Karabakh crisis: UN response continues

UN News
Oct 5 2023
5 October 2023Humanitarian Aid

UN teams on the ground in Armenia are providing vital support to help address the needs of over 100,000 refugees who recently fled the Karabakh region.

The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, has continued its aid efforts by distributing essential relief items.  

UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said a shipment of 180 foldable beds, hundreds of foam mattresses, beds, pillows, blankets, and more, transported by some 16 UNHCR-backed trucks, arrived on Thursday.

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) has also been actively distributing dignity kits to assist women and girls in maintaining proper hygiene after their displacement.  

So far, approximately 13,000 kits have been distributed.  

Additionally, the agency is actively supporting local service providers in preventing gender-based violence and providing training to partners on survivor-centred support.

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has conducted training for social workers specializing in child protection within emergency settings.  

It has established the first of two planned support centres in the primary municipality receiving refugees, Goris.  

UNICEF is also working to improve psychological support services and child protection case management.

Likewise, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) is investing in green energy solutions to meet the needs of vulnerable refugees and their host communities.  

These solutions include the implementation of solar panels, water heaters, and bio-toilets. 

Opinion: Why no one should believe reports of Armenians’ ‘voluntary’ exodus from Artsakh

Los Angeles Times
Oct 5 2023

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Over the last two weeks, thousands of vehicles have lined a serpentine road stretching for three miles in the South Caucuses Mountains near the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. At times, the multitude of cars was so dense that it could be seen from space. The travelers — refugees — survived extreme deprivation for nine months and a harrowing military assault against their homeland.

The road, known as the Lachin Corridor, is the sole escape route out of the Armenian Republic of Artsakh, also called Nagorno-Karabakh, situated on territory Azerbaijan claims is its own. As of Monday, more than 100,000 Artsakh Armenians, the Indigenous people of the region, had fled from the land their ancestors lived on for millennia. They face an uncertain future.

WORLD & NATION

Oct. 5, 2023

For Armenians around the globe, satellite imagery of the Lachin Corridor exodus raises a historical specter. It echoes photography documenting death marches across the Syrian desert during the 1915 Armenian genocide, proof of forcible expulsion and ethnic cleansing.

For media outlets and global actors who take their cues from Azerbaijan’s officialdom, the images tell a markedly different story. They depict not expulsion but the voluntary departure of separatists from a breakaway region who have chosen to flee, after the restoration of Azerbaijani territorial sovereignty.

How do we account for these divergent narratives and the consequences they pose for Artsakh’s Armenians? To do that requires disentangling the role that disinformation and Armenophobia play in Azerbaijan’s authoritarian regime.

OPINION

Jan. 31, 2023

For decades, Azerbaijan’s state officials have openly espoused pan-Turkism, an ethnoterritorial ideology that aims to unite all Turkic-speaking peoples and that undergirds the catastrophe in Artsakh today.

In 2005, the mayor of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, summarized his country’s position succinctly: “Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians.” During a 2020 military offensive in the region, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev famously announced, “This is the end. … We are chasing them like dogs.”

In December 2022, according to news reports, Azerbaijanis posed as environmental protesters to initiate an illegal blockade of Artsakh, closing the Lachin Corridor. Critical shortages of food, fuel and medical resources followed. With the population on the brink of famine by August, a former International Criminal Court prosecutor warned that a “genocide by starvation” was unfolding.

The international community — including, not insignificantly, nations that have recently doubled gas imports from Azerbaijan — remained silent, and Aliyev acted with impunity. He launched a lightning offensive on Sept. 19, against malnourished civilians and civilian infrastructure under the guise of “anti-terror” measures. At least 200 died in Artsakh, with many more wounded.

OPINION

Aug. 30, 2023

Forced to surrender, Artsakh President Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree stating that the republic would “cease to exist” on Jan. 1, 2024. In a matter of days, nearly the entire population had been forcibly displaced. For the first time in thousands of years, Artsakh is effectively absent Armenians.

Sidestepping ethnic cleansing and the humanitarian catastrophe, some news media have announced that Azerbaijan has “reclaimed” its territory and that a “smooth reintegration process” awaits Artsakh’s Armenians. What these accounts leave out is Azerbaijan’s history of disinformation, explicit expressions of genocidal intent and systematic silencing of those who oppose Aliyev’s authoritarian government.

From 2018 to 2021, reports published by the Palo Alto-based think tank Institute for the Future and the Guardian revealed a sprawling, state-sponsored digital repression campaign to obstruct political participation and block online dissent in Azerbaijan, overlapping with the country’s 2020 military offensive in Artsakh.

A major investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project exposed a multibillion-dollar laundering scheme connected to the Azerbaijani state that funneled funding to public relations efforts that promote government views. Reporters Without Borders ranks Azerbaijan at 151 out of 180 countries in its 2023 World Press Freedom Index.

OPINION

April 24, 2021

As Azerbaijan took Artsakh captive in September, NetBlocks cited “major disruptions to internet connectivity” in the region, obstructing the flow of information. A week later, Amnesty International reported that five Azerbaijani activists had been arrested and detained in connection with their advocacy for Artsakh’s Armenians.

The republic’s leaders, including former Artsakh state minister Ruben Vardanyan and three former presidents of the republic, have been arrested by Azerbaijani forces, in some cases as they tried to cross the border to Armenia.

Over the weekend, footage circulated of the deserted central square of Stepanakert, the Artsakh capital — strewn with abandoned chairs and possessions, a “ghost town,” in the words of one correspondent. A U.N. mission arrived Sunday, but as one refugee told the Guardian, “What is there left for the U.N. to monitor? … It is too late now.”

Despite all this, the international community remains keen to euphemize the “voluntary” exodus from Artsakh.

As scholars of media and of language, we are acutely aware of the geopolitical consequences of disinformation. The consequences will be all too grave for Artsakh’s Armenians. What looms is permanent displacement, dispossession and the erasure of their presence in the region.

There are mechanisms that might yet yield meaningful interventions. Ethnic cleansing and even genocide charges against Aliyev and his government could be brought in the International Criminal Court. Sanctions could be imposed against officials in Azerbaijan, as nearly 100 House and Senate lawmakers have urged. U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan could be cut, and substantial international funding could be allocated to aid the refugee population streaming into Armenia.

To activate these mechanisms, the claims of Azerbaijan’s disinformation apparatus must be recognized and denied — chief among them that 100,000 Armenians have “chosen to flee” their ancestral lands. One hundred and six years lapsed before the U.S. formally acknowledged the Armenian genocide of 1915. It’s vital to recognize the genocide that’s currently underway while it is still possible to resist it.

Mashinka Firunts Hakopian is an associate professor of technology and social justice at ArtCenter College of Design. Shushan Karapetian is the director of the USC Dornsife Institute of Armenian Studies.


Armenian Artists Contemplate Notions of Home and Belonging

Oct 5 2023
Much of Remain in Light jumps back and forth between Los Angeles and Armenia, underscoring the blurriness of living in diaspora.

LOS ANGELES — Some mountains are places and some are symbols. Mt. Ararat is both, a national and cultural symbol of Armenia and popularly considered the Biblical resting place of Noah’s Ark. Which is why it’s striking to see mounds of earth from the mountain — little piles of soil, obsidian tools, and even animal remains — in a gallery alongside “The Light Under Dark Clouds,” a myth-making image of Ararat by photographer Sossi Madzounian that shows the mountain cast under dark and light clouds. These mounds of earth come from an 8,000-year-old farming community at Ararat, reminding us that it’s a place and a symbol, an ancient home since the dawn of agriculture.

The mounds, and Madzounian’s photo, meet visitors at the entry to Remain in Light: Visions of Homeland and Diaspora, an exhibition of Armenian photographers currently on view at UCLA’s Fowler Museum. Alongside Madzounian are photographers Ara Mgrdichian and Ara Oshagan, all diaspora-born Armenian artists who live in Los Angeles, a city and county that is home to the second-largest Armenian population in the world outside Armenia itself. 

“Quo Vadis?” by Mgrdichian, a photo of signs pointing to LA’s “sister cities,” highlights the importance of Los Angeles as a diasporic home. A small sign points to the right to indicate the direction of Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, 7200 miles (~11,500 km) away. Next to this work is “Hand in Hand,” a photograph of children from the Orran Center for socially vulnerable children and families in Yerevan. They hold pieces of paper with their handprints on them.

Much of the show jumps back and forth between Los Angeles and Armenia, underscoring the blurriness of living in diaspora. Part of what makes the exhibition successful is curator Gassia Armenian’s arrangements, which draw connections between themes and regions. In “Mother and Child,” Madzounian depicts the christening of a first-born son in Armenia’s Vayots Dzor Province. The photo is composed to look like a Virgin Mother and child, an important religious symbol in many Armenian churches.

A few walls down, Mgrdichian’s “Mgrdoutioune” depicts a baptism in Glendale, the heart of the Armenian diaspora in Los Angeles County, where a man, presumably a father, holds a crying child. In the nearby “Christening,” Ara Oshagan shows Der Hovaness, a priest at Gantzasar monastery in Vank Village, Armenia, administering a blessing. Like pictures traded on a family WhatsApp chat, the photos speak to each other across time and space, suggesting the glue that religion and ritual play for cultures in diaspora.

Other important connections include photos addressing the 1915 Armenian genocide — in Oshagan’s “April 24” (the date commemorating the genocide victims), a man wearing a t-shirt saying “Genocide Never Again” appears to be crying on the street, while in Mgrdichian’s “Fight the Power,” people march in solidarity as they wave the US and Armenian flags. “Lachin,” a photo Oshagan took in Artsakh, shows a young boy on wooden stairs in the Lachin corridor of Artsakh, which connects the region to Armenia. Azerbaijan launched an attack on the region in 2020 and, as of press time, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the area following a military offensive from Azerbaijan that started on September 19. 

Gassia Armenian’s decision to include the artists’ own words brings to life their stories, making them as much a part of the show as the people and landmarks they photograph. Oshagan offers his identity as “a neural network made up of American/Armenian/Arabic/French parts that are in constant flux, in harmony and contention.” It’s a useful way to describe the exhibition — like Ararat, the photos speak to home as both a place and a symbol. In the face of diaspora and resistance, dispossession and defiance, home is always in flux.

Remain in Light: Visions of Homeland and Diaspora continues at the Fowler Museum at UCLA (308 Charles E. Young Drive North, Westwood, Los Angeles) through October 15. The show was curated by Gassia Armenian, Fowler curatorial and research associate.

View photos at https://hyperallergic.com/847677/armenian-artists-contemplate-notions-of-home-and-belonging-remain-in-light-fowler-museum-los-angeles/

The Politics and Disinformation Behind Armenian Exodus From Karabakh

Jamestown Foundation
Oct 5 2023

The talks between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, scheduled for October 5 in Granada, Spain, were abruptly canceled when Aliyev refused to take part. According to Baku, the main reason for this was the European Union changing the previous tripartite mediation format—EU, Armenia, and Azerbaijan—to include France and Germany (Aze.media, October 4). At the same time, Azerbaijan’s request to allow Turkish participation in the negotiations was declined.

France, home to a sizeable Armenian diaspora, has long been seen in Azerbaijan as a staunch supporter of Armenia. Recent official statements from French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and Paris’ pledge to deliver military equipment to Armenia put a potential peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan at risk (Euronews, October 4). This agreement is critical for opening the way for economic development in the region and creating an environment to encourage the return of Karabakh’s Armenians.

To accelerate the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, US and EU officials need to take into account the widespread disinformation regarding the events in Karabakh. Failure to do so may serve to harm their objective mediation of peace negotiations, which are critical for stabilizing the region. A peace treaty would create conditions for the return of both Armenian and Azerbaijani refugees to Karabakh and go a long way to ensuring long-term security in the South Caucasus.

On September 19, Baku conducted a brief military operation in Karabakh that defeated the armed formations of the separatist regime there and led to its dissolution (see EDM, September 20, 28). The “anti-terrorist” operation was reportedly triggered by two separate incidents of mine explosions on Azerbaijan-controlled territory in Karabakh that killed two civilians and four police officers (Mod.gov.az, September 19). Since the separatist authorities surrendered, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians are believed to have left the region for Armenia, leading to a local humanitarian emergency and international concerns about alleged ethnic cleansing (see EDM, October 4).

The European Union and the United States now have a historic opportunity to close the page on one of the longest regional conflicts in post-Soviet space. Both, nevertheless, need to recognize three changing realities in the South Caucasus. First, Azerbaijan has effectively won the 35-year war with Armenia over Karabakh, a war that was launched by Karabakh Armenians and backed by Yerevan in 1988 (Crisisgroup.org, September 16).

Second, Turkey has emerged as the most powerful regional state due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and Iran’s complicity in the war through supplying weapons to Moscow. While Turkey is a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, it is also a driving force for regional economic growth and the development of transit routes that connect the South Caucasus to Central Asia and Europe (see EDM, September 5; October 2).

Third, the mass exodus of Karabakh Armenians, while driven by fear of retribution and heated political rhetoric, far from qualifies as “ethnic cleansing.” A refugee crisis is always a humanitarian tragedy for thousands of people, but it can often be remedied if there is no systematic expulsion of ethnic populations through violence and intimidation. Thus far, Baku has given repeated assurances that the Armenians in Karabakh will be protected and that they can become citizens of Azerbaijan. The government has opened an online portal for those Armenians who want to register to obtain Azerbaijani citizenship (Press.un.org, September 21; News.az, September 28).

Pashinyan has continually claimed that “ethnic cleansing is underway” in the region (TASS, September 28). He took these assertions a step further in telling Colonna that Azerbaijan had carried out “a pre-announced ethnic cleansing” (Arka.am, October 4). The findings of a recent United Nations mission to Karabakh, however, stand in stark contrast to Pashinyan’s and Yerevan’s claims (see EDM, September 20; Panarmenian.net, September 28). Although the mission found that very few Armenians still remain in Karabakh, presumably no more than 1,000, it did not discover any reports of incidents of violence against civilians after the latest ceasefire (Azerbaijan.un.org, October 2).

The UN representatives said they were “struck by the sudden manner in which the local population left their homes and the suffering the experience must have caused.” The mass exodus has created a humanitarian crisis, but many Armenian refugees are reporting that they have not been forced to leave their homes by Azerbaijani representatives (YouTube, October 2). The majority followed the call from the separatist leaders in Karabakh to flee to Armenia for safety. This underscores the fact that local politics and disinformation have more to do with the sudden departure of thousands of Armenians than alleged forcible deportations conducted by Azerbaijani officials (BBC, September 26).

The UN delegation also observed no damage to civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and housing. The report also noted that no cultural and religious structures in the regional capital of Khankendi had been destroyed, though the city now looks like a ghost town without its population. International media reports contributed to these findings, displaying an abandoned city but no visible signs of infrastructure damage or destruction (Al Jazeera, October 1).

Some public figures in Armenia took exception with the UN report. Edmon Marukyan, an Armenian ambassador-at-large, subsequently criticized the UN mission in Karabakh for legitimizing “the ethnic cleansing, arbitrary detentions, destructions of civilian infrastructure, and other crimes committed by Azerbaijan.” He called on the United Nations to investigate the activities of “these representatives” (Armepress.am, October 3).

Such public statements serve to further disrupt potential talks between Baku and Yerevan. In this case, Marykyan’s words sparked another round of arguments on social media between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. These sentiments, in turn, hurt the chances for establishing a lasting peace in the South Caucasus. The mediation efforts of the United States and European Union could be an effective way to tamp down these tensions.

https://jamestown.org/program/the-politics-and-disinformation-behind-the-armenian-exodus-from-karabakh/

UNICEF in Armenia creates safe spaces for children from Karabakh

UN News
Oct 5 2023
5 October 2023

 

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In one week, more than 100,000 people arrived in Armenia from Karabakh, including around 30,000 children. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is among humanitarian agencies mobilized to help the refugees.

UNICEF Representative in Armenia Christine Weigand said children arrive there very tired, hungry and in a state of shock. Their immediate needs are very much linked to health issues. 

Speaking to UN News’s Anton Uspensky, she explained that in the long run, assistance will be provided to support children’s integration into the educational system. They will also receive psychological support to help them overcome the shock and trauma.

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Azerbaijan Writes the Last Chapter in Karabakh

Politics today
Oct 5 2023

October 5, 2023

Armenia had taken no steps regarding its military assistance and presence in the four regions or the Nagorno-Karabakh corridor.

T

hree years and four days ago, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War began with Azerbaijan’s counterattack in response to Armenian aggression. The war ended 44 days later, on November 9, with the Trilateral Declaration of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia. This agreement not only ended the war between the two countries, but Azerbaijan liberated 10,000 sq km of its occupied territory that covered an area of 13,000 sq km in total; it did not, however establish state authority in the remaining 3,000 sq km of Khankendi, Khojaly, Khojavend, and Agdere.

In Karabakh, the so-called Artsakh Republic, a government created by Armenians in 1991 and not even recognized by Armenia itself, was established and a continuous link with Armenia was maintained through the occupied territories. According to Article 4 of the Trilateral Declaration, Armenia was to withdraw its armed forces from the region, while Russian peacekeepers were to be stationed there. In addition, according to Article 9 of the declaration, the so-called Zangezur corridor was to be established to ensure uninterrupted safe transport between the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijani territories.

Although Armenia and Azerbaijan were negotiating a lasting peace, and Pashinyan occasionally reaffirmed his recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, no peace treaty had been signed. In addition, Armenia had taken no steps regarding its military assistance and presence in the four regions or the Nagorno-Karabakh corridor.

During the second track diplomacy meetings with civil society organizations and third parties on both sides, utopian ideas such as “delaying the process as long as possible, reoccupying Karabakh when the conditions are ripe, and ensuring an uninterrupted territorial connection with Armenia” were sometimes expressed. At worst, Armenia sought a different status (autonomy or greater privileges under international supervision) for the Armenians living in Karabakh.

Read: The Coup That Never Happened and the “Karabakh Clan” in the Armenian Army

Azerbaijan’s inability to establish its authority fully in Khankendi, Khojaly, Khojavend, and Agdere was not the only problem after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Attacks and sabotage by Armenia and Armenian-backed armed groups against Azerbaijani military posts and construction activities in the liberated areas posed a significant problem.

In fact, after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, more than 300 Azerbaijani civilians and security personnel were killed by mines and sabotage. This situation posed significant risks not only for the reconstruction of the region, but also for the return of forcibly displaced Azerbaijanis. It, therefore, became untenable.

Finally, following recent attacks on civilians and police officers, Azerbaijan launched a counterterrorism operation on September 19. The operation was highly professional in its planning and execution. In less than 24 hours, the Armenian armed groups announced their surrender. As a result of the negotiations following the operation, the Armenian armed groups agreed to lay down their arms and to dissolve the so-called state. In this manner, it was confirmed once again that the status quo imposed on Karabakh for the last 30 years has come to an end and the curtain has closed.

Read: Is War at the Door? Iran and the Azerbaijan-Armenia Tensions

At this point, it would be an oversimplification to characterize the Armenian armed groups or the hardliners in Karabakh simply as separatist armed groups or terrorists. There are many reasons for this, but I will mention just three. First, these groups were very influential in Armenian politics and worked closely with the hardline diaspora, in a sense holding the fate of the Armenian people hostage.

Second, these groups, reportedly numbering between 10,000 and 12,000, had armored vehicles, tanks, and even air defense systems that almost no terrorist organization has in its inventory. In addition, combat-ready individuals were recruited and deployed from various countries, including the PKK/YPG and, most importantly, officers from the Armenian army.

Third, these groups received all kinds of military support from Armenia through the Lachin corridor. In fact, as part of Azerbaijan’s measures against mines and sabotage, mines produced after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War have been detected in the region.

Therefore, with its recent anti-terrorist operation, Azerbaijan has not only consolidated state authority in these regions, but has also dealt a significant blow to the influence of the Khankendi clan, which is the “sword of Damocles” in Armenian politics and that had a significant influence over Armenia’s policies on Karabakh.

Read: Mercenaries in Karabakh: Who They Are and How They Got There

Since the beginning of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Azerbaijani state has repeatedly declared that Karabakh Armenians are citizens of Azerbaijan and have the same rights and duties as other Azerbaijanis on the basis of citizenship. Nevertheless, after the surrender of the so-called administration in Karabakh following the military operation, tens of thousands of people of Armenian origin were seen leaving Karabakh for Armenia.

Utilizing the convoys formed by these civilians, the Armenian lobby, especially those living in the U.S., France, and Russia, as well as those who are categorically anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani, (it would be more accurate to say Turkophobic), have launched a new campaign: they are lamenting and shouting slogans with tears in their eyes, and collecting signatures about a “genocide” that is being committed again, referring to 1915.

Those who are trying to manipulate this humanitarian tragedy did not see any evil when nearly one million Azerbaijani Turks were forcibly displaced in 1988-1994, nor when hundreds of people, including women, children, and elderly, were massacred in Khojaly in 1992. Nor did they raise a peep of protest when Armenia shelled Azerbaijani civilian settlements during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

The initial reaction of the Armenians in the region, who were alarmed when the so-called Artsakh administration capitulated and announced that it would disband, is understandable. For decades, they had been convinced that the occupation of Karabakh would last forever and had been indoctrinated with an ideology of hatred against Azerbaijan.

However, no one massacred them, no one told them to leave the lands where authority had been established, and no one gave them a deadline and told them that they would be forcibly expelled. On the contrary, new channels of communication were opened for the Armenians of the region and their process of reintegration into Azerbaijan began the same week.

As the reintegration process of the Armenians who stayed despite the separatists’ instructions progresses, it is likely that a significant number of those who left for Armenia will return and live their lives with the rights and responsibilities granted by Azerbaijani law. Indeed, in its meetings with U.S. officials and the UN, Azerbaijan stated that the process can be monitored on the ground —an important sign of its confidence in this regard. The healthy progress of the reintegration of Azerbaijani Armenians into the country is an important opportunity to put an end to the seeds of hatred and vengeful politics that are being sown in the region.

The last point that needs to be mentioned is that we need to eliminate altogether concepts such as the “Karabakh problem” or the “status of Karabakh.” The Karabakh conflict largely ended with the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, and with the anti-terrorist operation carried out by Azerbaijan on September 19, the final chapter has been written.

From now on, the focus should be on the reconstruction of the region, the return of displaced Azerbaijanis to their lands, the reintegration of Azerbaijani Armenians into Azerbaijan, the accountability of those who committed war crimes in the past under international and Azerbaijani law, and the creation of a peaceful and prosperous stable space in the South Caucasus as a whole.

Armenpress: FM Mirzoyan, Borrell discuss how to further strengthen Armenia’s resilience and relations with EU

 19:35, 6 October 2023

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 6, ARMENPRESS. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission Josep Borrell on October 5 discussed how to further strengthen Armenia’s resilience and the EU-Armenia relations.

In a post on X, Borrell said he stressed the EU commitment to continued facilitation of the peace process.

“Exchanged yesterday with Ararat Mirzoyan on situation in Armenia & needs of over 100.000 displaced Karabakh Armenians. Discussed how to further strengthen Armenia’s resilience and EU-Armenia relations. Stressed the EU commitment to continued facilitation of the peace process,” Borrell said.

Armenia not taking part in CSTO military exercises in Kyrgyzstan

 19:55, 6 October 2023

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 6, ARMENPRESS. Armenia is not taking part in the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) Indestructible Brotherhood military exercises that kicked off near the Kyrgyz town of Balykchy on October 6.

The host country’s defense ministry said troops from all other CSTO members are participating in the drills.

How did Israeli tech affect Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh? – analysis

Jerusalem Post
Oct 5 2023
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Israel and Azerbaijan are strategic partners and have close relations. Over the last decades, these ties have increased.

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen made an important visit to Azerbaijan in April and stressed the strategic relations between Israel and Azerbaijan which are multi-layered and involve security, energy, trade, and tourism.

Now those ties are in the spotlight because of the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh where most of the Armenian population has now fled after a brief day of fighting between Armenian forces and Baku’s far superior military. While Israel’s defense technology played a key role in Baku’s overall victory in several rounds of fighting in the last years, the larger story is how Russia and the West let this conflict take place.  


There are questions about whether Israel’s defense ties and arms sales to Baku were linked to the conflict or somehow fueled it and increased Baku’s capabilities. It’s important here to take a step back and understand the broader context and history. The Soviet Union created the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by creating a patchwork of borders and areas in the Caucasus where a mosaic of groups live, including many minorities that live within the borders of other countries.

In the 1990s, when the Soviet Union fell apart, this unleashed wars in many places and left simmering conflicts, whether in Chechnya, Georgia, or between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 


Armenia had the upper hand in the 1990s when it was backed by Russia. It had inherited a traditional Soviet military infrastructure, with lots of tanks, artillery and heavy conventional weapons.

Azerbaijan, by contrast, sought to improve its military with modern weapons acquired through procurement that was fueled by its booming economy, based partly on energy trade and other resources. Baku has a close alliance with Ankara and Turkey under the AKP party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to strengthen Baku’s hand.  


Israeli defense companies have a played a role in Azerbaijan’s modernization of its armed forces. This has caused controversy in the past. In 2018 Radio Free Europe had a report saying “Israel accuses drone maker of bombing Armenian soldiers, at Baku’s request.” It was widely known that Azerbaijan acquired a large number of different types of drones from Israel, including loitering munitions.

Loitering munitions are a type of drone where the drone itself is the warhead, similar to a cruise missile. The difference is the munition can “loiter” and look for targets. In the past these were expensive pieces of equipment used to hunt down high value targets or destroy radars.   

Over the years Azerbaijan clashed with Armenia over the area of Nagorno-Karabakh. This area, inhabited by Armenians, is part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by Armenia since the 1990s.

In 2016, there were clashes and the Jamestown Foundation noted Baku’s success using drones, particularly those acquired from Israel. Reports over the years also noted the large number of defense deals that Baku had with Israeli companies, more than a billion dollars in one deal, according to Haaretz.  

The conflict in 2016 continued for several days and enabled Baku to unveil its new technology on the battlefront. This was a dry run for 2020 when Azerbaijan defeated Armenian forces and ended up controlling a swath of territory around Nagorno-Karabkah, territory that Baku noted it was merely reconquering after the conflict in the 1990s. Reports in the fall of 2020 noted that Baku had praised the role of Israeli drones and technology in this conflict. It also praised the role Turkey had played and Turkey’s Bayraktar drones.  

However, drones don’t win wars. Drones can help a country like Azerbaijan achieve a lot of results using precision strikes. This, in a sense, gave Baku an instant air force. Countries like Azerbaijan that may not have access to modern 5th generation warplanes sold by the US, such as the F-35, have access to the next level of modern technology via drones. Israeli-made systems like the Harop, Haropy, Orbiter or SkyStrikes and others are at the forefront of technology in the new battlefields of the future.

However, precision strikes only give a country a certain amount of capabilities to overmatch an adversary. They can degrade radars and take out headquarters, communication nodes and armored vehicles. They can strike long range missiles and strategic targets. This is how the US destroyed Iraq’s army in 1991, it pounded it from the air for weeks and then eviscerated it in several days of ground warfare. 

The Iraqi army in 1991 was also heavily reliant on Soviet era armored vehicles and systems, like the Armenian army of 2016-2020. Therefore Azerbaijan defeated Armenia through the use of modern technology, but in the end Baku had to send in ground forces to win the war at the end. Azerbaijan’s armored vehicles and ground forces equipment is still linked to the country’s past and thus relies on Russian equipment. Therefore Baku delivered a one-two punch, using modern technology from countries like Israel, with Russian and older equipment that Baku had on hand.  

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The conflict in 2023 in Nagorno-Karabakh that has caused 120,000 Armenians to flee was not a military conflict. It only took Baku one day to defeat the 10,000 Armenian fighters who had been blockaded in Nagorno-Karabkah for months and who had access to old munitions and old conventional weapons. In essence the conflict in Nagorno-Karabkah was decided years ago. Armenia had abandoned the Armenians there and they had been blockaded by Baku via the Lachin corridor road to Armenia.

Baku also was able to get Russia on its side before the conflict. The West also appears to have signed off. This is clear because the West warned Serbia against a military build up on Kosovo’s border in late September and early October, but the West didn’t warn about Baku’s military build-up. The West views Azerbaijan’s operation as enforcing territorial integrity under the rules-based international order, which means the Armenians were viewed as “separatists” and Baku had a right to take back the area.  

Therefore the story of the brief fighting in Nagorno-Karabkah that led to Armenians fleeing was not about Israeli military technology. This was an old style strategic victory for Baku. They cut the area off, they blockaded it and then they asserted their rights to it via a quick military victory at a few key points.

Azerbaijan’s operations took place with Russian peacekeepers looking on, this was not a huge battle in which Baku had to hammer away at Armenian fighters in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. This was a stratagem, presenting the Armenians with a fait accompli, and the Armenians were abandoned by the international community which had quietly accepted that this would be the outcome.   

Reports suggesting Israeli arms fueled this conflict exaggerate the role of Israel’s role. Israeli defense technology has turned Azerbaijan into a modern military power that can project strength and also defend its skies. It has transformed it into a powerhouse in the South Caucasus. However, that is only part of the story of what defeated the Armenians.

They were defeated because Russia abandoned them, unlike in the 1990s, and because they were cut off in Nagorno-Karabakh, a result of the international community not demanding observers and an international presence and some kind of agreement giving them autonomy. They didn’t benefit, for instance, from the support the Kosovars had in the 1990s. Baku understood this and acted accordingly.

The real story of Israel’s success in a strategic partnership with Baku goes much further and has implications for the future. Israel makes the technology that is transforming warfare, making it more precise and more technology-driven. This isn’t the heavy weapons of warfare of old, like giant 60-ton tanks, this is the nimble technology that makes conflicts faster and less deadly. Baku’s success and the tragedy that befell the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh is more a story of larger countries such as the US and Russia, rather than a story of defense tech that helped Azerbaijan achieve overmatch on the tactical level.  


https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-761855

Armenia: As of Oct. 5, continued demonstrations denouncing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan likely in Yerevan in coming days /update 3

Crisis 24
Oct 5 2023

As of Oct. 5, protests will likely continue in Yerevan in the coming days as residents continue to denounce Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Residents are demanding his resignation over his administration’s perceived weak response to the recent conflict between ethnic Armenian forces and the Azerbaijani military in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh). Demonstrators plan to gather in Freedom Square from 19:00 Oct. 6; additional protests are possible.

Further protests are likely throughout downtown Yerevan as activist groups, including Mother Armenia, continue to call for protests. Other protest hotspots include the National Assembly, the Government of Armenia building, Freedom Square, and Republic Square.

Heightened security and transport disruptions are likely throughout Yerevan, particularly near government buildings. Clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement officers are possible.

Armenian nationalist and opposition groups regularly protest in Yerevan to denounce the government’s actions in relation to the ongoing dispute regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Protests typically flare up in response to military and political developments that may affect the ethnic Armenian control of the disputed region.

Avoid all protests. Allow additional time if traveling in central Yerevan. Immediately depart the area at the first sign that any violent confrontation may occur. Heed instructions from authorities.

https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/10/armenia-as-of-oct-5-continued-demonstrations-denouncing-prime-minister-nikol-pashinyan-likely-in-yerevan-in-coming-days-update-3