pointed out that even though the world gas prices have
been steadily growing in the last decades, they may slump one day and
Azerbaijan may prove to be quite unprepared for that, just as it is
unprepared today to be fully independent from Russia in energy. The
Azerbaijani authorities will hardly be able to ensure their full energy
independence in the near future and will remain seriously dependent on
Russia and its behavior on the international fuel markets for quite a
long time. Consequently, Azerbaijan will have to consider this factor
in its foreign policy.
Rasim Musabekov disagreed with Zaslavsky. He thinks that the
influence of the political factor on the fuel price policy is
decreasing. Healthy market relations make the supplier and the consumer
equally responsible. The energy security of suppliers and consumers is
inter-dependent and inter-related and cannot be considered irrespective
of reality.
On the other hand, for each energy market participant reality is
different and, consequently, different is the degree of security. For
example, even though Azerbaijan is much more secure in energy than
Georgia and Armenia are, it buys from Russia twice as much gas as they
do. Azerbaijan may safely stop buying Russian gas as it has its own
energy sources and a ramified pipeline network (Baku-Novorossiysk,
Baku-Supsa and Iranian branch to Nakhichevan).
This all will allow Azerbaijan to become self-sufficient already
next year.
Musabekov said that next year Georgia and Turkey will substantially
raise their energy security. Today, Turkey is in a favorable situation:
it has three gas pipes from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan may sell its gas for just $120-130, which may influence
the prices of the Russian and Iranian gas. Besides, Turkey has good
capacities for gas transit to Europe. As regards Azerbaijan, the only
threat to its energy security is a possible pipeline damage caused
by acts of sabotage.
Ilgar Mamedov agreed that Azerbaijan is sufficiently secure in terms
of energy. He noted that the country is very much interested in the
sharp rise in the gas prices. The last rise by Russia has strongly
aggravated its relations with Armenia. The Armenian mass media and
public appeared with lots of anti-Russian statements and pro-western
slogans. As a result, Armenia has turned its face towards Iran. One
more rise will completely spoil Armenian-Russian relations, and
Armenia will start searching for ways-out of this situation, while
Azerbaijan will be able to turn it into own advantage “by returning
its occupied territories and, certainly, Nagorno Karabakh.”
The Russian experts pointed to Russia’s gas problem. Karavayev said
that the further rise in the Russian gas prices will not give Russia
any dividends. Each consumer country has the limit beyond which it
will refuse to buy gas. The present tariff policy, particularly,
the mechanism preventing Kazakhstan from supplying gas via Russia to
Europe, is incorrect and unpromising. Gazprom’s monopoly may create
numerous problems in Russia. “All we know about our real gas reserves
is what Gazprom tells us. Its further price policy is also a closed
book to us,” Karavayev said.
Zaslavsky pointed out that some Azerbaijan’s regions are short of gas,
while the Azerbaijani authorities are actively exporting gas abroad. He
noted that the laying of pipelines is a very expensive business, today,
but small territory allows Azerbaijan to do it with much less expenses.
Allay Ahmedov noted that Azerbaijan’s energy security may be annulled
by military factors – such as a new Karabakh war or possible US
campaign against Iran.
Ilham Shabanov reminded the audience that the price of the gas Turkey
receives from Russia is $262 and from Iran – $250, while Azerbaijan
is ready to sell its gas to Turkey for only $120. So, it is very
strange that Turkey is delaying the building of its section of the
BTE and has refused to buy Azerbaijani gas in the coming half-year.
The possible reason might be Russia’s offer to undertake part of
Turkey’s expenses and technical efforts to lay gas pipelines to Italy
and Israel – something that will make Turkey one of the biggest energy
knots in the region. One more factor is that a Russian-Turkish JV is
planning to build a huge gas storage in southern Turkey near Lake Tuz
for ensuring the stability of Russian gas supplies to Europe from the
south. This project is of strategic importance for Russia and fully
serves the interests of Turkey.
Shabanov noted that by the end of this year Azerbaijan will import
4.5bln c m of gas from Russia. However, it will extract more than that
in 2007. “So, why should we buy Russian gas?” The answer is in the
politics: Azerbaijan buys Russian gas because it wants to preserve
friendly relations with that country. Concerning the domestic gas
supply in Azerbaijan, Shabanov said that, in the Soviet times, 83%
of the country had gas, which was the highest index in Europe. After
the USSR collapse, this figure slumped, and only recently the AzeriGaz
managed to raise it to 45%-46%.
Mubariz Ahmedoglu welcomed the idea of roundtable and stressed that
it is very important to discuss the problem of unequal electricity
exchange between Russia and Azerbaijan, particularly, the fact
that Russia overprices its electricity for Azerbaijan. “We sell our
electricity to the Russians for 2 US cents per 1 KWh, but buy it from
them for 4 US cents,” Ahmedoglu said. Still, he believes that the
sides will equalize the situation. He noted that, today, even the
military circles in Russia see that they can no longer use pressure
and need to establish and develop mutually beneficial cooperation
with their neighbors. Azerbaijan’s last years’ efforts to ensure its
energy security have helped Turkey to become a big transit player. As
regards Armenia, it is in quite a difficult situation: Iran will not
close its eyes to the fact that it is going to sell to Russia the
gas pipeline built by Iranian specialists for Iranian money.
Zardusht Alizade noted that new times dictate new relations. In the
last 15 years Russia has seen that its “special” relations with the
post-Soviet republics lead to huge economic losses and affect the
living conditions of its own citizens. Almost all Russia has done
recently shows that that country is becoming more pragmatic and is
seeking to have normal market relations with its neighbors, like
everybody in the world has.
Arif Yunusov said that every time he is surprised to hear people
talking about the economic profit of one or another project as,
in all of them, political interests are prevalent and decisive. He
noted that it would be much cheaper for Azerbaijan to lay its oil
and gas pipelines to Turkey not via Georgia but via Iran. However,
this might cause some problems in the future and Washington’s strong
displeasure at present. As regards Russia, Yunusov thinks that Moscow
has no clear energy policy. Moscow is in euphoria over the last years’
rise in the world fuel prices. If one can understand Russia when
it punishes Ukraine, it is hard to understand it in the story with
Georgia as its actions hit Armenia too. Russia’s policy on Baku is
also contradictory. “I always say that Russia is doing its best to
be disliked in Azerbaijan but is not succeeding as the US is doing it
much better,” Yunusov said with irony. He agreed with the other experts
that Azerbaijan is self-sufficient and secure in terms of energy.
Georgy Nozadze is concerned for Russia and Azerbaijan as their
policies heavily rely on fuel prices. Even though in the last 100
years fuel prices have been growing, one should not forget that
once they slumped by as much as 80%. True, they rose again in some
3 years, but Russia and Azerbaijan will hardly survive such a long
period. Even stabilization fund will not help them. That’s why they
need a detailed state program on how to effectively use the revenues
they get from the rising oil prices. Another big threat is a global
ecological disaster in the Caspian Sea. Here Baku is better protected
than Moscow as it has involved many private foreign companies in its
fuel projects while Moscow has not. Nozadze noted that expertise and
healthy competition substantially reduce risks.
During the discussion Rasim Musabekov and Ilgar Mamedov pointed
out that Georgia’s energy security is exclusively important for
Azerbaijan. They stressed that if Russia stops supplying gas to
Georgia, Azerbaijan will do it. Zaslavsky and Gasanov summed up
the results of the roundtable. They urged the experts to meet again
in order to discuss the numerous problems of the energy and other
important spheres of Azerbaijan and Russia.
From: Baghdasarian

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT – AZERI FOREIGN MINISTER
Author: A.Ismaylova
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
We discussed the proposals of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
that were put forward in Moscow and came to a conclusion to continue
the discussions, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadayarov
informed the Radio “Freedom”, commenting his meeting with Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan, Trend reports.
Mammadyarov said that after November 20, the co-chairs will arrive
to Yerevan and then to Baku. They offered, after their visit to
the region, to organize the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
Presidents. The Minister said that after returning to Baku, he will
inform the President of Azerbaijan and a relevant decision will be
made on the proposal. The Foreign Minister considers that there is a
possibility to conduct the meeting of the Presidents on November 28 in
Minsk within the Summit of the CIS Heads. As for the negotiations with
the Armenian Foreign Minister, Mammadyarov said that the differences
still remain. In addition, he emphasized that over the recent two
years, the negotiations have been held within the Prague process and
Armenia understands the position of Azerbaijan. “Yet it is early to
speak about any progress.
It may be possible only after the meeting of the Presidents,”
Mammadyarov said.
He said that the talks will not be finished this year. If there is
any political decision, the question will be resolved. “As you know,
Azerbaijan is developing year by year. The position of Azerbaijan is
strengthenning. We need to continue the talks by using these arguments
and deliver out position to the attention of the world public, and
we will continue this course,” the Minister said.

NO COUNTRY THAT RESPECTS ITSELF WILL RECOGNIZE REFERENDUM IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH – AZERI SPEAKER
Author: S.Aliyev
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
“I do not consider the referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh as a
referendum. No country respecting itself will recognize this
referendum,” the Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Oktay Asadov
briefed the media on November 15 commenting on the referendum scheduled
to take place on December 10 in occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region of
Azerbaijan, Trend reports. The Speaker stressed that on November 16-17
it is planned to hold the meeting between the Head of Parliaments of
“Caucasus four” within the meeting of the Heads of the Parliaments
of CIS member-countries in Saint-Petersburg. “Azerbaijan will act so
that not to be conflict country in CIS. For this it needs to use the
force and experience of CIS countries to put pressure on the countries
that are guilty in these conflicts,” Asadov said.

ILHAM ALIYEV: WE ARE CLOSE TO RELEASE OUR TERRITORIES, THEREFORE ARMENIANS COMMIT ARSONS
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
“20% of the Azerbaijani territories were occupied by Armenia. The
situation in the occupied territories is very bad. The forces occupied
the Azerbaijani territories not only destroyed our historical,
national, religious monuments but also damaged our nature,” Azerbaijan
President said during his speech in the presentation ceremony of the
prize set by Michael Zukov Fund of Germany.
The President said the nature was damaged, precious trees were cut,
and arsons were committed in the occupied territories.
“We have irrefutable facts. OSCE fact-finding mission held a monitoring
in the occupied territories. The report they made is very terrible,
everything, buildings, historical monuments were destroyed, precious
trees were cut. As a result of it several large furniture plants
function at the moment,” the President said.
Ilham Aliyev said that Armenians realize that they will leave our
lands; we are close to release our territories, therefore they commit
arsons. He said they raised this problem on the level of UN. We ask
all organizations and NGO to pay attention to this problem.
Committing arsons in the occupied territories is unbearable fact;
these actions cannot be made by the people living in the XXI century.

REPRESENTATIVES OF AZERBAIJANI EMBASSY TO HUNGARY WILL OBSERVE LEGAL PROCEEDINGS ON RAMIL SAFAROV’S CASE
Author: E. Javvadova
TREND, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
Representatives of the Azerbaijan Embassy to Hungary will observe
the regular judiciary sitting on the case of Ramil Saffarov, Officer
of Azerbaijan Army. It will be held in the Pesht District Court
in Budapest on November 17, a source in the Azerbaijani Embassy to
Hungary told Trend
The court hearing is presided by judge Tot Dendosh. Lawyer Clara
Fisher, will defend the rights of the Azerbaijani Officer.
Azerbaijani Officer, Ramil Safarov, is accused in resistance to
guards while being under the investigation on the fact of murdering
Armenian Officer Gurgen Markaryan. In accordance to the accusation,
on June 19, 2004, guards came to Mr. Safarov and demanded to give
them his telephone card. The Azerbaijani Officer did not fulfill
their demands. Guards wanted to tie his hands, but he resisted them.
During the last judiciary sittings, Mr. Saffarov said that the guards
demanded his card in Hungarian, and he could not fulfill their demands
because of his lack of knowledge of Hungarian. He also said that
eight guards tied him down and beaten him. Mr. Saffarov forwarded
a complaint against them. They did the same thing and forwarded
a complaint against him. Mr. Saffarov’s complaint has not been
considered, but the guards were immediately considered by the court
Ramil Safarov was sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering the
Armenian officer, on April 13, 2006. The court hearing on this case
has started at 12:00 Baku time.

SONS DON’T APOLOGIZE FOR THEIR FATHERS’ MISTAKES
By Ali Ihsan Aydin
Zaman Online, Turkey
Nov 15 2006
Though first in line when it comes to demanding that Turkey face up to
its dark history, namely claims of a 1915 Armenian genocide, it seems
that Paris is content to take a ‘let’s leave history to the historians’
approach when faced with its own colonial era trauma in Algeria.
French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy has been on an official visit
to France’s former colony Algeria. On Monday Sarkozy placed a wreath
at a monument for Algerians killed in their war for independence and
on Tuesday he visited a monastery in Tibhirine where seven French
monks where killed in 1996.
In only eight years, 1.5 million Algerians died during their country’s
fight for independence between 1954 and 1962. Torture was widespread.
The Algerian government has urged France to apologize for the killings
and suffering during 130 years of colonial rule.
While the Algerian government has called on the French to recognize
“the number of victims and the looting of riches” and “the deletion of
national identity,” Sarkozy preferred to talk about the “dark moments”
of the colonial era and suffering on both sides.
Sarkozy, a leading candidate for the French center-right political
world to run for president next year, has strongly supported France’s
recent notorious bill criminalizing the denial of an Armenian genocide
at the hands of the Turks during World War I.
During his trip Sarkozy preferred to focus on an initiative to lift
visa restrictions for Algerians traveling to Europe. Both the French
interior minister and the Algerian leadership avoided talking too
much on the two topics cooling relations between the two countries:
Algeria’s call for an apology and the postponement of a 2005 bilateral
friendship treaty.
The treaty was pushed aside after France passed a law last year
requiring textbooks to talk about the “positive side” of French
colonialism. An embarrassed Chirac quashed the law but relations
have suffered.
Instead, both sides preferred to talk about Sarkozy’s trip in terms
of a “necessary” friendship between the two countries “condemned”
to a mutual future, said Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

EAST OF THE JORDAN: THE FORGOTTEN ‘HOLY LAND’
By By JAMES A. SMITH SR.
Florida Baptist Witness, FL
Nov 15 2006
Photo by James A. Smith Sr.
The Serpentine Cross stands at the promontory of Mount Nebo where Moses
looked into the Promise Land God forbade him from entering. The Dead
Sea and Jordan River Valley separate Israel on the west from Jordan
on the east. The Cross represents the brazen serpent God directed
Moses to use in the wilderness to stop a plague among the rebellious
children of Israel.
AMMAN, JORDAN (FBW)-I’m not much for international travel, but one
of the places I have always wanted to visit is the “Holy Land” to
personally observe where my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ ministered,
as well as the prophets of the Old Testament and the apostles who
built the New Testament church.
In my mind, the modern-day borders of Israel were the extent of my less
careful thinking about the Holy Land. That changed on a 10-day tour
of Jordan with nine other Baptist newspaper editors in late September.
Sponsored by the Jordan Tourism Board and the Royal Institute
of Inter-Faith Studies, our hosts sought to expand the horizons
of Christian pilgrims as they think of travel to the Holy Land to
include sites east of the Jordan River, the demarcation today for
Israel and the West Bank controlled by the Palestinian Authority from
the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
In fact, many events of biblical history actually occurred in what
is modern day Jordan-the land of Old Testament times known as Edom,
Moab and Ammon, and during New Testament times known as Nabatea,
Perea and the Decapolis.
Modern day Jordan is the land where critical biblical figures,
including Abraham, Ruth, Job, Elijah spent pivotal time and where
important biblical history took place, including the destruction of
the wicked cities of Sodom and Gomorrah and the place where Jacob
wrestled with the Angel of God and his name was changed to Israel.
No discussion of travel to Jordan can exclude the breathtaking site of
Petra, known as the “red-rose capital” of the Nabateans. Most famous
for its part in the Hollywood blockbuster, “Indiana Jones and the Last
Crusade,” Petra’s elaborately chiseled edifices carved out of mountains
were actually tombs for important leaders of the Nabatean kingdom,
most prominently, the so-called “Treasury” featured in “Indiana Jones.”
There appear to be several biblical references to Petra (or
Sela/Joktheel: Judg. 1:36; Is. 16:1; 42:11) and tradition holds that
Moses’ striking of the rock that brought forth water (Num. 20;10-11)
during the wilderness wanderings of the children of Israel took place
near Petra. Some scholars believe Petra could be the location where
Israel will flee during the end times’ tribulation (Matt. 24:15-16;
Rev. 12:6).
During our travels in Jordan, three sites of biblical significance
were of particular interest to me-Gadara, the disputed location of
Jesus’ healing of the Gaderene demoniac; Mount Nebo, the place where
God allowed Moses to view the Promise Land he would not be permitted
to enter; and, most significantly, Bethany beyond the Jordan, the
possible location of Jesus’ baptism by John the Baptist.
Gadara
Umm Qays-biblical Gadara-is one of the cities of the Decapolis with
Graeco/Roman ruins is located in extreme northern Jordan from which
one can view the Sea of Galilee to the northwest and the area today
known as the Golan Heights, contested territory between Israel and
Syria. There is scholarly debate about whether this city is the
location of the healing of the demoniac (Matt. 8:28-34; Mark 5:1-17;
Luke 8:26-37) or whether Gergesa, a city directly on the eastern
shore of the Sea of Galilee, is the proper location.
Photo by James A. Smith Sr.
Looking northwest from Umm Qays – biblical Gadara – the Sea of
Galilee around which much of Jesus’ ministry took place can be seen
about six miles away. Although there is scholarly debate about the
precise location, Jesus’ healing of the Gadarene demoniac may have
taken place in this extreme northern region of modern day Jordan.
New Testament scholars are divided on which location is the most likely
place of the miracle since the names used by the Gospel writers were
not the same, owning to the differences in how the original audiences
of the Gospels would have understood regional names.
The argument for Umm Qays/Gadara is built in part on the name itself,
but also on the fact that a 4th century Byzantine basilica’s location
suggests that faithful believers of that era believed this city to
be the location of the miracle. The distance of the Sea of Galilee
from the site-some six miles-causes me to wonder whether the location
directly on the Sea of Galilee seems more likely since the swine into
which the demons were cast by Jesus ran off a cliff into the Sea of
Galilee. Our tour guide answered that it’s impossible to know how
much larger the Sea may have been in Jesus’ day.
Like many sites in the Holy Land, certainty is probably not within
reach, until further evidence can settle the matter. Of course,
the exact location of the miracle does not call into question the
historical reality of Jesus’ healing of the demoniac.
Mount Nebo
Although it’s impossible to know precisely where Moses stood to
look into the Promise Land he was not permitted to enter, there’s no
disputing that the area identified today as Mount Nebo is very close
to the vantage point Moses viewed the Dead Sea and Jordan River Valley.
Located on the Northeast end of the Dead Sea, Deut. 34:1 records,
“Now Moses went up from the plains of Moab to Mount Nebo, to the top
of Pisgah, which is opposite Jericho. And the Lord showed him all
the land … .” The Bible reports that God Himself buried Moses in
the valley in the land of Moab opposite Beth-peor “but no man knows
his burial place to this day” (34:6).
Photo by James A. Smith Sr.
A sign at Mount Nebo shows the distance and direction of important
sites in Israel, including Jerusalem/Mount of Olives, Jericho and
Bethlehe.
The hazy day we stood on Mount Nebo did not permit us to see very
much-although I understand that on a clear day it’s possible to see
far into Israel. One can imagine what Moses would have thought as he
viewed the Promised Land that the children of Israel would soon enter,
fulfilling the promise God made to Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.
West of the Dead Sea lies the ancient cities of Jericho (16 miles),
Bethlehem (31 miles), and, of course, Jerusalem (28 miles). The site
has long been recognized by Christian pilgrims and includes a church
which was originally built in the 4th century with later additions
in the following two centuries.
Bethany beyond the Jordan
The site I was most interested in seeing was saved for last-Bethany
beyond the Jordan, what some scholars believe Jesus was baptized by
John the Baptist. As with Gadara, there is some dispute among scholars.
John 1:28 reports, “These things took place in Bethany beyond the
Jordan, where John was baptizing,” and John 10:40 records, “And
[Jesus] went away again beyond the Jordan to the place where John
was first baptizing.”
Our tour of the baptism site was personally guided by Rustom Mkhjian,
the assistant director of the Baptism Site Commission of the Ministry
of Tourism and Antiquities. This was a special treat because Mkhjian
has played an integral role in the recent excavation of the site. As a
self-professed Armenian Christian, Mkhjian clearly had the passion of
not just a professional scholar, but of a personal follower of Christ.
Although some scholars believe Jesus was baptized much further north,
the Baptism Commission has excavated the site opposite Jericho on the
east side of the Jordan since 1996, making a number of archeological
finds which seems to strongly point to its validity as the place where
John the Baptist baptized Jesus, with close links to the ministry of
the prophet Elijah.
Mkhjian told our group that he used four factors to validate the
findings: what the Gospel accounts record, what later Christian
pilgrims recognized, archeological work, and the 6th century mosaic
map of the Holy Land in Madaba (located only 10 minutes by car from
Mount Nebo).
What was most striking to me about the site was how modest the Jordan
River is-at the observation deck it was probably less than ten yards
across to the Israeli side. Unlike some pilgrims, I did not take
the occasion of being baptized in the Jordan, since I do not believe
there is any thing spiritually significant about the water and since
I believe baptism is a one-time event of one’s public profession
of faith.
Photo by James A. Smith Sr.
The Jordan River at Bethany beyond the Jordan is the approximate
location of Jesus’ baptism by John the Baptist. The river at this
point is barely ten yards wide and separates Israel, to the left,
and Jordan, to the right.
Still, it was inspiring to know that I was at the river where Jesus
was baptized-no matter what precise location was. Thankfully, one does
not have to go to the “Holy Land” to find God; but also, thankfully,
the fact that the biblical sites exist provide encouragement to
faithful followers of Christ today.
One day, I hope that I will be able to visit the rest of the Holy
Land-west of the Jordan, but my tour of Jordan was an invigorating
encouragement of the historical reality of what the Bible teaches us
about God’s plan of redemption. In the person of Jesus Christ His Son,
God invaded time and space in the place we call the Holy Land so that
human beings could be reconciled to Him.
“And the Word became flesh, and dwelt among us, and we saw His glory,
glory as of the only begotten from the Father, full of grace and truth”
(John 1:18). Hallelujah, what a Savior!
For more information on sites of biblical interest in Jordan, see
and
Photos:

RAMIL SAFAROV TO BE SENTENCED NOVEMBER 17
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
On November 17 Pest court headed by judge Tot Tyondyosh will hold
court hearings on prison officers’ claim against Ramil Safarov,
Azerbaijani army officer, who was sentenced to life in prison for
murdering Armenian lieutenant Gurgen Markarian in Hungary, Azerbaijani
Embassy told the APA.
The officers of the Embassy will participate in the court. He will
be sentenced after the witnesses’ testimony. Hungarian lawyer Clara
Fisher will defend his rights on the case.
It should be noted that, while being kept in Hungarian prison in
2004, jailers wanted telephone card from Ramil. But Ramil could
not understand Hungarian which led an incident between them. Eight
police officers tied his hands and used force. Though lawyers for
the Azerbaijani lieutenant appealed to court related to this matter,
the court dismissed the appeal saying there was no evidence. Then
the opposite side claimed that Ramil resisted officials.

IGDIR’S GOVERNOR: ARMENIA SHOULD APOLOGIZE TO TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN FOR THE COMMITTED CRIMES
Author: M. Taghiyev
TREND, Azerbaijan
Nov 15 2006
Arrangements devoted to the 86th anniversary of the liberation of
the province from Armenian occupation have been held in the Turkish
Province of Igdir bordering with Azerbaijan. Hassan Zeynalov,
Azerbaijan Consulate General to Kars, and musical collective of the
Nakhchivan State University of Azerbaijan took part in the event,
Trend report
During the event, Saif Saffet Karakhisarli, Governor of Igdir
awarded the Azerbaijani diplomat with a diploma for his services in
developing Turkish-Azerbaijani trade ties. “Those who have survived
all the burden of struggle against occupation, value the cost for
independence better. First of all it concerns Azerbaijanis struggling
for the liberation of their territories from the Armenian occupation”,
the Governor said.
Mr. Karakhisarli called upon Armenia to establish good-neighbour
relations with Ankara and to do all possible to deserve Turkey trust.
“Yerevan should apologize to Turkey and Azerbaijan for crimes committed
in the past”, said the Turkish Governor.

BAKU REPORTS PROGRESS IN KARABAKH TALKS
Interfax, Russia
Nov 15 2006
BAKU. Nov 15 (Interfax) – Azerbaijan has welcomed Azeri-Armenian talks
on the Karabakh settlement held in Brussels on Tuesday, Azerbaijan’s
Foreign Ministry spokesman Tair Tagizade told the press.
“Although the talks were difficult, they were very constructive. The
main issue for us is to make at least one step forward in the
negotiating process. The parties made that step this time,” Tagizade
said.
“The main achievement is that the talks are continuing and that
the ministers managed to discuss all aspects of the package being
negotiated,” the diplomat said, but did not elaborate.
“Azerbaijan’s position is that the settlement cannot be partial. It
must cover all issues or it has no sense at all. The parties have
not been able to come to terms on all aspects of the settlement,”
Tagizade said.