The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was in Baku and Yerevan on July 1-2, promising to strengthen ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia through financial support and joint transport and energy projects. The results of this tour certainly require a comprehensive assessment.

Among other things, The head of the European Commission announced «Economic pressure on Armenia» and assured that Brussels is full of determination to support Yerevan, more precisely, its current establishment. Although the official’s assessment is in some contradiction with the position of the Armenian authorities. No՞ that Nikol Pashinyan himself and his cabinet have repeatedly shown their readiness for further contacts with the Russian side on issues of interest to the Armenian authorities. 

According to “Hraparak” information, the RA MFA sent letters and requests through diplomatic channels to the RF MFA, asking to invite them to the “Innoprom” exhibition to be held in Yekaterinburg to discuss the problems arising during the supply of agricultural products to Russia.

The meeting with Mikhail Mishustin took place on July 6, but already from July 10, 2026, according to the information of the food safety inspection body, the export of cargo subject to phytosanitary control in commercial volumes from Armenia by individuals is prohibited. “According to the technical regulations of the EAEU, the total weight of products subject to phytosanitary control transported by individuals for personal use cannot exceed 5 kilograms.”

Still, we got a little sidetracked. The declared goals of von der Leyen’s current tour to Azerbaijan and Armenia are to support the process of normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku, to strengthen the transport interconnection and interdependence of Transcaucasia, to deepen economic cooperation with the region in general, and to support Nikol Pashinyan’s government. At first, the European Commissioner stood out in the “Land of Lights”, where he had a meeting with Aliyev on July 1.  The main topic of the negotiations was partnership in the energy sector.

by the way 4 years ago, when the EU was looking for an alternative to Russian energy carriers, von der Leyen was already visiting Baku to look for long-term supplies of natural gas from the western shores of the Caspian Sea.  Within 4 years, they have increased by 65 percent, Aliyev said, adding that ten countries receive Azerbaijani gas today.

“More than 40% of our trade goes to EU member states. For the European Union, Azerbaijan is the main trade partner in the South Caucasus. Almost 70% of the EU’s trade in the South Caucasus is with Azerbaijan,” said the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan proudly.

The guest from Brussels assured that the parties intend to deepen the mentioned course. “Azerbaijan will integrate its energy system with the EU. It will also create opportunities for the export of additional volumes of gas,” stated Ursula von der Leyen, highly appreciating Baku’s initiative on laying an electric cable between Transcaucasian republics.

Another cornerstone aspect of the relations was the problem of transport links and interconnection.

Within the framework of the Global Gateway (initiative for the development of a global network of infrastructure projects in third countries) program, the EU will allocate up to 200 million euros in grants for the development of transport, energy and digital connections in the region. Among the possible projects are railway communication through the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan and the development of the international sea port of Baku.

The European official announced no less Napoleonic plans in Yerevan, where he moved on July 2.

Practically all the statements of the head of the European Commission can be summed up in the fact that the EU is allegedly already fully ready to replace Russia in the region, including as a trade and energy partner. “We can redirect the products, which are currently mainly intended for the Russian market, to the EU single market – 450 million consumers.

This measure will open the door to Europe for almost 99% of Armenia’s fresh agricultural produce, as well as 90% of your exports of beverages and spirits to the EU single market. This is just the beginning,” Frau von der Leyen painted the “castles in the air”. According to him, Brussels is also full of determination to support Yerevan in diversifying its energy supply. soon a group of experts will arrive in Yerevan to solve this problem. “We have a lot of experience working in such situations.

We have gone through it in Ukraine, Moldova, we have accumulated considerable experience,” the official clarified on this occasion during a press conference with Nikol Pashinyan, who this time was careful not to make sharp contrasts between Moscow and Brussels.

Emphasizing the fact that no one in Yerevan is planning to reverse the European integration, the Prime Minister clarified that the Armenian side does not intend to worsen relations with Russia either. “We act within the interests of our country. Naturally, we do not ignore the interests of any of our international partners, but on the other hand, we cannot put the interests of any of our partners above the interests of the Republic of Armenia.”

It is quite obvious that economic and energy projects and long-term interests in that direction, which are closely related to the development of transport routes, have clearly become the main leitmotif of the tour of the head of the European Commission in Transcaucasia.. It is no coincidence that following the results of his previous visit to Azerbaijan in the summer of 2022, the head of the European Union announced his determination to increase the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor, the 3,500 km long pipeline system connecting the Caspian region to Europe, to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2027.

It should also not be forgotten that the EU’s interest in transport routes in the Transcaucasian post-Soviet area is due not only to logistical problems, but also to the firm intention to ensure stable supplies of energy resources, rare earths, uranium and other strategically important resources, which are necessary for the development of the industry and military-industrial complex of Germany, France and other states., which are openly preparing for an armed confrontation with Russia.

Yuri Mavashev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan’s guest is Artur Khachikyan, doctor of political science from Stanford University.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• There was a time when I thought that there should be some difference between the behavior of statesmen and the Kuchi bazaar, but those times have passed… It is clear that Nikol Pashinyan’s vocabulary is to please people who want to take revenge on everyone. They enjoy how they arrest a 70-year-old man who does not show any resistance, laying him on the ground… This was not an election campaign, this was a kuch fight, razbirat. And as we said, immediately after the elections, he started repression.

• Neither the government nor the opposition won these elections, because despite massive electoral bribes in the form of increased pensions and health insurance, the government did not get a constitutional majority, and the opposition could not change the government either.:

• There is an impression that that person, Nikol Pashinyan, is taking revenge on the Armenian people. He makes a mess out of men, dignified Armenians, for that he gladly throws them to the ground… When a person takes revenge even on a lion, it is clear that several psychologists are needed to understand what is happening in that person’s consciousness. He was taking revenge on both Gagik Tsarukyan and the animal. If he was a normal person, would he tell the representatives of his nation why you are not dead?

• Macron said in his interview that Karabakh is a territory in the heart of Azerbaijan, and there are Russian soldiers there. In other words, the people of Artsakh, 120,000 of them, were not the compatriots of Charles Aznavour… This is hypocrisy. 

• European leaders are not interested in anything, neither the ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, the genocide, nor the massacre of Palestine, nor the dismemberment of Syria, nor the new attack on Iran. They are only interested in one thing: a war against Russia. It’s a shameful situation in France, deindustrialization is going on in Germany… In fact, Russian gas fed the entire European economy and industry. There is a very strong fight against migrants in England:

• The number of victims in Ukraine has exceeded one million. Ukraine is destroyed, the situation in Russia is bad. The Europeans needed to create an anti-Russian platform in Ukraine. Ukraine already has its own ballistic missiles, the Europeans have provided Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. A powerful military-industrial complex is being built there. This issue should be resolved peacefully. It could be done. But, unfortunately, Boris Johnson, the former prime minister of Great Britain, did not allow signing an agreement during the meeting in Turkey, and Russia, in turn, made mistakes, and what happened happened. If the sides with missile strikes exchanged, it could end very badly.

• As for nuclear threats, people no longer fear nuclear weapons. But if Ukraine starts using ballistic missiles, Russia will either have to surrender, which it won’t, or escalate dramatically.:

• And was it unconditional to fight with Russia to make jam with Armenian fruits, to sell apricots and roses in Europe? Look at Azerbaijan, the states of Central Asia, Georgia, how they cooperate with both Russia and the West… They continue to develop relations with Europe, but they do not fight with Russia. In whose interest was it to lose the Russian market? What problem did our peasant have with Russia? Our fighting with Russia was only in the interests of the West:

• How much longer do they have to give us that advil pain pill so we don’t feel the pain? And if those funds provided by Europe even reach Armenia, in whose hands will they end up?

• If the TRIPP project is built, it will be Iran’s next target amid a new round of US-Iran tensions. Who needed it? According to British research, there is a high probability that the third parties involved in TRIPP will be Turkey and Azerbaijan. They will have the right to do construction work and build infrastructure there. In other words, it will be their territory, Turkey and Azerbaijan will be the tiles:

• Yes, this is Turan, and our area is what they call the Corridor of Vitality. Under these conditions, if this continues, we will see Meghri when we see Van, Mush, Adana and other areas of Western Armenia. Meghri will become their territory and we will take it back when the Turks leave Northern Cyprus.:

• NATO enters the Caspian Sea. The Russians and Iran should think about it, because now, in fact, NATO can approach Iran from the north and cut off its connection with Russia. Yes, AZERBAIJAN will become the largest transport center in the Caucasus.

• We lost Karabakh, now we will lose the enclaves. There are examples in the world when the heads of states begged for peace, but then surrendered the country. Among them was Emil Hakha, the leader of Czechoslovakia. We have taken that path:

• We had two cards, two cards: Karabakh and Meghri. We gave both and got nothing in return. We are no longer a sovereign nation. This is a government that silently fulfills all the demands of Azerbaijan.

• Pranksters Vovan and Lexus are famous in Russia. We are talking about a European Turkish official who puts aside the European values, the rules of non-interference in the internal affairs of another country’s religion and state, and first says that he will punish the European observers who saw irregularities in our elections, and then that he will help to change the Catholicos and our religion. Imagine what would happen if Lukashenko said something like that:

• Azerbaijan does not say that they will cede Artsvashen. It’s a balloon. Even if they hand it over, who will go and live in Artsvashen? And they will come to live in our territories… If they hand over Tigranashen, we will not have a road to Syunik. By giving the territories of Tavush, they block the road to Georgia. I mean, we’re drowning. Those who voted for Pashinyan should understand that they voted for losing Syunik.

• Why do we think that we are better than the Karabakh people and the Palestinians? Why do we think that the same will not happen to us as to them? The people of Artsakh lost their homeland, they left, and Trump says that the Palestinians should also leave, because I will build Luna Park here.:

• Iran will not allow an American military presence on its border. We subverted our security for the pleasure of this regime and its Western masters. 

• We have 1-2 arrests per day. We are already reaching Muammar Gaddafi’s figure. This is terror. 

• Opposition votes should not be wasted. If necessary, let them take the mandates, generate something on the street if they can. Our people must finally wake up and see what is happening around us.

Details in the video.

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