MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan's president scolded the European Union and warned that France's decision to send military aid to Armenia could trigger a new conflict in the South Caucasus after a lightening Azerbaijani military operation last month.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev last week pulled out of an EU-brokered meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at which Brussels said it was standing by Armenia.

But Aliyev criticised the EU's approach – and particularly France's position – when European Council, Charles Michel, telephoned him, according to an Azerbaijani statement issued late on Saturday.

President Ilham Aliyev said "that due to the well-known position of France, Azerbaijan did not participate in the meeting in Granada," the Azerbaijani presidential office said.

"The head of state emphasized that the provision of weapons by France to Armenia was an approach that was not serving peace, but one intended to inflate a new conflict, and if any new conflict occurs in the region, France would be responsible for causing it."

France has agreed on future contracts with Armenia to supply it with military equipment to help ensure its defences, Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said Oct. 3 during a visit to Yerevan.

She declined to elaborate on what sort of military aid was envisaged for Armenia under future supply contracts. French President Emmanuel Macron scolded Azerbaijan, saying that Baku appeared to have a problem with international law.

Aliyev restored control over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh last month with a 24-hour military operation which triggered the exodus of most of the territory's 120,000 ethnic Armenians to Armenia.

Aliyev said he had acted in accordance with international law, adding that eight villages in Azerbaijan were "still under Armenian occupation, and stressed the importance of liberating these villages from occupation."

The Azerbaijani president visited Georgia on Sunday and thanked Tbilisi for offering to mediate for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

But an Armenian envoy said he feared Azerbaijan could invade within weeks.

"We are now under imminent threat of invasion," the Armenian ambassador-designate to the EU, Tigran Balayan, told Brussels Signal.

PARIS — Against the backdrop of the mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, the French government is taking a leading role in supporting Armenia and calling to protect its sovereignty, pushing the European Union to adopt similar positions. 

France has been an ally of Armenia since its independence in 1991 and recognized the Armenian genocide in 2001. Still, while trying to support Armenia in this conflict, it must also take into account the vast commercial relations between the EU and Azerbaijan, which is one of its gas suppliers, and its already complicated relations with Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan. 

In Spain for the third European Political Community summit taking place on Thursday and Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council president Charles Michel, met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The European leaders expressed their support of Armenia’s independence and sovereignty and called to reinforce relations between the European Union and Armenia. 

While invited, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev decided not to join. 

On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne called upon the members of the French National Assembly to set up "a real European plan for supporting Armenia’s independence, sovereignty and democracy." 

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna traveled on the same day to Yerevan, after meeting with her EU counterparts in Kyiv the day before. German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung claimed that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock didn’t accept Colonna's suggestion to travel together to Yerevan, thus exposing the distance between the two countries over gas-providing Azerbaijan and also on Turkey. 

Boosting military cooperation

Addressing the press in Armenia on Tuesday, Colonna said that France "has given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts, to be forged with Armenia, which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia for its defense." 

The French minister refused to offer any details on the potential transfer of military equipment to Armenia. The two countries had discussed military cooperation during the Paris visit of Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Karen Brutyan in June 2022, and then again during the visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to Paris in September 2022. Still, until Colonna's statement, France had not officially announced the transfer of arms. 

In a call to other EU members, Colonna said that the EU "could do more" to assist Armenia. “I asked officially, in writing, the High Representative of the European Union Josep Borrell … to include Armenia in the field of beneficiaries of the European Peace Facility.” The French minister was referring to the EU’s mechanism for financing exterior actions that include defense or military dimensions. 

The delivery of military equipment does not only reflect the yearslong alliance between Paris and Yerevan. It also mirrors the importance France places on preserving Armenian democracy, against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Paris believes that forging strong ties with Yerevan would pull it increasingly away from the influence of Moscow. 

Bigger wedge with Turkey

The eagerness of Paris to showcase its support of Yerevan could place it in a difficult spot vis-a-vis Ankara, said French researcher Nicolas Monceau of the University of Bordeaux. Still, addressing the latest French declarations, the expert on Turkey-France relations called for prudence. He said that it is too soon to tell what exactly Colonna's statement means and how it will affect France’s relationship with Turkey. 

"France has been calling for a long time for solidarity with Armenia and with the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. With recent developments, Paris needs to show that it is truly engaged, not only in declarations but also with actions. That’s the essence of the approval, announced by Colonna, to deliver military material to Armenia. But a lot will depend on the kind of material that will be transferred and how much of it," Monceau noted.

"In all likelihood, France will provide Armenia strictly with defensive means; Paris can justify that vis-a-vis Ankara. But if offensive weapons are provided, then it’s a whole new ballgame. If we are ever in a situation where French weapons are used by Armenia or by Armenians against Azerbaijan, then the leadership in Turkey will be hard pressed to react," he added. 

Monceau acknowledged that bilateral relations between France and Turkey have been tense for several years already, but he does not think that the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the latest statement by Colonna, will mark a tipping point. 

"The declarations by Paris and the decision to approve the delivery of military equipment are not targeting Turkey. They constitute a message to Armenia — and to the Armenian people — that France is not abandoning them. It’s also a message to the other EU members and to the countries in the Armenian camp that France is sincere about protecting Armenia. Lastly, it is an internal message of solidarity by the Paris government for the many French nationals of Armenian origin. France is not trying deliberately to provoke Turkey," he said.

Paris and Ankara have been at odds over human rights, the Kurdish issue and a series of regional crises such as the wars in Syria and Libya, and the skirmishes between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Still, the two countries have come somewhat closer over the war in Ukraine. After his meeting with President Volodymir Zelenskyy last July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “without a doubt Ukraine deserves to be in NATO” — a statement much appreciated by Paris. 

Monceau stressed that Turkey currently finds itself in an especially difficult economic situation. As such, it must reengage with the West and rehabilitate its ties with the EU. 

Erdogan used harsh words last Sunday, at the opening of the parliament session in Ankara, saying he “no longer expects anything from the EU, which has kept us waiting at its door for 40 years." Nevertheless, Monceau noted that Erdogan does not intend to take harsh measures, at least not over France’s solidarity with Armenia. 

"There is a long list of disagreements between Paris and Ankara, including on human rights, such as the case of [imprisoned human activist] Osman Kavala. Still, if France does not take the military assistance to Armenia too far, then Turkey will probably be able to contain it," he concluded.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/10/armenias-ties-strain-turkey-france-pushes-eu-stand-yerevan

Current Situation

Following the recent escalation of the decades-long conflict in the region, the Government of the Republic of Armenia reported that between 24 September and 4 October 2023, 100,632 refugees, including 30,000 children, arrived in the country. An average of 15,000 people arrived per day, with a peak of 40,000 refugees entering the country on 27 September 2023. So far, the Government has registered 98,000 refugees in government-run registration centres.

Overall, the number of refugees constitute almost 3 per cent of the entire Armenian population, i.e., 1 in 30 people, which adds to the 36,000 refugees, asylum-seekers and stateless people of all nationalities who were already present in the country.

According to the latest available data from the Government of the Republic of Armenia, many of the new arrivals are vulnerable, including older people, women and children, pregnant women, people living with disabilities and people chronic health conditions, as well as new-borns. 52 per cent are women and girls, 31 per cent are children and 18 per cent are older persons. About half of the refugee population are from the countryside.

The refugees are currently located in different regions across Armenia, with the highest numbers residing in Yerevan (38 per cent), Syunik (16 per cent), Kotayk (8 per cent) and Ararat (7 per cent). Most refugees settle in areas where they have family, access to services and feel supported.

Refugees arrived physically and psychologically exhausted. They were hungry, in need of emergency assistance including counselling, warm clothes and medicine. The Government of the Republic of Armenia is leading the response to ensure protection and life-saving needs of refugees as well as ensuring medium- and longer-term planning. The Deputy Prime Minister is coordinating a working group composed of the various Line Ministries including the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Territorial Administration, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports, and Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs.

The host community response is characterized by a spirit of solidarity and unwavering generosity, with families and communities opening their doors to refugees. The local response, led by national and municipal authorities across the regions, has been equally remarkable, with volunteers, national and local nongovernmental organizations, and civil society actors coming together to support those in need.

At the same time, humanitarian partners including UN agencies, national and international NGOs and community-based organisations, under the overall leadership of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, scaled up their operations to complement the national response, through coordinated and inclusive interventions, to support urgent life-saving needs and the resilience of both the refugees and communities hosting them, with a particular focus on the approaching winter.

Refugee and Host Community Needs and Vulnerabilities

Refugees who have arrived in Armenia have acute protection and assistance needs due to their sudden displacement and prolonged isolation. This has had a profound impact not only on their ability to cope financially, but also emotionally. Most people arrived with very few belongings and require urgent emergency assistance, including food and water, blankets, bedding materials, medical assistance, mental health and psychosocial support, and shelter in the immediate term. With the upcoming winter, including possibly harsh weather conditions towards the end of 2023 and at the beginning of 2024, access to winter-specific assistance is particularly challenging for vulnerable groups, such as older persons, and persons with disabilities, as well as women and children. 52 percent of refugees are women and girls. In displacement situations, they may be exposed to heightened protection risks, such as gender-based violence (GBV), sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) and other forms of violence, trafficking, and labour exploitation. In addition, women often must care for children and other dependents on their own. Single mothers are particularly vulnerable to poverty. To ensure refugee women’s self-reliance, support in accessing the labour market is required. Additionally, basic assistance including protection services such as protection monitoring, child protection interventions, support to older persons and persons with disability, sexual and reproductive health services, are necessary.

Children constitute 31 percent of the total refugee population. Considering the nine-month closure of the Lachin corridor and the disrupted access to services during this period, children have had reduced access to food and medicine, and many arrived hungry, sick, and scared, having left their homes and communities very suddenly.

There are reports that their access to education during this period has also been interrupted, owing to limited access to food, electricity, water and other basic services at schools. There is a risk of disrupted access to immunization of young children during this period, which needs to be closely monitored and addressed urgently. Key needs include access to basic life-saving support and social services, including shelter, food, social protection, health, education and addressing their psychosocial needs through child-friendly spaces, mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) services, such as counselling, as well as prevention of any forms of violence, abuse and neglect. The best interests of the child should be a primary consideration in all actions affecting them.

Refugees are at risk of multidimensional poverty due to the many needs they are facing, especially those at heightened risk, including single women, female-headed households, children (including unaccompanied and separated children), persons with chronic health conditions as well as persons living with disabilities and HIV,
LGBTIQ+, and older persons. Thus, early identification of the most vulnerable and ensuring proper case management and support for inclusion in national systems from the onset is essential to restore refugees’ accessto basic services. They also require immediate livelihood recovery and access to toolsto support them towards self-reliance, access to decent work and enhanced economic security.

During government registration, initial intake assessments show that most refugees have concerns about access to safe and affordable housing, as well as their inability to pay rent and utility costs as a result of increased prices in Armenia. While government authorities have swiftly responded to provide shelter and housing to refugees in different regions, the number of refugees is expected to outnumber the available spaces in affordable/ social housing. The locations of some collective shelters may also pose challenges for access to employment and services. There is an urgent need to repair and rehabilitate existing social housing/ collective shelters and to identify additional, sustainable and affordable housing options in areas providing socio-economic inclusion prospects in close cooperation with municipalities. Targeted support to vulnerable populations to access services and appropriate accommodation is required. Host community members who have welcomed the refugees into their homes also need urgent support.

Refugees in general have access to the national health care system in Armenia. However, there is a need to bolster the health system to manage the sudden increase of health service recipients, including patients with specific needs and chronic conditions. Primary and secondary healthcare facilities, especially in rural areas are facing challenges to supply the necessary care, workforce, and medicines and provide specialized services. Specialized care is mostly concentrated in Yerevan, which will require putting in place adequate referral pathways and acute support to absorb the immediate influx of patients requiring care. The Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) needs of refugees are acute. The scale of the emergency and the added demand caused by the arrivalsrequire substantial scale up of services. It is essential to provide training on management of vicarious trauma or secondary traumatic stress to service providers. Access to quality maternal and child healthcare is of particular importance, including immunization of children. Other key areas of need include provision of specialized services for vulnerable children and caregivers who have suffered from trauma, as well as special care for children with chronic illness or with wounds that occurred during military hostilities, and who are now in post-operative recovery and living with disability.

Host communities / local population, friends and families across Armenia have welcomed and supported refugees, the majority of whom are in Yerevan, Syunik, and Kotayk regions. Their continued assistance to refugees will soon become a challenge for them as well as public authorities and national systems.

The rapid arrival of large numbers of refugees will strain existing social support services in some areas of the country. While refugees of working age will have greater levels of social mobility and move to different areas in search of sustainable livelihoods, it will be more difficult for vulnerable and less mobile groups of refugee households to meet their basic needs. In this context, there will be increased need to support the national authorities at all levels, including the municipal authorities throughout the country and especially in regions hosting large numbers of refugees to ensure optimal support and public services, parity and continuity in social protection schemes, and opportunities for livelihood and resilience.

According to an announcement from the interior ministry and civil defence, Cyprus will be sending monetary aid for over 100,000 refugees flooding going to Armenia, after violence broke out between Azerbaijan and forces in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Money will be sent by the state and anyone wanting to contribute through the European mechanism for civil protection.

Those wishing to contribute can send money to the following account:

ACCOUNT NAME HUMANITARIAN SUPPORT – ARMENIA

ACCOUNT NUMBER 6001034

The IBAN number is:

PAPER FORMAT CY47 0010 0001 0000 0000 0600 1034

ELECTRONIC FORMAT CY47001000010000000006001034

SWIFT BIC CBCYCY2NXXX

Collections points will be set up at all Red Cross locations in Cyprus as well as in municipalities across the island. Donations will start from Monday October 9 and collections will be made until October 13.

People wishing to donate are requested to bring: Dry foods (cereals, biscuits, rusks, pasta, and powder baby formula), personal hygiene products, and nappies for babies and adults.

The announcement said that all other items will not be accepted, and people are requested to only bring the items listed above.

https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/10/08/cyprus-to-collect-humanitarian-aid-for-armenian-refugees/

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has thrust the perennial debate of territorial sovereignty against self-determination into the global spotlight. Nagorno-Karabakh has always been internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, the military means employed to reclaim it starkly contrasts with the diplomatic and multilateral approaches traditionally advocated for resolving territorial disputes.

In particular, the international community’s acquiescence to Azerbaijan’s capture of the territory raises questions about what its attitude is likely to be in situations where the same tensions between territorial integrity and self-determination rise. 

Today, few countries recognize Taiwan as China’s legitimate representative, with most recognizing the People’s Republic of China. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province, with President Xi Jinping instructing his armed forces to be ready by 2027 to annex the self-governing island.

The US has maintained strategic ambiguity on whether it would intervene militarily if such an eventuality were to come to pass. President Joe Biden’s statements on the issue, which have seemed to suggest that the US would intervene, have almost always been dialed back by his staffers.