zerbaijan has brilliantly completed in one single day its military campaign to restore the country’s full control over Karabakh, thus effectively ending 30 years of separatism there. The region was home to approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians, who refused to disarm after the “44-day war” back in 2020. This latest “one-day” conflict could initiate challenging peace negotiations for Armenia with Azerbaijan.
Another option though, if Armenia further fails an agreement to provide Zangezur pass for Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhichevan (please see map) – then this might trigger another military escalation between the two countries, which considering the on-going war in Ukraine will be hard to be stopped either by the EU, US, or Russia (the latter has its military base in Armenia). Another geopolitical outcome could be that final resolution of separatism in Caucasus could trigger cascading resolution of several other frozen conflicts in Georgia and Moldova, instigated with the Russian involvement from the 1990s to 2008.
On Sept. 20, 2023, after massive shelling of separatist military targets, more than 200 Armenian separatists were killed and 400 to 700 wounded, air defense and other military facilities were destroyed in the first few hours according to Azerbaijani sources. Azerbaijan has lost 191 soldiers and militias. Further resistance was recognized as futile, and the Armenian separatists agreed to an unconditional ceasefire and disarmament. The parties started negotiations, and a humanitarian corridor was opened for civilians wishing to leave the war zone, which according to the latest data provided by Armenia has already been used by 100 thousand people, or almost all Armenian population in Karabakh. According to UN observers, there were no cases of ethnic cleansing registered. The Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh was asked not to leave the places of permanent deployment during the hostilities in order to avoid casualties, which they took advantage of and their further peace-keeping mission in Azerbaijan hardly makes any sense.
As Azerbaijani media later reported, the parties agreed on “70% of the issues” during the negotiations, and we could assume that the remaining 30% is the disagreement on the Zangezur corridor from Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan region.
The vital for Azerbaijan Zangezur pass was part of the agreements achieved following the 2020 year’s 44-day war. However, Armenia now again seems unwilling to give in, which is indirectly confirmed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that Armenia is not a party to the conflict between the Karabakh separatists and Baku. However, opening this corridor to Nakhichevan is a key condition for Azerbaijan to normalize relations between the two countries and, if unresolved, inexorably threatens a new round of hostilities between the two countries, the readiness for which Azerbaijani President Aliyev has already spoken about in recent speeches.
The Zangezur transportation route existed in the Soviet era in the form of a railroad and highway route but was dismantled by Armenia in the 1990s after the First Nagorno-Nagorno-Karabakh War, disrupting logistics and communications between Azerbaijan and its exclave. Following the first hostilities in the 1980’s over 300.000 Azeries left Armenia, and almost 500.00 from Karabakh captured by Armenian forces and separatisits, thus turning themselves into fugitives, they had to flee to safety in Azerbaijan, with many registered cases of mass killings by Armenian militia registered at this time, over 2.000 still missing. Today Azerbaijan wants to fully restore the corridor in Zangezur region, which was previously inhabited by Azeries and this would also provide it the shortest route to Turkey.
The restoration of the corridor, although it would have positive economic benefits to land-locked Armenia itself, was strongly opposed by Iran, declaring it would intervene in case of military action by Azerbaijan. However, after Turkey and, unexpectedly for many analysts, Pakistan, stated that Iran should not interfere in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Iran walked back its rhetoric
One key roadblock to Azerbaijan restoring the corridor militarily is that it is located within Armenia’s internationally recognized borders. If Baku was to send troops, it should formally trigger common defense treaty between Armenia and Russia. However, the 5,000-strong Russian contingent in Armenia is insufficient to confront Azerbaijan’s 60,000-strong force, which has significantly improved its combat capability over the past three years, while the Armenian forces have not recovered. Last week’s results showed that both these factors make it impossible to confront Azerbaijani forces, and there is no hope for effective help from the West, which is busy with the war in Ukraine.
Again, there is an active position of Turkey in this issue on the side of Azerbaijan, and the West itself is likely to be interested in squeezing Russia and its base from the South Caucasus. In fact, popular resentment by Armenians at Kremlin’s non-involvement in the last war and loss of Karabakh, will most probably instigate Armenia leaving its military alliance with Russia.
In fact, Armenia now finds itself in a geopolitical stalemate and strategic dead end. Turkish President Erdogan visited Baku recently and possibly discussed a formal meeting of the leaders of Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, which should resolve the issue of the Zangezur corridor. Otherwise, if such resolution fails then another military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be almost imminent. Aliyev has already demonstrated twice successful utilization of a unique historical opportunity (the 44-day war broke out amid the pandemic lockdown) and he is unlikely to miss Armenia’s current isolation and weakness this time either.
Another important geopolitical consequence of successfully ending Karabakh separatism by Azerbaijan, could be unfreezing of other similar problems, namely in neighboring Georgia and Moldova. Their situations though differ from each other and have their own peculiarities. Georgia’s military capabilities are disproportionately lower than Azerbaijan, which spent almost $3 billion per annum on military build-up over the last ten years, or almost 5% of its GDP, while Georgia spends only $0.5 billion, or less than 2% of its GDP and has to face Russian forces, which on the other hand are much weaker due to war in Ukraine. Another point to consider is that the current Georgian government does not appear to be ready to escalate tensions with Russia in order to restore its territorial integrity over its break-away separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The situation in Moldova is no radically different in terms of its military capabilities, but Russia’s weakening leaves their 2.000 strong contingent in Dniestr without any back-up and there is no doubt that the West is likely to provide all the necessary military assistance to Moldova to eliminate the last hotbed of Trans-Dniestr separatism in Eastern Europe.
[Photo by government.ru, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
The author is the Director at the Center for Central Asia Studies “C5+” and a former career diplomat at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kazakhstan. His diplomatic postings included Kazakh embassies in Seoul, New Delhi and London.
14:36, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. French Senator Valérie Boyer has rebuked a recent UN team’s visit to Nagorno-Karabakh, describing it as a ‘masquerade’.
“I think we need to defend Armenia, but not through the masquerade happening today,” she said, referring to the UN mission visit to NK. “Do you have the list of participating countries in the mission selected by Azerbaijan? There’s no one left in [Nagorno-Karabakh],” Boyer said during the C dans l'air program.
The Senator called on the French government to recall its ambassador from Azerbaijan and impose sanctions against Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
After most of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh had fled the region following the September 19-20 Azerbaijani attack, a UN team reportedly consisting of representatives of Turkey, Pakistan, Albania, Hungary and Russia – all traditional allies and partners of Azerbaijan – visited Nagorno-Karabakh and claimed that they were ‘struck by the sudden manner in which the local population left their homes’, and that they did not see 'any damage to civilian infrastructure'.
However, civilian infrastructures were extensively targeted by the Azeri military during the attack, Nagorno-Karabakh authorities reported during the hostilities. Civilian casualties included children.
On October 3, a senior Armenian diplomat the UN team, saying that it was “discrediting the UN as an institution.”
https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1121175.html?fbclid=IwAR305pO7z6J8uvd9eko62wIDZ6obXRQjKwvUqGwBxJf5MLMeDiK-r6PLOZQ
15:18, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. President of the Senate of France Gérard Larcher has accused Azerbaijan of committing ethnic cleansing against the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Regarding Armenia, I am expressing my solidarity and I am asking, are we going to sacrifice this country at the altar of the energy deal with Azerbaijan? We must display courage from time to time. All of us must stand with Armenia and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. They were forced to leave a land which was theirs. If that’s not ethnic cleansing, then I don’t know what else it is,” Larcher said in an interview with Le Figaro newspaper.
16:23, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. The number of forcibly displaced persons who’ve entered Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh stood at 100,632 as of 16:00, October 4, the prime minister’s spokesperson Nazeli Baghdasaryan said at a press briefing.
97% of the forcibly displaced persons have already registered.
324 forcibly displaced persons from NK are now receiving treatment in Armenian hospitals, according to the healthcare ministry. 114 of them are in serious condition while 15 are in critical condition. 8 children are in intensive care.
15:59, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. Belgium has sent a group of experts specializing in burns to help treat the victims of the September 25 fuel depot explosion in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib has said that several victims will be transported to Belgium for treatment.
“Belgium responded to Armenia’s request to provide assistance after the fuel depot explosion in Nagorno-Karabakh. A group of experts specializing in severe burns from Belgian First Aid and Support Team (B-FAST) is dispatched to Yerevan. The victims will be transported to Belgium to receive treatment,” the Belgian FM said on X.
16:56, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. Spanish Member of Parliament Jon Inarritu is visiting Armenia as part of a fact-finding mission on the ethnic cleansing committed by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“The situation in Armenia and Artsakh [NK] demands our attention and action to prevent further ethnic cleansing,” he said on X, sharing a video message from Republic Square, Yerevan. “We must act now!”
Inarritu expressed support to the Armenian people.
Armenia’s security must be ensured to prevent new attacks and threats from Azerbaijan, he said.
17:24, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed regret that his planned meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Granada, Spain will not take place. Pashinyan said there was a chance to sign a crucial document at that meeting.
“We’ve been confirming our visit to Granada until the very last moment, even today,” Pashinyan said in parliament during question time. “Furthermore, we had a very constructive and optimistic disposition, because we believed that there was a chance to sign a document of crucial significance. We were assessing that likelihood very high up until this morning. It’s the document which the marionette opposition was doing everything to misrepresent as a devastating document. And because they failed, Armenia did not give in to marionette pressures, it expressed a clear, reasonable and constructive position, made its viewpoints clear, and understandably no one could close the airports, and then we saw what happened. It turned out that the planned meeting won’t take place not because of us. For the record, the marionette opposition won’t get its bonuses, because, indeed the issue is solved but it wasn’t solved by their hands,” Pashinyan said.
The Armenian PM expressed regret that the meeting has been cancelled. He expressed hope that the concept document which is on the negotiation table will be signed at a convenient time.
“I am ready to sign that agreement and I very much regret that tomorrow I won’t have the occasion to announce that this highly important decision was made,” Pashinyan said.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has cancelled his participation in the planned October 5 Granada summit with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, President of the European Council Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, according to Azerbaijani media reports.
According to the reports, Azerbaijan opted out of the meeting because Germany and France rejected Azerbaijan’s request to include Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the meeting.
17:32, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. Armenia’s Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Marukyan, in an interview with Al Jazeera, has presented the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh. Marukyan said that Azerbaijan has subjected the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to ethnic cleansing.
[see video]
17:36, 4 October 2023
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan assures that he is not clinging to the chair, he is ready to resign if it will help to solve all the challenges, but he is sure that exactly the opposite will happen if he does so. As Armenpress reports, the Prime Minister said this during parliament-Cabinet Q&A session.
Referring to the viewpoint of Mher Sahakyan, MP representing the Hayastan faction, that the Prime Minister "has clung to" the chair, Mr. Pashinyan said. "The reality is quite the opposite. In 2021, I resigned,once again letting people of Armenia decide in that situation through extraordinary electionswho is the Prime Minister of Armenia."
Referring to the observations of the opposition, according to which the government stated that if they are not in power, there will be a war, the Prime Minister said. "On the other hand, you used to and are constantly saying that if we continue to stay in power, there will be a war. The reality is different. Unfortunately, the global situation of the Republic of Armenia does not depend only on the authorities. It is another question that in the global situation we should be able to be maximally correctly positioned. I must admit that we have not always managed to position ourselves correctlyin the past too. We call a certain period "the period of peace". We haven't had peace within 30 years, we've just had a postponement of the war, perhaps at the cost of Armenia's independence and puppetization."
The MP called on the Prime Minister to leave, blaming him for the policy he conducts.
The Prime Minister did not deny that Armenia faces challenges and has always faced them.
"However, it is very importantto understand the kind of challenges. To be frank and honest, if I know that, for example, all those challenges will be addressedby my resignation, I will do it in the next second, because, contrary to you, I am not clinging to the chair and never have clung. But all my analysis shows that if I do so, quite the opposite will happen. And that does not happen also for this very reason," emphasiedMr. Pashinyan.
Addressing the opposition MP, the Prime Minister said, "You tried that scenario in Nagorno-Karabakh and implemented it. Have things gotbetter?? Of course, you cannot implement it in Armenia, but I want us at least to draw conclusions from this theoretical situation."