Azerbaijan moves to reaffirm control of Nagorno-Karabakh as the Armenian exodus slows to a trickle

Dabaghian Diana
Oct 2 2023

  • By The Associated Press

The last bus carrying ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh left the region Monday, completing a grueling weeklong exodus of over 100,000 people — more than 80% of its residents — after Azerbaijan reclaimed the area in a lightning military operation.

The bus that entered Armenia carried 15 passengers with serious illnesses and mobility problems, said Gegham Stepanyan, a human rights ombudsman for the former breakaway region that Azerbaijan calls Karabakh. He called for information about any other residents who want to leave but have had trouble doing so.

In a 24-hour campaign that began Sept. 19, the Azerbaijani army routed the region’s undermanned and outgunned Armenian forces, forcing them to capitulate. The separatist government then agreed to disband itself by the end of the year, but Azerbaijani authorities are already in charge of the region.

Azerbaijan Interior Ministry spokesman Elshad Hajiyev told The Associated Press on Monday the country’s police have established control of the entire region.

“Work is conducted to enforce law and order in the entire Karabakh region,” he said, adding that Azerbaijani police have moved to “protect the rights and ensure security of the Armenian population in accordance with Azerbaijan’s law.”

While Baku has pledged to respect the rights of ethnic Armenians, most of them hastily fled the region, fearing reprisals or losing the freedom to use their language and practice their religion and customs.

The Armenian government said Monday that 100,514 of the region’s estimated 120,000 residents have crossed into Armenia.

Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan said some people had died during the exhausting and slow journey over the single mountain road into Armenia that took as long as 40 hours. The exodus followed a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade of the region that left many suffering from malnutrition and lack of medicine.

Armenia alleged the closure denied basic food and fuel supplies to Nagorno-Karabakh, but Azerbaijan rejected the accusation, saying the Armenian government was using it for weapons shipments and argued the region could receive supplies through the Azerbaijani city of Aghdam — a solution long resisted by Nagorno-Karabakh authorities.

Sergey Astsetryan, 40, one of the last Nagorno-Karabakh residents to leave in his own vehicle Sunday, said some elderly people decided to stay, adding that others might return if they see it’s safe for ethnic Armenians under Azerbaijani rule.

“My father told me that he will return when he has the opportunity,” Astsetryan told reporters at a checkpoint on the Armenian border.

Azerbaijani authorities have arrested several former members of the separatist government and encouraged ethnic Azerbaijani residents who fled the area amid a war three decades ago to start moving back.

The streets of the regional capital, which is called Khankendi by Azerbaijan and Stepanakert by the Armenians, appeared empty and littered with trash, with doors of deserted businesses flung open.

The sign with the city’s Azerbaijani name was placed at one entrance and Azerbaijani police checkpoints were set up on the outskirts, with officers checking the trunks of cars.

Just outside the city, a herd of cows grazed in an abandoned orchard, and a small dog, which appeared to have been left behind by its owners, silently watched passing vehicles.

Russian peacekeeping troops could be seen on a balcony of one building in the city, and others were at their base outside it, where their vehicles were parked.

On Sunday, Azerbaijan prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for former Nagorno-Karabakh leader Arayik Harutyunyan, who led the region before stepping down at the beginning of September. Azerbaijani police arrested one of Harutyunyan’s former prime ministers, Ruben Vardanyan, on Wednesday as he tried to cross into Armenia.

“We put an end to the conflict,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a speech Monday. “We protected our dignity, we restored justice and international law.”

He added that “our agenda is peace in the Caucasus, peace in the region, cooperation, shared benefits, and today, we demonstrate that.”

After six years of separatist fighting ended in 1994 following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces, backed by Armenia, turning about 1 million of its Azerbaijani residents into refugees. After a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan took back back parts of the region in the south Caucasus Mountains, along with surrounding territory that Armenian forces had captured earlier.

Armenian authorities have accused the Russian peacekeepers, who were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the 2020 war, of standing idle and failing to stop the Azerbaijani onslaught. The accusations were rejected by Moscow, which argued that its troops didn’t have a mandate to intervene.

The mutual accusations have further strained the relations between Armenia and its longtime ally Russia, which has accused the Armenian government of a pro-Western tilt.

Allegations of shooting on both sides resumed Monday for the first time since a Sept. 20 cease-fire.

Russian Defense Ministry alleged Monday that its patrol in the region’s capital, conducted jointly with Azerbaijani forces, was fired at by a sniper, although it added that it wasn’t clear who was behind the attack.

Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’ defense ministries, in turn, traded accusations of cross-border shooting. The Armenian military accused Azerbaijan of shooting at one of its vehicles, killing one soldier and wounding two more in an area near the Armenia-Azerbaijani border in the Gegharkunik region of Armenia. The ministry said a car carrying food for soldiers came under fire, along with an ambulance. Azerbaijani forces said the Armenian military opened fire at their positions in the Kalbajar region, which lies between the north of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan alleged Thursday that the exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to “a direct act of ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.”

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry strongly rejected Pashinyan’s accusations, arguing their departure was “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.”

Speaking to the AP in Lachin, the Azerbaijani town that had been controlled by separatists for nearly three decades until Baku’s forces reclaimed it in 2020, Solmaz Abbasova, 67, said returning home was a dream that sustained her family since the earlier exodus.

“It was a boundless happiness to come back home after 31 years and see the things which were so dear — the land, the river, the forest and the lake,” Abbasova said, adding that her husband and son were with her but their daughter died before she could return.

She said the Armenians are leaving the region safely by their own choice, unlike her family and other Azerbaijani refugees, adding that many were killed as they tried to leave.

“I feel sorry for simple Armenians leaving Karabakh now, but there is a big difference: They and their children aren’t being hunted and killed as they killed our refugees,” she said. “They have a choice whether to stay or leave calmly.”

Azerbaijan’s presidential office said the country has presented a plan for the “reintegration” of ethnic Armenians in the region, noting that “the equality of rights and freedoms, including security, is guaranteed to everyone regardless of their ethnic, religious or linguistic affiliation.”

It said the plan envisages improving infrastructure to bring it line with the rest of the country and offers tax exemptions, subsidies, low-interest loans and other incentives. The statement added Azerbaijani authorities have held three rounds of talks with representatives of the region’s ethnic Armenian population and will continue the discussions.

Associated Press writers Aida Sultanova in Shusha, Azerbaijan, and Avet Demourian in Yerevan, Armenia, contributed.

https://www.beloitdailynews.com/news/national-news/armenian-exodus-from-nagorno-karabakh-ebbs-as-azerbaijan-moves-to-reaffirm-control/article_b1facbba-3fec-5548-bde9-17d99c268934.html

Inside the Matenadaran, the Stone Fortress Protecting the World’s Most Precious Manuscripts

Boshkezenian Garik
Popular Mechanics
Sept 29 2023

Since the Middle Ages, scriptoria throughout the world have preserved manuscripts for future generations. Armenia’s Matenadaran continues that tradition.

BY DARREN ORFPUBLISHED: SEP 29, 2023

Ancient manuscripts connect us to our distant past. Without them, we wouldn’t be able to understand our histories, traditions, and knowledge gleaned from many lifetimes of experience. But there’s a big problem: paper and parchment aren’t known for longevity. The reason we can read about the plays of ancient Greeks, understand the wisdom of Eastern philosophies, or even glimpse the yellowing founding documents of entire nations is thanks to legions of archivists throughout history who’ve meticulously restored, protected, and preserved these old (and prone to crumbling) manuscripts for future generations.

Throughout the Middle Ages, scriptoria around the world served as repositories of human knowledge, and in Yerevan, Armenia, the museum and research institute known as the Matenadaran continues that tradition.

Visit the Matenadaran today and you’re greeted by a grand, fortress-like building constructed from gray basalt stone. At the building’s entrance is a large statue of Mesrop Mashtots, a medieval Armenian linguist who’s credited with developing the Armenian alphabet. This imposing structure denotes the importance of the delicate treasures found inside—23,000 manuscripts, with some dating back 1,500 years. Although the Matenadaran is home to the largest collection of Armenian manuscripts in the world, it also houses ancient texts from other civilizations throughout history.

“Matenadaran means the ‘repository of manuscripts,’” Vahe Torosyan, a scientist secretary at the Matenadaran, tells Popular Mechanics. “However, the Matenadaran is not only a storehouse of manuscripts but a research institute and a museum where manuscripts are stored, cared for, restored, studied scientifically, and displayed.”

Albert Mityaev

Restoring these manuscripts requires an intense level of artistry and dedication. Before restorers can even begin repairing battered manuscripts, they first need to clean the surfaces of pages and miniatures (the small illustrations that often accompany medieval texts). This means removing any dust, candle wax, insects, dirt, stains and more that might’ve adhered to the brittle pages over the centuries. Paper and pigments are also examined under a microscope to make sure that paint layers are solid before cleaning can begin.

Restorers then use a special, handmade Japanese paper created from the bark of mulberry trees to repair the pages, whether a small tear or a gaping rip. Using this specialized paper—in various thicknesses and shades—restorers can create a seamless transition between the original document and the restored parts.

“Japanese paper is a unique material and has a special structure,” Gayane Eliazyan, head of the department of restoration, tells Popular Mechanics. “The edges of the paper have long fibers that are easy to connect with the original paper, and the passage from the original manuscript material to the Japanese paper occurs very smoothly.”

Although preserving ancient texts is a centuries-old profession, 21st century technology provides the ultimate protection for these fragile objects. When a document contains undertext, which is writing that’s been replaced by existing text, the Matenadaran uses multi-spectral imaging to capture the manuscript in 28 distinct frames—each frame representing a range of the visual spectrum as well as UV and infrared light. These various light spectra can capture the hidden words hidden beneath the work.

With these digital recreations along with digital scans of other manuscripts, physical texts never leave the safety of the Matenadaran itself.

Preserving this book block is only one part of the restoration process; the restorers also bring that same level of exacting attention to mending a manuscript’s binding, leather cover, and endband (the woven decorative parts found at the upper and lower edges of the book’s spine).

Eliazyan says that the restoration department of the Matenadaran also has a biological laboratory, and like many laboratories around the world, it faces funding challenges. The department needs new equipment to keep up with new restoration techniques.

As Armenian universities still do not have educational programs for certifying restorers, the Matenadaran serves as a teaching center and school for this specialization. Eliazyan hopes that continued support from grantors or the Armenian government will help train the next generations of specialists eager to be keepers of the heritage of human knowledge—past and present.

Darren lives in Portland, has a cat, and writes/edits about sci-fi and how our world works. You can find his previous stuff at Gizmodo and Paste if you look hard enough. 

 

Nagorno-Karabakh’s tragedy has echoes of Europe’s dark past. But a remedy lies in Europe too

Edgar Tavakalian
The Guardian, UK
Oct 2 2023

Nathalie Tocci



As more than 100,000 people flee to avoid rule by Azerbaijan, it’s time for the EU to consider the prospect of membership for Armenia

The president of the self-declared “Republic of Artsakh”, Samvel Shahramanyan, has dissolved all institutions of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and almost all Karabakh Armenians are now thought to fled the enclave being reintegrated into Azerbaijan. What lessons can be drawn from the tragic epilogue of this three decades-long secessionist conflict in Europe?

The images of long queues of cars escaping mountainous Karabakh to neighbouring Armenia bring back dark memories of ethnic cleansing that Europe thought had been relegated to its past. Just as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its imperial follies, trenches and wanton destruction, catapulted Europe back into the harrowing days of the world wars, the flight of ethnic Armenians rewinds us to the Balkans of the 1990s – or even further back, to the end of the Ottoman empire during the first world war.

To be clear: there is no question that Nagorno-Karabakh lies within the officially recognised borders of Azerbaijan. Europe and the international community have never questioned this, and the war in Ukraine has highlighted once again the significance of sovereignty and territorial integrity as the linchpins of international law. As such, there are no legally sound reasons to oppose the reintegration of Karabakh into Azerbaijan. It is also important to underline that the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, has not ordered the 120,000 local Armenians to leave, let alone pointed a gun at their heads. Baku has offered to extend citizenship to all Karabakh Armenians who lay down their weapons and the political struggle for independence.


Yet beyond form there’s content, which points dramatically towards yet another case of ethnic cleansing in Europe. Aliyev may be willing to reintegrate Karabakh Armenians, but Azerbaijan is not a democracy. Being reintegrated into a country in which individual human rights and fundamental freedoms are not protected – let along group rights, which are highly unlikely to be granted to Armenians – is hardly an attractive proposition.

Furthermore, hatred between Armenians and Azerbaijanis runs deep, far deeper than that between Georgians and Abkhazians or Ossetians, or Moldovans and Transnistrians. While distinct from their relationship with Azerbaijan, this hatred is tied to the even deeper wounds surrounding the 1915 Armenian genocide, unrecognised by Turkey, which has welcomed Azerbaijan’s move in the enclave. While incomparable in violence and magnitude, the exodus of Karabakh Armenians from Turkic-Azerbaijan will probably end up being woven into a larger and older story of Armenian victimhood and dispossession. Far from healing, Armenian wounds are bleeding again.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has seen a dramatic reversal of the tide. The 1988-94 war with Azerbaijan was squarely won by Armenia, with Russia’s support. This led not only to the establishment of the breakaway statelet of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also to the Armenian occupation of seven further regions of Azerbaijan, surrounding Karabakh, and the displacement of 1 million Azeris from their homes. For 30 years, Karabakh Armenians were intransigent, unwilling to move an inch on their demands for self-determination through independence. Armenia proper, up until the election of Nikol Pashinyan in 2018, was ruled by a Karabakh clan, in what appeared to be a clear case of the tail wagging the dog.

I recall during my first visit to Nagorno-Karabakh in 2001 being surprised to learn how little, if any, room for peace negotiations there was. Even then, before Azerbaijan’s oil boom, the profits of which were heavily invested in its defence industry, it seemed clear that Karabakh would never become an independent state. But rather than facing reality and using their temporary leverage to secure a victor’s peace, Armenians assumed they would enjoy the upper hand for ever. For decades, they didn’t budge on their demands for independence, and now tragically end up displaced and dispossessed.

It is a lesson that other conflict parties elsewhere should take note of. Even in conflicts where power is heavily skewed to one side, no one can know what the future holds. In the Middle East, Israelis have entrenched their land grab of the occupied Palestinian territories, exploiting their military might and unconditional US and European support. They now feel even stronger as Arab countries normalise relations with Israel, with the big prize of Saudi Arabia finally within reach. Yet global power balances are changing in ways that will profoundly affect the Middle East. This could further strengthen Israel, but it could weaken it too. Israelis would do well to learn the lessons of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Back to Nagorno-Karabakh, alongside Azerbaijan’s rearmament leading to the 2020 war – in which Baku retook control of the occupied regions around Karabakh – the 2023 epilogue has been triggered also by Russia’s abandonment of Armenia. Here too, Yerevan and Stepanakert, the breakaway capital, thought Moscow would never give up on Christian Armenians in favour of Muslim Azerbaijanis. They were wrong. Russia, whose “peacekeepers” were present in the region, did nothing over the 10 months of Baku’s blockade of the Lachin corridor connecting Karabakh with Armenia, depriving Karabakh residents of food and medicine. It simply turned the other way as Azerbaijan made its final military move to retake total control of the enclave.

Vladimir Putin abandoned Karabakh Armenians to their fate partly because he has bigger fish to fry in his failing invasion of Ukraine, and partly out of spite towards Pashinyan, who has sought to move his country towards Europe and the west. In a well-rehearsed playbook, Moscow hopes to regain control over Armenia by triggering Pashinyan’s fall from power, paving the way to a more congenial government in Yerevan. What easier way to do this than stand back, allowing Armenia to be defeated, and hope this will trigger regime change there? Indeed, the last weeks have seen crowds of angry Armenians calling on Pashinyan to resign.

Yet at the same time, Armenians are clear-eyed and well aware that without Russia’s abandonment, things would not have turned out this way. Their sense of betrayal by Moscow is deep. Both Washington and Brussels are seeking to fill that void and show solidarity towards Armenians, with USAid chief Samantha Power’s recent trip to Yerevan being testimony to this. It will take more than words and cash to consolidate Armenia’s path to democracy. It will require a sustained commitment over the years, first and foremost by Europeans. As the EU reopens its enlargement file through the accession process towards Ukraine, Moldova and potentially Georgia, there’s no better way to do so – were Yerevan to signal its interest – than to offer the prospect of EU membership to Armenia as well.

  • Nathalie Tocci is a Guardian columnist. She is director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs and an honorary professor at the University of Tübingen

 

Nagorno-Karabakh: How the conflict is affecting global energy dynamics

Emil Lazarian
The National, UAE
Oct 2 2023
Robin Mills
Oct 02, 2023
Powered by automated translation

Frozen conflicts sometimes rekindle but rarely melt away entirely.

Azerbaijan may have just achieved that, retaking the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. Defeat for Russia’s position in the Caucasus and a success for Turkey reconfigures power in this critical region of energy transit.

Nagorno-Karabakh, the “mountainous black garden”, was transferred to the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan by Joseph Stalin in 1923 despite its majority Armenian population.

After the collapse of the USSR, Armenia seized control of the territory and the interposed areas of Azerbaijan, with Russian support, in a protracted war from 1991 to 1993. Oddly, Iran also backed Yerevan, possibly fearing ethnic separatism among its large Azeri population. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is himself half-Azeri.

The self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh became one of several disputed lands around the former Soviet bloc, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and Transnistria in Moldova. This Russian playbook was then revived in its seizure in 2014 of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.

But landlocked Armenia, with its population of under 3 million, was always going to struggle to hold on against Azerbaijan, with more than 10 million people and strong oil and gas revenue. It missed the chance for a favourable diplomatic solution. In 2020, Azerbaijan waged a short war. It recaptured areas and reopened the Zangezur Corridor to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

At last September’s Shanghai Co-operation Organisation meeting in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, Central Asia leaders showed a marked lack of respect for Vladimir Putin. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev even felt able to meet Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also expressed support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Although he offered major diplomatic concessions to Azerbaijan, with Russian forces floundering in their war, Moscow needing to keep Azerbaijan friendly to safeguard its route from Iran, and Turkey in a strong diplomatic position, Baku decided it was time to strike again.

It appears to have regained control over all of Karabakh. Most of the population have fled and Artsakh’s government said it would dissolve itself. Russian “peacekeepers” remain, but their purpose now is unclear. As Nakhichivan adjoins Turkey, there is now a land bridge from Istanbul to Baku, and, across the Caspian, a route to the Turkic states of Central Asia.

Key oil and gas pipelines run from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey and on to world markets.

Kazakhstan is seeking to expand its exports of oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to diminish its reliance on the Caspian pipeline to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, worryingly close to the fighting in Ukraine, which suffered a shutdown last July allegedly for storm damage.

The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (Tanap) opened in 2018, connecting to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline which in 2020 began supplying Greece, Albania and Italy.

In January 2021, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan finally resolved to develop the cross-border Dostluk (Friendship) oil and gasfield in the middle of the Caspian Sea.

That could, in turn, pave the way for the long-awaited Trans-Caspian pipeline to bring some of Turkmenistan’s gas resources westward.

Russian oil major Lukoil, which seemed likely to lead the development of Dostluk, may now be pushed out.

In July 2022, the European Commission signed a declaration with Baku to “aspire” to increase gas imports to at least 20 billion cubic metres per year by 2027, with current capacity at half that. In August, Adnoc agreed to buy a stake in the Absheron gasfield in the Caspian, operated by France’s TotalEnergies, which will feed an expansion of Tanap.

Turkey, which for long had minimal hydrocarbon resources, is now developing two sizeable fields in the Black Sea, and its state gas company Botaş just agreed to supply Romania.

Azerbaijan is also looking into green hydrogen production from wind and solar power, in co-operation with Masdar.

READ MORE
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Armenia calls on Security Council to send UN peacekeeping mission to Nagorno-Karabakh

This is all very welcome to Europe as it seeks to replace Russian gas. But it means Brussels has limited diplomatic leverage over issues such as the rights of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

It has now exchanged reliance on Russia with a troubling need for Turkey as a transit state. Though a Nato member, Turkey under President Erdogan has not shied away from controversies.

Last Monday, Mr Erdogan and Mr Aliyev attended the groundbreaking for a new pipeline to supply Nakhchivan. That the two presidents would appear for the opening of what in itself is a small project signals Turkey’s aim to develop itself into a gas corridor, and its alignment in that with Baku. Mr Erdogan was explicit: “I’m very pleased to be with all of you as we connect Nakhchivan with the Turkish world.”

Gas from Iraq’s Kurdistan region would have to pass through Turkey, which is also a possible route for the bounty of the eastern Mediterranean. The shutdown of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline since March after an unfavourable arbitration ruling against Ankara is another reminder of its willingness to play tough.

As a transit state, Turkey has arguably even more leverage than a supplier such as Russia, since its direct earnings are relatively small, and it can therefore be more willing to lose them.

This realignment in the Caucasus also worries Iran, particularly given Azerbaijan’s links with Israel. While the EU is indecisive, America is focused elsewhere, Russia is struggling to cling on in Ukraine and Iran remains economically isolated, Turkey has seized its opportunity. Iran previously supplied some gas to Nakhichivan and Armenia, while Turkey is its most important export market. That is now all under threat.

Now, will Azerbaijan’s victory finally bring peace to the South Caucasus? Will parties to any of the other frozen conflicts take advantage of Moscow’s weakness, and reheat them? Will Turkey finally manage what it could not from the early 1990s, and build real physical links to the Central Asian states? And will Europe manage to integrate these changes into its energy security strategy, without compromising its ethical or environmental principles? This short war raises more difficult questions than it answers.

Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

 

Turkey’s hypocrisy: Like Azerbaijan, the Cyprus impasse must also be resolved with a one-state solution

Emil Lazarian
eKathimerini
Greece – Oct 1 2023
OPINION
George Monastiriakos

01.10.2023 • 19:46

State sovereignty is the core principle of international relations. Despite originating at the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, the pillar of the rules-based international system was only etched in stone with the birth of the United Nations after World War II.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. It was occupied by Armenia during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in the 1990s, so that the Karabakh Armenians could build their own state within Azerbaijan. Baku recently accomplished a historic feat by dismantling the so-called Republic of Artsakh and restoring its territorial integrity after three long decades of Armenian military occupation.
 
Although the Armenian National Congress of America (ANCA) spearheaded the campaign to save the separatist project, the state of Armenia itself resorted to mixed messaging throughout the crisis. For months, Yerevan modified its message to suit its intended audience. Armenia often took one position with the West, a different posture with its treaty ally Russia, and a contradictory stance with the Armenian public. While clearly a sign of desperation, it is also evidence that Yerevan’s foreign policy is subject to significant constraints.

Evidently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government is in an undesirable position. From a geopolitical perspective, Armenia must deal with fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while balancing Yerevan’s dependence on Moscow for its national security. In terms of domestic political pressure, nationalist segments of the Armenian public believe that Pashinyan’s government betrayed the Karabakh Armenians. To make matters worse, some of his constituents are parroting Putin’s propagandists in Russia and calling for a military coup to overthrow Armenia’s democratically elected government.

This much is certain: The political, diplomatic, economic, military and human costs of maintaining the separatist project in Nagorno-Karabakh became too expensive for Armenia. Thirty years came and went. Tens of thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani lives were sacrificed on the altar of Artsakh. Hundreds of thousands more were uprooted by and on both sides. Armenia suffered a decisive defeat in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, and the outcome of a third full-scale conflict would’ve been even more devastating for Yerevan and Stepanakert. All so that 120,000 Karabakh Armenians can maintain an isolated pseudo-state on another country’s sovereign territory. 

Through it all, Armenia remained blockaded between a hostile Turkey to the west and a revanchist Azerbaijan to the east. Therefore, Yerevan developed a dependence on a repressive Iran to the south and an even more aggressive Russia to the north. Unfortunately, Armenia’s existential partnerships with Washington’s sworn enemies limited Yerevan’s options for cooperation with the West – its long-term objective – to performative acts of solidarity. This consisted mainly of thoughts and prayers to satisfy domestic voters in the Armenian diaspora but accomplished little of substance or consequence.

Meanwhile, despite enjoying three decades of de facto independence, Artsakh itself only gained recognition from the Russian separatist states of Transnistria (Moldova), South Ossetia (Georgia), and Abkhazia (Georgia). As far as international legitimacy is concerned, that isn’t exactly stellar company. Yerevan had decades to formally recognize Artsakh, or even annex it illegally. It did none of the above. Instead, Armenia trapped Artsakh in a legal and diplomatic gray zone by providing it with de facto support while accepting Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Unfortunately, the right to self-determination is not enough to guarantee state survival in the international context of anarchy. States, and especially breakaway republics, are war-prone machines that must either form alliances with stronger countries or develop the hard power required to deter, defend, and balance against would-be aggressors. Consider the Republic of Kosovo as a successful example. The separatist experiment in Nagorno-Karabakh failed, at least in part, because Azerbaijan held the legal and diplomatic high ground while Artsakh chose the wrong friends and lacked international recognition. 

Artsakh’s insurance policy, the Russian-allied state of Armenia itself, was bereft of the economic weight, diplomatic capital, and hard power required to maintain the status quo against an increasingly wealthy, well-connected and powerful Azerbaijan. Caught between a rock and a hard place, the heavy cost associated with maintaining Artsakh’s de facto independence outweighed the perceived benefits incurred by Yerevan over time. In other words, dependence on Russia and Iran, isolated from Turkey and Azerbaijan, and thoughts and prayers from the West. 

By acknowledging that this was totally unsustainable and contrary to the long-term national interest of Armenia, Pashinyan has set the stage for historic peace-building initiatives that will impact both the South Caucasus and Armenia positively for decades to come. With Nagorno-Karabakh liberated, Azerbaijan must now withdraw from the territory it occupies in the state of Armenia itself. In turn, Yerevan and Baku can finally recognize the inviolability of their respective borders. A peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is contingent on this. 

After decades of hostility, the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey is also likely to follow. Together, Baku, Ankara and Yerevan can finally expand the Middle Corridor connecting China and Central Asia to Europe through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan and Turkey. Hundreds of millions of people across Eurasia will benefit from this ambitious economic and infrastructure project. Among other things, it will stabilize the South Caucasus, integrate the region’s economies, and shorten supply chains. A positive development for the neighborhood, no matter how they sell it.

Evidently, the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity was underwritten by indispensable allies like Turkey. The Turkish Armed Forces trained the Azerbaijani military according to NATO doctrine. While Turkish-built Bayraktar drones ensured Baku’s aerial superiority over Yerevan, information provided by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) solidified Azerbaijan’s operational advantage in the theater of war. Naturally, Ankara took both credit for and pride in Azerbaijan’s victories in 2020 and 2023.

This begs several questions: How hypocritical is it that Turkey supported and celebrated the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity while maintaining its 49-year-long occupation of the Republic of Cyprus in contravention of countless United Nations Security Council Resolutions? How sanctimonious is it that Ankara advocates for a two-state solution to resolve the Cyprus impasse while actively campaigning for a one-state solution in Azerbaijan? How inconsistent is it that Ankara publicly criticized Yerevan, and even withheld establishing diplomatic relations with it due to its support for the separatist project in Nagorno-Karabakh, when Turkey created the blueprint for Armenia’s behavior? 

Like the Karabakh Armenians, Ankara also established a de facto state, the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), in the occupied third of the island. Despite Turkey’s many attempts to normalize the TRNC by including it in international forums like the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), the only UN member-state to officially recognize the separatist entity is Turkey. I have visited the TRNC myself: The enclave remains isolated and impoverished due to Ankara’s own doing.

Like Armenia, Turkey also cited concerns regarding the safety of Turkish Cypriots as the reason for its initial military operation and subsequent occupation. Unlike the Armenians of Karabakh, however, Turkish Cypriots are not at risk of genocide at the hands of Greek Cypriots in the year 2023. Far from it. In fact, thousands of Turkish Cypriots from the so-called TRNC cross into the Republic of Cyprus to work for and with Greek Cypriots, where they experience better working conditions and earn significantly higher wages. While some Turkish Cypriots also hold Republic of Cyprus citizenship, all Cypriots – from both the Turkish and Greek communities – seek to end the nearly five-decades-long impasse.

The reunification of the Republic of Cyprus is long overdue. In contrast to Nagorno-Karabakh, there is no military option to resolve the Cyprus problem. Only a diplomatic solution. Despite failing to lead the world on this issue for nearly half a century, Brussels must remind Turkey of a fundamental truth: Even after Ankara fulfills all the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey’s decades-long occupation of Cyprus, and its support for the separatist entity in the northern third of the island, will remain a roadblock to joining the European Union. 

This, more than anything else, will continue preventing Turkey from achieving its long-term potential, and depriving Turkish youth of a brighter and more prosperous future. Even worse, no one suffers more from Turkey’s irrational behavior in the Republic of Cyprus than the Turkish-Cypriot community – the people Ankara claims to be protecting – themselves.

President Erdogan is a commanding figure at the head of a powerful state. Instead of following in Armenia’s footsteps, isolating the Turkish-Cypriot community and limiting Turkey’s long-term potential, Ankara’s thinking should be consistent on both Azerbaijan and Cyprus: Respect the core of international law, adhere to the principle of sovereignty, join the international community in recognizing the Republic of Cyprus and restore its territorial integrity. 

There is no better way for Erdogan to cement his legacy as the most consequential Turkish leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, as an architect of peace in the East Mediterranean, and as the president who secured Turkey’s long-sought membership in the European Union. Wishful thinking or not, stranger things have happened.

George Monastiriakos is an adjunct professor of law at the University of Ottawa and a fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy. You can read his published works on his website.

Armenia Urges EU to Sanction Azerbaijan, Warns of Further Attack

Christine Harutyunian
Oct 2 2023
By Reuters

By Andrew Gray

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Armenia urged the European Union on Monday to sanction Azerbaijan for its military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and warned that Baku could soon attack Armenia itself unless the West takes firm action.

Tigran Balayan, Armenia’s envoy to the EU, listed possible measures such as a price cap on Azerbaijani oil and gas and the suspension of EU talks on closer relations with Baku. He also urged the West to deliver “bold” security assistance to Armenia.

“It’s not only the opinion of the Armenian government, but also of many experts – also some of the EU member states – that an attack on Armenia proper is imminent,” Balayan told Reuters in an interview in Brussels.

Azerbaijani forces took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave on its territory populated by ethnic Armenians, in a lightning operation last month, triggering an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians in less than a week.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing – a charge denied by Baku, which has insisted the enclave’s Armenians were welcome to remain in the territory. Baku has also insisted it has no intention of attacking Armenia itself.

But Balayan said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s assurances could not be trusted, noting European officials have declared he broke promises not to attack Nagorno-Karabakh.

He said the EU had many tools to pressure Aliyev – and Nagorno-Karabakh had paid a heavy price because it had not used any of them so far.

“The failure of … employing this toolbox resulted in the ethnic cleansing of 100,000 to 120,000 of the indigenous Armenian population, including my own family, from their ancestral lands,” said Balayan, Armenia’s ambassador-designate to the EU.

Senior EU officials, and leaders of many of the bloc’s member countries, have condemned Azerbaijan’s actions. But the EU has so far taken little in the way of concrete measures in response to the crisis, beyond allocating humanitarian aid.

Diplomats say EU members are struggling to find a consensus. Some, such as France and the Netherlands, want to at least consider tough measures, while others such as Hungary and Romania are reluctant, they say.

The EU’s search for a response is complicated by its moves to rely more on Azerbaijani oil and gas as it has pivoted away from Russian energy due to Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Aliyev in Baku last year to sign a memorandum of understanding on energy, and declared Azerbaijan to be a “crucial partner”.

But Balayan insisted the EU had real leverage on energy, as Baku relies heavily on European countries as customers.

GRANADA MEETING

He said a meeting expected this week at a summit in Granada, Spain, between Armenian Prime Minister Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Aliyev, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Charles Michel would only yield results if the EU was tough with Aliyev.

“Unless there are certain red lines put in front of Aliyev personally for not keeping his word … it will be in vain again,” he said.

Balayan voiced fears that Azerbaijan would use force to establish a land corridor through Armenian territory to the exclave of Nakhchivan, which would also provide a link to Turkey, Baku’s ally.

Azerbaijan insisted last week it did not intend to take any such action.

But Balayan said Azerbaijan’s military goals could extend even beyond Nakhchivan, noting Aliyev had made comments that asserted Armenian territory was formerly part of Azerbaijan.

He said Armenia had been left exposed in security terms as its traditional ally Russia had not delivered hundreds of millions of dollars in weapons orders.

“We are in a very vulnerable position,” he said.

Balayan declined to specify what kind of security assistance Aremenia wanted, saying that was a matter of technical experts.

(Reporting by Andrew Gray; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

Hungarian minister opened the gates of Hell in Azerbaijan

Antonian Lara
Daily News, Hungary
Oct 2 2023
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said reports of renewed tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia with regard to deliveries of humanitarian aid were “unsettling” in a post on Facebook on Saturday. 

“Hungary stands on the side of peace and urges an end to the suffering of people who have lived through a long war. I informed both of my counterparts, Jeyhun Bayramov, the Azeri foreign minister, and Ararat Mirzoyan, the Armenian foreign minister, by phone on that position yesterday evening,” he said.
“Hungary will always take a position in support of peaceful resolution, territorial integrity and respect for sovereignty. We welcomed the peace agreement and hope that its implementation will save many, many people from suffering,” he added. Szijjarto acknowledged the roles of international organisations, especially the Red Cross, in assisting in the situation.
Gates of Hell symbolically opened

In July, the Hungarian Hell Energy Group started a 211 million-dollar investment in Azerbaijan to build a factory in the Caucasian country. Mr Szijjártó said the business is part of the foundation of the success story between Hungary and Azerbaijan, index.hu wrote. The company’s traffic grew by 50 pc in 2022, and 2/3rd of the purchases take place on the international market. He called the investment another bridge between the two countries then.
 

Armenpress: Armenia requests ICJ to indicate provisional measures against Azerbaijan

Maral Takmazian

 22:25, 29 September 2023

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 29, ARMENPRESS. The Republic of Armenia, referring to Article 41 of the ICJ Statute and Article 73 of the Rules of Court, submitted a request to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) yesterday for the indication of provisional measures against Azerbaijan, “to preserve and protect rights enshrined in the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (‘CERD’)”.

Armenia requests the Court to indicate the following provisional measures, and to reaffirm Azerbaijan’s obligations under the Orders it has rendered in this case, in particular those of 7 December 2021 and 22 February 2023:

“1) Azerbaijan shall refrain from taking any measures which might entail breaches of its obligations under the CERD;

“2) Azerbaijan shall refrain from taking any actions directly or indirectly aimed at or having the effect of displacing the remaining ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, or preventing the safe and expeditious return to their homes of persons displaced in the course of the recent military attack including those who have fled to Armenia or third States, while permitting those who wish to leave Nagorno-Karabakh to do so without any hindrance;

“3) Azerbaijan shall withdraw all military and law-enforcement personnel from all civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh occupied as a result of its armed attack on 19 September 2023;

“4) Azerbaijan shall facilitate, and refrain from placing any impediment on, the access of the United Nations and its specialized agencies to the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, and shall not interfere with their activities in any way;

“5) Azerbaijan shall facilitate, and refrain from placing any impediment on, the ability of the International Committee of the Red Cross to provide humanitarian aid to the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, and shall cooperate with the International Committee of the Red Cross to address the other consequences of the recent conflict;

“6) Azerbaijan shall immediately facilitate the full restoration of public utilities, including gas and electricity, to Nagorno-Karabakh, and shall refrain from disrupting them in the future;

“7) Azerbaijan shall refrain from taking punitive actions against the current or former political representatives or military personnel of Nagorno-Karabakh;

“8) Azerbaijan shall not alter or destroy any monument commemorating the 1915 Armenian genocide or any other monument or Armenian cultural artefact or site present in Nagorno-Karabakh;

“9) Azerbaijan shall recognize and give effect to civil registers, identity documents and property titles and registers established by the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh, and shall not destroy or confiscate such registers and documents;

“10) Azerbaijan shall submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give effect to this Order within one month, as from the date of this Order, and thereafter every three months, until a final decision on the case is rendered by the Court.”

"A gross political mistake by the Karabakh Armenian community". View from Baku

Ekmekjian Janet
Sept 29 2023
  • JAMnews
  • Baku

Haji Namazov on self-dissolution of unrecognized NKR

In two months, the unrecognized NKR will become history. The Armenian population of Karabakh is leaving the region en masse and heading to Armenia. Political observer Haji Namazov calls this “a gross political mistake of the Karabakh Armenian community”. “After all, if we are quite objective, no one threatened them after the end of the counter-terrorist operation,” he says.

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According Namazov, “the decree of the leader of the separatist regime in Karabakh on self-dissolution was one of the demands of official Baku. By accepting this condition, the unrecognized republic was able to stop the counter-terrorist operation, which could have ended deplorably for all its so-called leaders.”

“It is true that since yesterday some political analysts have been trying to convey to their public that Shahramanyan’s decree was illegal, saying that the independence of the separatist regime was declared by referendum, and supposedly should be also abolished by referendum.

This narrative did not appear by chance, as if with a plan for the future. But it is doomed to fail. Why? If the Armenians had remained on the territory of Karabakh in the number of several tens of thousands of people, then perhaps, decades later, the conflict could have arisen again. But most of the Armenian community decided to leave for the country of which they are citizens,” Namazov says.

The self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is not recognized by any country in the world, will cease to exist

“This is a gross political mistake, which will have an effect on the Armenians of Karabakh. After all, to be quite objective, no one threatened them after the counter-terrorist operation was over. Armenians lived quietly side by side with Azerbaijani policemen and soldiers. But it’s all over now. The Armenian community in its overwhelming majority decided to leave Karabakh and move away.

I will not be original if I assume that a small part of them will return in the near future — within 2-3 years. It is not easy to get used to living in a different, unfamiliar place. Especially if you know for sure that, contrary to official propaganda in Armenia, there is nothing threatening you in Karabakh.

What did the Armenian community of Karabakh get as a result of the “miatsum” announced in 1988? Nothing. Figuratively, it can be compared to Alexander Pushkin’s well-known fairy tale about the fisherman and a fish. Only at the end of the fairy tale the old woman is left at a broken trough; in our case there is not even this trough.

In other words, what started with a huge political mistake ended with another, no less gross political mistake,” he said in conversation with our correspondent.

Ruben Vardanyan, former State Minister of the unrecognized NKR, sentenced to 4 months’ imprisonment for the period of investigation

“As for the very process of Karabakh Armenians moving to Armenia, the falsification is visible to the naked eye.

So far, official Baku has not publicized the number of Karabakh residents who crossed the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia these days. But experts are analyzing with interest the figures appearing in Armenian sources.

So, the number of Karabakh Armenians who moved to Armenia is growing with enviable stability. This growth has neither decreased nor increased over the past few days. Although we know for sure that on September 27 at noon Azerbaijani border guards closed the Lachin checkpoint for a short period of time to honor the memory of those killed in the second Karabakh war. But even this had no effect on the rate of growth.

It is clear that Armenia achieves two goals at once by this. First, for a long time Armenian officials and sources have been saying that 120 thousand Armenians lived in Karabakh. Although Baku and Russian peacekeepers have mentioned other figures, much smaller – from 30 to 50 thousand. Secondly, the greater the number of displaced Armenian citizens, the more assistance will be provided by international humanitarian organizations and other countries that sympathize with Yerevan,” Namazov said.

Talking to Deutsche Welle, Hikmet Hajiyev said that the relocation of Armenians from Karabakh is “a personal and individual decision” of the residents

“The predictions of those experts who believed that Azerbaijani security forces would not be able to enter Khankendi have not quite come true. Yesterday and today everyone saw video footage of Azerbaijani Interior Ministry vehicles moving through the streets of the center of the former NKAO.

I think that the process of establishing the power of official Baku on the whole territory of Karabakh will not be delayed even until January 1, when formally there will be no separatist regime. Because the situation is changing hour by hour, and I am sure that in early October the flag of Azerbaijan will be flying over the departmental buildings in Khankendi.”

https://jam-news.net/a-gross-political-mistake-by-the-karabakh-armenian-community-view-from-baku/