OSCE CHAIRMAN-IN-OFFICE PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE RECEIVED MANDATE TO HOLD INVESTIGATION OF CASES OF BREAKING CEASEFIRE ON AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN FRONTLINE
TREND< Azerbaijan Nov 8 2006 The personal representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Andrzej Kasprzyk, has received the mandate from the Organization to hold an investigation into the case of breaking the ceasefire on the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontline, Kasprzyk briefed the media on 7 November in Yerevan during the reception for the participants of the international conference "South Caucasus: perception of the region and challenges". "The OSCE gave its consent so that I have a separate mandate to hold the investigations," he said. According to Kasprzyk, the budget needs to be increased for personal representatives for this purpose. "I require experts, especially for arms and ballistics," he stated, Trend reports with reference to Novosti-Armenia. He added that direct co-operation between the commanders of both sides is also required to carry out the investigations. "However, at present such co-operation does not exist," Kasprzyk said.

THE EU SHOULD BE PLAYING IRAN AND RUSSIA OFF AGAINST EACH OTHER
Julian Evans
Eurasian Home Analytical Resource, Russia
Nov 8 2006
The European Union is increasingly anxious about being over-reliant on
gas imports from Russia. The Kremlin, it is clear, intends to wield
its huge oil and gas reserves as its main bargaining chip in foreign
relations. The EU is concerned that its authoritarian neighbour to
the east has it “over a barrel”, as one British MP put it. Or, as
the Daily Telegraph recently bewailed “The Russian bear could punch
our lights out!”
If the EU is serious about reducing its dependency on Russian gas,
then it needs to look quickly at Russia’s biggest gas rival – Iran.
Iran is the second-biggest source of gas in the world. It has 18%
of the world’s gas supplies, compared to Russia’s 25%, but experts
believe over 60% of Iran’s reserves are still undeveloped.
The EU should be doing everything it can to foster competition between
these two countries in the energy sphere. It should be striving to
strike bilateral deals for Iranian gas, offering financial support for
Iran’s planned pipelines to India and Pakistan and other projects,
and generally standing four-square with Iran over its global energy
expansion.
The argument the EU should make to Iran (and to America) is that
the country is fighting last century’s war by struggling to become a
nuclear power. If Iran really wants to become a great power again,
it should argue, it should seek to develop its energy markets and
make the rest of the world – the US included – reliant on it. Energy,
not nuclear missiles, is the new weapon of the twenty-first century
great power. The sooner Iran lets go of its outdated ambitions to
be a nuclear super-power, the quicker it can become a modern energy
super-power.
Iran should resist an energy alliance with Russia, the EU should argue,
because Russia will always be in the driving seat. Gazprom only ever
takes a controlling stake in projects, and it will involve itself
in Iranian projects precisely with the object of protecting itself
from Iranian competition and stymieing the development of Iran’s gas
resources. If Iran wants to develop its resources quickly, it should
look to a more efficient and technologically developed partner, such
as Total, OMV or Statoil. Western banks can bring far more capital
to support Iranian energy projects than Russian banks ever could.
But we are not seeing this energy alliance with Iran happen. Instead,
we are seeing the EU once again outmanoeuvred by Gazprom, because
Gazprom thinks two moves ahead, and the EU merely reacts, usually
with panic and indignation.
This weekend, Gazprom bought a controlling stake in its joint
venture with Armenia, ArmRosGas, which controls Armenia’s domestic
gas distribution network and a soon-to-be-completed gas pipeline with
Iran. That pipeline could have helped free both Armenia and Georgia
from dependence on Russian gas, and also have been a conduit for
Iranian gas into western Europe. But the Armenians, unwooed by the EU,
sold the controlling stake to their Russian masters for $119 million.
The same week that this deal was being signed in Moscow with Armenia’s
president, the petroleum minister of India, Murli Deorla, was also in
town. He announced yesterday that India had agreed to let Gazprom join
a planned pipeline from Iran to India and Pakistan. He said: “Russia
will join the Iran pipeline. I spoke to Pakistan minister for petroleum
and natural resources Amanullah Khan Jadoon (on Russian participation)
on Tuesday and will be speaking to the Iranian minister later”.
So on the two most important new projects bringing Iranian gas to the
outside world, Gazprom is involved, and possibly even in control. A
good weekend’s work, fellows.
These appear to be the first decisive steps in a Kremlin initiative
to forge an energy alliance with Iran. Also last week, Valery Yazev,
head of the Duma energy committee and Gazprom’s top lobbyist in the
Duma, called for the creation of a gas cartel involving CIS countries,
and including Iran, to counter the ‘cartel’ of European consumers. The
plan was prompted, he said, by the refusal of France and Germany
to be played off against the rest of Europe by president Putin, who
offered Germany the chance to be a hub for Russian supplies to the
rest of Europe when he visited Germany in September.
Merkel refused, sensible lady.
Alexander Medvedev, deputy chairman of Gazprom, yesterday told me that
he viewed participation with Iran as “very profitable. We hope to use
the joint venture to become involved in extraction and development
[of Iranian gas], and possibly help supply gas through the joint
venture to Western Europe, as well as Pakistan and India”.
So Russia is already a few steps ahead of the EU in this game. An
energy alliance with Iran would tie up around 45% of the world’s
gas supplies.
However, the game is not over yet. Luckily for us, the US and UK
governments thought slightly ahead in the early 1990s, and secured
both the BTC and Shah Deniz pipelines, which will bring oil and gas
from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to Europe, without going through Russia.
There is also a plan, now being put on the front-burner by the EU,
to build a new Nabucco pipeline from the Caspian region to Austria,
with OMV the main backer of the project. Gazprom has also asked to be
involved in the project. Of course – as soon as the Kremlin signs the
European Energy Charter. The project is intended to take Azeri gas,
but should also take Iranian gas too.
Am I being naïve, arguing for EU participation with Iran, for its
support for Iran’s gas industry, which will only enrich this dangerous
and authoritarian country?
Firstly, the lure of Iran becoming a global energy super-power might
possibly be sufficient to persuade it away from its path of becoming
a nuclear power, one of many all over the Middle East. It would never
be a dominant nuclear power, but it could be a dominant gas power,
one of the most powerful in the world.
Secondly, when it comes to energy supplies, it’s not a question of
whether to work with illiberal authoritarian regimes or not. It’s
a question of trying to balance one authoritarian regime against
another, so you’re not too dependent on any one. Every energy
power in the world, with the exception of Norway, is illiberal and
authoritarian. Dick Cheney, for all his evilness, at least realizes
this, and worked earlier than any EU bureaucrat to diversify CIS
countries away from Moscow’s control.
We should be doing the same with Iran, though unfortunately the US
seems to have decided on an altogether more direct method for securing
Iranian energy supplies – and it is their belligerent rhetoric, and
the EU’s typically slow and confused energy policy, that is helping
drive Iran and Russia together.
Julian Evans, a British freelance journalist based in Moscow.
November 8, 2006
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AS DEMOCRATS SWEEP IN, NEW ARMENIAN BILLS ON THE HORIZON
Hurriyet, Turkey
Nov 8 2006
The Washington based Armenian lobby has announced that mid-term
elections are a “reason for Turkey to worry” with regards to a possible
new Armenian genocide bill on the horizon. Aram Hamparian, the director
of the Armenian ANCA foundation, has asserted that a majority Democrat
House of Representative would act in the Armenians’ favor, and has
noted that US Congressman Adam Schiff is already preparing a bill on
the so-called Armenian genocide to be debated during the next term.
Also acting in the Armenian lobby’s favor is the fact that
Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the soon-to-be Speaker of the House, has
been supporting Armenian bills in the US capital for the past 20 years.

DUTCH LABOR PARTY REGRETS EXCLUDING TURKS FROM LIST
By Basri Dogan, Ali Cimen, The Hague
Zaman Online, Turkey
Nov 8 2006
Wouter Bos, leader of the Dutch Labor Party, issued a statement
shortly before the early parliamentary vote on Nov. 22 in a bid to
ease the Turkish reaction against his past decision to exclude some
Turks from party lists because they had refused to acknowledge an
Armenian genocide.
Bos said he was sorry for his offhand use of ‘genocide’ as a word.
“There is too much confusion about our views. We’re solely responsible
for this. I’m so sorry for lackadaisical use of genocide as a word,”
Bos told a news conference.
Dutch Labor Party Chairman Michiel van Hulten, Nebahat Albayrak and
other Turkish members of parliament who managed to remain on the list
were also by Bos’ side when he apologized.
“So many people, both Turkish and Armenian, lost their lives in a
war in the early 20th century,” said Bos in an attempt to clarify
his party’s view on the Armenian question.
The question calls for historical and legal examination, said Bos,
adding his hopes that Armenians will match Turks in their attempts
to reach a settlement over the question.
Bos admitted to his lack of knowledge in this area of history.
Bos expressed his feelings of disappointment for excluding Erdinc
Sacan from the party list as a candidate for a place at the parliament,
but he defended that Sacan was not totally excluded from politics.
Turkish-origin members of Dutch society will take a cautious approach
to such statements from Bos, as they were made prior to the upcoming
elections.

FRENCH AMBASSADOR CONDEMNS GENOCIDE DENIAL BILL
By Cihan News Agency, Hatay
Zaman Online, Turkey
Nov 8 2006
French Ambassador to Ankara Jean Paul Poudade spoke out against the
French parliament’s decision pass the law draft penalizing the denial
of the so-called Armenian genocide.
Poudade termed the law as an “unnecessary and polemical decision.”
Paying a visit to Hatay Governor Ahmet Kayhan, Poudade stated the
French government did not support the decision and defended his views
that this is not binding for all of France.
Recalling the 2007 presidential elections in his country, the
ambassador said: “There are more important issues to discuss and this
decision will soon be off the agenda. Everyone should face their own
history. We are faced with our history from slavery to World War II.”
The ambassador noted that relations between the two countries were
continuing at the highest level and added, “I do not think this
decision will affect bilateral relations.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

EU REPORT CONTAINS STINGING CRITICISM OF TURKEY
Financial Mirror, Cyprus
Nov 8 2006
Freedom of speech in Turkey is not guaranteed, the military still plays
a “significant” political role and non-Muslim religious communities
face discrimination, the European Commission is set to say in a report
due out Wednesday, according to a report by EUobserver.
Just over a year after Turkey started membership negotiations with the
EU in October 2005, the European Commission will on Wednesday release
both a specific progress report on Turkey and a general enlargement
report which also deals with Ankara’s EU accession bid.
Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn will present the enlargement
strategy paper and progress reports for candidate countries, including
Turkey, in Brussels at 12.00 local time (1100 GMT).
A draft version of the general report says that “Turkey has continued
to make progress in reforms,” but adds that “the pace of reforms
has slowed.”
“In 2007, it will be important to undertake determined efforts to
broaden the reform momentum throughout Turkey,” the document says.
The draft progress report – detailing specific policy areas – kicks
off with a chapter on Turkey’s compliance with the EU’s political
and human rights standards which according to the commission leaves
a lot to be desired.
“The armed forces have continued to exercise significant political
influence. Senior members of the armed forces have expressed
their opinion on domestic and foreign policy issues,” the draft
says referring to generals interfering in issues such as Cyprus,
secularism and the Kurdish issue.
Further highlighting the uncontrolled role of Turkey’s army, the draft
continues by stating that “no further progress has been achieved
in terms of strengthening parliamentary overseeing of the military
budget and expenditure.”
The report is highly critical of restrictions on freedom of speech
in the EU candidate country – targeting in particular the notorious
article 301 of Turkey’s recently adopted penal code, which penalises
insults against “Turkishness”.
“The prosecutions and convictions for the expression of non-violent
opinion under certain provisions of the new Penal Code are a cause
for serious concern and may contribute to a climate of self-censorship
in the country.”
“Freedom of expression in line with European standards is not yet
guaranteed in the present legal framework,” Brussels concludes in the
draft, which was however prepared before Turkish leader Recep Tayyip
Erdogan over the weekend indicated he is ready to revise article 301.
The European Commission on Monday welcomed Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s pledge to revise a key article of the Turkish penal
code which is widely viewed as a serious breach of freedom of speech.
The commission insisted, however, that Erodogan’s promise must be
followed by quick action to change the code’s disputed article 301,
that makes it illegal to dispute the national policy, including
the denial of discussing, let alone adopting, views related to the
Armenian genocide and the persecution of Kurds.
Under the code a number of journalists and authors have been charged
for ‘insulting Turkishness,’ including Nobel Literature laureate
Orhan Pamuk.
Brussels in the report welcomes a “downward trend” in the number
of cases of torture and ill-treatment but notes at the same time
that torture cases are “still being reported, in particular outside
detention centres.”
The report further says that non-Muslim religious communities
“continued to face restricted property rights” while “full respect
of women’s rights remains a critical problem, particularly in the
poorest areas of the country.”
Two local TV stations have been allowed to air in the Kurdish language
– but they are not allowed to show educational programmes in Kurdish.
— No progress on Cyprus
As expected, Brussels has condemned Turkey’s continued blocking of
trade from EU member state Cyprus.
“Turkey has continued to deny access to its ports to vessels flying
the Republic of Cyprus flag or where the last port of call is Cyprus,”
Brussels notes, adding Ankara’s restrictions “infringe the customs
union agreement” it signed with the EU.
A passage added to the report after the weekend and cited by
the Financial Times said however that Brussels will postpone
a recommendation on whether or not to suspend the accession talks
because of Turkey’s stance on Cyprus – until a later date before an
EU leaders’ summit in December.
— Some positive notes
Despite the generally critical tone of the report – with “limited”
or “no” progress reported also in the areas of agriculture, the
environment and in many internal market-related areas – the commission
also has some praise for Turkey.
“Turkey’s overall alignment with EU common foreign and security policy
has continued,” the document says referring to the country’s positive
role in the Middle East.
As for education and culture, “alignment is nearly complete and overall
Turkey is well prepared for accession in this area,” according to
the draft.
“Education and culture” is among the next negotiating chapters waiting
in line to be opened as part of the accession talks – but Cyprus has
said it will veto the opening of any new chapter unless Turkey gives
in on opening its ports and airports to Cypriot traffic before the
end of the year.

TURKISH LOCAL GOVERNOR ACCUSES EUROPE OF IGNORING ARMENIAN CRIMES IN AZERBAIJAN
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
France ambassador to Turkey Paul Poudade has been to Isgenderun city
of Hatay region, APA reports.
The head of municipality Mete Aslan criticized the ambassador. Paul
Poudade said that Turkey has lots of home tasks to do and this process
will be too difficult for them to be admitted to EU membership and
it infuriated Mete Aslan.
“I want Turkey not to be admitted to EU and the last signals coming
from EU are signs for it,” Mete Aslan said.
Afterwards he touched upon the question of false Armenian genocide.
“Turkey did not commit genocide to Armenians. Europe new about
Armenian’s massacres in Azerbaijan, but did not take measurers. EU
observes Turkmen’s genocide while defending Kurds in Iraq,” he added.
After these words the ambassador asked the journalists to leave the
room and they had closed talks. After the meeting Aslan said Europe
wants to separate Turkey. He stressed that the monument to Turkish
genocide committed by Armenians will be erected in Isgenderun.

EU REPORT SHARPLY CRITICIZES TURKEY’S REFORM RECORD
Yigal Schleifer
EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 8 2006
Turkey’s accession negotiations with the European Union are entering
a critical period after an EU report, released November 8, sharply
criticized Ankara’s reform performance.
European Union diplomats have been warning for months that a slowdown
in the Turkish reform process, the large number of free-speech court
cases and the closure of Turkish ports and airports to EU-member Cyprus
were undermining Ankara’s EU accession aspirations. The EU progress
report provided the most definitive evidence yet that EU membership
for Turkey is not a sure thing. [For additional information see the
Eurasia Insight archive].
“There will be a crisis from now until [the upcoming EU summit
in] December, that is clear,” says Joost Lagendijk, who heads the
European Parliament delegation to the joint EU-Turkey parliamentary
committee. The November 8 report is likely to form the basis of
discussions when leaders of the 25-member EU ponder whether or not
to freeze accession negotiations with Turkey.
“The report represents a very important point, politically, as the
trains are heading towards a crash,” says Kirsty Hughes, a London-based
European affairs analyst. “The [report] will be pointing towards
a crash, but how bad it is depends on how the EU member countries
follow up on it. There’s going to be a big fight between the member
countries after it comes out over what to do.”
The European Commission appeared to set a moderate tone on November 8,
recommending against a suspension of accession talks.
Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a stern warning,
telling a German newspaper that if Ankara refuses to open up its
ports to Cypriot trade – something it has promised to do as part of
the deal to begin the negotiations – “the EU accession talks cannot
continue in this fashion.”
Diplomats and analysts in Turkey are downbeat about the prospects of
Ankara regaining reform momentum anytime soon. A wave of anti-Western
nationalism has been washing over Turkey, fueled by a perception that
the EU has been one-sided on the Cyprus issue. Recent European moves on
the Armenian issue have also antagonized Ankara, in particular a recent
law passed by the lower house of the French parliament making it a
crime to deny that the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks
constitutes genocide. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Turkey will hold parliamentary elections next November, and observers
in Turkey believe that little progress will happen on the EU front,
as political parties are expected to emphasize their nationalist
credentials and distance themselves from the currently unpopular
accession negotiations.
According to a June poll by the Pew Research Center, Turkish support
for the EU has fallen to 35 percent, down from almost 80 percent three
years ago (support for the United States was a dismal 12 percent,
according to the same poll).
“I don’t think joining the EU would be a good thing for Turkey. They
are pushing us too hard. They always want something more,” says Faruk
Yilmaz, who works in a small kiosk that sells snack food in Istanbul’s
historic Beyoglu neighborhood. “Turkey has wanted to be a member for
such a long time. We are always walking towards them and they send
us back to the start.
Suat Kiniklioglu, executive director of the German Marshall Fund’s
Turkey office, says that while EU membership was once supported by
a majority of Turks, today it is a divisive issue. “Certainly the
military and the secularists have turned against the EU and for them
a negative [EU progress] report would be welcomed, since it would
mean a slowdown in the negotiations,” he said.
“I am afraid that the people who believe that Turkey belongs in Europe
are becoming a minority,” he continued.
But if not in Europe, then where does Turkey belong? There have been
suggestions that the country’s government, run by the Islamic-rooted
Justice and Development Party, might lead Turkey towards a closer
alliance with the Islamic world. But Ioannis Grigoriadis, a professor
of political science at Istanbul’s Isik University, says that rather
than eastward, Turkey’s growing nationalism is looking inward.
“It could end up with a Turkey that is very introverted and
self-reliant,” he says.
A distancing from the EU, says Grigoriadis, could ultimately hurt the
process of democratization in Turkey, since “the EU acts as both an
anchor and as a trigger, on the one hand pushing for change from the
outside, but also protecting the steps already made.”
Despite the criticism from Brussels, as well as the nationalist mood
in Turkey, there are indications that both sides are working to reach
a compromise before the EU summit in December. Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently expressed a willingness to amend article
301, a controversial law limiting free speech, while there are also
efforts to work out an interim deal on the Cyprus issue.
“I think all parties will try until the last moment way to prevent
this train crash,” says Lagendijk, the European parliamentarian.
Some are also suggesting that beyond compromise what may also be needed
is a change in the way the EU approaches Turkey. Kemal Dervis, Turkey’s
former economy minister and the current head of the United Nations
Development Program, recently said that the EU’s constant pressure
for reform will only continue to alienate Turks. Isik University’s
Grigoriadis say that if the EU wants to keep Turkey within its orbit,
it has to reel the country in slowly. “You can’t pull the line too
tight, or it will break,” he says.
Editor’s Note: Yigal Schleifer is a freelance journalist based in
Istanbul.

ASKING FOR EXAMPLES
Naira Mamikonian
Aravot, Armenia
Nov 8 2006
Serge Sargsian asks for certain examples when the Russian party
manages to use its economic levers for political purposes.
Serge Sargsian, the RA Defense Minister and the cochairman of
Armenian-Russian economic intergovernmental commission in answer to
the question that “taking into consideration that the Russian party
manages to use its economic levers for political purposes, doesn’t he
have any apprehension that the share of Russian capital is added and
important strategic objects become Russian?” said; “I don’t consider
it dangerous. Because I haven’t seen yet how the Russian party uses
its economic levers. Give me an example, when the Russian capital
in Armenia has made pressure on us”. In answer to S. Sargsian’s this
question, it isn’t difficult to give a lot of examples, such as the
fact of rise in gas price. Russia announced about its intention to
raise the gas price from $56 to $110 at the beginning of last winter.
It isn’t secret any more that it was the answer to the RA authorities
attempt for diversification of risks in power sphere. The point is
that the RA government has given its privilege to Iranian “MAR”
and “Sanir” companies after long negotiations in two contests of
Iran-Armenia gas pipeline construction and project of modernization of
the5th Thermal Power Plant in Hrazdan. But suddenly Russian “Gasprom”
state company appeared and wanted to participate in the contest with
a joint consortium. Russians simply blackmailed the RA authorities,
imposing certain conditions. They bought the 5 th Thermal Power Plant
by $250 million, at the expense of which the RA authorities will
manage to subsidize the expenses of gas users in case of rising in
gas price. As a result, the Russians didn’t only owned the 5th Thermal
Power Plant but were subsidized at our expense and strengthened their
position in the power market of Armenia. The blackmail wasn’t obvious,
that’s why the Armenian officials kept silence.
Vahagn Khachatrian, the RA first President’s advisor in economic
issues and NA former deputy gave another example. The latter reminded
that the Russian supply of energy for the atomic station was stopped
for the accumulated debts. We should remind that the RA authorities
had to give the Russians Sevan-Hrazdan cascade. “He knows very well,
that economic levers are the best way of political blackmail”, – Mr.
Khachatrian said alluding to Serge Sargsian. “That threat will always
be a danger for us”, – V. Khachatrian assured.
Economist Eduard Aghajanov gave one more example, reminding “Estate
instead of debt” agreement. “Russian entered its strategic partner’s
land, our home, and demanded our strategic objects instead of $97
million debt. While Russia ignored other debts to other countries,
$40million to Turkey, Syria etc.”, – Aghajanov said.
Stepan Grigorian noticed, “the Russians have taken our objects and
neither operate them nor make investments, what means those factories
have simply been conserved. It isn’t important for me the reasons
are political or economic. Why should I believe that The Russian
will act in the same way in case of selling the Armenian Railways,
Armenian-Iranian gas pipeline or “ArmenTel” or they will be operated
more effectively? And in general, what a way of answer it is “give
examples” when it is spoken about the security of Armenia,”- Mr.
Grigorian said.

2007 DRAFT STATE BUDGET DISCUSSED IN PARLIAMENT
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2006
The discussion of 2007 Draft State Budget continued in Parliament
today, APA reports.
Parliamentarian Jemil Hassanli said there is a monopoly in the country
and worries about the fees of agriculture commodities and unused
fields. Hassanli stressed that it is necessary to raise the salaries
of education staff. Ali Mesimov said strategy of expenditures should be
worked out. Ali Ahmadov also touched upon the state budget for the next
year and said Azerbaijan is on a new level of development. Ali Ahmadov
offered to take measures on strengthening struggle for inflation,
raise the salaries of education staff and solve young people’s flat
problem. Azer Emiraslanov said that Azerbaijan rates 64th for budget
growth. Guler Ahmadova complain that the ideological propaganda for
Garabagh is weak in Azerbaijan.
Seyavush Novruzov said conformation of Azerbaijani Army to NATO
standards will end next year. Ali Huseynov stressed Azerbaijan made
progress in the struggle for corruption. Yagub Mammadov also touched
upon the salary problems of education staff.
The discussion will be continued.